Diagnostic accuracy of interleukin-6 as a biomarker for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas with varying severity. The mortality rate varies from 20% to 40% among severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine that involves various infections, inflammations, and systemic disorders. Injury to acinar cells leads to necrosis, releasing proinflammatory cytokines, including IL-6, which peaks earlier. The lack of extensive data regarding the association of IL-6 with AP influences us to do this meta-analysis for early detection and treatment of AP to prevent multiorgan failure.

Methods

We searched the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar databases for relevant articles published from inception to June 2024. We examined the positive and negative likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios, and pooled sensitivity and specificity. We used the QUADAS-2 tool to evaluate the risk of bias.

Results

This meta-analysis included 13 studies involving 1386 patients with AP, of which 343 had SAP and 1043 had mild and moderately severe AP. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.5 (95% CI 2.6 to 4.5) and 0.25 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.40). The diagnostic odds ratio of IL-6 to diagnose SAP is 14 (95% CI: 7 to 27), and the summary receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.85 (95% CI: 0.82-0.88).

Conclusion

Based on the results of this meta-analysis, serum IL-6 is a promising biomarker for diagnosing SAP in the early stage. However, a larger-scale study involving a more extensive population is necessary due to the considerable variation between the studies.

Immune markers of severe acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Acute pancreatitis is a common acute inflammatory disorder of the pancreas, and its incidence has been increasing worldwide. Approximately 10% of acute pancreatitis progresses to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which carries significant morbidity and mortality. Disordered immune response to pancreatic injury is regarded as a key event that mediates systemic injury in SAP. In this article, we review recent developments in immune biomarkers of SAP and future directions for research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Given the importance of the NLRP3-inflammasome pathway in mediating systemic inflammatory response syndrome and systemic injury, recent studies have investigated associations of SAP with systemic levels of activators of NLRP3, such as the damage associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) for the first time in human SAP. For example, circulating levels of histones, mitochondrial DNAs, and cell free DNAs have been associated with SAP. A panel of mechanistically relevant immune markers (e.g., panel of Angiopoeitin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, interleukin-8 (IL-8), resistin and sTNF-α R1) carried higher predictive accuracies than existing clinical scores and individual immune markers. Of the cytokines with established relevance to SAP pathogenesis, phase 2 trials of immunotherapies, including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha inhibition and stimulation of IL-10 production, are underway to determine if altering the immunologic response can reduce the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

SUMMARY

Circulating systemic levels of various DAMPs and a panel of immune markers that possibly reflect activities of different pathways that drive SAP appear promising as predictive biomarkers for SAP. But larger multicenter studies are needed for external validation. Studies investigating immune cellular pathways driving SAP using immunophenotyping techniques are scarce. Interdisciplinary efforts are also needed to bring some of the promising biomarkers to the bedside for validation and testing for clinical utility. Studies investigating the role of and characterization of altered gut-lymph and gut-microbiota in severe AP are needed.

Radiological and Biochemical Parameters in Assessing Acute Pancreatitis Severity: A Comprehensive Review

Acute pancreatitis is a dynamic inflammatory condition of the pancreas with a spectrum ranging from mild to severe. Early and accurate assessment of disease severity is crucial for guiding clinical management and improving patient outcomes. This comprehensive review explores the role of radiological and biochemical parameters in assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis. Radiological imaging modalities, including computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and ultrasound (US), play a pivotal role in identifying key features, such as pancreatic necrosis and peripancreatic fluid collections, indicative of severe disease. Additionally, serum markers such as amylase, lipase, and C-reactive protein (CRP) provide valuable prognostic information and aid in risk stratification. Integrating radiological and biochemical parameters allows for a multidimensional evaluation of disease severity, enabling clinicians to make informed decisions regarding patient management. Early identification of severe cases facilitates timely interventions, including intensive care monitoring, nutritional support, and potential surgical interventions. Despite significant advancements in the field, there remain areas for further research, including the validation of emerging imaging techniques and biomarkers and the exploration of personalized management approaches. Addressing these research gaps can enhance our understanding of acute pancreatitis and ultimately improve patient care and outcomes.

