Transformational ecology and climate change

Abrupt transformation of west Greenland lakes following compound climate extremes associated with atmospheric rivers

Arctic ecosystems are affected by accelerated warming as well as the intensification of the hydrologic cycle, yet understanding of the impacts of compound climate extremes (e.g., simultaneous extreme heat and rainfall) remains limited, despite their high potential to alter ecosystems. Here, we show that the aquatic ecosystems in historically arid west Greenland have undergone an ecological transformation after a series of atmospheric rivers that simultaneously produced record heat and rainfall hit the region in autumn 2022. We analyzed a unique, long-term lake dataset and found that compound climate extremes pushed Arctic lakes across a tipping point. As terrestrial-aquatic linkages were strengthened, lakes synchronously transformed from "blue" lakes with high transparency and low pelagic primary production to "brown" in less than a year, owing to a large influx of dissolved organic material and metals, with iron concentrations increasing by more than two orders of magnitude. The browning of lake waters reduced light penetration by 50% across lakes. The resulting light limitation altered plankton distributions and community structure, including a major reduction in prokaryotic diversity and an increase in algal groups capable of metabolizing organic carbon sources. As a result, lakes shifted from being summer carbon sinks to sources, with a >350% increase in carbon dioxide flux from lakes to the atmosphere. The remarkably rapid, coherent transformation of these Arctic ecosystems underscores the synergistic and unpredictable impacts of compound extreme events and the importance of their seasonal timing, especially in regions with negative moisture balance.

Panel-based assessment of ecosystem condition as a platform for adaptive and knowledge driven management

Ecosystems are subjected to increasing exposure to multiple anthropogenic drivers. This has led to the development of national and international accounting systems describing the condition of ecosystems, often based on few, highly aggregated indicators. Such accounting systems would benefit from a stronger theoretical and empirical underpinning of ecosystem dynamics. Operational tools for ecosystem management require understanding of natural ecosystem dynamics, consideration of uncertainty at all levels, means for quantifying driver-response relationships behind observed and anticipated future trajectories of change, and an efficient and transparent synthesis to inform knowledge-driven decision processes. There is hence a gap between highly aggregated indicator-based accounting tools and the need for explicit understanding and assessment of the links between multiple drivers and ecosystem condition as a foundation for informed and adaptive ecosystem management. We describe here an approach termed PAEC (Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition) for combining quantitative and qualitative elements of evidence and uncertainties into an integrated assessment of ecosystem condition at spatial scales relevant to management and monitoring. The PAEC protocol is founded on explicit predictions, termed phenomena, of how components of ecosystem structure and functions are changing as a result of acting drivers. The protocol tests these predictions with observations and combines these tests to assess the change in the condition of the ecosystem as a whole. PAEC includes explicit, quantitative or qualitative, assessments of uncertainty at different levels and integrates these in the final assessment. As proofs-of-concept we summarize the application of the PAEC protocol to a marine and a terrestrial ecosystem in Norway.

Global distribution and environmental correlates of marine bioturbation

The activities of marine sediment-dwelling invertebrates play a fundamental role in mediating major biogeochemical cycles and have profoundly shaped the evolution of marine systems. Yet there remains a paucity of global marine data describing bioturbation intensities and mixed layer depths and interrogating how these vary with multiple environmental and ecological factors at a system scale. We applied an ensemble of tree-based machine learning techniques to resolve a global map and determine the environmental and ecological correlates most closely associated with bioturbation. We find that bioturbation intensity and the depth of the sediment mixed layer each reflect different associations with a consortium of environmental and ecological parameters, and that bioturbation intensities are much more readily predicted than sediment mixed layer depths from these correlates. Furthermore, we find that the bioturbation intensity, the depth of the sediment mixed layer, and their environmental and ecological correlates differ between shallow marine and open-ocean settings. Our findings provide new insights into the importance of potential drivers of ancient sediment mixing recorded by geologic archives. These results also highlight that climate change may, in the near future, drive shifts in bioturbation and reciprocal fundamental changes in benthic functioning.

Building references for nature conservation

Conservation references have long been used in conservation biology to compare current biodiversity processes and states with past conditions. However, beyond the paucity of data for the construction of ancient, even prehuman, references, the relevance of these ancient references for studying ecosystems radically modified by human activities is questionable, particularly when the notions of conservation references and conservation objectives are confused and when several conservation ethics coexist that require distinct references. Because of this implicit heterogeneity in the nature of the references and their temporal baseline, conservation references not only have different meanings, but also deliver different messages. I propose establishing a common framework for conservation references to approach past biological systems and build comparable references between studies and projects. The selection of these references (distinct from conservation objectives) should be an early, explicit, standardized, and transparent milestone in any conservation process and these references should be based on state, pressure, or process dynamics, rather than fixed states. Finally, the importance of the diversity of temporal baselines used to build conservation references and to measure anthropogenic impacts should be recognized to understand the biodiversity crisis in its entirety.

