Protocol for a multicentre randomised feasibility STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients: STUMBL trial

Blunt mechanism chest wall injury: initial patient assessment and acute care priorities

Blunt mechanism chest wall injury (CWI) is commonly seen in the emergency department (ED), since it is present in around 15% of trauma patients. The thoracic cage protects the heart, lungs and trachea, thereby supporting respiration and circulation, so injury to the thorax can induce potentially life-threatening complications. Systematic care pathways have been shown to improve outcomes for patients presenting with blunt mechanism CWI, but care is not consistent across the UK. Emergency nurses have a crucial role in assessing and treating patients who present to the ED with blunt mechanism CWI. This article discusses the initial assessment and acute care priorities for this patient group. It also presents a prognostic model for predicting the probability of in-hospital complications following blunt mechanism CWI.

The clinical effectiveness of the STUMBL score for the management of ED patients with blunt chest trauma compared to clinical evaluation alone

The STUMBL (STUdy of the Management of BLunt chest wall trauma) score is a new prognostic score to assist ED (Emergency Department) decision making in the management of blunt chest trauma. This is a retrospective cohort chart review study conducted in a UK University Hospital ED seeing 120,000 patients a year, comparing its performance characteristics to ED clinician judgement. All blunt chest trauma patients that presented to our ED over a 6-month period were included. Patients were excluded if age < 18, if they had immediate life-threatening injury, required critical care admission for other injuries or in case of missing identification data. Primary endpoint was complication defined as any of lower respiratory tract infection, pulmonary consolidation, empyema, pneumothorax, haemothorax, splenic or hepatic injury and 30-day mortality. Clinician judgement (clinician decision to admit) and STUMBL score were compared using the receiver-operating curve (ROC) and sensitivity analysis. Three hundred and sixty-nine patients were included. ED clinicians admitted 95 of 369 patients. ED clinician decision to admit had a sensitivity of 83.9% and specificity of 86.0% for predicting complications. STUMBL score ≥ 11 had a sensitivity of 79.0% and specificity of 77.9% for the same and would have led to 117 of 369 patients being admitted. Area under the curve (AUC) of STUMBL score and ED clinician decision to admit was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.79-0.91), respectively. Our findings show that a STUMBL score ≥ 11 performs no better than ED clinician judgement and leads to more patients being admitted to hospital.

Retrospective validation of a risk stratification tool developed for the management of patients with blunt chest trauma (the STUMBL score)

OBJECTIVE

To assess validity of the STUMBL score in New Zealand for complications of blunt chest trauma without multi-trauma and immediate life-threatening injuries.

METHODS

A multi-centre, retrospective observational study was carried out in five EDs. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for all, early and late complications and ethnic sub-groups. Youden Index generated for each ROC was used to indicate cut scores for risks of complication, ICU admission, prolonged length of stay (LOS) and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 445 patients were included. AUROC for all complications composite were (0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.77), mortality (0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94), ICU admissions (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.81) and prolonged LOS (0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.83) were calculated. The score performed better in the New Zealand European (Pākehā) sub-group compared to Māori and Pasifika (AUROC [95% CI]: 0.80 [0.73-0.85], 0.69 [0.56-0.79], 0.66 [0.46-0.82], respectively). Patients with scores >12 were at risk of complications from blunt chest trauma, >15 at risk of prolonged LOS and >18 at risk of ICU admission and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The STUMBL score at a cut-off of <12 did not predict all complications sufficiently well to recommend for general use in our population. However, a score >15 predicted prolonged LOS and a score >18 predicted mortality sufficiently to be clinically useful for these outcomes. The score is more accurate in New Zealand Pākehā and needs to be used with caution in Māori and Pasifika populations. A larger prospective validation is required to further assess the score.

Health Economic Evaluation Alongside Stepped Wedge Trials: A Methodological Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Recently, there has been an increase in use of the stepped wedge trial (SWT) design in the context of health services research, due to its pragmatic and methodological advantages over the parallel group design.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to summarise the statistical methods used when conducting economic evaluations alongside SWTs.

METHODS

A systematic literature search extending to February 2020 was conducted in the PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS-EED) databases to find and evaluate studies where there was an intention to conduct an economic evaluation alongside an SWT. Studies were assessed for their eligibility, findings, reporting of statistical methods and quality of reporting.

