Assessing the Prognostic Performance of the Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and Albumin-Bilirubin Scores in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Large Asian Cohort from Gastroenterology Department

Machine Learning for Short-Term Mortality in Acute Decompensation of Liver Cirrhosis: Better than MELD Score

Prediction of short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis could be improved. We aimed to develop and validate two machine learning (ML) models for predicting 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis. We trained two artificial neural network (ANN)-based ML models using a training sample of 165 out of 290 (56.9%) patients, and then tested their predictive performance against Model of End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) and MELD 3.0 scores using a different validation sample of 125 out of 290 (43.1%) patients. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 28-day mortality for the ML model was 0.811 (95%CI: 0.714- 0.907; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.577 (95%CI: 0.435-0.720; p = 0.226) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.600 (95%CI: 0.462-0.739; p = 0.117). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 90-day mortality for the ML model was 0.839 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.884; p < 0.001), while the AUC for the MELD-Na score was 0.682 (95%CI: 0.575-0.790; p = 0.002) and for MELD 3.0 was 0.703 (95%CI: 0.590-0.816; p < 0.001). Our study demonstrates that ML-based models for predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis perform significantly better than MELD-Na and MELD 3.0 scores in a validation cohort.

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis

In this study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, establish and validate the nomogram. This retrospective study included patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Models were compared by the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discriminant improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 1,696 patients with cirrhosis and sepsis were included in the final cohort. Our final model included the following 9 variables: age, heartrate, total bilirubin (TBIL), glucose, sodium, anion gap (AG), fungal infections, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressin. The nomogram were constructed based on these variables. The AUC values of the nomograms were 0.805 (95% CI 0.776-0.833), which provided significantly higher discrimination compared to that of SOFA score [0.684 (95% CI 0.647-0.720)], MELD-Na [0.672 (95% CI 0.636-0.709)] and ABIC [0.674(95% CI 0.638-0.710)]. We established the first nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis based on these factors. This nomogram can performs well and facilitates clinicians to identify people at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

Red cell distribution width/platelet ratio estimates the 3-year risk of decompensation in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease-induced cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

For compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients, the first decompensation represents a dramatically worsening prognostic event. Based on the first decompensation event (DE), the transition to decompensated advanced chronic liver disease (dACLD) can occur through two modalities referred to as acute decompensation (AD) and non-AD (NAD), respectively. Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension (CSPH) is considered the strongest predictor of decompensation in these patients. However, due to its invasiveness and costs, CSPH is almost never evaluated in clinical practice. Therefore, recognizing non-invasively predicting tools still have more appeal across healthcare systems. The red cell distribution width to platelet ratio (RPR) has been reported to be an indicator of hepatic fibrosis in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD). However, its predictive role for the decompensation has never been explored.

AIM

In this observational study, we investigated the clinical usage of RPR in predicting DEs in MASLD-related cACLD patients.

METHODS

Fourty controls and 150 MASLD-cACLD patients were consecutively enrolled and followed up (FUP) semiannually for 3 years. At baseline, biochemical, clinical, and Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM), Child-Pugh (CP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), aspartate aminotransferase/platelet count ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI), ALBI-FIB-4, and RPR were collected. During FUP, DEs (timing and modaities) were recorded. CSPH was assessed at the baseline and on DE occurrence according to the available Clinical Practice Guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 150 MASLD-related cACLD patients, 43 (28.6%) progressed to dACLD at a median time of 28.9 months (29 NAD and 14 AD). Baseline RPR values were significantly higher in cACLD in comparison to controls, as well as MELD, CP, APRI, FIB-4, ALBI, ALBI-FIB-4, and LSM in dACLD-progressing compared to cACLD individuals [all P < 0.0001, except for FIB-4 (P: 0.007) and ALBI (P: 0.011)]. Receiving operator curve analysis revealed RPR > 0.472 and > 0.894 as the best cut-offs in the prediction respectively of 3-year first DE, as well as its superiority compared to the other non-invasive tools examined. RPR (P: 0.02) and the presence of baseline-CSPH (P: 0.04) were significantly and independently associated with the DE. Patients presenting baseline-CSPH and RPR > 0.472 showed higher risk of decompensation (P: 0.0023).

