Does the 'Chinese New Year effect' exist? Hospital mortality in patients admitted to internal medicine departments during official consecutive holidays: a nationwide population-based cohort study

Effect of national holidays on health outcomes of patients receiving peritoneal dialysis in a single center over a ten-year period

BACKGROUND

National holidays are associated with high mortality in some diseases, but little is known about patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). The research aimed to investigate the impact of national holidays on the health outcomes of PD patients.

METHODS

Over ten years, all episodes of unplanned hospitalization, death, and peritonitis in PD patients were collected in our center. Seven national holidays in China were chosen, and non-holiday days were selected as the control period. The effect of national holidays was observed by comparing the hospitalization, death, and peritonitis rates between holiday and non-holiday groups.

RESULTS

There were 297 events in all holiday periods and 1247 in non-holiday periods. There is no significant difference in hospitalization rate between holiday and non-holiday groups (32.4% ± 6.4% vs. 29.2% ± 3.4%, p = 0.175). So is the death rate [6.3% (4.8-12.3%) vs.5.0% (4.2-8.9%), p = 0.324] and peritonitis rate [0.19 (0.13-0.53) vs. 0.22 (0.18-0.27), p = 0.445] between the two groups. Significant differences were observed in the distribution of peritonitis causes between the two groups (p = 0.017). The rate of secondary to other infections in the holiday group was significantly higher than in the non-holiday group (25.0 vs. 10.3%, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggested no national holiday effect on health outcomes of PD patients based on ten-year data in our center.

Ecological Momentary Assessment and Machine Learning for Predicting Suicidal Ideation Among Sexual and Gender Minority Individuals

Importance

Suicidality poses a serious global health concern, particularly in the sexual and gender minority population. While various studies have focused on investigating chronic stressors, the precise prediction effect of daily experiences on suicide ideation remains uncertain.

Objective

To test the extent to which mood fluctuations and contextual stressful events experienced by sexual and gender minority individuals may predict later short- and long-term suicide ideation.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This diagnostic study collected twice-daily data on mood states and stressful events from sexual and gender minority individuals over 25 days throughout 3 waves of the Chinese Lunar New Year (before, during, and after), and follow-up surveys assessing suicidal ideation were conducted 1, 3, and 8 months later. Online recruitment advertisements were used to recruit young adults throughout China. Eligible participants were self-identified as sexual and gender minority individuals aged 18 to 29 years. Those who were diagnosed with psychotic disorders (eg, schizophrenia spectrum or schizotypal disorder) or prevented from objective factors (ie, not having a phone or having an irregular sleep rhythm) were excluded. Data were collected from January to October 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

To predict short-term (1 month) and longer-term (3 and 8 months) suicidal ideation, the study tested several approaches by using machine learning including chronic stress baseline data (baseline approach), dynamic patterns of mood states and stressful events (ecological momentary assessment [EMA] approach), and a combination of baseline data and dynamic patterns (EMA plus baseline approach).

Results

A total of 103 sexual and gender minority individuals participated in the study (mean [SD] age, 24.2 [2.5] years; 72 [70%] female). Of these, 19 (18.4%; 95% CI, 10.9%-25.9%), 25 (24.8%; 95% CI, 16.4%-33.2%), 30 (29.4%; 95% CI, 20.6%-38.2%), and 32 (31.1%; 95% CI, 22.2%-40.0%) reported suicidal ideation at baseline, 1, 3, and 8 months follow-up, respectively. The EMA approach showed better performance than the baseline and baseline plus EMA approaches at 1-month follow-up (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.81) and slightly better performance on the prediction of suicidal ideation at 3 and 8 months' follow-up. In addition, the best approach predicting suicidal ideation was obtained during Lunar New Year period at 1-month follow-up, which had a mean AUC of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) and better performance at 3 and 8 months' follow-up (AUC, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.72-0.76 and AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74, respectively).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings in this study emphasize the importance of contextual risk factors experienced by sexual and gender minority individuals at different stages. The use of machine learning may facilitate the identification of individuals who are at risk and aid in the development of personalized process-based early prevention programs to mitigate future suicide risk.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Without SARS-CoV-2 Infection in an Internal Medicine Ward of a Tertiary Care Hospital in Portugal

INTRODUCTION

Despite the emergence of a new worldwide cause of death related to COVID-19, several studies have hypothesized that the international mortality rate attributed to non-COVID-19 causes was significantly higher during the COVID pandemic, questioning whether this excess in mortality is related only to COVID-19 or to the difficulties that the healthcare systems faced during the pandemic. Therefore, understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prognosis of patients without severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a major unmet need as this was overshadowed by the overwhelming number of patients with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study in the internal medicine non-COVID-19 wards of a tertiary care hospital in Portugal. A total of 2021 patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted between March and May of 2019 and 2020 were included. For each patient, we collected information regarding demographic characteristics, emergency department admission information, hospitalization information, date of discharge or death, health comorbidities, and current medication.

