Recent progress in patent foramen ovale and related neurological diseases: A narrative review

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a common congenital cardiac abnormality when the opening of the interatrial septum is not closed in adulthood. This abnormality affects 25% of the general population. With the development of precision medicine, an increasing number of clinical studies have reported that PFO is closely related to various neurological diseases such as stroke, migraine, obstructive sleep apnea, and decompression syndrome. It has also been suggested that PFO closure could be effective for preventing and treating these neurological diseases. Therefore, increasing attention has been given to the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PFO-related neurological diseases. By reviewing existing literature, this article focuses on the pathogenesis, epidemiology, and clinical characteristics of PFO-related neurological diseases, as well as the prevention and treatment of different neurological diseases to discuss, and aims to provide current progress for this field and decision-making evidence for clinical practice.

Advanced interatrial block predicts recurrence of embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) is an independent risk factor for ischaemic stroke. This study aimed to analyse whether advanced IAB predicts recurrence of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

METHODS

104 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of ESUS were followed up for a median period of 15 months (interquartile range, 10-48). We recorded data on clinical variables, P-wave characteristics, and presence of IAB on the electrocardiogram. Electrocardiogram findings were interpreted by a blinded, centralised rater at (XXXX2). ESUS recurrence was the primary outcome variable.

RESULTS

Median age was 47 years (range, 19-85); 50% of patients were women. IAB was detected in 36 patients (34.6%); IAB was partial in 29 cases (27.9%) and advanced in 7 (6.7%). Sixteen patients (15.4%) presented stroke recurrence; of these, 5 had partial and 4 had advanced IAB (P = .01; odds ratio [OR] = 9.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.88-47.46; relative risk [RR] = 4.62; 95% CI, 2.01-10.61). Median P-wave duration was longer in patients with stroke recurrence (P = .009). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following independent risk factors for stroke recurrence: advanced IAB (P < .001; OR = 10.86; 95% CI, 3.07-38.46), male sex (P = .028; OR = 4.6; 95% CI, 1.18-17.96), and age older than 50 years (P = .039; OR = 3.84; 95% CI, 1.06-13.88). In the Cox proportional hazards model, the risk variables identified were age older than 50 years (P = .002; hazard ratio, 7.04; 95% CI, 2.06-23.8) and P-wave duration (per ms) (P = .007; hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced IAB and age older than 50 years predict ESUS recurrence.

Transcatheter Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale in Older Patients With Cryptogenic Thromboembolic Events

BACKGROUND

The main randomized trials evaluating patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure after a presumed PFO-associated stroke excluded patients older than 60 years. We aimed to evaluate the early- and long-term clinical outcomes of transcatheter PFO closure in older (>60 years) patients with a cryptogenic ischemic event.

METHODS

This is a multicenter study including consecutive patients older than 60 years (mean age, 67±5 years) who had a PFO closure following a presumed PFO-related ischemic event. Patients ≤60 years old (mean age, 44±10 years) served as the control group. The primary end point was the occurrence of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or peripheral embolism over the follow-up period. New-onset atrial fibrillation was a secondary end point.

RESULTS

A total of 388 and 883 patients >60 and ≤60 years old were included, respectively. Procedural success rate was high (99.9%), and procedural-related complications low (<2%) in both groups. After a median follow-up of 3 (1-8) years, older patients exhibited an incidence of stroke/transient ischemic attack/peripheral embolism of 1.6 events per 100 patient-years (stroke: 0.6 events per 100 patient-years), lower than that expected according to the risk of paradoxical embolism score (observed-to-expected ratio, 0.31 [95% CI, 0.11-0.91]). However, the event rate in older patients was higher than that observed in their younger counterparts (incidence rate ratio, 4.7 [95% CI, 2.36-9.8]). De novo atrial fibrillation after the procedure was more frequent in older patients (2.66 per 100 patient-years versus 0.49 per 100 patient-years, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients older than 60 years with a presumed PFO-related ischemic event, PFO closure was safe and associated with a relatively low incidence of recurrent ischemic events after a median follow-up of 3 years compared with historical cohorts of patients who did not undergo PFO closure. However, a higher risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events was observed in older patients compared to their younger counterparts. Randomized trials are warranted in this population.

Advanced interatrial block predicts recurrence of embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND

Advanced interatrial block (IAB) is an independent risk factor for ischaemic stroke. This study aimed to analyse whether advanced IAB predicts recurrence of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

METHODS

104 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of ESUS were followed up for a median period of 15 months (interquartile range, 10-48). We recorded data on clinical variables, P-wave characteristics, and presence of IAB on the electrocardiogram (ECG). ECG findings were interpreted by a blinded, centralised rater at (XXXX2). ESUS recurrence was the primary outcome variable.

RESULTS

Median age was 47 years (range, 19-85); 50% of patients were women. IAB was detected in 36 patients (34.6%); IAB was partial in 29 cases (27.9%) and advanced in 7 (6.7%). Sixteen patients (15.4%) presented stroke recurrence; of these, 5 had partial and 4 had advanced IAB (P = .01; odds ratio [OR] = 9.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.88-47.46; relative risk [RR] = 4.62; 95% CI, 2.01-10.61). Median P-wave duration was longer in patients with stroke recurrence (P = .009). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the following independent risk factors for stroke recurrence: advanced IAB (P < .001; OR = 10.86; 95% CI, 3.07-38.46), male sex (P = .028; OR = 4.6; 95% CI, 1.18-17.96), and age older than 50 years (P = .039; OR = 3.84; 95% CI, 1.06-13.88). In the Cox proportional hazards model, the risk variables identified were age older than 50 years (P = .002; hazard ratio, 7.04; 95% CI, 2.06-23.8) and P-wave duration (per ms) (P = .007; hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced IAB and age older than 50 years predict ESUS recurrence.

