What India can learn from globally successful malaria elimination programmes

Malaria control - lessons learned from trends of Malaria indices over three decades in Karnataka, India

BACKGROUND

Karnataka is one of the largest states in India and has a wide range of geographical terrains, ecotypes, and prevalence of malaria. It experiences a voluminous influx and efflux of people across the state that affects the spread of malaria. The state deployed focused intervention measures keeping the national objective of malaria elimination as the foremost priority. This brought down malaria cases below a thousand by the year 2021. Furthermore, the state is motivated toward malaria elimination by 2025. This study analyzes the trends in malaria indices over the past three decades in the state and highlights the key intervention measures that impacted the reduction in the malaria burden.

METHODS

Data from 1991 to 2021 at the district level was collected from the archives of Regional Office for Health & Family Welfare (ROH&FW), Bangalore. Time-tend analysis on this data was conducted after categorization into three decades. Sequence plots were then plotted on the moving average of Annual Parasite Index for all those three decades. Generalized estimating equation model with Poisson distribution were used to evaluate difference in these indicators with pre and post interventions like LLIN, RDT with ACT and Guppy and Gambusia fishes.

RESULTS

Malaria burden across the state has consistently declined over the last three decades with few years of exception. This has coincided with the mortality also steadily declining from 2006 and culminating in zero malaria deaths reported from 2011 to 2019. Morbidity had drastically reduced from the hundred-thousand (1993-2003) to ten thousand (2004-2016) thousands (2017-2020) of cases in this period and less than thousand cases were reported by 2021. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) model revealed significant difference of incidence risk ratio of malaria incidence and deaths, post introduction of interventions like LLIN, RDT with ACT and Guppy and Gambusia fishes, indicating these three as important interventions for reducing the malaria burden. Time trend analysis revealed a linear decreasing trend in malaria cases during 2011-2021 decade.

CONCLUSIONS

A linear decreasing trend in malaria cases was observed during 2011-2021 decade. LLIN, RDT with ACT and Guppy and Gambusia fish's interventions significantly helped in reducing the state malaria burden.

Assessment of the Utility of Point-of-Care Testing Incorporating Ultrasound and Arterial Blood Gas in Patients with Acute Febrile Illness in the Emergency Department to Determine Disease Severity, Disposition, Need for Ventilation and Renal Replacement Therapy

Introduction

Acute febrile illness (AFI) patients present to the emergency department (ED), with fever to multi-organ dysfunction. There is a lack of early point-of-care-based disposition criteria in AFI patients regarding the need for intensive care unit (ICU) or high dependency unit (HDU) care.

Methods

We enrolled 100 patients with AFI presenting to the ED and evaluated using point-of-care ultrasound with two-dimensional echocardiography (ECHO), lung ultrasound score (LUS), renal arterial resistive index (RRI), and arterial blood gas. The need for ICU/HDU admission, ventilation (either noninvasive or invasive), and renal-replacement therapy (RRT) within 48 h of hospitalization was noted.

Results

Ninety-five patients were included in the analysis. 72 (75.8%) patients required either ICU or HDU admission, 45 (47.4%) required ventilatory support (either noninvasive or invasive), and 32 (33.7%) required RRT. After logistic regression, LUS ≥16, and arterial lactate ≥12 mg/dL were independent predictors of the need for ICU or HDU admission. The respiratory rate (RR) ≥28/minute, LUS ≥16 and RRI ≥61 were the independent predictors of the need for ventilation. The MAP ≤73 mmHg, LUS (≥16), and RRI (≥67) were the predictors of the need for RRT.

Conclusion

In AFI patients presenting to the ED, the MAP, LUS, and lactate are predictors of the need for ICU/HDU admission. The LUS and RRI were predictors of the need for RRT whereas the RR, LUS, and RRI were the predictors of the need for ventilation.

How can the complex epidemiology of malaria in India impact its elimination?

Malaria is a human health hazard in the tropical and subtropical zones of the globe and is poised to be eliminated by the year 2030. Despite a decrease in incidence in the past two decades, many endemic countries, including India, report cases regularly. The epidemiology of malaria in India is unique owing to several features of the Plasmodium parasites, Anopheles vectors, ecoepidemiological situations conducive to disease transmission, and susceptible humans living in rural and forested areas. Limitations in public health reach, and poor health-seeking behaviour of vulnerable populations living in hard-to-reach areas, add to the problem. We bring all of these factors together in a comprehensive framework and opine that, in spite of complexities, targeted elimination of malaria in India is achievable with planned programmatic approaches.

