Protocol for a population-based molecular epidemiology study of tuberculosis transmission in a high HIV-burden setting: the Botswana Kopanyo study

Use of High-Resolution Geospatial and Genomic Data to Characterize Recent Tuberculosis Transmission, Botswana

Combining genomic and geospatial data can be useful for understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in high-burden tuberculosis (TB) settings. We performed whole-genome sequencing on M. tuberculosis DNA extracted from sputum cultures from a population-based TB study conducted in Gaborone, Botswana, during 2012-2016. We determined spatial distribution of cases on the basis of shared genotypes among isolates. We considered clusters of isolates with ≤5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by whole-genome sequencing to indicate recent transmission and clusters of ≥10 persons to be outbreaks. We obtained both molecular and geospatial data for 946/1,449 (65%) participants with culture-confirmed TB; 62 persons belonged to 5 outbreaks of 10-19 persons each. We detected geospatial clustering in just 2 of those 5 outbreaks, suggesting heterogeneous spatial patterns. Our findings indicate that targeted interventions applied in smaller geographic areas of high-burden TB identified using integrated genomic and geospatial data might help interrupt TB transmission during outbreaks.

Using genetic data to identify transmission risk factors: Statistical assessment and application to tuberculosis transmission

Identifying host factors that influence infectious disease transmission is an important step toward developing interventions to reduce disease incidence. Recent advances in methods for reconstructing infectious disease transmission events using pathogen genomic and epidemiological data open the door for investigation of host factors that affect onward transmission. While most transmission reconstruction methods are designed to work with densely sampled outbreaks, these methods are making their way into surveillance studies, where the fraction of sampled cases with sequenced pathogens could be relatively low. Surveillance studies that use transmission event reconstruction then use the reconstructed events as response variables (i.e., infection source status of each sampled case) and use host characteristics as predictors (e.g., presence of HIV infection) in regression models. We use simulations to study estimation of the effect of a host factor on probability of being an infection source via this multi-step inferential procedure. Using TransPhylo-a widely-used method for Bayesian estimation of infectious disease transmission events-and logistic regression, we find that low sensitivity of identifying infection sources leads to dilution of the signal, biasing logistic regression coefficients toward zero. We show that increasing the proportion of sampled cases improves sensitivity and some, but not all properties of the logistic regression inference. Application of these approaches to real world data from a population-based TB study in Botswana fails to detect an association between HIV infection and probability of being a TB infection source. We conclude that application of a pipeline, where one first uses TransPhylo and sparsely sampled surveillance data to infer transmission events and then estimates effects of host characteristics on probabilities of these events, should be accompanied by a realistic simulation study to better understand biases stemming from imprecise transmission event inference.

Characterizing tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden urban and rural settings

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden settings are poorly understood. Growing evidence suggests transmission may be characterized by extensive individual heterogeneity in secondary cases (i.e., superspreading), yet the degree and influence of such heterogeneity is largely unknown and unmeasured in high burden-settings. We conducted a prospective, population-based molecular epidemiology study of TB transmission in both an urban and rural setting of Botswana, one of the highest TB burden countries in the world. We used these empirical data to fit two mathematical models (urban and rural) that jointly quantified both the effective reproductive number, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R$$\end{document}R, and the propensity for superspreading in each population. We found both urban and rural populations were characterized by a high degree of individual heterogeneity, however such heterogeneity disproportionately impacted the rural population: 99% of secondary transmission was attributed to only 19% of infectious cases in the rural population compared to 60% in the urban population and the median number of incident cases until the first outbreak of 30 cases was only 32 for the rural model compared to 791 in the urban model. These findings suggest individual heterogeneity plays a critical role shaping local TB epidemiology within subpopulations.

Tuberculosis attributed to transmission within healthcare facilities, Botswana—The Kopanyo Study

Objective:

Healthcare facilities are a well-known high-risk environment for transmission of M. tuberculosis, the etiologic agent of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, the link between M. tuberculosis transmission in healthcare facilities and its role in the general TB epidemic is unknown. We estimated the proportion of overall TB transmission in the general population attributable to healthcare facilities.

Methods:

We combined data from a prospective, population-based molecular epidemiologic study with a universal electronic medical record (EMR) covering all healthcare facilities in Botswana to identify biologically plausible transmission events occurring at the healthcare facility. Patients with M. tuberculosis isolates of the same genotype visiting the same facility concurrently were considered an overlapping event. We then used TB diagnosis and treatment data to categorize overlapping events into biologically plausible definitions. We calculated the proportion of overall TB cases in the cohort that could be attributable to healthcare facilities.

Results:

In total, 1,881 participants had TB genotypic and EMR data suitable for analysis, resulting in 46,853 clinical encounters at 338 healthcare facilities. We identified 326 unique overlapping events involving 370 individual patients; 91 (5%) had biologic plausibility for transmission occurring at a healthcare facility. A sensitivity analysis estimated that 3%–8% of transmission may be attributable to healthcare facilities.

Conclusions:

Although effective interventions are critical in reducing individual risk for healthcare workers and patients at healthcare facilities, our findings suggest that development of targeted interventions aimed at community transmission may have a larger impact in reducing TB.

