Diversity in the emergency care for febrile children in Europe: a questionnaire study

Which low urgent triaged febrile children are suitable for a fast track? An observational European study

BACKGROUND

The number of paediatric patients visiting the ED with non-urgent problems is increasing, leading to poor patient flow and ED crowding. Fast track aims to improve the efficiency of evaluation and discharge of low acuity patients. We aimed to identify which febrile children are suitable for a fast track based on presenting symptoms and management.

METHODS

This study is part of the Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe study, which is an observational study including routine data of febrile children <18 years attending 12 European EDs. We included febrile, low urgent children (those assigned a triage acuity of either 'standard' or 'non-urgent' using the Manchester Triage System) and defined children as suitable for fast track when they have minimal resource use and are discharged home. Presenting symptoms consisted of neurological (n=237), respiratory (n=8476), gastrointestinal (n=1953) and others (n=3473, reference group). Multivariable logistic regression analyses regarding presenting symptoms and management (laboratory blood testing, imaging and admission) were performed with adjustment for covariates: patient characteristics, referral status, previous medical care, previous antibiotic use, visiting hours and ED setting.

RESULTS

We included 14 139 children with a median age of 2.7 years (IQR 1.3-5.2). The majority had respiratory symptoms (60%), viral infections (50%) and consisted of self-referrals (69%). The neurological group received imaging more often (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). The respiratory group had fewer laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), were less frequently admitted (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), but received imaging more often (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0). Lastly, the gastrointestinal group had more laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 1.2. 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6).

CONCLUSION

We determined that febrile children triaged as low urgent with respiratory symptoms were most suitable for a fast track. This study provides evidence for which children could be triaged to a fast track, potentially improving overall patient flow at the ED.

Emergency medical services utilisation among febrile children attending emergency departments across Europe: an observational multicentre study

Children constitute 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) by emergency medical services (EMS). However, discordant EMS use in children occurs in 37-61% with fever as an important risk factor. We aimed to describe EMS utilisation among febrile children attending European EDs. This study is part of an observational multicentre study assessing management and outcome in febrile children up to 18 years (MOFICHE) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. Discordant EMS use was defined as the absence of markers of urgency including intermediate/high triage urgency, advanced diagnostics, treatment, and admission in children transferred by EMS. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between (1) EMS use and markers of urgency, and (2) patient characteristics and discordant EMS use after adjusting all analyses for the covariates age, gender, visiting hours, presenting symptoms, and ED setting. A total of 5464 (15%, range 0.1-42%) children attended the ED by EMS. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in the EMS group compared with the non-EMS group. Discordant EMS use occurred in 1601 children (29%, range 1-59%). Age and gender were not associated with discordant EMS use, whereas neurological symptoms were associated with less discordant EMS use (aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1-0.2), and attendance out of office hours was associated with more discordant EMS use (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.4-1.9). Settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED had more discordant EMS use (p < 0.05).  Conclusion: There is large practice variation in EMS use in febrile children attending European EDs. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in children in the EMS group. However, discordant EMS use occurred in 29%. Further research is needed on non-medical factors influencing discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe, so that pre-emptive strategies can be implemented. What is Known: •Children constitute around 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department by emergency medical services. •Discordant EMS use occurs in 37-61% of all children, with fever as most common presenting symptom for discordant EMS use in children. What is New: •There is large practice variation in EMS use among febrile children across Europe with discordance EMS use occurring in 29% (range 1-59%), which was associated with attendance during out of office hours and with settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED. •Future research is needed focusing on non-medical factors (socioeconomic status, parental preferences and past experience, healthcare systems, referral pathways, out of hours services provision) that influence discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe.

Are children with prolonged fever at a higher risk for serious illness? A prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the characteristics and clinical outcomes of children with fever ≥5 days presenting to emergency departments (EDs).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 European EDs.

PATIENTS

Consecutive febrile children <18 years between January 2017 and April 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

Children with fever ≥5 days and their risks for serious bacterial infection (SBI) were compared with children with fever <5 days, including diagnostic accuracy of non-specific symptoms, warning signs and C-reactive protein (CRP; mg/L).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SBI and other non-infectious serious illness.

