Prognostic Value of Variability in Systolic Blood Pressure Related to Vascular Events and Premature Death in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The ADVANCE-ON Study

Minimum number of readings necessary for determining long-term visit-to-visit blood pressure variability to predict cardiovascular outcomes in people with diabetes

BACKGROUND

People with diabetes often have increased blood pressure (BP) variability because of autonomic dysfunction and arterial stiffness, making it a critical factor in predicting clinical outcomes. We investigated the reproducibility of long-term visit-to-visit BP variability (VVV) and the minimum number of BP readings to reliably determine VVV in people with diabetes.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study used data from electronic health records of the Korea University Medical Center database. Altogether, 10 475 people with diabetes who had more than nine BP readings during a maximum period of 2 years were identified. This study focused on the coefficient of variation of these readings and their correlation with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over a 3-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 65.2 years. Of these, 53.2% were men, and 87.4% had hypertension. The mean coefficient of variation of multiple SBP readings that best predicted the 3-year MACE were 8.4, 9.5, 9.0, 9.0, and 9.7 for three, five, seven, nine, and all readings, respectively. Patients with high VVV (coefficient of variation of five SBP readings >9) exhibited a higher incidence of 3-year MACE (10.1%) than those with low VVV (5.4%, P  < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, high VVV of both SBP and DBP were independently associated with 3-year MACE.

CONCLUSION

Long-term VVV in the BP is a reproducible and reliable predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in people with diabetes. A minimum of five BP measurements are recommended for effective intraindividual VVV estimation and cardiovascular risk assessment.

Home blood pressure stability score is associated with better cardiovascular prognosis: data from the nationwide prospective J-HOP study

A home blood pressure (BP)-centered strategy is emerging as the optimal approach to achieve adequate BP control in individuals with hypertension, but a simple cardiovascular risk score based on home BP level and variability is lacking. This study used prospective data from the Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure (J-HOP) extended study to develop a simple home BP stability score for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. The J-HOP extended study included 4070 participants (mean age 64.9 years) who measured home BP three times in the morning and evening for 14 days at baseline. During the mean 6.3-year follow-up, there were 260 cardiovascular events. A home BP stability score was calculated based on the average of morning and evening systolic BP (SBP; MEave), and three home BP variability metrics: average real variability (average absolute difference between successive measurements); average peak (average of the highest three SBP values for each individual), and time in therapeutic range (proportion of time spent with MEave home SBP 100-135 mmHg). There was a curvilinear association between the home BP stability score and the risk of cardiovascular events. Compared with individuals in the optimal home SBP stability score group (9-10 points), those in the very high-risk group (0 points) had significantly higher cardiovascular event risk during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 3.97, 95% confidence interval 2.22-7.09; p < 0.001), independent of age, sex, medication, cardiovascular risk factors, and office BP. These data show the potential for a simple home BP-based score to predict cardiovascular event risk in people with hypertension.

Development and validation of 10-year risk prediction models of cardiovascular disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care using interpretable machine learning-based methods

AIM

To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods.

METHODS

In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients.

CONCLUSION

Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care.

Reliability of beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in older adults

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is emerging as an important risk factor across numerous disease states, including cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative disease in older adults. However, there is no current consensus regarding specific use cases for the numerous available BPV metrics. There is also little published data supporting the ability to reliably measure BPV across metrics in older adults. The present study derived BPV metrics from continuous beat-to-beat blood pressure monitoring data. Two sequential 7 min waveforms were analyzed. Absolute and relative reliability testing was performed. Differences between antihypertensive medication users and non-users on BPV metric reliability was also assessed. All sequence and dispersion based BPV metrics displayed good test-retest reliability. A measure of BP instability displayed only moderate reliability. Systolic and diastolic average real variability displayed the highest levels of reliability at ICC = 0.87 and 0.82 respectively. Additionally, systolic average real variability was the most reliable metric in both the antihypertensive use group, and the no antihypertensive use group. In conclusion, beat-to-beat dispersion and sequence-based metrics of BPV can be reliably obtained in older adults using noninvasive continuous blood pressure monitoring. Average real variability may be the most reliable and specific beat-to-beat blood pressure variability metric due to its decreased susceptibility to outliers and low frequency blood pressure oscillations.

Impact of seasonal blood pressure changes on visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and related cardiovascular outcomes

BACKGROUND

Visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability associates with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We investigated the role of seasonal BP modifications on the magnitude of BP variability and its impact on cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

In 25 390 patients included in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials, the on-treatment systolic (S) BP values obtained by five visits during the first two years of the trials were grouped according to the month in which they were obtained. SBP differences between winter and summer months were calculated for BP variability quintiles (Qs), as quantified by the coefficient of variation (CV) of on-treatment mean SBP from the five visits. The relationship of BP variability with the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality was assessed by the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

SBP was approximately 4 mmHg lower in summer than in winter regardless of confounders. Winter/summer SBP differences contributed significantly to each SBP-CV quintile. Increase of SBP-CV from Q1 to Q5 was associated with a progressive increase in the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of the primary endpoint of the trials, i.e. morbid and fatal cardiovascular events. This association was even stronger after removal of the effect of seasonality from the calculation of SBP-CV. A similar trend was observed for secondary endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

Winter/summer SBP differences significantly contribute to visit-to-visit BP variability. However, this contribution does not participate in the adverse prognostic significance of visit-to-visit BP variations, which seems to be more evident after removal of the BP effects of seasonality from visit-to-visit BP variations.

Abnormal blood pressure dipping pattern: frequency, determinants, and correlates in Diabetes Mellitus patients in the Cardiovascular Health Risk Assessment in Diabetes Mellitus (CHiD) study

Purpose

Non-dipping status is associated with increased total and cardiovascular mortality in many disease conditions including diabetes mellitus. The pattern and its implications are not well described among Africans. This study was done to describe the frequency of abnormal blood pressure (BP) dipping among T2DM subjects, its determinants and correlates in Ogbomoso, Nigeria.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study done at the LAUTECH Teaching Hospital, Ogbomoso. One hundred individuals diagnosed with T2DM were recruited and they had 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring, echocardiography, ECG, and carotid Doppler among other evaluations. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS 27.0 (Chicago Ill, USA).