Population-Based Geospatial and Molecular Epidemiologic Study of Tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics, Botswana, 2012-2016

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination requires interrupting transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We used a multidisciplinary approach to describe TB transmission in 2 sociodemographically distinct districts in Botswana (Kopanyo Study). During August 2012-March 2016, all patients who had TB were enrolled, their sputum samples were cultured, and M. tuberculosis isolates were genotyped by using 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats. Of 5,515 TB patients, 4,331 (79%) were enrolled. Annualized TB incidence varied by geography (range 66-1,140 TB patients/100,000 persons). A total of 1,796 patient isolates had valid genotyping results and residential geocoordinates; 780 (41%) patients were involved in a localized TB transmission event. Residence in areas with a high burden of TB, age <24 years, being a current smoker, and unemployment were factors associated with localized transmission events. Patients with known HIV-positive status had lower odds of being involved in localized transmission.

A Neighbor-Based Approach to Identify Tuberculosis Exposure, the Kopanyo Study

Contact investigation is one public health measure used to prevent tuberculosis by identifying and treating persons exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Contact investigations are a major tenet of global tuberculosis elimination efforts, but for many reasons remain ineffective. We describe a novel neighbor-based approach to reframe contact investigations.

Possible Transmission Mechanisms of Mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in High HIV Prevalence Country, Botswana

Tuberculosis caused by concurrent infection with multiple Mycobacteriumtuberculosis strains (i.e., mixed infection) challenges clinical and epidemiologic paradigms. We explored possible transmission mechanisms of mixed infection in a population-based, molecular epidemiology study in Botswana during 2012–2016. We defined mixed infection as multiple repeats of alleles at >2 loci within a discrete mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit–variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) result. We compared mixed infection MIRU-VNTR results with all study MIRU-VNTR results by considering all permutations at each multiple allele locus; matched MIRU-VNTR results were considered evidence of recently acquired strains and nonmatched to any other results were considered evidence of remotely acquired strains. Among 2,051 patients, 34 (1.7%) had mixed infection, of which 23 (68%) had recently and remotely acquired strains. This finding might support the mixed infection mechanism of recent transmission and simultaneous remote reactivation. Further exploration is needed to determine proportions of transmission mechanisms in settings where mixed infections are prevalent.

Phylogenetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in two geographically distinct locations in Botswana - The Kopanyo Study

Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) is divided into several major phylogenetic lineages, with differential distribution globally. Using population-based data collected over a three year period, we performed 24-locus Mycobacterial Interspersed Repeat Unit - Variable Number Tandem Repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping on all culture isolates from two districts of the country that differ in tuberculosis (TB) incidence (Gaborone, the capital, and Ghanzi in the Western Kalahari). The study objective was to characterize the molecular epidemiology of TB in these districts. Overall phylogenetic diversity mirrored that reported from neighboring Republic of South Africa, but differences in the two districts were marked. All four major lineages of M. tuberculosis were found in Gaborone, but only three of the four major lineages were found in Ghanzi. Strain diversity was lower in Ghanzi, with a large proportion (38%) of all isolates having an identical MIRU-VNTR result, compared to 6% of all isolates in Gaborone with the same MIRU-VNTR result. This study demonstrates localized differences in strain diversity by two districts in Botswana, and contributes to a growing characterization of MTBC diversity globally.

Utility of Targeted, Amplicon-Based Deep Sequencing To Detect Resistance to First-Line Tuberculosis Drugs in Botswana

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) is an alarming threat, and targeted deep sequencing (DS) may be an effective method for rapid identification of drug-resistant profiles, including detection of heteroresistance. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of targeted DS versus phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (pDST) among patients starting first-line anti-TB therapy in Botswana. Overall, we found high concordance between DS and pDST. Lower sensitivity of DS, which targets established high-confidence resistance variants, was observed for detecting isoniazid resistance among HIV-infected patients.

Mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Strain Infections Are Associated With Poor Treatment Outcomes Among Patients With Newly Diagnosed Tuberculosis, Independent of Pretreatment Heteroresistance

Background

Heteroresistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections (defined as concomitant infection with drug-resistant and drug-susceptible strains) may explain the higher risk of poor tuberculosis treatment outcomes observed among patients with mixed-strain M. tuberculosis infections. We investigated the clinical effect of mixed-strain infections while controlling for pretreatment heteroresistance in a population-based sample of patients with tuberculosis starting first-line tuberculosis therapy in Botswana.

Methods

We performed 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem-repeat analysis and targeted deep sequencing on baseline primary cultured isolates to detect mixed infections and heteroresistance, respectively. Drug-sensitive, micro-heteroresistant, macro-heteroresistant, and fixed-resistant infections were defined as infections in which the frequency of resistance was <0.1%, 0.1%-4%, 5%-94%, and ≥95%, respectively, in resistance-conferring domains of the inhA promoter, the katG gene, and the rpoB gene.