RESULTS

3778/35 705 (10.6%) of febrile children had fever ≥5 days. Incidence of SBI in children with fever ≥5 days was higher than in those with fever <5 days (8.4% vs 5.7%). Triage urgency, life-saving interventions and intensive care admissions were similar for fever ≥5 days and <5 days. Several warning signs had good rule in value for SBI with specificities >0.90, but were observed infrequently (range: 0.4%-17%). Absence of warning signs was not sufficiently reliable to rule out SBI (sensitivity 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.95), negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.34 (0.22-0.54)). CRP <20 mg/L was useful for ruling out SBI (negative LR 0.16 (0.11-0.24)). There were 66 cases (1.7%) of non-infectious serious illnesses, including 21 cases of Kawasaki disease (0.6%), 28 inflammatory conditions (0.7%) and 4 malignancies.

CONCLUSION

Children with prolonged fever have a higher risk of SBI, warranting a careful clinical assessment and diagnostic workup. Warning signs of SBI occurred infrequently but, if present, increased the likelihood of SBI. Although rare, clinicians should consider important non-infectious causes of prolonged fever.

European study confirms the combination of fever and petechial rash as an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis

AIM

This study investigated febrile children with petechial rashes who presented to European emergency departments (EDs) and investigated the role that mechanical causes played in diagnoses.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with fever presenting to EDs in 11 European emergency departments in 2017-2018 were enrolled. The cause and focus of infection were identified and a detailed analysis was performed on children with petechial rashes. The results are presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

We found that 453/34010 (1.3%) febrile children had petechial rashes. The focus of the infection included sepsis (10/453, 2.2%) and meningitis (14/453, 3.1%). Children with a petechial rash were more likely than other febrile children to have sepsis or meningitis (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.3-13.1) and bacterial infections (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8) as well as need for immediate life-saving interventions (OR 6.6, 95% CI 4.4-9.5) and intensive care unit admissions (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.0-12.5).

CONCLUSION

The combination of fever and petechial rash is still an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis. Ruling out coughing and/or vomiting was insufficient to safely identify low-risk patients.

Availability and use of rapid diagnostic tests for the management of acute childhood infections in Europe: A cross-sectional survey of paediatricians

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care-tests (POCTs) have been advocated to optimise care in patients with infections but their actual use varies. This study aimed to estimate the variability in the adoption of current POCTs by paediatricians across Europe, and to explore the determinants of variability.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted of hospital and primary care paediatricians, recruited through professional networks. Questions focused on the availability and use of currently available POCTs. Data were analysed descriptively and using Median Odds Ratio (MOR) to measure variation between countries. Multilevel regression modelling using changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of models were used to assess the contribution of individual or workplace versus country level factors, to the observed variation. The commonest POCT was urine dipsticks (UD) which were available to >80% of primary care and hospital paediatricians in 68% (13/19) and 79% (23/29) countries, respectively. Availability of all POCTs varied between countries. In primary care, the country (MOR) varied from 1.61 (95%CI: 1.04-2.58) for lactate to 7.28 (95%CI: 3.04-24.35) for UD. In hospitals, the country MOR varied from 1.37 (95%CI:1.04-1.80) for lactate to 11.93 (95%CI:3.35-72.23) for UD. Most paediatricians in primary care (69%, 795/1154) and hospital (81%, 962/1188) would use a diagnostic test in the case scenario of an infant with undifferentiated fever. Multilevel regression modelling showed that the country of work was more important in predicting both the availability and use of POCTs than individual or workplace characteristics.

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variability in the adoption of POCTs for the management of acute infections in children across Europe. To inform future implementation of both existing and innovative tests, further research is needed to understand what drives the variation between countries, the needs of frontline clinicians, and the role of diagnostic tests in the management of acute childhood infections.

