Exercise peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) accurately reflects arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2) and predicts mortality in systemic sclerosis

[Wearables in rheumatology]

As a result of digitalization in medicine wearable computing devices (wearables) are becoming increasingly more important. Wearables are small portable electronic devices with which the user can record data relevant to health, such as number of steps, activity profile, electrocardiogram (ECG), heart and breathing frequency or oxygen saturation. Initial studies on the use of wearables in patients with rheumatological diseases show the opening up of new possibilities for prevention, disease monitoring and treatment. This study provides the current data situation and the implementation of wearables in the discipline of rheumatology. Additionally, future potential fields of application as well as challenges and limits of the implementation of wearables are illustrated.

Validity and reliability of measurement of peripheral oxygen saturation during the 6-Minute Walk Test in patients with systemic sclerosis

Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) using the fingers may have important limitations due to Raynaud's phenomenon and sclerodactyly in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Sensors located at more central body positions may be more accurate as these as less prone to Raynaud attacks. To determine the validity and reliability of the SpO2 measured at the finger, forehead, and earlobe during the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT). Eighty two patients with SSc had an arterial line placed while performing the 6MWT. Peripheral oxygen saturation was simultaneously measured by finger, forehead, and earlobe sensors and compared to the arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2) measured before and after the 6MWT. 40 patients repeated the 6MWT one week later to determine re-test reliability. We used Bland-Altman plots to display the agreement between SpO2 and SaO2. The intraclass correlation coefficient for repeated measurement of minimum SpO2 was calculated. The mean difference between SpO2 and SaO2 after the 6MWT was - 3% (SD: ± 5), 0% (SD: ± 2), and 1% (SD: ± 2) for the finger, forehead, and earlobe, respectively. The minimum SpO2 measured at the finger demonstrated the poorest re-test reliability: The ICC (95% CI) showed good agreement using the ear and forehead probe (ICCear = 0.89 [95% CI 0.80; 0.94]; ICCforehead = 0.77 [95% CI 0.60; 0.87]), while a modest reliability was found using the finger probe (ICCfinger = 0.65 95% CI [0.43; 0.80]). SpO2 should be measured using either the earlobe or forehead during the 6MWT in patients with SSc. Clinical Trials.Gov (NCT04650659).

Development of a clinical prediction tool for extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit

Introduction/objective

Extubation failure in pediatric patients with congenital or acquired heart diseases increases morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a clinical risk score for predicting extubation failure to guide proper clinical decision-making and management.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study. This clinical prediction score was developed using data from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from July 2016 to May 2022. Extubation failure was defined as the requirement for re-intubation within 48 h after extubation. Multivariable logistic regression was used for modeling. The score was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 352 extubation events from 270 patients were documented. Among these, 40 events (11.36%) were extubation failure. Factors associated with extubation failure included history of pneumonia (OR: 4.14, 95% CI: 1.83-9.37, p = 0.001), history of re-intubation (OR: 5.99, 95% CI: 2.12-16.98, p = 0.001), and high saturation in physiologic cyanosis (OR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.87-18.84, p = 0.003). These three factors were utilized to develop the risk score. The score showed acceptable discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86), and good calibration.

Conclusion

The derived Pediatric CMU Extubation Failure Prediction Score (Ped-CMU ExFPS) could satisfactorily predict extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients. Employing this score could promote proper personalized care. We suggest conducting further external validation studies before considering implementation in practice.

Heterogeneity of determining disease severity, clinical course and outcomes in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease: a systematic literature review

Objective The course of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is highly variable and different from continuously progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Most proposed definitions of progressive pulmonary fibrosis or SSc-ILD severity are based on the research data from patients with IPF and are not validated for patients with SSc-ILD. Our study aimed to gather the current evidence for severity, progression and outcomes of SSc-ILD.Methods A systematic literature review to search for definitions of severity, progression and outcomes recorded for SSc-ILD was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to 1 August 2023.Results A total of 9054 papers were reviewed and 342 were finally included. The most frequent tools used for the definition of SSc-ILD progression and severity were combined changes of carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) and forced vital capacity (FVC), isolated FVC or DLCO changes, high-resolution CT (HRCT) extension and composite algorithms including pulmonary function test, clinical signs and HRCT data. Mortality was the most frequently reported long-term event, both from all causes or ILD related.Conclusions The studies presenting definitions of SSc-ILD 'progression', 'severity' and 'outcome' show a large heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for developing a standardised, consensus definition of severe SSc-ILD, to link a disease specific definition of progression as a surrogate outcome for clinical trials and clinical practice.PROSPERO registration number CRD42022379254.Cite Now.

