Shock index as a predictor of hospital admission and inpatient mortality in a US national database of emergency departments

The Respiratory Adjusted Shock Index at Admission Is a Valuable Predictor of In-Hospital Outcomes for Elderly Emergency Patients with Medical Diseases at a Japanese Community General Hospital

Background: The respiratory adjusted shock index (RASI) is a risk score whose usefulness in patients with sepsis and trauma has previously been reported. However, its relevance in elderly emergency patients with medical diseases is yet to be clarified. This study assessed the usefulness of the RASI, which can be evaluated without requiring special equipment, to provide objective and rapid emergency responses. Methods: In this retrospective study, we recruited patients with medical diseases, aged 65 years or older, who were transported to the emergency room from Tokushima Prefectural Kaifu Hospital and underwent arterial blood gas testing from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2023. We investigated the association of the RASI with other indices, including the lactate level, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Shock Index (SI), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, quick SOFA (qSOFA) score, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Results: In this study, we included 260 patients (mean age, 86 years), of whom 234 were admitted to the hospital; 27 and 49 patients died within 7 and 30 days of admission, respectively. The RASI was positively correlated with the lactate level, NEWS2, SI, and increase in the SOFA score (p < 0.001). The RASI was higher in patients with a SIRS or qSOFA score ≥ 2 than in those without (p < 0.001). It predicted death within 7 and 30 days of admission with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73-0.87), sensitivity of 96.3%, and specificity of 53.6% when the cutoff value was set to 1.58 and with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66-0.81), sensitivity of 69.4%, and specificity of 70.6% when the cutoff value was set to 1.83, respectively. Conclusions: The RASI is a simple indicator that can be used for predicting in-hospital outcomes in elderly emergency patients with medical diseases. Larger prospective studies based on this study are needed.

Shock Index is a Stronger Predictor of Outcomes in Older Compared to Younger Patients

INTRODUCTION

The shock index (SI) is a known predictor of unfavorable outcomes in trauma. This study seeks to examine and compare the SI values between geriatric patients and younger adults.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of the Trauma Quality Improvement Program database from 2017 to 2019. All patients≥ 25 y with injury severity score ≥ 16 were included. Age groups were defined as 25-44 y (group A), 45-64 y (group B), and ≥65 y (group C). SI was calculated for all patients. The primary outcome was mortality and secondary outcomes were need for blood transfusion and need for major surgical intervention (consisting angiography, exploratory laparotomy, and thoracotomy).

RESULTS

A total of 244,943 patients were studied. The SI was highest in group A (0.82 ± 0.33) and lowest in group C (0.62 ± 0.30) (P < 0.001). Mortality rate of group C (17%) was significantly higher than group A (9.7%) and B (11.3%) (P < 0.001). In group A, each 0.1 increase in SI was associated with mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 1.079), need for blood transfusion (OR = 1.225) and need for major surgical intervention (OR = 1.347) (P < 0.001 for all). In group C, each 0.1 increase in SI was associated with mortality (OR = 1.126), need for blood transfusion (OR = 1.318), and need for major surgical intervention (OR = 1.648) (P < 0.001 for all). The area under the curve of SI was significantly higher in group C compared to other groups for needing a major surgical intervention and need for blood transfusion (P < 0.05 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the significance of the SI as a valuable indicator in geriatric patients with severe trauma. The findings show that SI predicts outcomes in geriatrics more strongly than in younger counterparts.

Association between the shock index on admission and in-hospital mortality in the cardiac intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

An elevated shock index (SI) predicts worse outcomes in multiple clinical arenas. We aimed to determine whether the SI can aid in mortality risk stratification in unselected cardiac intensive care unit patients.

METHODS

We included admissions to the Mayo Clinic from 2007 to 2015 and stratified them based on admission SI. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and predictors of in-hospital mortality were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

We included 9,939 unique cardiac intensive care unit patients with available data for SI. Patients were grouped by SI as follows: < 0.6, 3,973 (40%); 0.6-0.99, 4,810 (48%); and ≥ 1.0, 1,156 (12%). After multivariable adjustment, both heart rate (adjusted OR 1.06 per 10 beats per minute higher; CI 1.02-1.10; p-value 0.005) and systolic blood pressure (adjusted OR 0.94 per 10 mmHg higher; CI 0.90-0.97; p-value < 0.001) remained associated with higher in-hospital mortality. As SI increased there was an incremental increase in in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.07 per 0.1 beats per minute/mmHg higher, CI 1.04-1.10, p-Value < 0.001). A higher SI was associated with increased mortality across all examined admission diagnoses.

