Mild and moderate dyskaryosis: can women be selected for colposcopy on the basis of social criteria?

Defining the Longitudinal Risk of CIN 3+ for <CIN 2 Colposcopy for Patients Referred With High-Grade Cytology

OBJECTIVE

To determine the baseline and cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)3 and invasive cervical cancer in participants referred to colposcopy with high-grade cytology and

METHODS

The authors linked administrative databases including cytology, pathology, cancer registries, and physician billing history to identify participants referred to colposcopy between January 2012 and December 2013 with high-grade cytology (atypical squamous cells [ASC]-H, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL], invasive squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, atypical glandular cells [AGC], adenocarcinoma in situ) and had

RESULTS

Among 4,168 women referred to colposcopy for ASC-H, HSIL, squamous cell carcinoma, or adenocarcinoma, the 3- and 5-year CIN3 incidence rates were 17.7%/20.0% no biopsy, 13.0%/15.1% negative biopsy, and 18.9%/20.0% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) biopsies. The 3- and 5-year incidences of invasive cancer were: 1.25%/1.68% no biopsy, 0.78%/1.04% negative biopsy, and 0%/0% LSIL biopsy. When the initial cytology was AGC/adenocarcinoma in situ (n = 944), the 3- and 5-year rates of CIN3 were 7.42%/8.39% no biopsy, 7.41%/9.26% negative biopsy, and 7.69%/7.69% LSIL biopsy. The invasive cancer rates were 1.12%/1.54% no biopsy, 0.46%/0.46% negative biopsy, and 0.0%/0.0% LSIL biopsy. By screening cytology, participants referred for HSIL had the highest 3- and 5-year rates of CIN3 (18.9% and 21%) compared with AGC (7.22%/8.28%) and ASC-H (15.5%/18%). The 3- and 5-year invasive cancer rates were 1.38%/1.75% HSIL, 0.85%/1.17% AGC, and 0.91%/1.36% ASC-H.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants referred for high-grade cytology where colposcopy shows Collapse

Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Pregnancy
• Humans
• Female
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/diagnosis
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology
• Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/pathology
• Colposcopy
• Adenocarcinoma in Situ
• Uterine Cervical Dysplasia/pathology
• Atypical Squamous Cells of the Cervix/pathology
• Carcinoma, Squamous Cell
• Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions
• Carcinoma in Situ
• Vaginal Smears
• Papillomavirus Infections/diagnosis
• Papillomaviridae

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Grants Collapse

Affiliation(s)

Sabrina Piedimonte Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Kyle Tsang Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Nathaniel Jembere Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Joan Murphy Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of Toronto, Trillium Health Partners, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada
Tina Karapetian Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Julia Gao Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Bronwen McCurdy Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Jocelyn Sacco Cancer Prevention, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Rachel Kupets Division of Gynecologic Oncology, Sunnybrook Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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Standardized Digital Colposcopy with Dynamic Spectral Imaging for Conservative Patient Management

Background

Colposcopy is subjective and management of young patients with high-grade disease is challenging, as treatments may impair subsequent pregnancies and adversely affect obstetric outcomes. Conservative management of selected patients is becoming more popular amongst clinicians; however it requires accurate assessment and documentation. Novel adjunctive technologies for colposcopy could improve patient care and help individualize management decisions by introducing standardization, increasing sensitivity, and improving documentation.

Case

A nulliparous 27-year-old woman planning pregnancy underwent colposcopy following high-grade cytology. The colposcopic impression was of low-grade changes, whilst the Dynamic Spectral Imaging (DSI) map of the cervix suggested potential high-grade. A DSI-directed biopsy confirmed CIN2. At follow-up, both colposcopy and DSI were suggestive of low-grade disease only, and image comparison confirmed the absence of previously present acetowhite epithelium areas. Histology of the transformation zone following excisional treatment, as per patient's choice, showed no high-grade changes.

Conclusion

Digital colposcopy with DSI mapping helps standardize colposcopic examinations, increase diagnostic accuracy, and monitor cervical changes over time, improving patient care. When used for longitudinal tracking of disease and when it confirms a negative colposcopy, it can help towards avoiding overtreatment and hence decrease morbidity related to cervical excision.