CONCLUSION

Altogether these findings suggest the RPR as a valid and potentially applicable non-invasive tool in the prediction of timing and modalities of decompensation in MASLD-related cACLD patients.

Validation of the albumin-bilirubin score for identifying decompensation risk in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is an index of liver function recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It can detect small changes in liver dysfunction and has been successfully applied to the prediction of survival in patients with non-malignant liver diseases of various etiologies.

AIM

To investigate the ALBI score for identifying decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

One-hundred and twenty-three patients with compensated cirrhosis without HCC in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital diagnosed by imaging were retrospectively enrolled from January 2016 to December 2020. A total of 113 patients (91.9%) had Child A cirrhosis with a median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of less than 9. Baseline clinical and laboratory variables and decompensation events were collected. The ALBI score was calculated and validated to classify decompensation risk into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups using three ALBI grade ranges (ALBI grade 1: ≤ -2.60; grade 2: > -2.60 but ≤ -1.39; grade 3: > -1.39). Decompensation events were defined as ascites development, variceal bleeding, or grade 3 or 4 hepatic encephalopathy.

RESULTS

Among 123 cirrhotic patients enrolled, 13.8% (n = 17) developed decompensating events at a median time of 25 [95% confidence interval (CI): 17-31] mo. Median baseline ALBI score in compensated cirrhosis was significantly lower than that of patients who developed decompensation events [-2.768 (-2.956 to -2.453) vs -2.007 (-2.533 to -1.537); P = 0.01]. Analysis of decompensation risk at 3 years showed that ALBI score had a time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.78-0.92), which was significantly better than that of ALBI-Fibrosis-4 (ALBI-FIB4) score (tAUC = 0.77), MELD score (tAUC = 0.66), Child-Pugh score (tAUC = 0.65), and FIB-4 score (tAUC = 0.48) (P < 0.05 for all). The 3-year cumulative incidence of decompensation was 3.1%, 22.6%, and 50% in the low-, middle-, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). The odds ratio for decompensation in patients of the high-risk group was 23.33 (95%CI: 3.88-140.12, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The ALBI score accurately identifies decompensation risk at the 3-year follow-up in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Those cirrhotic patients with a high-risk grade of ALBI score showed a 23 times greater odds of decompensation.

Potential of circulating receptor-interacting protein kinase 3 levels as a marker of acute liver injury

The pathogenesis of acute liver failure (ALF) involves cell death. Necroptosis is a newly suggested programmed cell death, and receptor-interacting protein kinase 3 (RIPK3) has been reported as a marker for necroptosis. However, there are few reports on necroptosis in ALF. Therefore, we evaluated the role of cell death markers such as cytokeratin (CK) 18, cleaved CK (cCK) 18, and RIPK3 in ALF, as well as cytokines and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF). Seventy-one hospitalized patients with acute liver injury (38 nonsevere hepatitis [non-SH]/22 severe hepatitis [SH]/11 ALF) were studied. No significant difference was found for cytokines, but a substantial increase in HGF levels was found following the severity of hepatitis. The non-SH group had lower levels of CK18 and cCK18 than the SH/ALF group. RIPK3 was significantly lower in the non-SH/SH group than in the ALF group. HGF, RIPK3, and albumin levels were found to be important predictive variables. The present study suggests that cCK18, CK18, and RIPK3 are associated with the severity of hepatitis. RIPK3 and other markers related cell death may be useful for understanding the pathogenesis of ALF and as a prognostic marker of acute liver injury.

Current Status and Future Direction of Albumin-Bilirubin in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Bibliometric Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor, so we need a convenient and objective way to diagnose and treat HCC. We discuss the current situation, progress, hotspots, and existing problems of Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) in HCC, which can provide new ideas for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of HCC.

