Simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain

Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004-2018)

Objective

To predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.

Methods

The data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.

Results

The AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20–35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.

Conclusions

The results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11050-x.

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970-2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015-2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age-period-cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970-2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970-1974 to 5844 cases in 2010-2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020-2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020-2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020-2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis on the Time Trend of Hepatitis B Incidence in Four Prefectures of Southern Xinjiang, China from 2005 to 2017

Objective: The influence of age, period, and cohort on Hepatitis B (HB) incidence in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China is still not clear. This paper aims to analyze the long-term trend of the HB incidence in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China and to estimate the independent impact of age, period and cohort, as well as to predict the development trend of HB incidence in male and female groups, then to identify the targeted population for HB screening by the model fitting and prediction. Method: The data were from the Case List of HB Cases Reported in the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook of China. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the impacts of age, period and cohort on HB incidence, which could be used to predict the HB incidence in specific age groups of men and women. Results: Under the influence of age effect, the incidence of HB in males had two peaks (20–35 years old and 60–80 years old), the influence of age effect on the incidence of HB in females was lower than that of males and the obvious peak was between 20–30 years old; the period effect on the HB incidence in males and females fluctuated greatly and the fluctuation degree of influence on males was bigger than that of women. The HB incidence among males and females in the four regions tended to be affected by cohort effect, which reached a peak after 1990 and then declined sharply and gradually became stabilized. By predicting the HB incidence from 2018 to 2022, we found that there were significant differences in HB incidence among people over 35 years old, under 35 years old and the whole population in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China. Conclusions: Although the incidence of HB in some regions shows a downward trend, there is still an obvious upward trend of incidences in other places. In our paper, results indicate that the burden of HB incidence may be extended in the future, so we hope this can draw the attention of relative departments. These results reveal the differences of incidence between males and females as well, so respective measures of the two groups’ functions are essential.

Upcoming epidemic of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma in Taiwan: A prediction of incidence in the next 30 years

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Globally, asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) keep rising over the coming decades. The epidemic of ARDs will be a burden on public health. We aimed to predict the malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) incidence in the next 30 years for Taiwan based on historical asbestos consumption.

METHODS

We collected annual data on local asbestos consumption during 1939-2015 and sex-specific incidence of pleural cancer as a proxy for MPM during 1979-2013. We applied Poisson log-linear models to predict future MPM numbers under the assumption that latency periods between asbestos exposure and MPM incidence were between 25 and 45 years.

RESULTS

Asbestos consumption reached a peak in the 1980s, with a total of 668 thousand metric tons during 1939-2015. The observed number of MPM incidence increased by 9- and 6-fold in males and females during 1979-2013, with a cumulative number of 907. Given a latency period of 31 years, MPM incidences were expected to peak around 2012-2016 for males and 2016-2020 for females. In 2017-2046, the predicted total number of new MPM might reach 659 cases (95% confidence interval = 579-749); and the male to female ratios ranged from 1.8 to 2.8.

CONCLUSION

The MPM epidemic in Taiwan will likely peak in 2012-2020 as a result of local asbestos consumption. Approximately 659 new MPM cases in the next 30 years warrant an urgent need to implement a total asbestos ban and put more resources on a comprehensive surveillance, diagnosis, and follow-up health care system for ARDs.