Research on point-of-care tests in outpatient care in Germany: A scoping review and definition of relevant endpoints in evaluation studies

BACKGROUND

The fast turnaround time and user-friendliness of point-of-care tests (POCTs) offer a great potential to improve outpatient health care where clinical decisions have to be made during the physician-patient encounter and time resources are limited. The aim of this scoping review is to describe the extent and nature as well as gaps in German research activities on POCT in outpatient care. In addition, we define research endpoints that should be addressed in the comprehensive evaluation of POCTs targeted for outpatient care.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review with a systematic literature search in Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane library and Google Scholar for German publications on POCT with relevance to German outpatient care published from January 2005 to November 2020.

RESULTS

Our literature search identified 2,200 unique records. After literature selection 117 articles were included in this scoping review. Just over half of the articles (67/117, 57.3%) were primary research studies with original data, while one third of all the studies (33.3%) were secondary research articles (e.g., review articles). The remaining articles were clinical recommendations / position papers (7/117, 6.0%) and other types of articles (3.4%). The majority of articles focused on POCT use in infectious diseases (44/117, 37.6%), diabetic syndromes (15.4%), cardiac disease (12.0%) or coagulopathies and thrombosis (10.3%), while the remaining articles did not specify the disease (13.7%) or investigated other diseases (11.1%). Similar to international studies, most primary research studies investigated the diagnostic performance of POCT (e.g., sensitivity, specificity). Evidence beyond diagnostic accuracy remains scarce, such as the impact on therapeutic decisions and practice routines, clinical effectiveness, and user perspectives. In line with this, interventional studies (such as RCTs) on the effectiveness of POCT use in German outpatient care are limited. We define six endpoint domains that should be addressed in the evaluation of POCTs targeted for outpatient care: (i) diagnostic performance, (ii) clinical performance, (iii) time and costs, (iv) impact on clinical routines / processes, (v) perspectives of medical professionals and patients, and (vi) broader aspects.

CONCLUSION

There is considerable research activity on POCTs targeted for use in outpatient care in Germany. Data on their potential benefits beyond diagnostic accuracy is often lacking and should be addressed in future POCT research studies.

Sex differences in febrile children with respiratory symptoms attending European emergency departments: An observational multicenter study

Objective

To assess sex differences in presentation and management of febrile children with respiratory symptoms attending European Emergency Departments.

Design and setting

An observational study in twelve Emergency Departments in eight European countries.

Patients

Previously healthy children aged 0–<18 years with fever (≥ 38°C) at the Emergency Department or in the consecutive three days before Emergency Department visit and respiratory symptoms were included.

Main outcome measures

The main outcomes were patient characteristics and management defined as diagnostic tests, treatment and admission. Descriptive statistics were used for patient characteristics and management stratified by sex. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between sex and management with adjustment for age, disease severity and Emergency Department. Additionally, subgroup analyses were performed in children with upper and lower respiratory tract infections and in children below five years.

Results

We included 19,781 febrile children with respiratory symptoms. The majority were boys (54%), aged 1–5 years (58%) and triaged as low urgent (67%). Girls presented less frequently with tachypnea (15% vs 16%, p = 0.002) and increased work of breathing (8% vs 12%, p<0.001) compared with boys. Girls received less inhalation medication than boys (aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74–0.90), but received antibiotic treatment more frequently than boys (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.15), which is associated with a higher prevalence of urinary tract infections. Amongst children with a lower respiratory tract infection and children below five years girls received less inhalation medication than boys (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66–0.89; aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72–0.90).

Conclusions

Sex differences concerning presentation and management are present in previously healthy febrile children with respiratory symptoms presenting to the Emergency Department. Future research should focus on whether these differences are related to clinicians’ attitudes, differences in clinical symptoms at the time of presentation and disease severity.

Characteristics and management of adolescents attending the ED with fever: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

Most studies on febrile children have focused on infants and young children with serious bacterial infection (SBI). Although population studies have described an increased risk of sepsis in adolescents, little is known about febrile adolescents attending the emergency department (ED). We aimed to describe patient characteristics and management of febrile adolescents attending the ED.

