Metabolic Syndrome Prediction Models Using Machine Learning and Sasang Constitution Type

Development of a Predictive Model for Metabolic Syndrome Using Noninvasive Data and its Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessments: Multicohort Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of metabolic abnormalities, including obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance, that significantly increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic conditions. Its global prevalence is rising, particularly in aging and urban populations. Traditional screening methods rely on laboratory tests and specialized assessments, which may not be readily accessible in routine primary care and community settings. Limited resources, time constraints, and inconsistent screening practices hinder early identification and intervention. Developing a noninvasive and scalable predictive model could enhance accessibility and improve early detection.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for metabolic syndrome using noninvasive body composition data. Additionally, we evaluated the model's ability to predict long-term CVD risk, supporting its application in clinical and public health settings for early intervention and preventive strategies.

METHODS

We developed a machine learning-based predictive model using noninvasive data from two nationally representative cohorts: the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. The model was trained using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry data from KNHANES (2008-2011) and validated internally with bioelectrical impedance analysis data from KNHANES 2022. External validation was conducted using Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study follow-up datasets. Five machine learning algorithms were compared, and the best-performing model was selected based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the model's ability to predict long-term CVD risk.

RESULTS

The model demonstrated strong predictive performance across validation cohorts. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for metabolic syndrome prediction ranged from 0.8338 to 0.8447 in internal validation, 0.8066 to 0.8138 in external validation 1, and 0.8039 to 0.8123 in external validation 2. The model's predictions were significantly associated with future cardiovascular risk, with Cox regression analysis indicating that individuals classified as having metabolic syndrome had a 1.51-fold higher risk of developing CVD (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.32-1.73; P<.001). The ability to predict long-term CVD risk highlights the potential utility of this model for guiding early interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a noninvasive predictive model for metabolic syndrome with strong performance across diverse validation cohorts. By enabling early risk identification without laboratory tests, the model enhances accessibility in primary care and large-scale screenings. Its ability to predict long-term CVD risk supports proactive intervention strategies, potentially reducing the burden of cardiometabolic diseases. Further research should refine the model with additional clinical factors and broader population validation to maximize its clinical impact.

Gender Differences in Predicting Metabolic Syndrome Among Hospital Employees Using Machine Learning Models: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a complex condition that captures several markers of dysregulation, including obesity, elevated blood glucose levels, dyslipidemia and hypertension. Using an approach to early prediction of MetS risk in hospital employees that takes into account the differing effects of gender may be expected to improve cardiovascular disease-related health outcomes.

PURPOSE

In this study, machine learning techniques were applied to construct an optimized MetS prediction model for use on hospital employees.

METHODS

This population-based study survey included 3,537 participants aged 20 to 65 years old. Participant demographic, anthropometric data, medical history, lifestyle-related factor, and biochemical data were collected from the hospital's Health Management Information System from 2018 to 2020. MetS prediction and the investigation of gender differences were performed using six machine learning models based on the following algorithms: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, neural network, and Naïve Bayes. All analyses were performed by sequentially inputting the features in three steps according to their characteristics.

RESULTS

MetS was detected in 8.91% of the participants. Among the MetS prediction models, Naïve Bayes showed the best performance, with a sensitivity of 0.825, an accuracy of 0.859 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.936. Body mass index and alanine transaminase were identified as important predictive factors for MetS in participants of both genders. Age, uric acid, and aspartate transaminase were identified as important predictive factors in men, while chronic disease and phosphorous were identified as important predictive factors in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate Naïve Bayes model to be useful and accurate in identifying MetS in hospital employees independent of gender. The early prediction of MetS using a model that accounts for gender differences is an important part of routine health screening and requires a multidimensional approach, including self-administered questionnaires and anthropometric and biochemical measurements.

Predictive modelling of metabolic syndrome in Ghanaian diabetic patients: an ensemble machine learning approach

Objectives

The burgeoning prevalence of cardiometabolic disorders, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) within Africa is concerning. Machine learning (ML) techniques offer a unique opportunity to leverage data-driven insights and construct predictive models for MetS risk, thereby enhancing the implementation of personalised prevention strategies. In this work, we employed ML techniques to develop predictive models for pre-MetS and MetS among diabetic patients.

Methods

This multi-centre cross-sectional study comprised of 919 T2DM patients. Age, gender, novel anthropometric indices along with biochemical measures were analysed using BORUTA feature selection and an ensemble majority voting classification model, which included logistic regression, k-nearest neighbour, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Gradient boosting classification, and support vector machine.

Results

Distinct metabolic profiles and phenotype clusters were associated with MetS progression. The BORUTA algorithm identified 10 and 16 significant features for pre-MetS and MetS prediction, respectively. For pre-MetS, the top-ranked features were lipid accumulation product (LAP), triglyceride-glucose index adjusted for waist-to-height ratio (TyG-WHtR), coronary risk (CR), visceral adiposity index (VAI) and abdominal volume index (AVI). For MetS prediction, the most influential features were VAI, LAP, waist triglyceride index (WTI), Very low-density cholesterol (VLDLC) and TyG-WHtR. Majority voting ensemble classifier demonstrated superior performance in predicting pre-MetS (AUC = 0.79) and MetS (AUC = 0.87).