Patent Foramen Ovale Attributable Cryptogenic Embolism With Thrombophilia Has Higher Risk for Recurrence and Responds to Closure

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of management on the risk for recurrent events among patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack.

BACKGROUND

The combination of patent foramen ovale (PFO) and hypercoagulability may greatly increase the risk for paradoxical embolism. However, previous randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of PFO closure excluded these potential high-risk patients.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with PFO attributable cryptogenic embolism were prospectively, without randomization, recruited from January 2005 to March 2018. The relationship between thrombophilia and recurrent events was evaluated in overall patients. Multivariate Cox regression was conducted to assess the relative risk for recurrence in PFO closure and medical therapy groups.

RESULTS

A total of 591 patients with cryptogenic embolism with PFO were identified. The median duration of follow-up was 53 months, and thrombophilia significantly increased the risk for recurrent events (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 3.16; p = 0.024). PFO closure was superior to medical therapy in overall patients (HR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.30; p < 0.001). Of the 134 patients (22.7%) with thrombophilia, there was a difference in the risk for recurrence events between the PFO closure (6 of 89) and medical therapy (15 of 45) groups (HR: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.74; p = 0.012). There was no potential heterogeneity in the further subgroup analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cryptogenic stroke with PFO and hypercoagulable state had increased risk for recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack. PFO closure provided a lower risk for recurrent events compared with medical therapy alone.

Prognosis of Cryptogenic Stroke With Patent Foramen Ovale at Older Ages and Implications for Trials: A Population-Based Study and Systematic Review

Importance

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure may prevent recurrent stroke after cryptogenic transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke (TIA/stroke) in patients aged 60 years or younger. Patent foramen ovale is associated with cryptogenic stroke in the older population, but risk of recurrence is unknown. Data on prognosis of patients receiving medical treatment at older ages (≥60 years) are essential to justify trials of PFO closure.

Objective

To examine the age-specific risk of recurrence in patients with cryptogenic TIA/stroke with PFO.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A prospective study was nested in the population-based Oxford Vascular Study between September 1, 2014, and March 31, 2019, with face-to-face follow-up for 5 years. A total of 416 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of cryptogenic TIA or nondisabling stroke, screened for PFO at a rapid-access TIA/stroke clinic, were included. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies reporting on ischemic stroke recurrence after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients with PFO who were receiving medical therapy alone, or with PFO vs no-PFO was conducted. Sample size calculation for future trials on PFO closure was performed for patients aged 60 years or older.

Exposures

Patent foramen ovale and age as modifiers of risk of recurrent stroke after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients receiving only medical therapy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Risk of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic TIA/stroke and PFO receiving medical therapy only, and in patients with vs without PFO, stratified by age (<65 vs ≥65 years), as well as sample-size calculation for future trials of PFO closure in patients aged 60 years or older.

Results

Among the 153 Oxford Vascular Study patients with PFO (mean [SD] age, 66.7 [13.7] years; 80 [52.3%] men), recurrent ischemic stroke risk (2.05 per 100 patient-years) was similar to the pooled estimate from a systematic review of 23 other studies (9 trials and 14 observational studies) (2.00 per 100 patient-years; 95% CI, 1.55-2.58). However, there was heterogeneity between studies (P < .001 for heterogeneity), owing mainly to risk increasing with mean cohort age (meta-regression: R2 = 0.31; P = .003). In the pooled analysis of 4 studies including patients with or without PFO, increased risk of stroke recurrence with PFO was seen only at age 65 years or older (odds ratio, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.4-4.2; P = .001 for difference; P = .39 for heterogeneity). The pooled ischemic stroke risk was 3.27 per 100 patient-years (95% CI, 2.59-4.13) in 4 cohorts with mean age 60 years or older. Assuming the more conservative 2.0 per 100 patient-years ischemic stroke risk in the PFO nonclosure arms of future trials in patients aged 60 years or older, projected sample sizes were 1080 per arm for 80% power to detect a 33% relative risk reduction.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that age is a determinant of risk of ischemic stroke after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients with PFO, such that trials of PFO closure at older ages are justified; however, projected sample sizes are large.

Patent foramen ovale and stroke: current evidence and treatment options

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Recent data have changed the landscape of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure for secondary stroke prevention. This review synthesizes the data and provides a framework for optimal management of stroke patients with PFO.

RECENT FINDINGS

The cumulative evidence indicates that PFO closure reduces the risk of recurrent stroke in carefully selected young cryptogenic stroke patients, with an annualized risk reduction of ∼0.6%. The benefit of PFO closure is particularly evident in patients with embolic appearing strokes, large right-to-left shunt, or an associated atrial septal aneurysm. There may be little or no benefit in patients with small deep infarcts, a small PFO, or an indication for long-term anticoagulation. Closure is accompanied by a small risk of major procedural complication and atrial fibrillation.

