Incidence and determinants of mortality among adult HIV infected patients on second-line antiretroviral treatment in Amhara region, Ethiopia: a retrospective follow up study

Statistical analysis on the incidence and predictors of death among second-line ART patients in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones, Ethiopia, 2021

Acquired immune deficiency virus, caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, is a significant global health concern. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly Ethiopia faces a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. In low-income settings like Ethiopia, early mortality rates are elevated due to severe opportunistic infections and advanced disease at Anti-retroviral treatment initiation. Despite available treatments, delayed treatment initiation among Human Immunodeficiency Virus -infected individuals in Africa, including Ethiopia, leads to disease progression and increased mortality risk. This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the death of HIV patients under treatment at second line regimen in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A retrospective cohort study with 474 patients was conducted in selected hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A parametric Weibull regression model was employed, and the adjusted hazard ratio served as the measure of association. Variables significantly affected the outcome of the study was determined at a p-value < 0.05, along with a 95% confidence interval for the variables. The patients were within the average age of 38.6(standard deviation ± 12.5) years and majority (45.57%) had no formal education. The overall death incidence rate among second-line anti-retroviral treatment patients was 1.98 per 100-person years [95% CI 1.4-2.9%]. Poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment, male gender, and being underweight significantly increased the hazard of death. Conversely, increased anti-retroviral treatment duration had a significant and negative impact, reducing the hazard of death among patients. The study reveals a high incidence of death among second line anti-retroviral treatment users. Independent predictors include poor adherence, male gender, and underweight status, all significantly increasing the risk of death. On the positive side, the hazard of death decreases with longer anti-retroviral treatment duration. A critical concern and counseling should be given for better ART adherence, to change their nutritional status and for males.

Virological failure and its predictors among human immunodeficiency virus infected individuals on second line antiretroviral treatment in North-East Ethiopia, 2021

INTRODUCTION

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) becomes a manageable chronic disease due to the presence of effective prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and care accesses. Viral load cascade analyses are important to identify gaps in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS treatment and care for quality improvements.

OBJECTIVE

Time to Virological Failure and its Predictors among HIV Infected Individuals on Second Line Antiretroviral Treatment (SLART) in North-East Ethiopia, 2021.

METHODS

Institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 474 HIV-infected individuals who were on SLART between September 2016 and April 2020. A universal sampling technique was used to recruit study participants. Data were entered by EpiData-3.3.1 and analyzed by STATA-14. Cox proportional hazard assumptions were checked to determine the effect of predictor variables on virological failure (VF). The study was conducted from February 1 to April 30, 2021.

RESULTS

The rate of VF in this study was 15.4% with an incidence rate of 4.93 per 100 person-years. As participants' age and duration of ART use increased by 1 year the hazards of VF was reduced by 2.9% (AHR: 0.971, 95% CI: 0.945, 0.995) and 10.6% (AHR: 0.894, 95% CI: 0.828, 0.963), respectively. The hazards of VF were twice higher among those who were on a non-protease inhibitor-based regimen. Individuals who had a history of making enhanced adherence counseling (EAC) sessions during SLART had three times more risk to develop VF (AHR: 3.374, 95% CI: 1.790, 6.361).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The rate of VF among SLART users was high. Keeping SLART users on PI-based regimens may improve virological outcomes in HIV care and treatment. Making EAC sessions effective in promoting better ART adherence might reduce VF.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among adolescents on antiretroviral therapy in Amhara Region, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality in adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia's Amhara Region.

DESIGN

We conducted an institution-based retrospective follow-up study.

SETTINGS

The study was conducted at Amhara Region's comprehensive specialised hospitals in Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 961 randomly selected medical records of adolescents receiving ART between January 2005 and June 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

The incidence of mortality since ART treatment initiation served as the primary outcome, and predictors of mortality served as secondary outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to examine the relationship between mortality and its predictors. Variables with p values<0.05 in the multivariable analysis were considered statistically significant mortality predictors. Adjusted HR (aHR) with 95% CI was used to measure the strength of association.