Conclusion

Identifying these risk factors reveals the complex interplay between visceral adiposity and metabolic dysregulation in African populations, enabling early detection and treatment. Ethical integration of ML algorithms in clinical decision-making can streamline identification of high-risk individuals, optimize resource allocation, and enable precise, tailored interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-024-01491-7.

Exploring Stroke Risk through Mendelian Randomization: A Comprehensive Study Integrating Genetics and Metabolic Traits in the Korean Population

Numerous risk factors play a role in the causation of stroke, and the cardiometabolic condition is a one of the most important. In Korea, various treatment methods are employed based on the constitutional type, which is known to differ significantly in cardiometabolic disease. In this study, we compared the estimates obtained for different groups by applying the Mendelian randomization method to investigate the causal effects of genetic characteristics on stroke, according to constitutional type. In clinical analysis, the subtypes differ significantly in diabetes or dyslipidemia. The genetic association estimates for the stroke subtype risk were obtained from MEGASTROKE, the International Stroke Genetics Consortium (ISGC), UKbiobank, and BioBank Japan (BBJ), using group-related SNPs as instrumental variables. The TE subtypes with higher risk of metabolic disease were associated with increased risk (beta = 4.190; s.e. = 1.807; p = 0.035) of cardioembolic stroke (CES), and the SE subtypes were associated with decreased risk (beta = -9.336, s.e. = 1.753; p = 3.87 × 10-5) of CES. The findings highlight the importance of personalized medicine in assessing disease risk based on an individual's constitutional type.

The effect of data balancing approaches on the prediction of metabolic syndrome using non-invasive parameters based on random forest

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of metabolic abnormalities (including obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia), which can be used to identify at-risk populations for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The achievement of a simple approach for diagnosing MetS without needing biochemical tests is so valuable. The present study aimed to predict MetS using non-invasive features based on a successful random forest learning algorithm. Also, to deal with the problem of data imbalance that naturally exists in this type of data, the effect of two different data balancing approaches, including the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and Random Splitting data balancing (SplitBal), on model performance is investigated.

RESULTS

The most important determinant for MetS prediction was waist circumference. Applying a random forest learning algorithm to imbalanced data, the trained models reach 86.9% and 79.4% accuracies and 37.1% and 38.2% sensitivities in men and women, respectively. However, by applying the SplitBal data balancing technique, the best results were obtained, and despite that the accuracy of the trained models decreased by 7.8% and 11.3%, but their sensitivity improved significantly to 82.3% and 73.7% in men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The random forest learning method, along with data balancing techniques, especially SplitBal, could create MetS prediction models with promising results that can be applied as a useful prognostic tool in health screening programs.

Metabolic syndrome prediction using non-invasive and dietary parameters based on a support vector machine

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a widely used index for finding people at risk for chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Early detection of MetS is especially important in prevention programs. Relying on previous studies that suggest machine learning methods as a valuable approach for diagnosing MetS, this study aimed to develop MetS prediction models based on support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, applying non-invasive and low-cost (NI&LC), and also dietary parameters.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based research was conducted on a large dataset of 4596 participants within the framework of the Shahedieh cohort study. An Extremely Randomized Trees Classifier was used to select the most effective features among NI&LC and dietary data. The prediction models were developed based on SVM algorithms, and their performance was assessed by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction value, negative prediction value, f1-score, and receiver operating characteristic curve. MetS was diagnosed in 14% of men and 22% of women. Among NI&LC features, waist circumference, body mass index, waist-to-height ratio, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were the most predictive variables. By using NI&LC features, models with 78.4% and 63.5% accuracy and 81.2% and 75.3% sensitivity were yielded for men and women, respectively. By incorporating NI&LC and dietary features, the accuracy of the model in women improved by 3.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

SVM algorithms had promising potential for early detection of MetS relying on NI&LC parameters. These models can be used in prevention programs, clinical practice, and personal applications.

