Predicting admissions and time spent in hospital over a decade in a population-based record linkage study: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

Hospital admissions and mortality over 20 years in community-dwelling older people: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Demographic changes worldwide are leading to pressures on health services, with hospital admissions representing an important contributor. Here, we report admission types experienced by older people and examine baseline risk factors for subsequent admission/death, from the community-based Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

METHODS

2997 participants (1418 women) completed a baseline questionnaire and clinic visit to characterize their health. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998-2004, aged 59-73 years) until December 2018 using UK Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, which report clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Baseline characteristics in relation to the risk of admission/death during follow-up were examined using sex-stratified univariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 36% of men and 26% of women died and 93% of men and 92% of women had at least one hospital admission; 6% of men and 7% of women had no admissions and were alive at end of follow-up. The most common types of admission during follow-up were cardiovascular (ever experienced: men 71%, women 68%) and respiratory (men 40%, women 34%). In both sexes, baseline risk factors that were associated (p < 0.05) with admission/death during follow-up were older age, poorer SF-36 physical function, and poorer self-rated health. In men, manual social class and a history of smoking, and in women, higher BMI, not owning one's home, and a minor trauma fracture since age 45, were also risk factors for admission/death.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociodemographic factors were related to increased risk of admission/death but a small proportion experienced no admissions during this period, suggesting that healthy ageing is achievable.

Evaluation of routinely collected records for dementia outcomes in UK: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the characteristics of individuals recorded as having a dementia diagnosis in different routinely collected records and to examine the extent of overlap of dementia coding across data sources. Also, to present comparisons of secondary and primary care records providing value for researchers using routinely collected records for dementia outcome capture.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A cohort of 25 639 men and women in Norfolk, aged 40-79 years at recruitment (1993-1997) followed until 2018 linked to routinely collected to identify dementia cases. Data sources include mortality from death certification and National Health Service (NHS) hospital or secondary care records. Primary care records for a subset of the cohort were also reviewed.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Diagnosis of dementia (any-cause).

RESULTS

Over 2000 participants (n=2635 individuals) were found to have a dementia diagnosis recorded in one or more of the data sources examined. Limited concordance was observed across the secondary care data sources. We also observed discrepancies with primary care records for the subset and report on potential linkage-related selection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of different types of record linkage from varying parts of the UK's health system reveals differences in recorded dementia diagnosis, indicating that dementia can be identified to varying extents in different parts of the NHS system. However, there is considerable variation, and limited overlap in those identified. We present potential selection biases that might occur depending on whether cause of death, or primary and secondary care data sources are used. With the expansion of using routinely collected health data, researchers must be aware of these potential biases and inaccuracies, reporting carefully on the likely extent of limitations and challenges of the data sources they use.

Gender differences in time to first hospital admission at age 60 in Denmark, 1995-2014

Women have consistently lower mortality rates than men at all ages and with respect to most causes. However, gender differences regarding hospital admission rates are more mixed, varying across ages and causes. A number of intuitive metrics have previously been used to explore changes in hospital admissions over time, but have not explicitly quantified the gender gap or estimated the cumulative contribution from cause-specific admission rates. Using register data for the total Danish population between 1995 and 2014, we estimated the time to first hospital admission for Danish men and women aged 60. This is an intuitive population-level metric with the same interpretive and mathematical properties as period life expectancy. Using a decomposition approach, we were able to quantify the cumulative contributions from eight causes of hospital admission to the gender gap in time to first hospital admission. Between 1995 and 2014, time to first admission increased for both, men (7.6 to 9.4 years) and women (8.3 to 10.3 years). However, the magnitude of gender differences in time to first admission remained relatively stable within this time period (0.7 years in 1995, 0.9 years in 2014). After age 60, Danish men had consistently higher rates of admission for cardiovascular conditions and neoplasms, but lower rates of admission for injuries, musculoskeletal disorders, and sex-specific causes. Although admission rates for both genders have generally declined over the last decades, the same major causes of admission accounted for the gender gap. Persistent gender differences in causes of admission are, therefore, important to consider when planning the delivery of health care in times of population ageing.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-021-00614-w.