Results

Of the 260 patients with tuberculosis included in the study, 25 (9.6%) had mixed infections and 30 (11.5%) had poor treatment outcomes. Micro-heteroresistance, macro-heteroresistance, and fixed resistance were found among 11 (4.2%), 2 (0.8%), and 11 (4.2%), respectively, for isoniazid and 21 (8.1%), 0 (0%), and 10 (3.8%), respectively, for rifampicin. In multivariable analysis, mixed infections but not heteroresistant infections independently predicted poor treatment outcomes.

Conclusions

Among patients starting first-line tuberculosis therapy in Botswana, mixed infections were associated with poor tuberculosis treatment outcomes, independent of heteroresistance.

Human cytochrome P450 2B6 genetic variability in Botswana: a case of haplotype diversity and convergent phenotypes

Identification of inter-individual variability for drug metabolism through cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6) enzyme is important for understanding the differences in clinical responses to malaria and HIV. This study evaluates the distribution of CYP2B6 alleles, haplotypes and inferred metabolic phenotypes among subjects with different ethnicity in Botswana. A total of 570 subjects were analyzed for CYP2B6 polymorphisms at position 516 G > T (rs3745274), 785 A > G (rs2279343) and 983 T > C (rs28399499). Samples were collected in three districts of Botswana where the population belongs to Bantu (Serowe/Palapye and Chobe) and San-related (Ghanzi) ethnicity. The three districts showed different haplotype composition according to the ethnic background but similar metabolic inferred phenotypes, with 59.12%, 34.56%, 2.10% and 4.21% of the subjects having, respectively, an extensive, intermediate, slow and rapid metabolic profile. The results hint at the possibility of a convergent adaptation of detoxifying metabolic phenotypes despite a different haplotype structure due to the different genetic background. The main implication is that, while there is substantial homogeneity of metabolic inferred phenotypes among the country, the response to drugs metabolized via CYP2B6 could be individually associated to an increased risk of treatment failure and toxicity. These are important facts since Botswana is facing malaria elimination and a very high HIV prevalence.

Molecular clustering of patients with diabetes and pulmonary tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Many studies have explored the relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and tuberculosis (TB) demonstrating increased risk of TB among patients with DM and poor prognosis of patients suffering from the association of DM/TB. Owing to a paucity of studies addressing this question, it remains unclear whether patients with DM and TB are more likely than TB patients without DM to be grouped into molecular clusters defined according to the genotype of the infecting Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacillus. That is, whether there is convincing molecular epidemiological evidence for TB transmission among DM patients. Objective: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantitatively evaluate the propensity for patients with DM and pulmonary TB (PTB) to cluster according to the genotype of the infecting M. tuberculosis bacillus.

Materials and methods

We conducted a systematic search in MEDLINE and LILACS from 1990 to June, 2016 with the following combinations of key words “tuberculosis AND transmission” OR “tuberculosis diabetes mellitus” OR “Mycobacterium tuberculosis molecular epidemiology” OR “RFLP-IS6110” OR “Spoligotyping” OR “MIRU-VNTR”. Studies were included if they met the following criteria: (i) studies based on populations from defined geographical areas; (ii) use of genotyping by IS6110- restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and spoligotyping or mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) or other amplification methods to identify molecular clustering; (iii) genotyping and analysis of 50 or more cases of PTB; (iv) study duration of 11 months or more; (v) identification of quantitative risk factors for molecular clustering including DM; (vi) > 60% coverage of the study population; and (vii) patients with PTB confirmed bacteriologically. The exclusion criteria were: (i) Extrapulmonary TB; (ii) TB caused by nontuberculous mycobacteria; (iii) patients with PTB and HIV; (iv) pediatric PTB patients; (v) TB in closed environments (e.g. prisons, elderly homes, etc.); (vi) diabetes insipidus and (vii) outbreak reports. Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of the association between DM with molecular clustering of cases with TB. In order to evaluate the degree of heterogeneity a statistical Q test was done. The publication bias was examined with Begg and Egger tests. Review Manager 5.3.5 CMA v.3 and Biostat and Software package R were used.

Results

Selection criteria were met by six articles which included 4076 patients with PTB of which 13% had DM. Twenty seven percent of the cases were clustered. The majority of cases (48%) were reported in a study in China with 31% clustering. The highest incidence of TB occurred in two studies from China. The global OR for molecular clustering was 0.84 (IC 95% 0.40–1.72). The heterogeneity between studies was moderate (I² = 55%, p = 0.05), although there was no publication bias (Beggs test p = 0.353 and Eggers p = 0.429).

Conclusion

There were very few studies meeting our selection criteria. The wide confidence interval indicates that there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about the association. Clustering of patients with DM in TB transmission chains should be investigated in areas where both diseases are prevalent and focus on specific contexts.

Molecular, Spatial, and Field Epidemiology Suggesting TB Transmission in Community, Not Hospital, Gaborone, Botswana

During 2012–2015, 10 of 24 patients infected with matching genotypes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis received care at the same hospital in Gaborone, Botswana. Nosocomial transmission was initially suspected, but we discovered plausible sites of community transmission for 20 (95%) of 21 interviewed patients. Active case-finding at these sites could halt ongoing transmission.