Non-Contact Measurement of Blood Oxygen Saturation Using Facial Video Without Reference Values

The continuous measurement of percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2) enables diseases that cause hypoxemia to be detected early and patients' conditions to be monitored. Currently, SpO2 is mainly measured using a pulse oximeter, which, owing to its simplicity, can be used in clinical settings and at home. However, the pulse oximeter requires a sensor to be in contact with the skin; therefore, prolonged use of the pulse oximeter for neonates or patients with sensitive skin may cause local inflammation or stress due to restricted movement. In addition, owing to COVID-19, there has been a growing demand for the contactless measurement of SpO2. Several studies on measuring SpO2 without contact used skin video images have been conducted. However, in these studies, the SpO2 values were estimated using a linear regression model or a look-up table that required reference values obtained using a contact-type pulse oximeter. In this study, we propose a new technique for the contactless measurement of SpO2 that does not require reference values. Specifically, we used certain approaches that reduced the influence of non-pulsating components and utilized different light wavelengths of video images that penetrated subcutaneously to different depths. We experimentally investigated the accuracy of SpO2 measurements using the proposed methods. The results indicate that the proposed methods were more accurate than the conventional method.

Oxygenated hemoglobin as prognostic marker among patients with systemic sclerosis screened for pulmonary hypertension

Oxygenated hemoglobin (OxyHem) in arterial blood may reflect disease severity in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive value of OxyHem in SSc patients screened for pulmonary hypertension (PH). OxyHem (g/dl) was measured by multiplying the concentration of hemoglobin with fractional oxygen saturation in arterialized capillary blood. Prognostic power was compared with known prognostic parameters in SSc using uni- and multivariable analysis. A total of 280 SSc patients were screened, 267 were included in the analysis. No signs of pulmonary vascular disease were found in 126 patients, while 141 patients presented with mean pulmonary arterial pressure ≥ 21 mmHg. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) was identified in 70 patients. Low OxyHem ≤ 12.5 g/dl at baseline was significantly associated with worse survival (P = 0.046). In the multivariable analysis presence of ILD, age ≥ 60 years and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) ≤ 65% were negatively associated with survival. The combination of low DLCO and low OxyHem at baseline could predict PH at baseline (sensitivity 76.1%). This study detected for the first time OxyHem ≤ 12.5 g/dl as a prognostic predictor in SSc patients. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Responses to exercise in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary complications in systemic sclerosis (SSc) significantly increase morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to determine the factors limiting exercise capacity in SSc patients with and without interstitial lung disease (ILD), and to identify and quantify abnormalities during exercise that might assist in clinical assessment of this complication.

METHODS

Fifteen patients with SSc and ILD (SSc-ILD) were compared with 10 patients with SSc without ILD and 9 age- and sex-matched normal volunteers. Subjects performed symptom-limited incremental treadmill exercise with online measurement of respiratory gas exchange, arterial blood gas sampling and measurement of neurohormones in venous blood.

RESULTS

Patients with SSc-ILD had lower exercise capacity than SSc patients without ILD or normal subjects (peak oxygen consumption (PV̇O₂ ) (17.1 [4.2] vs. 22.0 [4.7] and 23.0 [5.4] ml kg^-1  min^-1 , respectively, mean [SD], p < 0.01 ANOVA), but PV̇O₂ did not correlate with static pulmonary function measurements. Ventilatory equivalent for CO₂ (V̇E/V̇CO₂ ; nadir) was higher in SSc-ILD patients than the other two groups (36.6 [8.0] vs. 29.9 [4.4] and 30.0 [2.5], p < 0.005) as were peak exercise dead-space tidal volume ratio (0.44 [0.06] vs. 0.26 [0.09] and 0.26 [0.05], p < 0.001) and peak exercise alveolar-arterial difference (28.9 [16.9] vs. 18.8 [14.0] and 11.5 [6.9] mmHg, p < 0.05). Atrial natriuretic peptide was elevated in both SSc patient groups.

