Prediction and Risk Factors for Prognosis of Cirrhotic Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

Management of hepatic encephalopathy following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts: Current strategies and future directions

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPSs) are generally used for the management of complications of portal hypertension in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), which impairs neuropsychiatric function and motor control, remains the primary adverse effect of TIPS, limiting its utility. Prompt prevention and treatment of post-TIPS HE are critical, as they are strongly associated with readmission rates and poor quality of life. This review focuses on the main pathophysiological mechanisms underlying post-TIPS HE, explores advanced biomarkers and predictive tools, and discusses current management strategies and future directions to prevent or reverse HE following TIPS. These strategies include preoperative patient assessment, individualized shunt diameter optimization, spontaneous portosystemic shunt embolization during the TIPS procedure, postoperative preventive and therapeutic measures such as nutrition management, medical therapy, fecal microbiota transplantation, and stent reduction.

Hepatic encephalopathy: risk identification and prophylaxis approaches

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a debilitating neurological condition associated with cirrhosis, characterized by cognitive impairment ranging from minimal to overt symptoms. It significantly impacts patients' quality of life and substantially burdens healthcare systems. This review examines current prophylactic strategies for HE, focusing on established treatments, emerging therapies, and predictive tools to identify high-risk patients. Traditional treatments such as lactulose and rifaximin remain the cornerstone of HE management, effectively reducing ammonia levels and preventing recurrence. However, novel approaches like L-ornithine L-aspartate, albumin infusions, and antioxidants like resveratrol show promise in further improving outcomes by addressing underlying pathophysiological mechanisms, including systemic inflammation and gut dysbiosis. Developing predictive models, such as the AMMON-OHE score and clinical-genetic risk assessments, enhances the ability to tailor preventive interventions to individual patient profiles. These advancements are crucial in mitigating the incidence of overt HE, reducing hospital admissions, and improving patient survival rates. The future of HE management lies in personalized medicine, targeting specific inflammatory and metabolic pathways, with the potential integration of genetic manipulation. Continued research is essential to refine these strategies, ultimately aiming to improve the prognosis and quality of life for cirrhotic patients at risk of HE.

A prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time indicates poor short-term prognosis in patients with hepatic encephalopathy: insights from the MIMIC database

Objectives

This study investigates serum markers for short-term prognosis in hepatic encephalopathy patients.

Background

Patients with hepatic encephalopathy face elevated mortality rates and bleak prognoses. However, effective prognostic models or indicators are lacking. This study aims to explore serum markers for predicting short-term prognosis in these patients.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 552 patients with hepatic encephalopathy, categorizing 429 individuals meeting exclusion criteria into normal and high activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) groups. We assessed 12-day and 25-day survival rates using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models to examine associations between groups and outcomes.

Results

Upon comparing baseline characteristics, the high APTT group exhibited significant disparities in acute kidney injury, sepsis, coagulation disorders, and ascites (p < 0.05). In the multivariate COX regression model, the hazard ratios [HRs; 95% confidence interval (CI)] of 12- and 25-day mortality were 1.012 (1.001, 1.022, p = 0.033) and 1.010 (1.002, 1.018, p = 0.013), respectively. We discovered that APTT demonstrated an independent association with prognosis. Our findings revealed that the ability of APTT to predict short-term prognosis surpasses that of the traditional MELD model. Regarding 12- and 25-day survival, Kaplan-Meier survival curves from these groups demonstrated a lower survival probability for patients in the high APTT group than the normal group (log-rank p < 0.05). The results of subgroup analysis and interaction analysis indicate that APTT is not influenced by other confounding factors.

Conclusion

A prolonged APTT suggests a poorer short-term prognosis in patients with hepatic encephalopathy.

The CYP4/20-HETE/GPR75 axis in the progression metabolic dysfunction-associated steatosis liver disease (MASLD) to chronic liver disease

Introduction

Metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatosis liver disease (MASLD) is a progressive liver disease from simple steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) can lead to portal hypertension, which is a major cause of complications of cirrhosis. CLDs cause structural alterations across the liver through increased contents of extracellular matrix (ECM), driving dysfunction of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSECs) alongside hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) and activated resident or infiltrating immune cells. Bioactive arachidonic metabolites have diverse roles in the progression of MASLD. Both secreted levels of 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (20-HETE) and epoxyeicosatrienoic acid (EET) are elevated in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Methods

CLD samples were evaluated for changes in free fatty acids (FFA), cholesterol, bilirubin, bile acid, reactive oxygen species (ROD), lipid peroxidation, myeloperoxidase activity and hydroxyproline levels to evaluate the degrees of liver damage and fibrosis. To address the role of the CYP4/20-HETE/GPR75 axis, we measured the amount and the synthesis of 20-HETE in patients with CLD, specifically during the progression of MASLD. Additionally, we evaluated gene expression and protein levels of GPR75, a high-affinity receptor for 20-HETE across CLD patient samples.