Results

The mean age of the participants was 59.3 ± 10.8 years, mean body mass index 27.7 ± 5.9 kg/m2 with a mean duration of diabetes of 7.52 ± 5.54 years. Abnormal BP dipping was present in 89% (consisting of 41% or reverse dippers and 48% non-dippers). T2DM subjects with abnormal dipping pattern were more likely to be females, had higher glycated haemoglobin, lower fractional shortening, higher left atrial volume and left ventricular mass index, and a higher DM duration than those with normal BP dipping status. The major determinants of abnormal dipping pattern were the duration of diabetes and low HDL-C concentration.

Conclusion

Abnormal BP dipping pattern is highly prevalent in T2DM subjects, especially among females. Abnormal BP dipping was also associated with markers of increased cardiovascular risk such as impaired kidney function, left ventricular hypertrophy, postural hypotension, history of intermittent claudication, and presence of plaques on carotid Doppler studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-023-01337-8.

Hypertension and Mild Cognitive Impairment: State-of-the-Art Review

BACKGROUND

Mid-life hypertension is associated with cognitive decline and dementia in later life. Reducing high blood pressure (BP) with antihypertensive agents is a well-researched strategy to prevent dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, there is still limited direct evidence to support the approach, and particularly for the treatment of the very old and those with existing MCI.

METHODS

This review presents an overview of the current evidence for the relationship between MCI and hypertension, and of the potential pathophysiological mechanisms related to cognitive decline and incidence dementia in relation to aging.

RESULTS

Although observational data are near consistent in showing an association between mid-life hypertension and MCI and/or dementia, the evidence in relation to hypertension in younger adults and the very old (age >80 years) is much more limited. Most of the commonly available antihypertensive agents appear to provide beneficial effects in reducing the risk dementia, but there is limited evidence to support such treatment in those with existing MCI.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies are needed to determine the optimal levels of BP control across different age groups, especially in adults with MCI, and which class(es) of antihypertensive agents and duration of treatment best preserve cognitive function in those at risk of, or with established, MCI.

Increased Blood Pressure Variability Over a 16-Year Period Is Associated With Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction in a Population-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) is often associated with elevated blood pressure (BP). It is prevalent among hypertensive patients. Additionally, increased BP variability has been linked to LVDD. However, the precise connection between LVDD and BP variability within the general population remains unclear. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate this association in a general population.

METHODS

A total of 2,578 participants(1,311 females) with a mean age of 47.8 ± 6.7 years who had echocardiographic data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology study with 16 years of follow-up were analyzed. LVDD was identified through the last echocardiography during the follow-up period. BP variability was assessed using mean, standard deviation (SD), and coefficient of variance (CV).

RESULTS

LVDD was detected in 249 individuals. The cohort was divided into an LVDD group and a normal LV diastolic function group. The LVDD group had a higher percentage of females, more advanced age, higher body mass index (BMI), higher BP and BUN levels, lower heart rate, lower hemoglobin, and lower serum creatinine than the normal LV diastolic function group. Remarkably, LVDD was associated with higher BP variability. In the multivariate analysis, LVDD was associated with increased age, female sex, increased BMI, hypertension, and increased BUN. Elevated mean systolic and diastolic BPs, SD of systolic BP, mean pulse pressure (PP), SD of PP, and CV of PP were significantly linked to LVDD even after adjusting for other significant variables in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

LVDD was identified in 249 (9.7%) participants. Increased long-term BP variability was significantly associated with LVDD in this population-based cohort.

Long-term systolic blood pressure variability independent of mean blood pressure is associated with mortality and cardiovascular events: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between long-term systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes after being adjusted with mean blood pressure (BP) is questionable. This systematic review aims to evaluate the associations between mean BP adjusted long-term SBPV and CV outcomes. A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct on January 4, 2023. A total of 9,944,254 subjects from 43 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Long-term SBPV increased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.21 [95%CI 1.16-1.25], I2=100%), CV mortality (HR 1.10 [95%CI 1.07-11.4], I2 = 90%), MACE (HR 1.10 [1.07-1.13], I2 = 91%), cerebrovascular stroke (HR 1.22 [1.16-1.29], I2=100%), and myocardial infarction (HR 1.13 [95%CI (1.07-1.19)], I2=91%). European populations generally had higher risk compared to other continents. In conclusion, long-term SBPV is associated with all-cause mortality, CV mortality, MACE, MI, and stroke. Poor outcomes related to long-term SBPV seem more dominated by cerebrovascular than coronary events.

Blood Pressure Variability as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease: Which Antihypertensive Agents Are More Effective?

Blood pressure oscillations during different time scales, known as blood pressure variability (BPV), have become a focus of growing scientific interest. BPV can be measured at long-term (seasonal variability or visit-to-visit), at mid-term (differences in consecutive days or weeks) or at short-term (day-night differences or changes induced by other daily activities and conditions). An increased BPV, either at long, mid or short-term is associated with a poor cardiovascular prognosis independently of the amount of blood pressure elevation. There is scarce evidence on the effect of different antihypertensive treatments on BPV, but some observational and interventional studies suggest that calcium channel blockers in general, and particularly amlodipine, either in monotherapy or combined with renin-angiotensin system blockers, can reduce BPV more efficiently than other antihypertensive drugs or combinations. Nevertheless, there are several aspects of the relationship between BPV, antihypertensive treatment, and clinical outcomes that are still unknown, and more work should be performed before considering BPV as a therapeutical target in clinical practice.

Blood pressure variability: methodological aspects, clinical relevance and practical indications for management - a European Society of Hypertension position paper ∗

Blood pressure is not a static parameter, but rather undergoes continuous fluctuations over time, as a result of the interaction between environmental and behavioural factors on one side and intrinsic cardiovascular regulatory mechanisms on the other side. Increased blood pressure variability (BPV) may indicate an impaired cardiovascular regulation and may represent a cardiovascular risk factor itself, having been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, stroke, coronary artery disease, heart failure, end-stage renal disease, and dementia incidence. Nonetheless, BPV was considered only a research issue in previous hypertension management guidelines, because the available evidence on its clinical relevance presents several gaps and is based on heterogeneous studies with limited standardization of methods for BPV assessment. The aim of this position paper, with contributions from members of the European Society of Hypertension Working Group on Blood Pressure Monitoring and Cardiovascular Variability and from a number of international experts, is to summarize the available evidence in the field of BPV assessment methodology and clinical applications and to provide practical indications on how to measure and interpret BPV in research and clinical settings based on currently available data. Pending issues and clinical and methodological recommendations supported by available evidence are also reported. The information provided by this paper should contribute to a better standardization of future studies on BPV, but should also provide clinicians with some indications on how BPV can be managed based on currently available data.