CONCLUSIONS

SSc-ILD results in lower exercise capacity than SSc without ILD, and abnormalities of gas exchange are seen. The possible use of cardiopulmonary exercise testing to identify disease and quantify impairment in SSc-ILD merits further study.

Predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit: A single-center retrospective study from Thailand

Introduction/objective

Extubation failure increases morbidity and mortality in pediatric cardiac patients, a unique population including those with congenital heart disease or acquired heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients and to determine the association between extubation failure and clinical outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand, from July 2016 to June 2021. Extubation failure was defined as the re-insertion of the endotracheal tube within 48 hours after extubation. Multivariable log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations (GEE) was performed to explore the predictive factors associated with extubation failure.

Results

We collected 318 extubation events from 246 patients. Of these, 35 (11%) events were extubation failures. In physiologic cyanosis, the extubation failure group had significantly higher SpO₂ than the extubation success group (P < 0.001). The predictive factors associated with extubation failure included a history of pneumonia before extubation (RR 3.09, 95% CI 1.54-6.23, P = 0.002), stridor after extubation (RR 2.57, 95% CI 1.44-4.56, P = 0.001), history of re-intubation (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.21-4.12, P = 0.009), and palliative surgery (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.02-3.43, P = 0.043).

Conclusion

Extubation failure was identified in 11% of extubation attempts in pediatric cardiac patients. The extubation failure was associated with a longer duration of PCICU stay but not with mortality. Patients with a history of pneumonia before extubation, history of re-intubation, post-operative palliative surgery, and post-extubation stridor should receive careful consideration before extubation and close monitoring afterward. Additionally, patients with physiologic cyanosis may require balanced circulation via regulated SpO₂.

Association between oxygen delivery and digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Tissue hypoxia due to microvasculopathy is the main cause of digital ulcers (DUs) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Reduced oxygen delivery (DO2) to the tissues may also contribute to the development of DU. This study was conducted to investigate the association between DO2 and DUs in patients with SSc.

METHODS

In all, 111 patients and 30 healthy controls were enrolled. DO2 was calculated by using the formula; DO2 = Cardiac output × arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) × serum haemoglobin level × 1.39 × 10. Both right index finger SpO2 measurements (index-SpO2) and highest value of SpO2 (maximum SpO2) obtained among the fingers of the subjects were used for the calculations and DO2 results were adjusted both for weight and body surface area (BSA).

RESULTS

Mean DO2 was lower in SSc patients as compared to controls in all 4 different calculations but the difference was only statistically significant when using index-SpO2 and adjusting for BSA (498 mL/min/m² vs 549 mL/min/m², p = 0.03). There was a strong positive correlation between cardiac output and DO2 calculated by using the index-SpO2 (r = 0.903; p < 0.001). Of the SSc patients, 46 (41.4 %) had DUs within the last 12 months. Patients with DUs had higher mean mRSS, lover mean FVC and more frequently diffuse disease, interstitial lung disease, anti-SCL70 antibody positivity (p < 0.05 for all). No difference was observed in DO2 among DU positive or DU negative groups by any calculation (p > 0.05 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

DO2 in SSc patients seems to be lower than healthy controls. However, DO2 is similar between the patients with and without DUs. Our results suggest that the contribution of DO2 is negligible to the development of DU and support the major role of microvasculopathy in SSc patients with DUs.

