African Green Revolution needn't be a mirage

Poverty dynamics and the determining factors among East African smallholder farmers

CONTEXT

Rapid economic development in East Africa is matched by extremely dynamic smallholder livelihoods.

Objective

To quantify the changes in poverty of smallholder farmers, to evaluate the potential of farm and off-farm activities to alleviate poverty, and to evaluate the potential barriers to poverty alleviation.

METHODS

The analyses were based on a panel survey of 600 households undertaken in 2012 and re-visited approximately four years later in four sites in East Africa. The sites represented contrasting smallholder farming systems, linked to urban centres undergoing rapid economic and social change (Nairobi, Kampala, Kisumu, and Dar-es-Salaam). The surveys assessed farm management, farm productivity, livelihoods, and various measures of household welfare.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Almost two thirds of households rose above or fell below meaningful poverty thresholds - more than previously measured in this context - but overall poverty rates remained constant. Enhanced farm value production and off-farm income proved to be important mechanisms to rise out of poverty for households that were already resource-endowed. However, households in the poorest stratum in both panels appeared to be stuck in a poverty trap. They owned significantly fewer productive assets in the first panel compared to other groups (land and livestock), and these baseline assets were found to be positively correlated with farm income in the second panel survey. Equally these households were also found to be among the least educated, while education was found to be an important enabling factor for the generation of high value off-farm income.

SIGNIFICANCE

Rural development that aims to stimulate increases in farm produce value as a means to alleviate poverty are only viable for already resource-endowed households, as they have the capacity to enhance farm value production. Conversely, the alleviation of extreme poverty should focus on different means, perhaps cash transfers, or the development of more sophisticated social safety nets. Furthermore, while off-farm income presents another important mechanism for poverty alleviation in rural areas, these opportunities are restricted to those households that have had access to education. As more households turn to off-farm activities to supplement or replace their livelihoods, farming approaches will also change affecting the management of natural resources. These dynamics ought to be better understood to better manage land-use transitions.

Evaluation of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Measures for Sediment Yield in a Tropical Watershed in Thailand

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can potentially mitigate watershed degradation problems. In this study, various EbA measures were evaluated using a bio-physical model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in a small, forested watershed named Hui Ta Poe, in the northeastern region of Thailand. The developed watershed model was first used to investigate the effect of various degraded watersheds due to land-use changes on the sediment yield in the study area. The most degraded watershed produced an annual average sediment yield of 13.5 tons/ha. This degraded watershed was then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various EbA measures such as reforestation, contouring, filter strips, and grassed waterways in reducing the sediment yield. Under all individual and combined EbA scenarios analyzed, there was a significant reduction in sediment yield; however, the maximum reduction of 88% was achieved with a combined scenario of reforestation, grassed waterways, and filter strips. Reforestation alone was found to be the second-best option, which could reduce the sediment yield by 84%. Contouring alone was the least effective, with a reduction in sediment yield of only 23%. This study demonstrates the usefulness of implementing EbA measures for sediment management strategies to address watershed degradation, which is a severe problem across the globe.

Orphan crops: their importance and the urgency of improvement

Due to significant contributions of orphan crops in the economy of the developing world, scientific studies need to be promoted on these little researched but vital crops of smallholder farmers and consumers. Food security is the main challenge in the developing world, particularly in the least developed countries. Orphan crops play a vital role in the food security and livelihood of resource-poor farmers and consumers in these countries. Like major crops, there are members of all food types-cereals, legumes, vegetables and root and tuber crops, that are considered to be orphan crops. Despite their huge importance for present and future agriculture, orphan crops have generally received little attention by the global scientific community. Due to this, they produce inferior yields in terms of both quantity and quality. The major bottlenecks affecting the productivity of these crops are little or no selection of improved genetic traits, extreme environmental conditions and unfavorable policy. However, some orphan crops have recently received the attention of the global and national scientific community where advanced research and development initiatives have been launched. These initiatives which implement a variety of genetic and genomic tools targeted major constraints affecting productivity and/or nutritional quality of orphan crops. In this paper, some of these initiatives are briefly described. Here, I provide key suggestions to relevant stakeholders regarding improvement of orphan crops. Concerted efforts are urgently needed to advance the research and development of both the major and orphan crops so that food security will be achieved and ultimately the livelihood of the population will be improved.

