Older doctors and progression through specialty training in the UK: a cohort analysis of General Medical Council data

Relationship between selection criteria and trainee performance in medical specialty training: A retrospective longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Investigation of tools used for candidate selection as predictors of future performance in medical education has been primarily undertaken within the undergraduate setting, but little is known about the selection to medical specialist programs. This retrospective longitudinal study aims to explore correlations between selection tools and the performance of trainees enrolled in the Australasian College of Dermatologists (ACD), the accredited specialist medical college for training in dermatology in Australia.

METHODS

Data were collected from consecutive cohorts of ACD trainees commencing from 2007 to 2015. Predictive variables were trainee demographics and selection tools (prior academic qualification; research experience; clinical experience; curriculum vitae [CV] rating; interview scores). The outcome variables were exam performance. First Year ([Pharmacology and Clinical Sciences] and Fellowship Exam [Written, Clinical, and Overall Score]). Statistical analyses included: descriptive statistics summaries; bivariate correlation of selection criteria and demographic data with exam performance; and linear regression analysis to identify predictors of exam performance.

RESULTS

Demographic analysis (N = 172) showed that 64% of trainees were female, the average age was 30.5 years (± 3.47) and trainees living in high socioeconomic status (SES) areas were over-represented. Using Pearson correlation analysis, interview scores were significantly positively correlated with First Year Pharmacology results (p = 0.018), Fellowship Written results (p = 0.002), and Fellowship Overall Scores (p = 0.006). First Year Pharmacology Exam performance was most highly correlated with Fellowship Exam performance (p = 0.000). No association was identified between exam performance and gender, SES, prior academic qualification, research experience or CV rating. Linear regression analysis showed that interview score (p = 0.012), entry age (p = 0.026) and First Year Pharmacology score (p = 0.002) were predictors of Fellowship exam performance.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the comprehensive selection tools used by ACD are effective, with interviews being a highly valid tool linked to exam performance. These findings have important practical implications for assessing the selection process in specialist dermatology training.

Differential attainment at MRCS according to gender, ethnicity, age and socioeconomic factors: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

A recent independent review on diversity and inclusivity highlighted concerns that barriers to surgical career progression exist for some groups of individuals and not others. Group-level differences in performance at the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons (MRCS) examinations have been identified but are yet to be investigated. We aimed to characterise the relationship between sociodemographic differences and performance at MRCS.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Secondary care.

Participants

All UK MRCS candidates attempting Part A (n = 5780) and Part B (n = 2600) between 2013 and 2019 with linked sociodemographic data in the UK Medical Education Database (https://www.ukmed.ac.uk).

Main outcome measures

Chi-square tests established univariate associations with MRCS performance. Multiple logistic regression identified independent predictors of success, adjusted for medical school performance.

Results

Statistically significant differences in MRCS pass rates were found according to gender, ethnicity, age, graduate status, educational background and socioeconomic status (all p < 0.05). After adjusting for prior academic attainment, being male (odds ratio [OR] 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.87–2.92) or a non-graduate (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.44–2.74) were independent predictors of MRCS Part A success and being a non-graduate (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15–2.71) and having attended a fee-paying school (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08–2.10) were independent predictors of Part B success. Black and minority ethnic groups were significantly less likely to pass MRCS Part B at their first attempt (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.18–0.92 for Black candidates and OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.35–0.69 for Asian candidates) compared to White candidates.

Conclusions

There is significant group-level differential attainment at MRCS, likely to represent the accumulation of privilege and disadvantage experienced by individuals throughout their education and training. Those leading surgical education now have a responsibility to identify and address the causes of these attainment differences.

Does performance at the intercollegiate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons (MRCS) examination vary according to UK medical school and course type? A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The knowledge, skills and behaviours required of new UK medical graduates are the same but how these are achieved differs given medical schools vary in their mission, curricula and pedagogy. Medical school differences seem to influence performance on postgraduate assessments. To date, the relationship between medical schools, course types and performance at the Membership of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons examination (MRCS) has not been investigated. Understanding this relationship is vital to achieving alignment across undergraduate and postgraduate training, learning and assessment values.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of UK medical graduates who attempted MRCS Part A (n=9730) and MRCS Part B (n=4645) between 2007 and 2017, using individual-level linked sociodemographic and prior academic attainment data from the UK Medical Education Database.

METHODS

We studied MRCS performance across all UK medical schools and examined relationships between potential predictors and MRCS performance using χ2 analysis. Multivariate logistic regression models identified independent predictors of MRCS success at first attempt.

