Modelling the Effect of the Interaction between Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Measures on COVID-19 Incidence

A systematic literature review on public health and healthcare resources for pandemic preparedness planning

BACKGROUND

Generating insights into resource demands during outbreaks is an important aspect of pandemic preparedness. The EU PANDEM-2 project used resource modelling to explore the demand profile for key resources during pandemic scenarios. This review aimed to identify public health and healthcare resources needed to respond to pandemic threats and the ranges of parameter values on the use of these resources for pandemic influenza (including the novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic) and the COVID-19 pandemic, to support modelling activities.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review and searched Embase and Medline databases (1995 - June 2023) for articles that included a model, scenario, or simulation of pandemic resources and/or describe resource parameters, for example personal protective equipment (PPE) usage, length of stay (LoS) in intensive care unit (ICU), or vaccine efficacy. Papers with data on resource parameters from all countries were included.

RESULTS

We identified 2754 articles of which 147 were included in the final review. Forty-six different resource parameters with values related to non-ICU beds (n = 43 articles), ICU beds (n = 57), mechanical ventilation (n = 39), healthcare workers (n = 12), pharmaceuticals (n = 21), PPE (n = 8), vaccines (n = 26), and testing and tracing (n = 19). Differences between resource types related to pandemic influenza and COVID-19 were observed, for example on mechanical ventilation (mostly for COVID-19) and testing & tracing (all for COVID-19).

CONCLUSION

This review provides an overview of public health and healthcare resources with associated parameters in the context of pandemic influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic. Providing insight into the ranges of plausible parameter values on the use of public health and healthcare resources improves the accuracy of results of modelling different scenarios, and thus decision-making by policy makers and hospital planners. This review also highlights a scarcity of published data on important public health resources.

Modeling the effects of vaccination, nucleic acid testing, and face mask wearing interventions against COVID-19 in large sports events

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 leads to devastating COVID-19 infections around the world, which has affected both human health and the development of industries dependent on social gatherings. Sports events are one of the subgroups facing great challenges. The uncertainty of COVID-19 transmission in large-scale sports events is a great barrier to decision-making with regard to reopening auditoriums. Policymakers and health experts are trying to figure out better policies to balance audience experiences and COVID-19 infection control. In this study, we employed the generalized SEIR model in conjunction with the Wells-Riley model to estimate the effects of vaccination, nucleic acid testing, and face mask wearing on audience infection control during the 2021 Chinese Football Association Super League from 20 April to 5 August. The generalized SEIR modeling showed that if the general population were vaccinated by inactive vaccines at an efficiency of 0.78, the total number of infectious people during this time period would decrease from 43,455 to 6,417. We assumed that the general population had the same odds ratio of entering the sports stadiums and becoming the audience. Their infection probabilities in the stadium were further estimated by the Wells-Riley model. The results showed that if all of the 30,000 seats in the stadium were filled by the audience, 371 audience members would have become infected during the 116 football games in the 2021 season. The independent use of vaccination and nucleic acid testing would have decreased this number to 79 and 118, respectively. The combined use of nucleic acid testing and vaccination or face mask wearing would have decreased this number to 14 and 34, respectively. The combined use of all three strategies could have further decreased this number to 0. According to the modeling results, policymakers can consider the combined use of vaccination, nucleic acid testing, and face mask wearing to protect audiences from infection when holding sports events, which could create a balance between audience experiences and COVID-19 infection control.