Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality: a validation study in Tanzania and Zimbabwe

Linkage Case Management and Posthospitalization Outcomes in People With HIV: The Daraja Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Despite the widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART), people with HIV still experience high mortality after hospital admission.

Objective

To determine whether a linkage case management intervention (named "Daraja" ["bridge" in Kiswahili]) that was designed to address barriers to HIV care engagement could improve posthospital outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Single-blind, individually randomized clinical trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the Daraja intervention. The study was conducted in 20 hospitals in Northwestern Tanzania. Five hundred people with HIV who were either not treated (ART-naive) or had discontinued ART and were hospitalized for any reason were enrolled between March 2019 and February 2022. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either the Daraja intervention or enhanced standard care and were followed up for 12 months through March 2023.

Intervention

The Daraja intervention group (n = 250) received up to 5 sessions conducted by a social worker at the hospital, in the home, and in the HIV clinic over a 3-month period. The enhanced standard care group (n = 250) received predischarge HIV counseling and assistance in scheduling an HIV clinic appointment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 12 months after enrollment. Secondary outcomes related to HIV clinic attendance, ART use, and viral load suppression were extracted from HIV medical records. Antiretroviral therapy adherence was self-reported and pharmacy records confirmed perfect adherence.

Results

The mean age was 37 (SD, 12) years, 76.8% were female, 35.0% had CD4 cell counts of less than 100/μL, and 80.4% were ART-naive. Intervention fidelity and uptake were high. A total of 85 participants (17.0%) died (43 in the intervention group; 42 in the enhanced standard care group); mortality did not differ by trial group (17.2% with intervention vs 16.8% with standard care; hazard ratio [HR], 1.01; 95% CI, 0.66-1.55; P = .96). The intervention, compared with enhanced standard care, reduced time to HIV clinic linkage (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.24-1.82; P < .001) and ART initiation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.28-1.89; P < .001). Intervention participants also achieved higher rates of HIV clinic retention (87.4% vs 76.3%; P = .005), ART adherence (81.1% vs 67.6%; P = .002), and HIV viral load suppression (78.6% vs 67.1%; P = .01) at 12 months. The mean cost of the Daraja intervention was about US $22 per participant including startup costs.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among hospitalized people with HIV, a linkage case management intervention did not reduce 12-month mortality outcomes. These findings may help inform decisions about the potential role of linkage case management among hospitalized people with HIV.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03858998.

Child maltreatment and associated sociodemographic factors among children affected by HIV/AIDS in Ghana: a multi-informant perspective

ABSTRACTChild maltreatment is considered a major public health concern among children because they can cause significant physical and psychological problems. Child maltreatment is widespread but often underestimated. Surprisingly, there is hardly any data on child maltreatment and any associated sociodemographic factors children affected by HIV/AIDS in low-income countries. This study employed cross-sectional, quantitative survey that involved 291 children aged 10-17 years and their caregivers in the Lower Manya Krobo District, Ghana and examined their exposure to and experience of child maltreatment. The results show that at least one form of maltreatment was reported by approximately 90% of the children, and it was significantly higher among orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) as compared with comparison children. Older age, frequent changes in residence, non-schooling and living with many siblings are associated with child maltreatment. The results demonstrate that maltreatment among children affected by HIV/AIDS are not rare, and that the dysfunction family conditions that they find themselves bear systemic risks for maltreatment. It is important that culturally appropriate and evidence-based interventions are implemented to address the maltreatment.

Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction.

RESULTS

Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations.

CONCLUSION

Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42020186886.

Development of the Verbal Autopsy Instrument for COVID-19 (VAIC)

BACKGROUND

Improving accuracy of identification of COVID-19-related deaths is essential to public health surveillance and research. The verbal autopsy, an established strategy involving an interview with a decedent's caregiver or witness using a semi-structured questionnaire, may improve accurate counting of COVID-19-related deaths.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and pilot-test the Verbal Autopsy Instrument for COVID-19 (VAIC) and a death adjudication protocol using it.

METHODS/KEY RESULTS

We used a multi-step process to design the VAIC and a protocol for its use. We developed a preliminary version of a verbal autopsy instrument specifically for COVID. We then pilot-tested this instrument by interviewing respondents about the deaths of 15 adults aged ≥65 during the initial COVID-19 surge in New York City. We modified it after the first 5 interviews. We then reviewed the VAIC and clinical information for the 15 deaths and developed a death adjudication process/algorithm to determine whether the underlying cause of death was definitely (40% of these pilot cases), probably (33%), possibly (13%), or unlikely/definitely not (13%) COVID-19-related. We noted differences between the adjudicated cause of death and a death certificate.

CONCLUSIONS

The VAIC and a death adjudication protocol using it may improve accuracy in identifying COVID-19-related deaths.

Cause-specific mortality estimates for Malaysia in 2013: results from a national sample verification study using medical record review and verbal autopsy

Background

Mortality indicators are essential for monitoring population health. Although Malaysia has a functional death registration system, the quality of information on causes of death still needs improvement, since approximately 30% of deaths are classified to poorly defined causes. This study was conducted to verify registered causes in a sample of deaths in 2013 and utilise the findings to estimate cause-specific mortality indicators for Malaysia in 2013.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study involving a nationally representative sample of 14,497 deaths distributed across 19 districts. Registered causes of deaths were verified using standard medical record review protocols for hospital deaths, and locally adapted international standard verbal autopsy procedures for deaths outside hospitals. The findings were used to measure the validity and reliability of the registration data, as well as to establish plausible cause-specific mortality fractions for hospital and non-hospital deaths, which were subsequently used as the basis for estimating national cause-specific mortality indicators.

