Comparing the Accuracy of ABCD-10 and SCORTEN in Predicting the In-Hospital Mortality of Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis: A Multi-Institutional Study from Central China

Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis: 11-year retrospective experience in a high-complexity tertiary hospital in Milan, Italy

Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are severe drug-induced hypersensitivity reactions characterized by widespread epidermal necrosis, mucous membrane erosions, and systemic findings. We have provided our 11-year experience from a Milan, Italy tertiary hospital managing SJS/TEN, evaluating the clinical and histopathologic features plus the impact on mortality. We retrospectively analyzed 28 patients diagnosed with SJS/TEN based on the clinical and histopathologic findings, according to the classification criteria of multiple studies. We assessed the dermatographics, comorbidities, drug history, lesion characteristics, clinical findings, treatments, blood tests, and outcomes. Severity scores (SCORTEN, Re-SCORTEN, ABCD-10) were used for treatment evaluation and mortality prediction. Data were statistically analyzed, and significant factors associated with mortality were identified. We found that among the 28 patients, 89.2% had comorbidities, mainly cardiovascular diseases, and 21.4% had autoimmune disorders. All patients had received systemic therapy (46.6% monotherapy, 53.6% combination therapy), with systemic steroids (71.4%) and intravenous immunoglobulins (67.8%) being common treatments. There were complications, including systemic infections (67.9%) and septic shock (10.7%). The overall mortality rate was 17.8%. The statistical analysis indicated that malignancy, a high ABCD-10 score, and a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were significantly associated with mortality. The extent of affected body surface area did not correlate significantly with mortality. This study provides insights into SJS/TEN management, revealing factors influencing mortality in a high-complexity tertiary hospital setting.

RDW-SD and PCT Are Potential Prognostic Factors for In-hospital Death in Patients With Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis

PURPOSE

Our study aimed to explore potential prognostic factors in Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) patients from easily accessible laboratory data and to investigate whether the combination of these indicators with a score for toxic epidermal necrolysis (SCORTEN) can improve the predictive value.

METHODS

Data from 85 SJS/TEN patients hospitalized from 2010 to 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Univariate analysis was used to screen for laboratory indexes associated with death. Logistic regression was used to analyze significant risk factors for death. The differentiation and calibration of SCORTEN and modified score were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the incremental prognostic value.

RESULTS

Among the 85 patients (37 males, 48 females) aged 14-88 years, the mortality rate was 11.8% (n = 10). SCORTEN had good discrimination and calibration to predict mortality in this cohort of patients (area under the ROC curve [AUC] of 0.874, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.758-0.990; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test P = 0.994). Red cell distribution width-standard deviation index (RDW-SD) > 47.9 fL and procalcitonin (PCT) > 0.67 ng/mL were significant risk factors for death. When adding the 2 factors to SCORTEN, AUC was 0.915 (95% CI, 0.833-0.997), but not statistically different compared to SCORTEN alone (P = 0.091). The NRI was 1.2 (95% CI, 0.672-1.728; P < 0.001) and the IDI was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.011-0.173; P = 0.026), still suggesting that the modified score had better discriminatory and predictive power than SCORTEN alone. The modified score also showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, P = 0.915).

CONCLUSIONS

SCORTEN is a good predictor of mortality in SJS/TEN patients in southwest China. Combining RDW-SD > 47.9 fL and PCT > 0.67 ng/mL with SCORTEN may enhance the ability to predict prognosis.

Updates in SJS/TEN: collaboration, innovation, and community

Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis (SJS/TEN) is a predominantly drug-induced disease, with a mortality rate of 15-20%, that engages the expertise of multiple disciplines: dermatology, allergy, immunology, clinical pharmacology, burn surgery, ophthalmology, urogynecology, and psychiatry. SJS/TEN has an incidence of 1-5/million persons per year in the United States, with even higher rates globally. One of the challenges of SJS/TEN has been developing the research infrastructure and coordination to answer questions capable of transforming clinical care and leading to improved patient outcomes. SJS/TEN 2021, the third research meeting of its kind, was held as a virtual meeting on August 28-29, 2021. The meeting brought together 428 international scientists, in addition to a community of 140 SJS/TEN survivors and family members. The goal of the meeting was to brainstorm strategies to support the continued growth of an international SJS/TEN research network, bridging science and the community. The community workshop section of the meeting focused on eight primary themes: mental health, eye care, SJS/TEN in children, non-drug induced SJS/TEN, long-term health complications, new advances in mechanisms and basic science, managing long-term scarring, considerations for skin of color, and COVID-19 vaccines. The meeting featured several important updates and identified areas of unmet research and clinical need that will be highlighted in this white paper.

An alternative model for assessing mortality risk in Stevens Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis using a random forests classifier: A pilot study

Introduction

Mortality risk prediction is an important part of the clinical assessment in the Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) patient. The SCORTEN and ABCD-10 scoring systems have been used as predictive clinical tools for assessing this risk. However, some of the metrics required in calculating these scores, such as the total body surface area (TBSA) involvement, are difficult to calculate. In addition, TBSA involvement is calculated in a variety of ways and is observer dependent and subjective. The goal of this study was to develop an alternative method to predict mortality in patients with SJS/TEN.

Methods

Data was split into training and test datasets and preprocessed. Models were trained using five-fold cross validation. Out of several possible candidates, a random forests model was evaluated as being the most robust in predictive power for this dataset. Upon feature selection, a final random forests model was developed which was used for comparison against SCORTEN.

Results

The differences in both accuracy (p = 0.324) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (p = 0.318) between the final random forests model and the SCORTEN and ABCD-10 models were not statistically significant. As such, this alternative method performs similarly to SCORTEN while only requiring simple laboratory tests from the day of admission.

Discussion

This new alternative can make the mortality prediction process more efficient, along with providing a seamless implementation of the patient laboratory tests directly into the model from existing electronic health record (EHR) systems. Once the model was developed, a web application was built to deploy the model which integrates with the Epic EHR system on the Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) Application Programming Interface (API); this only requires the patient medical record number and a date of the lab tests as parameters. This model ultimately allows clinicians to calculate patient mortality risk with only a few clicks. Further studies are needed for validation of this tool.

Scoring Assessments in Stevens-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis

Epidermal necrolysis, the unifying term for Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), is a severe cutaneous drug reaction associated with high morbidity and mortality. Given the rarity of this disease, large-scale prospective research studies are limited. Significant institutional and geographical variations in treatment practices highlight the need for standardization of clinical assessment scores and prioritization of research outcome measures in epidermal necrolysis. At the present, clinical assessment is typically simplified to total body surface area (BSA) involvement, with little focus on morphology. Validated clinical scoring systems are used as mortality prognostication tools, with SCORTEN being the best-validated tool thus far, although the ABCD-10 has also been recently introduced. These tools are imperfect in that they tend to either overestimate or underestimate mortality in certain populations and are not designed to monitor disease progression. Although mortality is often used as a primary endpoint for epidermal necrolysis studies, this outcome fails to capture more nuanced changes in skin disease such as arrest of disease progression while also lacking a validated skin-directed inclusion criterion to stratify patients based on the severity of skin disease at study entry. In addition to mortality, many studies also use BSA stabilization or time to re-epithelialization as endpoints, although these are not clearly defined morphologically, and inter- and intra-rater reliability are unclear. More specific, validated cutaneous assessment scores are necessary in order advance therapeutic options for epidermal necrolysis. In this review, we summarize the strengths and weaknesses of current clinical assessment practices in epidermal necrolysis and highlight the need for standardized research tools to monitor cutaneous involvement throughout the hospitalization.