DNA barcoding to promote social awareness and identity of neglected, underutilized plant species having valuable nutritional properties

It is estimated that about 7000 plant species and a large number of cultivars and varieties have been cultivated for consumption in human history. However, <0.5% of these currently provide the majority of human food energy needs worldwide (e.g., rice, wheat, maize, and potato). Global issues such as climate change, diffusion of pests, and resistance to agrochemical treatments are posing great concern about the sustainable cultivation of these major staples, especially in equatorial and tropical countries, such as Sub Saharan Africa. In addition, most of these regions contain malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, and the sum of such problems create serious implications at social, political, and economic levels. A possible solution relies on the exploitation of plant biodiversity and particularly on the so-called NUS (Neglected and Underutilized Species). These plants are traditionally grown in their centres of origin and continue to be maintained by sociocultural preferences, however they remain inadequately documented and neglected by formal research and conservation programs. Although they are important in terms of micronutrients and the ability to grow in harsh conditions, these species are falling into disuse due to agronomic, genetic, economic, and cultural reasons. To promote and spread their cultivation at the global scale, along with knowledge on their suitability for human nutrition, reliable identification systems are necessary to guarantee adequate authenticity along the entire supply chain and distribution network. A precise identification of the different species and their varieties is fundamental both to retrieve information on their origin and authenticate the raw materials (i.e., seeds, leaves and fruit) and related processed products that can be distributed at the local or global scale. DNA-based techniques can help achieve this mission. In particular, the DNA barcoding approach has gained a role of primary importance due to its universality and versatility. Here, we discuss the advantages in using DNA barcoding for the identification of some of the most representative NUS species, as well as their traceability and conservation of cultural practices around them.

Crop intensification, land use, and on-farm energy-use efficiency during the worldwide spread of the green revolution

We analyzed crop production, physical inputs, and land use at the country level to assess technological changes behind the threefold increase in global crop production from 1961 to 2014. We translated machinery, fuel, and fertilizer to embedded energy units that, when summed up, provided a measure of agricultural intensification (human subsidy per hectare) for crops in the 58 countries responsible for 95% of global production. Worldwide, there was a 137% increase in input use per hectare, reaching 13 EJ, or 2.6% of the world's primary energy supply, versus only a 10% increase in land use. Intensification was marked in Asia and Latin America, where input-use levels reached those that North America and Europe had in the earlier years of the period; the increase was more accentuated, irrespective of continent, for the 12 countries with mostly irrigated production. Half of the countries (28/58), mainly developed ones, had an average subsidy >5 GJ/ha/y (with fertilizers accounting for 27% in 1961 and 45% in 2014), with most of them (23/28) using about the same area or less than in 1961 (net land sparing of 31 Mha). Most of the remaining countries (24/30 with inputs <5 GJ/ha/y), mainly developing ones, increased their cropped area (net land extensification of 135 Mha). Overall, energy-use efficiency (crop output/inputs) followed a U-shaped trajectory starting at about 3 and finishing close to 4. The prospects of a more sustainable intensification are discussed, and the inadequacy of the land-sparing model expectation of protecting wilderness via intensified agriculture is highlighted.

Grain production versus resource and environmental costs: towards increasing sustainability of nutrient use in China

Over the past five decades, Chinese grain production has increased 4-fold, from 110 Mt in 1961 to 557 Mt in 2014, with less than 9% of the world's arable land feeding 22% of the world's population, indicating a substantial contribution to global food security. However, compared with developed economies, such as the USA and the European Union, more than half of the increased crop production in China can be attributed to a rapid increase in the consumption of chemicals, particularly fertilizers. Excessive fertilization has caused low nutrient use efficiency and high environmental costs in grain production. We analysed the key requirements underpinning increased sustainability of crop production in China, as follows: (i) enhance nutrient use efficiency and reduce nutrient losses by fertilizing roots not soil to maximize root/rhizosphere efficiency with innovative root zone nutrient management; (ii) improve crop productivity and resource use efficiency by matching the best agronomic management practices with crop improvement; and (iii) promote technology transfer of the root zone nutrient management to achieve the target of high yields and high efficiency with low environmental risks on a broad scale. Coordinating grain production and environmental protection by increasing the sustainability of nutrient use will be a key step in achieving sustainable crop production in Chinese agriculture.