Qualitative coronary artery calcification scores and risk of all cause, COPD and pneumonia hospital admission in a large CT lung cancer screening cohort

BACKGROUND

Patients at high-risk for lung cancer and qualified for CT lung cancer screening (CTLS) are at risk for numerous cardio-pulmonary comorbidities. We sought to examine if qualitatively assessed coronary artery calcifications (CAC) on CTLS exams could identify patients at increased risk for non-cardiovascular events such as all cause, COPD and pneumonia related hospitalization and to verify previously reported associations between CAC and mortality and cardiovascular events.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients (n = 4673) from Lahey Hospital and Medical Center who underwent CTLS from January 12, 2012 through September 30, 2017 were included with clinical follow-up through September 30, 2019. CTLS exams were qualitatively scored for the presence and severity of CAC at the time of exam interpretation using a four point scale: none, mild, moderate, and marked. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between CT qualitative CAC and all-cause, COPD-related, and pneumonia-related hospital admissions.

RESULTS

3631 (78%) of individuals undergoing CTLS had some degree of CAC on their baseline exam: 1308 (28.0%), 1128 (24.1%), and 1195 (25.6%) had mild, moderate and marked coronary calcification, respectively. Marked CAC was associated with all-cause hospital admission and pneumonia related admissions HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.23-1.78 and HR 2.19; 95% 1.30-3.71, respectively. Mild, moderate and marked CAC were associated with COPD-related admission HR 2.30; 95% CI 1.31-4.03, HR 2.17; 95% CI 1.20-3.91 and HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.24-4.15.

CONCLUSION

Qualitative CAC on CTLS exams identifies individuals at elevated risk for all cause, pneumonia and COPD-related hospital admissions.

Clinical profile of rural community hospital inpatients in Sweden - a register study

OBJECTIVE

Patients in Sweden's rural community hospitals have not been clinically characterised. We compared characteristics of patients in general practitioner-led community hospitals in northern Sweden with those admitted to general hospitals.

DESIGN

Retrospective register study.

SETTING

Community and general hospitals in Västerbotten and Norrbotten counties, Sweden.

PATIENTS

Patients enrolled at community hospitals and hospitalised in community and general hospitals between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age, sex, number of admissions, main, secondary and total number of diagnoses.

RESULTS

We recorded 16,133 admissions to community hospitals and 60,704 admissions to general hospitals. Mean age was 76.8 and 61.2 years for community and general hospital patients (p < .001). Women were more likely than men to be admitted to a community hospital after age adjustment (odds ratio (OR): 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.17). The most common diagnoses in community hospital were heart failure (6%) and pneumonia (5%). Patients with these diagnoses were more likely to be admitted to a community than a general hospital (OR: 2.36; 95% CI: 2.15-2.59; vs. OR: 3.32: 95% CI: 2.77-3.98, respectively, adjusted for age and sex). In both community and general hospitals, doctors assigned more diagnoses to men than to women (both p<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients at community hospitals were predominantly older and women, while men were assigned more diagnoses. The most common diagnoses were heart failure and pneumonia. Our observed differences should be further explored to define the optimal care for patients in community and general hospitals.Key pointsThe patient characteristics at Swedish general practitioner-led rural community hospitals have not yet been reported. This study characterises inpatients in community hospitals compared to those referred to general hospitals.• Patients at community hospitals were predominantly older, with various medical conditions that would have led to a referral to general hospitals elsewhere in Sweden. • Compared to men, women were more likely to be admitted to community hospitals than to general hospitals, even after adjustment for age. To the best of our knowledge, this pattern has not been reported in other countries with community hospitals. • In both community hospitals and general hospitals, doctors assigned more diagnoses to men than to women.