Within-Person Blood Pressure Variability During Hospitalization and Clinical Outcomes Following First-Ever Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty remains over the relationship between blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV), measured in hospital settings, and clinical outcomes following acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We examined the association between within-person systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability (SBPV) during hospitalization and readmission-free survival, all-cause readmission, or all-cause mortality 1 year after AIS.

METHODS

In a cohort of 862 consecutive patients (age [mean ± SD] 75 ± 15 years, 55% women) with AIS (2005-2018, follow-up through 2019), we measured SBPV as quartiles of standard deviations (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) from a median of 16 SBP readings obtained throughout hospitalization.

RESULTS

In the cumulative cohort, the measured SD and CV of SBP in mmHg were 16 ± 6 and 10 ± 5, respectively. The hazard ratios (HR) for readmission-free survival between the highest vs. lowest quartiles were 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.81) for SD and 1.29 (95% CI 0.94-1.78) for CV after adjustment for demographics and comorbidities. Similarly, incident readmission or mortality remained consistent between the highest vs. lowest quartiles of SD and CV (readmission: HR 1.29 [95% CI 0.90-1.78] for SD, HR 1.29 [95% CI 0.94-1.78] for CV; mortality: HR 1.15 [95% CI 0.71-1.87] for SD, HR 0.86 [95% CI 0.55-1.36] for CV).

CONCULSIONS

In patients with first AIS, SBPV measured as quartiles of SD or CV based on multiple readings throughout hospitalization has no independent prognostic implications for the readmission-free survival, readmission, or mortality. This underscores the importance of overall patient care rather than a specific focus on BP parameters during hospitalization for AIS.

Joint effect of blood pressure and glycemic variation on the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in persons with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have explored the association of visit-to-visit variation in blood pressure (BP) and glycemic factors with cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to examine the independent and joint effect of visit-to-visit BP and glycemic variation on CVD morbidity and mortality in persons with T2DM.

METHODS

The present study consisted of two retrospective cohort studies. The Taiwan Diabetes Study was based on a database of the National Diabetes Care Management Program (DCMP) and linked with cardiovascular morbidity incidence. The Taichung Diabetes Study was based on the DCMP database of a medical center, which can be linked with the National Death Registry dataset. The outcomes were analyzed by using Cox's proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

A total of 13,280 and 10,894 persons with T2DM in Taiwan and Taichung Diabetes Study, respectively, were included. SBP-CV, FPG-CV, and HbA1c-CV were significant predictors of stroke, CVD event or death, all-cause mortality, and expanded CVD mortality, whereas DBP-CV was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality and expanded and non-expanded CVD mortality. The joint effect of SBP, FPG, and HbA1c predicted the incidence of stroke and CVD event or death with increased risks of 16 %-35 %. In addition, the joint effect of SBP, DBP, FPG, and HbA1c was associated with all-cause and expanded CVD mortality with increased risks of 29 %-81 %.

CONCLUSIONS

The joint effect of BP and glucose variation improved the prediction of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Moreover, simultaneous measurement of visit-to-visit BP and glycemic variation may stratify persons with cardiovascular risks and may be regarded as important therapeutic goals in the care of T2DM.

Day-to-Day Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease in a General Japanese Population

Background Several longitudinal studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is associated with greater risk for developing chronic kidney disease. However, no population-based studies have investigated the association between day-to-day home blood pressure variability and incident chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results A total of 2342 Japanese community-dwelling residents aged ≥40 years without chronic kidney disease at baseline were followed up by annual health examinations for 10 years. Home blood pressure was measured 3 times every morning for 28 days. Day-to-day coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure levels were categorized into quintiles. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m² or the presence of proteinuria. The hazard ratios for developing chronic kidney disease were estimated with a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period, 772 participants developed chronic kidney disease. Increased coefficients of variation of home systolic blood pressure were associated significantly with higher risk of chronic kidney disease after adjusting for confounders (P for trend <0.001): Individuals in the highest quintile of coefficients of variation had a 1.50-fold (95% CI, 1.17-1.94) greater risk of developing chronic kidney disease than those in the lowest quintile. The combination of higher coefficients of variation and higher mean value of home systolic blood pressure was associated with the multivariable-adjusted risk of developing chronic kidney disease. Conclusions These findings suggest that increased day-to-day blood pressure variability is a significant risk factor for developing chronic kidney disease in a general Japanese population.

Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure Load and Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Standard measures of blood pressure (BP) do not account for both the magnitude and duration of exposure to elevated BP over time.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the association between cumulative systolic blood pressure (SBP) load and risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis of patients with type 2 diabetes followed by the ADVANCE-ON (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation - Observational Study). Cumulative SBP load was defined as the area under curve for SBP values ≥130 mm Hg divided by the area under curve for all measured SBP values over a 24-month exposure period. HRs for the association between cumulative SBP load with major cardiovascular events and death were estimated using Cox models.

RESULTS

Over a median 7.6 years of follow-up, 1,469 major cardiovascular events, 1,615 deaths, and 660 cardiovascular deaths were observed in 9,338 participants. Each 1-SD increase in cumulative SBP load was associated with a 14% increase in major cardiovascular events (HR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.09-1.20), 13% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.13-1.18), and 21% increase in cardiovascular death (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.13-1.29). For the prediction of cardiovascular events and death, cumulative SBP load outperformed mean SBP, time-below-target SBP, and visit-to-visit SBP variability in terms of Akaike information criterion and net reclassification indexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative SBP load may provide better prediction of major cardiovascular events compared with traditional BP measures among patients with type 2 diabetes. These findings reinforce the importance of both the magnitude and duration of exposure to elevated SBP in assessing cardiovascular risk. (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease Preterax and Diamicron MR Controlled Evaluation Post Trial Observational Study [ADVANCE-ON]; NCT00949286).