DESIGN AND SETTING

The MOFICHE/PERFORM study (Management and Outcome of Febrile Children in Europe/Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union), a prospective multicentre study, took place at 12 European EDs. Descriptive and multivariable regression analyses were performed, comparing febrile adolescents (12-18 years) with younger children in terms of patient characteristics, markers of disease severity (vital signs, clinical alarming signs), management (diagnostic tests, therapy, admission) and diagnosis (focus, viral/bacterial infection).

RESULTS

37 420 encounters were included, of which 2577 (6.9%) were adolescents. Adolescents were more often triaged as highly urgent (38.9% vs 34.5%) and described as ill appearing (23.1% vs 15.6%) than younger children. Increased work of breathing and a non-blanching rash were present less often in adolescents, while neurological signs were present more often (1% vs 0%). C reactive protein tests were performed more frequently in adolescents and were more often abnormal (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.7, 95% CI 1.5 to 1.9). Adolescents were more often diagnosed with SBI (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0) and sepsis/meningitis (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.0) and were more frequently admitted (aOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.4) and treated with intravenous antibiotics (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Although younger children presented to the ED more frequently, adolescents were more often diagnosed with SBI and sepsis/meningitis. Our data emphasise the importance of awareness of severe infections in adolescents.

Febrile children with comorbidities at the emergency department - a multicentre observational study

We aimed to describe characteristics and management of children with comorbidities attending European emergency departments (EDs) with fever. MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe) is a prospective multicentre study (12 European EDs, 8 countries). Febrile children with comorbidities were compared to those without in terms of patient characteristics, markers of disease severity, management, and diagnosis. Comorbidity was defined as a chronic underlying condition that is expected to last > 1 year. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, displaying adjusted odds ratios (aOR), adjusting for patient characteristics. We included 38,110 patients, of whom 5906 (16%) had comorbidities. Most common comorbidities were pulmonary, neurologic, or prematurity. Patients with comorbidities more often were ill appearing (20 versus 16%, p < 0.001), had an ED-Paediatric Early Warning Score of > 15 (22 versus 12%, p < 0.001), or a C-reactive protein > 60 mg/l (aOR 1.4 (95%CI 1.3-1.6)). They more often required life-saving interventions (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 2.2-3.3), were treated with intravenous antibiotics (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 2.1-2.5), and were admitted to the ward (aOR 2.2, 95%CI 2.1-2.4) or paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) (aOR 5.5, 95% CI 3.8-7.9). They were more often diagnosed with serious bacterial infections (aOR 1.8, 95%CI 1.7-2.0), including sepsis/meningitis (aOR 4.6, 95%CI 3.2-6.7). Children most at risk for sepsis/meningitis were children with malignancy/immunodeficiency (aOR 14.5, 8.5-24.8), while children with psychomotor delay/neurological disease were most at risk for life-saving interventions (aOR 5.3, 4.1-6.9) or PICU admission (aOR 9.7, 6.1-15.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show how children with comorbidities are a population at risk, as they more often are diagnosed with bacterial infections and more often require PICU admission and life-saving interventions.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• While children with comorbidity constitute a large part of ED frequent flyers, they are often excluded from studies.

WHAT IS NEW

• Children with comorbidities in general are more ill upon presentation than children without comorbidities. • Children with comorbidities form a heterogeneous group; specific subgroups have an increased risk for invasive bacterial infections, while others have an increased risk of invasive interventions such as PICU admission, regardless of the cause of the fever.

Guideline adherence in febrile children below 3 months visiting European Emergency Departments: an observational multicenter study

Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. There is practice variation in management due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence. We aimed to assess whether management in febrile children below 3 months attending European Emergency Departments (EDs) was according to the guidelines for fever. This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0-18 years) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. In febrile children below 3 months (excluding bronchiolitis), we analyzed actual management compared to the guidelines for fever. Ten EDs applied the (adapted) NICE guideline, and two EDs applied local guidelines. Management included diagnostic tests, antibiotic treatment, and admission. We included 913 children with a median age of 1.7 months (IQR 1.0-2.3). Management per ED varied as follows: use of diagnostic tests 14-83%, antibiotic treatment 23-54%, admission 34-86%. Adherence to the guideline was 43% (374/868) for blood cultures, 29% (144/491) for lumbar punctures, 55% (270/492) for antibiotic prescriptions, and 67% (573/859) for admission. Full adherence to these four management components occurred in 15% (132/868, range 0-38%), partial adherence occurred in 56% (484/868, range 35-77%).