RESULTS

MRCS pass rates differed significantly between individual medical schools (p<0.001) but not after adjusting for prior A-Level performance. Candidates from courses other than those described as problem-based learning (PBL) were 53% more likely to pass MRCS Part A (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.87) and 54% more likely to pass Part B (OR 1.54 (1.05 to 2.25)) at first attempt after adjusting for prior academic performance. Attending a Standard-Entry 5-year medicine programme, having no prior degree and attending a Russell Group university were independent predictors of MRCS success in regression models (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant differences in MRCS performance between medical schools. However, this variation is largely due to individual factors such as academic ability, rather than medical school factors. This study also highlights group level attainment differences that warrant further investigation to ensure equity within medical training.

Personal Characteristics Associated with Progression in Trauma and Orthopaedic Specialty Training: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

AIM

To identify demographic factors, including protected characteristics, and training specific factors which predict a nonstandard Annual Review of Competency Progression (ARCP) outcome during Trauma and Orthopedic Specialty training in the United Kingdom (UK).

METHOD

A longitudinal cohort study using data from UKMED was performed. ARCP outcome was the primary outcome measure. Multilevel univariate and multiple ordinal regression analyses were performed using STATA v 15.

RESULTS

Two thousand five hundred and ten Trauma and Orthopedic surgery trainees (ST3-ST8) with an ARCP outcome between 2010 and 2017 were included, comprising 11,011 ARCP outcomes. Eighty five percent (2130/2510) of trainees were male. Eighty two percent of outcomes were satisfactory. Female trainees had a 26% increased risk of nonstandard outcome (OR 1.26 95% CI 1.10-1.44) after adjusting for other factors. Older age at ARCP was associated with an increased risk of nonstandard ARCP outcome (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.03-1.06). International medical graduates had a 34% decreased risk of nonstandard outcome compared to UK graduates (OR 0.66 95% CI 0.54-0.81). Less than full time training was not associated with risk of a nonstandard ARCP outcome (OR 0.92 95% CI 0.76-1.12).

CONCLUSION

Female sex and older age at ARCP were significantly associated with nonstandard ARCP outcomes in Trauma and Orthopedic surgery, while international medical graduation was protective.

MRCS Performance by OMFS trainees: An update and call to action

Completion of the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination is a prerequisite for completion of specialty surgical training in UK. The aim of this study was to compare MRCS performance of OMFS trainees to trainees in other specialities over the past 13 years. Differential attainment (DA) was noted in MRCS Part A (MCQ) pass rates. There was no statistically significant difference in MRCS Part B pass rates. The reasons for this DA are currently unknown and require further investigation. It has been suggested that this may be due at least in part to competing time, family and financial obligations which increase over time.

Anxiety among newly-qualified doctors: An eight-year analysis

Background: Stressed and anxious doctors are more likely to make errors, take time off work and to leave medicine. This study aims to quantify the prevalence of anxiety among newly-qualified Foundation Year 1 doctors (FY1s), identify high risk groups and determine workplace factors associated with anxiety.Methods: We investigated self-reported anxiety among eight cohorts of FY1s between 2010 and 2017. Participants completed an online survey after their first week of work (n = 11,839), with a follow-up survey later in the year (n = 3502). Surveys included questions about the workplace and a validated screening tool for pathological anxiety.Results: Overall, a large proportion of doctors screened positive for pathological anxiety at the start of their FY1 year (27.3%) and after 4 months of work (21.0%). Year-on-year, we found a growing burden of anxiety at the start of FY1 (22.8% in 2010 vs. 29.6% in 2017, p < 0.01) and at follow-up. Anxiety was significantly higher among females (p < 0.01), those aged 21-25 (p < 0.05) and those who did not feel part of a team (p < 0.01).Conclusion: We found a growing burden of anxiety among FY1s associated with a perceived lack of support. We hope our findings will inform interventions to support newly-qualified doctors as they transition into the workplace.

Are there differences between those doctors who apply for a training post in Foundation Year 2 and those who take time out of the training pathway? A UK multicohort study

INTRODUCTION

Knowledge about the career decisions of doctors in relation to specialty (residency) training is essential in terms of UK workforce planning. However, little is known about which doctors elect to progress directly from Foundation Year 2 (F2) into core/specialty/general practice training and those who instead opt for an alternative next career step.

OBJECTIVE

To identify if there were any individual differences between these two groups of doctors.