Global Adoption of Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Challenges for the Public Sector

Advances in biotechnology continue to drive the development of a wide range of insect-protected, herbicide-tolerant, stress-tolerant, and nutritionally enhanced genetically modified (GM) crops, yet societal and public policy considerations may slow their commercialization. Such restrictions may disproportionately affect developing countries, as well as smaller entrepreneurial and public sector initiatives. The 2014 IUPAC International Congress of Pesticide Chemistry (San Francisco, CA, USA; August 2014) included a symposium on "Challenges Associated with Global Adoption of Agricultural Biotechnology" to review current obstacles in promoting GM crops. Challenges identified by symposium presenters included (i) poor public understanding of GM technology and the need for enhanced communication strategies, (ii) nonharmonized and prescriptive regulatory requirements, and (iii) limited experience with regulations and product development within some public sector programs. The need for holistic resistance management programs to enable the most effective use of insect-protected crops was also a point of emphasis. This paper provides details on the symposium discussion and provides background information that can be used in support of further adoption of beneficial GM crops. Overall, it emphasizes that global adoption of modern agricultural biotechnology has not only provided benefits to growers and consumers but has great potential to provide solutions to an increasing global population and diminishing agricultural land. This potential will be realized by continued scientific innovation, harmonized regulatory systems, and broader communication of the benefits of the high-yielding, disease-resistant, and nutritionally enhanced crops attainable through modern biotechnology.

Genetic diversity and genomic resources available for the small millet crops to accelerate a New Green Revolution

Small millets are nutrient-rich food sources traditionally grown and consumed by subsistence farmers in Asia and Africa. They include finger millet (Eleusine coracana), foxtail millet (Setaria italica), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum), proso millet (Panicum miliaceum), barnyard millet (Echinochloa spp.), and little millet (Panicum sumatrense). Local farmers value the small millets for their nutritional and health benefits, tolerance to extreme stress including drought, and ability to grow under low nutrient input conditions, ideal in an era of climate change and steadily depleting natural resources. Little scientific attention has been paid to these crops, hence they have been termed "orphan cereals." Despite this challenge, an advantageous quality of the small millets is that they continue to be grown in remote regions of the world which has preserved their biodiversity, providing breeders with unique alleles for crop improvement. The purpose of this review, first, is to highlight the diverse traits of each small millet species that are valued by farmers and consumers which hold potential for selection, improvement or mechanistic study. For each species, the germplasm, genetic and genomic resources available will then be described as potential tools to exploit this biodiversity. The review will conclude with noting current trends and gaps in the literature and make recommendations on how to better preserve and utilize diversity within these species to accelerate a New Green Revolution for subsistence farmers in Asia and Africa.

Genetic diversity and genomic resources available for the small millet crops to accelerate a New Green Revolution

Small millets are nutrient-rich food sources traditionally grown and consumed by subsistence farmers in Asia and Africa. They include finger millet (Eleusine coracana), foxtail millet (Setaria italica), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum), proso millet (Panicum miliaceum), barnyard millet (Echinochloa spp.), and little millet (Panicum sumatrense). Local farmers value the small millets for their nutritional and health benefits, tolerance to extreme stress including drought, and ability to grow under low nutrient input conditions, ideal in an era of climate change and steadily depleting natural resources. Little scientific attention has been paid to these crops, hence they have been termed "orphan cereals." Despite this challenge, an advantageous quality of the small millets is that they continue to be grown in remote regions of the world which has preserved their biodiversity, providing breeders with unique alleles for crop improvement. The purpose of this review, first, is to highlight the diverse traits of each small millet species that are valued by farmers and consumers which hold potential for selection, improvement or mechanistic study. For each species, the germplasm, genetic and genomic resources available will then be described as potential tools to exploit this biodiversity. The review will conclude with noting current trends and gaps in the literature and make recommendations on how to better preserve and utilize diversity within these species to accelerate a New Green Revolution for subsistence farmers in Asia and Africa.