Blood pressure and its variability: classic and novel measurement techniques

Current hypertension guidelines recommend using the average values of several blood pressure (BP) readings obtained both in and out of the office for the diagnosis and management of hypertension. In-office BP measurement using an upper-arm cuff constitutes the evidence-based reference method for current BP classification and treatment targets. However, out-of-office BP evaluation using 24 h ambulatory or home BP monitoring is recommended by all major medical associations for obtaining further insights into the BP profile of an individual and how it relates to their daily activities. Importantly, the highly variable nature of office and out-of-office BP readings has been widely acknowledged, including the association of BP variability with cardiovascular outcomes. However, to date, the implications of BP variability on cardiovascular outcomes have largely been ignored, with limited application in clinical practice. Novel cuffless wearable technologies might provide a detailed assessment of the 24 h BP profile and behaviour over weeks or months. These devices offer many advantages for researchers and patients compared with traditional BP monitors, but their accuracy and utility remain uncertain. In this Review, we outline and compare conventional and novel methods and techniques for assessing average BP levels and BP variability, and reflect on the utility and potential of these methods for improving the treatment and management of patients with hypertension.

The most commonly available blood pressure (BP) monitoring devices are useful for capturing a snapshot BP value, but most have limited utility in measuring BP variability. In this Review, Schutte and colleagues outline the advantages and disadvantages of conventional and novel techniques to measure average BP levels and BP variability.

Although the dynamic nature of blood pressure (BP) is well-known, hypertension guidelines recommend using the average values of static BP readings (office or out-of-office), specifically aiming to level the fluctuations and peaks in BP readings.

All current BP measurement methods have imperfect reproducibility owing to the continuous fluctuation in BP readings, making it difficult to accurately diagnose hypertension.

Accumulating evidence from clinical trials, large registries and meta-analyses shows that increased BP variability predicts cardiovascular outcome, independently of the average BP values.

To date, BP variability is overlooked, with limited application in clinical practice, probably owing to a variety of complex non-standardized BP variability assessment methods and indices, and uncertain thresholds and clinical usefulness.

Novel cuffless wearable BP technologies can provide very large numbers of readings for days and months without the discomfort of traditional BP monitoring devices, and have the potential to replace current BP methods, once accuracy issues are resolved and their clinical usefulness is proved.

Effect of blood pressure trajectory and variability on new-onset chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of BP trajectory and variability on chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence in patients with type 2 diabetes. This retrospective longitudinal study included 4,560 participants with type 2 diabetes, aged ≥30 years, free of CKD, with ≥3 years of follow-up, and who attended the Diabetes Care Management Program in 2001-2013. The follow-up period ended in 2016. The adverse outcome was a new-onset CKD event, which was determined using eGFR and albuminuria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations. At the end of the follow-up, 1255 participants had developed CKD, with a mean follow-up of 4.3 ± 3.2 years. Three trajectory subgroups of BP, i.e., Cluster 1: "moderate-stable" for SBP and "moderate-downward" for DBP, Cluster 2: "low-upward-downward" for both SBP and DBP, and Cluster 3: "high-downward-upward" for both SBP and DBP, were generated. The BP variability was grouped into three classes on the basis of tertiles. For the BP trajectory, patients in Cluster 3 of DBP had a higher CKD risk than those in Cluster 1 (HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03-1.50). For the BP variability, patients in Tertile 3 had a significantly higher CKD risk than those in Tertile 1 (SBP: 1.28, 1.11-1.47; DBP: 1.17, 1.02-1.34). Persons with type 2 diabetes who achieved a small reduction in DBP after participating in the education program but rebounded and those who had the highest variation in both SBP and DBP faced the highest increase in CKD risk.

Effectiveness and economic impact of a diabetes education program among adults with type 2 diabetes in South Texas

BACKGROUND

The long-term growth and sustained high prevalence of obesity in the US is likely to increase the burden of Type 2 diabetes. Hispanic individuals are particularly burdened by a larger share of diabetes than non-Hispanic White individuals. Given the existing health disparities facing this population, we aimed to examine the effectiveness and potential cost savings of the Diabetes Education Program (DEP) offered as part of Healthy South Texas, a state-legislated initiative to reduce health disparities in 27 counties in South Texas with a high proportion of Hispanic adults.

METHODS

DEP is an 8-h interactive workshop taught in English and Spanish. After the workshop, participants receive quarterly biometric screenings and continuing education with a health educator for one year. Data were analyzed from 3859 DEP participants with Type 2 diabetes living in South Texas at five time points (baseline, 3-months, 6-months, 9-months, 12-months). The primary outcome variable of interest for study analyses was A1c. A series of independent sample t-tests and linear mixed-model regression analyses were used to identify changes over time. Two methods were then applied to estimate healthcare costs savings associated with A1c reductions among participants.

RESULTS

The majority of participants were ages 45-64 years (58%), female (60%), Hispanic (66%), and had a high school education or less (75%). At baseline, the average hemoglobin A1c was 8.57%. The most substantial reductions in hemoglobin A1c were identified from baseline to 3-month follow-up (P < 0.001); however, the reduction in A1c remained significant from baseline to 12-month follow-up (P < 0.001). The healthcare cost savings associated with improved A1c for the program was estimated to be between $5.3 to $5.6 million over a two to three year period.

CONCLUSION

Findings support the effectiveness of DEP with ongoing follow-up for sustained diabetes risk management. While such interventions foster clinical-community collaboration and can improve patient adherence to recommended lifestyle behaviors, opportunities exist to complement DEP with other resources and services to enhance program benefits. Policy makers and other key stakeholders can assess the lessons learned in this effort to tailor and expand similar initiatives to potentially at-risk populations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This community-based intervention is not considered a trial by ICMJE definitions, and has not be registered as such.

Age-Specific Associations of Usual Blood Pressure Variability With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: 10-Year Diabetes Mellitus Cohort Study

Background

The detrimental effects of increased variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk in patients with diabetes mellitus remains unclear. This study evaluated age‐specific association of usual SBP visit‐to‐visit variability with CVD and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Methods and Results

A retrospective cohort study investigated 155 982 patients with diabetes mellitus aged 45 to 84 years without CVD at baseline (2008–2010). Usual SBP variability was estimated using SBP SD obtained from a mixed‐effects model. Age‐specific associations (45–54, 55–64, 65–74, 75–84 years) between usual SBP variability, CVD, and mortality risk were assessed by Cox regression adjusted for patient characteristics. After a median follow‐up of 9.7 years, 49 816 events (including 34 039 CVD events and 29 211 mortalities) were identified. Elevated SBP variability was independently, positively, and log‐linearly associated with higher CVD and mortality risk among all age groups, with no evidence of any threshold effects. The excess CVD and mortality risk per 5 mm Hg increase in SBP variability within the 45 to 54 age group is >3 times higher than the 70 to 79 age group (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.49–1.85 versus hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15–1.23). The significant associations remained consistent among all subgroups. Patients with younger age had a higher association of SBP variability with event outcomes.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that SBP visit‐to‐visit variability was strongly associated with CVD and mortality with no evidence of a threshold effect in a population with diabetes mellitus. As well as controlling overall blood pressure levels, SBP visit‐to‐visit variability should be monitored and evaluated in routine practice, in particular for younger patients.