Identification and analysis of chemokine-related and NETosis-related genes in acute pancreatitis to develop a predictive model

Background: Chemokines and NETosis are significant contributors to the inflammatory response, yet there still needs to be a more comprehensive understanding regarding the specific molecular characteristics and interactions of NETosis and chemokines in the context of acute pancreatitis (AP) and severe AP (SAP). Methods: To address this gap, the mRNA expression profile dataset GSE194331 was utilized for analysis, comprising 87 AP samples (77 non-SAP and 10 SAP) and 32 healthy control samples. Enrichment analyses were conducted for differentially expressed chemokine-related genes (DECRGs) and NETosis-related genes (DENRGs). Three machine-learning algorithms were used for the identification of signature genes, which were subsequently utilized in the development and validation of nomogram diagnostic models for the prediction of AP and SAP. Furthermore, single-gene Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) and Gene Set Variation Analysis (GSVA) were performed. Lastly, an interaction network for the identified signature genes was constructed. Results: We identified 12 DECRGs and 7 DENRGs, and enrichment analyses indicated they were primarily enriched in cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, chemokine signaling pathway, TNF signaling pathway, and T cell receptor signaling pathway. Moreover, these machine learning algorithms finally recognized three signature genes (S100A8, AIF1, and IL18). Utilizing the identified signature genes, we developed nomogram models with high predictive accuracy for AP and differentiation of SAP from non-SAP, as demonstrated by area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.968 (95% CI 0.937-0.990) and 0.862 (95% CI 0.742-0.955), respectively, in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Subsequent single-gene GESA and GSVA indicated a significant positive correlation between these signature genes and the proteasome complex. At the same time, a negative association was observed with the Th1 and Th2 cell differentiation signaling pathways. Conclusion: We have identified three genes (S100A8, AIF1, and IL18) related to chemokines and NETosis, and have developed accurate diagnostic models that might provide a novel method for diagnosing AP and differentiating between severe and non-severe cases.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Fire in the belly: A scoping review of the immunopathological mechanisms of acute pancreatitis

Introduction

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is characterised by an inflammatory response that in its most severe form can cause a systemic dysregulated immune response and progression to acute multi-organ dysfunction. The pathobiology of the disease is unclear and as a result no targeted, disease-modifying therapies exist. We performed a scoping review of data pertaining to the human immunology of AP to summarise the current field and to identify future research opportunities.

Methods

A scoping review of all clinical studies of AP immunology was performed across multiple databases. Studies were included if they were human studies of AP with an immunological outcome or intervention.

Results

205 studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. Severe AP is characterised by significant immune dysregulation compared to the milder form of the disease. Broadly, this immune dysfunction was categorised into: innate immune responses (including profound release of damage-associated molecular patterns and heightened activity of pattern recognition receptors), cytokine profile dysregulation (particularly IL-1, 6, 10 and TNF-α), lymphocyte abnormalities, paradoxical immunosuppression (including HLA-DR suppression and increased co-inhibitory molecule expression), and failure of the intestinal barrier function. Studies including interventions were also included. Several limitations in the existing literature have been identified; consolidation and consistency across studies is required if progress is to be made in our understanding of this disease.

Conclusions

AP, particularly the more severe spectrum of the disease, is characterised by a multifaceted immune response that drives tissue injury and contributes to the associated morbidity and mortality. Significant work is required to develop our understanding of the immunopathology of this disease if disease-modifying therapies are to be established.

Heparin-binding protein is significantly increased in acute pancreatitis

Background

Most patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) experience mild, self-limiting disease with little or no need for hospital care. However, 20–25% of patients develop a more severe and potentially life-threatening condition with progressive systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and multiorgan failure, resulting in high morbidity and mortality rates. Predicting disease severity at an early stage is important, as immediate supportive care has been demonstrated to reduce the incidence of SIRS and organ failure, improving patient outcome. Several studies have demonstrated elevated levels of heparin-binding protein (HBP) in patients with sepsis and septic shock, and HBP is believed to play a part in endothelial dysfunction leading to vascular leakage. As HBP levels increase prior to other known biomarkers, HBP has emerged as a promising early predictor of severe sepsis with organ dysfunction.