Results

The overall response rate for the study was 67%. Verified causes of 5041 hospital deaths and 3724 deaths outside hospitals were used to derive national mortality estimates for 2013 by age, sex and cause. The study was able to reclassify most of the ill-defined deaths to a specific cause. The leading causes of deaths for males were Ischaemic Heart Disease (15.4%), Cerebrovascular diseases (13.7%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (8.5%) and Road Traffic Accident (8.0%). Among females, the leading causes were Cerebrovascular diseases (18.3%), Ischaemic Heart Disease (12.7%), Lower Respiratory Infections (11.5%) and Diabetes Mellitus (7.2%).

Conclusions

Investigation of registered causes of death using verbal autopsy and medical record review yielded adequate information to enable estimation of cause-specific mortality indicators in Malaysia. Strengthening the national mortality statistics system must be made a priority as it is a core data source for policy and evaluation of the public health and healthcare sectors in Malaysia.

Protocol for the evaluation of the population-level impact of Zimbabwe's prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission program option B+: a community based serial cross-sectional study

Background

WHO recommends that HIV infected women receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) minimally during pregnancy and breastfeeding (“Option B”), or ideally throughout their lives regardless of clinical stage (“Option B+”) (Coovadia et al., Lancet 379:221–228, 2012). Although these recommendations were based on clinical trials demonstrating the efficacy of ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding, the population-level effectiveness of Option B+ is unknown, as are retention on ART beyond the immediate post-partum period, and the relative impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ compared to Option A (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 62:148–151, 2013; Ahmed et al., Curr Opin HIV AIDS 8:473–488, 2013). To address these issues, we conducted an impact evaluation of Zimbabwe’s prevention of mother to child transmission programme conducted between 2011 and 2018 using serial, community-based cross-sectional serosurveys, which spanned changes in WHO recommendations. Here we describe the rationale for the design and analysis.

Methods/design

Our method is to survey mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. We collect questionnaires, blood samples from mothers and babies for HIV antibody and viral load testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/babies. Using this approach, we collected data from two previous time points: 2012 (pre-Option A standard of care), 2014 (post-Option A / pre-Option B+) and will collect a third round of data in 2017–18 (post Option B+ implementation) to monitor population-level trends in mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) and HIV-free infant survival. In addition, we will collect detailed information on facility level factors that may influence service delivery and costs.

Discussion

Although the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) has been well-documented in randomized trials, little evidence exists on the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ or the influence of the facility on implementation (Siegfried et al., Cochrane Libr 7:CD003510, 2017). This study will provide essential data on these gaps and will provide estimates on retention in care among Option B+ clients after the breastfeeding period.

Trial registration

NCT03388398 Retrospectively registered January 3, 2018.

Neuropsychiatric manifestations among HIV-1 infected African patients receiving efavirenz-based cART with or without tuberculosis treatment containing rifampicin

Purpose

Efavirenz-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with neuropsychiatric adverse events. We investigated the time to onset, duration, clinical implications, impact of pharmacogenetic variations, and anti-tuberculosis co-treatment on efavirenz-associated neuropsychiatric manifestations.

Methods

Prospective cohort study of cART naïve HIV patients with or without tuberculosis (HIV-TB) co-infection treated with efavirenz-based cART. Rifampicin-based anti-tuberculosis therapy was initiated 4 weeks prior to efavirenz-based cART in HIV-TB patients. Data on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and a 29-item questionnaire on neuropsychiatric manifestations were collected for 16 weeks after cART initiation. Genotyping for CYP2B6, CYP3A5, SLCO1B1, and ABCB1 and quantification of efavirenz plasma concentration were done on the 4th and 16th week.

Results

Data from 458 patients (243 HIV-only and 215 HIV-TB) were analyzed. Overall incidence of neuropsychiatric manifestations was 57.6% being higher in HIV-only (66.7%) compared to HIV-TB patients (47.4%) (p < 0.01). HIV-only patients were more symptomatic, with proportionately higher grades of manifestations compared to HIV-TB patients. Median time to manifestations was 1 week after cART initiation in HIV-only and 6 weeks after anti-TB (i.e., 2 weeks after cART initiation) in HIV-TB patients. HIV-only patients had significantly higher efavirenz plasma concentrations at 4 weeks after cART compared to HIV-TB patients. No association of sex or genotype was seen in relation to neuropsychiatric manifestations. Risk for neuropsychiatric manifestations was three times more in HIV-only patients compared to HIV-TB (p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Incidence of neuropsychiatric manifestations during early initiation of efavirenz-based cART is high in Tanzanian HIV patients. Risk of neuropsychiatric manifestations is lower in HIV patients co-treated with rifampicin containing anti-TB compared to those treated with efavirenz-based cART only.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00228-018-2499-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Measuring mortality due to HIV-associated tuberculosis among adults in South Africa: Comparing verbal autopsy, minimally-invasive autopsy, and research data

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to reduce tuberculosis (TB) deaths by 95% by 2035; tracking progress requires accurate measurement of TB mortality. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes do not differentiate between HIV-associated TB and HIV more generally. Verbal autopsy (VA) is used to estimate cause of death (CoD) patterns but has mostly been validated against a suboptimal gold standard for HIV and TB. This study, conducted among HIV-positive adults, aimed to estimate the accuracy of VA in ascertaining TB and HIV CoD when compared to a reference standard derived from a variety of clinical sources including, in some, minimally-invasive autopsy (MIA).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Decedents were enrolled into a trial of empirical TB treatment or a cohort exploring diagnostic algorithms for TB in South Africa. The WHO 2012 instrument was used; VA CoD were assigned using physician-certified VA (PCVA), InterVA-4, and SmartVA-Analyze. Reference CoD were assigned using MIA, research, and health facility data, as available. 259 VAs were completed: 147 (57%) decedents were female; median age was 39 (interquartile range [IQR] 33-47) years and CD4 count 51 (IQR 22-102) cells/μL. Compared to reference CoD that included MIA (n = 34), VA underestimated mortality due to HIV/AIDS (94% reference, 74% PCVA, 47% InterVA-4, and 41% SmartVA-Analyze; chance-corrected concordance [CCC] 0.71, 0.42, and 0.31, respectively) and HIV-associated TB (41% reference, 32% PCVA; CCC 0.23). For individual decedents, all VA methods agreed poorly with reference CoD that did not include MIA (n = 259; overall CCC 0.14, 0.06, and 0.15 for PCVA, InterVA-4, and SmartVA-Analyze); agreement was better at population level (cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy 0.78, 0.61, and 0.57, for the three methods, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Current VA methods underestimate mortality due to HIV-associated TB. ICD and VA methods need modifications that allow for more specific evaluation of HIV-related deaths and direct estimation of mortality due to HIV-associated TB.