Long-Term Variability of Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Mortality: The Look AHEAD Study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the associations of visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and deaths in adults with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We analyzed 4,152 participants in Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) free of CVD events and deaths during the first 36 months of follow-up. Variability of systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) across 4 annual visits was assessed using the intraindividual SD, variation independent of the mean, and coefficient of variation. Cox regression was used to generate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD (myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, or CVD-related deaths) and mortality.

RESULTS

Over a median of 6.6 years, there were 220 MIs, 105 stroke cases, 62 CVD-related deaths, and 236 deaths. After adjustment for confounders including average BP, the aHRs for the highest (vs. lowest) tertile of SD of SBP were 1.98 (95% CI 1.01-3.92), 1.25 (95% CI 0.90-1.72), 1.26 (95% CI 0.96-1.64), 1.05 (95% CI 0.75-1.46), and 1.64 (95% CI 0.99-2.72) for CVD mortality, all-cause mortality, CVD, MI, and stroke, respectively. The equivalent aHRs for SD of DBP were 1.84 (95% CI 0.98-3.48), 1.43 (95% CI 1.03-1.98), 1.19 (95% CI 0.91-1.56), 1.14 (95% CI 0.82-1.58), and 0.97 (95% CI 0.58-1.60), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large sample of individuals with type 2 diabetes, a greater variability in SBP was associated with higher cardiovascular mortality and CVD events; a higher variability in DBP was linked to increased overall and cardiovascular mortality.

Impact of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability on hypertensive-mediated target organ damage and future cardiovascular events: the Campania salute network

BACKGROUND

Exaggerated variability of blood pressure (BP) poses additional stress on cardiovascular system independent of BP average value, increasing risk of target organ damage (HMOD) and cardiovascular events. We assessed the impact of visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of BP on development of cardiovascular events and HMOD.

METHODS

Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variability of mean SBP and DBP were calculated in 3555 patients from the Campania Salute Network registry, with available echocardiogram and more than six visits during follow-up. Values from the first visit were excluded. The impact of VVV of BP on cardiovascular events, and mediation of HMOD were assessed at final visit.

RESULTS

Mean number of visits was 11 ± 6 with mean interval between visits of 9.1 ± 3.7 months. Mean visit-to-visit SD during follow-up was 13 ± 5 for systolic and 8 ± 3 mmHg for DBP; coefficients of variability were 9.7 ± 3.5 and of 9.6 ± 3.2, respectively. In multivariable analysis, left ventricular mass at follow-up was correlated with systolic VVV of BP independently of significant effect of age, BMI, mean SBP during follow-up and initial left ventricular mass. Follow-up GFR was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic VVV, independently of significant effect of age, mean glucose and SBP during follow-up, and initial GFR. In Cox regression, high VVV of BP was also associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.06, P = 0.015), independently of significant effect of HMOD.

CONCLUSION

VVV is associated with prevalent HMOD and development of cardiovascular events, independently of mean BP value during follow-up and HMOD.

Variability of risk factors and diabetes complications

Several studies suggest that, together with glucose variability, the variability of other risk factors, as blood pressure, plasma lipids, heart rate, body weight, and serum uric acid, might play a role in the development of diabetes complications. Moreover, the variability of each risk factor, when contemporarily present, may have additive effects. However, the question is whether variability is causal or a marker. Evidence shows that the quality of care and the attainment of the target impact on the variability of all risk factors. On the other hand, for some of them causality may be considered. Although specific studies are still lacking, it should be useful checking the variability of a risk factor, together with its magnitude out of the normal range, in clinical practice. This can lead to an improvement of the quality of care, which, in turn, could further hesitate in an improvement of risk factors variability.

Predictive value of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability for cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease with and without diabetes mellitus

Background

High blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) has recently been shown to predict cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the predictive value of BPV for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

Patients with stable CAD were enrolled and monitored for new MACE. Visit-to-visit BPV was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of systolic and diastolic BP across clinic visits. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association of BPV with MACE. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess its predictive ability.

Results

Among 1140 Chinese patients with stable CAD, 192 (17%) experienced a new MACE. In multivariable analyses, the risk of MACE was significantly associated with CV of systolic BP (odds ratio [OR] for highest versus lowest quartile, 3.30; 95% CI 1.97–5.54), and diastolic BP (OR for highest versus lowest quartile, 2.39; 95% CI 1.39–4.11), after adjustment for variables of the risk factor model (age, gender, T2DM, hypertension, antihypertensive agents, number of BP measurements) and mean BP. The risk factor model had an AUC of 0.70 for prediction of MACE. Adding systolic/diastolic CV into the risk factor model with mean BP significantly increased the AUC to 0.73/0.72 (P = 0.002/0.007). In subgroup analyses, higher CV of systolic BP remained significantly associated with an increased risk for MACE in patients with and without T2DM, whereas the association of CV of diastolic BP with MACE was observed only in those without T2DM.

Conclusions

Visit-to-visit variability of systolic BP and of diastolic BP was an independent predictor of new MACE and provided incremental prognostic value beyond mean BP and conventional risk factors in patients with stable CAD. The association of BPV in CAD patients without T2DM with subsequent risk for MACE was stronger than in those with T2DM.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01280-z.

School-based surveillance on visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and high blood pressure in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND

The predictive importance of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (VVV) for high blood pressure (HBP) in a pediatric population has been largely unsettled. We aimed to evaluate it based on Health Promotion Program for Children and Adolescents (HPPCA), a school-based surveillance conducted from 2012 to 2018 in Suzhou, China.

METHODS

A total of 330,618 participants had BP measurement in 2018 and ≥ 3 BP records during 2012-2017, were recruited from HPPCA. Absolute BP values (in mmHg) were converted into age-, sex- and height- normalized z-scores. VVV was expressed as standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV) or average real variability (ARV) of BP z-scores during 2012-2017. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between VVV and HBP in 2018.