Changing climate and reorganized species interactions modify community responses to climate variability

While an array of ecological mechanisms has been shown to stabilize natural community dynamics, how the effectiveness of these mechanisms-including both their direction (stabilizing vs. destabilizing) and strength-shifts under a changing climate remains unknown. Using a 35-y dataset (1985 to 2019) from a desert stream in central Arizona (USA), we found that as annual mean air temperature rose 1°C and annual mean precipitation reduced by 40% over the last two decades, macroinvertebrate communities experienced dramatic changes, from relatively stable states during the first 15 y of this study to wildly fluctuating states highly sensitive to climate variability in the last 10 y. Asynchronous species responses to climatic variability, the primary mechanism historically undergirding community stability, greatly weakened. The emerging climate regime-specifically, concurrent warming and prolonged multiyear drought-resulted in community-wide synchronous responses and reduced taxa richness. Diversity loss and new establishment of competitors reorganized species interactions. Unlike manipulative experiments that often suggest stabilizing roles of species interactions, we found that reorganized species interactions switched from stabilizing to destabilizing influences, further amplifying community fluctuations. Our study provides evidence of climate change-induced modifications of mechanisms underpinning long-term community stability, resulting in an overall destabilizing effect.

Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Climate drives coupled regime shifts across subtropical estuarine ecosystems

Ecological regime shifts are expected to increase this century as climate change propagates cascading effects across ecosystems with coupled elements. Here, we demonstrate that the climate-driven salt marsh-to-mangrove transition does not occur in isolation but is linked to lesser-known oyster reef-to-mangrove regime shifts through the provision of mangrove propagules. Using aerial imagery spanning 82 y, we found that 83% of oyster reefs without any initial mangrove cover fully converted to mangrove islands and that mean (± SD) time to conversion was 29.1 ± 9.6 y. In situ assessments of mangrove islands suggest substantial changes in ecosystem structure during conversion, while radiocarbon dates of underlying reef formation indicate that such transitions are abrupt relative to centuries-old reefs. Rapid transition occurred following release from freezes below the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) physiological tolerance limit (-7.3 °C) and after adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Additional nonclimate-mediated drivers of ecosystem change were also identified, including oyster reef exposure to wind-driven waves. Coupling of regime shifts arises from the growing supply of mangrove propagules from preceding and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Climate projections near the mangrove range limit on the Gulf coast of Florida suggest that regime shifts will begin to transform subtropical estuaries by 2070 if propagule supply keeps pace with predicted warming. Although it will become increasingly difficult to maintain extant oyster habitat with tropicalization, restoring oyster reefs in high-exposure settings or active removal of mangrove seedlings could slow the coupled impacts of climate change shown here.

Competitive release during fire succession influences ecological turnover in a small mammal community

Ecologists have long debated the relative importance of biotic interactions versus species-specific habitat preferences in shaping patterns of ecological dominance. In western North America, cycles of fire disturbance are marked by transitions between North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus), which predominate after wildfires, and southern red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi), which gradually replace deermice 3-4 years postfire and maintain dominance as forests mature. While this shift has been frequently documented, the processes that mediate this turnover are debated. One possibility is competitive release, which predicts a reduction in vole competition may contribute to niche expansion and population growth in deermice. Alternatively, turnover in both species may be shaped by differences in their preferred habitat and resource base, as predicted by optimum foraging theory. We evaluate these hypotheses using stable isotopes and spatial mark-recapture of deermouse and vole populations sampled prior to and following a fire as part of a longitudinal study in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Fire disturbance was associated with a 94% decrease in vole abundance but a 102% increase in deermice. Even after accounting for microhabitat, vole and deermouse populations were negatively correlated spatially and temporally (R = -0.45), and competitor abundance was more important prefire than postfire. When vole abundance was high (prefire), vole dietary niche space was seven times broader than that of deermice. Postfire, deermouse dietary niche nearly tripled and was enriched in ¹³ C (i.e., more C₄ plants), while voles occupied a slightly reduced dietary niche (79% of prefire breadth). Our results suggest deermice are experiencing ecological release due to a reduction in vole competition but vole shifts are largely driven by habitat preferences.

Post-disturbance reorganization of forest ecosystems in a changing world

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.

Estimation of Postfire Reforestation with SAR Polarimetry and NDVI Time Series

This communication is devoted to the methodology of remote complex analysis of forest restoration after strong wildfires. It is proposed to quantify the projective leaf/needles area index by multispectral optical images. The increase in dimensions of trunks and branches commensurate with a radar wavelength of 24 cm is estimated using radar polarimetric data. It is shown that the growth’s potential of aboveground biomass in different spots of test site ranges from 35 to 70% in the case under consideration. Such a new approach will make it possible to further consider more accurately the role of boreal forests as one of the largest carbon stocks.

Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for biological impact assessments and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative assessments. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate–ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop a more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.