The impact of the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme, 2003-13: a multimethod evaluation

BACKGROUND

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme supports research tailored to the needs of NHS decision-makers, patients and clinicians. This study reviewed the impact of the programme, from 2003 to 2013, on health, clinical practice, health policy, the economy and academia. It also considered how HTA could maintain and increase its impact.

METHODS

Interviews (n = 20): senior stakeholders from academia, policy-making organisations and the HTA programme. Bibliometric analysis: citation analysis of publications arising from HTA programme-funded research. Researchfish survey: electronic survey of all HTA grant holders. Payback case studies (n = 12): in-depth case studies of HTA programme-funded research.

RESULTS

We make the following observations about the impact, and routes to impact, of the HTA programme: it has had an impact on patients, primarily through changes in guidelines, but also directly (e.g. changing clinical practice); it has had an impact on UK health policy, through providing high-quality scientific evidence - its close relationships with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the National Screening Committee (NSC) contributed to the observed impact on health policy, although in some instances other organisations may better facilitate impact; HTA research is used outside the UK by other HTA organisations and systematic reviewers - the programme has an impact on HTA practice internationally as a leader in HTA research methods and the funding of HTA research; the work of the programme is of high academic quality - the Health Technology Assessment journal ensures that the vast majority of HTA programme-funded research is published in full, while the HTA programme still encourages publication in other peer-reviewed journals; academics agree that the programme has played an important role in building and retaining HTA research capacity in the UK; the HTA programme has played a role in increasing the focus on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in medicine - it has also contributed to increasingly positive attitudes towards HTA research both within the research community and the NHS; and the HTA focuses resources on research that is of value to patients and the UK NHS, which would not otherwise be funded (e.g. where there is no commercial incentive to undertake research). The programme should consider the following to maintain and increase its impact: providing targeted support for dissemination, focusing resources when important results are unlikely to be implemented by other stakeholders, particularly when findings challenge vested interests; maintaining close relationships with NICE and the NSC, but also considering other potential users of HTA research; maintaining flexibility and good relationships with researchers, giving particular consideration to the Technology Assessment Report (TAR) programme and the potential for learning between TAR centres; maintaining the academic quality of the work and the focus on NHS need; considering funding research on the short-term costs of the implementation of new health technologies; improving the monitoring and evaluation of whether or not patient and public involvement influences research; improve the transparency of the priority-setting process; and continuing to monitor the impact and value of the programme to inform its future scientific and administrative development.

A 5-year follow up of mildly dyskaryotic smears, comparing colposcopy with expectant management

The purpose of this study was to see if the National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme's guidelines were appropriate when they recommended that mildly dyskaryotic smears were repeated before referral for colposcopy. We identified all those with a mildly dyskaryotic smear, and followed them over 5 years, to compare those that had colposcopy and those that did not. In total, 269 women were followed and 35% of these only had the one mild smear. Of those whose smear returned to normal after the initial mild smear, 84% remained normal over the 5-year period. Of those whose smear did not return to normal, i.e. those that required a colposcopy, 74% returned to normal after the colposcopy.

Is this the end of the line for the moderate dyskaryotic smear?

OBJECTIVE

The British Society for Clinical Cytology has recently proposed that the terminology for cervical smear reporting is to be changed from a 3-tier system (mild, moderate, severe dyskaryosis) to a 2-tier system of low-grade and high-grade dyskaryosis. This modification eliminates the central category of moderate dyskaryosis which would be incorporated into the high-grade group. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of the moderate dyskaryotic smear in clinical practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of all women who were referred for colposcopy because of a moderate dyskaryotic smear was carried out for a 6-month period. Data collected included colposcopic impression, procedure performed and final histopathology. Two cytologists who were unaware of the original smear report were asked to reclassify these smears using the new 2-tier system. Their findings were compared with the documented colposcopic and histopathology results.

RESULTS

One hundred women with moderate dyskaryotic smears were referred for colposcopy during the study period. Most of these were reclassified as high-grade dyskaryosis using the new system. Fifty-six (72%) of the moderate dyskaryotic smears which were correctly regraded as high grade by cytologist 1 were found to have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 on final histopathology, whereas for cytologist 2, 66 (68%) were found to have high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

CONCLUSION

There is no clinical benefit in retaining the term moderate dyskaryosis. This study emphasizes the need for a uniform 2-tier system.