'They Say HIV is a Punishment from God or from Ancestors': Cross-Cultural Adaptation and Psychometric Assessment of an HIV Stigma Scale for South African Adolescents Living with HIV (ALHIV-SS)

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 90 % of the world's adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV). HIV-stigma and the resultant fear of being identified as HIV-positive can compromise the survival of these youth by undermining anti-retroviral treatment initiation and adherence. To date, no HIV-stigma measures have been validated for use with ALHIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reports on a two-stage study in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Firstly, we conducted a cross-cultural adaptation of an HIV stigma scale, previously used with US ALHIV. One-on-one semi-structured cognitive interviews were conducted with 9 urban and rural ALHIV. Three main themes emerged: 1) participants spoke about experiences of HIV stigma specific to a Southern African context, such as anticipating stigma from community members due to 'punishment from God or ancestors'; 2) participants' responses uncovered discrepancies between what the items intended to capture and how they understood them and 3) participants' interpretation of wording uncovered redundant items. Items were revised or removed in consultation with participants. Secondly, we psychometrically assessed and validated this adapted ALHIV stigma scale (ALHIV-SS). We used total population sampling in 53 public healthcare facilities with community tracing. 721 ALHIV who were fully aware of their status were identified and interviewed for the psychometric assessment. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a 3-factor structure of enacted, anticipated and internalized stigma. The removal of 3 items resulted in a significant improvement in model fit (Chi²(df) = 189.83 (33), p < .001) and the restricted model fitted the data well (RMSEA = .017; CFI/TLI = .985/.980; SRMR = .032). Standardized factor loadings of indicators onto the latent variable were acceptable for all three measures (.41-.96). Concurrent criterion validity confirmed hypothesized relationships. Enacted stigma was associated with higher AIDS symptomatology (r = .146, p < .01) and depression (r = .092, p < .01). Internalized stigma was correlated with higher depression (r = .340, p < .01), higher AIDS symptomatology (r = .228, p < .01) and low social support (r = -.265, p < .01). Anticipated stigma was associated with higher depression (r = .203, p < .01) and lower social support (r = -.142, p < .01). The resulting ALHIV-SS has 10 items capturing all three HIV stigma mechanisms experienced by ALHIV. ALHIV-SS will be valuable for evaluating rates and types of stigma, as well as effectiveness of stigma-reduction interventions among ALHIV in Southern Africa.

Multi-informant perspective on psychological distress among Ghanaian orphans and vulnerable children within the context of HIV/AIDS

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge about the psychosocial distress of children affected by human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ghana, to aid the planning of services. This study investigated mental health problems among children affected by HIV/AIDS, compared with control groups of children orphaned by other causes, and non-orphans.

METHOD

The study employed a cross-sectional survey that interviewed 291 children and their caregivers. Both children and caregivers completed the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire that measured children's psychosocial wellbeing. Verbal autopsy was used to identify whether children lost one or both parents from AIDS.

RESULTS

The results indicated that controlling for relevant sociodemographic factors, both children's self-reports and caregivers' reports indicate that both children living with HIV/AIDS-infected caregivers and children orphaned by AIDS were at heightened risk for mental health problems than both children orphaned by other causes and non-orphans. The findings further indicated that a significant proportion of orphaned and vulnerable children exhibited symptoms for depression and other psychiatric disorders (approximately 63%) compared with 7% among the non-orphaned group. Caregivers gave higher ratings for children on externalizing problems and lower on internalizing problems, and vice versa when the children's self-reports were analysed.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that both children and their informants have diverse yet complementary perspectives on psychological outcomes. The study discusses the theoretical and practical implications of these findings and urgently calls for necessary intervention programmes that target all children affected by HIV/AIDS to effectively alleviate psychological distress and enhance the mental health of these children.

Option A improved HIV-free infant survival and mother to child HIV transmission at 9-18 months in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the impact of Option A on HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in Zimbabwe.

DESIGN

Serial cross-sectional community-based serosurveys.

METHODS

We analyzed serosurvey data collected in 2012 and 2014 among mother-infant pairs from catchment areas of 132 health facilities from five of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Eligible infants (alive or deceased) were born 9-18 months before each survey to mothers at least 16 years old. We randomly selected mother-infant pairs and conducted questionnaires, verbal autopsies, and collected blood samples. We estimated the HIV-free infant survival and MTCT rate within each catchment area and compared the 2012 and 2014 estimates using a paired t test and number of HIV infections averted because of the intervention.

RESULTS

We analyzed 7249 mother-infant pairs with viable maternal specimens collected in 2012 and 8551 in 2014. The mean difference in the catchment area level MTCT between 2014 and 2012 was -5.2 percentage points (95% confidence interval = -8.1, -2.3, P < 0.001). The mean difference in the catchment area level HIV-free survival was 5.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval = 2.6, 8.5, P < 0.001). Between 2012 and 2014, 1779 infant infections were averted compared with the pre-Option A regimen. The association between HIV-free infant survival and duration of Option A implementation was NS at the multivariate level (P = 0.093).

CONCLUSION

We found a substantial and statistically significant increase in HIV-free survival and decrease in MTCT among infants aged 9-18 months following Option A rollout in Zimbabwe. This is the only evaluation of Option A and shows the effectiveness of Option A and Zimbabwe's remarkable progress toward eMTCT.