Methods

Patients admitted to Skåne University Hospital in Malmö between 2010 and 2013 fulfilling the criteria for AP were identified in the emergency department and prospectively enrolled in this study. The primary outcome was measured levels of HBP upon hospital admission in patients with confirmed AP. Correlations among HBP concentrations, disease severity and fluid balance were considered secondary endpoints. The correlation between HBP levels and fluid balance were analysed using Pearson correlation, and the ability of HBP to predict moderately severe/severe AP was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

The overall median HBP level in this study was 529 (307–898) ng/ml. There were no significant group differences in HBP levels based on AP severity. Fluid balance differed significantly between patients with mild versus moderately severe and severe pancreatitis, but we found no correlation between HBP concentration and fluid balance.

Conclusions

HBP levels are dramatically increased in patients with AP, and these levels far exceed those previously reported in other conditions. In this study, we did not observe any significant correlation between HBP levels and disease severity or the need for intravenous fluid. Additional studies on HBP are needed to further explore the role of HBP in the pathogenesis of AP and its possible clinical implications.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01910-6.

Comprehensive Mechanism, Novel Markers and Multidisciplinary Treatment of Severe Acute Pancreatitis-Associated Cardiac Injury - A Narrative Review

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common acute abdominal inflammatory diseases in clinic with acute onset and rapid progress. About 20% of the patients will eventually develop into severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) characterized by a large number of inflammatory cells infiltration, gland flocculus flaky necrosis and hemorrhage, finally inducing systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Pancreatic enzyme activation, intestinal endotoxemia (IETM), cytokine activation, microcirculation disturbance, autonomic nerve dysfunction and autophagy dysregulation all play an essential role in the occurrence and progression of SAP. Organ dysfunction is the main cause of early death in SAP. Acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute lung injury (ALI) are common, while cardiac injury (CI) is not, but the case fatality risk is high. Many basic studies have observed obvious ultrastructure change of heart in SAP, including myocardial edema, cardiac hypertrophy, myocardial interstitial collagen deposition. Moreover, in clinical practice, patients with SAP often presented various abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG) and cardiac function. Cases complicated with acute myocardial infarction and pericardial tamponade have also been reported and even result in stress cardiomyopathy. Due to the molecular mechanisms underlying SAP-associated cardiac injury (SACI) remain poorly understood, and there is no complete, unified treatment and sovereign remedy at present, this article reviews reports referring to the pathogenesis, potential markers and treatment methods of SACI in recent years, in order to improve the understanding of cardiac injury in severe pancreatitis.

The Initial Course of IL1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IFN-γ and TNF-α with Regard to Severity Grade in Acute Pancreatitis

Clinical reports on early immune dysregulation in acute pancreatitis (AP) are scarce. Herein we investigate the initial temporal development of selected biomarkers. Blood samples were taken at 0–24 and 25–48 h after onsets of AP were acquired. Mean values and temporal intermediate difference (delta-values) of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IFN-γ and TNF-α were calculated. Differences between severity groups, predictive capacity of the biomarkers and association with severe disease were analyzed. Paired comparison of samples (n = 115) taken at 0–24 and 25–48 h after onsets of AP showed a change over time for IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10 (p < 0.05) and a significant difference between severity groups after 24 h. In ROC-analysis an IL-6 cut-off level of 196.6 pg/mL could differentiate severe AP (sensitivity 81.9, specificity 91.3). The delta-values of IL-1β and IL-6 were significantly associated with severe outcomes (odds ratios 1.085 and 1.002, respectively). Data of this work demonstrate a distinct change in IL-1β, IL-8, IL-10 and IL-6 over the first 48 h after onset of AP. The temporal development of biomarkers can assist in the early stratification of the disease. Herein IL-1β and IL-6 were associated with severe disease, however the prognostic capacity of investigated biomarkers is low.