RESULTS

In 2018, 42,554 (12.87%) subjects were defined as HBP. VVV, except for SBP-CV and DBP-CV, was significantly higher in the HBP group than normotensives group. After adjusting for covariates including mean BP values from 2012 to 2017, SBP-SD, SBP-ARV, DBP-SD and DBP-ARV, increased the risk of HBP by 5.70 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5.54-5.87], 4.10 (95% CI 4.01-4.20), 4.70 (95% CI 4.50-4.90) and 3.39 (95% CI 3.28-3.50) times, respectively. Notably, SBP-SD significantly improved risk discrimination of HBP based on other risk variables (c-statistics, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement significantly increased).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher SD or ARV of BP, was independently related with higher probability of HBP in Chinese pediatric population. SBP-SD could be potentially helpful for detecting HBP. Future researches investigating the predictive value of VVV are warrant.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and sleep architecture

Visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Sleep architecture characterizes the distribution of different stages of sleep and may be important in CVD development. We examined the association between visit-to-visit BPV and sleep architecture using in-lab polysomnographic data from 3,565 patients referred to an academic sleep center. BPV was calculated using the intra-individual coefficient of variation of BP measures collected 12 months before the sleep study. We conducted multiple linear regression analyses to assess the association of systolic and diastolic BPV with sleep architecture-rapid eye movement (REM) and non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep duration. Our results show that systolic BPV was inversely associated with REM sleep duration (p = .058). When patients were divided into tertile groups based on their BPV, those in the third tertile (highest variability) spent 2.7 fewer minutes in REM sleep than those in the first tertile (lowest variability, p = .032), after adjusting for covariates. We did not find an association of systolic BPV with other measures of sleep architecture. Diastolic BPV was not associated with sleep architecture either. In summary, our study showed that greater systolic BPV was associated with lower REM sleep duration. Future investigation is warranted to clarify the directionality, mechanism, and therapeutic implications.

Association of Blood Pressure Variability and Diuretics With Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Stages 1-5

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with cardiovascular events in the general population. Data are scarce in chronic kidney disease. We hypothesized that BPV would be associated with cardiovascular outcomes, death, and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and that diuretics would modify these associations in patients with chronic kidney disease. We studied US Veterans with nondialysis chronic kidney disease stages 1-5 and hypertension on nondiuretic antihypertensive monotherapy. At the time of second antihypertensive agent prescription, we propensity-matched for exposure to a loop or thiazide diuretic versus any other antihypertensive. BPV was defined as the coefficient of variation of systolic blood pressure over 6 months after second agent prescription. Cox proportional hazards regression measured associations of BPV with a primary cardiovascular event composite (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke; heart failure hospitalization). Secondary outcomes included all-cause death, each primary outcome component, end-stage kidney disease, and cardiovascular death. There were 31 394 participants in each group. BPV was associated with composite cardiovascular events, hazard ratio (95% CI) at second, third, fourth, and fifth versus first quintile: 1.79 (1.53-2.11), 2.32 (1.99-2.71), 2.60 (2.24-3.02), and 3.12 (2.68-3.62). Diuretics attenuated associations between the fourth and fifth BPV quintiles with composite events (P_interaction=0.03 and 0.04, respectively). BPV was associated with all secondary outcomes except end-stage kidney disease, with no diuretic interactions. BPV was associated with cardiovascular events and death but not end-stage kidney disease in patients with chronic kidney disease, with attenuated associations with cardiovascular events in the diuretic-treated group at high BPV quintiles. Future studies should investigate whether other antihypertensive classes modify these risks.

Hypertension Management in Emergency Departments

BACKGROUND

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is pervasive among patients that visit emergency departments (EDs) for their care.

METHODS

In this review article, we outline the current approach to the management of these individuals and highlight the crucial role emergency medicine clinicians play in reducing the morbidity associated with elevated BP.

RESULTS

We highlight the critical importance of immediate treatment when elevated BP contributes to new or worsening end-organ injury but emphasize that such hypertensive emergencies are rare. For the vast majority of patients with elevated BP in the ED who do not have new or worsening end-organ injury from elevated BP, immediate BP reduction within the ED is not recommended or safe. Nonetheless, within weeks after an ED visit, there is a pressing need to improve the care of patients with elevated or previously undiagnosed hypertension. For many, it may be their only regular point of engagement with the healthcare system. To address this, we present novel perspectives that envision a new role for emergency medicine in chronic hypertension management-one that acknowledges the significant population-level gaps in BP control that contribute to disparities in cardiovascular disease and sets the stage for future changes in systems-based practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency medicine plays a key and evolving role in reducing morbidity associated with elevated BP.

Prognostic importance of long-term SBP variability in high-risk hypertension

OBJECTIVE

In addition to high blood pressure variability (BPV), low BPV was associated with adverse cardiovascular prognosis in selected high-risk patients. We explored this issue in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) using a nonlinear approach with BPV as a continuous variable.

METHODS

Long-term systolic BPV (SBPV) (coefficient of variation, CoV %) was calculated on quarterly visits until a fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular event or all-cause mortality, excluding titration period and patients with missing visits. We used Cox proportional hazard models with penalized smoothing splines to shape the risk of outcomes against the continuum of SBPV (independent variable). Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR, 95% CI) were calculated using the reference range derived from the nonlinear model. Sensitivity analysis based on propensity score matching (PSM) was performed.

RESULTS

The association of SBPV with fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular events was J-shaped, whereas that with all-cause mortality was linear. After multivariate adjustment, however, the only significant associations remained that of low SBPV (CoV <5%) with cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75, P = 0.003), and of high SBPV (CoV >10%) with the composite of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.80; P = 0.037). Low SBPV was associated with ischemic heart disease (hazard ratio 2.76, 95% CI 1.55-4.91; P < 0.001). There was a significant U-shaped association of SBPV with cardiovascular events in the PSM cohort.

CONCLUSION

Nonlinear modeling indicates that low and high long-term SBPV have prognostic relevance in high-risk hypertensive individuals from SPRINT. Randomized trials are needed to test these findings and their potential therapeutic implications.

Hypertension and diabetes mellitus: highlights of a complex relationship

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Herein, we provide a review of the recent literature on the epidemiological and pathophysiological relationship between hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus, along with prognostic implications and current treatment concepts.