Reliability of reporting of HIV status and antiretroviral therapy usage during verbal autopsies: a large prospective study in rural Malawi

Objective

Verbal autopsies (VAs) are interviews with a relative or friend of the deceased; VAs are a technique used in surveillance sites in many countries with incomplete death certification. The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy and validity of data on HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) usage reported in VAs and their influence on physician attribution of cause of death.

Design

This was a prospective cohort study.

Methods

The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site monitors demographic events in a population in a rural area of northern Malawi; a VA is attempted on all deaths reported. VAs are reviewed by clinicians, who, with additional HIV test information collected pre-mortem, assign a cause of death. We linked HIV/ART information reported by respondents during adult VAs to database information on HIV testing and ART use and analysed agreement using chi-square and kappa statistics. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyse factors associated with agreement.

Results

From 2003 to 2014, out of a total of 1,952 VAs, 80% of respondents reported the HIV status of the deceased. In 2013–2014, this figure was 99%. Of those with an HIV status known to the study, there was 89% agreement on HIV status between the VA and pre-mortem data, higher for HIV-negative people (92%) than HIV-positive people (83%). There was 84% agreement on whether the deceased had started ART, and 72% of ART initiation dates matched within 1 year.

Conclusions

In this population, HIV/ART information was often disclosed during a VA and matched well with other data sources. Reported HIV/ART status appears to be a reliable source of information to help classification of cause of death.

Socio-economic differences in HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To quantify socio-economic differences in the risk of HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa for different measures of socio-economic status.

METHODS

Systematic literature search in Web of Knowledge and PubMed. Measures of relative risk (RR) were pooled separately for education, income, assets score and employment status as measures of socio-economic status, using inverse-variance weighted DerSimonian-Laird random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Ten studies were eligible for inclusion comprising over 175 000 participants and 6700 deaths. For income (RR 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.09), assets score (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12-2.36) and employment status (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.21-1.92), persons of low socio-economic status had an over 50% higher risk of dying from HIV/AIDS. The RR of 1.10 for education was not significant (95% CI 0.74-1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should identify effective strategies to reduce HIV/AIDS mortality and alleviate the consequences of HIV/AIDS deaths, particularly for poorer households.

Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS)

The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS) is part of Kisesa OpenCohort HIV Study located in a rural area of North-Western Tanzania. Since its establishment in 1994, information on pregnancies, births, marriages, migrations and deaths have been monitored and updated between one and three times a year by trained fieldworkers. Other research activities implemented in the cohort include: sero surveys which have been conducted every 2–3 years to collect socioeconomic data, HIV sero status and health knowledge attitude and behaviour in adults aged 15 years or more living in the area; verbal autopsy (VA) interviews conducted to establish cause of death in all deaths encountered in the area; Llnking data collected at health facilities to community-based data; monitoring voluntary counselling and testing (VCT); and assessing uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART). In addition, within the community, qualitative studies have been conducted to address issues linked to HIV stigma, the perception of ART access and adherence.

In 2014, the population was over 35 000 individuals. Magu HDSS has contributed to Tanzanian estimates of fertility and mortality, and is a member of the INDEPTH network. Demographic data for Magu HDSS are available via the INDEPTH Network’s Sharing and Accessing Repository (iSHARE) and applications to access HDSS data for collaborative analysis are encouraged.

Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A

Objective

We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country.

Methods

In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9–18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities.

Findings

Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7–92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9–11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1–92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9–18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1–11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively.

Conclusion

By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+).

Deriving causes of child mortality by re-analyzing national verbal autopsy data applying a standardized computer algorithm in Uganda, Rwanda and Ghana

Background

To accelerate progress toward the Millennium Development Goal 4, reliable information on causes of child mortality is critical. With more national verbal autopsy (VA) studies becoming available, how to improve consistency of national VA derived child causes of death should be considered for the purpose of global comparison. We aimed to adapt a standardized computer algorithm to re–analyze national child VA studies conducted in Uganda, Rwanda and Ghana recently, and compare our results with those derived from physician review to explore issues surrounding the application of the standardized algorithm in place of physician review.

Methods and Findings

We adapted the standardized computer algorithm considering the disease profile in Uganda, Rwanda and Ghana. We then derived cause–specific mortality fractions applying the adapted algorithm and compared the results with those ascertained by physician review by examining the individual– and population–level agreement. Our results showed that the leading causes of child mortality in Uganda, Rwanda and Ghana were pneumonia (16.5–21.1%) and malaria (16.8–25.6%) among children below five years and intrapartum–related complications (6.4–10.7%) and preterm birth complications (4.5–6.3%) among neonates. The individual level agreement was poor to substantial across causes (kappa statistics: –0.03 to 0.83), with moderate to substantial agreement observed for injury, congenital malformation, preterm birth complications, malaria and measles. At the population level, despite fairly different cause–specific mortality fractions, the ranking of the leading causes was largely similar.

Conclusions

The standardized computer algorithm produced internally consistent distribution of causes of child mortality. The results were also qualitatively comparable to those based on physician review from the perspective of public health policy. The standardized computer algorithm has the advantage of requiring minimal resources from the health care system and represents a promising way to re–analyze national or sub-national VA studies in place of physician review for the purpose of global comparison.

Perceived social support disparities among children affected by HIV/AIDS in Ghana: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

The study investigated whether perceived social support varied among children who have lost their parents to AIDS, those who have lost their parents to other causes, those who are living with HIV/AIDS-infected caregivers and children from intact families (comparison group).

METHOD

This study employed cross-sectional, quantitative survey that involved 291 children aged 10-18 years in the Lower Manya Krobo District of Ghana and examined their social support disparities.

