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Watanabe M, Kang SM, Collins M, Hwang YT, McGregor S, Stuecker MF. Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern. Nature 2024; 630:315-324. [PMID: 38867130 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07452-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/14/2024]
Abstract
Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and regional climate impacts. Therefore, elucidating the drivers of the pattern is critically important for reducing uncertainties in future projections. However, the causes of observed changes over recent decades, an enhancement of the zonal SST contrast coupled with a strengthening of the Walker circulation, are still debated. Here we focus on the role of external forcing and review existing mechanisms of the forced response categorized as either an energy perspective that adopts global and hemispheric energy budget constraints or a dynamical perspective that examines the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes. We then discuss their collective and relative contributions to the past and future SST pattern changes and propose a narrative that reconciles them. Although definitive evidence is not yet available, our assessment suggests that the zonal SST contrast has been dominated by strengthening mechanisms in the past, but will shift towards being dominated by weakening mechanisms in the future. Finally, we present opportunities to resolve the model-observations discrepancy regarding the recent trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masahiro Watanabe
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan.
| | - Sarah M Kang
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Matthew Collins
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Yen-Ting Hwang
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shayne McGregor
- School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Malte F Stuecker
- Department of Oceanography & International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
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Wang C, Xie SP, Carton JA. A Global Survey of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate Variability. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2013. [DOI: 10.1029/147gm01] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/19/2023]
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3
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Zheng Y, Lin JL, Shinoda T. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Upper ocean heat budget and feedback analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jc007746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Zhang W, Li J, Zhao X. Sea surface temperature cooling mode in the Pacific cold tongue. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jc006501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Sengupta D, Parampil SR, Bhat GS, Murty VSN, Ramesh Babu V, Sudhakar T, Premkumar K, Pradhan Y. Warm pool thermodynamics from the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jc004623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Su H, Jiang JH, Gu Y, Neelin JD, Kahn BH, Feldman D, Yung YL, Waters JW, Livesey NJ, Santee ML, Read WG. Variations of tropical upper tropospheric clouds with sea surface temperature and implications for radiative effects. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Danesh A, Davies MC, Hinder SJ, Roberts CJ, Tendler SJ, Williams PM, Wilkins MJ. Surface characterization of aspirin crystal planes by dynamic chemical force microscopy. Anal Chem 2000; 72:3419-22. [PMID: 10952521 DOI: 10.1021/ac991498u] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Tapping mode (TM) atomic force microscopy (AFM) has been applied in a novel fashion to characterize and distinguish the (001) and (100) surfaces of individual aspirin crystals. The surface characterization was achieved by amplitude-phase, distance (a-p,d) measurements employing gold-coated AFM probes functionalized with self-assembled monolayers (SAM). Experiments using model probes coated with -CH3 and -COOH terminated SAMs have been performed on the two aspirin crystal planes (001) and (100). Results indicate that the hydrophobic -CH3 terminated AFM probes had a greater degree of interaction with the crystal plane (001), whereas the -COOH terminated AFM probes had a larger interaction with the crystal plane (100). Interpretation of these data, based upon the chemistries of the probes, correlates with current understanding of the crystal surface chemistry derived from X-ray diffraction data and dissolution rate studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Danesh
- Laboratory of Biophysics and Surface Analysis, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Nottingham, UK
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Clement AC, Cane M. A Role for the tropical Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere system on Milankovitch and millennial timescales. Part I: A Modeling study of tropical Pacific variability. MECHANISMS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AT MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/gm112p0363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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9
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Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/97jc01736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1155] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC, Jin FF, Wakata Y, Yamagata T, Zebiak SE. ENSO theory. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/97jc03424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 748] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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11
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Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1998. [DOI: 10.1029/97jc02719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2094] [Impact Index Per Article: 80.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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12
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Cane MA, Clement AC, Kaplan A, Kushnir Y, Pozdnyakov D, Seager R, Zebiak SE, Murtugudde R. Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends. Science 1997; 275:957-60. [PMID: 9020074 DOI: 10.1126/science.275.5302.957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
An analysis of historical sea surface temperatures provides evidence for global warming since 1900, in line with land-based analyses of global temperature trends, and also shows that over the same period, the eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient strengthened. Recent theoretical studies have predicted such a pattern as a response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to an exogenous heating of the tropical atmosphere. This pattern, however, is not reproduced by the complex ocean-atmosphere circulation models currently used to simulate the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases. Its presence is likely to lessen the mean 20th-century global temperature change in model simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- MA Cane
- M. A. Cane, A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA. R. Murtugudde, Universities Space Research Association, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
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Jin FF. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, the Pacific Cold Tongue, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science 1996. [DOI: 10.1126/science.274.5284.76] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- F.-F. Jin
- Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
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