Response to Comment on "Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird"

Evaluating the persistence and utility of five wild Vitis species in the context of climate change

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) have the capacity to contribute novel traits to agriculture. Given climate change, these contributions may be especially vital for the persistence of perennial crops, because perennials are often clonally propagated and consequently do not evolve rapidly. By studying the landscape genomics of samples from five Vitis CWRs (V. arizonica, V. mustangensis, V. riparia, V. berlandieri and V. girdiana) in the context of projected climate change, we addressed two goals. The first was to assess the relative potential of different CWR accessions to persist in the face of climate change. By integrating species distribution models with adaptive genetic variation, additional genetic features such as genomic load and a phenotype (resistance to Pierce's Disease), we predicted that accessions from one species (V. mustangensis) are particularly well-suited to persist in future climates. The second goal was to identify which CWR accessions may contribute to bioclimatic adaptation for grapevine (V. vinifera) cultivation. To do so, we evaluated whether CWR accessions have the allelic capacity to persist if moved to locations where grapevines are cultivated in the United States. We identified six candidates from V. mustangensis and hypothesized that they may prove useful for contributing alleles that can mitigate climate impacts on viticulture. By identifying candidate germplasm, this study takes a conceptual step toward assessing the genomic and bioclimatic characteristics of CWRs.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

Global potential distribution prediction of Xanthium italicum based on Maxent model

Alien invasive plants pose a threat to global biodiversity and the cost of control continues to rise. Early detection and prediction of potential risk areas are essential to minimize ecological and socio-economic costs. In this study, the Maxent model was used to predict current and future climatic conditions to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive plant Xanthium italicum. The model consists of 366 occurrence records (10 repeats, 75% for calibration and 25% for verification) and 10 climate prediction variables. According to the model forecast, the distribution of X. italicum was expected to shrink in future climate scenarios with human intervention, which may be mainly caused by the rise in global average annual temperature. The ROC curve showed that the AUC values of the training set and the test set are 0.965 and 0.906, respectively, indicating that the prediction result of this model was excellent. The contribution rates of annual mean temperature, monthly mean diurnal temperature range, standard deviation of temperature seasonal change and annual average precipitation to the geographical distribution of X. italicum were 65.3%, 11.2%, 9.0%, and 7.7%, respectively, and the total contribution rate was 93.2%. These four variables are the dominant environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of X. italicum, and the influence of temperature is greater than that of precipitation. Through our study on the potential distribution prediction of X. italicum under the future climatic conditions, it has contribution for all countries to strengthen its monitoring, prevention and control, including early warning.

Prospects and limitations of genomic offset in conservation management

In nature conservation, there is keen interest in predicting how populations will respond to environmental changes such as climate change. These predictions can help determine whether a population can be self-sustaining under future alterations of its habitat or whether it may require human intervention such as protection, restoration, or assisted migration. An increasingly popular approach in this respect is the concept of genomic offset, which combines genomic and environmental data from different time points and/or locations to assess the degree of possible maladaptation to new environmental conditions. Here, we argue that the concept of genomic offset holds great potential, but an exploration of its risks and limitations is needed to use it for recommendations in conservation or assisted migration. After briefly describing the concept, we list important issues to consider (e.g., statistical frameworks, population genetic structure, migration, independent evidence) when using genomic offset or developing these methods further. We conclude that genomic offset is an area of development that still lacks some important features and should be used in combination with other approaches to inform conservation measures.

The dimensions of evolutionary potential in biological conservation

It is now well admitted by ecologists that the conservation of biodiversity should imply preserving the evolutionary processes that will permit its adaptation to ongoing and future environmental changes. This is attested by the ever-growing reference to the conservation of evolutionary potential in the scientific literature. The impression that one may have when reading papers is that conserving evolutionary potential can only be a good thing, whatever biological system is under scrutiny. However, different objectives, such as maintaining species richness versus ecosystem services, may express different, when not conflicting, underlying values attributed to biodiversity. For instance, biodiversity can be intrinsically valued, as worth it to be conserved per se, or it can be conserved as a means for human flourishing. Consequently, both the concept of evolutionary potential and the prescriptions derived from the commitment to conserve it remain problematic, due to a lack of explicit mention of the norms underlying different conservation visions. Here, we contend that those who advocate for the conservation of evolutionary potential should position their conception along four dimensions: what vehicles instantiate the evolutionary potential relevant to their normative commitment; what temporality is involved; how measurable evolutionary potential is, and what degree of human influence is tolerated. We need to address these dimensions if we are to determine why and when the maintenance of evolutionary potential is an appropriate target for the conservation of biodiversity.

Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize

Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.