CONCLUSION

The SI is a simple and universally available bedside marker that can be used at the time of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in cardiac intensive care unit patients.

Predictors of Short-Term Trauma Laparotomy Outcomes in an Integrated Military-Civilian Health System: A 23-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Trauma laparotomy (TL) remains a cornerstone of trauma care. We aimed to investigate prehospital measures associated with in-hospital mortality among casualties subsequently undergoing TLs in civilian hospitals. Methods: This retrospective cohort study cross-referenced the prehospital and hospitalization data of casualties treated by Israel Defense Forces-Medical Corps teams who later underwent TLs in civilian hospitals between 1997 and 2020. Results: Overall, we identified 217 casualties treated by IDF-MC teams that subsequently underwent a TL, with a mortality rate of 15.2% (33/217). The main mechanism of injury was documented as penetrating for 121/217 (55.8%). The median heart rate and blood pressure were within the normal limit for the entire cohort, with a low blood pressure predicting mortality (65 vs. 127, p < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, prehospital endotracheal intubation (ETI), emergency department Glasgow coma scores of 3-8, and the need for a thoracotomy or bowel-related procedures were significantly associated with mortality (OR 6.8, p < 0.001, OR = 48.5, p < 0.001, and OR = 4.61, p = 0.002, respectively). Conclusions: Prehospital interventions introduced throughout the study period did not lead to an improvement in survival. Survival was negatively influenced by prehospital ETI, reinforcing previous observations of the potential deleterious effects of definitive airways on hemorrhaging trauma casualties. While a low blood pressure was a predictor of mortality, the median systolic blood pressure for even the sickest patients (ISS > 16) was within normal limits, highlighting the challenges in triage and risk stratification for trauma casualties.

RAPID-ED: A predictive model for risk assessment of patient's early in-hospital deterioration from emergency department

Introduction

The objective of this multi-center retrospective cohort study was to devise a predictive tool known as RAPID-ED. This model identifies non-traumatic adult patients at significant risk for cardiac arrest within 48 hours post-admission from the emergency department.

Methods

Data from 224,413 patients admitted through the emergency department (2016-2020) was analyzed, incorporating vital signs, lab tests, and administered therapies. A multivariable regression model was devised to anticipate early cardiac arrest. The efficacy of the RAPID-ED model was evaluated against traditional scoring systems like National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and its predictive ability was gauged via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in both hold-out validation set and external validation set.

Results

RAPID-ED outperformed traditional models in predicting cardiac arrest with an AUC of 0.819 in the hold-out validation set and 0.807 in the external validation set. In this critical care update, RAPID-ED offers an innovative approach to assessing patient risk, aiding emergency physicians in post-discharge care decisions from the emergency department. High-risk score patients (≥13) may benefit from early ICU admission for intensive monitoring.

Conclusion

As we progress with advancements in critical care, tools like RAPID-ED will prove instrumental in refining care strategies for critically ill patients, fostering an improved prognosis and potentially mitigating mortality rates.

Association of Shock Index with Echocardiographic Parameters in Cardiac Intensive Care Unit

BACKGROUND

A high shock index (SI), the ratio of heart rate (HR) to systolic blood pressure (SBP), has been associated with unfavorable outcomes. We sought to determine the hemodynamic underpinnings of an elevated SI using 2-D and doppler Transthoracic Echocardiography (TTE) in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients.

METHODS

We included Mayo Clinic CICU admissions from 2007 to 2018 who were in sinus rhythm at the time of TTE. The SI was calculated using HR and SBP at the time of TTE. Patients were grouped according to SI: <0.7, 4012 (64%); 0.7-0.99, 1764 (28%); and ≥ 1.0, 513 (8%). Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to assess associations between continuous variables.

RESULTS

We included 6289 unique CICU patients, 58% of whom had acute coronary syndrome. The median age was 67.9 years old and 37.8% were females. The mean SI was 0.67 BPM/mmHg. As the SI increased, markers of left ventricular (LV) systolic function and forward flow decreased, including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), fractional shortening, left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) velocity time integral (VTI), stroke volume, LV stroke work index, and cardiac power output. Biventricular filling pressures increased, and markers of right ventricular function worsened with rising SI. Most TTE measurements reflecting LV function and forward flow were inversely correlated with SI, including LV stroke work index (r = -0.59) and LVOT VTI (r = -0.41), as were both systemic vascular resistance index (r = -0.43) and LVEF (r = -0.23).