RECENT FINDINGS

Diabetes mellitus affects ∼10% of US adults. The prevalence of HTN in adults with diabetes mellitus was 76.3% or 66.0% based on the definitions used by guidelines. There exist differences among major society guidelines regarding the definition of HTN and target blood pressure (BP) levels. Recent basic and clinical research studies have shed light on pathophysiologic and genetic links between HTN and diabetes mellitus. Randomized controlled trials over the past 5 years have confirmed the favorable BP and cardiovascular risk reduction by antidiabetic agents.

SUMMARY

HTN and diabetes mellitus are 'silent killers' with rising global prevalence. The development of HTN and diabetes mellitus tracks each other over time. The coexistence of both clinical entities synergistically contributes to micro- and macro-vasculopathy along with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Various shared mechanisms underlie the pathophysiological relationship between HTN and diabetes mellitus. Moreover, BP reduction with lifestyle interventions and antihypertensive agents is a primary target for reducing cardiovascular risk among patients with HTN and diabetes mellitus.

Blood Pressure Changes in a Chinese Population Have a Greater Impact on Short-Term Outcomes Rather Than Long-Term Outcomes of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

The purpose of our study was to explore the association of blood pressure (BP) changes on short-and long-term outcomes of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in rural China. This study was designed to learn the effects of BP changes (2004-2008) on short-term (2008-2010, within 2 years of the initial examination) and long-term (2008-2017) outcomes of MACE, including 24 285 and 27 290 participants, respectively. In this study, 423 (short-term) and 1952 (long-term) MACEs were identified. For prehypertension to hypertension, the risk of long-term stroke was increased (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18 [1.00-1.39]). For hypertension to prehypertension, the short-term MACE risk (0.65 [0.47-0.90]), short-term stroke risk (0.45 [0.26-0.76]), and long-term stroke risk (0.83 [0.70-0.99]) all decreased. Short-term outcomes conferred a stronger impact than long-term outcomes (Fisher Z test, measured as the difference of β coefficients, all P < .05).

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and risk of adverse birth outcomes in pregnancies in East China

To investigate the potential associations between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (VVV) and adverse birth outcomes in pregnancies, 48,209 pregnant women without proteinuria or chronic hypertension before 20 weeks of gestation who delivered live singletons between January 2014 and November 2019 in Taizhou or Taicang cities were recruited. VVV was estimated as the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of blood pressure [i.e., systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP)] measured from 20 weeks of gestation onwards. Pregnant women were classified into four groups according to the corresponding quartiles for each VVV index. It was found that VVV was significantly higher in women with small for gestational age (SGA) or low birth weight (LBW) infants than in their counterparts. Graded associations between VVV categories and poor birth outcomes were observed. In particular, when comparing the women with the highest to the lowest quartiles of standard deviation and coefficient variation of DBP, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for SGA was 1.15 (1.06-1.26) and 1.14 (1.05-1.25), respectively. Interestingly, the addition of DBP-VVV to established risk factors improved risk prediction of SGA; DBP-VVV demonstrated modestly superior predictive performance to VVV obtained from SBP or MAP. Similar results were found even among normotensive pregnancies. Our findings indicated that VVV during pregnancy, especially DBP-VVV, was independently associated with poor birth outcomes of pregnancies in East China. The inclusion of DBP-VVV with established risk factors may help in identifying pregnancies at high risk of SGA. Validations are needed.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and risk of chronic kidney disease: A systematic review and meta-analyses

Objective

Previous studies have shown that visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the results have not been consistent among studies. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to comprehensively assess the association between visit-to-visit BPV and the risk of CKD.

Methods

Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched from the date of inception through 1 August 2019 using the terms “blood pressure variability,” “chronic kidney disease,” “nephropathy,” and other comparable terms. The primary outcome was the development of CKD. Two reviewers extracted the data independently. Meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model.

Results

Fourteen studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The risk of CKD was significantly greater in patients with high baseline systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) than in patients with low baseline SBPV: the standard deviation (SD) showed relative risk (RR) of 1.69 and 95% CI of 1.38–2.08, the coefficient of variation (CV) showed RR of 1.23 and 95% CI of 1.12–1.36, and variance independent of mean (VIM) showed RR of 1.40 and 95% CI of 1.15–1.71. RRs for each unit increase in visit-to-visit SBPV and risk of CKD were 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03–1.07) for SD, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.09) for CV, and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.96–1.25) for VIM. Diastolic BPV was similarly predictive of CKD based on SD and CV.

Conclusions

Increased visit-to-visit BPV might be an independent risk factor for CKD. However, significant heterogeneity was present; thus, future prospective studies are needed to confirm our findings. Our results indicate that treatment of hypertension should control blood pressure levels and prevent abnormal fluctuations in blood pressure to reduce the risk of CKD.

Prognostic importance of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability for micro- and macrovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: The Rio de Janeiro Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The prognostic importance of an increased visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BP-VVV) for the future development of micro- and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes has been scarcely investigated and is largely unsettled. We aimed to evaluate it in a prospective long-term follow-up study with 632 individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

BP-VVV parameters (systolic and diastolic standard deviations [SD] and variation coefficients) were measured during the first 24-months. Multivariate Cox analysis, adjusted for risk factors and mean BP levels, examined the associations between BP-VVV and the occurrence of microvascular (retinopathy, microalbuminuria, renal function deterioration, peripheral neuropathy) and macrovascular complications (total cardiovascular events [CVEs], major adverse CVEs [MACE] and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality). Improvement in risk discrimination was assessed by the C-statistic and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 11.3 years, 162 patients had a CVE (132 MACE), and 212 patients died (95 from cardiovascular diseases); 153 newly-developed or worsened diabetic retinopathy, 193 achieved the renal composite outcome (121 newly-developed microalbuminuria and 95 deteriorated renal function), and 171 newly-developed or worsened peripheral neuropathy. Systolic BP-VVV was an independent predictor of MACE (hazard ratio: 1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.51 for a 1-SD increase in 24-month SD), but not of total CVEs, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, and of any microvascular outcome. However, no BP-VVV parameter significantly improved cardiovascular risk discrimination (increase in C-statistic 0.001, relative IDI 0.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Systolic BP-VVV was an independent predictor of MACE, but it did not improve cardiovascular risk stratification. The goal of anti-hypertensive treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes shall remain in controlling mean BP levels, not on decreasing their visit-to-visit variability.

