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Ma Y, Qi J, Zhang X, Liu K, Liu Y, Yu X, Bu Y, Chen B. Development and application of an early warning model for predicting early mortality following stent placement in malignant biliary obstruction: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and artificial neural network approaches. Oncol Lett 2025; 29:237. [PMID: 40166368 PMCID: PMC11956143 DOI: 10.3892/ol.2025.14983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/28/2025] [Indexed: 04/02/2025] Open
Abstract
Patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) are often treated with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) combined with biliary stent placement for tumor progression. However, certain patients die within 30 days after the procedure, increasing healthcare resource consumption and patient burden. Therefore, the development of early mortality prediction models is important for optimizing treatment decisions. The present study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 285 patients with MBO, including demographic information, laboratory indicators and tumor-related factors. Logistic regression and artificial neural network (ANN) models were used to construct a prediction tool, and the model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The logistic regression model, which identified the cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and a history of previous ERCP surgery as independent risk factors, had an AUC of 0.727 and an accuracy of 65.0%. The ANN model, which combined five variables, namely CA19-9, history of previous ERCP surgery, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), liver metastasis and carcinoembryonic antigen, demonstrated that NLR was the most weighted predictor. Furthermore, the ANN model had an AUC of 0.813, an accuracy of 88.2% and a specificity that was markedly higher than that of the logistic regression model (95.5 vs. 83.3%). However, the ANN model was revealed to be slightly less sensitive compared with the logistic regression model (61.1 vs. 61.2%). In conclusion, compared with logistic regression, the ANN model had a greater performance level in terms of predictive power and specificity, and is suitable for capturing complex non-linear relationships. However, its complexity and risk of overfitting need to be further optimized. The present study provides a new tool for the accurate prediction of the risk of early death after ERCP in patients with MBO, which could help improve individualized treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongxin Ma
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Jiaojiao Qi
- Department of Obstetrics Function Center Inspection, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Xusheng Zhang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Kejun Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Yimin Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Xuehai Yu
- Department of Pediatric Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Yang Bu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
| | - Bendong Chen
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, First Clinical College of Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, P.R. China
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Luo X, Huang Z, Ali K, Hayat K. Evaluating safety and efficacy of plastic versus metal stenting in malignant hilar biliary obstruction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Postgrad Med J 2025; 101:447-457. [PMID: 39571584 DOI: 10.1093/postmj/qgae165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2024] [Accepted: 11/07/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stenting malignant hilar biliary obstruction (MHBO) is challenging due to its complex structure, and it is less effective than blockages in the distal bile duct area. Plastic stents (PSs) and metal stents (MSs) are commonly used for stenting MHBO. This study aims to compare the outcomes of PSs and MSs in MHBO patients. METHODS We conducted a search of medical databases up to March 2024. Using a fixed-effect model, we analyzed the risk ratios (RRs) of the outcomes between the PS and MS groups. We calculated the RR for clinical and technical success, reinterventions, and adverse events, as well as the hazard ratio (HR) for survival and stent patency. RESULTS This analysis includes five randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that met the inclusion criteria, comprising a total of 322 patients (156 in the PS group and 166 in the MS group). Significant differences (P < .05) in favor of the MS group were found in the reinterventions (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.07-3.04), and stent patency (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.90). There were no significant differences (P > 0.05) between the PS and MS groups regarding technical success (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.94-1.09), clinical success (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.69-1.07), overall survival (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.47-1.05), stent migration (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.08-6.02), stent occlusion (RR1.32, 95% CI 0.97-1.81), and adverse events (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.53-1.20). CONCLUSION Both PS and MS are effective for managing MHBO, while MS offers greater efficacy in increased stent patency and lower reintervention rates. Key message What is already known on this topic Metal stents (MSs) and plastic stents (PSs) are used for palliative treatment of malignant hilar biliary obstruction (MHBO). MSs significantly reduced the need for reinterventions compared to PSs in patients with MHBO. What this study adds There were no significant differences between MSs and PSs in terms of technical success, clinical success, overall survival, stent migration, stent occlusion, or adverse events. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy The study's findings may prompt researchers to design more targeted studies to further investigate these specific outcomes in MHBO patients. The results encourage endoscopists to consider patient-specific factors, such as life expectancy and preference for minimizing recurrent procedures, when choosing between MSs and PSs for MHBO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinjie Luo
