Accuracy of short-term demographic data in projecting long-term fate of populations

Short-term surveys are useful in conservation of species if they can be used to reliably predict the long-term fate of populations. However, statistical evaluations of reliability are rare. We studied how well short-term demographic data (1999-2002) of tartar catchfly (Silene tatarica), a perennial riparian plant, projected the fate and growth of 23 populations of this species up to the year 2010. Surveyed populations occurred along a river with natural flood dynamics and along a regulated river. Riparian plant populations are affected by flooding, which maintains unvegetated shores, while forest succession proceeds in areas with little flooding. Flooding is less severe along the regulated river, and vegetation overgrowth reduces abundance of tartar catchfly on unvegetated shores. We built matrix models to calculate population growth rates and estimated times to population extinction in natural and in regulated rivers, 13 and 10 populations, respectively. Models predicted population survival well (model predictions matched observed survival in 91% of populations) and accurately predicted abundance increases and decreases in 65% of populations. The observed and projected population growth rates differed significantly in all but 3 populations. In most cases, the model overestimated population growth. Model predictions did not improve when data from more years were used (1999-2006). In the regulated river, the poorest model predictions occurred in areas where cover of other plant species changed the fastest. Although vegetation cover increased in most populations, it decreased in 4 populations along the natural river. Our results highlight the need to combine disturbance and succession dynamics in demographic models and the importance of habitat management for species survival along regulated rivers.

Conservation of species in dynamic landscapes: divergent fates of Silene tatarica populations in riparian habitats

In transient environments, where local extinctions occur as a result of destruction or deterioration of the local habitat, the long-term persistence of a species requires successful colonizations at new, suitable sites. This kind of habitat tracking should be associated with the asynchronous dynamics of local populations, and it can be especially important for the conservation of rare plant species in riparian habitats. We determined spatiotemporal variation in the demography of the perennial Silene tatarica (L.) Pers. in 15 populations (1998-2003) located in periodically disturbed riparian habitats. The habitats differed according to their morphology (flat shores, slopes) and the amount of bare ground (open, intermediate, closed) along a successional gradient. We used elasticity and life-table response analyses and stochastic simulations to study the variation in population demography. Finite population growth rate was higher in intermediate habitats than in open and closed habitats. In stochastic simulations population size increased in most cases, but four populations were projected to become extinct within 12-70 years. The viability of local populations depended most on the survival and growth of juvenile individuals and on the fecundity of large fertile individuals. On a regional scale, the persistence of this species will require a viable network of local populations as protection against local extinctions caused by natural disturbances and succession. Accordingly, the long-term persistence of riparian species may depend on habitat changes; thus, their conservation requires maintenance of natural disturbance dynamics. Along regulated rivers, management activities such as the creation of open habitats for new colonization should be implemented. Similarly, these activities can be rather general requirements for the conservation of endangered species dependent on transient habitats along successional gradients.

Local genetic population structure in an endangered plant species, Silene tatarica (Caryophyllaceae)

Genetic substructuring in plant populations may evolve as a consequence of sampling events that occur when the population is founded or regenerated, or if gene dispersal by pollen and seeds is restricted within a population. Silene tatarica is an endangered, perennial plant species growing along periodically disturbed riverbanks in northern Finland. We investigated the mechanism behind the microspatial genetic structure of S. tatarica in four subpopulations using amplified fragment length polymorphism markers. Spatial autocorrelation revealed clear spatial genetic structure in each subpopulation, even though the pattern diminished in older subpopulations. Parentage analysis in an isolated island subpopulation indicated a very low level of selfing and avoidance of breeding between close relatives. The mean estimated pollen dispersal distance (24.10 m; SD = 10.5) was significantly longer and the mean seed dispersal distance (9.07 m; SD = 9.23) was considerably shorter than the mean distance between the individuals (19.20 m; SD = 13.80). The estimated indirect and direct estimates of neighbourhood sizes in this subpopulation were very similar, 32.1 and 37.6, respectively. Our results suggested that the local spatial genetic structure in S. tatarica was attributed merely to the isolation-by-distance process rather than founder effect, and despite free pollen movement across population, restricted seed dispersal maintains local genetic structure in this species.