RESULTS

Of the 586 studies retrieved from the literature search, 69 studies were identified and included in this systematic review. A total of 54 studies were published protocols, with eight economic evaluations and seven studies reporting full trial results. Included studies varied in terms of their reporting of statistical methods, in both detail and methodology. There were 34 studies that did not report any statistical methods for the economic evaluation, and only 16 studies reported appropriate methods, mainly using some form of mixed/multilevel model, and two used seemingly unrelated regression. Twelve studies reported the use of generic bootstrap methods and other modelling techniques, whilst the remaining studies failed to appropriately account for clustering, correlation or adjustment for time.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of appropriate statistical methods that account for time, clustering and correlation between costs and outcomes is an important part of SWT health economics analysis, one that will benefit from an effort to communicate the methods available and their performance.

Prognostic prediction tools and clinician communication: a qualitative study of the effect of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice

BACKGROUND

In recent years, researchers and clinicians have been developing prognostic prediction tools (PPTs) as a way of identifying patients at risk of deterioration. The use of PPTs in the clinical environment not only impacts the risk of adverse outcomes for patients, but the use of these tools also effect clinical practice. Much attention has been paid to the clinical performance of PPTs. But more insight is needed on how the use of PPTs impacts clinical practice. The objective of this study was to map some of the ways in which PPTs effect clinical practice. The STUMBL (STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients) feasibility trial evaluated the use of a new prognostic prediction tool (PPT) to guide the management blunt chest wall trauma patients in the emergency departments (ED). The trial was undertaken between October 2016 and September 2018 and conducted at four sites in England and Wales. Nested within the feasibility trial was a qualitative study aimed at understanding how ED clinicians experienced and used the PPT. The qualitative methods included a focus group and telephone interviews with 9 ED clinicians. This study focused on participant perceptions of the feasibility and use of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice in the ED.

RESULTS

Clinical practice is reshaped as a result of the introduction of the STUMBL PPT into the clinical environment. The PPT enhanced reflexive awareness of prognostic practice; facilitated communication between patients and professionals; helps to guide patient outcomes; and provides a common ground for clinician discussion on prognostication.

CONCLUSIONS

The qualitative data collected offered useful insights into the ways in which the tool changes clinical practice. This was a small study of the effect of one kind of PPT on clinical practice. Nevertheless, this study maps areas in which clinical practice is affected by the introduction of a PPT into the clinical environment. More research is needed to better understand these effects, and to understand how these tools become embedded in clinical practice over the longer term.

Blunt chest trauma in the elderly: an expert practice review

Trauma in the elderly (>65 years) is an increasingly common presentation to the ED. A fall from standing height is the most common mechanism after which such patients present, and rib fracture is the most common non-spinal fracture. Thoracic injury in patients aged over 65 is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There are currently no universally applied guidelines for assessment, investigation and management of such patients. In this expert practice review, we discuss the evidence base and options for clinical management in this vulnerable patient group.

Assessing outcome measures used after rib fracture: A COSMIN systematic review

PURPOSE

The incidence of invasive treatment of rib fracture has increased significantly over the last decade however the evidence of improved patient outcomes to support this is lacking. A systematic review was performed to identify patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) used in the assessment of outcomes following chest wall injury. The quality of evidence for the psychometric properties of the identified PROMs was graded using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) methodology.

METHODS

Rib fracture studies measuring patient reported outcomes were identified using PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, AMED and PsycINFO. Methodological quality of measurement properties was evaluated with the COnsensus-based Standards for selection of health status Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist.

RESULTS

A total of 64 studies were identified including 19 different PROM instruments. Domains included in the reported PROMs included pain, breathlessness, general health quality of life, physical function and physiological health. No rib fracture specific PROM was identified. The most frequently reported instrument was the SF-36 reporting overall quality of life (HRQoL) although there was very low quality evidence for its content validity. There was low quality evidence to support good content validity for the Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, Brief Pain Index (BPI) and McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ). No PROM had undergone validation in a rib fracture population. The overall quality of the PROM development studies was poor. While we were unable to identify a clear "gold standard", based on the limited current evidence, we recommend that the EQ-5D-5L is used in combination with the MRC and BPI or MPQ for future rib fracture studies.