Leukocyte glucose index as a novel biomarker for COVID-19 severity

The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly progresses with unfavorable outcomes due to the host immune response and metabolism alteration. Hence, we hypothesized that leukocyte glucose index (LGI) is a biomarker for severe COVID-19. This study involved 109 patients and the usefulness of LGI was evaluated and compared with other risk factors to predict COVID 19 severity. LGI was identified as an independent risk factor (odds ratio [OR] = 1.727, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.026-3.048, P = 0.041), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.749 (95% CI: 0.642-0.857, P < 0.0001). Interestingly, LGI was a potential risk factor (OR = 2.694, 95% CI: 1.575-5.283, Pcorrected < 0.05) for severe COVID-19 in female but not in male patients. In addition, LGI proved to be a strong predictor of the severity in patients with diabetes (AUC = 0.915 (95% CI: 0.830-1), sensitivity = 0.833, and specificity = 0.931). The AUC of LGI, together with the respiratory rate (LGI + RR), showed a considerable improvement (AUC = 0.894, 95% CI: 0.835-0.954) compared to the other biochemical and respiratory parameters analyzed. Together, these findings indicate that LGI could potentially be used as a biomarker of severity in COVID-19 patients.

The accuracy of pulse oximetry in measuring oxygen saturation by levels of skin pigmentation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been concerns regarding potential bias in pulse oximetry measurements for people with high levels of skin pigmentation. We systematically reviewed the effects of skin pigmentation on the accuracy of oxygen saturation measurement by pulse oximetry (SpO2) compared with the gold standard SaO2 measured by CO-oximetry.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (up to December 2021) for studies with SpO2-SaO2 comparisons and measuring the impact of skin pigmentation or ethnicity on pulse oximetry accuracy. We performed meta-analyses for mean bias (the primary outcome in this review) and its standard deviations (SDs) across studies included for each subgroup of skin pigmentation and ethnicity and used these pooled mean biases and SDs to calculate accuracy root-mean-square (Arms) and 95% limits of agreement. The review was registered with the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/gm7ty ).

RESULTS

We included 32 studies (6505 participants): 15 measured skin pigmentation and 22 referred to ethnicity. Compared with standard SaO2 measurement, pulse oximetry probably overestimates oxygen saturation in people with the high level of skin pigmentation (pooled mean bias 1.11%; 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 1.93%) and people described as Black/African American (1.52%; 0.95 to 2.09%) (moderate- and low-certainty evidence). The bias of pulse oximetry measurements for people with other levels of skin pigmentation or those from other ethnic groups is either more uncertain or suggests no overestimation. Whilst the extent of mean bias is small or negligible for all subgroups evaluated, the associated imprecision is unacceptably large (pooled SDs > 1%). When the extent of measurement bias and precision is considered jointly, pulse oximetry measurements for all the subgroups appear acceptably accurate (with Arms < 4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulse oximetry may overestimate oxygen saturation in people with high levels of skin pigmentation and people whose ethnicity is reported as Black/African American, compared with SaO2. The extent of overestimation may be small in hospital settings but unknown in community settings. REVIEW PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/gm7ty.

The prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in interstitial lung disease: a systematic review

The heterogeneity of interstitial lung disease (ILD) results in prognostic uncertainty concerning end-of-life discussions and optimal timing for transplantation. Effective prognostic markers and prediction models are needed. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physiological changes in the respiratory, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal systems in a controlled laboratory environment. It has shown promise as a prognostic factor for other chronic respiratory conditions. We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of CPET in predicting outcomes in longitudinal studies of ILD.

MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were used to identify studies reporting the prognostic value of CPET in predicting outcomes in longitudinal studies of ILD. Study quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Study risk of bias tool.

Thirteen studies were included that reported the prognostic value of CPET in ILD. All studies reported at least one CPET parameter predicting clinical outcomes in ILD, with survival being the principal outcome assessed. Maximum oxygen consumption, reduced ventilatory efficiency and exercise-induced hypoxaemia were all reported to have prognostic value in ILD. Issues with study design (primarily due to inherent problems of retrospective studies, patient selection and presentation of numerous CPET parameters), insufficient adjustment for important confounders and inadequate statistical analyses limit the strength of the conclusions that can be drawn at this stage.