DESIGN

This was a longitudinal, cohort study of 'home' students who graduated from UK medical schools between 2010 and 2015 and completed the Foundation Programme (FP) between 2012 and 2017.We used the UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) to access linked data from different sources, including medical school performance, specialty training applications and career preferences. Multivariable regression analyses were used to predict the odds of taking time out of training based on various sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

18 380/38 905 (47.2%) of F2 doctors applied for, and accepted, a training post offer immediately after completing F2. The most common pattern for doctors taking time out of the training pathway after FP was to have a 1-year (7155: 38.8%) or a 2-year break (2605: 14.0%) from training. The odds of not proceeding directly into core or specialty training were higher for those who were male, white, entered medical school as (high) school leavers and whose parents were educated to degree level. Doctors from areas of low participation in higher education were significantly (0.001) more likely to proceed directly into core or specialty training.

CONCLUSION

The results show that UK doctors from higher socioeconomic groups are less likely to choose to progress directly from the FP into specialty training. The data suggest that widening access and encouraging more socioeconomic diversity in our medical students may be helpful in terms of attracting F2s into core/specialty training posts.

Prediction of success at UK Specialty Board Examinations using the mandatory postgraduate UK surgical examination

Background

While performance in other mandatory examinations taken at the beginning of a doctor's career are predictive of final training outcomes, the influence early postgraduate surgical examinations might have on success at Specialty Board Exams in the UK is currently unknown. The aim was to investigate whether performance at the mandatory Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination, and other variables, are predictive of success at the Fellowship of the Royal College of Surgeons (FRCS) examination, thus potentially identifying those who may benefit from early academic intervention.

Methods

Pearson correlation coefficients examined the linear relationship between both examinations and logistic regression analysis identified potential independent predictors of FRCS success. All UK medical graduates who attempted either section of FRCS (Sections 1 and 2) between 2012 and 2018 were included.

Results

First attempt pass rates for Sections 1 and 2 FRCS were 87.4 per cent (n = 854) and 91.8 per cent (n = 797) respectively. In logistic regression analysis, sex (male: odds ratio (OR) 2.32, 95 per cent c.i 1.43 to 3.76), age (less than 29 years at graduation: OR 3.22, 1.88 to 5.51), Part B MRCS attempts (1 attempt: OR 1.77, 1.08 to 3.00), Part A score (OR 1.14, 1.09 to 1.89) and Part B score (OR 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09) were independent predictors of Section 1 FRCS success. Predictors of Section 2 FRCS success were age (less than 29 years at graduation: OR 3.55, 2.00 to 6.39), Part A score (OR 1.06, 1.02 to 1.11) and Section 1 FRCS score (OR 1.13, 1.07 to 1.18).

Conclusion

Part A and B MRCS performance were independent predictors of FRCS success, providing further evidence to support the predictive validity of this mandatory postgraduate exam. However, future research must explore the reasons between the attainment gaps observed for different groups of doctors.

Does initial postgraduate career intention and social demographics predict perceived career behaviour? A national cross-sectional survey of UK postgraduate doctors

OBJECTIVE

Studies indicate that initial career intentions and personal characteristics (eg, gender) can influence medical career decision-making. However, little is known about how personal characteristics and intention interact with career decision-making. To address this gap, we examined the link between career intention at the start of the 2-year UK Foundation Programme (FP) and career intentions on its completion.

METHODS

Data came from the 2017 UK National Career Destination Survey, a cross-sectional study completed by all second year foundation doctors. We included respondents' demographics (gender, graduate status on entry to medical school, career intention on starting the FP) and career intention as an outcome measure (eg, specialty (residency) training (UK), NHS non-training posts/further study, career break, working abroad). Multinomial regression was used to assess the independent relationship between background characteristics and career intention.

RESULTS

There were 6890 participants and 5570 usable responses. 55.9% of respondents were female and 43.1% were male, 77.1% were non-graduates and 22.9% were graduate entrants to medical school. Approximately two-thirds (62.3%, n=2170) of doctors who had an original intention to pursue specialty training after F2, still intended to do so on completion. Most of those who stated at the start of F2 that they did not want to pursue specialty indicated at the end of F2 they would be undertaking other employment opportunities outwith formal training. However, 37.7% of respondents who originally intended to pursue specialty training on FP completion did something different. Graduate entrants to medicine were more likely to immediately progress into specialty training compared with their peers who did medicine as a primary first degree.

CONCLUSION

Original intention is a strong predictor of career intentions at the end of the FP. However, a considerable proportion of doctors changed their mind during the FP. Further research is needed to understand this behaviour.