Tracking district-level performance in the context of achieving zero indigenous case status by 2027

India has committed to zero indigenous malaria cases by 2027 and elimination by 2030. Of 28 states and 8 union territories of India, eleven states were targeted to reach the elimination phase by 2020. However, state-level epidemiology indicates that several states of India may not be on the optimum track, and few goals set in National Framework for Malaria Elimination (NFME) for 2020 remain to be addressed. Therefore, tracking the current progress of malaria elimination in India at the district level, and identifying districts that are off track is important in understanding possible shortfalls to malaria elimination. Annual malaria case data from 2017-20 of 686 districts of India were obtained from the National Center for Vector-Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC) and analysed to evaluate the performance of districts to achieve zero case status by 2027. A district's performance was evaluated by calculating the annual percentage change in the total number of malaria cases for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 considering the previous year as a base year. The mean, median and maximum of these annual changes were then used to project the number of malaria cases in 2027. Based on these, districts were classified into four groups: 1) districts that are expected to reach zero case status by 2027, 2) districts that would achieve zero case status between 2028 and 2030, 3) districts that would arrive at zero case status after 2030, and 4) districts where malaria cases are on the rise. Analysis suggest, a cohort of fifteen districts require urgent modification or improvement in their malaria control strategies by identifying foci of infection and customizing interventions. They may also require new interventional tools that are being developed recently so that malaria case reduction over the years may be increased.

Plasmodium vivax: the potential obstacles it presents to malaria elimination and eradication

Initiatives to eradicate malaria have a good impact on P. falciparum malaria worldwide. P. vivax, however, still presents significant difficulties. This is due to its unique biological traits, which, in comparison to P. falciparum, pose serious challenges for malaria elimination approaches. P. vivax's numerous distinctive characteristics and its ability to live for weeks to years in liver cells in its hypnozoite form, which may elude the human immune system and blood-stage therapy and offer protection during mosquito-free seasons. Many malaria patients are not fully treated because of contraindications to primaquine use in pregnant and nursing women and are still vulnerable to P. vivax relapses, although there are medications that could radical cure P. vivax. Additionally, due to CYP2D6's highly variable genetic polymorphism, the pharmacokinetics of primaquine may be impacted. Due to their inability to metabolize PQ, some CYP2D6 polymorphism alleles can cause patients to not respond to treatment. Tafenoquine offers a radical treatment in a single dose that overcomes the potentially serious problem of poor adherence to daily primaquine. Despite this benefit, hemolysis of the early erythrocytes continues in individuals with G6PD deficiency until all susceptible cells have been eliminated. Field techniques such as microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) miss the large number of submicroscopic and/or asymptomatic infections brought on by reticulocyte tropism and the low parasitemia levels that accompany it. Moreover, P. vivax gametocytes grow more quickly and are much more prevalent in the bloodstream. P. vivax populations also have a great deal of genetic variation throughout their genome, which ensures evolutionary fitness and boosts adaptation potential. Furthermore, P. vivax fully develops in the mosquito faster than P. falciparum. These characteristics contribute to parasite reservoirs in the human population and facilitate faster transmission. Overall, no genuine chance of eradication is predicted in the next few years unless new tools for lowering malaria transmission are developed (i.e., malaria elimination and eradication). The challenging characteristics of P. vivax that impede the elimination and eradication of malaria are thus discussed in this article.

India could harness public-private partnerships to achieve malaria elimination

Public-private partnerships (PPP) have been beneficial in different sectors like infrastructure development and service sector across the world, including in India. Such partnerships in the healthcare sector have also been successful in providing access to affordable medical attention to all sections of society. These partnerships between public and private entities have proven to be beneficial in controlling malaria in high burden districts of India and taking these areas to the brink of elimination, thus setting examples to follow. The two successful ones are the Comprehensive Case Management Project (CCMP) in Odisha which is now adopted by the state, and the Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) which has nearly eliminated malaria from the highly endemic district of Mandla in Madhya Pradesh. Here we propose that non-government and semi-government actors may be given vital roles in the malaria elimination efforts till 2030 and beyond. These partners will add value to the national programme and may have the potential to develop and test different models of malaria elimination in real-life settings that the government programme can absorb sustainably.