The Relationship Between Cognitive Performance Using Tests Assessing a Range of Cognitive Domains and Future Dementia Diagnosis in a British Cohort: A Ten-Year Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Exploring the domains of cognitive function which are most strongly associated with future dementia may help with understanding risk factors for, and the natural history of dementia.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of performance on a range of cognitive tests (both global and domain specific) with subsequent diagnosis of dementia through health services in a population of relatively healthy men and women and risk of future dementia.

METHODS

We examined the association between performance on different cognitive tests as well as a global score and future dementia risk ascertained through health record linkage in a cohort of 8,581 individuals (aged 48-92 years) between 2004-2019 with almost 15 years follow-up (average of 10 years) before and after adjustment for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics.

RESULTS

Those with poor performance for global cognition (bottom 10%) were almost four times as likely to receive a dementia diagnosis from health services over the next 15 years than those who performed well HR = 3.51 (95% CI 2.61, 4.71 p < 0.001) after adjustment for socioeconomic, lifestyle, and biological factors and also prevalent disease. Poor cognition performance in multiple tests was associated with 10-fold increased risk compared to those not performing poorly in any test HR = 10.82 (95% CI 6.85, 17.10 p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Deficits across multiple cognitive domains substantially increase risk of future dementia over and above neuropsychological test scores ten years prior to a clinical diagnosis. These findings may help further understanding of the natural history of dementia and how such measures could contribute to strengthening future models of dementia.

Qualitative emphysema and risk of COPD hospitalization in a multicenter CT lung cancer screening cohort study

BACKGROUND

In the United States, 9 to 10 million Americans are estimated to be eligible for computed tomographic lung cancer screening (CTLS). Those meeting criteria for CTLS are at high-risk for numerous cardio-pulmonary co-morbidities. The objective of this study was to determine the association between qualitative emphysema identified on screening CTs and risk for hospital admission.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter study from two CTLS cohorts: Lahey Hospital and Medical Center (LHMC) CTLS program, Burlington, MA and Mount Auburn Hospital (MAH) CTLS program, Cambridge, MA. CTLS exams were qualitatively scored by radiologists at time of screening for presence of emphysema. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between CT qualitative emphysema and all-cause, COPD-related, and pneumonia-related hospital admission.

RESULTS

We included 4673 participants from the LHMC cohort and 915 from the MAH cohort. 57% and 51.9% of the LHMC and MAH cohorts had presence of CT emphysema, respectively. In the LHMC cohort, the presence of emphysema was associated with all-cause hospital admission (HR 1.15, CI 1.07-1.23; p < 0.001) and COPD-related admission (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14-2.36; p = 0.007), but not with pneumonia-related admission (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.27-1.83; p < 0.001). In the MAH cohort, the presence of emphysema was only associated with COPD-related admission (HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.07-3.95; p = 0.031).

CONCLUSION

Qualitative CT assessment of emphysema is associated with COPD-related hospital admission in a CTLS population. Identification of emphysema on CLTS exams may provide an opportunity for prevention and early intervention to reduce admission risk.

Sociodemographic and lifestyle predictors of incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in a general population, 1999-2019: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

BACKGROUND

The ageing population and prevalence of long-term disorders with multimorbidity are a major health challenge worldwide. The associations between comorbid conditions and mortality risk are well established; however, few prospective community-based studies have reported on prior risk factors for incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity. We aimed to explore the independent associations for a range of demographic, lifestyle and physiological determinants and the likelihood of subsequent hospital incident multimorbidity.

METHODS

We examined incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in 25 014 men and women aged 40-79 in a British prospective population-based study recruited in 1993-1997 and followed up until 2019. The determinants of incident multimorbidity, defined as Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models for the 10-year period 1999-2009 and repeated with independent measurements in a second 10-year period 2009-2019.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2009, 18 179 participants (73% of the population) had a hospital admission. Baseline 5-year and 10-year incident multimorbidities were observed in 6% and 12% of participants, respectively. Age per 10-year increase (OR 2.19, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.33) and male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47) predicted incident multimorbidity over 10 years. In the subset free of the most serious diseases at baseline, current smoking (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.15), body mass index >30 kg/m² (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.70) and physical inactivity (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29) were positively associated and plasma vitamin C (a biomarker of plant food intake) per SD increase (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.91) inversely associated with incident 10-year multimorbidity after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, social class, education, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Results were similar when re-examined for a further time period in 2009-2019.