SUMMARY

The annual risk of stroke from PFO is low relative to other stroke mechanisms, but the life-time cumulative risk in young patients who have experienced a prior stroke may be substantial, in which case the absolute benefit of closure is likely impactful. PFO is highly prevalent in the general population, present in about one in four adults, and should not be considered to be the cause of the stroke until a thorough workup has excluded alternative mechanisms.

Comparison of antithrombotic strategies in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an updated meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) and cryptogenic ischemic stroke (CS) are at risk for stroke recurrence. The optimal antithrombotic strategy in patients who undergo medical management is still debated.

METHODS

We systematically searched the literature for studies that reported on cerebrovascular event recurrences and/or death in patients with PFO treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) or antiplatelet therapy (APT) for secondary prevention of CS. The efficacy endpoints were stroke recurrence and the composite of stroke, transient ischemic attack or all-cause death. Major bleedings represented the safety endpoint.

RESULTS

A total of 16 studies with 3953 patients (OAC = 1527, APT = 2426) were included. Weighted mean follow-up was 2.9 years. OAC was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of stroke compared with APT (RR 0.65; 95% CI 0.44-0.95; ARR 2%, NNT 49), while no difference was found regarding the composite outcome (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.57-1.07) and the safety outcome (RR 1.57; 95% CI 0.85-2.90; p = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

OAC was more effective than APT in reducing the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with PFO and CS, without a significant increase in the risk of major bleedings. Our findings support the need for further randomized data focused on the comparison of antithrombotic strategies in this setting.

Epidemiology of Patent Foramen Ovale in General Population and in Stroke Patients: A Narrative Review

Introduction: Percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) in selected patients with cryptogenic cerebrovascular ischemic events (CEs) decreases the risk of recurrent stroke; however, optimal patient selection criteria are still under investigation. Candidates for PFO closure are usually selected from the pool of CE patients with a high risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score. The RoPE score calculates the probability that PFO is causally related to stroke, based on PFO prevalence in patients with CE compared with that in healthy subjects. The latter has been set at 25% based on the average of autopsy and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) studies.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive review of studies investigating PFO prevalence in general population and in patients with CE and non-CE using autopsy, TEE, transcranial Doppler (TCD) or transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Studies were excluded if they (1) reported data from referred subjects with underlying cerebrovascular disease or (2) did not specify etiologically the events.

Results: In healthy/control subjects, PFO prevalence was 24.2% (1,872/7,747) in autopsy studies, 23.7% (325/1,369) in TEE, 31.3% (111/355) in TCD, and 14.7% (186/1,267) in TTE studies. All diagnostic modalities included PFO prevalence was higher in CE compared with healthy/control population [odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5–3.8] and compared with non-CE (OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 2.0–2.6). In patients with CE, PFO prevalence in the young compared to the old was higher when the diagnostic modality was TEE (48.9 vs. 27.3%, p < 0.0001, OR = 2.6 with 95% CI = 2.0–3.3) or TCD (58.1 vs. 41%, OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.6–2.5), but not TTE (53.3 vs. 37.5%, p = 0.16). Regarding non-CE, PFO prevalence in the young compared to the old was higher when the diagnostic modality was TEE (20 vs. 12.9%, OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.0–2.8) but not TTE (10.4 vs. 7.8%, p = 0.75) or TCD (22.8 vs. 20.1%, p = 0.56).

Conclusions: Given the limitations of autopsy and TEE studies, there is good reason not to take a fixed 25% PFO prevalence for granted. The estimation of degree of causality may be underestimated or overestimated in populations with PFO prevalence significantly lower or higher than the established. Given the high sensitivity, non-invasive nature, low cost, and repeatability of TCD, future large-scale TCD-based studies should investigate potential heterogeneity in PFO prevalence in different healthy racial/ethnic populations.

Patent foramen ovale closure for patients with cryptogenic stroke: A systematic review and comprehensive meta-analysis of 5 randomized controlled trials and 14 observational studies

BACKGROUND

Previous review from randomized controlled trials (RCT) showed that patients with cryptogenic stroke may benefit from patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure. However, the findings from the systematic review were not clear when observational studies were also included.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases. The primary endpoints were recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). The secondary outcomes were all-cause death, atrial fibrillation (AF), and hemorrhagic events.

RESULTS

Five randomized trials and fourteen observational studies (6301 participants) were eligible. PFO closure was superior to medical therapy for stroke prevention risk ratios ([RR], 0.38; 95% CI, 0.24-0.60), but showed increased risk of AF (RR, 4.96; 95% CI, 2.31-10.7). There was no significant difference in TIA recurrence, death, and hemorrhagic events. Subgroup analyses showed that patients with factors such as substantial residual shunt, the presence of atrial septal aneurysm (ASA), male, and age <45 years had a lower risk of recurrent stroke when PFOs were closed.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cryptogenic stroke, PFO closure does appeared to be superior to medical therapy in stroke prevention, with an increased incidence of AF. Male, age <45 years, substantial residual shunt, and the history of ASA are the factors that will predict the benefit when PFO is closed.

Endocardial Device Leads in Patients with Patent Foramen Ovale: Echocardiographic Correlates of Stroke/TIA and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Echocardiographically detected patent foramen ovale (PFO) has been associated with stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). We sought to evaluate the relationship between echocardiographic characteristics and risk of stroke/TIA and mortality in CIED patients with PFO.

METHODS

In 6,086 device patients, PFO was detected in 319 patients. A baseline echocardiogram was present in 250 patients, with 186 having a follow-up echocardiogram.