RESULTS

More than half (n=496, 53.5%) of the adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) were girls. The adolescent mortality rate was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.53) per 100 person-years throughout the follow-up period of 81 583 adolescent months. Mortality was higher for ALHIV who had not received formal education (aHR: 3.27, 95% CI: 1.36 to 7.87), had widowed parents (aHR: 1.85, CI: 95% 1.01 to 3.56) or received no social support (aHR: 2.81, 95% CI: 1.69 to 4.67). Adolescents who had opportunistic infections (OIs) at ART initiation (aHR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.19 to 3.14), low haemoglobin (Hgb/g/l) levels (aHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.18), a bedridden functional status (aHR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.64 to 5.72), stage IV clinical staging (aHR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.46 to 6.30), non-disclosing status (aHR: 2.24, 95% CI:1.36 to 3.69) and CD4 count 200-350 cells/mm³ (aHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.18) also had a higher risk of death. Not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (aHR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.22) and poor adherence to ART (aHR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.95), compared with adherent, was associated with higher mortality risk. Changed treatment regimens were associated with lower mortality (aHR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found a lower mortality rate for adolescents with HIV than previous Ethiopian studies, but our significant mortality predictors were similar to those found in earlier studies of adults and adolescents. Our findings reveal a potential point for health service improvement in Ethiopia: incorporating monitoring of Hgb levels into patient follow-up care, supporting recommendations that clinicians emphasise managing OIs and providing counselling services to improve adherence.

Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background

In Ethiopia, second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients was started some years ago; however, few studies have reported the unfavorable outcomes of second-line ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of unfavorable outcomes and their association with change in viral load among adult HIV/AIDS patients on second-line treatment at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 421 HIV/AIDS patients on second-line ART from 2016 to 2021. Cox proportional hazard models with a linear mixed effect model were jointly modeled using the JM package of R software with time-dependent lagged parameterizations, and a 95% confidence interval was used to select significant variables.

Results

Overall, 89 HIV/AIDS patients developed unfavorable outcomes. The incidence density was 7.48/100 person-years (95% CI: 6.08, 9.2). Secondary and tertiary educational level (AHR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.89, and AHR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.72), CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm³ (AHR=2.15, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.83), poor adherence (AHR=3.59, 95% CI: 1.73, 7.49), and TB comorbidity (AHR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.14) at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcome. Time-dependent lagged value viral load was significantly associated with the risk of unfavorable outcome (AHR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.63).

Conclusion

In the study area, the incidence of an unfavorable outcome of second-line ART was high. Secondary and tertiary educational level, CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm³, poor adherence, and TB comorbidity at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcomes. Thus, strengthening routine viral load measurement, increase patient adherence, intensive counseling, and strong TB screening are needed in the study setting.

Effect of Switching Antiretroviral Treatment Regimen in Patients With Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Infection: Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen switches on the mortality of patients with HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to provide policy guidance for ART regimen selection and evaluate the effectiveness of ART regime switches for people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study included 179 people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance from 2011 to 2020. The time that participants switched treatment regimens either to protease inhibitor (PI)-based ART regimens (PIs) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART regimens (NNRTIs) was taken as an observation starting point and followed up every 12 months. The parametric g-formula was used to estimate the 5-year risk of mortality under the situations of (1) natural course, (2) immediate switch to NNRTIs, (3) immediate switch to PIs, and (4) if CD4(+) T cells<200 switched to PIs.

RESULTS

The follow-up time of the 179 patients ranged from 30 to 119 months. The median follow-up time was 90 months. During a follow-up of 15,606 person-months, 27 individuals died in the cohort. The estimated 5-year risk of mortality under natural course, immediate switch to NNRTIs, immediate switch to PIs, and if CD4(+), and switch to PIs if T cells<200 were 11.62% (95% CI 7.82-17.11), 31.88% (95% CI 20.79-44.94), 2.87% (95% CI 0.32-7.07), and 5.30% (95% CI 2.07-10.21), respectively. The risk ratios (RRs) of immediate switch to NNRTIs, immediate switch to PIs, and switch to PIs if CD4(+) T cells<200, compared with natural course mortality rate, were 2.74 (95% CI 2.01-3.47), 0.25 (95% CI: 0.04-0.54), and 0.46 (95% CI 0.22-0.71), respectively. The risk differences were 20.26% (95% CI 10.96-28.61), -8.76% (95% CI -13.34 to -5.09) and -6.32% (95% CI -9.75 to -3.11), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that a PI-based ART regimen was beneficial for reducing mortality in people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance. More effort should be given to find HIV-1 drug resistance earlier to ensure a timely adjustment to PI-based ART, thereby maximizing the benefit of early switch treatment for people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance.