CONCLUSION

The lack of validated outcome measures for rib fracture patients is a significant limitation of the current literature. Further studies are needed to provide validated outcome measures to ensure accuracy of the reported results and conclusions. As interventions for rib fractures have become more common in both research and clinical practice this has become an urgent priority.

A multicentre randomised feasibility STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients: STUMBL Trial

OBJECTIVE

A new prognostic model has been developed and externally validated, the aim of which is to assist in the management of the blunt chest wall trauma patient in the emergency department (ED). The aim of this trial is to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a definitive impact trial investigating the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a new prognostic model for the management of patients with blunt chest wall trauma in the ED.

DESIGN

Stepped wedge feasibility trial.

SETTING

Four EDs in England and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult blunt chest wall trauma patients presenting to the ED with no concurrent, life-threatening injuries.

INTERVENTION

A prognostic model (the STUMBL score) to guide clinical decision-making.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: participant recruitment rate and clinicians' use of the STUMBL score. Secondary: composite outcome measure (mortality, pulmonary complications, delayed upgrade in care, unplanned representations to the ED), physical and mental components of quality of life, clinician feedback and health economic data gathering methodology for healthcare resource utilisation.

RESULTS

Quantitative data were analysed using the intention-to-treat principle. 176 patients were recruited; recruitment targets were achieved at all sites. Clinicians used the model in 96% of intervention cases. All feasibility criteria were fully or partially met. After adjusting for predefined covariates, there were no statistically significant differences between the control and intervention periods. Qualitative analysis highlighted that STUMBL was well-received and clinicians would support a definitive trial. Collecting data on intervention costs, health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use was feasible.

DISCUSSION

We have demonstrated that a fully powered randomised clinical trial of the STUMBL score is feasible and desirable to clinicians. Minor methodological modifications will be made for the full trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN95571506; Post-results.

Prognostic factors and prognostic models for renal cell carcinoma: a literature review

PURPOSE

Following curative treatment for localised renal cell carcinoma (RCC), up to 30% of patients develop tumour recurrence. Prognostic scores are essential to guide individualised surveillance protocols, patient counselling and potentially in the future to guide adjuvant therapy. In metastatic RCC, prognostic scores are routinely used for treatment selection in clinical practice as well as in all major trials.

METHODS

We performed a literature review on the current evidence based on prognostic factors and models for localised and metastatic RCC.

RESULTS

A number of prognostic factors have been identified, of which tumour node metastasis classification remains the most important. Multiple prognostic models and nomograms have been developed for localised disease, based on a combination of tumour stage, grade, subtype, clinical features, and performance status. However, there is poor level of evidence for their routine use. Prognostic scores for patients with metastatic RCC receiving targeted treatments are used routinely, but have limited accuracy. Molecular markers can improve the accuracy of established prognostic models, but frequently lack external, independent validation.

CONCLUSION

Several factors and models predict prognosis of localised and metastatic RCC. They represent valuable tools to provide estimates of clinically important endpoints, but their accuracy should be improved further. Validation of molecular markers is a future research priority.

Blunt chest trauma: a clinical chameleon

The incidence of blunt chest trauma (BCT) is greater than 15% of all trauma admissions to the emergency departments worldwide and is the second leading cause of death after head injury in motor vehicle accidents. The mortality due to BCT is inhomogeneously described ranging from 9% to 60%. BCT is commonly caused by a sudden high-speed deceleration trauma to the anterior chest, leading to a compression of the thorax. All thoracic structures might be injured as a result of the trauma. Complex cardiac arrhythmia, heart murmurs, hypotension, angina-like chest pain, respiratory insufficiency or distention of the jugular veins may indicate potential cardiac injury. However, on admission to emergency departments symptoms might be missing or may not be clearly associated with the injury. Accurate diagnostics and early management in order to prevent serious complications and death are essential for patients suffering a BCT. Optimal initial diagnostics includes echocardiography or CT, Holter-monitor recordings, serial 12-lead electrocardiography and measurements of cardiac enzymes. Immediate diagnostics leading to the appropriate therapy is essential for saving a patient’s life. The key aspect of the entire management, including diagnostics and treatment of patients with BCT, remains an interdisciplinary team involving cardiologists, cardiothoracic surgeons, imaging radiologists and trauma specialists working in tandem.