Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere

Resolving the 21st century temperature trends of the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere with satellite observations

Historically, observational information about atmospheric temperature has been limited due to a lack of suitable measurements. Recent advances in satellite observations provide new insight into the fine structure of the free atmosphere, with the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere comprising essential components of the climate system. This is a prerequisite for understanding the complex processes of this part of the atmosphere, which is also known to have a large impact on surface climate. With unprecedented resolution, latest climate observations reveal a dramatic warming of the atmosphere. The tropical upper troposphere has already warmed about 1 K during the first two decades of the 21st century. The tropospheric warming extends into the lower stratosphere in the tropics and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes, forming a prominent hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature trend structure. Together with seasonal trend patterns in the stratosphere, this indicates a possible change in stratospheric circulation.

The prognostic value of lncRNA AGAP2-AS1 in cancer patients: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

ArfGAP with GTPase domain, Ankyrin repeat and PH domain 2 Antisense 1 (AGAP2-AS1) is a promising long noncoding RNA that may possess prognostic value for different types of tumors. The objective of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the prognostic value of long noncoding RNA AGAP2-AS1 in cancer patients.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Medline, Web of Science, CNKI, Weipu, and Wanfang electronic databases were carried out in this meta-analysis. Synthetic hazard ratios (HRs) or odd ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained to determine the prognostic and clinicopathological significance of AGAP2-AS1 expression in tumors.

RESULTS

The final meta-analysis included 10 studies that contained 948 patients. The pooled results provided evidence that AGAP2-AS1 overexpression predicted reduced overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.49-2.09, P < .00001), disease-free survival (HR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.40-2.41, P < .0001), and progression-free survival (HR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.01-3.33, P = .04) and for various cancers. Additionally, the AGAP2-AS1 overexpression was concerned with lymph node metastasis (positive vs negative, OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.96-4.45, P < .00001), advanced tumor node metastasis stage (III/IV vs I/II, OR = 3.73, 95% CI: 2.71-5.13, P < .00001), and tumor size (larger vs smaller, OR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.24-4.18, P = .008). Besides, data from gene expression profiling interactive analysis dataset verified the results in our meta-analysis. The results showed that the expression level of AGAP2-AS1 was higher in most tumor tissues than in the corresponding normal tissues and was linked to poor OS and disease-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that AGAP2-AS1 overexpression was closely correlated with shorter OS in multiple cancer types, suggesting that AGAP2-AS1 might function as a promising predictor for clinical outcomes in cancer.

Review of climate change impacts on predicted river streamflow in tropical rivers

Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).

Projections of Alpine Snow-Cover in a High-Resolution Climate Simulation

The recent development of high-resolution climate models offers a promising approach in improving the simulation of precipitation, clouds and temperature. However, higher grid spacing is also a promising feature to improve the simulation of snow cover. In particular, it provides a refined representation of topography and allows for an explicit simulation of convective precipitation processes. In this study we analyze the snow cover in a set of decade-long high-resolution climate simulation with horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km over the greater Alpine region. Results are compared against observations and lower resolution models (12 and 50 km), which use parameterized convection. The simulations are integrated using the COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) model. The evaluation of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the simulation of present-day climate, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, against an observational dataset, reveals that the high-resolution simulation clearly outperforms simulations with grid spacing of 12 and 50 km. The latter simulations underestimate the cumulative amount of SWE over Switzerland over the whole annual cycle by 33% (12 km simulation) and 56% (50 km simulation) while the high-resolution simulation shows a spatially and temporally averaged difference of less than 1%. Scenario simulations driven by GCM MPI-ESM-LR (2081–2090 RCP8.5 vs. 1991–2000) reveal a strong decrease of SWE over the Alps, consistent with previous studies. Previous studies had found that the relative decrease becomes gradually smaller with elevation, but this finding was limited to low and intermediate altitudes (as a 12 km simulation resolves the topography up to 2500 m). In the current study we find that the height gradient reverses sign, and relative reductions in snow cover increases above 3000 m asl, where important parts of the cryosphere are present. In addition, the simulations project a transition from permanent to seasonal snow cover at high altitudes, with potentially important impacts to Alpine permafrost. This transition and the more pronounced decline of SWE emphasize the value of the higher grid spacing. Overall, we show that high-resolution climate models offer a promising approach in improving the simulation of snow cover in Alpine terrain.

The GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment: Overview and Introduction to Results and Recommendations

To date, a large variety of water vapour data records from satellite and reanalysis are available. It is key to understand the quality and uncertainty of these data records in order to fully exploit these records and to avoid data being employed incorrectly or misinterpreted. Therefore, it is important to inform users on accuracy and limitations of these data records based on consistent inter-comparisons carried out in the framework of international assessments. Addressing this challenge is the major objective of the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) water vapor assessment (G-VAP) which was initiated by the GEWEX Data and Assessments Panel (GDAP). Here, an overview of G-VAP objectives and an introduction to the results from G-VAP’s first phase are given. After this overview, a summary of available data records on water vapour and closely related variables and a short introduction to the utilized methods are presented. The results from inter-comparisons, homogeneity testing and inter-comparison of trend estimates, achieved within G-VAP’s first phase are summarized. The conclusions on future research directions for the wider community and for G-VAP’s next phase are outlined and recommendations have been formulated. For instance, a key recommendation is the need for recalibration and improved inter-calibration of radiance data records and subsequent reprocessing in order to increase stability and to provide uncertainty estimates. This need became evident from a general disagreement in trend estimates (e.g., trends in TCWV ranging from −1.51 ± 0.17 kg/m2/decade to 1.22 ± 0.16 kg/m2/decade) and the presence of break points on global and regional scale. It will be a future activity of G-VAP to reassess the stability of updated or new data records and to assess consistency, i.e., the closeness of data records given their uncertainty estimates.

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic "fingerprint" predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth's climate.

Long non-coding RNA XIST predicts worse prognosis in digestive system tumors: a systemic review and meta-analysis

Increasing studies are indicating that long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) X-inactive specific transcript (XIST) is associated with the prognosis of cancer patients. However, the results have been disputed. Therefore, we aimed to further explore the prognostic value and clinical significance of XIST in various types of cancers. Then, we focussed our research on the comparison of the predictive value of XIST between digestive system tumors and non-digestive system tumors. We performed a systematic search by looking up PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Medline (up to 3 January 2018). Fifteen studies which matched our inclusion criteria with a total of 920 patients for overall survival and 867 patients for clinicopathological characteristics were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (ORs) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated to summarize the effects. Our results suggested that high expression levels of XIST were associated with unfavorable overall survival in cancer patients (pooled HR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.45-2.26). Additionally, we found that XIST was more valuable in digestive system tumors (pooled HR = 2.24, 95% CI: 1.73-2.92) than in non-digestive system tumors (pooled HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.60-2.45). Furthermore, elevated expression levels of XIST were connected with distant metastasis and tumor stage. XIST was correlated with poor prognosis, which suggested that XIST might serve as a novel predictive biomarker for cancer patients, especially for patients of digestive system tumors.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Upper-tropospheric moistening in response to anthropogenic warming

Water vapor in the upper troposphere strongly regulates the strength of water-vapor feedback, which is the primary process for amplifying the response of the climate system to external radiative forcings. Monitoring changes in upper-tropospheric water vapor and scrutinizing the causes of such changes are therefore of great importance for establishing the credibility of model projections of past and future climates. Here, we use coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations under different climate-forcing scenarios to investigate satellite-observed changes in global-mean upper-tropospheric water vapor. Our analysis demonstrates that the upper-tropospheric moistening observed over the period 1979-2005 cannot be explained by natural causes and results principally from an anthropogenic warming of the climate. By attributing the observed increase directly to human activities, this study verifies the presence of the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying anthropogenic climate change.

Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions

Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35 degrees C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies.

Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present

Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling

Observations reveal that the substantial cooling of the global lower stratosphere over 1979-2003 occurred in two pronounced steplike transitions. These arose in the aftermath of two major volcanic eruptions, with each cooling transition being followed by a period of relatively steady temperatures. Climate model simulations indicate that the space-time structure of the observed cooling is largely attributable to the combined effect of changes in both anthropogenic factors (ozone depletion and increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases) and natural factors (solar irradiance variation and volcanic aerosols). The anthropogenic factors drove the overall cooling during the period, and the natural ones modulated the evolution of the cooling.

The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening

Climate models predict that the concentration of water vapor in the upper troposphere could double by the end of the century as a result of increases in greenhouse gases. Such moistening plays a key role in amplifying the rate at which the climate warms in response to anthropogenic activities, but has been difficult to detect because of deficiencies in conventional observing systems. We use satellite measurements to highlight a distinct radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening over the period 1982 to 2004. The observed moistening is accurately captured by climate model simulations and lends further credence to model projections of future global warming.

The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature

Satellite-based measurements of decadal-scale temperature change in the lower troposphere have indicated cooling relative to Earth's surface in the tropics. Such measurements need a diurnal correction to prevent drifts in the satellites' measurement time from causing spurious trends. We have derived a diurnal correction that, in the tropics, is of the opposite sign from that previously applied. When we use this correction in the calculation of lower tropospheric temperature from satellite microwave measurements, we find tropical warming consistent with that found at the surface and in our satellite-derived version of middle/upper tropospheric temperature.

Radiosonde Daytime Biases and Late-20th Century Warming

The temperature difference between adjacent 0000 and 1200 UTC weather balloon (radiosonde) reports shows a pervasive tendency toward cooler daytime compared to nighttime observations since the 1970s, especially at tropical stations. Several characteristics of this trend indicate that it is an artifact of systematic reductions over time in the uncorrected error due to daytime solar heating of the instrument and should be absent from accurate climate records. Although other problems may exist, this effect alone is of sufficient magnitude to reconcile radiosonde tropospheric temperature trends and surface trends during the late 20th century.