CONCLUSION

Age, male sex and potentially modifiable lifestyle behaviours including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity and low fruit and vegetable intake were associated with increased risk of future incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity.

Rethinking morbidity compression

Studies of morbidity compression routinely report the average number of years spent in an unhealthy state but do not report variation in age at morbidity onset. Variation was highlighted by Fries (1980) as crucial for identifying disease postponement. Using incidence of first hospitalization after age 60, as one working example, we estimate variation in morbidity onset over a 27-year period in Denmark. Annual estimates of first hospitalization and the population at risk for 1987 to 2014 were identified using population-based registers. Sex-specific life tables were constructed, and the average age, the threshold age, and the coefficient of variation in age at first hospitalization were calculated. On average, first admissions lasting two or more days shifted towards older ages between 1987 and 2014. The average age at hospitalization increased from 67.8 years (95% CI 67.7-67.9) to 69.5 years (95% CI 69.4-69.6) in men, and 69.1 (95% CI 69.1-69.2) to 70.5 years (95% CI 70.4-70.6) in women. Variation in age at first admission increased slightly as the coefficient of variation increased from 9.1 (95% CI 9.0-9.1) to 9.9% (95% CI 9.8-10.0) among men, and from 10.3% (95% CI 10.2-10.4) to 10.6% (95% CI 10.5-10.6) among women. Our results suggest populations are ageing with better health today than in the past, but experience increasing diversity in healthy ageing. Pensions, social care, and health services will have to adapt to increasingly heterogeneous ageing populations, a phenomenon that average measures of morbidity do not capture.

Usual physical activity and subsequent hospital usage over 20 years in a general population: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

Background

While physical activity interventions have been reported to reduce hospital stays, it is not clear if, in the general population, usual physical activity patterns may be associated with subsequent hospital use independently of other lifestyle factors.

Objective

We examined the relationship between reported usual physical activity and subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital for 11,228 men and 13,786 women aged 40–79 years in the general population.

Methods

Participants from a British prospective population-based cohort study were followed for 20 years (1999–2019) using record linkage to document hospital usage. Total physical activity was estimated by combining workplace and leisure time activity reported in a baseline lifestyle questionnaire and repeated in a subset at a second time point approximately 12 years later.

Results

Compared to those reporting no physical activity, participants who were the most active had a lower likelihood of spending more than 20 days in hospital odds ratio (OR) 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81–0.96) over the next 20 years after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Participants reporting any activity had a mean of 0.42 fewer hospital days per year between 1999 and 2009 compared to inactive participants, an estimated potential saving to the National Health Service (NHS) of £247 per person per year, or approximately 7% of UK health expenditure. Participants who remained physically active or became active 12 years later had lower risk of subsequent hospital usage than those who remained inactive or became inactive, p-trend < 0.001.

Conclusion

Usual physical activity in this middle-aged and older population predicts lower future hospitalisations - time spent in hospital and number of admissions independently of behavioural and sociodemographic factors. Small feasible differences in usual physical activity in the general population may potentially have a substantial impact on hospital usage and costs.

Socioeconomic and citizenship inequalities in hospitalisation of the adult population in Italy

BACKGROUND

Higher levels of hospital admissions among people with lower socioeconomic level, including immigrants, have been observed in developed countries. In Europe, immigrants present a more frequent use of emergency services compared to the native population. The aim of our study was to evaluate the socioeconomic and citizenship differences in the hospitalisation of the adult population in Italy.