METHODS

We adopt Excel 2019 software and visual analysis tools based on Web of Science database search. This manuscript uses VOSviewer, Co-Occurrence13.3 (COOC13.3) software to conduct overall trend analysis, synonym merging, frequency of countries, journals, institutions, funds, dissimilarity matrices, co-occurrence matrices, bimodal matrices, coupling matrices, cluster analysis of topic evolution time zone graphs.

RESULTS

A total of 610 papers were included, and the number of papers output showed an overall upward trend. ALBI has been valued by the industry in HCC and plays an important role in diagnosing and treating HCC, even better than the classic Child-Pugh (C-P) grade. At the same time, hot spots in the treatment of HCC and other applications of ALBI were discovered.

CONCLUSION

ALBI score is a convenient and objective liver function evaluation index, which plays an important role in the prediction of patient survival rate and prognosis. Promoting the ALBI score in HCC can help doctors judge the patient's condition and improve the diagnosis and precise treatment effect.

Retracted: Assessing the Prognostic Performance of the Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and Albumin-Bilirubin Scores in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Large Asian Cohort from Gastroenterology Department

[This retracts the article DOI: 10.1155/2020/5193028.].

Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Patients Who Have Undergone Liver Transplantation: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In liver transplant (LT) recipients, immunosuppressive therapy may potentially increase the risk of severe COVID-19 and may increase the mortality in patients. However, studies have shown conflicting results, with various studies reporting poor outcomes while the others show no difference between the LT recipients and healthy population. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on survival of LT recipients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study analyzing the data from 387 LT recipients diagnosed with COVID-19. LT recipients were divided into two groups: survival (n = 359) and non-survival (n = 28) groups. A logistic regression model was used to determine the independent risk factors for mortality. Machine learning models were used to analyze the contribution of independent variables to the mortality in LT recipients.

RESULTS

The COVID-19-related mortality rate in LT recipients was 7.2%. Multivariate analysis showed that everolimus use (p = 0.012; OR = 6.2), need for intubation (p = 0.001; OR = 38.4) and discontinuation of immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.047; OR = 7.3) were independent risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccination reduced the risk of mortality by 100 fold and was the single independent factor determining the survival of the LT recipients.

CONCLUSION

The effect of COVID-19 infection on LT recipients is slightly different from the effect of the disease on the general population. The COVID-19-related mortality is lower than the general population and vaccination for COVID-19 significantly reduces the risk of mortality.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Decompensated Cirrhotic Patients: A Comprehensive Overview

Primary liver cancer is the sixth most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for 75% of primary liver cancer cases, mostly on the basis of cirrhosis. However, the data and therapeutic options for the treatment of HCC in patients with decompensated cirrhosis are rather limited. This patient category is often considered to be in a terminal stage without the possibility of a specific treatment except liver transplantation, which is restricted by several criteria and liver donor shortages. Systemic treatments may provide a solution for patients with Child Pugh class B or C since they are less invasive. Although most of the existing trials have excluded patients with decompensated cirrhosis, there are increasing data from real-life settings that show acceptable tolerability and satisfying efficacy in terms of response. The data on the administration of locoregional treatments in such patients are also limited, but the overall survival seems to be potentially prolonged when patients are carefully selected, and close adverse event monitoring is applied. The aim of this review is to analyze the existing data regarding the administration of treatments in decompensated patients with HCC, evaluate the effect of therapy on overall survival and highlight the potential risks in terms of tolerability.

Evaluation of the Prognostic Value of Existing Scoring Systems for Nosocomial Infection in Patients with Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Many scoring systems have been developed to evaluate the severity and survival of end-stage liver disorder patients. However, the conduction of these different predicting models has not been thoroughly verified in cirrhotic patients with nosocomial infections. This study ended to compare the predictive accuracy of various scoring systems.