RESULTS

Of 250 patients with a baseline echocardiogram, 9.6% (n = 24) had a stroke/TIA during mean follow-up of 5.3 ± 3.1 years; and 42% (n = 105) died over 7.1 ± 3.7 years. Atrial septal aneurysm, prominent Eustachian valve, visible shunting across PFO, baseline or change in estimated right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP)/tricuspid regurgitation (TR), or maximum RVSP were not associated with postimplant stroke/TIA (P > 0.05). An exploratory multivariate analysis using time-dependent Cox models showed increased hazard of death in patients with increase in TR ≥2 grades (hazard ratio [HR] 1.780, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.447-2.189, P < 0.0001), or increase in RVSP by >10 mm Hg (HR 2.018, 95% CI 1.593-2.556, P < 0.0001), or maximum RVSP in follow-up (HR 1.432, 95% CI 1.351-1.516, P < 0.0001). A significant increase (P < 0.001) in TR was also noted during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CIED and PFO, structural and hemodynamic echocardiographic markers did not predict future stroke/TIA. However, a significantly higher TR or RVSP was associated with higher mortality.

Patent Foramen Ovale and Cryptogenic Strokes in the Stroke in Young Fabry Patients Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A patent foramen ovale (PFO) is disproportionately prevalent in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Without alternative explanations, it is frequently considered to be causative. A detailed stratification of these patients may improve the identification of incidental PFO.

METHODS

We investigated the PFO prevalence in 3497 transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke patients aged 18 to 55 years in the prospective multicenter SIFAP1 study (Stroke in Young Fabry Patients 1) using the ASCO classification. Patients without an obvious cause for transient ischemic attack/stroke (ASCO 0) were divided into subgroups with and without vascular risk factors (ASCO 0+ and 0-). In addition, we looked for PFO-related magnetic resonance imaging lesion patterns.

RESULTS

PFO was identified in 25% of patients. Twenty percent of patients with a definite or probable cause of transient ischemic attack/stroke (≥1 grade 1 or 2 ASCO criterion; n=1769) had a PFO compared with 29% of cryptogenic stroke patients (ASCO 0 and 3; n=1728; P<0,001); subdivision of cryptogenic strokes revealed a PFO in 24% of 978 ASCO 3 patients (n.s. versus ASCO 1 and 2) and a higher prevalence of 36% in 750 ASCO 0 cases (P<0.001 versus ASCO 3 and versus ASCO 1 and 2). PFO was more commonly observed in ASCO 0- (n=271) than in ASCO 0+ patients (n=479; 48 versus 29%; P<0.001). There was no PFO-associated magnetic resonance imaging lesion pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

Cryptogenic stroke patients demonstrate a heterogeneous PFO prevalence. Even in case of less conclusive diseases like nonstenotic arteriosclerosis, patients should preferentially be considered to have a non-PFO-mediated stroke.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583.

Sleep apnea syndrome and patent foramen ovale: a dangerous association in ischemic stroke?

BACKGROUND

The coexistence of patent foramen ovale (PFO) and sleep apnea syndrome (SAS) might be related to the pathogenesis of cryptogenic stroke (CS). We aimed to determine the prevalence of SAS in patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO.

METHODS

This is a prospective case-control study in which we included ischemic stroke patients consecutively admitted to our hospital's Acute Stroke Unit. Contrast transcranial Doppler (c-TCD) and sleep polygraphy within the first 72 h after stroke onset were performed to detect PFO and SAS. Demographic and clinical characteristics, time of stroke onset, score in the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and stroke subtype were registered.

RESULTS

A total of 97 patients were studied. Overall, 76% were men, with a mean ± SD age of 61 ± 13 years, and an NIHSS of 5 ± 5. Subtype of stroke was cryptogenic (CS) in 28 (29%) and non-CS in 69 (71%) of patients. PFO was more frequent among patients with CS (64% vs 29%, p = 0.002) and without SAS (60% vs 32%, p = 0.013). SAS was diagnosed in 74% of the whole group, with a higher prevalence in patients with known stroke etiology (83% vs 53%, p = 0.003). Finally, the prevalence of SAS and PFO coexistence was similar in patients with or without cryptogenic stroke (25% vs 22%, p = 1), and when comparing the group of patients with cryptogenic wake-up stroke to the other stroke patients (43% vs 21%, p = 0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

According to our results, there is no evidence of an association of PFO and SAS in the pathogenesis of cryptogenic stroke.

Stroke of undetermined cause: workup and secondary prevention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to update the reader on current concepts of workup and secondary prevention in patients with stroke of undetermined cause.

RECENT FINDINGS

Clinical research in patients with cryptogenic stroke has been hampered by the lack of standardized, widely accepted diagnostic criteria. The new definition of 'Embolic stroke of undetermined etiology' postulates an embolic mechanism of ischemic stroke. It is based on the exclusion of lacunar infarction by brain imaging, arterial stenosis more than 50% or dissection of the respective brain-supplying artery by computed tomography/magnetic resonance-angiography or ultrasound, atrial fibrillation by at least 24 h EKG monitoring, as well as some rare etiologies such as vasculitis, drug abuse, or coagulopathies. However, it still comprises many patients with atherosclerotic etiologies (but <50% stenosis) as well as covert paroxysmal atrial fibrillation which can be detected by repeated Holter EKG or an implantable device. A patent foramen ovale can be found in up to 58% of cryptogenic stroke patients, but causality in an individual patient remains uncertain and can only be statistically inferred.