Ethnolinguistic structuring of sorghum genetic diversity in Africa and the role of local seed systems

Sorghum is a drought-tolerant crop with a vital role in the livelihoods of millions of people in marginal areas. We examined genetic structure in this diverse crop in Africa. On the continent-wide scale, we identified three major sorghum populations (Central, Southern, and Northern) that are associated with the distribution of ethnolinguistic groups on the continent. The codistribution of the Central sorghum population and the Nilo-Saharan language family supports a proposed hypothesis about a close and causal relationship between the distribution of sorghum and languages in the region between the Chari and the Nile rivers. The Southern sorghum population is associated with the Bantu languages of the Niger-Congo language family, in agreement with the farming-language codispersal hypothesis as it has been related to the Bantu expansion. The Northern sorghum population is distributed across early Niger-Congo and Afro-Asiatic language family areas with dry agroclimatic conditions. At a finer geographic scale, the genetic substructure within the Central sorghum population is associated with language-group expansions within the Nilo-Saharan language family. A case study of the seed system of the Pari people, a Western-Nilotic ethnolinguistic group, provides a window into the social and cultural factors involved in generating and maintaining the continent-wide diversity patterns. The age-grade system, a cultural institution important for the expansive success of this ethnolinguistic group in the past, plays a central role in the management of sorghum landraces and continues to underpin the resilience of their traditional seed system.

Modern maize varieties going local in the semi-arid zone in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Maize is the most produced crop in Sub-Saharan Africa, but yields are low and climate change is projected to further constrain smallholder production. The current efforts to breed and disseminate new high yielding and climate ready maize varieties are implemented through the formal seed system; the chain of public and private sector activities and institutions that produce and release certified seeds. These efforts are taking place in contexts currently dominated by informal seed systems; local and informal seed management and exchange channels with a long history of adapting crops to local conditions. We here present a case study of the genetic effects of both formal and informal seed management from the semi-arid zone in Tanzania.

RESULTS

Two open pollinated varieties (OPVs), Staha and TMV1, first released by the formal seed system in the 1980s are cultivated on two-thirds of the maize fields among the surveyed households. Farmer-recycling of improved varieties and seed selection are common on-farm seed management practices. Drought tolerance and high yield are the most important characteristics reported as reason for cultivating the current varieties as well as the most important criteria for farmers' seed selection. Bayesian cluster analysis, PCA and FST analyses based on 131 SNPs clearly distinguish between the two OPVs, and despite considerable heterogeneity between and within seed lots, there is insignificant differentiation between breeder's seeds and commercial seeds in both OPVs. Genetic separation increases as the formal system varieties enter the informal system and both hybridization with unrelated varieties and directional selection probably play a role in the differentiation. Using a Bayesian association approach we identify three loci putatively under selection in the informal seed system.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the formal seed system in the study area distributes seed lots that are true to type. We suggest that hybridization and directional selection differentiate farmer recycled seed lots from the original varieties and potentially lead to beneficial creolization. Access to drought tolerant OPVs in combination with farmer seed selection is likely to enhance seed system security and farmers' adaptive capacity in the face of climate change.

African Lessons on Climate Change Risks for Agriculture

Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.

Affordable nutrient solutions for improved food security as evidenced by crop trials