CONCLUSION

There is large practice variation in management. The guideline adherence was limited, but highest for admission which implies a cautious approach. Future studies should focus on guideline revision including new biomarkers in order to optimize management in young febrile children.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. • There is practice variation in management of young febrile children due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence.

WHAT IS NEW

• Full guideline adherence is limited, whereas partial guideline adherence is moderate in febrile children below 3 months across Europe. • Guideline revision including new biomarkers is needed to improve management in young febrile children.

Rapid Viral Testing and Antibiotic Prescription in Febrile Children With Respiratory Symptoms Visiting Emergency Departments in Europe

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing often occurs in children with self-limiting respiratory tract infections, contributing to antimicrobial resistance. It has been suggested that rapid viral testing can reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. We aimed to assess the association between rapid viral testing at the Emergency Department (ED) and antibiotic prescription in febrile children.

METHODS

This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0-18 years) attending 12 European EDs. In children with respiratory symptoms visiting 6 EDs equipped with rapid viral testing, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis regarding rapid viral testing and antibiotic prescription adjusted for patient characteristics, disease severity, diagnostic tests, focus of infection, admission, and ED.

RESULTS

A rapid viral test was performed in 1061 children (8%) and not performed in 11,463 children. Rapid viral test usage was not associated with antibiotic prescription (aOR 0.9, 95% CI: 0.8-1.1). A positive rapid viral test was associated with less antibiotic prescription compared with children without test performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8), which remained significant after adjustment for CRP and chest radiograph result. Twenty percent of the positively tested children received antibiotics. A negative rapid viral test was not associated with antibiotic prescription (aOR 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid viral test usage did not reduce overall antibiotic prescription, whereas a positive rapid viral test did reduce antibiotic prescription at the ED. Implementation of rapid viral testing in routine emergency care and compliance to the rapid viral test outcome will reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing at the ED.

Diagnostic variation for febrile children in European emergency departments

The study aimed to explore the use of diagnostics for febrile children presenting to European emergency departments (EDs), the determinants of inter-hospital variation, and the association between test use and hospitalization. We performed a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional observational study involving 28 paediatric EDs from 11 countries. A total of 4560 children < 16 years were included, with fever as reason for consultation. We excluded neonates and children with relevant comorbidities. Our primary outcome was the proportion of children receiving testing after primary evaluation, by country and by focus of infection. Variability between hospitals and effects of blood testing on patient disposition were explored by multilevel regression analyses, adjusting for patient characteristics (age group, triage level, appearance, fever duration, focus of infection) and hospital type (academic, teaching, other). The use of routine diagnostics varied widely, mostly in the use of blood tests, ranging from 3 to 75% overall across hospitals. Age < 3 months, high-acuity triage level, ill appearance, and suspicion of urinary tract infection displayed the strongest association with blood testing (odds ratios (OR) of 8.71 (95% CI 5.23-14.53), 19.46 (3.66-103.60), 3.13 (2.29-4.26), 10.84 (6.35-18.50), respectively). Blood testing remained highly variable across hospitals (median OR of the final model 2.36, 1.98-3.54). A positive association was observed between blood testing and hospitalization (OR 13.62, 9.00-20.61).

CONCLUSION

the use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. Focus groups of participating sites should help define reasons for unexpected variation.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Although previous research has shown variation in the emergency department (ED) management of febrile children, there is limited information on the use of diagnostics in European EDs. • A deeper knowledge of variability and its determinants can steer optimization of care.

WHAT IS NEW

• The use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. • Data on between-centre comparison offer opportunities to further explore factors influencing unwarranted variation.