Results

We observed an increase in 20-HETE levels and synthesis during the progression of MASLD. Increased synthesis of 20-HETE correlated with the expression of CYP4A11 genes but not CYP4F2. These results were confirmed by increased P4504A11 protein levels and decreased P4504F2 protein levels during the development and progression of MASLD. The gene expression and protein levels of GPR75, the major receptor for 20-HETE, increased in the progression of MASLD. Interestingly, the CYP4A11 and GPR75 mRNA levels increased in steatohepatitis but dramatically dropped in cirrhosis and then increased in patients with HCC. Also, protein levels of P4504A11 and GPR75 mirrored their mRNA levels.

Discussion

These results indicate that the CYP4A11 and subsequent GPR75 genes are coordinately regulated in the progression of MASLD and may have multiple roles, including 20-HETE activation of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α (PPARα) in steatosis and GPR75 in CLD through either increased cell proliferation or vasoconstriction in portal hypertension during cirrhosis. The abrupt reduction in CYP4A11 and GPR75 in patients with cirrhosis may also be due to increased 20-HETE, serving as a feedback mechanism via GPR75, leading to reduced CYP4A11 and GPR75 gene expression. This work illustrates key correlations associated with the CYP4/20-HETE/GPR75 axis and the progression of liver disease in humans.

Predictive Factors and Nomogram for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Decompensated Cirrhosis Among the Elderly

Background and Aims

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) represents a significant complication in the decompensated phase of cirrhosis. The challenges in treating SBP and the associated mortality rates are markedly elevated in elderly individuals. Timely detection and intervention for SBP are imperative. We aimed to develop a predictive tool for the occurrence of SBP in elderly individuals with decompensated cirrhosis (DC).

Methods

Elderly patients diagnosed with DC were enrolled from Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital in China, spanning from January 1, 2015, to September 31, 2023. Among the patients, 337 were assigned to the training cohort, while 145 were designated to the validation cohort. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors and to develop a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of SBP. To evaluate the model's discrimination and calibration, a bootstrap method with 1000 resamples was utilized.

Results

Findings from the multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that constipation (odds ratio [OR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-3.49, P=0.005), ascites (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.64-4.92, P<0.001), Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score (OR 4.80, 95% CI 1.69-13.60, P=0.003), and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.54-5.45, P=0.001) were significant independent predictors for the occurrence of SBP in elderly individuals with DC. The generated nomogram showed an area under the curve of 0.779 for the training cohort and 0.817 for the validation cohort. The nomogram's calibration curve nearly matched the perfect diagonal line, and decision curve analysis showed an improved net benefit for the model. Subsequent validation further corroborated the reliability of the predictive nomogram.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the nomogram, incorporating variables such as constipation, ascites, CPT score, and hs-CRP, effectively predicted the occurrence of SBP in elderly patients with DC, underscoring its substantial clinical applicability.

Hepatic encephalopathy post-TIPS: Current status and prospects in predictive assessment

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an essential procedure for the treatment of portal hypertension but can result in hepatic encephalopathy (HE), a serious complication that worsens patient outcomes. Investigating predictors of HE after TIPS is essential to improve prognosis. This review analyzes risk factors and compares predictive models, weighing traditional scores such as Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) against emerging artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. While traditional scores provide initial insights into HE risk, they have limitations in dealing with clinical complexity. Advances in machine learning (ML), particularly when integrated with imaging and clinical data, offer refined assessments. These innovations suggest the potential for AI to significantly improve the prediction of post-TIPS HE. The study provides clinicians with a comprehensive overview of current prediction methods, while advocating for the integration of AI to increase the accuracy of post-TIPS HE assessments. By harnessing the power of AI, clinicians can better manage the risks associated with TIPS and tailor interventions to individual patient needs. Future research should therefore prioritize the development of advanced AI frameworks that can assimilate diverse data streams to support clinical decision-making. The goal is not only to more accurately predict HE, but also to improve overall patient care and quality of life.