There is insufficient evidence to confirm the value of CPET in facilitating “real-world” clinical decisions in ILD. Additional prospective studies are required to validate the putative prognostic associations reported in previous studies in carefully phenotyped patient populations.

There is presently insufficient evidence to confirm the value of CPET in facilitating “real-world” clinical decisions in ILD. Additional prospective studies are required to validate the putative prognostic associations reported in previous studies.https://bit.ly/3dfp5kq

State-of-the-art technologies provide new insights linking skin and blood vessel abnormalities in SSc-related disorders

OBJECTIVE

A key unanswered question in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is how microvascular abnormality and fibrosis inter-relate. Our aim was to use state-of-the-art non-invasive imaging methods to gain new insights into pathophysiology, comparing patients with different subtypes of SSc, including early dcSSc, not only to healthy controls but also to patients with causes of Raynaud's phenomenon not progressing to fibrosis.

METHODS

Laser Doppler imaging, nailfold capillaroscopy, spectroscopy, and ultrasound measured (respectively) perfusion, microvascular structure, oxygenation/oxidative stress, and skin thickening in the hands of 265 subjects: 31 patients with primary Raynaud's phenomenon (PRP), 35 with undifferentiated connective tissue disease (UCTD), 93 with limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc), 46 with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc, including 27 'early') and 60 healthy controls.

RESULTS

Mean perfusion was reduced in SSc groups compared to controls (lcSSc 172 perfusion units [standard deviation 157], late-dcSSc 90 [145], early-dcSSc 68 [137] vs. controls 211 [146]; p = 0.0002) as was finger-oxygenation (lcSSc 12.1 [13.6] arbitrary units [AU], late-dcSSc 12.2 [8.4], early-dcSSc 11.1 [11.3] vs controls 14.9 [10.5]; p = 0.0049). Oxidative stress was increased at the hand-dorsum in SSc groups (p = 0.0007). Perfusion positively correlated with oxygenation (r = 0.23, p < 0.001), and capillary density negatively with skin thickness (r = -0.26, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that in SSc, particularly early dcSSc, (but not in PRP or UCTD), reduced perfusion (together with structural microvascular abnormality) associates with reduced oxygenation, with oxidative stress and with skin thickening/fibrosis, most likely driving a vicious cycle which ultimately results in irreversible tissue injury. Findings in skin may mirror alterations in internal organs.

Prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in patients with systemic sclerosis

Background

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a severe rheumatic disease of the interstitial tissue, in which heart and lung involvement can lead to disease-specific mortality. Our study tests the hypothesis that in addition to established prognostic factors, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) parameters, particularly peak oxygen uptake (peakVO₂) and ventilation/carbon dioxide (VE/VCO₂)-slope, can predict survival in patients with SSc.

Subjects and methods

We retrospectively assessed 210 patients (80.9% female) in 6 centres over 10 years with pulmonary testing and CPET. Survival was analysed with Cox regression analysis (adjusted for age and gender) by age, comorbidity (Charlson-Index), body weight, body-mass index, extensive interstitial lung disease, pulmonary artery pressure (measured by echocardiography and invasively), and haemodynamic, pulmonary and CPET parameters.

Results

Five- and ten-year survival of SSc patients was 93.8 and 86.9%, respectively. There was no difference in survival between patients with diffuse (dcSSc) and limited cutaneous manifestation (lcSSc; p = 0.3). Pulmonary and CPET parameters were significantly impaired. Prognosis was worst for patients with pulmonary hypertension (p = 0.007), 6-min walking distance < 413 m (p = 0.003), peakVO₂ < 15.6 mL∙kg^− 1∙min^− 1, and VE/VCO₂-slope > 35. Age (hazard ratio HR = 1.23; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.14;1.41), VE/VCO₂-slope (HR = 0.9; CI 0.82;0.98), diffusion capacity (Krogh factor, HR = 0.92; CI 0.86;0.98), forced vital capacity (FVC, HR = 0.91; CI 0.86;0.96), and peakVO₂ (HR = 0.87; CI 0.81;0.94) were significantly linked to survival in multivariate analyses (Harrell’s C = 0.95).