Outcome analysis of 4 years' follow-up of patients referred for colposcopy with one smear showing mild dyskaryosis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the 4-year outcome of patients after one smear showing mild dyskaryosis with respect to smear regression rate, prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and the effect of age.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with initial mildly dyskaryotic smear during the year 2000 with a follow-up period of 48 months. These women had not had any previous abnormal smears.

SETTINGS

Cytopathology Department and Colposcopy Unit, King's College Hospital, London, UK.

RESULTS

We identified 524 patients of whom 375 patients with complete follow-up data are included. The age range was 19-67 years with a median of 29 years. There were 207 patients aged 35 years or less (55%). At 6 months, 258 smears were performed and 47.8% of them were negative (95% CI: 41.6-54.0%). The total number of negative follow-up smears in the first year was 198 out of a total of 397 smears performed (50%). This proportion has significantly increased between 1 and 4 years' follow-up to 67.5% (RR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.14-1.35). Over the 4-year period, 791 smears were performed and 477 were negative (60.3%; 95% CI: 56.9-63.7%). Of the 477 negative smears there were only 61 smears (12.8%; 95% CI: 10-16%), in 54 patients (14%; 95% CI: 11-18%) that reverted back to low-grade cytological abnormality. In only one case the repeat smear showed high-grade abnormality after initial negative follow-up; however, on biopsy, histology showed CIN I. Out of the 375 patients, 70 required treatment with excisional biopsy (19%; 95% CI: 15.0-22.9%). Histology confirmed high-grade CIN in only 41 cases giving a prevalence of 11% (95% CI: 8.1-14.5%). There were no cases of microinvasive or invasive cancer detected. Age (< or =35 years versus >35 years) did not significantly affect either cytological or histological outcome.

CONCLUSION

Sixty per cent of follow-up smears after initial mild dyskaryosis subsequently became negative; of them 87.2% remained negative over the 4 year follow-up. Treatment was only required in 19% of patients, with 11% prevalence of high-grade CIN. Age did not affect the outcome. These results are reassuring and indicate that colposcopic referral may not be necessary after only one mildly dyskaryotic smear.

Prevalence of high-grade CIN following mild dyskaryotic smears in different age groups

OBJECTIVE

The new guidelines of the British Society of Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology suggest that women should be offered colposcopy after only one mildly dyskaryotic smear. This is expected to generate increased workload for the colposcopy clinics, at least in the short term. The main objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in women with mildly dyskaryotic smears and investigate whether there is any variation in different age groups. The rationale was to determine whether we could reduce the burden on colposcopy services by prioritizing the mild dyskaryotic referrals by age, as we hypothesized that high-grade CIN is less frequent in younger women.

METHODS

The study sample included all women who were referred for colposcopy with a cervical smear suggesting mild dyskaryosis (with or without koilocytosis) from April 2000 to March 2003.

RESULTS

We studied 510 women. They were divided into three age groups (<20, 20-25 and >25 years). The overall prevalence of high-grade CIN (CIN II and III) was 28.7%. The positive predictive value of a mildly dyskaryotic smear for high-grade CIN was similar in all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that we are not in a position to prioritize our referrals by age group and reduce the initial pressure for colposcopies. We are also concerned that with the implementation of the new guidelines, a significant number of women <25 years will be carrying high-grade CIN for more than 5 years before they are first screened.

Five-year follow-up of women with borderline and mildly dyskaryotic cervical smears

This study investigated the 5-year follow-up status of women with cervical smears showing borderline nuclear changes (BNC) or mild dyskaryosis and the effect of koilocytosis on the outcome. Thirteen per cent of women with cervical smears showing BNC had high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). In contrast, 28% of women with cervical smears showing mild dyskaryosis had high-grade CIN. The presence of koilocytosis (24% for borderline smears and 34% for mild dyskaryotic smears) did not appear to influence the risk of developing high-grade CIN. Our results suggest that the simultaneous implementation of the British Society for Clinical Cytology proposed terminology and the colposcopy guidelines from the British Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology could have an impact on colposcopy services.

Can the number of cigarettes smoked predict high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia among women with mildly abnormal cervical smears?