Evaluating the recruitment process into UK anaesthesia core training: a national data linkage study of doctors' performance at selection and subsequent postgraduate training

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

To explore which factors increase the likelihood of being deemed appointable to core anaesthesia training in the UK and whether those factors subsequently predict performance in postgraduate training.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational study linking UK medical specialty recruitment data with postgraduate educational performance, as measured by Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP) outcomes. Data were available for 2782 trainee doctors recruited to anaesthesia core training from 2012 to 2016 with at least one subsequent ARCP outcome.

RESULTS

Both higher interview and shortlisting scores were independent and statistically significant (p≤0.001) predictors of more satisfactory ARCP outcomes, even after controlling for the influence of postgraduate exam failure. It was noted that a number of background variables (eg, age at application) were independently associated with the odds of being deemed appointable at recruitment. Of these, increasing age and experience were also negative predictors of subsequent ARCP rating. These influences became statistically non-significant once ARCP outcomes associated with exam failure were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictors of 'appointability' largely also predict subsequent performance in postgraduate training, as indicated by ARCP ratings. This provides evidence for the validity of the selection process. Our results also suggest that greater weight could be applied to shortlisting scores within the overall process of ranking applicants for posts.

Assessing professional competence: a critical review of the Annual Review of Competence Progression

The Annual Review of Competence Progression is used to determine whether trainee doctors in the United Kingdom are safe and competent to progress to the next training stage. In this article we provide evidence to inform recommendations to enhance the validity of the summative and formative elements of the Annual Review of Competency Progression. The work was commissioned as part of a Health Education England review. We systematic searched the peer reviewed and grey literature, synthesising findings with information from national, local and specialty-specific Annual Review of Competence Progression guidance, critically evaluating the findings in the context of literature on assessing competence in medical education. National guidance lacked detail resulting in variability across locations and specialties, threatening validity and reliability. Trainees and trainers were concerned that the Annual Review of Competence Progression only reliably identifies the most poorly performing trainees. Feedback is not routinely provided, which can leave those with performance difficulties unsupported and high performers demotivated. Variability in the provision and quality of feedback can negatively affect learning. The Annual Review of Competence Progression functions as a high-stakes assessment, likely to have a significant impact on patient care. It should be subject to the same rigorous evaluation as other high-stakes assessments; there should be consistency in procedures across locations, specialties and grades; and all trainees should receive high-quality feedback.

Relationship between sociodemographic factors and specialty destination of UK trainee doctors: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Many countries are driving forward policies to widen the socioeconomic profile of medical students and to train more medical students for certain specialties. However, little is known about how socioeconomic origin relates to specialty choice. Nor is there a good understanding of the relationship between academic performance and specialty choice. To address these gaps, our aim was to identify the relationship between socioeconomic background, academic performance and accepted offers into specialty training.

DESIGN

Longitudinal, cohort study using data from the UK Medical Education Database (https://www.ukmed.ac.uk/).

PARTICIPANTS

6065 (60% females) UK doctors who accepted offers to a specialty training (residency) post after completing the 2-year generic foundation programme (UK Foundation Programme) between 2012 and 2014.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Χ² tests were used to examine the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics, academic ability and the dependent variable, specialty choice. Multiple data imputation was used to address the issue of missing data. Multinomial regression was employed to test the independent variables in predicting the likelihood of choosing a given specialty.

RESULTS

Participants pursuing careers in more competitive specialties had significantly higher academic scores than colleagues pursuing less competitive ones. After controlling for the presence of multiple factors, trainees who came from families where no parent was educated to a degree level had statistically significant lower odds of choosing careers in medical specialties relative to general practice (OR=0.78, 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.92). Students who entered medical school as school leavers, compared with mature students, had odds 1.2 times higher (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.56) of choosing surgical specialties than general practice.

CONCLUSIONS

The data indicate a direct association between trainees' sociodemographic characteristics, academic ability and career choices. The findings can be used by medical school, training boards and workforce planners to inform recruitment and retention strategies.

Does the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination predict 'on-the-job' performance during UK higher specialty surgical training?