Predictors of Mortality Among Adult HIV-Infected Patients Taking Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in Harari Hospitals, Ethiopia

Introduction

Despite the world has made efforts, the reduction of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related mortality by giving antiretroviral therapy (ART), still HIV/AIDS is killing people while they are on ART. However, the current progress and associated factors of mortality among ART-taking patients are hardly available. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine predictors of mortality among HIV-infected adult patients after starting antiretroviral therapy in Harar Hospitals, Harari region, Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was employed with randomly selected 610 medical records of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to identify predictors of mortality using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

Among 610 medical records analyzed with a total of 1410.7 follow-up years, 67 (11%) deaths were found giving an overall mortality rate of 4.75 per 100 person-years. The independent predictor of mortality identified was ambulatory/bedridden functional status (AHR=2.48; 95% CI: 1.43-4.28), taking other than Tenofovir-based regimen (AHR=2.5,95% CI; 1.04-5.94), not taking isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) (AHR=2.8; 95% CI: 1.61,4.71), hemoglobin <11g/dl (AHR=3.33,95% CI 1.94-5.69), and poor adherence to ART (AHR= 3.62, 95% CI: 1.87-7.0).

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that poor ART adherence, not taking IPT, and initiating ART with a non-Tenofovir-based regimen and low hemoglobin count were significantly associated with the risk of death. For this reason, addressing these all significant predictors is essential to prevent early death.

Incidence of Mortality and Its Predictors Among HIV Positive Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Despite the accessibility and higher coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia also shares the high burden of HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence of mortality and its predictors among adult HIV patients on ART in the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, northwest Ethiopia.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted from January 2015 to January 2019 at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A total of 475 patients who were on follow-up in this Hospital were included. The Cox proportional hazard model was fitted to assess the predictors of mortality. Both crude and adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with their 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to show the strength of association. In multivariable analysis, variables with a P-value <0.05 were considered as statistically significant predictors of mortality.

Results

In this study, a total of 45 (9.5%) patients died with an incidence rate of 5.3 [95% CI: 3.4–7.1] per 100 person-years of observation. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the last known WHO stage III/IV [AHR= 15.02; 95% CI: 5.79–38.92], being anemic at baseline [AHR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.02–4.78], and fair last known adherence level [AHR = 3.29; 95% CI: 1.39–7.78] were found to be significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

In this study, the incidence of mortality was relatively high. The rate of mortality may be minimized by paying particular attention to individuals with advanced WHO stage, anemia at the baseline, and those with adherence problems.

Determinants of Virologic Failure Among Adults on Second Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Wollo, Amhara Regional State, Northeast Ethiopia

Background

Treatment failure among the population on second line antiretroviral therapy is a major public health threat. In Ethiopia there has been limited research done on second line treatment failure.

Objective

To identify determinants of virologic failure among adults on second line antiretroviral therapy in six public hospitals of Wollo, Amhara regional state, northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based unmatched case–control study was conducted from February 1, 2020 to April 30, 2020 on a total of 377 clients in six public hospitals of Wollo, Amhara regional state, northeast Ethiopia. Clients whose viral load result >1,000 copies/mL in two consecutive results at least 3 month apart were cases, while ≤1,000 copies/mL were controls. The sample size was calculated by using Epi-Info version 7. Cases (94) and controls (283) were selected using a simple random sampling method in a ratio of cases-to-controls of 1:3. The model fitted and binary logistic assumptions were fulfilled with 95% confidence level and P-values<0.05 were taken as statistically significant.

Results

Virologic failure was predicted by poor adherence (AOR=6.060, 95% CI=2.837–12.944), not disclosing their HIV status (AOR=4.178, 95% CI=1.431–12.198), OI (AOR=4.11, 95% CI=1.827–9.246), CD4 count <100 cells/mm³ (AOR=3.497, 95% CI=1.233–9.923) and 100–350 cells/mm³ (AOR=5.442, 95% CI=2.191–13.513), low BMI <16 kg/m² (AOR=7.223, 95% CI=2.218–23.520), and young age 15–29 years (AOR=2.898, 95% CI=1.171–7.170).

Conclusion and Recommendations

Determinants of second line ART virologic failure were patients who had poor adherence to ART, not disclosed, opportunistic infection, low CD4 counts <350 cell/mm³, low BMI (<16 kg/m²), and young age 15–29 year patients. Social support, disclosing their HIV status, and getting early treatment for any opportunistic infection is crucial to patients.