- Department of surgery, Hangzhou First People's Hospital Tonglu Campus, 311500, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zhicheng Huang
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Hangzhou Geriatric Hospital, 50 Jingshen Road, 310022, Hangzhou, China
| | - Kamran Ali
- Department of Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
| | - Khizar Hayat
- Department of Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, 322000, China
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Zhang D, Shen T, Gao F, Sun Y, Dai Z, Luo H, Sun Y, Yang Z, Gu J. Endoscopic treatment of unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: beyond biliary drainage. Therap Adv Gastroenterol 2025; 18:17562848251328595. [PMID: 40292090 PMCID: PMC12033555 DOI: 10.1177/17562848251328595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2024] [Accepted: 02/27/2025] [Indexed: 04/30/2025] Open
Abstract
Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) is an aggressive biliary malignancy originating from the epithelial cells of the bile duct, typically located in the extrahepatic biliary tree, proximal to the cystic duct. PHCC often presents with a rapid onset of jaundice. While radical surgical resection remains the only curative treatment, only a minority of patients are eligible due to early metastasis and challenges associated with preoperative evaluations. Comprehensive treatments, including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy, are crucial for managing PHCC. However, in advanced stages, complications such as cholestatic liver injury, malnutrition, and biliary infections pose significant obstacles to these treatments. Therefore, biliary drainage (BD) is essential in the management of PHCC. In addition to external drainage methods like percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD), endoscopic biliary drainage (EBD), particularly endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), offer an effective option for internal drainage, which is more physiologically compatible and better tolerated. Furthermore, the integration of various endoscopic techniques has expanded the management of PHCC beyond mere drainage. Techniques such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA), photodynamic therapy (PDT), and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) based methods present new therapeutic avenues, albeit with variable results. This review aims to summarize current advancements and ongoing debates in the field of endoscopic treatment for unresectable PHCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Di Zhang
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, Liaoning, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Tianci Shen
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Feng Gao
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, Liaoning, China
| | - Yong Sun
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, Liaoning, China
| | - Zihao Dai
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, Liaoning, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Haifeng Luo
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, Liaoning, China
| | - Yanan Sun
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, Shenyang, Liaoning, China
| | - Zhuo Yang
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, No. 83, Wenhua Road, Shenhe District, Shenyang, Liaoning 110016, China
| | - Jiangning Gu
- Department of Endoscope, General Hospital of Northern Theater Command, No. 83, Wenhua Road, Shenhe District, Shenyang, Liaoning 110016, China
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Pietrzak J, Przybyłkowski A. Endoscopic Treatment of Malignant Hilar Biliary Obstruction. Cancers (Basel) 2023; 15:5819. [PMID: 38136363 PMCID: PMC10741735 DOI: 10.3390/cancers15245819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2023] [Revised: 12/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Stent implantation is an effective approach for palliative treatment of Bismuth-Corlette type III-IV malignant hilar biliary obstructions (MHBOs). In this article, we reviewed the currently used access methods for biliary stent placement (percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage, endoscopic biliary drainage, endosonography guided biliary drainage), the available stent types (plastic stent, self-expanding metallic stent, full cover self-expanding metallic stent, radioactive self-expanding metallic stent), major approaches (unilateral, bilateral) and deployment methods (stent-in-stent, stent-by-stent). Finally, this review gives an outlook on perspectives of development in stenting and other palliative methods in MHBO.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam Przybyłkowski
- Department of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland;
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