METHODS

During January 2015 and January 2020, liver cirrhosis patients with nosocomial infections were involved in this study. The clinical data, laboratory findings, and demographic characteristics of patients were collected during diagnosis. Patients were followed up for at least 6 months or till death.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-one patients meeting the criteria were enrolled and followed up for at least 6 months. The mortality rate at 30 days, 3 months, and 6 months was 23%, 35.1%, and 39.6%, respectively. The univariate analysis showed that all scoring systems indicated statistical significance between the surviving group and the non-surviving group at 6 months. Model for end-stage liver disease-Na showed excellent predictive accuracy in predicting the survival at 30 days, 3 months, 6 months, with the area under the curve of 0.807, 0.850, and 0.844, respectively. Model for end-stage liver disease-Na demonstrated sensitivities of more than 85%. In contrast, the child-turcotte-pugh and albumin-bilirubin scores showed a poorer predictive capability.

CONCLUSION

All 5 models for end-stage liver disease-related scores (model for end-stage liver disease, model for end-stage liver diseaseto-serum sodium ratio, model for end-stage liver disease-Na, model for end-stage liver disease-Delta, snd integrated model for endstage liver disease) exhibited a reliable prediction for mortality of long-term prognosis and short-term prognosis of cirrhotic patients with nosocomial infections. Among them, the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score might be the best choice.

The ALBI score: From liver function in patients with HCC to a general measure of liver function

The (albumin-bilirubin) ‘ALBI’ score is an index of ‘liver function’ that was recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, irrespective of the degree of underlying liver fibrosis. Other measures of liver function, such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh score, which were introduced for specific clinical scenarios, have seen their use extended to other areas of hepatology. In the case of ALBI, its application has been increasingly extended to chronic liver disease in general and in some instances to non-liver diseases where it has proven remarkably accurate in terms of prognosis. With respect to chronic liver disease, numerous publications have shown that ALBI is highly prognostic in patients with all types and stages of chronic liver disease. Outside of liver disease, ALBI has been reported as being of prognostic value in conditions ranging from chronic heart failure to brain tumours. Whilst in several of these reports, explanations for the relationship of liver function to a clinical condition have been proposed, it has to be acknowledged that the specificity of ALBI for liver function has not been clearly demonstrated. Nonetheless, and similar to the MELD and Child-Pugh scores, the lack of any mechanistic basis for ALBI’s clinical utility does not preclude it from being clinically useful in certain situations. Why albumin and bilirubin levels, or a combination thereof, are prognostic in so many different diseases should be studied in the future.

Rethinking Liver Fibrosis Staging in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: New Insights from a Large Two-Center Cohort Study

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent and aggressive malignancy closely related to background chronic liver disease. This study aimed to explore predictive factors associated with background liver fibrosis burden in patients with HCC and sought to construct a practical predictive model for clinical use.

Methods

This large two-center retrospective cohort study evaluated data from Chinese medical centers. Uni- and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with liver fibrosis stages. Predictive models based on variables identified by multivariate analysis were established in the Derivation Cohort and subjected to internal and external validation. Model performance was evaluated for discriminative and calibration abilities.

Results

Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis identified liver fibrosis severity score (LFSS), portal hypertension (PH) severity, plateletcrit (PCT) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) as independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage in HCC patients. Nomograms that integrated these factors disclosed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to predict S1 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts were 0.850 and 0.919, respectively. Internal validation disclosed C-indexes of 0.823 and 0.833 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good and excellent performance for distinguishing between S1 and non-S1 patients. Nomogram performance in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, was fair and good to predict stage S2 (AUROCs 0.726, 0.806; C-indexes 0.713, 0.791); poor for S3 (AUROCs 0.648, 0.698; C-indexes 0.616, 0.666); good for S4 (AUROCs 0.812, 0.824; C-indexes 0.804, 0.792); and good for S3+S4 (AUROCs 0.806, 0.840; C-indexes 0.795, 0.811).

Conclusion

We propose new predictive models for the staging of background liver fibrosis in patients with HCC that can be implemented into clinical practice as important complements to hepatic imaging to inform HCC management strategy.

Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Background

To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child–Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation.