Predictive value of serum soluble B7-H4 in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Studies reported that soluble B7-H4 (sB7-H4) was significantly related to the progression and prognosis of inflammatory diseases, and whether sB7-H4 is related to the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) timely has not been reported.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical database data of 446 AP patients were retrospectively collected, and the correlation between the expression serum levels of sB7-H4 with inflammatory factors and prognostic scores was analysed in AP patients.

RESULTS

Soluble B7-H4 was significantly correlated with IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, PCT, CRP levels and WBC count (P < .01), with correlation coefficients of R = .61, .53, .46, .60, .57 and .47, respectively, and AUCs were 0.905, 0.837, 0.797, 0.858, 0.890, 0.841 and 0.855, respectively. In addition, sB7-H4 was significantly correlated with the Ranson score, APACHE II score and BISAP score (P < .001), with correlation coefficients of R = .58, .63 and .59, respectively. The AUCs of assessing local complications of AP were 0.908, 0.863, 0.785 and 0.844, respectively; assessing organ failure were 0.872, 0.790, 0.796 and 0.857, respectively; and assessing in-hospital mortality were 0.839, 0.821, 0.796 and 0.823, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Soluble B7-H4 could be used as a marker for the diagnosis, severity assessment and poor prognosis assessment of AP patients, which may have potential clinical applications.

Potential Prognostic Markers of Acute Kidney Injury in the Early Phase of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication of acute pancreatitis (AP), which occurs in up to 70% of patients with severe AP and significantly increases the risk of mortality. At present, AKI is diagnosed based on dynamic increase in serum creatinine and decreased urine output; however, there is a need for earlier and more accurate biomarkers. The aim of the study was to review current evidence on the laboratory tests that were studied as the potential biomarkers of AKI in AP. We also briefly summarized the knowledge coming from the studies including sepsis or ICU patients since severe acute pancreatitis is associated with systemic inflammation and organ failure. Serum cystatin C and serum or urine NGAL have been shown to predict or diagnose AKI in AP; however, this evidence come from the single center studies of low number of patients. Other markers, such as urinary kidney injury molecule-1, cell cycle arrest biomarkers (tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase-2 and urine insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7), interleukin-18, liver-type fatty acid-binding protein, or calprotectin have been studied in other populations suffering from systemic inflammatory states. In AP, the potential markers of AKI may be significantly influenced by either dehydration or inflammation, and the impact of these factors may be difficult to distinguish from kidney injury. The subject of AKI complicating AP is understudied. More studies are needed, for both exploratory (to choose the best markers) and clinical (to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the chosen markers in real clinical settings).

Prognostic value of D-dimer in acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To investigate the prognostic value of D-dimer in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane library, CBM, CNKI and other resources (from the date of their establishment to October 2017) were searched systematically. Eligible cohort studies on the predictive value of D-dimer in AP patients were collected. Quality assessment and data extraction were performed in those clinical trials in line with the inclusion criteria. Meta Disc software was applied to carry out meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included in the quantitative analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio with corresponding 95%CI for prediction of severity of AP were 0.80 (0.74-0.80), 0.75 (0.72-0.79), 3.17 (2.74-3.66), and 0.30 (0.23-0.38), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8345 (diagnostic odds ratio = 11.47; 95%CI: 8.06-16.33), albeit with no significant heterogeneity (Q = 4.57, I² = 0.0%, P > 0.1).

CONCLUSION

D-dimer has the potential to serve as a prognostic marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of AP.

Efficacy of ulinastatin combined with octreotide for patients with severe pancreatitis: Effect on clinical symptoms, serological markers and safety

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy of ulinastatin combined with octreotide in the treatment of severe pancreatitis and the effect on clinical symptoms, serological indicators and safety.