SUMMARY

The new concept of embolic stroke of undetermined etiology enabled three ongoing randomized controlled trials which investigate oral anticoagulation versus aspirin for secondary stroke prevention.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis

AIMS

The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups.

CONCLUSION

We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

Closure versus medical therapy for preventing recurrent stroke in patients with patent foramen ovale and a history of cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack

BACKGROUND

The optimal therapy for preventing recurrent stroke in people with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale (PFO) has not been defined. The choice between medical therapy (antithrombotic treatment with antiplatelet agents or anticoagulants) and transcatheter device closure has been the subject of intense debate over the past several years. Despite the lack of scientific evidence, a substantial number of people undergo transcatheter device closure (TDC) for secondary stroke prevention.

OBJECTIVES

To: 1) compare the safety and efficacy of TDC with best medical therapy alone for preventing recurrent stroke (fatal or non-fatal) or transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) in people with PFO and a history of cryptogenic stroke or TIA; 2) identify specific subgroups of people most likely to benefit from closure for secondary prevention; and 3) assess the cost-effectiveness of this strategy, if possible.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (July 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library Issue 2, 2014), MEDLINE (1950 to July 2014) and EMBASE (1980 to July 2014). In an effort to identify unpublished and ongoing trials we searched seven trials registers and checked reference lists.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), irrespective of blinding, publication status, and language, comparing the safety and efficacy of device closure with medical therapy for preventing recurrent stroke or TIA in people with PFO and a history of cryptogenic stroke or TIA.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed quality and risk of bias, and extracted data. The primary outcome measures of this analysis were the composite endpoint of ischemic stroke or TIA events as well as recurrent fatal or non-fatal ischemic stroke. Secondary endpoints included all-cause mortality, serious adverse events (atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, bleeding) and procedural success and effective closure. We used the Mantel-Haenszel method to obtain pooled risk ratios (RRs) using the random-effects model regardless of the level of heterogeneity. We pooled data for the primary outcome measure with the generic inverse variance method using the random-effects model, yielding risk estimates as pooled hazard ratio (HR), which accounts for time-to-event outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three RCTs involving a total of 2303 participants: 1150 participants were randomized to receive TDC and 1153 participants were randomized to receive medical therapy. Overall, the risk of bias was regarded as high. The mean follow-up period of all three included trials was less than five years. Baseline characteristics (age, sex, and vascular risk factors) were similar across trials. Intention-to-treat analyses did not show a statistically significant risk reduction in the composite endpoint of recurrent stroke or TIA in the TDC group when compared with medical therapy (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.17). A time-to-event analysis combining the results of two RCTs also failed to show a significant risk reduction with TDC (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.13). When assessing stroke prevention alone, TDC still did not show a statistically significant benefit (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.27) (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.26 to 1.18). In a sensitivity analysis including the two studies using the Amplatzer PFO occluder, TDC showed a possible protective effect on recurrent stroke compared with medical therapy (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.14 to 1.02); however, it did not reach statistical significance. Safety analysis found that the overall risks for all-cause mortality and adverse events were similar in both the TDC and medical therapy groups. However, TDC increased the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (RR 3.50, 95% CI 1.47 to 8.35) and may be associated with the type of device used.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The combined data from recent RCTs have shown no statistically significant differences between TDC and medical therapy in the prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke. TDC closure was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation but not with serious adverse events.

Prevalence of Patent Foramen Ovale in Ischaemic Stroke in Italy: Results of SISIFO Study

BACKGROUND

Although several authors have studied the association between patent foramen ovale (PFO) and ischaemic stroke, the matter is still controversial; few have suggested an association between cryptogenetic stroke and PFO, while others have denied this association. The aim of this study was to evaluate PFO prevalence in the whole ischaemic stroke population, independently from age and stroke subtypes and to identify the characteristics associated with the presence of PFO.

METHODS

SISIFO study was a multicenter, prospective, single-wave, cross-sectional survey conducted on consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to selected clinical centres. Data regarding vascular risk factors were registered for each patient; all patients underwent computed tomography scan and/or magnetic resonance imaging of the brain; an electrocardiogram and standard laboratory blood tests were performed. A Doppler ultrasound study of extra-cranial arteries was performed too. The cases were classified according to TOAST and OCSP criteria. Each patient underwent transcranial Doppler or transcranial color-coded duplex sonography with bubble test as diagnostic tool for right-to-left-shunt. Where right-to-left shunt was detected, PFO presence was confirmed by echocardiography.

FINDINGS

1,130 consecutive patients were included. We found a PFO in 247 (21.9%; 95% CI, 19.5-24.3%) patients; PFO was present in 23.5% of patients with cryptogenic stroke and in 21.3% of patients with stroke of known causes; this difference was not statistically significant. At the univariate analysis, decreasing age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and atrial fibrillation, and stroke characteristics such as NIHSS, OCSP and TOAST were predictors of PFO presence. At the multivariate analysis, we found a significant interaction between age and OCSP syndrome. Being LACI the reference category, the prevalence of PFO in PACI and POCI decreased significantly along with age, whereas there was no change in TACI.

