Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea-Air CO2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales

Chaotic intrinsic variability (CIV) emerges spontaneously from nonlinear ocean dynamics even without any atmospheric variability. Eddy-permitting numerical simulations suggest that CIV is a significant contributor to the interannual to decadal variability of physical properties. Here we show from an ensemble of global ocean eddy-permitting simulations that large-scale interannual CIV propagates from physical properties to sea-air CO2 fluxes in areas of high mesoscale eddy activity (e.g., Southern Ocean and western boundary currents). In these regions and at scales larger than 500 km (~5°), CIV contributes significantly to the interannual variability of sea-air CO2 fluxes. Between 35°S and 45°S (midlatitude Southern Ocean), CIV amounts to 23.76 TgC yr-1 or one half of the atmospherically forced variability. Locally, its contribution to the total interannual variance of sea-air CO2 fluxes exceeds 76%. Outside eddy-active regions its contribution to total interannual variability is below 16%.

Sensitivity of Modeled CO2 Air–Sea Flux in a Coastal Environment to Surface Temperature Gradients, Surfactants, and Satellite Data Assimilation

This work evaluates the sensitivity of CO2 air–sea gas exchange in a coastal site to four different model system configurations of the 1D coupled hydrodynamic–ecosystem model GOTM–ERSEM, towards identifying critical dynamics of relevance when specifically addressing quantification of air–sea CO2 exchange. The European Sea Regional Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is a biomass and functional group-based biogeochemical model that includes a comprehensive carbonate system and explicitly simulates the production of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon and organic matter. The model was implemented at the coastal station L4 (4 nm south of Plymouth, 50°15.00’N, 4°13.02’W, depth of 51 m). The model performance was evaluated using more than 1500 hydrological and biochemical observations routinely collected at L4 through the Western Coastal Observatory activities of 2008–2009. In addition to a reference simulation (A), we ran three distinct experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the carbonate system and modeled air–sea fluxes to (B) the sea-surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle and thus also the near-surface vertical gradients, (C) biological suppression of gas exchange and (D) data assimilation using satellite Earth observation data. The reference simulation captures well the physical environment (simulated SST has a correlation with observations equal to 0.94 with a p > 0.95). Overall, the model captures the seasonal signal in most biogeochemical variables including the air–sea flux of CO2 and primary production and can capture some of the intra-seasonal variability and short-lived blooms. The model correctly reproduces the seasonality of nutrients (correlation > 0.80 for silicate, nitrate and phosphate), surface chlorophyll-a (correlation > 0.43) and total biomass (correlation > 0.7) in a two year run for 2008–2009. The model simulates well the concentration of DIC, pH and in-water partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) with correlations between 0.4–0.5. The model result suggest that L4 is a weak net source of CO2 (0.3–1.8 molCm−2 year−1). The results of the three sensitivity experiments indicate that both resolving the temperature profile near the surface and assimilation of surface chlorophyll-a significantly impact the skill of simulating the biogeochemistry at L4 and all of the carbonate chemistry related variables. These results indicate that our forecasting ability of CO2 air–sea flux in shelf seas environments and their impact in climate modeling should consider both model refinements as means of reducing uncertainties and errors in any future climate projections.

CO2 Concentration, A Critical Factor Influencing the Relationship between Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Gross Primary Productivity

The uncertainty of carbon fluxes of the terrestrial ecosystem is the highest among all flux components, calling for more accurate and efficient means to monitor land sinks. Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a key index to estimate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux, which describes the total amount of organic carbon fixed by green plants through photosynthesis. In recent years, the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), which is a probe for vegetation photosynthesis and can quickly reflect the state of vegetation growth, emerges as a novel and promising proxy to estimate GPP. The launch of Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) further makes it possible to estimate GPP at a finer spatial resolution compared with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY). However, whether the relationship between GPP and SIF is linear or non-linear has always been controversial. In this research, we proposed a new model to estimate GPP using SIF and the atmospheric CO2 concentration from OCO-2 as critical driven factors simultaneously (SIF-CO2-GPP model). Evidences from all sites show that the introduction of the atmospheric CO2 concentration improves accuracies of estimated GPP. Compared with the SIF-CO2-GPP linear model, we found the SIF-GPP model overestimated GPP in summer and autumn but underestimated it in spring and winter. A series of simulation experiments based on SCOPE (Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy) was carried out to figure out the possible mechanism of improved estimates of GPP due to the introduction of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These experiments also demonstrate that there could be a non-linear relationship between SIF and GPP at half an hour timescale. Moreover, such relationships vary with CO2 concentration. As OCO-2 is capable of providing SIF and XCO2 products with identical spatial and temporal scales, the SIF-CO2-GPP linear model would be implemented conveniently to monitor GPP using remotely sensed data. With the help of OCO-3 and its successors, the proposed SIF-CO2-GPP linear model would play a significant role in monitoring GPP accurately in large geographical extents.