Results

Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736–0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743–0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735–0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726–0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child–Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation.

Conclusion

The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02351-5.

Livogrit, a herbal formulation of Boerhavia diffusa, Phyllanthus niruri and Solanum nigrum reverses the thioacetamide induced hepatocellular toxicity in zebrafish model

Research studies in the past years have shown encouraging therapeutic potential of herbal medicines in liver ailments. Livogrit is a well characterized formulation prepared by mixing extracts of plants, Boerhavia diffusa, Phyllanthus niruri and Solanum nigrum in precise ratios. Our study demonstrates the curative role of Livogrit in thioacetamide (TAA) induced zebrafish model of hepatotoxicity. This is a systematic study, wherein we first screened Livogrit for an effective dose and treatment time-course. Once established, we conducted subsequent experiments to compare the hepatoprotective effects of Livogrit with a reference drug, prednisone. We evaluated a wide range of liver function variables including, albumin, AST, bilirubin, creatinine, platelet clotting factor, INR and sodium blood serum to assess the degree of liver dysfunctionality. Results from screening experiments suggested that Livogrit treatment for 14 days at an effective dose (ED3-142 μg/kg) significantly revamped the deviated serum biochemistry. The experiments comparing prednisone and Livogrit demonstrated that the treatment with the herbal formation was more effective against TAA-induced hepatotoxicity. Liver function parameters indicating hepatic dysfunctionality showed better recovery with Livogrit as compared to prednisone. Furthermore, we enumerated a scoring method for assessing degree of liver dysfunctionality based on the values of bilirubin, creatinine and INR. The herbal formulation in comparison to prednisone successfully restored the liver dysfunction index to low risk. The liver cytology showed a decline in the hepatocyte cell death that further corroborated the promising curative potential of Livogrit.

Impact of acute decompensation on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims

Organ failure in patients with acute decompensation (AD) is a defining characteristic of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the clinical features of AD during the long-term clinical course of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still poorly understood. This study aimed to clarify features and impact of AD/ACLF on the prognosis of patients after treatment for HCC.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled 556 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed with HCC, and analyses were conducted taking into account HCC treatment type, HCC stage, and presence or absence of cirrhosis.

Results

During follow-up, 299 patients with AD were hospitalized. AD occurrence is closely related to prognosis, regardless of the presence or absence of cirrhosis and HCC stage, and early-onset AD (within 90 days after HCC treatment) has negative impact on prognosis. In the intermediate-advanced–stage group, surgical resection had a positive impact on AD incidence post-treatment. After systemic therapy for HCC, renal impairment was the predictive factors for AD development. The 28/90-day mortality rate was higher among 41 cases (13.7%) with AD who exhibited ACLF as compared with cases without ACLF. AD without cirrhosis had similar ACLF incidence and short-term mortality, compared to AD with cirrhosis. The prognostic model using a decision-tree–based approach, which includes ACLF, bilirubin level, HCC progression, and MELD score is useful for predicting 90- or 28-day mortality after AD diagnosis.

Conclusions

Careful management of patients with HCC who are hospitalized with AD is necessary, considering ACLF, HCC progression, and liver function.

A New Scoring System for Predicting In-hospital Death in Patients Having Liver Cirrhosis With Esophageal Varices

Introduction: Liver cirrhosis is caused by the development of various acute and chronic liver diseases. Esophageal varices is a common and serious complication of liver cirrhosis during decompensation. Despite the development of various treatments, the prognosis for liver cirrhosis with esophageal varices (LCEV) remains poor. We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in LCEV patients.

