Prognostic Value of AIMS65 Score in Cirrhotic Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

International Normalized Ratio-to-Albumin Ratio as a Novel Marker of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Severity

Introduction

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a potentially life-threatening gastrointestinal emergency, and effective management depends on early risk stratification. The Glasgow–Blatchford and Rockall scores are commonly used prognostic measures for UGIB, although these scoring systems are relatively difficult to apply in early emergency settings. AIMS65 with five items, albumin, international normalized ratio, mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age (>65 years), showed efficacy in predicting long-term hospitalization and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio-to-albumin ratio (PTAR) in the emergency room for early UGIB risk stratification.

Methods

We retrospectively examined patients who visited a tertiary academic hospital's emergency department (ED) with UGIB as the chief presentation between January 2019 and December 2020. The cutoff values and diagnostic accuracies of the PTAR, Glasgow–Blatchford score, AIMS65 score, pre-endoscopy, and complete Rockall score were analyzed, and the performance of the PTAR was compared with that of other risk stratification methods. In total, 519 patients were enrolled: 163 patients were admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) and 35 died during admission. Multiple logistic regression analyses confirmed the association of the PTAR with ICU admission and mortality. The adjusted odd ratio (aOR) of the PTAR for ICU admission care was 8.376 (2.722–25.774), and the aOR of the PTAR for mortality was 27.846 (8.701–89.116).

Conclusions

The PTAR measured in the ED is an independent factor related to ICU admission and mortality in patients with UGIB. Using ED blood laboratory results, which are reported relatively quickly and are easy to acquire and calculate, the PTAR can be used as a risk stratification marker in the early emergency setting.

Usefulness of the d-dimer to albumin ratio for risk assessment in patients with acute variceal bleeding at the emergency department: retrospective observational study

Background

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a severe complication of portal hypertension that is caused by rupture of the esophageal or gastric varix. Scoring system for risk stratification of AVB is difficult to use because various variables must be entered, and it is difficult to apply early in the emergency department (ED). We compared and analyzed the usefulness of the D-dimer to albumin ratio (DAR) for risk stratification of AVB.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, medical records of patients with AVB Between January 2019 and December 2020 were assessed. The primary endpoint was to evaluate whether DAR was a predictor of clinical outcomes for AVB. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed using cut-off values determined by the Youden Index. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the factors contributing to the development of outcomes.

Results

Overall, 67 patients required intensive care. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring intensive care was 400. A DAR > 400 (adjusted HR: 5.636 [95% CI: 2.216–14.332]) independently predicted the need for ICU admission in these patients. Overall, 13 patients required long-term hospitalization. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring long-term hospitalization was 403. A DAR > 403 (adjusted HR: 9.899 [95% CI: 2.012–48.694]) independently predicted the need for long-term hospitalization. Overall, 95 patients required transfusion. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring transfusion was 121. A DAR > 121 (adjusted HR: 4.680 [95% CI: 1.703–12.862]) independently predicted the need for transfusion. Overall, 11 patients died during study period. The cut-off value of DAR for mortality was 450. A DAR > 450 (adjusted HR: 26.261 [95% CI: 3.054–225.827]) independently predicted mortality.

Conclusions

The DAR can be used for outcome assessment in patients with AVB with various scoring systems, but its explanatory power is not high.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-022-00696-4.

Prediction model of emergency mortality risk in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study

Background

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department.

Methods

A total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score.

Results

Among 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794–0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model.

Conclusions

The nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.

Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal bleeding is one of the deadliest complications of cirrhosis, with a high risk of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality. Some risk scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been developed. However, for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, data regarding the predictive value of these prognostic scores in predicting in-hospital outcomes are limited and controversial.

AIM

To validate and compare the overall performance of selected prognostic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital outcomes in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding.

METHODS

From March 2017 to June 2019, cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding were retrospectively enrolled at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. The clinical Rockall score (CRS), AIMS65 score (AIMS65), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS), Canada-United Kingdom-Australia score (CANUKA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-Na were calculated. The overall performance of these prognostic scoring systems was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 330 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding were enrolled; the rates of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality were 20.3% and 10.6%, respectively. For in-hospital rebleeding, the discriminative ability of the CTP and CRS were clinically acceptable, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.717 (0.648-0.787) and 0.716 (0.638-0.793), respectively. The other tested scoring systems had poor discriminative ability (AUROCs < 0.7). For in-hospital mortality, the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD showed excellent discriminative ability (AUROCs > 0.8). The AUROCs of the mGBS, CANUKA and GBS were relatively small, but clinically acceptable (AUROCs > 0.7). Furthermore, the calibration of all scoring systems was good for either in-hospital rebleeding or death.

