Individualised and personalised QALYs in exceptional treatment decisions

Life-Gained-Based Versus Risk-Based Selection of Smokers for Lung Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

Although risk-based selection of ever-smokers for screening could prevent more lung cancer deaths than screening according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines, it preferentially selects older ever-smokers with shorter life expectancies due to comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE

To compare selection of ever-smokers for screening based on gains in life expectancy versus lung cancer risk.

DESIGN

Cohort analyses and model-based projections.

SETTING

U.S. population of ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years.

PARTICIPANTS

130 964 National Health Interview Survey participants, representing about 60 million U.S. ever-smokers during 1997 to 2015.

INTERVENTION

Annual computed tomography (CT) screening for 3 years versus no screening.

MEASUREMENTS

Estimated number of lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained after development of a mortality model.

RESULTS

Using the calibrated and validated mortality model in U.S. ever-smokers aged 40 to 84 years and selecting 8.3 million ever-smokers to match the number selected by the USPSTF criteria in 2013 to 2015, the analysis estimated that life-gained-based selection would increase the total life expectancy from CT screening (633 400 vs. 607 800 years) but prevent fewer lung cancer deaths (52 600 vs. 55 000) compared with risk-based selection. The 1.56 million persons selected by the life-gained-based strategy but not the risk-based strategy were younger (mean age, 59 vs. 75 years) and had fewer comorbidities (mean, 0.75 vs. 3.7).

LIMITATION

Estimates are model-based and assume implementation of lung cancer screening with short-term effectiveness similar to that from trials.

CONCLUSION

Life-gained-based selection could maximize the benefits of lung cancer screening in the U.S. population by including ever-smokers who have both high lung cancer risk and long life expectancy.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.

Precision QALYs, Precisely Unjust

Warwick Heale has recently defended the notion of individualized and personalized Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) in connection with health care resource allocation decisions. Ordinarily, QALYs are used to make allocation decisions at the population level. If a health care intervention costs £100,000 and generally yields only two years of survival, the cost per QALY gained will be £50,000, far in excess of the £30,000 limit per QALY judged an acceptable use of resources within the National Health Service in the United Kingdom. However, if we know with medical certainty that a patient will gain four extra years of life from that intervention, the cost per QALY will be £25,000. Heale argues fairness and social utility require such a patient to receive that treatment, even though all others in the cohort of that patient might be denied that treatment (and lose two years of potential life). Likewise, Heale argues that personal commitments of an individual (religious or otherwise), that determine how they value a life-year with some medical intervention, ought to be used to determine the value of a QALY for them. I argue that if Heale's proposals were put into practice, the result would often be greater injustice. In brief, requirements for the just allocation of health care resources are more complex than pure cost-effectiveness analysis would allow.

Putting our best foot forward: Clinical, treatment-based and ethical considerations of nusinersen therapy in Canada for spinal muscular atrophy

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is the most common genetic cause of infant mortality. SMA is a spectral disorder and is categorised based on symptom onset and severity. The median life expectancy for infants with SMA presenting before 6 months of age is less than 2 years without respiratory support. To date, there is no cure for SMA. In June 2017, nusinersen was approved in Canada as the first disease-modifying drug for SMA because of its demonstrated benefits on motor function and survival in clinical trials. However, with a price tag of almost 1 million dollars for the first year of therapy, careful clinical, treatment-based and ethical consideration of the principles of (i) best interests; (ii) universality; (iii) portability; (iv) public administration; (v) accessibility; and (vi) comprehensiveness are important guideposts to ensure transparent and equitable allocation of health-care resources for nusinersen and all other future orphan drugs.

Costs and expected gain in lifetime health from intensive care versus general ward care of 30,712 individual patients: a distribution-weighted cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinicians, hospital managers, policy makers, and researchers are concerned about high costs, increased demand, and variation in priorities in the intensive care unit (ICU). The objectives of this modelling study are to describe the extra costs and expected health gains associated with admission to the ICU versus the general ward for 30,712 patients and the variation in cost-effectiveness estimates among subgroups and individuals, and to perform a distribution-weighted economic evaluation incorporating extra weighting to patients with high severity of disease.

METHODS

We used a decision-analytic model that estimates the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (ICER) from ICU admission compared with general ward care using Norwegian registry data from 2008 to 2010. We assigned increasing weights to health gains for those with higher severity of disease, defined as less expected lifetime health if not admitted. The study has inherent uncertainty of findings because a randomized clinical trial comparing patients admitted or rejected to the ICU has never been performed. Uncertainty is explored in probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The mean cost-effectiveness of ICU admission versus ward care was €11,600/QALY, with 1.6 QALYs gained and an incremental cost of €18,700 per patient. The probability (p) of cost-effectiveness was 95% at a threshold of €22,000/QALY. The mean ICER for medical admissions was €10,700/QALY (p = 97%), €12,300/QALY (p = 93%) for admissions after acute surgery, and €14,700/QALY (p = 84%) after planned surgery. For individualized ICERs, there was a 50% probability that ICU admission was cost-effective for 85% of the patients at a threshold of €64,000/QALY, leaving 15% of the admissions not cost-effective. In the distributional evaluation, 8% of all patients had distribution-weighted ICERs (higher weights to gains for more severe conditions) above €64,000/QALY. High-severity admissions gained the most, and were more cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

On average, ICU admission versus general ward care was cost-effective at a threshold of €22,000/QALY (p = 95%). According to the individualized cost-effectiveness information, one in six ICU admissions was not cost-effective at a threshold of €64,000/QALY. Almost half of these admissions that were not cost-effective can be regarded as acceptable when weighted by severity of disease in terms of expected lifetime health. Overall, existing ICU services represent reasonable resource use, but considerable uncertainty becomes evident when disaggregating into individualized results.