Responses of paediatric emergency departments to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: a cross-sectional survey study

OBJECTIVE

Understanding how paediatric emergency departments (PEDs) across Europe adapted their healthcare pathways in response to COVID-19 will help guide responses to ongoing waves of COVID-19 and potential future pandemics. This study aimed to evaluate service reconfiguration across European PEDs during the initial COVID-19 wave.

DESIGN

This cross-sectional survey included 39 PEDs in 17 countries. The online questionnaire captured (1) study site characteristics, (2) departmental changes and (3) pathways for children with acute illness pre and during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic (January-May 2020). Number of changes to health services, as a percentage of total possible changes encompassed by the survey, was compared with peak national SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates, and for both mixed and standalone paediatric centres.

RESULTS

Overall, 97% (n=38) of centres remained open as usual during the pandemic. The capacity of 18 out of 28 (68%) short-stay units decreased; in contrast, 2 units (7%) increased their capacity. In 12 (31%) PEDs, they reported acting as receiving centres for diverted children during the pandemic.There was minimal change to the availability of paediatric consultant telephone advice services, consultant supervision of juniors or presence of responsible specialists within the PEDs.There was no relationship between percentage of possible change at each site and the peak national SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate. Mixed paediatric and adult hospitals made 8% of possible changes and standalone paediatric centres made 6% of possible changes (p=0.086).

CONCLUSION

Overall, there was limited change to the organisation or delivery of services across surveyed PEDs during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Background

Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow.

Methods

The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0-18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

Findings

Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84).The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0..95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use.

Interpretation

Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow.

Funding

European Union, NIHR, NHS.

Impact of a clinical decision rule on antibiotic prescription for children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections presenting to European emergency departments: a simulation study based on routine data

BACKGROUND

Discriminating viral from bacterial lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children is challenging thus commonly resulting in antibiotic overuse. The Feverkidstool, a validated clinical decision rule including clinical symptoms and C-reactive protein, safely reduced antibiotic use in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTIs in a multicentre trial at emergency departments (EDs) in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES

Using routine data from an observational study, we simulated the impact of the Feverkidstool on antibiotic prescriptions compared with observed antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs at 12 EDs in eight European countries.

METHODS

We selected febrile children aged 1 month to 5 years with respiratory symptoms and excluded upper respiratory tract infections. Using the Feverkidstool, we calculated individual risks for bacterial LRTI retrospectively. We simulated antibiotic prescription rates under different scenarios: (1) applying effect estimates on antibiotic prescription from the trial; and (2) varying both usage (50%-100%) and compliance (70%-100%) with the Feverkidstool's advice to withhold antibiotics in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI (≤10%).

RESULTS

Of 4938 children, 4209 (85.2%) were at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI. Applying effect estimates from the trial, the Feverkidstool reduced antibiotic prescription from 33.5% to 24.1% [pooled risk difference: 9.4% (95% CI: 5.7%-13.1%)]. Simulating 50%-100% usage with 90% compliance resulted in risk differences ranging from 8.3% to 15.8%. Our simulations suggest that antibiotic prescriptions would be reduced in EDs with high baseline antibiotic prescription rates or predominantly (>85%) low/intermediate-risk children.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the Feverkidstool could reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs in European EDs.

Development and validation of a prediction model for invasive bacterial infections in febrile children at European Emergency Departments: MOFICHE, a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To develop and cross-validate a multivariable clinical prediction model to identify invasive bacterial infections (IBI) and to identify patient groups who might benefit from new biomarkers.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 emergency departments (EDs) in 8 European countries.