CONCLUSION

If any relationship exists between stroke and PFO, this is more likely in PACI and POCI at a younger age. Our results are consistent with recent findings that underline PFO alone must not be considered a significant independent predictor for stroke; so the presence of PFO alone doesn't permit rushed causal correlations or 'therapeutic aggressiveness'.

Prevalence of patent foramen ovale in ischemic stroke in Italy: the SISIFO study

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a common congenital anatomical defect in the general population with a mean prevalence of 20 %. Transcranial Doppler sonography and echocardiography, both with infusion of agitated saline as an echo contrast, have been introduced for the diagnosis of PFO. Transesophageal echocardiography is considered the gold standard. Several studies have suggested an association between cryptogenetic stroke and PFO, but the role of this condition as a risk factor for stroke is still debated. The aims of this prospective multicentre study are the evaluation of PFO prevalence in the whole ischemic stroke population and the identification of a stroke recurrence profile risk in patients with PFO. All consecutive patients admitted for acute ischemic stroke and with a confirmed diagnosis at discharge are eligible cases for the study. Demographic and vascular risk factors are registered. Clinical severity is summarized by the National Institute of Health stroke scale. Echocardiographic and transcranial studies are performed in each patient to detect the presence of PFO. Prevalence of PFO will be calculated with 95 % CIs. Univariate analysis will be performed to detect the correlation of PFO with different registered factors and multivariable analysis with PFO as independent variable. The present study should contribute to better identify the role of PFO in ischemic stroke risk and recurrence-related events. Qualifying findings of the study are represented by the high number of enrolled patients, the prospective methodology of the study and the presence of secondary instrumental endpoints.

Embolic strokes of undetermined source: the case for a new clinical construct

Cryptogenic (of unknown cause) ischaemic strokes are now thought to comprise about 25% of all ischaemic strokes. Advances in imaging techniques and improved understanding of stroke pathophysiology have prompted a reassessment of cryptogenic stroke. There is persuasive evidence that most cryptogenic strokes are thromboembolic. The thrombus is thought to originate from any of several well established potential embolic sources, including minor-risk or covert cardiac sources, veins via paradoxical embolism, and non-occlusive atherosclerotic plaques in the aortic arch, cervical, or cerebral arteries. Accordingly, we propose that embolic strokes of undetermined source are a therapeutically relevant entity, which are defined as a non-lacunar brain infarct without proximal arterial stenosis or cardioembolic sources, with a clear indication for anticoagulation. Because emboli consist mainly of thrombus, anticoagulants are likely to reduce recurrent brain ischaemia more effectively than are antiplatelet drugs. Randomised trials testing direct-acting oral anticoagulants for secondary prevention of embolic strokes of undetermined source are warranted.

Seven-year follow-up of percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale

Background

Observational studies favor percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) over medical treatment to reduce recurrent stroke while randomized trials fail to demonstrate significant superiority of percutaneous PFO closure. Few long-term studies are available post PFO closure. This study reports long-term clinical outcomes after percutaneous PFO closure.

Methods

Between 1997 and 2006, 86 consecutive eligible patients with cerebrovascular events, presumably related to PFO, underwent percutaneous PFO closure. All 86 patients were invited to a long-term follow-up, which was carried out during 2011 and 2012.

Results

Percutaneous PFO closure was successfully performed in 85 of 86 patients. The follow-up rate was 100%. No cardiovascular or cerebrovascular deaths occurred. Two patients (both women) died from lung cancer during follow-up. Follow-up visits were conducted for 64 patients and the remaining 20 patients were followed up by phone. The mean follow-up time was 7.3 years (5 to 12.4 years). Mean age at PFO closure was 49 years. One patient had a minor stroke one month after PFO closure and a transient ischemic attack (TIA) two years afterwards. One other patient suffered from a TIA six years after closure. No long-term device-related complications were observed.

Conclusions

Percutaneous PFO closure was associated with very low risk of recurrent stroke and is suitable in most patients. We observed no mortality and no long-term device-related complications related to PFO closure, indicating that percutaneous PFO closure is a safe and efficient treatment even in the long term.

Transesophageal echocardiography in cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: analysis of putative high-risk features from the risk of paradoxical embolism database

BACKGROUND

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with cryptogenic stroke (CS), although the pathogenicity of a discovered PFO in the setting of CS is typically unclear. Transesophageal echocardiography features such as PFO size, associated hypermobile septum, and presence of a right-to-left shunt at rest have all been proposed as markers of risk. The association of these transesophageal echocardiography features with other markers of pathogenicity has not been examined.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a recently derived score based on clinical and neuroimaging features to stratify patients with PFO and CS by the probability that their stroke is PFO-attributable. We examined whether high-risk transesophageal echocardiography features are seen more frequently in patients more likely to have had a PFO-attributable stroke (n=637) compared with those less likely to have a PFO-attributable stroke (n=657). Large physiologic shunt size was not more frequently seen among those with probable PFO-attributable strokes (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; P=0.53). The presence of neither a hypermobile septum nor a right-to-left shunt at rest was detected more often in those with a probable PFO-attributable stroke (OR, 0.80; P=0.45; OR, 1.15; P=0.11, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that the proposed transesophageal echocardiography risk markers of large PFO size, hypermobile septum, and presence of right-to-left shunt at rest are associated with clinical features suggesting that a CS is PFO-attributable. Additional tools to describe PFOs may be useful in helping to determine whether an observed PFO is incidental or pathogenically related to CS.