CONCLUSION

For cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, in-hospital rebleeding and mortality rates remain high. The CTP and CRS can be used clinically to predict in-hospital rebleeding. The performances of the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD are excellent at predicting in-hospital mortality.

Development of a prognostic nomogram for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a complication with a high mortality rate in critically ill patients presenting with cirrhosis. Today, there exist few accurate scoring models specifically designed for mortality risk assessment in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (CICGIB). Our aim was to develop and evaluate a novel nomogram-based model specific for CICGIB.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Overall, 540 consecutive CICGIB patients were enrolled. On the basis of Cox regression analyses, the nomogram was constructed to estimate the probability of 30-day, 90-day, 270-day, and 1-year survival. An upper gastrointestinal bleeding-chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (UGIB-CLIF-SOFA) score was derived from the nomogram. Performance assessment and internal validation of the model were performed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedures. UGIB-CLIF-SOFA was also compared with other prognostic models, such as CLIF-SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease, using C-indices.

RESULTS

Eight independent factors derived from Cox analysis (including bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, sodium, albumin, mean artery pressure, vasopressin used, and hematocrit decrease>10%) were assembled into the nomogram and the UGIB-CLIF-SOFA score. The calibration plots showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram using bootstrap (0.729; 95% confidence interval: 0.689-0.766) was higher than that of the other models for predicting survival of CICGIB.

CONCLUSION

We have developed and internally validated a novel nomogram and an easy-to-use scoring system that accurately predicts the mortality probability of CICGIB on the basis of eight easy-to-obtain parameters. External validation is now warranted in future clinical studies.

Significance of AIMS65 risk scoring system in evaluating prognosis of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

AIM

To assess the value of AIMS65 risk scoring system for evaluating the risk of rebleeding and mortality with acute variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AVUGIB) and acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB).

METHODS

Clinical data for 339 acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) patients treated from October 2013 to June 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University who met the inclusion criteria and had complete information were included. Each patient's score of AIMS65 was calculated. Patients were followed for 30 d after discharge. Death or the prognosis of disease in 30 d after discharge was considered as the clinical study endpoint. The rates of rebleeding and mortality were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of AIMS65 risk scoring system was calculated to verify its efficiency in evaluating rebleeding and mortality.

RESULTS

With the increase in AIMS65 risk scores, the rates of rebleeding and mortality increased in AUGIB patients. The AUCs of AIMS65 risk scoring system for assessing the rates of rebleeding and mortality in AVUGIB were 0.717 (95%CI: 0.568-0.866, P < 0.05) and 0.857 (95%CI: 0.747-0.967, P < 0.05), respectively. The AUCs of AIMS65 risk scoring system for assessing the rates of rebleeding and mortality in ANVUGIB were 0.768 (95%CI: 0.652-0.884, P < 0.05) and 0.857 (95%CI: 0.733-0.981, P < 0.05), respectively.

CONCLUSION

AIMS65 risk scoring system can be used to predict the risk and assess the prognosis of AUGIB, including both ANVUGIB and AVUGIB.

The AIMS65 Score Is a Useful Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Urgent Endoscopy in Patients with High AIMS65 Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To validate the AIMS65 score for predicting mortality of patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding and to evaluate the effectiveness of urgent (<8 hours) endoscopic procedures in patients with high AIMS65 scores.

METHODS

This was a 5-year single-center, retrospective study. Nonvariceal, upper gastrointestinal bleeding was assessed by using the AIM65 and Rockall scores. Scores for mortality were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Patients with high AIMS65 scores (≥2) were allocated to either the urgent or non-urgent endoscopic procedure group. In-hospital mortality, success of endoscopic procedure, recurrence of bleeding, admission period, and dose of transfusion were compared between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 634 patients were analyzed. The AIMS65 score successfully predicted mortality (AUROC=0.943; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.876 to 0.99) and was superior to the Rockall score (AUROC=0.856; 95% CI, 0.743 to 0.969) in predicting mortality. The group with high AIMS65 score included 200 patients. The urgent endoscopic procedure group had reduced hospitalization periods (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

AIMS65 score may be useful in predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Urgent endoscopic procedures in patients with high scores may be related to reduced hospitalization periods.