RESULTS

Data from 1013 patients in 2019 and 1008 patients in 2020 was analyzed. The patients' demographic characteristics, health comorbidities, and current medications were distributed in similar patterns in the two studied periods. There was a statistically significant difference in the in-hospital mortality in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection between 2019 and 2020 (12% vs 17%, p-value < 0.001) and in admission severity in hospitalized patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection between 2019 and 2020 (0.9 vs 0.6, p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our work showed a statistically significant increase in in-hospital mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection, which was not apparently explained by differences in the characteristics of hospitalized patients. As this is one of the first works describing the silent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal, we believe it holds an important value in the provision of bases for building up future health policies in case of new COVID-19 outbreaks or other medical emergencies.

Effect of the Chinese New Year Public Holiday on the Glycemic Control of T1DM With Intensive Insulin Therapy

AIMS

There is limited evidence that evaluates the glycemic control of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) during the Chinese New Year public holiday in China. The Chinese New Year public holiday represents various challenges to glycemic control, especially in T1DM patients, in China. We aimed to assess the effect of the Chinese New Year public holiday on several glucose metrics using flash glucose monitoring (FGM) in patients with T1DM.

METHODS

Complete FGM data for 1 week before, 1 week during and 1 week after the Chinese New Year public holiday were available for 71 T1DM patients treated with multiple daily insulin injection (MDI) therapy (n = 51) or continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) treatment (n = 20). The mean age of the study participants was 13 (9, 30) years. Of note, 59.2% of the patients (n = 42) were adults, and 40.8% of the patients (n = 29) were minors. The interval between each two adjacent periods was one week. The indicators of mean glucose, glucose variability and time in different glycemic ranges were analyzed.

RESULTS

The Chinese New Year public holiday was associated with an increase in mean blood glucose (8.4 ± 1.7 vs. 9.2 ± 2.5; P < 0.001) and time above range (TAR) (27.9% ± 16.6% vs. 35.0% ± 22.3%; P< 0.001) but a decrease in time in range (TIR) (65.1% ± 15.5% vs. 58.0% ± 19.0%; P < 0.001) and coefficient of variation (CV) (65.1% ± 15.5% vs. 58.0% ± 19.0%; P < 0.001). There was no significant difference in time below range (TBR). The glycemic control deteriorated during the Chinese New Year public holiday in our study population regardless of age. Interestingly, in the CSII group, none of the metrics of glucose control significantly changed during the Chinese New Year public holiday.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggested that less self-management may worsen glycemic control in the short term, indicating a need for more refined management algorithms during the Chinese New Year public holiday for T1DM patients.

Impact of holiday periods on survival following an in-hospital cardiac arrest

Introduction

Higher rates of mortality following an in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) has been shown during nights and weekends, changes in staff density and composition has been suggested as a possible explanation. Changes in hospital staffing patterns are also common during holiday periods.

Aim

To investigate whether holiday periods are associated with decreased survival following an IHCA.

Material and methods

All patients ≥18 years who experienced an IHCA at Karolinska University Hospital between 2006 and 2019 were included. Patients were identified via and data was collected from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Holiday was defined as two periods, a seven-week summer period and an approximately two-week Christmas period. The primary outcome was return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), secondary survival to hospital discharge. Logistic regression was performed to calculate odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjustment was done for known confounders.

Results

Out of 1936 registered cases, 264 (14%) occurred during holiday periods. Patient and event characteristics were similar on holidays compared to non-holidays. Both ratio for ROSC (45% and 55%, respectively) and survival (25% and 32% respectively) was poorer during holiday periods Adjusted OR for ROSC and survival was poorer during holiday periods compared non-holiday periods (OR 0.69 [95% CI, 0.53-0.92] and OR 0.69 [95% CI, 0.49-0.96], respectively).

Conclusion

Outcomes after IHCA was poorer during holiday periods compared to non-holiday periods even if patient and event characteristics was similar. Further research is needed to better understand to what degree staffing patterns and other factors contribute to the observed difference.