CONCLUSION

CICU patients with elevated SI have worse biventricular function and systemic hemodynamics, particularly decreased stroke volume and related calculated TTE parameters. The SI is an easily available marker that can be used to identify CICU patients with unfavorable hemodynamics who may require further assessment.

Cardiovascular collapse during mechanical thrombectomy for acute pulmonary embolism and the role of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in patient rescue

BACKGROUND

Driven by the ability to avoid thrombolytics and provide a one stop procedure with immediate hemodynamic improvement, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) devices for the treatment of intermediate-to-high risk pulmonary embolism (PE). This study investigated the incidence and outcomes of cardiovascular collapse during MT procedures and demonstrates the role of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in salvaging patients.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective review included patients with PE undergoing MT with the FlowTriever device between 2017 and 2022. Patients presenting periprocedural cardiac arrest were identified and their perioperative characteristics and postoperative outcomes were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 151 patients with a mean age of 64 ± 14 years who presented with intermediate-to-high risk PE received LBAT procedures during the study period. The simplified PE severity score was ≥1 in 83% of cases and the average RV/LV ratio was 1.6 ± 0.5, with and elevated troponin in 84%. Technical success was achieved in 98.7% and a significant decrease in pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) was observed (37 mm Hg vs 56 mm Hg; P < .0001). Intraoperative cardiac arrest occurred in nine patients (6%). These patients were more likely to present PASP of ≥70 mm Hg (84% vs 14%; P < .001), were more hypotensive upon admission (systolic of 94 ± 14 mm Hg vs 119 ± 23 mm Hg; P = .004), presented lower oxygen saturation levels (87 ± 6% vs 92 ± 6%; P = .023) and were more likely to present with a history of recent surgery (67% vs 18%; P = .004). Four patients were rescued successfully with ECMO and their residual PE was subsequently removed before discharge by surgical embolectomy in two of the four cases and repeat MT in the other two. All five patients (3%) who did not receive ECMO support expired intraoperatively. The overall 30-day mortality was 8% with no death occurring in patients who were salvaged with ECMO.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-bore aspiration thrombectomy for acute PE is associated with favorable technical outcomes, but the concern for acute cardiac decompensation is non-negligible in patients presenting with high-risk features and a PASP of ≥70 mm Hg. ECMO can help to salvage some of these patients and should be considered in the treatment algorithms of patients deemed at high risk.

Sex Dimorphism in Outcome of Trauma Patients Presenting with Severe Shock: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Background: The objective of this study was to determine the association between sex and outcome among severely injured patients who were admitted in severe shock. Methods: A retrospective multicenter study was performed in trauma patients (Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16) aged ≥ 16 presenting with severe shock (Shock Index > 1.3) over a 4-year period. To determine if sex was associated with mortality, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, blood transfusion and in-hospital complications, multivariable logistic regressions were performed. Results: In total, 189 patients were admitted to the Emergency Department in severe shock. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that female sex was independently associated with a decreased likelihood of acute kidney injury (OR 0.184; 95% CI 0.041-0.823; p = 0.041) compared to the male sex. A significant association between female sex and mortality, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, other complications and packed red blood cells transfusion after admission could not be confirmed. Conclusion: Female trauma patients in severe shock were significantly less likely to develop AKI during hospital stay. These results could suggest that female trauma patients may manifest a better-preserved physiologic response to severe shock when compared to their male counterparts. Prospective studies with a larger study population are warranted.

The hypoxia-age-shock index at triage to predict the outcomes of Covid-19 patients

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused a severe burden on medical professionals, as the rapid disposition of patients is important. Therefore, we aimed to develop a new clinical assessment tool based on the shock index (SI) and age-shock index (ASI). We proposed the hypoxia-age-shock index (HASI) and determined the usability of triage for COVID-19 infected patients in the first scene.

METHODS

The predictive power for three indexes on mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and endotracheal intubation rate was evaluated using the receiver operating curve (ROC). We used DeLong's method for comparing the ROCs.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) for ROC on mortality for SI, ASI, and HASI were 0.546, 0.771, and 0.773, respectively. The AUC on ICU admission mortality for SI, ASI, and HASI were 0.581, 0.700, and 0.743, respectively. The AUC for intubation for SI, ASI, and HASI were 0.592, 0.708, and 0.757, respectively. The AUC differences between HASI and SI showed statistically significant (P = 0.001) results on mortality, ICU admission, and intubation. Additionally, statistically significant results were found for the AUC difference between the HASI and ASI on ICU admission and intubation (P = 0.001 and P = 0.004, respectively).