Automated Machine Learning to Develop Predictive Models of Metabolic Syndrome in Patients with Periodontal Disease

Metabolic syndrome is experiencing a concerning and escalating rise in prevalence today. The link between metabolic syndrome and periodontal disease is a highly relevant area of research. Some studies have suggested a bidirectional relationship between metabolic syndrome and periodontal disease, where one condition may exacerbate the other. Furthermore, the existence of periodontal disease among these individuals significantly impacts overall health management. This research focuses on the relationship between periodontal disease and metabolic syndrome, while also incorporating data on general health status and overall well-being. We aimed to develop advanced machine learning models that efficiently identify key predictors of metabolic syndrome, a significant emphasis being placed on thoroughly explaining the predictions generated by the models. We studied a group of 296 patients, hospitalized in SCJU Sibiu, aged between 45-79 years, of which 57% had metabolic syndrome. The patients underwent dental consultations and subsequently responded to a dedicated questionnaire, along with a standard EuroQol 5-Dimensions 5-Levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. The following data were recorded: DMFT (Decayed, Missing due to caries, and Filled Teeth), CPI (Community Periodontal Index), periodontal pockets depth, loss of epithelial insertion, bleeding after probing, frequency of tooth brushing, regular dental control, cardiovascular risk, carotid atherosclerosis, and EQ-5D-5L score. We used Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) frameworks to build predictive models in order to determine which of these risk factors exhibits the most robust association with metabolic syndrome. To gain confidence in the results provided by the machine learning models provided by the AutoML pipelines, we used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values for the interpretability of these models, from a global and local perspective. The obtained results confirm that the severity of periodontal disease, high cardiovascular risk, and low EQ-5D-5L score have the greatest impact in the occurrence of metabolic syndrome.

Development of a Metabolic Syndrome Classification and Prediction Model for Koreans Using Deep Learning Technology: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) (2013-2018)

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its cost are increasing due to lifestyle changes and aging. This study aimed to develop a deep neural network model for prediction and classification of MetS according to nutrient intake and other MetS-related factors. This study included 17,848 individuals aged 40-69 years from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018). We set MetS (3-5 risk factors present) as the dependent variable and 52 MetS-related factors and nutrient intake variables as independent variables in a regression analysis. The analysis compared and analyzed model accuracy, precision and recall by conventional logistic regression, machine learning-based logistic regression and deep learning. The accuracy of train data was 81.2089, and the accuracy of test data was 81.1485 in a MetS classification and prediction model developed in this study. These accuracies were higher than those obtained by conventional logistic regression or machine learning-based logistic regression. Precision, recall, and F1-score also showed the high accuracy in the deep learning model. Blood alanine aminotransferase (β = 12.2035) level showed the highest regression coefficient followed by blood aspartate aminotransferase (β = 11.771) level, waist circumference (β = 10.8555), body mass index (β = 10.3842), and blood glycated hemoglobin (β = 10.1802) level. Fats (cholesterol [β = -2.0545] and saturated fatty acid [β = -2.0483]) showed high regression coefficients among nutrient intakes. The deep learning model for classification and prediction on MetS showed a higher accuracy than conventional logistic regression or machine learning-based logistic regression.

“Big Data” Approaches for Prevention of the Metabolic Syndrome

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by the concurrence of multiple metabolic disorders resulting in the increased risk of a variety of diseases related to disrupted metabolism homeostasis. The prevalence of MetS has reached a pandemic level worldwide. In recent years, extensive amount of data have been generated throughout the research targeted or related to the condition with techniques including high-throughput screening and artificial intelligence, and with these “big data”, the prevention of MetS could be pushed to an earlier stage with different data source, data mining tools and analytic tools at different levels. In this review we briefly summarize the recent advances in the study of “big data” applications in the three-level disease prevention for MetS, and illustrate how these technologies could contribute tobetter preventive strategies.

Prediction of metabolic and pre-metabolic syndromes using machine learning models with anthropometric, lifestyle, and biochemical factors from a middle-aged population in Korea

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a complex condition that appears as a cluster of metabolic abnormalities, and is closely associated with the prevalence of various diseases. Early prediction of the risk of MetS in the middle-aged population provides greater benefits for cardiovascular disease-related health outcomes. This study aimed to apply the latest machine learning techniques to find the optimal MetS prediction model for the middle-aged Korean population.

METHODS

We retrieved 20 data types from the Korean Medicine Daejeon Citizen Cohort, a cohort study on a community-based population of adults aged 30-55 years. The data included sex, age, anthropometric data, lifestyle-related data, and blood indicators of 1991 individuals. Participants satisfying two (pre-MetS) or ≥ 3 (MetS) of the five NECP-ATP III criteria were included in the MetS group. MetS prediction used nine machine learning models based on the following algorithms: Decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbor, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, and 1D convolutional neural network. All analyses were performed by sequentially inputting the features in three steps according to their characteristics. The models' performances were compared after applying the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to resolve data imbalance.

RESULTS

MetS was detected in 33.85% of the subjects. Among the MetS prediction models, the tree-based random forest and XGBoost models showed the best performance, which improved with the number of features used. As a measure of the models' performance, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased by up to 0.091 when the SMOTE was applied, with XGBoost showing the highest AUC of 0.851. Body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio were identified as the most important features in the MetS prediction models for this population.

CONCLUSIONS

Tree-based machine learning models were useful in identifying MetS with high accuracy in middle-aged Koreans. Early diagnosis of MetS is important and requires a multidimensional approach that includes self-administered questionnaire, anthropometric, and biochemical measurements.