The Spring Festival Is Associated With Increased Mortality Risk in China: A Study Based on 285 Chinese Locations

Background

The Spring Festival is one of the most important traditional festivals in China. This study aimed to estimate the mortality risk attributable to the Spring Festival.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2017, daily meteorological, air pollution, and mortality data were collected from 285 locations in China. The Spring Festival was divided into three periods: pre-Spring Festival (16 days before Lunar New Year's Eve), mid-Spring Festival (16 days from Lunar New Year's Eve to Lantern Festival), and post-Spring Festival (16 days after Lantern Festival). The mortality risk attributed to the Spring Festival in each location was first evaluated using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), and then it was pooled using a meta-analysis model.

Results

We observed a dip/rise mortality pattern during the Spring Festival. Pre-Spring Festival was significantly associated with decreased mortality risk (ER: −1.58%, 95%CI: −3.09% to −0.05%), and mid-Spring Festival was unrelated to mortality risks, while post-Spring Festival was significantly associated with increased mortality risk (ER: 3.63%, 95%CI: 2.15–5.12%). Overall, a 48-day Spring Festival period was associated with a 2.11% (95%CI: 0.91–3.33%) increased mortality. We also found that the elderly aged over 64 years old, women, people with cardiovascular disease (CVD), and people living in urban areas were more vulnerable to the Spring Festival.

Conclusion

Our study found that the Spring Festival significantly increased the mortality risk in China. These findings suggest that it is necessary to develop clinical and public health policies to alleviate the mortality burden associated with the Spring Festival.

Holiday and weekend effects on mortality for acute myocardial infarction in Shanxi, China: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effects of holiday and weekend admission on in-hospital mortality for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in China.

METHODS

Patients with AMI in 31 tertiary hospitals in Shanxi, China from 2014 to 2017 were included (N = 54,968). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of holiday and weekend admission on in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Compared to non-holiday and weekday admissions, holiday and weekend admissions, respectively, were associated with increases in risk-adjusted mortality rates. Chinese National Day was associated with an additional 10 deaths per 1000 admissions (95% confidence interval (CI): (0, 20))-a relative increase from baseline mortality of 64% (95% CI: (1%, 128%)). Sunday was associated with an additional 4 deaths per 1000 admissions (95% CI: (0, 7))-a relative increase from baseline mortality of 23% (95% CI: (3%, 45%)). We found no evidence of gender differences in holiday or weekend effects on mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Holiday and weekend admissions were associated with in-hospital AMI mortality. The admissions on Chinese National Day and Sunday contributed to the observed "holiday effect" and "weekend effect," respectively.

Epidemiology of outpatient and inpatient eye injury in Taiwan: 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015

Purpose

To estimate the incidence rate of eye injuries (EI) requiring inpatient and outpatient treatment in Taiwan and compare the epidemiologic characteristics of EI (age, sex, treatment setting, seasonality, occupation, external cause, diagnosis, and surgery) in the years 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015.

Methods

We analyzed four random samples of 1,000,000 beneficiaries each from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program. The direct age-standardized rate, with 95% confidence interval (CI), was used to compare EI rates for the four calendar years. The chi-square test and chi-square test for trend were used to compare data for the four calendar years.

Results

Annual EI incidence rates were between 2.57% in 2000 and 3.28% in 2015. The age-standardized rates were 2.73% (95% CI, 2.70%–2.76%) in 2000, 3.37% (95% CI, 3.33%–3.41%) in 2005, 3.31% (95% CI, 3.28%–3.35%) in 2010, and 3.02% (95% CI, 2.99%–3.06%) in 2015. Manual workers had the highest EI incidence rate, followed by non-manual workers and civil servants. The proportion of EI requiring inpatient treatment declined from 1.34% in 2000 to 0.63% in 2015 (P <0.0001). Analysis of seasonality showed a consistent decrease in February in the four sampling years; however, this decrease in EI was only seen in outpatients, not in EI requiring hospitalization. The proportion of outpatients requiring surgery significantly decreased, from 2.53% in 2000 to 1.2% in 2015 (P<0.0001). However, the proportion of inpatients requiring surgery for EI as the principal diagnosis increased from 69.32% in 2000 to 83.02% in 2015 (P = 0.29), and the proportion of inpatients requiring surgery for EI as a secondary diagnosis increased from 54.86% in 2000 to 71.6% in 2015 (P = 0.0019). Among inpatients with EI, the most common cause of EI was a traffic accident (44.79%, especially motorcycles), followed by falls (9.75%) and homicide (6.05%).

Conclusion

In Taiwan, the annual EI incidence rate slightly increased from 2000 to 2005 and then decreased through 2015. The proportion of EI patients requiring hospitalization decreased from 1.34% in 2000 to 0.63% in 2015, but the percentage of inpatients requiring surgery increased. Traffic accidents (especially those involving motorcyclists) remained the predominant external cause of EI requiring hospitalization during the study period.