METHODS

Ninety-four patients with severe pancreatitis who were treated at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital from February 2016 to January 2018 were randomly divided into an experimental group (46 cases) and a reference group (48 cases). The reference group was treated with octreotide alone, and the experimental group was treated with octreotide combined with ulinastatin. The treatment lasted 2 wk in both groups. Clinical curative effect, serological parameters, amylase, intestinal mucosal function index and complications were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The total effective rate in the experimental group was 95.65%, which was significantly higher than that of the reference group (83.33%; P < 0.05). Time to disappearance of abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting and peritoneal irritation, time to first defecation, time to bowel sound recovery and hospital stay in the experimental group were significantly shorter than those of the reference group (P < 0.05), and the mortality rate was significantly lower than that of the reference group (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in serum C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-18, interleukin-6, blood amylase, urine amylase, occludin, diamine oxidase or endotoxin levels between the two groups before treatment (P > 0.05). After treatment intervention, the above-mentioned indicators improved significantly in both groups, and the experimental group improved significantly better than those of the reference group (P < 0.05). The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute renal failure and shock in the experimental group was significantly lower than that of the reference group (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of pancreatic encephalopathy syndrome or metabolic dysfunction between the two groups (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Ulinastatin combined with octreotide has good clinical effects in severe pancreatitis patients and can improve treatment efficiency, clinical symptoms and serological indicators, protect the intestinal mucosal function, and reduce the incidence of complications.

Predicative values of C-reactive protein for the therapeutic effects of ulinastatin combined with somatostatin in severe acute pancreatitis and for the severity of gastrointestinal failure

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is a serious systemic disease with high mortality. Ulinastatin is a drug widely used for patients with SAP and multiple organ failure syndrome. The present study aimed to investigate the capacity of the serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels to predict the therapeutic effects of ulinastatin combined with somatostatin as well as determine the severity of SAP. SAP patients were treated with ulinastatin combined with somatostatin and serum CRP levels were measured. The computed tomography severity index (CTSI), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and gastrointestinal failure scores were used to determine the therapeutic effects. All patients were assigned to the effective group and the ineffective group. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of CRP levels in predicting the severity of SAP and patient prognosis. Logistic regression analysis was adopted to investigate the factors influencing the therapeutic effects. Prior to and after treatment, serum CRP levels in patients of the effective and ineffective groups were significantly different. After treatment, serum CRP levels in patients of the effective group exhibited a more obvious reduction. The sensitivity and specificity of serum CRP levels in predicting the therapeutic effects of ulinastatin combined with somatostatin in SAP patients upon hospital admission were 0.813 and 0.934, respectively. Serum CRP levels were positively correlated with APACHE II, CTSI and gastrointestinal failure scores of SAP patients. The logistic regression demonstrated that serum albumin, creatinine and CRP levels on admission were factors influencing the therapeutic effects of ulinastatin combined with somatostatin in SAP patients. These results indicate that serum CRP levels may have a predictive value regarding the therapeutic effects of ulinastatin combined with somatostatin and are an indicator of the severity of gastrointestinal failure in SAP.

Serum ghrelin, but not obestatin, is a potential predictor of acute pancreatitis severity