Methods: Data on LCEV patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV) database. The patients from MIMIC-III were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Training cohort was used for establishing the model, validation and MIMIC-IV cohorts were used for validation. The independent prognostic factors for LCEV patients were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and forward stepwise logistic regression. We then constructed a nomogram to predict the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Nine independent prognostic factors were identified by using LASSO and stepwise regressions: age, Elixhauser score, anion gap, sodium, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, vasopressor use, and bleeding. The nomogram was then constructed and validated. The AUC value of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI = 0.832–0.904) in the training cohort, 0.846 (95% CI = 0.790–0.896) in the validation cohort and 0.840 (95% CI = 0.807–0.872) in the MIMIC-IV cohort. High AUC values indicated the good discriminative ability of the nomogram, while the calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated. Improvements in NRI and IDI values suggested that our nomogram was superior to MELD-Na, CAGIB, and OASIS scoring system. DCA curves indicated that the nomogram had good value in clinical applications.

Conclusion: We have established the first prognostic nomogram for predicting the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. The nomogram is easy to use, performs well, and can be used to guide clinical practice, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Predictors of Voriconazole Trough Concentrations in Patients with Child-Pugh Class C Cirrhosis: A Prospective Study

This prospective observational study aimed to clinically describe voriconazole administrations and trough concentrations in patients with Child–Pugh class C and to investigate the variability of trough concentration. A total of 144 voriconazole trough concentrations from 43 Child–Pugh class C patients were analyzed. The majority of patients (62.8%) received adjustments. The repeated measured trough concentration was higher than the first and final ones generally (median, 4.33 vs. 2.99, 3.90 mg/L). Eight patients with ideal initial concentrations later got supratherapeutic with no adjusted daily dose, implying accumulation. There was a significant difference in concentrations among the six groups by daily dose (p = 0.006). The bivariate correlation analysis showed that sex, CYP2C19 genotyping, daily dose, prothrombin time activity, international normalized ratio, platelet, and Model for end-stage liver disease score were significant factors for concentration. Subsequently, the first four factors mentioned above entered into a stepwise multiple linear regression model (variance inflation factor <5), implying that CYP2C19 testing makes sense for precision medicine of Child–Pugh class C cirrhosis patients. The equation fits well and explains the 34.8% variety of concentrations (R² = 0.348). In conclusion, it needs more cautious administration clinically due to no recommendation for Child–Pugh class C patients in the medication label. The adjustment of the administration regimen should be mainly based on the results of repeated therapeutic drug monitoring.

Association Between Serum IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and IL-23 Levels and Severity of Liver Cirrhosis

Background

Liver cirrhosis contributes to high liver-related mortality globally. Systemic inflammation mediated by immune cells contributes to the progression of liver cirrhosis. Growing evidence shows that several pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines might have an important role in liver cirrhosis.

Objective

To evaluate the association between serum IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and IL-23 levels and severity of liver cirrhosis.

Methods

This observational study was carried out at the Department of Internal Medicine, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Indonesia from March 2018 to August 2019. The severity of liver cirrhosis was assessed by using the Child-Pugh score. IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and IL-23 levels, hepatitis and renal function were measured in all study subjects. Independent t-test and Mann-Whitney tests were conducted to observe differences between groups.

Results

A total of 78 liver cirrhosis patients were enrolled, mean age was 50.6±11.4. Median serum IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and IL-23 levels were 24.5(2.6-46.4)pg/ml, 2.1(0.4-9.3)pg/ml, 3.5(1.4-20.8)pg/ml and 20.3(9.2-218)pg/ml, respectively. A higher IL-6 level was associated with more severe liver cirrhosis (p=0.001) and the presence of hepatic encephalopathy (p=0.018). Higher IL-23 level was found in patients with no hepatic encephalopathy (p=0.049). There was no association between serum cytokines levels and hepatitis viral infection status.

Conclusion

IL-6 is associated with the severity of liver cirrhosis.

Hepatobiliary Cancers, Version 2.2021, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology

The NCCN Guidelines for Hepatobiliary Cancers focus on the screening, diagnosis, staging, treatment, and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder cancer, and cancer of the bile ducts (intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma). Due to the multiple modalities that can be used to treat the disease and the complications that can arise from comorbid liver dysfunction, a multidisciplinary evaluation is essential for determining an optimal treatment strategy. A multidisciplinary team should include hepatologists, diagnostic radiologists, interventional radiologists, surgeons, medical oncologists, and pathologists with hepatobiliary cancer expertise. In addition to surgery, transplant, and intra-arterial therapies, there have been great advances in the systemic treatment of HCC. Until recently, sorafenib was the only systemic therapy option for patients with advanced HCC. In 2020, the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab became the first regimen to show superior survival to sorafenib, gaining it FDA approval as a new frontline standard regimen for unresectable or metastatic HCC. This article discusses the NCCN Guidelines recommendations for HCC.