RESULTS

Multivariate linear regressions indicate that children living with HIV/AIDS-infected caregivers reported significantly lower levels of social support compared with AIDS-orphaned children, other-orphaned children and non-orphaned children independent of socio-demographic covariates. Children who have lost their parents to other causes and other-orphaned children reported similar levels of social support. In terms of sources of support, all children orphans and vulnerable children were more likely to draw support from friends and significant others rather than from the family.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate a need to develop interventions that can increase levels of social support for orphaned and vulnerable children within the context of HIV/AIDS in Ghana, particularly networks that include the family.

Measuring child awareness for adult symptomatic HIV using a verbal assessment tool: concordance between adult-child dyads on adult HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed children's awareness for adult HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses using a verbal assessment tool by analysing inter-rater reliability between adult-child dyads. This study also evaluated sociodemographic and household characteristics associated with child awareness of adult symptomatic HIV.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey using a representative community sample of adult-child dyads (N=2477 dyads) was conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Analyses focused on a subsample (n=673 adult-child dyads) who completed verbal assessment interviews for symptomatic HIV. We used an existing validated verbal autopsy approach, originally designed to determine AIDS-related deaths by adult proxy reporters. We adapted this approach for use by child proxy reporters for reporting on HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses among living adults. Analyses assessed whether children could reliably report on adult HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses and adult provisional HIV status.

RESULTS

Adult-child pairs concurred above the 65th percentile for 9 of the 10 HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses with sensitivities ranging from 10% to 100% and specificities ranging from 20% to 100%. Concordant reporting between adult-child dyads for the adult's provisional HIV status was 72% (sensitivity=68%, specificity=73%). Children were more likely to reliably match adult's reports of provisional HIV status when they lived in households with more household members, and households with more robust socioeconomic indicators including access to potable water, food security and television.

CONCLUSIONS

Children demonstrate awareness of HIV-associated symptoms and illnesses experienced by adults in their household. Children in households with greater socioeconomic resources and more household members were more likely to reliably report on the adult's provisional HIV status.

Medical pluralism predicts non-ART use among parents in need of ART: a community survey in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite documented common use of traditional healers and efforts to scale up antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on whether medical pluralism predicts ART use is inconclusive and restricted to clinic settings. This study quantitatively assesses whether medical pluralism predicts ART use among parents in need of ART in South Africa. 2,477 parents or primary caregivers of children were interviewed in HIV-endemic communities of KwaZulu-Natal. Analysis used multiple logistic regression on a subsample of 435 respondents in need of ART, who reported either medical pluralism (24.6 %) or exclusive public healthcare use (75.4 %). Of 435 parents needing ART, 60.7 % reported ART use. Medical pluralism emerged as a persistent negative predictor of ART utilization among those needing it (AOR [95 % CI] = .556 [.344 - .899], p = .017). Use of traditional healthcare services by those who need ART may act as a barrier to treatment access. Effective intersectoral collaboration at community level is urgently needed.

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

Background:

Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each.

Methods:

We describe differences in the two sets of estimates. Where possible, we have drawn on additional published data to which estimates can be compared.

Findings:

UNAIDS estimates that there were 6 million more people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 2013 (35 million) compared with the Murray et al. estimates (29 million). Murray et al. estimate that new infections and AIDS deaths have declined more gradually than does UNAIDS. Just under one third of the difference in PLHIV is in Africa, where Murray et al. have relied more on estimates of adult mortality trends than on data on survival times. Another third of the difference is in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Australasia. Here Murray et al. estimates of new infections are substantially lower than the number of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses reported by countries, whereas published UNAIDS estimate tend to be greater. The remaining differences are in Latin America and Asia where the data upon which the UNAIDS methods currently rely are more sparse, whereas the mortality data leveraged by Murray et al. may be stronger. In this region, however, anomalies appear to exist between the both sets of estimates and other data.

Interpretation:

Both estimates indicate that approximately 30 million PLHIV and that antiretroviral therapy has driven large reductions in mortality. Both estimates are useful but show instructive discrepancies with additional data sources. We find little evidence to suggest that either set of estimates can be considered systematically more accurate. Further work should seek to build estimates on as wide a base of data as possible.

Coming home to die? The association between migration and mortality in rural Tanzania before and after ART scale-up

Background

Prior to the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART), demographic surveillance cohort studies showed higher mortality among migrants than residents in many rural areas.

Objectives

This study quantifies the overall and AIDS-specific mortality between migrants and residents prior to ART, during ART scale-up, and after widespread availability of ART in Rufiji district in Tanzania.

Design

In Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), the follow-up of individuals aged 15–59 years was categorized into three periods: before ART (1998–2003), during ART scale-up (2004–2007), and after widespread availability of ART (2008–2011). Residents were those who never migrated within and beyond HDSS, internal migrants were those who moved within the HDSS, and external migrants were those who moved into the HDSS from outside. Mortality rates were estimated from deaths and person-years of observations calculated in each time period. Hazard ratios were estimated to compare mortality between migrants and residents. AIDS deaths were identified from verbal autopsy, and the odds ratio of dying from AIDS between migrants and residents was estimated using the multivariate logistic regression model.

Results

Internal and external migrants experienced higher overall mortality than residents before the introduction of ART. After widespread availability of ART overall mortality were similar for internal and external migrants. These overall mortality experiences observed were similar for males and females. In the multivariate logistic regression model, adjusting for age, sex, education, and social economic status, internal migrants had similar likelihood of dying from AIDS as residents (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70–1.87) while external migrants were 70% more likely to die from AIDS compared to residents prior to the introduction of ART (AOR=1.70, 95% CI: 1.06–2.73). After widespread availability of ART with the same adjustment factors, the odds of dying from AIDS were similar for internal migrants and residents (AOR=1.56, 95% CI: 0.80–3.04) and external migrants and residents (AOR=1.42, 95% CI: 0.76–2.66).

Conclusions

Availability of ART has reduced the number of HIV-infected migrants who would otherwise return home to die. This has reduced the burden on rural communities who had cared for the return external migrants.