Summary

This is the first large study with SSc patients that demonstrates the prognostic value of peakVO₂ < 15.6 mL∙kg^− 1∙min^− 1 (< 64.5% of predicted peakVO₂) and VE/VCO₂-slope > 35.

Exercise-induced hypoxemia predicts heart failure hospitalization and death in patients supported with left ventricular assist devices

Following implantation of continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices, mechanical off-loading results in improved resting hemodynamics; however, peak exercise capacity generally does not increase substantially. This study evaluated patients supported by continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices who were invasively monitored during exercise to define parameters that underpin exercise capacity and outcomes. A review of all patients supported by continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices who underwent supine bicycle ergometry exercise testing with measurement of pulmonary gas exchange during right heart catheterization for evaluation of dyspnea at one institution between 2007 and 2018 was performed (n = 22). The primary outcome of this investigation was death or heart failure hospitalization. Although resting filling pressures were relatively preserved, resting cardiac index (Fick) was low (2.1 ± 0.5 mL/kg/min). An impaired cardiac output reserve was present in 75% of patients. On univariate modeling, patients with supine exercise-induced hypoxemia (O₂ saturation <90%) experienced significantly diminished hospitalization-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio = 11.0, confidence interval = 2.4-57.2, p = 0.003), which persisted despite adjustment for right heart catheterization peak VO₂ and peak cardiac output (adjusted hazard ratio = 25, confidence interval = 3.6-322, p = 0.001). Our findings suggest that supine exercise testing provides additional prognostic utility in the continuous-flow left ventricular assist device population.

Prediction of progression of interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis: the SPAR model

OBJECTIVES

To identify the predictive clinical characteristics and establish a prediction model for the progression of mild interstitial lung disease (ILD) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc).

METHODS

Patients with SSc from two independent prospective cohorts were included in this observational study. All patients fulfilled the 2013 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism criteria, had mild ILD at baseline diagnosed by High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT), available baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up pulmonary function tests and no concomitant pulmonary hypertension or airflow obstruction. ILD progression was defined as a relative decrease in forced vital capacity (FVC)%≥15%, or FVC%≥10% combined with diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide %≥15% at 1-year follow-up. Candidate predictors for multivariate logistic regression were selected by expert opinion based on clinical significance. A prediction model for ILD progression was established in the derivation cohort and validated in the multinational validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 25/98 and 25/117 patients with SSc showed ILD progression in the derivation cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. Lower SpO₂ after 6 min walk test (6MWT) and arthritis ever were identified as independent predictors for ILD progression in both cohorts. The optimal cut-off value of SpO₂ after 6MWT for predicting ILD progression was determined as 94% by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The derived SPAR model combining both predictors (SPO₂ and ARthritis) increased the prediction rate from 25.5% to 91.7% with an area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.83 (0.73 to 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence-based SPAR prediction model developed in our study might be helpful for the risk stratification of patients with mild SSc-ILD in clinical practice and cohort enrichment for future clinical trial design.

Diagnostic criteria, severity classification and guidelines of systemic sclerosis

Several effective drugs have been identified for the treatment of systemic sclerosis (SSc). However, in advanced cases, not only their effectiveness is reduced but they may be also harmful due to their side-effects. Therefore, early diagnosis and early treatment is most important for the treatment of SSc. We established diagnostic criteria for SSc in 2003 and early diagnostic criteria for SSc in 2011, for the purpose of developing evaluation of each organ in SSc. Moreover, in November 2013, the American College of Rheumatology and the European Rheumatology Association jointly developed new diagnostic criteria for increasing their sensitivity and specificity, so we revised our diagnostic criteria and severity classification of SSc. Furthermore, we have revised the clinical guideline based on the newest evidence. In particular, the clinical guideline was established by clinical questions based on evidence-based medicine according to the New Minds Clinical Practice Guideline Creation Manual (version 1.0). We aimed to make the guideline easy to use and reliable based on the newest evidence, and to present guidance as specific as possible for various clinical problems in treatment of SSc.