Quantitative CT assessment by histogram and volume ratio in pyrrolizidines alkaloids-induced hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To quantitatively assess hypoattenuation volume ratio and hepatic parenchymal hypoattenuation on contrast enhanced computed tomography (CECT) in patients with pyrrolizidines alkaloids (PAs)-induced hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (HSOS), and evaluate the correlations of the CT-based quantitative values with clinical factors.

METHODS

Thirty-five patients with PAs-induced HSOS who underwent CECT were retrospectively enrolled. The ratio of hypoattenuation volume to total liver volume, and changes in damaged area-to-normal liver density ratio (ΔDR) derived from histogram on portal venous phase were quantitatively measured. Heterogeneous hypoattenuation (CT score) scored by hypoattenuation volume ratio and ΔDR were calculated. The correlation between imaging findings and clinical factors was analyzed using Pearson correlation test.

RESULTS

Liver function tests were abnormal in most patients, the mean Hounsfield unit (HU) of damaged area (58.68 ± 17.3) was significantly lower (P < 0.001) than the corresponding normal liver (82.27 ± 23.97). Heterogeneous hypoattenuation were mild in 13 patients (37 %), moderate in 16 patients (46 %), and severe in 6 patients (17 %). ΔDR derived from histogram was positively correlated (weakly to moderately) with total bilirubin (r = 0.341, P = 0.045), direct bilirubin (r = 0.385, P = 0.022), and alkaline phosphatase (r = 0.491, P = 0.003), while such correlation was not observed in hypoattenuation volume ratio. The severity of heterogeneous hypoattenuation scored by hypoattenuation volume ratio and ΔDR was positively correlated (weakly) with prothrombin time (r = 0.357, P = 0.035), international normalized ratio (r = 0.363, P = 0.032), alkaline phosphatase (r = 0.359, P = 0.034), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (r = 0.347, P = 0.041).

CONCLUSION

Heterogeneous hypoattenuation scored by volume ratio and ΔDR on CECT provides a non-invasive approach in evaluating the severity of PAs-induced HSOS.

Effect of High-Dose Baclofen on Agitation-Related Events Among Patients With Unhealthy Alcohol Use Receiving Mechanical Ventilation: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Unhealthy alcohol use can lead to agitation in the intensive care unit (ICU).

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether high-dose baclofen reduces agitation-related events compared with placebo in patients with unhealthy alcohol use receiving mechanical ventilation.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS

This phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial conducted in 18 ICUs in France recruited adults receiving mechanical ventilation who met criteria for unhealthy alcohol use. Patients were enrolled from June 2016 to February 2018; the last follow-up was in May 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Baclofen (n = 159), adjusted from 50 to 150 mg per day based on estimated glomerular filtration rate, or placebo (n = 155) during mechanical ventilation up to a maximum of 15 days before gradual dose reduction over 3 to 6 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was the percentage of patients with at least 1 agitation-related event over the treatment period. Secondary outcomes included duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