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether the number of cigarettes smoked by women who had mildly abnormal cytologic study results could identify those at risk for high-grade dysplasia.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective study of all women who were referred for colposcopy with a mildly abnormal cervical smear over a 4-year period. A detailed questionnaire was completed that evaluated sociodemographic characteristics including smoking history. Colposcopy then determined the degree of disease.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-three women were referred with a mildly abnormal cervical smear. There was a significant relationship between the numbers of cigarettes smoked and the risk of high grade disease (P = .007). Once the number of cigarettes smoked daily exceeded 20, the risk of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia was increased fivefold (odds ratio 5.85 [95% confidence interval 1.92 to 17.80]).

CONCLUSION

Cigarette smoking is associated with a dose-dependent increased risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 among women who have mildly abnormal cervical smears.

Can women at risk of cervical abnormality be identified?

OBJECTIVE

To determine if use of a detailed risk factor profile accurately predicts the presence of cytological abnormality of the cervix or improves the appropriateness of referral for colposcopic assessment when women are found to have these abnormalities.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Family planning clinic.

POPULATION

1219 consecutive women, aged between 15 and 19 years, attending for contraceptive advice. Variables included age, social class, educational status, hormonal and obstetric history, smoking and alcohol habits, history of sexually transmitted diseases, the age of first intercourse, number of sexual partners, duration of each relationship, frequency of intercourse, contraception used and the age of each partner.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Presence or absence of cytological abnormality and the presence or absence of histological abnormality in those with cytological abnormality referred for colposcopic assessment.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis confirmed many of the known associations of cervical abnormality. Discriminant analysis identified five independent significant predictors of cytological abnormality and four independent predictors of dyskaryotic cytology. At best models, derived from identified variables correctly predicted 10.1% of individuals with cytological abnormality and 13.5% of those with dyskaryotic cytology. Of those referred for colposcopic assessment because of abnormal cytology, models were able to predict 23.5% of those with histological evidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the availability of detailed information regarding the known correlates of cervical neoplasia in this age group, it was not possible to identify the majority of women with cervical abnormality. It is concluded that the strength of these associations is not sufficient to allow useful prediction of membership of a high risk group.

Comparison of the risks of cytologic surveillance of women with atypical cells or low-grade abnormalities on cervical smear: review of the literature

Minor cytological abnormalities--low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LGSIL) and atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS)--are the most frequent abnormalities observed in smears performed in screening for cervical cancer. Surveillance through repeated smears has been proposed as an alternative to immediate colposcopy to reduce cost and avoid overloading colposcopy clinics. The aim of this review is to discuss the advantages and inconveniences of cytological surveillance of women with ASCUS or LGSIL, as reported in the literature. Cervical smears are not sufficient to establish the precise diagnosis of a lesion. In fact, the mean prevalence of normal cervices, high-grade CINs and cancers is estimated to be 58%, 7% and 0.5% for ASCUS and 34%, 27% and 0.2% for LGSIL. Cytological surveillance shows that minor cytological abnormalities regress in 28-69% of cases. In 6-9%, cytological regression masks a high-grade CIN, and a cancer may develop sooner or later in 0.30-1.12% of cases. Cancers often occur in patients temporarily lost to surveillance or in those with normal smears alternating with smears showing minor abnormalities. Strict modalities of surveillance are therefore required. The surveillance has to be carried out with smears repeated every 4-6 months for 2 years. If all smears are normal the regular screening at 3-year intervals may be resumed. On the other hand, an immediate colposcopy is recommended if a new abnormality is observed in these consecutive smears, regardless of its severity and of the time elapsed since the initial abnormality was discovered. With these recommendations in mind, cytological surveillance may slightly reduce the number of colposcopies but without reducing significantly the cost. At present, no arguments based on cost or efficacy clearly favour cytological surveillance over immediate colposcopy.

The suitability of DNA cytometry for the prediction of the histological diagnosis in women with abnormal cervical smears

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the suitability of DNA cytometry for predicting the histological diagnosis in women with cervical dyskaryosis.

DESIGN

Survey with the use of diagnostic information to revise disease probability.

SETTING

Colposcopy clinic of a university hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

One hundred and ten women with two mildly or moderately dyskaryotic cervical smears and 98 women with one severely dyskaryotic smear.