Is there a learning effect when the 6-minute walk test is repeated in people with suspected pulmonary hypertension?

The aim of the study was to determine if there was a difference in 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) when two 6-minute walk tests (6MWTs) were performed at the initial assessment prior to attendance at the pulmonary hypertension (PH) clinic and at the 6-month follow-up. Two 6MWTs were performed at both visits on a 32-m continuous track in the physiotherapy hospital outpatient setting using standard instructions and encouragement. Two hundred and fourteen participants completed two 6MWTs at the initial assessment and 71 participants at the 6-month follow-up (mean (standard deviation) age: 57 (16) years; body mass index: 27 (6) kg/m²). Using the better 6MWT, the mean distances walked were 429 (136) and 447 (130) m, respectively. There was a significant increase in 6MWD when a second 6MWT was performed at initial assessment (mean difference [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 19 m (14–24), p < 0.001) and at the follow-up (mean difference [95% CI]: 19 m (10–27), p < 0.001) but not in those who walked <300 m at the initial assessment (mean difference [95% CI]: 9 m (−5 to 22), p = 0.208). There were no adverse events during testing. Prior to attendance at the PH Clinic when people are asked to perform the 6MWT for the first time and at the 6-month follow-up, two walk tests should be performed in order to eliminate a learning effect and to ensure accuracy of measurement.

Interstitial lung disease points to consider for clinical trials in systemic sclerosis

Interstitial lung disease causes major morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc-ILD). Large randomized clinical trials in SSc-ILD have provided important information regarding the feasibility, reliability and validity of outcome measures. Forced vital capacity percentage predicted should be considered as a primary outcome measure, with inclusion of appropriate radiological and patient-reported measures. We provide practical recommendations for trial design in SSc-ILD.

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model

BACKGROUND

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course.

METHODS

We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index.

RESULTS

Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD.

Risk factors for severity and manifestations in systemic sclerosis and prediction of disease course

Systemic sclerosis (SSc, or scleroderma) is a rheumatic disease with distinct features that encompass autoimmunity, vascular lesions (vasculopathy) and tissue fibrosis. The disease has a high morbidity and mortality compared with other rheumatic diseases. This review discusses risk factors and markers that predict the disease course and the occurrence of disease manifestations, with an emphasis on major organ involvement. In addition, risk factors will be described that are associated with mortality in SSc patients. The review addresses the impact of recent developments on screening, diagnosis and risk stratification as well as the need for further research where data are lacking.

Outcome Measures for Clinical Trials in Interstitial Lung Diseases

The chronic fibrosing idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs) are a group of heterogeneous pulmonary parenchymal disorders described by radiologic and histological patterns termed usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) and non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). These include idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and those related to connective tissue disease (CTD) and are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Beyond the importance of establishing an appropriate diagnosis, designing optimal clinical trials for IIPs has been fraught with difficulties in consistency of clinical endpoints making power analyses, and the establishment of efficacy and interpretation of results across trials challenging. Preliminary recommendations, developed by rigorous consensus methods, proposed a minimum set of outcome measures, a 'core set', to be incorporated into future clinical trials (Saketkoo et al, THORAX. 2014.). This paper sets out to examine the candidate instruments for each domain (Dyspnea, Cough, Health Related Quality of Life, Imaging, Lung Physiology and Function, Mortality). Candidate measures that were not selected as well as measures that were not available for examination at the time of the consensus process will also be discussed.

Predictors of mortality and progression in scleroderma-associated interstitial lung disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, prognostication of SSc-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) remains challenging. We conducted a systematic review to identify variables that predict mortality and ILD progression in SSc-ILD.

METHODS

Three databases were searched to identify all studies relating to predictors of mortality or ILD progression in SSc-ILD. Studies were eligible if they were published in English and included ≥ 10 adults with SSc-ILD. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data from acceptable studies.