The continuing depletion of nutrients from agricultural soils in Sub-Saharan African is accompanied by a lack of substantial progress in crop yield improvement. In this paper we investigate yield gaps for corn under two scenarios: a micro-dosing scenario with marginal increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) of 10 kg ha⁻¹ and a larger yet still conservative scenario with proposed N and P applications of 80 and 20 kg ha⁻¹ respectively. The yield gaps are calculated from a database of historical FAO crop fertilizer trials at 1358 locations for Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our approach allows connecting experimental field scale data with continental policy recommendations. Two critical findings emerged from the analysis. The first is the degree to which P limits increases in corn yields. For example, under a micro-dosing scenario, in Africa, the addition of small amounts of N alone resulted in mean yield increases of 8% while the addition of only P increased mean yields by 26%, with implications for designing better balanced fertilizer distribution schemes. The second finding was the relatively large amount of yield increase possible for a small, yet affordable amount of fertilizer application. Using African and South American fertilizer prices we show that the level of investment needed to achieve these results is considerably less than 1% of Agricultural GDP for both a micro-dosing scenario and for the scenario involving higher yet still conservative fertilizer application rates. In the latter scenario realistic mean yield increases ranged between 28 to 85% in South America and 71 to 190% in Africa (mean plus one standard deviation). External investment in this low technology solution has the potential to kick start development and could complement other interventions such as better crop varieties and improved economic instruments to support farmers.

Re-orienting crop improvement for the changing climatic conditions of the 21st century

A 70% increase in food production is required over the next four decades to feed an ever-increasing population. The inherent difficulties in achieving this unprecedented increase are exacerbated by the yield-depressing consequences of climate change and variations and by the pressures on food supply by other competing demographic and socioeconomic demands. With the dwindling or stagnant agricultural land and water resources, the sought-after increases will therefore be attained mainly through the enhancement of crop productivity under eco-efficient crop production systems. ‘Smart’ crop varieties that yield more with fewer inputs will be pivotal to success. Plant breeding must be re-oriented in order to generate these ‘smart’ crop varieties. This paper highlights some of the scientific and technological tools that ought to be the staple of all breeding programs. We also make the case that plant breeding must be enabled by adequate policies, including those that spur innovation and investments. To arrest and reverse the worrisome trend of declining capacities for crop improvement, a new generation of plant breeders must also be trained. Equally important, winning partnerships, including public-private sector synergies, are needed for 21st century plant breeding to bear fruits. We also urge the adoption of the continuum approach to the management of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture as means to improved cohesion of the components of its value chain. Compellingly also, the National Agricultural Research and Extension System of developing countries require comprehensive overhauling and strengthening as crop improvement and other interventions require a sustained platform to be effective. The development of a suite of actionable policy interventions to be packaged for assisting countries in developing result-oriented breeding programs is also called for.

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from ∼2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Multisector intervention to accelerate reductions in child stunting: an observational study from 9 sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, ~ 40% of children <5 y old are stunted, with levels that have remained largely unchanged over the past 2 decades. Although the complex determinants of undernutrition are well recognized, few studies have evaluated strategies that combine nutrition-specific, health-based approaches with food system- and livelihood-based interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We examined changes in childhood stunting and its determinants after 3 y of exposure to an integrated, multisector intervention and compared these changes with national trends.

DESIGN

A prospective observational trial was conducted across rural sites in 9 sub-Saharan African countries with baseline levels of childhood stunting >20%. A stratified random sample of households and resident children <2 y old from villages exposed to the program were enrolled in the study. Main outcome measures included principal determinants of undernutrition and childhood stunting, which was defined as a height-for-age z score less than -2. National trends in stunting were generated from demographic and health surveys.

RESULTS

Three years after the start of the program in 2005-2006, consistent improvements were observed in household food security and diet diversity, whereas coverage with child care and disease-control interventions improved for most outcomes. The prevalence of stunting in children <2 y old at year 3 of the program (2008-2009) was 43% lower (adjusted OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.83) than at baseline. The average national stunting prevalence for the countries included in the study had remained largely unchanged over the past 2 decades.

CONCLUSION

These findings provide encouraging evidence that a package of multisector interventions has the potential to produce reductions in childhood stunting.

Integrated soil-crop system management for food security

China and other rapidly developing economies face the dual challenge of substantially increasing yields of cereal grains while at the same time reducing the very substantial environmental impacts of intensive agriculture. We used a model-driven integrated soil-crop system management approach to develop a maize production system that achieved mean maize yields of 13.0 t ha(-1) on 66 on-farm experimental plots--nearly twice the yield of current farmers' practices--with no increase in N fertilizer use. Such integrated soil-crop system management systems represent a priority for agricultural research and implementation, especially in rapidly growing economies.