CONCLUSION

HASI can provide a better prediction compared to ASI on ICU admission and endotracheal intubation. HASI was more sensitive in mortality, ICU admission, and intubation prediction than the ASI.

Shock Index for the Prediction of Interventions and Mortality in Patients With Blunt Thoracic Trauma

INTRODUCTION

Shock index (SI) is a bedside simple scoring tool; however, it has not yet been tested in blunt thorax trauma (BTT). We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of SI for chest interventions (thoracostomy tube or thoracotomy), blood transfusion, and mortality in patients with BTT. We hypothesized that high SI is associated with worse outcomes in patients with BTT.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of all BTT patients (chest Abbreviated Injury Score [AIS] > 1) hospitalized in a level 1 trauma center between 2011 and 2020. Patients with AIS >1 for head or abdominal injuries and patients undergoing open reduction and internal fixation surgery or penetrating injuries were excluded. Patients were categorized into two groups (low SI <0.80 versus high SI ≥0.80) based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1645 patients were admitted with BTT; of them, 24.5% had high SI. The mean age was 39.2 ± 15.2 y, and most were males (91%). Patients with high SI were younger, had sustained severer injuries, and required more chest interventions (P = 0.001), blood transfusion (P = 0.001), and massive transfusion protocol activation (P = 0.001) compared with low SI group. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.6%, which was more in the high SI group (8.2% versus 0.8%; P = 0.001). SI significantly correlated with age (r = -0.281), injury severity score (r = 0.418), Glasgow Come Score on arrival (r = -0.377), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (r = -0.144), Revised Trauma Score (r = -0.219), serum lactate (r = 0.434), blood transfusion units (r = 0.418), and chest AIS (r = 0.066). SI was an independent predictor of mortality (odds ratio 3.506; 95% confidence interval 1.389-8.848; P = 0.008), and this effect persisted after adjustment for chest intervention (odds ratio 2.923; 95% confidence interval 1.146-7.455; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study highlights the prognostic value of SI as a rapid bedside tool to predict the use of interventions and the risk of mortality in patients with BTT. The study findings help the emergency physicians for early and appropriate risk stratification and triaging of patients with BTT.

Comparison of different scoring systems in predicting mortality and postoperative complications in acute care surgery patients at a Saudi Academic Centre

PURPOSE

Emergency surgery carries an increased risk of death and complications. Scoring systems can help identify patients at higher risk of mortality and complications. Scoring systems can also help benchmark acute care services. This study aims to compare different scoring systems in predicting outcomes among acute care surgery patients.

METHODS

Our study is a retrospective cohort study that included all adult emergency surgery admissions between 2017 and 2019. Data were obtained from patients' electronic health records. Same admission mortality and postoperative complications were collected. Data were recorded to calculate the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification system (ASA-PS), Shock Index Score (SI), Age Shock Index Score (AgeSI), and the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS). The probability of death and complications was correlated with each scoring system and was assessed by calculating the c-statistic.

RESULTS

During the study period, 1606 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria. The mortality rate was 2.2%, complication rate was 18.7%. ESS predicted mortality with a c-statistic of 0.87 better than ASA-PS, AgeSI, and SI with a calculated c-statistic of 0.81, 0.74, and 0.57, respectively. ESS also predicted the occurrence of complications with a c-statistic of 0.83 better than ASA-PS, AgeSI, and SI with a calculated c-statistic of 0.72, 0.71, and 0.63, respectively.

CONCLUSION

ESS demonstrated a better prognostic accuracy for hospital mortality and postoperative complications than other prognostic scoring systems. Our findings suggest that a scoring system designed for the acute care surgical population may provide enhanced prognostic performance over other surgical prognostic scoring systems.

ED point-of-care ultrasonography is associated with earlier drainage of pericardial effusion: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between emergency department point-of-care cardiac ultrasonography (POCUS) utilization and time to pericardial effusion drainage during an 8-year period when the emergency ultrasound program was established at our institution.