INTRODUCTION

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) is a mandatory examination to enter higher surgical specialty training in the UK. It is designed to help to ensure that successful candidates are competent to practice as higher surgical trainees. The annual review of competence progression (ARCP) assesses trainees' competence to progress to the next level of training and can be interpreted as a measure of 'on-the-job' performance. We investigated the relationship between MRCS performance and ARCP outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All UK medical graduates who passed MRCS (Parts A and B) from 2007 to 2016 were included. MRCS scores, attempts and sociodemographics for each candidate were crosslinked with ARCP outcomes (satisfactory, unsatisfactory and insufficient evidence). Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify potential independent predictors of ARCP outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 2570 trainees underwent 11,064 ARCPs; 1589 (61.8%) had only satisfactory outcomes recorded throughout training; 510 (19.9%) had at least one unsatisfactory outcome; and 471 (18.3%) supplied insufficient evidence. After adjusting for age, gender, first language and Part A performance, ethnicity (non-white vs white, OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.71), Part B passing score (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00) and number of attempts at Part B (two or more attempts vs one attempt, OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.94) were found to be independent predictors of an unsatisfactory ARCP outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to identify predictors of ARCP outcomes during higher surgical specialty training in the UK and provides further evidence of the predictive validity of the MRCS examination.

Evaluating the validity of the selection measures used for the UK's foundation medical training programme: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Currently relative performance at medical school (educational performance measure (EPM) decile), additional educational achievements and the score on a situational judgement test (SJT) are used to rank applicants to the UK Foundation Years postgraduate medical training programme. We sought to evaluate whether these three measures were predictive of subsequent successful completion of the programme, and thus were valid selection criteria.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) on 14 131 UK applicants to the foundation programme starting in 2013 and 2014. These data included training outcomes in the form of Annual Reviews of Competency Progression (ARCPs), which indicated whether the programme was successfully completed. The relationship between applicants' performance on the three selection measures to the odds of successful programme completion were modelled.

RESULTS

On univariable analyses, all three measures were associated with the odds of successful completion of the programme. Converting the SJT score to deciles to compare the effect sizes suggested that one decile increase in the EPM increased the odds of completing the programme by approximately 15%, whereas the equivalent value was 8% for the SJT scores. On multivariable analyses (with all three measures included in the model), these effects were only independently and statistically significant for EPM decile (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.18, p<0.001) and SJT z-score decile (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The EPM decile and SJT scores may be effective selection measures for the foundation programme. However, educational achievements does not add value to the other two measures when predicting programme completion. Thus, its usefulness in this context is less clear. Moreover, our findings suggest that the weighting for the EPM decile score, relative to SJT performance, should be increased.

UK nationals who received their medical degrees abroad: selection into, and subsequent performance in postgraduate training: a national data linkage study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the likelihood of success at selection into specialty training for doctors who were UK nationals but obtained their primary medical qualification (PMQ) from outside the UK ('UK overseas graduates') with other graduate groups based on their nationality and where they gained their PMQ. We also compared subsequent educational performance during postgraduate training between the graduate groups.

DESIGN

Observational study linking UK medical specialty recruitment data with postgraduate educational performance (Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP) ratings).

SETTING

Doctors recruited into national programmes of postgraduate specialist training in the UK from 2012 to 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

34 755 UK-based trainee doctors recruited into national specialty training programmes with at least one subsequent ARCP outcome reported during the study period, including 1108 UK overseas graduates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Odds of being deemed appointable at specialty selection and subsequent odds of obtaining a less versus more satisfactory category of ARCP outcome.

RESULTS

UK overseas graduates were more likely to be deemed appointable compared with non-EU medical graduates who were not UK citizens (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.42), although less so than UK (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.27) or European graduates (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.75). However, UK overseas graduates were subsequently more likely to receive a less satisfactory outcome at ARCP than other graduate groups. Adjusting for age, sex, experience and the economic disparity between country of nationality and place of qualification reduced intergroup differences.

CONCLUSIONS

The failure of recruitment patterns to mirror the ARCP data raises issues regarding consistency in selection and the deaneries' subsequent annual reviews. Excessive weight is possibly given to interview performance at specialty recruitment. Regulators and selectors should continue to develop robust processes for selection and assessment of doctors in training. Further support could be considered for UK overseas graduates returning to practice in the UK.

Factors predicting success in the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination: a summary for OMFS

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS, parts A and B) is a mandatory examination for entry into higher surgical training in the UK. We investigated which factors predict success in both the written (Part A) and clinical (Part B) parts of the examination, and provide a summary for oral and maxillofacial surgeons (OMFS). All UK graduates who attempted both parts between 2007 and 2016 were included. There was a positive correlation between the scores in parts A and B (r=0.41, p<0.01). For Part A, men (odds ratio (OR) 2.78; 95% CI 1.83 to 4.19), white candidates (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.52 to 1.89), and younger graduates (under 29years of age), were more likely to pass (OR 2.60; 95% CI 1.81 to 3.63). Foundation year one (FY1) doctors had higher pass rates than all other grades (e.g. core surgical trainee 2 compared with FY1 OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.77). The number of attempts at Part A and the final score, as well as ethnicity and stage of training, were independent predictors of success in Part B. Candidates who did well in Part A were more likely to do well in Part B. Several independent predictors of success were identified, but only the stage of training and ethnicity were common predictors in both parts. Higher scores obtained by younger candidates might be relevant to OMFS trainees who take Part A after studying medicine as a second degree.