Multidisciplinary management of patent foramen ovale (PFO) and cryptogenic stroke/TIA

PURPOSE

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) has been implicated as a risk factor for cryptogenic ischemic stroke (CS). However, there is still a lack of widely accepted, undisputed indications for PFO closure. The present study describes the concept of the multidisciplinary PFO conference and a decision making process for closure versus no closure that was developed into a formalized clinical algorithm, and presents the results of implementing these, in terms of number and proportion of PFO closures as well as repeat referrals.

DESIGN

Five specialists in neurology, cardiology, internal medicine, thromboembolism, and echocardiography evaluated the clinical data of 311 patients at PFO conferences during 2006 to 2009. The main criteria for closure were patients with first-ever CS with PFO and atrial septal aneurysm, or patients with recurrent CS and PFO without atrial septal aneurysm.

RESULTS

A total of 143 patients (46%) were accepted for closure and 167 patients were rejected. Patients accepted for closure were younger (mean 50 years versus 58 years) (P < 0.001). The acceptance rate for PFO closure was similar throughout these years, with an average of 45%. Three of 167 patients (1.8%) initially rejected for PFO closure were re-referred due to recurrent stroke, and the PFO closure was subsequently performed.

CONCLUSION

The acceptance rate of less than 50% in the present study underscores the complex relationship between CS and PFO. Whatever the criteria used for PFO closure, any unit caring for these patients needs to have a rigorous process to avoid overtreatment as well as undertreatment and to ensure that personal preferences and economic incentives do not steer the selection process. Our algorithm provides a stable acceptance rate and a low rate of repeat referrals.

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO.

METHODS

Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates.

RESULTS

Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest.

CONCLUSION

Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

Meta-analysis of transcatheter closure versus medical therapy for patent foramen ovale in prevention of recurrent neurological events after presumed paradoxical embolism

OBJECTIVES

In this study, a meta-analysis of observational studies was performed to compare the rate of recurrent neurological events (RNE) between transcatheter closure and medical management of patients with cryptogenic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) and concomitant patent foramen ovale (PFO).

BACKGROUND

A significant controversy surrounds the optimal strategy for treatment of cryptogenic stroke/TIA and coexistent PFO.

METHODS

We conducted a MEDLINE search with standard search terms to determine eligible studies.

RESULTS

Adjusted incidence rates of RNE were 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.5 to 1.1) events and 5.0 (95% CI: 3.6 to 6.9) events/100 person-years (PY) in the transcatheter closure and medical management arms, respectively. Meta-analysis of the limited number of comparative studies and meta-regression analysis suggested that the transcatheter closure might be superior to the medical therapy in prevention of RNE after cryptogenic stroke. Comparison of the anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy subgroups of the medical arm yielded a significantly lower risk of RNE within patients treated with anticoagulants. Device-related complications were encountered at the rate of 4.1 (95% CI: 3.2 to 5.0) events/100 PY, with atrial arrhythmias being the most frequent complication. After transcatheter closure, RNE did not seem to be related to the pre-treatment shunt size or the presence of residual shunting in the follow-up period. Significant benefit of transcatheter PFO closure was apparent in elderly patients, patients with concomitant atrial septal aneurysm, and patients with thrombophilia.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of RNE with transcatheter closure and medical therapy in patients presenting with cryptogenic stroke or TIA were estimated at 0.8 and 5.0 events/100 PY. Further randomized controlled trials are needed to conclusively compare these 2 management strategies.

The risk of paradoxical embolism (RoPE) study: initial description of the completed database

BACKGROUND

Detecting a benefit from closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with cryptogenic stroke is hampered by low rates of stroke recurrence and uncertainty about the causal role of patent foramen ovale in the index event. A method to predict patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk is needed. However, individual databases generally have too few stroke recurrences to support risk modeling. Prior studies of this population have been limited by low statistical power for examining factors related to recurrence.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to develop a database to support modeling of patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk by combining extant data sets.

METHODS

We identified investigators with extant databases including subjects with cryptogenic stroke investigated for patent foramen ovale, determined the availability and characteristics of data in each database, collaboratively specified the variables to be included in the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database, harmonized the variables across databases, and collected new primary data when necessary and feasible.

RESULTS

The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database has individual clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic data from 12 component databases, including subjects with cryptogenic stroke both with (n = 1925) and without (n = 1749) patent foramen ovale. In the patent foramen ovale subjects, a total of 381 outcomes (stroke, transient ischemic attack, death) occurred (median follow-up 2·2 years). While there were substantial variations in data collection between studies, there was sufficient overlap to define a common set of variables suitable for risk modeling.

CONCLUSION

While individual studies are inadequate for modeling patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk, collaboration between investigators has yielded a database with sufficient power to identify those patients at highest risk for a patent foramen ovale-related stroke recurrence who may have the greatest potential benefit from patent foramen ovale closure.

Patent foramen ovale closure and medical treatments for secondary stroke prevention: a systematic review of observational and randomized evidence

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Patients discovered to have a patent foramen ovale in the setting of a cryptogenic stroke may be treated with percutaneous closure, antiplatelet therapy, or anticoagulants. A recent randomized trial (CLOSURE I) did not detect any benefit of closure over medical treatment alone; the optimal medical therapy is also unknown. We synthesized the available evidence on secondary stroke prevention in patients with patent foramen ovale and cryptogenic stroke.