METHODS

We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study in patients undergoing pericardiocentesis or other procedure for evacuation of pericardial effusion. Data was collected using both direct queries to the electronic health record database and two-examiner chart review. The primary outcome was time to intervention for pericardial effusion drainage. Multivariable Cox regression, with and without inverse probability weighting for likelihood to receive POCUS, was used to determine the association between POCUS and time to intervention. Secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

257 patient encounters were included with 137 receiving POCUS and 120 who did not. The proportion of patients receiving POCUS increased from 18.5% to 69.5% during the early to late periods of the study. POCUS was associated with an earlier median time to intervention of 21.6 h (95% CI 17.2, 24.2) compared to 34.6 h (27.0, 50.5) in the No POCUS group. After adjustment for patient demographics, anticoagulation, time of presentation and hemodynamic instability, POCUS was associated with earlier intervention (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.56, 2.77]). POCUS use was not associated with a difference in 28-day mortality, which was evaluated as a secondary outcome. However, diagnosis of pericardial effusion by the ED physician using any means (POCUS or other imaging) was associated with decreased 28-day mortality (9.7% vs. 26.0%, -16.3% for POCUS [95% CI -29.1, -3.5]).

CONCLUSION

POCUS was associated with an earlier time to intervention for pericardial effusions after adjustment for multiple confounding factors. Failure to diagnose pericardial effusion in the ED using any diagnostic testing including POCUS, was associated with increased 28-day mortality.

KABUL AIRPORT SUICIDE BOMBING ATTACK: MASS CASUALTY MANAGEMENT AT THE EMERGENCY'NGO HOSPITAL

BACKGROUND

Terrorist attacks with large numbers of civilian victims are not uncommon in war-torn countries, and present a unique challenge for health care facilities with limited resources. However, these events are largely under-reported and little is known about how the mass casualty events (MCE) are handled outside of a military setting.

METHODS

This study is a retrospective analysis of the MCE which ensued the Kabul Airport suicide attack (26th August 2021) at the Kabul EMERGENCY'NGO Hospital (Afghanistan).

RESULTS

Within six hours 93 causalities presented at our hospital. Out of them, 36 severe injured were admitted. Mean age was 30.8 years (SD 10.1). The most common injury mechanism was shell fragments. The most common injury site was head (63%; 23/36), followed by limbs (55.5%; 20/36) and thoracoabdominal region (30.5%; 11/36). Combined injuries occurred in 38.9% of cases. Patients receiving surgery presented more combined injuries in comparison with patients receiving only medical treatment (47.1% vs 31.6%). Thoraco-abdomen (25.0% vs 15.4%) and/or extremity injury (42.9% vs 28.6%) were more prevalent in the surgical group. Thirty major surgical procedures were carried out on 17 patients in the nine hours following the first arrival. The rate of Intensive Care Unit/High Dependency Unit admission was 36.1% and the 30-day in-hospital mortality was 16.6% (6/36). All deaths were recorded in the first 24 hours and none of them received surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

A large number of wounded patients must be anticipated after suicide bombing attacks. The authors report the challenges faced and key aspects of their management of MCEs.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Retrospective analysis/incident management.

Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

(1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children.

DESIGN/SETTING

Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018).

PATIENTS

Febrile children with measured blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8.

CONCLUSIONS

High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.

Trajectories of Vital Signs and Risk of In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Background: Little is known about the trajectories of vital signs prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), which could explain the heterogeneous processes preceding this event. We aimed to identify clinically relevant subphenotypes at high risk of IHCA in the emergency department (ED).

Methods: This retrospective cohort study used electronic clinical warehouse data from a tertiary medical center. We retrieved data from 733,398 ED visits over a 7-year period. We selected one ED visit per person and retrieved patient demographics, triage data, vital signs (systolic blood pressure [SBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation), selected laboratory markers, and IHCA status. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed.

Results: There were 37,697 adult ED patients with a total of 1,507,121 data points across all vital-sign categories. Three to four trajectory groups per vital-sign category were identified, and the following five trajectory groups were associated with a higher rate of IHCA: low and fluctuating SBP, high and fluctuating HR, persistent hypothermia, recurring tachypnea, and low and fluctuating oxygen saturation. The IHCA-prone trajectory group was associated with a higher triage level and a higher mortality rate, compared to other trajectory groups. Except for the persistent hypothermia group, the other four trajectory groups were more likely to have higher levels of C-reactive protein, lactic acid, cardiac troponin I, and D-dimer. Multivariable analysis revealed that hypothermia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.20; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.35–3.57) and recurring tachypnea (aOR 2.44; 95%CI, 1.24–4.79) were independently associated with IHCA.