Global causes of maternal death: a WHO systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Data for the causes of maternal deaths are needed to inform policies to improve maternal health. We developed and analysed global, regional, and subregional estimates of the causes of maternal death during 2003-09, with a novel method, updating the previous WHO systematic review.

METHODS

We searched specialised and general bibliographic databases for articles published between between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2012, for research data, with no language restrictions, and the WHO mortality database for vital registration data. On the basis of prespecified inclusion criteria, we analysed causes of maternal death from datasets. We aggregated country level estimates to report estimates of causes of death by Millennium Development Goal regions and worldwide, for main and subcauses of death categories with a Bayesian hierarchical model.

FINDINGS

We identified 23 eligible studies (published 2003-12). We included 417 datasets from 115 countries comprising 60 799 deaths in the analysis. About 73% (1 771 000 of 2 443 000) of all maternal deaths between 2003 and 2009 were due to direct obstetric causes and deaths due to indirect causes accounted for 27·5% (672 000, 95% UI 19·7-37·5) of all deaths. Haemorrhage accounted for 27·1% (661 000, 19·9-36·2), hypertensive disorders 14·0% (343 000, 11·1-17·4), and sepsis 10·7% (261 000, 5·9-18·6) of maternal deaths. The rest of deaths were due to abortion (7·9% [193 000], 4·7-13·2), embolism (3·2% [78 000], 1·8-5·5), and all other direct causes of death (9·6% [235 000], 6·5-14·3). Regional estimates varied substantially.

INTERPRETATION

Between 2003 and 2009, haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and sepsis were responsible for more than half of maternal deaths worldwide. More than a quarter of deaths were attributable to indirect causes. These analyses should inform the prioritisation of health policies, programmes, and funding to reduce maternal deaths at regional and global levels. Further efforts are needed to improve the availability and quality of data related to maternal mortality.

Using HIV-attributable mortality to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult mortality in rural Tanzania

Background

The Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme has provided free antiretroviral therapy (ART) to HIV-positive persons since 2004. ART has been available to participants of the Kisesa open cohort study since 2005, but data to 2007 showed a slow uptake of ART and a modest impact on mortality. Additional data from the 2010 HIV serological survey provide an opportunity to update the estimated impact of ART in this setting.

Methods

The Kisesa Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) has collected HIV serological data and demographic data, including verbal autopsy (VA) interviews since 1994. Serological data to the end of 2010 were used to make two estimates of HIV-attributable mortality, the first among HIV positives using the difference in mortality between HIV positives and HIV negatives, and the second in the population using the difference between the observed mortality rate in the whole population and the mortality rate among the HIV negatives. Four time periods (1994–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2007, and 2008–2010) were used and HIV-attributable mortality estimates were analysed in detail for trends over time. A computer algorithm, InterVA-4, was applied to VA data to estimate the HIV-attributable mortality for the population, and this was compared to the estimates from the serological survey data.

Results

Among HIV-positive adults aged 45–59 years, high mortality rates were observed across all time periods in both males and females. In HIV-positive men, the HIV-attributable mortality was 91.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84.6%–95.3%) in 2000–2004 and 86.3% (95% CI: 71.1%–93.3%) in 2008–2010, while among women, the HIV-attributable mortality was 87.8% (95% CI: 71.1%–94.3%) in 2000–2004 and 85.8% (95% CI: 59.6%–94.4%) in 2008–2010. In the whole population, using the serological data, the HIV-attributable mortality among men aged 30–44 years decreased from 57.2% (95% CI: 46.9%–65.3%) in 2000–2004 to 36.5% (95% CI: 18.8%–50.1%) in 2008–2010, while among women the corresponding decrease was from 57.3% (95% CI: 49.7%–63.6%) to 38.7% (95% CI: 27.4%–48.2%). The HIV-attributable mortality in the population using estimates from the InterVA model was lower than that from HIV sero-status data in the period prior to ART, but slightly higher once ART became available.

Discussion

In the Kisesa HDSS, ART availability corresponds with a decline in adult overall mortality, although not as large as expected. Using InterVA to estimate HIV-attributable mortality showed smaller changes in HIV-related mortality following ART availability than the serological results.

InterVA-4 as a public health tool for measuring HIV/AIDS mortality: a validation study from five African countries

Background

Reliable population-based data on HIV infection and AIDS mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are scanty, even though that is the region where most of the world’s AIDS deaths occur. There is therefore a great need for reliable and valid public health tools for assessing AIDS mortality.

Objective

The aim of this article is to validate the InterVA-4 verbal autopsy (VA) interpretative model within African populations where HIV sero-status is recorded on a prospective basis, and examine the distribution of cause-specific mortality among HIV-positive and HIV-negative people.

Design

Data from six sites of the Alpha Network, including HIV sero-status and VA interviews, were pooled. VA data according to the 2012 WHO format were extracted, and processed using the InterVA-4 model into likely causes of death. The model was blinded to the sero-status data. Cases with known pre-mortem HIV infection status were used to determine the specificity with which InterVA-4 could attribute HIV/AIDS as a cause of death. Cause-specific mortality fractions by HIV infection status were calculated, and a person-time model was built to analyse adjusted cause-specific mortality rate ratios.

Results

The InterVA-4 model identified HIV/AIDS-related deaths with a specificity of 90.1% (95% CI 88.7–91.4%). Overall sensitivity could not be calculated, because HIV-positive people die from a range of causes. In a person-time model including 1,739 deaths in 1,161,688 HIV-negative person-years observed and 2,890 deaths in 75,110 HIV-positive person-years observed, the mortality ratio HIV-positive:negative was 29.0 (95% CI 27.1–31.0), after adjustment for age, sex, and study site. Cause-specific HIV-positive:negative mortality ratios for acute respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS-related deaths, meningitis, tuberculosis, and malnutrition were higher than the all-cause ratio; all causes had HIV-positive:negative mortality ratios significantly higher than unity.