The roles of ghrelin and obestatin in AP remain controversial.This study investigates the effects and the predictive value of serum ghrelin and obestatin levels in the early stage of AP.A total of 193 consecutive patients with AP and 24 healthy controls were included. Patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) groups. Serum levels of ghrelin and obestatin were measured on the first, third, and fifth days of hospitalization. The predictive value of serum ghrelin and obestatin levels on the first day in AP was examined using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves.On the first day of hospitalization, the mean serum ghrelin level was significantly lower in patients with AP than in controls (P < .01). The serum ghrelin concentration decreased with increasing AP severity and was lower in patients with SAP than in those with MAP and MSAP (P < .05). It increased gradually from the first to the fifth day after treatment. ROC curves demonstrated that the serum ghrelin level on the first day had some predictive value for AP severity (area under the ROC curve = 0.646), with an optimal cut-off value of 87.83 pg/mL. Logistic regression showed that the serum ghrelin level had independent predictive value for non-MAP (odds ratio = 10.94; 95% confidence interval, 5.08-23.55; P < .01). The serum obestatin level did not differ significantly between patients with AP and controls and had the limited predictive value for non-MAP (area under the ROC curve = 0.564). However, the serum obestatin concentration showed a "warning" effect regarding AP etiology; on the first day of treatment, it was significantly lower in patients with AP of hypertriglyceridemic etiology than in those with AP of biliary, alcohol-related, and other etiologies (P = .05, P = .031, and P = .029, respectively).Serum ghrelin and obestatin levels may be related to the progression of AP in the early stage. Only the serum ghrelin level is a potential predictor of AP severity in the early stage. Obestatin may be involved in the pathogenesis of AP caused by hypertriglyceridemia.

BISAP, RANSON, lactate and others biomarkers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis in a European cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The study aims to assess and compare the predicting ability of some scores and biomarkers in acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

We prospectively collected data from 269 patients diagnosed of acute pancreatitis, admitted to Virgen de las Nieves University Hospital between June 2010 and June 2012. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein, and creatinine were measured on admission and after 48 h, lactate and bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis (BISAP) only on admission and RANSON within the first 48 h. Definitions from 2012 Atlanta Classification were used. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, obtaining optimal cut-off values from the receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Eight (3%) patients died, 17 (6.3%) were classified as SAP, and 10 (3.7%) were admitted in ICU. BISAP was the best predictor on admission for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission with an AUC of 0.9 (95% CI 0.83-0.97); 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99); and 0.89 (95% CI 0.79-0.99), respectively. After 48 h, BUN 48 h was the best predictor of SAP (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99); BUN 48 h and BISAP were the best predictors for mortality (AUC = 0.97 CI: 0.95-0.99) and creatinine 48 h for ICU admission (AUC = 0.96 CI: 0.92-0.99). Lactate showed an AUC of 0.79 (CI: 0.71-0.88), 0.87 (CI: 0.78-0.96), and 0.77 (CI: 0.67-0.87) for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, respectively. All parameters were predictors for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, but C-reactive protein on admission was only a significant predictor of SAP.

CONCLUSION

Bedside index for severity acute pancreatitis is a good predictive system for SAP, mortality, and ICU admission, being useful for triaging patients for ICU management. Lactate could be useful for developing new scores.

IL-6 and CRP are superior in early differentiation between mild and non-mild acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The revised Atlanta classification on acute pancreatitis (AP) presents distinct criteria for severity categorization. Due to the lack of reliable prognostic markers, a majority of patients with AP are currently hospitalized and initially managed identically. As incidence and financial costs are rising the need for early severity differentiation will increase. This study aimed to investigate the capacity of biomarkers to stratify AP patients during the initial course of the disease.

METHODS

Patients with AP were prospectively enrolled and dichotomized into mild or non-mild (moderately severe and severe AP) according to the revised Atlanta classification. Serum samples taken within 13-36 h after onset of disease were analyzed for 20 biomarkers. Through receiver operating curves cut-off levels were set for 5 biomarkers whose stratifying ability was further analyzed. Additionally, the patients were classified according to the harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS).

RESULTS

Among the 175 patients, 70.9% had mild and 29.1% non-mild AP. CRP and IL-6 combined, with cut-off levels 57.0 and 23.6 respectively, demonstrated superior discriminative capacity with an area under the curve of 0.803, sensitivity 98%, specificity 54% and a positive and negative likelihood ratio of 2.1 and 0.06 for the non-mild group. Regarding the mild group likelihood ratios were positive 26.5 and negative 0.48. The identification potential of the HAPS was generally inferior when compared to CRP plus IL-6.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study CRP and IL-6 demonstrate a clinically relevant capacity to differentiate mild from non-mild AP early in the course of AP.