RESULTS

The initial search identified 3,145 unique citations. Twenty-seven studies, including six abstracts, met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1,616 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific variables predicted mortality and progression; however, most predictors were identified in only one study. Most studies did not fully account for potential confounders, and none of the studies included a validation cohort. Older age, lower FVC, and lower diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide predicted mortality in more than one study. Male sex, extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan, presence of honeycombing, elevated KL-6 values, and increased alveolar epithelial permeability were identified as predictors of both mortality and ILD progression on unadjusted analysis. The extent of disease on HRCT scan was the only variable that independently predicted both mortality and ILD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality and ILD progression were predicted by several patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific factors. Additional prospective studies are required to validate these preliminary findings and to identify combinations of variables that accurately predict the prognosis of SSc-ILD.

Effect of capillaroscopic patterns on the pulse oximetry measurements in systemic sclerosis patients

Nailfold capillaroscopy is a simple method for determining microvascular damage in systemic sclerosis (SSc). The pulse oximeter is a noninvasive tool that is used to estimate a patient's arterial blood oxygen saturation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of capillaroscopic patterns on pulse oximetry measurements in SSc patients. The nailfolds from 2nd to 5th fingers in both hands were examined in all subjects by using capillaroscopy. Patients were categorized according to their capillaroscopy findings in 3 groups as having early, active or late patterns. Oxygen saturation (SpO2) measurements were performed from 2nd to 5th fingers in both hands with a finger probe. We studied 53 SSc patients (F/M: 48/5). According to capillaroscopy findings 18 patients were classified as having early pattern (34.0%), 19 active pattern (35.8%), and 15 late pattern (28.3%). Only 1 (1.9%) patient had normal capillaroscopy findings. SpO2 could not be measured in 47 (11.0%) fingers and in 20 (37.7%) SSc patients. There were 20 (37.7%) patients with a ≥4% difference between the minimum and maximum SpO2 measurements among fingers. There were no difference between the groups of SSc patients defined by capillaroscopy findings in terms of mean maximal SpO2 or mean minimal SpO2 measured from fingers (p NS, for all). Assessment of SpO2 values in patients with SSc is challenging. We did not detect any effect of capillaroscopic patterns on mean SpO2 values. On the other hand ≥4% difference between minimum and maximum SpO2 values measured from fingers of a patient may be considered as an indirect sign of microvascular damage. Assessment of the highest measured SpO2 values among the fingers of a patient may be more suitable in practice.

Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease: Lessons from Clinical Trials, Outcome Measures, and Future Study Design

Pulmonary involvement including interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (scleroderma; SSc). This article reviews the current evidence based medicine regarding available therapies for SSc-ILD ; discusses the lessons learned from recent SSc-ILD randomized controlled trials (RCTs); and proposes outcome measures and recommendations for design of future RCTs for SSc-ILD.

Exercise limitation in interstitial lung disease - mechanisms, significance and therapeutic options

Exercise limitation is a cardinal feature of the interstitial lung diseases and is frequently associated with marked dyspnoea on exertion. People with interstitial lung disease exhibit a rapid, shallow breathing pattern during exercise that worsens as disease progresses. Despite this, ventilatory mechanics are not the major limitation to exercise in most patients, with impaired gas exchange and circulatory limitation playing a more important role. Peripheral and respiratory muscle dysfunction may also contribute to impaired exercise tolerance, either due to systemic manifestations of the underlying disease, treatment side-effects or deconditioning. Measures of exercise capacity or desaturation obtained from maximal and submaximal exercise tests are good predictors of survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. However, to date few pharmaceutical treatments have affected exercise outcomes despite improvements in other important clinical markers. Supplemental oxygen acutely improves exercise capacity in interstitial lung disease and is recommended for hypoxic patients, although quality of life or survival benefits have not yet been demonstrated. Exercise training improves walking capacity and dyspnoea in short-term trials and is useful to maximize functional capacity. The role of exercise testing in the routine management of patients with interstitial lung disease is not clearly defined. However, given the poor prognosis in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and the marked variation in clinical course, assessment of exercise capacity may provide useful information for both clinicians and patients when evaluating the risks and benefits of new treatments. The extent of resting or exercise-induced hypoxia in patients with interstitial lung disease may influence the selection of an appropriate exercise test, and oxygen administration should be standardized on repeat testing.