INTERVENTIONS

DNA cytometric analysis using cytocentrifuge preparations of single cell suspensions from a cervical scrape. The main DNA cytometric parameter was N5C (i.e. the absolute number of cells with a DNA content of more than 5C on a given surface with a predefined cell density).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The probability of finding CIN II or worse. On arbitrary grounds, a positive test should point to a probability of 85% or higher.

RESULTS

In the patients with cervical neoplasia, the value of N5C increased significantly with an increasing CIN grade (P < 0.001). In the patients with one severely dyskaryotic smear and in those with two mildly or moderately dyskaryotic smears, the prior probability of finding CIN II or worse was 94% and 53%, respectively. Therefore, DNA cytometric analysis might be particularly useful in women with mild or moderate dyskaryosis; further analysis was restricted to this group. All of the women in whom the N5C value was higher than 52 were diagnosed as having CIN II or worse. Only 16 (14.5%) of the 110 women had an N5C value of 52 or higher. When the N5C value was 27, the probability of finding CIN II or worse was estimated to be 85%. Only 28 (25%) patients had an N5C value of 27 or higher.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA cytometry produced significant diagnostic information, as was shown by the relation between N5C and the histological diagnosis. However, the N5C value could not discriminate sufficiently between women with CIN II or worse and CIN I or better. Therefore, the management of individual patients with cytological abnormalities cannot be based on the results of DNA cytometric analysis.

Management of low grade lesions: follow-up or treat?

CIN has arbitrarily been divided into three categories (1, 2 and 3) and recently a revised classification of high and low grade lesions has been suggested. Whatever classification is used, there appears to be a high level of inter- and intraobserver variability in diagnosing the grade of CIN, particularly at the minor end of the spectrum. Punch biopsy diagnoses are undoubtedly associated with both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis of lesions, depending on the size of the lesion and the site of the worst colposcopic abnormality chosen for such investigation. The consensus is that high grade lesions should be treated once diagnosed. The dilemma of treatment of low grade lesions is more vexed and is hampered by the lack of reliable data on progression, persistence and regression rates. Local circumstances must be taken into consideration and if surveillance is not possible, then all cases of CIN should be treated. However, if women are prepared to undergo surveillance, this may be offered with certain safeguards. At present we would suggest treatment of those being observed if they continue to have an abnormality persisting for 2 years or if the lesion worsens in grade or size. It may be that the size of the lesion is of major importance in its progressive potential. The overall impact of screening programmes must be to do more good to the population than harm and the optimal management of low grade lesions is uncertain in this context.

Management of women with mild and moderate cervical dyskaryosis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the outcomes in women with mild and moderate dyskaryosis after increasing periods of surveillance and thereby to define a rational protocol for managing such women.

DESIGN

Prospective study with randomisation of women to one of four treatment groups, each with a different period of surveillance; one group in which the women were given immediate treatment and three other groups in which the women were under surveillance for six, 12, and 24 months.

SETTING

A dedicated colposcopy clinic in Aberdeen, Scotland.

SUBJECTS

902 women who presented with a mildly or moderately dyskaryotic smear for the first time.

INTERVENTIONS

Cytological and colposcopic examinations at intervals of six months until the allocated period of surveillance was completed, at which time biopsy was performed. Women with severe dyskaryosis were withdrawn from surveillance and a biopsy was performed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The histological findings after punch biopsy or large loop excision of the transformation zone, and the trends in cytological appearances of serial cervical smears.

RESULTS

793 women completed the study. In all, 769 women had an adequate final smear, of which 197 were normal cytologically, 328 were still mildly or moderately dyskaryotic, and 244 were severely dyskaryotic. Seventeen of the 67 (25%) women with one repeat smear showing non-dyskaryosis had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III compared with only one of the 31 (3%) women with no dyskaryosis in four repeat cervical smears (P < 0.0001). None of the women had invasive cancer. Of 158 women whose index smear showed mild dyskaryosis and who were allocated to the group under surveillance for two years, only 40 had not defaulted or still had dyskaryotic smears by the end of the two years.

CONCLUSION

Cytological surveillance, although safe, is not an efficient strategy for managing women with mildly abnormal smears. Women with any degree of dyskaryosis in a smear should be referred for colposcopy.

Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur.

DESIGN

(a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general's (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case.

SETTING

North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland).

SUBJECTS

Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991.

RESULTS

There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.