Role of hospital strain in determining outcomes for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England

Measures and Impact of Caseload Surge During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 pandemic surges strained hospitals globally. We performed a systematic review to examine measures of pandemic caseload surge and its impact on mortality of hospitalized patients.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language studies published between December 1, 2019, and November 22, 2023, which reported the association between pandemic "surge"-related measures and mortality in hospitalized patients.

DATA EXTRACTION

Three authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed individual study risk of bias. We assessed measures of surge qualitatively across included studies. Given multidomain heterogeneity, we semiquantitatively aggregated surge-mortality associations.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of 17,831 citations, we included 39 studies, 17 of which specifically described surge effects in ICU settings. The majority of studies were from high-income countries ( n = 35 studies) and included patients with COVID-19 ( n = 31). There were 37 different surge metrics which were mapped into four broad themes, incorporating caseloads either directly as unadjusted counts ( n = 11), nested in occupancy ( n = 14), including additional factors (e.g., resource needs, speed of occupancy; n = 10), or using indirect proxies (e.g., altered staffing ratios, alternative care settings; n = 4). Notwithstanding metric heterogeneity, 32 of 39 studies (82%) reported detrimental adjusted odds/hazard ratio for caseload surge-mortality outcomes, reporting point estimates of up to four-fold increased risk of mortality. This signal persisted among study subgroups categorized by publication year, patient types, clinical settings, and country income status.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic caseload surge was associated with lower survival across most studies regardless of jurisdiction, timing, and population. Markedly variable surge strain measures precluded meta-analysis and findings have uncertain generalizability to lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). These findings underscore the need for establishing a consensus surge metric that is sensitive to capturing harms in everyday fluctuations and future pandemics and is scalable to LMICs.

COVID-19 Admission Rates and Changes in Care Quality in US Hospitals

Importance

Unprecedented increases in hospital occupancy rates during COVID-19 surges in 2020 caused concern over hospital care quality for patients without COVID-19.

Objective

To examine changes in hospital nonsurgical care quality for patients without COVID-19 during periods of high and low COVID-19 admissions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the 2019 and 2020 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases. Data were obtained for all nonfederal, acute care hospitals in 36 states with admissions in 2019 and 2020, and patients without a diagnosis of COVID-19 or pneumonia who were at risk for selected quality indicators were included. The data analysis was performed between January 1, 2023, and March 15, 2024.

Exposure

Each hospital and week in 2020 was categorized based on the number of COVID-19 admissions per 100 beds: less than 1.0, 1.0 to 4.9, 5.0 to 9.9, 10.0 to 14.9, and 15.0 or greater.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were rates of adverse outcomes for selected quality indicators, including pressure ulcers and in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, acute stroke, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hip fracture, and percutaneous coronary intervention. Changes in 2020 compared with 2019 were calculated for each level of the weekly COVID-19 admission rate, adjusting for case-mix and hospital-month fixed effects. Changes during weeks with high COVID-19 admissions (≥15 per 100 beds) were compared with changes during weeks with low COVID-19 admissions (<1 per 100 beds).

Results

The analysis included 19 111 629 discharges (50.3% female; mean [SD] age, 63.0 [18.0] years) from 3283 hospitals in 36 states. In weeks 18 to 48 of 2020, 35 851 hospital-weeks (36.7%) had low COVID-19 admission rates, and 8094 (8.3%) had high rates. Quality indicators for patients without COVID-19 significantly worsened in 2020 during weeks with high vs low COVID-19 admissions. Pressure ulcer rates increased by 0.09 per 1000 admissions (95% CI, 0.01-0.17 per 1000 admissions; relative change, 24.3%), heart failure mortality increased by 0.40 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 0.18-0.63 per 100 admissions; relative change, 21.1%), hip fracture mortality increased by 0.40 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 0.04-0.77 per 100 admissions; relative change, 29.4%), and a weighted mean of mortality for the selected indicators increased by 0.30 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 0.14-0.45 per 100 admissions; relative change, 10.6%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, COVID-19 surges were associated with declines in hospital quality, highlighting the importance of identifying and implementing strategies to maintain care quality during periods of high hospital use.

The association of demographics, frailty and multiple health conditions with outcomes from acute medical admissions to hospitals in England: exploratory analysis of an administrative dataset

Emergency and acute hospital services in England are under increasing pressure. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between key case-mix indicators and outcomes for adults admitted to hospital with an acute medical condition in England. All patients aged ≥16 years admitted to hospital in England as an acute unselected medical admission and who survived to discharge during the financial year 2021-2022 were included. Length of hospital stay was the primary outcome of interest. Data were available for 1,586,168 unique patients. A case-mix index was developed with a score that ranged from 0 to 12. Frailty was the most important variable in the index, followed by multiple health conditions and patient age. The mean case-mix score across hospital trusts in England ranged from 5.3 to 7.8. The case-mix index will support initiatives to better understand factors contributing to outcomes from acute medical admissions to hospital.