Conclusions: We identified five novel vital-sign sub-phenotypes associated with a higher likelihood of IHCA, with distinct patterns in clinical course and laboratory markers. A better understanding of the pre-IHCA vital-sign trajectories may help with the early identification of deteriorating patients.

An Optimized Machine Learning Model Accurately Predicts In-Hospital Outcomes at Admission to a Cardiac Unit

Risk stratification at the time of hospital admission is of paramount significance in triaging the patients and providing timely care. In the present study, we aim at predicting multiple clinical outcomes using the data recorded during admission to a cardiac care unit via an optimized machine learning method. This study involves a total of 11,498 patients admitted to a cardiac care unit over two years. Patient demographics, admission type (emergency or outpatient), patient history, lab tests, and comorbidities were used to predict various outcomes. We employed a fully connected neural network architecture and optimized the models for various subsets of input features. Using 10-fold cross-validation, our optimized machine learning model predicted mortality with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.967 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.963–0.972), heart failure AUC of 0.838 (CI: 0.825–0.851), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction AUC of 0.832 (CI: 0.821–0.842), pulmonary embolism AUC of 0.802 (CI: 0.764–0.84), and estimated the duration of stay (DOS) with a mean absolute error of 2.543 days (CI: 2.499–2.586) of data with a mean and median DOS of 6.35 and 5.0 days, respectively. Further, we objectively quantified the importance of each feature and its correlation with the clinical assessment of the corresponding outcome. The proposed method accurately predicts various cardiac outcomes and can be used as a clinical decision support system to provide timely care and optimize hospital resources.

Early detection of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at high risk of clinical deterioration: Utility of emergency department shock index

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 outbreak has put an unprecedented strain on Emergency Departments (EDs) and other critical care resources. Early detection of patients that are at high risk of clinical deterioration and require intensive monitoring, is key in ED evaluation and disposition. A rapid and easy risk-stratification tool could aid clinicians in early decision making. The Shock Index (SI: heart rate/systolic blood pressure) proved useful in detecting hemodynamic instability in sepsis and myocardial infarction patients. In this study we aim to determine whether SI is discriminative for ICU admission and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational, single-center study. All patients ≥18 years old who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (defined as: positive result on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test) between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020 were included for analysis. Data were collected from electronic medical patient records and stored in a protected database. ED shock index was calculated and analyzed for its discriminative value on in-hospital mortality and ICU admission by a ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 411 patients were included. Of all patients 249 (61%) were male. ICU admission was observed in 92 patients (22%). Of these, 37 patients (40%) died in the ICU. Total in-hospital mortality was 28% (114 patients). For in-hospital mortality the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.86 was not discriminative (AUC 0.49 (95% CI: 0.43-0.56)), with a sensitivity of 12.3% and specificity of 93.6%. For ICU admission the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.57 was also not discriminative (AUC 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.62)), with a sensitivity of 78.3% and a specificity of 34.2%.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, SI measured at ED presentation was not discriminative for ICU admission and was not useful for early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration.

The Usefulness of Shock Index and Modified Shock Index in Predicting the Outcome of COVID-19 Patients

Objective:

The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of shock index (SI) and modified shock index (mSI) in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement and in-hospital mortality among coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients who are admitted to the emergency department (ED). Likewise, the effects of patients’ conditions such as age, gender, and comorbidity on prognosis will be analyzed.

Methods:

The files were retrospectively scanned for all COVID-19 patients over the age of 18 years who were admitted to the ED and hospitalized between January 1, 2021, and March 15, 2021. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess each scoring system discriminatory for predicting in-hospital mortality and ICU admission.

Results:

There were 464 patients included in this study. The mean age of the patients was 62.4 ± 16.7, of which 245 were men and 219 were women. The most common comorbidity in patients was hypertension (200; 43.1%), followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (174; 37.5%), and coronary artery disease (154; 33.2%). In terms of in-hospital mortality, the AUC of SI, and mSI were 0.719 and 0.739, respectively. In terms of an ICU requirement, the AUC of SI, and mSI were 0.704 and 0.729, respectively.

Conclusion:

In this study, it was concluded that SI and mSI are useful in predicting in-hospital mortality and ICU requirement in COVID-19 patients. In addition, another important result of the study is that advanced age, male gender, and hypertension may be associated with a poor prognosis.