PATIENTS

Febrile children aged 0-18 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

IBI, defined as bacteraemia, meningitis and bone/joint infection. We derived and cross-validated a model for IBI using variables from the Feverkidstool (clinical symptoms, C reactive protein), neurological signs, non-blanching rash and comorbidity. We assessed discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds for IBI: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 16 268 patients, 135 (0.8%) had an IBI. The discriminative ability of the model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) in pooled cross-validations. The model performed well for the rule-out threshold of 0.1% (sensitivity 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99), negative LR 0.1 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) and for the rule-in threshold of 2.0% (specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.95), positive LR 8.4 (95% CI 6.9 to 10.0)). The intermediate thresholds of 0.1%-2.0% performed poorly (ranges: sensitivity 0.59-0.93, negative LR 0.14-0.57, specificity 0.52-0.88, positive LR 1.9-4.8) and comprised 9784 patients (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The rule-out threshold of this model has potential to reduce antibiotic treatment while the rule-in threshold could be used to target treatment in febrile children at the ED. In more than half of patients at intermediate risk, sensitive biomarkers could improve identification of IBI and potentially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions.

Variation in hospital admission in febrile children evaluated at the Emergency Department (ED) in Europe: PERFORM, a multicentre prospective observational study

Objectives

Hospitalisation is frequently used as a marker of disease severity in observational Emergency Department (ED) studies. The comparison of ED admission rates is complex in potentially being influenced by the characteristics of the region, ED, physician and patient. We aimed to study variation in ED admission rates of febrile children, to assess whether variation could be explained by disease severity and to identify patient groups with large variation, in order to use this to reduce unnecessary health care utilization that is often due to practice variation.

Design

MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe, part of the PERFORM study, www.perform2020.org), is a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data on febrile children regarding patient characteristics (age, referral, vital signs and clinical alarming signs), diagnostic tests, therapy, diagnosis and hospital admission.

Setting and participants

Data were collected on febrile children aged 0–18 years presenting to 12 European EDs (2017–2018).

Main outcome measures

We compared admission rates between EDs by using standardised admission rates after adjusting for patient characteristics and initiated tests at the ED, where standardised rates >1 demonstrate higher admission rates than expected and rates <1 indicate lower rates than expected based on the ED patient population.

Results

We included 38,120 children. Of those, 9.695 (25.4%) were admitted to a general ward (range EDs 5.1–54.5%). Adjusted standardised admission rates ranged between 0.6 and 1.5. The largest variation was seen in short admission rates (0.1–5.0), PICU admission rates (0.2–2.2), upper respiratory tract infections (0.4–1.7) and fever without focus (0.5–2.7). Variation was small in sepsis/meningitis (0.9–1.1).

Conclusions

Large variation exists in admission rates of febrile children evaluated at European EDs, however, this variation is largely reduced after correcting for patient characteristics and therefore overall admission rates seem to adequately reflect disease severity or a potential for a severe disease course. However, for certain patient groups variation remains high even after adjusting for patient characteristics.

Variation in antibiotic prescription rates in febrile children presenting to emergency departments across Europe (MOFICHE): A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