Asymmetric transfer of CO2 across a broken sea surface

Most estimates of the climatically-important transfer of atmospheric gases into, and out of, the ocean assume that the ocean surface is unbroken by breaking waves. However the trapping of bubbles of atmospheric gases in the ocean by breaking waves introduces an asymmetry in this flux. This asymmetry occurs as a bias towards injecting gas into the ocean where it dissolves, and against the evasion/exsolution of previously-dissolved gas coming out of solution from the oceans and eventually reaching the atmosphere. Here we use at-sea measurements and modelling of the bubble clouds beneath the ocean surface to show that the numbers of large bubbles found metres below the sea surface in high winds are sufficient to drive a large and asymmetric flux of carbon dioxide. Our results imply a much larger asymmetry for carbon dioxide than previously proposed. This asymmetry contradicts an assumption inherent in most existing estimates of ocean-atmosphere gas transfer. The geochemical and climate implications include an enhanced invasion of carbon dioxide into the stormy temperate and polar seas.

Episodic release of CO2 from the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean during the last 135 kyr

Antarctic ice cores document glacial-interglacial and millennial-scale variability in atmospheric pCO₂ over the past 800 kyr. The ocean, as the largest active carbon reservoir on this timescale, is thought to have played a dominant role in these pCO₂ fluctuations, but it remains unclear how and where in the ocean CO₂ was stored during glaciations and released during (de)glacial millennial-scale climate events. The evolution of surface ocean pCO₂ in key locations can therefore provide important clues for understanding the ocean's role in Pleistocene carbon cycling. Here we present a 135-kyr record of shallow subsurface pCO₂ and nutrient levels from the Norwegian Sea, an area of intense CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere today. Our results suggest that the Norwegian Sea probably acted as a CO₂ source towards the end of Heinrich stadials HS1, HS4 and HS11, and may have contributed to the increase in atmospheric pCO₂ at these times.

Glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO₂ remain unexplained. Here, the authors show that the Norwegian Sea, an modern area of intense CO₂ uptake, acted as a CO₂ source during the terminations of Heinrich stadials 1, 4 and 11, sometimes characterized by rapid increases in atmospheric pCO₂.

Collapse of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic CO2 sink in boreal spring of 2010

Following the 2009 Pacific El Niño, a warm event developed in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic during boreal spring of 2010 promoted a significant increase in the CO₂ fugacity of surface waters. This, together with the relaxation of the prevailing wind fields, resulted in the reversal of the atmospheric CO₂ absorption capacity of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. In the region 0-30°N, 62-10°W, this climatic event led to the reversal of the climatological CO₂ sink of -29.3 Tg C to a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere of 1.6 Tg C from February to May. The highest impact of this event is verified in the region of the North Equatorial Current, where the climatological CO₂ uptake of -22.4 Tg for that period ceased during 2010 (1.2 Tg C). This estimate is higher than current assessments of the multidecadal variability of the sea-air CO₂ exchange for the entire North Atlantic (20 Tg year^-1), and highlights the potential impact of the increasing occurrence of extreme climate events over the oceanic CO₂ sink and atmospheric CO₂ composition.

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

Slow science: the value of long ocean biogeochemistry records

Sustained observations (SOs) have provided invaluable information on the ocean's biology and biogeochemistry for over 50 years. They continue to play a vital role in elucidating the functioning of the marine ecosystem, particularly in the light of ongoing climate change. Repeated, consistent observations have provided the opportunity to resolve temporal and/or spatial variability in ocean biogeochemistry, which has driven exploration of the factors controlling biological parameters and processes. Here, I highlight some of the key breakthroughs in biological oceanography that have been enabled by SOs, which include areas such as trophic dynamics, understanding variability, improved biogeochemical models and the role of ocean biology in the global carbon cycle. In the near future, SOs are poised to make progress on several fronts, including detecting climate change effects on ocean biogeochemistry, high-resolution observations of physical-biological interactions and greater observational capability in both the mesopelagic zone and harsh environments, such as the Arctic. We are now entering a new era for biological SOs, one in which our motivations have evolved from the need to acquire basic understanding of the ocean's state and variability, to a need to understand ocean biogeochemistry in the context of increasing pressure in the form of climate change, overfishing and eutrophication.

Pressures on the marine environment and the changing climate of ocean biogeochemistry

The oceans are under pressure from human activities. Following 250 years of industrial activity, effects are being seen at the cellular through to regional and global scales. The change in atmospheric CO(2) from 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to 392 ppm in 2011 has contributed to the warming of the upper 700 m of the ocean by approximately 0.1°C between 1961 and 2003, to changes in sea water chemistry, which include a pH decrease of approximately 0.1, and to significant decreases in the sea water oxygen content. In parallel with these changes, the human population has been introducing an ever-increasing level of nutrients into coastal waters, which leads to eutrophication, and by 2008 had resulted in 245,000 km(2) of severely oxygen-depleted waters throughout the world. These changes are set to continue for the foreseeable future, with atmospheric CO(2) predicted to reach 430 ppm by 2030 and 750 ppm by 2100. The cycling of biogeochemical elements has proved sensitive to each of these effects, and it is proposed that synergy between stressors may compound this further. The challenge, within the next few decades, for the marine science community, is to elucidate the scope and extent that biological processes can adapt or acclimatize to a changing chemical and physical marine environment.

Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context

Fundamental changes to marine chemistry are occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the atmosphere. Ocean acidity (H(+) concentration) and bicarbonate ion concentrations are increasing, whereas carbonate ion concentrations are decreasing. There has already been an average pH decrease of 0.1 in the upper ocean, and continued unconstrained carbon emissions would further reduce average upper ocean pH by approximately 0.3 by 2100. Laboratory experiments, observations and projections indicate that such ocean acidification may have ecological and biogeochemical impacts that last for many thousands of years. The future magnitude of such effects will be very closely linked to atmospheric CO(2); they will, therefore, depend on the success of emission reduction, and could also be constrained by geoengineering based on most carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. However, some ocean-based CDR approaches would (if deployed on a climatically significant scale) re-locate acidification from the upper ocean to the seafloor or elsewhere in the ocean interior. If solar radiation management were to be the main policy response to counteract global warming, ocean acidification would continue to be driven by increases in atmospheric CO(2), although with additional temperature-related effects on CO(2) and CaCO(3) solubility and terrestrial carbon sequestration.

Broader perspectives for comparing different greenhouse gases

Over the last 20 years, different greenhouse gases have been compared, in the context of climate change, primarily through the concept of global warming potentials (GWPs). This considers the climate forcing caused by pulse emissions and integrated over a fixed time horizon. Recent studies have shown that uncertainties in GWP values are significantly larger than previously thought and, while past literature in this area has raised alternative means of comparison, there is not yet any clear alternative. We propose that a broader framework for comparing greenhouse gases has become necessary and that this cannot be addressed by using simple fixed exchange rates. From a policy perspective, the framework needs to be clearly aligned with the goal of climate stabilization, and we show that comparisons between gases can be better addressed in this context by the forcing equivalence index (FEI). From a science perspective, a framework for comparing greenhouse gases should also consider the full range of processes that affect atmospheric composition and how these may alter for climate stabilization at different levels. We cover a basis for a broader approach to comparing greenhouse gases by summarizing the uncertainties in GWPs, linking those to uncertainties in the FEIs consistent with stabilization, and then to a framework for addressing uncertainties in the corresponding biogeochemical processes.

Economic value of improved quantification in global sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

On average, about 45 per cent of global annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions remain in the atmosphere, while the remainder are taken up by carbon reservoirs on land and in the oceans-the CO(2) 'sinks'. As sink size and dynamics are highly variable in space and time, cross-verification of reported anthropogenic CO(2) emissions with atmospheric CO(2) measurements is challenging. Highly variable CO(2) sinks also limit the capability to detect anomolous changes in natural carbon reservoirs. This paper argues that significant uncertainty reduction in annual estimates of the global carbon balance could be achieved rapidly through coordinated up-scaling of existing methods, and that this uncertainty reduction would provide incentive for accurate reporting of CO(2) emissions at the country level. We estimate that if 5 per cent of global CO(2) emissions go unreported and undetected, the associated marginal economic impacts could reach approximately US$20 billion each year by 2050. The net present day value of these impacts aggregated until 2200, and discounted back to the present would have a mean value exceeding US$10 trillion. The costs of potential impacts of unreported emissions far outweigh the costs of enhancement of measurement infrastructure to reduce uncertainty in the global carbon balance.

Monitoring and interpreting the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2

The oceans are an important sink for anthropogenically produced CO(2), and on time scales longer than a century they will be the main repository for the CO(2) that humans are emitting. Our knowledge of how ocean uptake varies (regionally and temporally) and the processes that control it is currently observation-limited. Traditionally, and based on sparse observations and models at coarse resolution, ocean uptake has been thought to be relatively invariant. However, in the few places where we have enough observations to define the uptake over periods of many years or decades, it has been found to change substantially at basin scales, responding to indices of climate variability. We illustrate this for three well-studied regions: the equatorial Pacific, the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean, and the North Atlantic. A lesson to take from this is that ocean uptake is sensitive to climate (regionally, but presumably also globally). This reinforces the expectation that, as global climate changes in the future owing to human influences, ocean uptake of CO(2) will respond. To evaluate and give early warning of such carbon-climate feedbacks, it is important to track trends in both ocean and land sinks for CO(2). Recent coordinated observational programmes have shown that, by organization of an observing network, the atmosphere-ocean flux of CO(2) can, in principle, be accurately tracked at seasonal or better resolution, over at least the Northern Hemisphere oceans. This would provide a valuable constraint on both the ocean and (by difference) land vegetation sinks for atmospheric CO(2).