Predictors of success in the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination

Introduction The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS, Parts A and B) is designed to safeguard patients and ensure high standards for trainees wishing to pursue a surgical career. We investigated which factors predict Part A and B success. Methods UK graduates who had attempted both parts of MRCS from September 2007 to February 2016 were included. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine the linear relationship between each part of MRCS and logistic regression analysis to identify potential independent predictors of MRCS pass/fail outcome. Results A positive correlation between Part A and B score was identified (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). In Part A, males had higher pass rates than females (odds ratio, OR, 2.78, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.83-4.19), white candidates were more likely to pass than black minority and ethnic doctors (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.52-1.89), foundation year 1 doctors had higher pass rates than all other grades (e.g. core surgical year 2 trainees vs. foundation year 1 doctors, OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.32-0.77) and younger graduates were more likely to pass than older graduates (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.81-3.63). In addition to ethnicity and stage of training, Part A performance (number of attempts and score) was an independent predictor for Part B. Conclusions Part A performance is related to Part B score. Many independent predictors of MRCS success were identified, but only stage of training and ethnicity were found to be common predictors of both parts. This article summarises the findings of our most recent MRCS study which was published in The Surgeon (online) in October 2017. ¹.

What factors are critical to attracting NHS foundation doctors into specialty or core training? A discrete choice experiment

OBJECTIVES

Multiple personal and work-related factors influence medical trainees' career decision-making. The relative value of these diverse factors is under-researched, yet this intelligence is crucially important for informing medical workforce planning and retention and recruitment policies. Our aim was to investigate the relative value of UK doctors' preferences for different training post characteristics during the time period when they either apply for specialty or core training or take time out.

METHODS

We developed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) specifically for this population. The DCE was distributed to all Foundation Programme Year 2 (F2) doctors across Scotland as part of the National Career Destination Survey in June 2016. The main outcome measure was the monetary value of training post characteristics, based on willingness to forgo additional potential income and willingness to accept extra income for a change in each job characteristic calculated from regression coefficients.

RESULTS

677/798 F2 doctors provided usable DCE responses. Location was the most influential characteristic of a training position, followed closely by supportive culture and then working conditions. F2 doctors would need to be compensated by an additional 45.75% above potential earnings to move from a post in a desirable location to one in an undesirable location. Doctors who applied for a training post placed less value on supportive culture and excellent working conditions than those who did not apply. Male F2s valued location and a supportive culture less than female F2s.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study focusing on the career decision-making of UK doctors at a critical careers decision-making point. Both location and specific job-related attributes are highly valued by F2 doctors when deciding their future. This intelligence can inform workforce policy to focus their efforts in terms of making training posts attractive to this group of doctors to enhance recruitment and retention.

Impact of performance in a mandatory postgraduate surgical examination on selection into specialty training

Background

The Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination is undertaken by large numbers of trainees in the UK and internationally as a mandatory step within surgical training. Unlike some high-stakes medical examinations, the MRCS is yet to be validated. A quantitative study was undertaken to assess its predictive validity by investigating the relationship between MRCS (Parts A and B) and national selection interview scores for general and vascular surgery in the UK.

Methods

Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine the linear relationship between each assessment, and linear regression analyses were employed to identify potential independent predictors of the national selection score. All UK medical graduates who attempted the interview in 2011-2015 were included.

Results

Some 84·4 per cent of the candidates (1231 of 1458) were matched with MRCS data. There was a significant positive correlation between the first attempt score at Part B of the MRCS examination and the national selection score (r = 0·38, P < 0·001). In multivariable analysis, 17 per cent of variance in the national selection first attempt score was explained by the Part B MRCS score and number of attempts (change in R ² value of 0·10 and 0·07 respectively; P < 0·001). Candidates who required more than two attempts at Part B were predicted to score 8·1 per cent less than equally matched candidates who passed at their first attempt.

Conclusion

This study supports validity of the MRCS examination, and indicates its predictive value regarding entry into specialist training.