The prescription rate of antibiotics is high for febrile children visiting the emergency department (ED), contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Large studies at European EDs covering diversity in antibiotic and broad-spectrum prescriptions in all febrile children are lacking. A better understanding of variability in antibiotic prescriptions in EDs and its relation with viral or bacterial disease is essential for the development and implementation of interventions to optimise antibiotic use. As part of the PERFORM (Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union) project, the MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in Children in Europe) study aims to investigate variation and appropriateness of antibiotic prescription in febrile children visiting EDs in Europe.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Between January 2017 and April 2018, data were prospectively collected on febrile children aged 0-18 years presenting to 12 EDs in 8 European countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, Latvia, the Netherlands [n = 3], Spain, Slovenia, United Kingdom [n = 3]). These EDs were based in university hospitals (n = 9) or large teaching hospitals (n = 3). Main outcomes were (1) antibiotic prescription rate; (2) the proportion of antibiotics that were broad-spectrum antibiotics; (3) the proportion of antibiotics of appropriate indication (presumed bacterial), inappropriate indication (presumed viral), or inconclusive indication (unknown bacterial/viral or other); (4) the proportion of oral antibiotics of inappropriate duration; and (5) the proportion of antibiotics that were guideline-concordant in uncomplicated urinary and upper and lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs). We determined variation of antibiotic prescription and broad-spectrum prescription by calculating standardised prescription rates using multilevel logistic regression and adjusted for general characteristics (e.g., age, sex, comorbidity, referral), disease severity (e.g., triage level, fever duration, presence of alarming signs), use and result of diagnostics, and focus and cause of infection. In this analysis of 35,650 children (median age 2.8 years, 55% male), overall antibiotic prescription rate was 31.9% (range across EDs: 22.4%-41.6%), and among those prescriptions, the broad-spectrum antibiotic prescription rate was 52.1% (range across EDs: 33.0%-90.3%). After standardisation, differences in antibiotic prescriptions ranged from 0.8 to 1.4, and the ratio between broad-spectrum and narrow-spectrum prescriptions ranged from 0.7 to 1.8 across EDs. Standardised antibiotic prescription rates varied for presumed bacterial infections (0.9 to 1.1), presumed viral infections (0.1 to 3.3), and infections of unknown cause (0.1 to 1.8). In all febrile children, antibiotic prescriptions were appropriate in 65.0% of prescriptions, inappropriate in 12.5% (range across EDs: 0.6%-29.3%), and inconclusive in 22.5% (range across EDs: 0.4%-60.8%). Prescriptions were of inappropriate duration in 20% of oral prescriptions (range across EDs: 4.4%-59.0%). Oral prescriptions were not concordant with the local guideline in 22.3% (range across EDs: 11.8%-47.3%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated RTIs and in 45.1% (range across EDs: 11.1%-100%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated urinary tract infections. A limitation of our study is that the included EDs are not representative of all febrile children attending EDs in that country.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed wide variation between European EDs in prescriptions of antibiotics and broad-spectrum antibiotics in febrile children. Overall, one-third of prescriptions were inappropriate or inconclusive, with marked variation between EDs. Until better diagnostics are available to accurately differentiate between bacterial and viral aetiologies, implementation of antimicrobial stewardship guidelines across Europe is necessary to limit antimicrobial resistance.

Measuring vital signs in children with fever at the emergency department: an observational study on adherence to the NICE recommendations in Europe

Vital signs can help clinicians identify children at risk of serious illness. The NICE guideline for fever in under-fives recommends a routine measurement of temperature, heart rate, capillary refill and respiratory rate in all febrile children visiting the emergency department (ED). This study aims to evaluate the measurement of paediatric vital signs in European EDs, with specific attention to adherence to this NICE guideline recommendation. In a prospective observational study, we included 4560 febrile children under 16 years from the ED of 28 hospitals in 11 European countries (2014-2016). Hospitals were academic (n = 17), teaching (n = 10) and non-teaching (n = 1) and ranged in annual paediatric ED visits from 2700 to 88,000. Fifty-four percent were male, their median age was 2.4 years (IQR 1.1-4.7). Temperature was measured most frequently (97%), followed by capillary refill (86%), heart rate (73%), saturation (56%) and respiratory rate (51%). In children under five (n = 3505), a complete measurement of the four NICE-recommended vital signs was performed in 48% of patients. Children under 1 year of age, those with an urgent triage level and with respiratory infections had a higher likelihood of undergoing complete measurements. After adjustment for these factors, variability between countries remained. Conclusion: Measuring vital signs in children with fever in the ED occurs with a high degree of practice variation between different European hospitals, and adherence to the NICE recommendation is moderate. Our study is essential as a benchmark for current clinical practice, in order to tailor implementation strategies to different European settings.What is Known:• Vital signs can quickly provide information on disease severity in children in the emergency department (ED), and the NICE guideline for fever in under-fives recommends to routinely measure temperature, heart rate, capillary refill and respiratory rate.• Data regarding measurement of vital signs in routine practice across European EDs is currently unavailable.What is New:• Measurement of vital signs in febrile children is highly variable across European EDs and across patient subgroups, and compliance to the NICE recommendation is <50%.• Children under 1 year of age, those with an urgent triage level and with respiratory infections had a higher likelihood of undergoing complete measurements.