METHODS

A MEDLINE search was performed for finding longitudinal studies investigating medical treatment or closure, meta-analysis of incidence rates (IR), and IR ratios of recurrent cerebrovascular events.

RESULTS

Fifty-two single-arm studies and 7 comparative nonrandomized studies and the CLOSURE I trial were reviewed. The summary IR of recurrent stroke was 0.36 events (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.56) per 100 person-years with closure versus 2.53 events (95% CI, 1.91-3.35) per 100 person-years with medical therapy. In comparative observational studies, closure was superior to medical therapy (IR ratio=0.19; 95% CI, 0.07-0.54). The IR for the closure arm of the CLOSURE I trial was higher than the summary estimate from observational studies; there was no significant benefit of closure over medical treatment (P=0.002 comparing efficacy estimates between observational studies and the trial). Observational and randomized data (9 studies) comparing medical therapies were consistent and suggested that anticoagulants are superior to antiplatelets for preventing stroke recurrence (IR ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.18-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Although further randomized trial data are needed to precisely determine the effects of closure on stroke recurrence, the results of CLOSURE I challenge the credibility of a substantial body of observational evidence strongly favoring mechanical closure over medical therapy.

Long-Term Risk of Recurrent Stroke in Young Cryptogenic Stroke Patients with and without Patent Foramen Ovale

Background

Among patients with a patent foramen ovale and cryptogenic ischemic stroke, the long-term prognosis is unclear.

Aims

This study aims to estimate the recurrence rate in young cryptogenic stroke patients with and without patent foramen ovale.

Patients and methods

One hundred eighty-six cryptogenic stroke patients (aged 18–45 years) were prospectively followed for up to five-years. They were divided into two groups according to the echocardiographic presence of patent foramen ovale. All patients received aspirin (100mg/day) for secondary prevention.

Results

Mean age was 32·3 (standard deviation 7·9) years. During the mean follow-up of 66 months five patients with patent foramen ovale had recurrent strokes compared with 11 patients without patent foramen ovale. The average annual rate of recurrent cerebral ischemia was 1·1% and 1·6% for patients with and without patent foramen ovale, respectively. The recurrence rate did not increase with the presence of patent foramen ovale, atrial septal aneurysm or other variables. More than 60% of the reported cases achieved a good functional outcome.

Conclusions

Young patients with cryptogenic ischemic stroke with and without patent foramen ovale have a low recurrence rate in a long-term follow-up and most present a favorable outcome. Patent foramen ovale with or without atrial septal aneurysm did not increase the risk of recurrence.

The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study: developing risk models for application to ongoing randomized trials of percutaneous patent foramen ovale closure for cryptogenic stroke

BACKGROUND

Despite the diffusion into practice of percutaneous closure of a patent foramen ovale (PFO) in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS), the benefits have not been demonstrated, and remain unclear. For any individual presenting with a PFO in the setting of CS, it is not clear whether the PFO is pathogenically-related to the index event or an incidental finding. Further, the overall rate of stroke recurrence is low in patients with CS and PFO. How patient-specific factors affect the likelihood that a discovered PFO is related to an index stroke or affect the risk of recurrence is not well understood. These probabilities are likely to be important determinants of the benefits of PFO closure in CS.

DESIGN/METHODS

The goal of the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study is to develop and test a set of predictive models that can identify those patients most likely to benefit from preventive treatments for PFO-related stroke recurrence, such as PFO closure. To do this, we will construct a database of patients with CS, both with and without PFO, by combining existing cohort studies. We will use this pooled database to identify patient characteristics associated with the presence (versus the absence) of a PFO, and to use this "PFO propensity" to estimate the patient-specific probability that a PFO was pathogenically related to the index stroke (Model #1). We will also develop, among patients with both a CS and a PFO, a predictive model to estimate patient-specific stroke recurrence risk based on clinical, radiographic and echocardiographic characteristics. (Model #2). We will then combine Models #1 and #2 into a composite index that can rank patients with CS and PFO by their conditional probability that their PFO was pathogenically related to the index stroke and the risk of stroke recurrence. Finally, we will apply this composite index to completed clinical trials (currently on-going) testing endovascular PFO closure against medical therapy, to stratify patients from low-expected-benefit to high-expected-benefit.

Is patent foramen ovale a modifiable risk factor for stroke recurrence?

Although the prevalence of a patent foramen ovale (PFO) in the general population is ≈25%, it is approximately doubled among cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients. This has generally been attributed to paradoxical embolism, and many physicians recommend PFO closure to prevent recurrence. However, the benefit of PFO closure in patients with stroke has not been demonstrated. Furthermore, the epidemiology of stroke recurrence in patients with CS with PFO versus without PFO and in those with large right-to-left shunts versus small right-to-left shunts has yielded results that appear difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that paradoxical embolism is an important cause of stroke recurrence. The purpose of this review is to critically examine the epidemiologic evidence that PFO is a potentially modifiable risk factor for stroke recurrence in patients with CS. The evidence suggests that many patients with CS and PFO have strokes that are PFO attributable, but many have strokes that are unrelated to their PFO. We introduce the concept of "PFO propensity," defined as the patient-specific probability of finding a PFO in a patient with CS on the basis of age and other risk factors. We show that this value is directly related to the probability that CS is PFO attributable. Because there is substantial heterogeneity in both PFO propensity and recurrence risk among patients with PFO and CS, stratification for PFO closure by these joint probabilities will likely prove crucial for appropriate patient selection.