Optic nerve sheath diameters predict mortality and severity in hepatic encephalopathy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the predictive power of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) measured by brain computed tomography (CT) in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department, with other factors for mortality and disease severity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 217 patients aged 18 years and older with acute decompensation of cirrhosis diagnosed with HE in the emergency department were included in the study. To compare with patients diagnosed with HE, a total of 217 individuals were included in the study as the healthy control group. ONSD measurements were performed on both the HE patients and the healthy control group in the brain CT.

RESULTS

The mortality rate of HE patients was 32.7%. Regarding the severity of the disease, 53% of the patients had late-stage HE. The presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure was detected in 51.4% of patients. The mortality rate among acute-on-chronic liver failure patients was 56.6%. According to the study data, ONSD, creatinine, lactate, and procalcitonin were independent predictors of mortality. Meanwhile, Child-Pugh score, direct bilirubin, ONSD, ammonia, and total bilirubin were independent predictors of disease severity. In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the ONSD had the highest predictive power for mortality and disease severity among the determined predictive values.

CONCLUSION

The data from the study suggests that assessing the ONSD through brain CT scans in individuals diagnosed with HE in the emergency department may provide valuable insights for clinicians, aiding in the prediction of both mortality rates and the severity of the disease.

Construction of a prediction model for hepatic encephalopathy in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

OBJECTIVE

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a serious complication of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) that requires early detection and intervention to positively impact patient prognosis. This study aimed to develop a reliable model to predict HE in ACLF patients during hospitalization.

METHODS

Retrospectively recruiting 255 hepatitis B-related ACLF patients, including 67 who developed HE during hospitalization, the study analysed clinical data and biochemical indices collected during the first week of admission. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to identify characteristic predictors for hospitalization HE events, and a logistic regression model was subsequently developed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and bootstrap resampling were used to evaluate the model's discrimination, consistency, and accuracy, and a nomogram was created to visualize the model. An external validation cohort of 236 liver failure patients collected from the same medical centre between 2007 and 2010 was used to validate the model.

RESULTS

The study found that blood urea nitrogen (BUN), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), serum ammonia, and infection complications during hospitalization were risk factors for HE in ACLF patients. The new model predicted the development of HE in ACLF patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 85.2%, which was superior to other models. The best threshold for the new model was 0.28, resulting in a specificity of 81.4% and a sensitivity of 80.6%. In the validation group, the new model showed similar results, with an AUROC of 79% and a specificity of 83.6% and a sensitivity of 56.6%.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated a new prediction model for HE in ACLF patients offering a useful tool for early identification of patients with a high risk of HE in clinical settings. However, to ascertain the model's general effectiveness, future prospective multicentre studies are warranted.

Recurrence of portosystemic encephalopathy in cirrhotic patients and its risk factors

OBJECTIVES

Recurrent episodes of Portal Systemic Encephalopathy (PSE), poses a significant burden of illness on the patients and healthcare system. The objective of this study was to assess the recurrence of PSE in cirrhotic patients after index episode of PSE and to identify various risk factors associated with it.

METHODS

A retrospective, single-centre study was conducted at Aga Khan University Hospital over a span of one year. Patients who were admitted first time with PSE and admitted within three months of index PSE were enrolled in the study. Variables assessed were demographic data, associated comorbid conditions, aetiology of cirrhosis, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, PSE grade, laboratory tests, ascites with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), variceal bleeding. Statistical analysis was done and variables of those who developed recurrence were compared with those who did not.

RESULTS

Fifty one patients were recruited. Thirty three (64.7%) were readmitted with PSE. On comparative analysis of both groups; infection, Meld score, low albumin, and raised total bilirubin showed significant P-value (<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Identification of risk factors during assessment can reduce the recurrence of PSE. We would recommend to validate result of our study on a large scale prospectively.

General anesthesia in patients with hepatic encephalopathy and acute variceal bleeding undergoing endoscopic treatment: A retrospective study