METHODS

The study was conducted using the database created by the record linkage between the National Health Interview Survey (2005) with the National Hospital Discharge Database (2005-2014). 79,341 individuals aged 18-64 years were included. The outcomes were acute hospital admissions, urgent admissions and length of stay (1-7 days, > = 8 days). Education level, occupational status, self-perceived economic resources and migratory status were considered as socioeconomic determinants. A multivariate proportional hazards model for recurrent events was used to estimate the risk of total hospital admissions. Logistic models were used to estimate the risk of urgent hospitalisation as well as of length of stay.

RESULTS

Low education level, the lack of employment and negative self-perceived economic resources were conditions associated with the risk of hospitalisation, a longer hospital stay and greater recourse to urgent hospitalisation. Foreigners had a lower risk of hospitalisation (HR = 0.75; 95% CI:0.68-0.83) but a higher risk of urgent hospitalisation (OR = 1.36; 95% CI:1.18-1.55) and more frequent hospitalisations with a length of stay of at least eight days (OR = 1.19; 95% CI:1.02-1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

To improve equity in access, effective primary, secondary and tertiary prevention strategies must be strengthened, as should access to appropriate levels of care.

Residential area deprivation and risk of subsequent hospital admission in a British population: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether residential area deprivation index predicts subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital independently of individual social class and lifestyle factors.

DESIGN

Prospective population-based study.

SETTING

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study.

PARTICIPANTS

11 214 men and 13 763 women in the general population, aged 40-79 years at recruitment (1993-1997), alive in 1999.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Total admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital during a 19-year time period (1999-2018).

RESULTS

Compared to those with residential Townsend Area Deprivation Index lower than the average for England and Wales, those with a higher than average deprivation index had a higher likelihood of spending >20 days in hospital multivariable adjusted OR 1.18 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.29) and having 7 or more admissions OR 1.11 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.22) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Occupational social class and educational attainment modified the association between area deprivation and hospitalisation; those with manual social class and lower education level were at greater risk of hospitalisation when living in an area with higher deprivation index (p-interaction=0.025 and 0.020, respectively), while the risk for non-manual and more highly educated participants did not vary greatly by area of residence.

CONCLUSION

Residential area deprivation predicts future hospitalisations, time spent in hospital and number of admissions, independently of individual social class and education level and other behavioural factors. There are significant interactions such that residential area deprivation has greater impact in those with low education level or manual social class. Conversely, higher education level and social class mitigated the association of area deprivation with hospital usage.

Alcohol consumption and future hospital usage: The EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

BACKGROUND

Heavy drinkers of alcohol are reported to use hospitals more than non-drinkers, but it is unclear whether light-to-moderate drinkers use hospitals more than non-drinkers.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the relationship between alcohol consumption in 10,883 men and 12,857 women aged 40-79 years in the general population and subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital.

METHODS

Participants from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based study were followed for ten years (1999-2009) using record linkage.

RESULTS

Compared to current non-drinkers, men who reported any alcohol drinking had a lower risk of spending more than twenty days in hospital multivariable adjusted OR 0.80 (95%CI 0.68-0.94) after adjusting for age, smoking status, education, social class, body mass index and prevalent diseases. Women who were current drinkers were less likely to have any hospital admissions multivariable adjusted OR 0.84 (95%CI 0.74-0.95), seven or more admissions OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.88) or more than twenty hospital days OR 0.70 (95%CI 0.62-0.80). However, compared to lifelong abstainers, men who were former drinkers had higher risk of any hospital admissions multivariable adjusted OR 2.22 (95%CI 1.51-3.28) and women former drinkers had higher risk of seven or more admissions OR 1.30 (95%CI 1.01-1.67).

CONCLUSION

Current alcohol consumption was associated with lower risk of future hospital usage compared with non-drinkers in this middle aged and older population. In men, this association may in part be due to whether former drinkers are included in the non-drinker reference group but in women, the association was consistent irrespective of the choice of reference group. In addition, there were few participants in this cohort with very high current alcohol intake. The measurement of past drinking, the separation of non-drinkers into former drinkers and lifelong abstainers and the choice of reference group are all influential in interpreting the risk of alcohol consumption on future hospitalisation.