Conclusions

These results were generally consistent with relatively small post-mortem and hospital-based diagnosis studies in the literature. The high specificity in cause of death attribution achieved in relation to HIV status, and large differences between specific causes by HIV status, show that InterVA-4 is an effective and valid tool for assessing HIV-related mortality.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms among adults caring for orphaned children in HIV-endemic South Africa

There is growing evidence that mental health is a significant issue among families affected by AIDS-related parental deaths. The current study examined posttraumatic stress symptoms and identified risk factors among adults caring for AIDS-orphaned and other-orphaned children in an HIV-endemic South African community. A representative community sample of adults caring for children (N = 1,599) was recruited from Umlazi Township. Of the 116 participants who reported that a traumatic event was still bothering them, 19 % reported clinically significant posttraumatic stress symptoms. Of the 116 participants, caregivers of AIDS-orphaned and other-orphaned children were significantly more likely to meet threshold criteria for PTSD (28 %) compared to caregivers of non-orphaned children (10 %). Household receipt of an old age pension was identified as a possible protective factor for PTSD symptoms among caregivers of orphaned children. Services are needed to address PTSD symptoms among caregivers of orphaned children.

Adult mortality and probable cause of death in rural northern Malawi in the era of HIV treatment

Objectives

Developing countries are undergoing demographic transition with a shift from high mortality caused by communicable diseases (CD) to lower mortality rates caused by non-communicable diseases (NCD). HIV/AIDS has disrupted this trend in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in recent years, HIV-associated mortality has been reduced with the introduction of widely available antiretroviral therapy (ART). Side effects of ART may lead to increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, raising the prospects of an accelerated transition towards NCD as the primary cause of death. We report population-based data to investigate changes in cause of death owing to NCD during the first 4 years after introduction of HIV treatment.

Methods

We analysed data from a demographic surveillance system in Karonga district, Malawi, from September 2004 to August 2009. ART was introduced in mid-2005. Clinician review of verbal autopsies conducted 2–6 weeks after a death was used to establish a single principal cause of death.

Results

Over the entire period, there were 905 deaths, AIDS death rate fell from 505 to 160/100 000 person-years, and there was no evidence of an increase in NCD rates. The proportion of total deaths attributable to AIDS fell from 42% to 17% and from NCD increased from 37% to 49%.

Discussion

Our findings show that 4 years after the introduction of ART into HIV care in Karonga district, all-cause mortality has fallen dramatically, with no evidence of an increase in deaths owing to NCD.

A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation

We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the prevalence and its derivatives. Estimates can in principle be obtained for any chosen age and time, and no particular assumptions are made about the epidemiological or demographic context. This is in contrast with earlier methods for estimating incidence from prevalence data, which work with aggregated data, and the aggregated effect of demographic and epidemiological rates over the time interval between prevalence surveys. Numerical simulation of HIV epidemics, under the presumption of known excess mortality due to infection, shows improved control of bias and variance, compared to previous methods. Our analysis motivates for a) effort to be applied to obtain accurate estimates of excess mortality rates as a function of age and time among HIV infected individuals and b) use of individual level rather than aggregated data in order to estimate HIV incidence rates at times between two prevalence surveys.

Liver enzyme abnormalities and associated risk factors in HIV patients on efavirenz-based HAART with or without tuberculosis co-infection in Tanzania

Objectives

To investigate the timing, incidence, clinical presentation, pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenetic predictors for antiretroviral and anti-tuberculosis drug induced liver injury (DILI) in HIV patients with or without TB co-infection.

Methods and Findings

A total of 473 treatment naïve HIV patients (253 HIV only and 220 with HIV-TB co-infection) were enrolled prospectively. Plasma efavirenz concentration and CYP2B6*6, CYP3A5*3, *6 and *7, ABCB1 3435C/T and SLCO1B1 genotypes were determined. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and up to 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy. DILI case definition was according to Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS). Incidence of DILI and identification of predictors was evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards Model. The overall incidence of DILI was 7.8% (8.3 per 1000 person-week), being non-significantly higher among patients receiving concomitant anti-TB and HAART (10.0%, 10.7per 1000 person-week) than those receiving HAART alone (5.9%, 6.3 per 1000 person-week). Frequency of CYP2B6*6 allele (p = 0.03) and CYP2B6*6/*6 genotype (p = 0.06) was significantly higher in patients with DILI than those without. Multivariate cox regression model indicated that CYP2B6*6/*6 genotype and anti-HCV IgG antibody positive as significant predictors of DILI. Median time to DILI was 2 weeks after HAART initiation and no DILI onset was observed after 12 weeks. No severe DILI was seen and the gain in CD4 was similar in patients with or without DILI.

Conclusions

Antiretroviral and anti-tuberculosis DILI does occur in our setting, presenting early following HAART initiation. DILI seen is mild, transient and may not require treatment interruption. There is good tolerance to HAART and anti-TB with similar immunological outcomes. Genetic make-up mainly CYP2B6 genotype influences the development of efavirenz based HAART liver injury in Tanzanians.

Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa

Background

Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation.

Methods

Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time.

Results

Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably.

Conclusions

VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.

Population Health Metrics Research Consortium gold standard verbal autopsy validation study: design, implementation, and development of analysis datasets

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy methods are critically important for evaluating the leading causes of death in populations without adequate vital registration systems. With a myriad of analytical and data collection approaches, it is essential to create a high quality validation dataset from different populations to evaluate comparative method performance and make recommendations for future verbal autopsy implementation. This study was undertaken to compile a set of strictly defined gold standard deaths for which verbal autopsies were collected to validate the accuracy of different methods of verbal autopsy cause of death assignment.

METHODS

Data collection was implemented in six sites in four countries: Andhra Pradesh, India; Bohol, Philippines; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Mexico City, Mexico; Pemba Island, Tanzania; and Uttar Pradesh, India. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed stringent diagnostic criteria including laboratory, pathology, and medical imaging findings to identify gold standard deaths in health facilities as well as an enhanced verbal autopsy instrument based on World Health Organization (WHO) standards. A cause list was constructed based on the WHO Global Burden of Disease estimates of the leading causes of death, potential to identify unique signs and symptoms, and the likely existence of sufficient medical technology to ascertain gold standard cases. Blinded verbal autopsies were collected on all gold standard deaths.

