Diploid versus haploid models of neutral speciation

Neutral models of speciation based on isolation by distance and assortative mating, termed topopatric, have shown to be successful in describing abundance distributions and species-area relationships. Previous works have considered this type of process in the context of haploid genomes. Here we discuss the implementation of two schemes of dominance to analyze the effects of diploidy: a complete dominance model in which one allele dominates over the other and a perfect codominant model in which heterozygous genotypes give rise to a third phenotype. In the case of complete dominance, we observe that speciation requires stronger spatial inbreeding in comparison to the haploid model. For perfect codominance, instead, speciation demands stronger genetic assortativeness. Nevertheless, once speciation is established, the three models predict the same abundance distributions even at the quantitative level, revealing the robustness of the original mechanism to describe biodiversity features.

Frequency-dependent selection predicts patterns of radiations and biodiversity

Most empirical studies support a decline in speciation rates through time, although evidence for constant speciation rates also exists. Declining rates have been explained by invoking pre-existing niches, whereas constant rates have been attributed to non-adaptive processes such as sexual selection and mutation. Trends in speciation rate and the processes underlying it remain unclear, representing a critical information gap in understanding patterns of global diversity. Here we show that the temporal trend in the speciation rate can also be explained by frequency-dependent selection. We construct a frequency-dependent and DNA sequence-based model of speciation. We compare our model to empirical diversity patterns observed for cichlid fish and Darwin's finches, two classic systems for which speciation rates and richness data exist. Negative frequency-dependent selection predicts well both the declining speciation rate found in cichlid fish and explains their species richness. For groups like the Darwin's finches, in which speciation rates are constant and diversity is lower, speciation rate is better explained by a model without frequency-dependent selection. Our analysis shows that differences in diversity may be driven by incipient species abundance with frequency-dependent selection. Our results demonstrate that genetic-distance-based speciation and frequency-dependent selection are sufficient to explain the high diversity observed in natural systems and, importantly, predict decay through time in speciation rate in the absence of pre-existing niches.

Ecological opportunity, or filling a pre-existing unoccupied adaptive zone, is considered the dominant mechanism explaining the initial explosion of diversity. Although this type of niche filling can explain rates of diversification in some lineages, it is not sufficient for a radiation to occur. Instead of attributing the propensity to have an explosion of new species to external influences like niche availability, an alternative hypothesis can be based in frequency-dependent selection driven by the ecology in which organisms are embedded or endogenous sources mediated by gametes during fertilization. We show that genome diversification driven by higher reproductive probability of rare genotypes generates rapid initial speciation followed by a plateau with very low speciation rates, as shown by most empirical data. The absence of advantage of rare genotypes generates speciation events at constant rates. We predict decline over time and constant speciation rate in the cichlids and Darwin's finches, respectively, thus providing an alternative hypothesis for the origin of radiations and biodiversity in the absence of pre-existing niche filling. In addition to predicting observed temporal trends in diversification, our analysis also highlights new mechanistic models of evolutionary biodiversity dynamics that may become suitable to generate neutral models for testing observed patterns in speciation rates and species diversity.

Global patterns of speciation and diversity

In recent years, strikingly consistent patterns of biodiversity have been identified over space, time, organism type and geographical region. A neutral theory (assuming no environmental selection or organismal interactions) has been shown to predict many patterns of ecological biodiversity. This theory is based on a mechanism by which new species arise similarly to point mutations in a population without sexual reproduction. Here we report the simulation of populations with sexual reproduction, mutation and dispersal. We found simulated time dependence of speciation rates, species-area relationships and species abundance distributions consistent with the behaviours found in nature. From our results, we predict steady speciation rates, more species in one-dimensional environments than two-dimensional environments, three scaling regimes of species-area relationships and lognormal distributions of species abundance with an excess of rare species and a tail that may be approximated by Fisher's logarithmic series. These are consistent with dependences reported for, among others, global birds and flowering plants, marine invertebrate fossils, ray-finned fishes, British birds and moths, North American songbirds, mammal fossils from Kansas and Panamanian shrubs. Quantitative comparisons of specific cases are remarkably successful. Our biodiversity results provide additional evidence that species diversity arises without specific physical barriers. This is similar to heavy traffic flows, where traffic jams can form even without accidents or barriers.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

Rapid hybrid speciation in wild sunflowers

Hybrid or "recombinational" speciation refers to the origin of a new homoploid species via hybridization between chromosomally or genetically divergent parental species. Theory predicts that this mode of speciation is punctuated, but there has been little empirical evidence to support this claim. Here, we test the hypothesis of rapid hybrid speciation by estimating the sizes of parental species chromosomal blocks in Helianthus anomalus, a wild sunflower species derived via hybridization between H. annuus and H. petiolaris. Analysis of the frequency spectrum of parental species chromosomal blocks with respect to predictions based on R. A. Fisher's [Fisher, R. A. (1953) Heredity 8, 187-197] junctions approach, suggests that H. anomalus arose rapidly, probably in fewer than 60 generations. This result is corroborated by independent lines of evidence demonstrating (i) a significant concordance between the genomes of H. anomalus and early generation H. annuus x H. petiolaris synthetic hybrids, and (ii) a rapid recovery of pollen fertility in these synthetic hybrid lineages. These results are not only consistent with theory but also provide a new and general method for estimating the tempo of hybrid speciation and dating the origin of hybrid zones.