The management of cirrhotic patient with encephalopathy and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remains a clinical challenge with a high mortality. Early endoscopic therapies are frequently applied in patients with AVB. However, the application of general anesthesia in endoscopic surgery for patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is pretty challenging. The present study aimed to evaluate the possible effect of general anesthesia with tracheal intubation on patient complicated with encephalopathy and AVB during endoscopic procedure. Thirty-six cirrhotic patients with encephalopathy and AVB were retrospectively studied, 14 patients underwent endoscopic treatment under general anesthesia with tracheal intubation, and 22 patients received pharmacological treatment, or and endoscopic therapy without general anesthesia served as the control group. Routine clinical and laboratory data were collected. The total mortality rate was 13.9% (5/36), 2 (14.3%) in the anesthesia group, 3 (13.6%) in the control group. The child-Pugh class of death cases were all grade C, 3 (60%) of them were in the stage IV of HE. The stage of HE was all improved in the 2 groups, 12 (85.8 %) patients were totally recovered from consciousness disturbance in the anesthesia group and 16 (72.7 %) in the control group respectively, the difference between the 2 groups was not significant (P>0.05). Except the death cases, there were still 3 patients in the control group had impaired consciousness at discharge. Child-Pugh score, Child-Pugh class and the stage of HE in the anesthesia group were significantly improved at discharge compared with those before operation. General anesthesia does not aggravate the severity of encephalopathy, and endoscopic treatment under general anesthesia with tracheal intubation is effective for HE patients complicated with AVB.

Myocardial injury is a risk factor for 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis associated esophagogastric variceal bleeding

This study sought to investigate risk factors for 6-week mortality of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis associated esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) and clinical characteristics of myocardial injury in cirrhotic patients with EGVB. This retrospective cohort study included 249 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis associated EGVB in the Department of Emergency. Patients were divided into two groups including liver cirrhosis associated EGVB without myocardial injury and liver cirrhosis associated EGVB with myocardial injury. Myocardial injury, recurrent bleeding, total bilirubin (TBIL) level and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis associated EGVB. Among all patients with liver cirrhosis associated EGVB, 90 (36.2%) had myocardial injury and 159 individuals (63.8%) not. The 6-week mortality in the group with myocardial injury was 21%, which was significantly higher than that of 7% in the group without myocardial injury. More patients in the myocardial injury group smoked, had moderate to severe esophageal varices, liver failure, and Child-Pugh C liver function compared to the non-myocardial injury group. Myocardial injury, recurrent bleeding, TBIL level and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for death within 6 weeks in liver cirrhosis associated EGVB. The 6-week mortality is considerably higher in patients with myocardial injury in liver cirrhosis associated EGVB than those without myocardial injury.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

A novel nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a critical illness with high mortality. Herein, we developed and validated a new and simple prognostic nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study collected data from 181 HBV-ACLF patients treated between June 2018 and March 2020. The correlation between clinical data and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (p = 0.011), hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.001), total bilirubin (p = 0.007), international normalized ratio (p = 0.006), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.011) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. A nomogram was created to predict 90-day mortality using these risk factors. The C-index for the prognostic nomogram was calculated as 0.866, and confirmed to be 0.854 via bootstrapping verification. The area under the curve was 0.870 in the external validation cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram was similar to that of the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B score, and exceeded the performance of other prognostic scores.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomogram constructed using the factors identified in multivariate regression analysis might serve as a beneficial tool to predict 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Validation of prognostic scores predicting mortality in acute liver decompensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure: A Thailand multicenter study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

Cirrhosis patients with worsening of the liver function are defined as acute decompensation (AD) and those who develop extrahepatic organ failure are defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Both AD and ACLF have an extremely poor prognosis. However, information regarding prognostic predictors is still lacking in Asian populations. We aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day and 90-day mortality in cirrhosis patients who develop AD with or without ACLF.

METHODS

We included 9 tertiary hospitals from Thailand in a retrospective observational study enrolling hospitalized cirrhosis patients with AD. ACLF was diagnosed according to the EASL-CLIF criteria, which defined as AD patients who have kidney failure or a combination of at least two non-kidney organ failure. Outcomes were clinical parameters and prognostic scores associated with mortality evaluated at 30 days and 90 days.

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2020, 602 patients (301 for each group) were included. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF vs. AD were 57.48% vs. 25.50% (p<0.001) and 67.44% vs. 32.78% (p<0.001), respectively. For ACLF patients, logistic regression analysis adjusted for demographic data, and clinical information showed that increasing creatinine was a predictor for 30-day mortality (p = 0.038), while the CLIF-C OF score predicted both 30-day (p = 0.018) and 90-day (p = 0.037) mortalities, achieving the best discriminatory power with AUROCs of 0.705 and 0.709, respectively. For AD patients, none of the parameters was found to be significantly associated with 30-day mortality, while bacterial infection, CLIF-AD score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score were independent parameters associated with 90-day mortality, with p values of 0.041, 0.024 and 0.024. However, their predictive performance became nonsignificant after adjustment by multivariate regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Regarding Thai patients, the CLIF-C OF score was the best predictor for 30-day and 90-day mortalities in ACLF patients, while appropriate prognostic factors for AD patients remained inconclusive.