Among 314 patients who were randomized (mean age, 57 years; 60 [17.2%] women), 313 (99.7%) completed the trial. There was a statistically significant decrease in the percentage of patients who experienced at least 1 agitation-related event in the baclofen group vs the placebo group (31 [19.7%] vs 46 [29.7%]; difference, -9.93% [95% CI, -19.45% to -0.42%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.35-0.99]). Of 18 prespecified secondary end points, 14 were not significantly different. Compared with the placebo group, the baclofen group had a significantly longer median length of mechanical ventilation (9 vs 8 days; difference, 2.00 [95% CI, 0.00-3.00]; hazard ratio [HR] for extubation, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.60-0.97]) and stay in the ICU (14 vs 11 days; difference, 2.00 [95% CI, 0.00-4.00]; HR for discharge, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.54-0.90]). At 28 days, there was no significant difference in mortality in the baclofen vs placebo group (25.3% vs 21.6%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 0.72-2.13]). Delayed awakening (no eye opening at 72 hours after cessation of sedatives and analgesics) occurred in 14 patients (8.9%) in the baclofen group vs 3 (1.9%) in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with unhealthy alcohol use receiving mechanical ventilation, treatment with high-dose baclofen, compared with placebo, resulted in a statistically significant reduction in agitation-related events. However, considering the modest effect and the totality of findings for the secondary end points and adverse events, further research is needed to determine the possible role of baclofen in this setting and to potentially optimize dosing.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02723383.

Severity of Non-B and Non-C Hepatitis Versus Hepatitis B and C Associated Chronic Liver Disease: A Retrospective, Observational, Comparative Study

Background and objectives

Chronic liver disease (CLD) encompasses a variety of etiologies, and the infectious causes are mainly hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus. Chronic alcohol abuse and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease also have a major contribution to CLD. The Child-Pugh scoring system indicates the probable prognosis and mortality risk of a patient with cirrhosis. The primary objective of this research is to observe the mortality risks of CLD caused by a variety of etiologies mentioned above. The secondary objective is to determine the biochemical markers that are correlating with the severity of the study groups. Another aim was to determine the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring of each study group predicting the severity of disease among the Child-Pugh classification.

Materials and methods

We broadly classified the etiologies into two study groups: (1) hepatitis B, C associated CLD (hepatitis B, C­-CLD) and (2) non-hepatitis B, C associated CLD (non-hepatitis B, C-CLD). This study was conducted as a descriptive, retrospective study involving patients admitted to the Gastroenterology Department at Dow University Hospital between July 2019 and December 2019. All patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study in order to document their levels of severity markers of CLD. A total of 167 individuals met the inclusion criteria, and the sampling was done through non-probability consecutive methods. All continuous variables were described as mean and standard deviations, which were then compared using an independent sample t-test. The comparison of categorical data was done either using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test accordingly. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant (two-tailed).

Results

The mean age of the study population was 51.83 ± 13.67, with no difference in gender and type of CLD. The frequent co-morbidities (other than CLD) found in the study population were diabetes, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and chronic kidney disease, with most of them having significant association with non-hepatitis B, C-CLD. Both types of CLD had equal gender proportion (p=0.708). Among the study groups, 56.28% (n=94) had hepatitis B, C-CLD, out of which 18 (19%) belonged to Child-Pugh class A, 36 (38%) to Child-Pugh class B, and 40 (43%) to Child-Pugh class C, whereas 43.72% (n=71) had non-hepatitis B, C-CLD, comprising of 13% (n=10) of Child-Pugh class A patients, 42% (n=31) of Child-Pugh class B patients, and 44% (n=32) of Child-Pugh class C patients (p=0.631). Bilirubin levels (p=0.055), serum creatinine (p=0.201), and International normalized ratio (INR) are found higher in non-hepatitis B, C-CLD (p=0.312), whereas thrombocytopenia was more likely to be associated with hepatitis B, C-CLD (p=0.205). Hyponatremia was slightly associated with non-hepatitis B, C-CLD (p=0.281). The mean MELD score was comparable among the two study groups in both Child-Pugh classes A and B, but in Child-Pugh class C it was significantly higher in non-hepatitis B, C-CLD patients as compared to hepatitis B, C­-CLD (p=0.006).

Conclusion

Non-hepatitis B, C-CLD was proved to be milder in Child-Pugh class A as compared to hepatitis B, C-CLD, but its mortality risk increases with severity, as mean MELD score was found significantly higher in Child-Pugh class C. Our research was able to identify severe biochemical markers in both types of CLD.