RESULTS

Over 12,000 verbal autopsies on deaths with gold standard diagnoses were collected (7,836 adults, 2,075 children, 1,629 neonates, and 1,002 stillbirths). Difficulties in finding sufficient cases to meet gold standard criteria as well as problems with misclassification for certain causes meant that the target list of causes for analysis was reduced to 34 for adults, 21 for children, and 10 for neonates, excluding stillbirths. To ensure strict independence for the validation of methods and assessment of comparative performance, 500 test-train datasets were created from the universe of cases, covering a range of cause-specific compositions.

CONCLUSIONS

This unique, robust validation dataset will allow scholars to evaluate the performance of different verbal autopsy analytic methods as well as instrument design. This dataset can be used to inform the implementation of verbal autopsies to more reliably ascertain cause of death in national health information systems.

Using verbal autopsy to assess the prevalence of HIV infection among deaths in the ART period in rural Uganda: a prospective cohort study, 2006-2008

Background

Verbal autopsy is important for detecting causes of death including HIV in areas with inadequate vital registration systems. Before antiretroviral therapy (ART) introduction, a verbal autopsy study in rural Uganda found that half of adult deaths assessed were in HIV-positive individuals. We used verbal autopsy to compare the proportion of HIV-positive adult deaths in the periods before and after ART introduction.

Methods

Between 2006 and 2008, all adult (≥ 13 years) deaths in a prospective population-based cohort study were identified by monthly death registration, and HIV serostatus was determined through annual serosurveys. A clinical officer interviewed a relative of the deceased using a verbal autopsy questionnaire. Two clinicians independently reviewed the questionnaires and classified the deaths as HIV-positive or not. A third clinician was the tie-breaker in case of nonagreement. The performance of the verbal autopsy tool was assessed using HIV serostatus as the gold standard of comparison. We compared the proportions of HIV-positive deaths as assessed by verbal autopsy in the early 1990s and the 2006-2008 periods.

Results

Of 333 deaths among 12,641 adults of known HIV serostatus, 264 (79.3%) were assessed by verbal autopsy, of whom 59 (22.3%) were HIV-seropositive and 68 (25.8%) were classified as HIV-positive by verbal autopsy. Verbal autopsy had a specificity of 90.2% and positive predictive value of 70.6% for identifying deaths among HIV-infected individuals, with substantial interobserver agreement (80.3%; kappa statistic = 0.69). The HIV-attributable mortality fraction estimated by verbal autopsy decreased from 47.0% (pre-ART period) to 25.8% (ART period), p < 0.001.

Conclusions

In resource-limited settings, verbal autopsy can provide a good estimate of the prevalence of HIV infection among adult deaths. In this rural population, the proportion of deaths identified by verbal autopsy as HIV-positive declined between the early 1990s and the 2006-2008 period. Verbal autopsy findings can inform policy on HIV health care needs.

Robust metrics for assessing the performance of different verbal autopsy cause assignment methods in validation studies

Background

Verbal autopsy (VA) is an important method for obtaining cause of death information in settings without vital registration and medical certification of causes of death. An array of methods, including physician review and computer-automated methods, have been proposed and used. Choosing the best method for VA requires the appropriate metrics for assessing performance. Currently used metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) errors do not provide a robust basis for comparison.

Methods

We use simple simulations of populations with three causes of death to demonstrate that most metrics used in VA validation studies are extremely sensitive to the CSMF composition of the test dataset. Simulations also demonstrate that an inferior method can appear to have better performance than an alternative due strictly to the CSMF composition of the test set.

Results

VA methods need to be evaluated across a set of test datasets with widely varying CSMF compositions. We propose two metrics for assessing the performance of a proposed VA method. For assessing how well a method does at individual cause of death assignment, we recommend the average chance-corrected concordance across causes. This metric is insensitive to the CSMF composition of the test sets and corrects for the degree to which a method will get the cause correct due strictly to chance. For the evaluation of CSMF estimation, we propose CSMF accuracy. CSMF accuracy is defined as one minus the sum of all absolute CSMF errors across causes divided by the maximum total error. It is scaled from zero to one and can generalize a method's CSMF estimation capability regardless of the number of causes. Performance of a VA method for CSMF estimation by cause can be assessed by examining the relationship across test datasets between the estimated CSMF and the true CSMF.

Conclusions

With an increasing range of VA methods available, it will be critical to objectively assess their performance in assigning cause of death. Chance-corrected concordance and CSMF accuracy assessed across a large number of test datasets with widely varying CSMF composition provide a robust strategy for this assessment.

Autopsy acceptance rate and reasons for decline in Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda

OBJECTIVE

To determine the autopsy acceptance rate and reasons for decline at Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda.

METHODS

The next of kin of patients who died in a combined infectious diseases and gastro-enterology ward of Mulago Hospital were approached to answer a questionnaire concerning characteristics of their deceased relative. During the interview their consent was asked to perform a complete autopsy. If autopsy was declined, the next of kin were asked to provide their reason for the decline.

RESULTS

Permission to perform an autopsy was requested in 158 (54%) of the 290 deaths that occurred during the study period. In 60 (38%) cases autopsy was accepted. Fifty-nine autopsies were performed. For 82% of refusals a reason was listed; mainly 'not wanting to delay the burial' (58%), 'no use to know the cause of death' (16%) and 'being satisfied with the clinical cause of death' (10%).

CONCLUSION

The autopsy rate achieved under study conditions was 38% compared to rates of 5% in Mulago Hospital over the past decade. Timely request and rapid performance of autopsies appear to be important determinants of autopsy acceptance. A motivated team of pathologists and clinicians is required to increase autopsy acceptance.