Observational analyses from ADVANCE and ADVANCE-ON

AIMS

To explain, and document, the epidemiological work associated with the action in diabetes and vascular disease: preterax and diamicron-modified release controlled evaluation (ADVANCE) clinical trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

ADVANCE was designed as a randomized controlled multicentre factorial trial in high-risk patients with diabetes. The two interventions were blood pressure lowering medications versus placebo, and intensive glucose control versus standard glucose control. Following termination of the trial, an observational study of surviving participants, able to join, was mounted: the ADVANCE - observational study (ADVANCE-ON). Other epidemiological analyses that were undertaken treated the trial as a cohort study, including using biomarkers from the blood samples taken from ADVANCE subjects as risk exposures.

RESULTS

More than 50 publications have reported epidemiological results from ADVANCE. The main results from ADVANCE-ON suggested attenuated benefits of ADVANCE's blood pressure lowering treatment on all-cause and cardiovascular death, but no such long-term benefits for intensive glucose control, although this did give persistent benefit for end-stage renal disease. The other epidemiological studies found, amongst other things, strong effects of NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on macrovascular events, microvascular events and all-cause death.

CONCLUSIONS

Embedding post-randomization and epidemiological analyses into clinical trials is worthwhile and can be highly productive in advancing scientific knowledge.

Association between blood pressure variability, cardiovascular disease and mortality in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To investigate the associations of blood pressure variability (BPV), expressed as long-term (visit-to-visit) and short-term (ambulatory blood pressure monitoring [ABPM] and home blood pressure monitoring [HBPM]) and all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), extended MACEs, microvascular complications (MiCs) and hypertension-mediated organ damage (HMOD) in adult patients with type 2 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and grey literature databases were searched for studies including patients with type 2 diabetes, at least one variable of BPV (visit-to-visit, HBPM, ABPM) and evaluation of the incidence of at least one of the following outcomes: all-cause mortality, MACEs, extended MACEs and/or MiCs and/or HMOD. The extracted information was analyzed using random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

Data from a total of 377 305 patients were analyzed. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21), MACEs (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.04-1.17), extended MACEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11) and MiCs (HR 1. 12, 95% CI 1.01-1.24), while diastolic blood pressure was not. Associations were mainly driven from studies on long-term SBP variability. Qualitative analysis showed that BPV was associated with the presence of HMOD expressed as carotid intima-media thickness, pulse wave velocity and left ventricular hypertrophy. Results were independent of mean blood pressure, glycaemic control and serum creatinine levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that BPV might provide additional information rather than mean blood pressure on the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Short- and long-term systolic blood pressure changes have different impacts on major adverse cardiovascular events: Results from a 12.5 years follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Systolic blood pressure increased in middle-aged person contributes significantly to the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Meanwhile, different patterns (short- or long-term change) of SBP increase may result in differential risk and lead to differences in predictive ability.

METHODS

A total of 19,544 and 22,610 participants in the Fuxin Cardiovascular Cohort Study underwent measurement of SBP at 2 examinations for short- and long-term change study population. Cox proportional hazards models were used to relate future clinical outcomes with change in SBP.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 12.5 years, 1064 (772 stroke, 247 myocardial infarction, 528 CVD deaths) and 1316 (958 stroke, 301 myocardial infarction, 660 CVD deaths) MACE were identified during short- and long-terms SBP change, respectively. For SBP increased participants, short-term change in SBP was associated with future MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.241 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.146-1.344; P < 0.001), long-term change in SBP (HR: 1.218; 95% CI: 1.123-1.322; P < 0.001). For prehypertension participants, long-term changes conferred a strong impact than short-term. For hypertensive participants, short-term changes conferred a strong impact than long-term.

CONCLUSIONS

Having a SBP rise in short- or long-term both confer an increased risk of MACE and its subgroups. Furthermore, short- and long-term SBP increase patterns adds different additional information beyond one single baseline examination. Change in SBP may be a prognostic surrogate marker and future studies are needed to clarify the possible mechanism for predicting MACE.

Association between body mass index changes and short- and long-term outcomes of hypertension in a Chinese rural cohort study

This study aimed to investigate the effect of body mass index (BMI) changes on hypertension among rural areas of China. A population-based sample of 13,263 and 5944 rural Chinese people aged ≥35 years and without hypertension at baseline was included in our analysis of BMI changes (from (2004-2006) to 2008) and short- and long-term outcomes of hypertension (from 2008 to 2010 and 2010 to 2017). The participants were divided into four groups by a comprehensive cross-sectional combination according to baseline BMI (18.5-24 vs. ≥24 kg/m²) and follow-up changes (decreased vs. increased). Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). During a median follow-up period of 4.8 (short-term) and 11.7 (long-term) years, 2299 (17.33%) and 2020 (33.98%) participants developed hypertension, respectively. For participants with a baseline BMI ≥ 24 kg/m², when BMI decreased in follow-ups, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) of short-term hypertension were 0.898 (0.857-0.942). For baseline 18.5 kg/m² ≤ BMI < 24 kg/m², when BMI increased in follow-ups, the risks of short-term hypertension were 1.103 (1.068-1.139). We detected that BMI changes had a lower impact on the incidence of hypertension in long-term than short-term. Our study indicated that BMI changes were significantly associated with the incidence of hypertension for the short-term, and it had a stronger impact on short-term outcomes than long-term. Managing weight by lifestyle modification was particularly important for the primary prevention of hypertension in rural Chinese population.

Short-term blood pressure changes have a more strong impact on stroke and its subtypes than long-term blood pressure changes

Background

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is closely related to stroke and its subtypes. However, different time periods changes in BP may result in differential risk of stroke.

Hypothesis

Short‐term blood pressure changes have a more strong impact on stroke and its subtypes than long‐term blood pressure changes.

Methods

We designed the study on the effects of short‐ (2008‐2010) and long‐term (2004‐2010) BP changes on stroke events (2011‐2017), including 22 842 and 28 456 subjects, respectively. The difference in β coefficients between short‐ and long‐term BP changes on the effects of stroke were examined using the Fisher Z test.

Results

During a median 12.5‐year follow‐up period, 1014 and 1505 strokes occurred in short‐ and long‐term groups. In short‐term group, going from prehypertension to hypertension, the risk of stroke events increased (stroke: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.537 [1.248‐1.894], ischemic stroke: 1.456 [1.134‐1.870] and hemorrhagic stroke: 1.630 [1.099‐2.415]); going from hypertension to prehypertension, the risk of stroke events decreased (stroke:0.757 [0.619‐0.927] and hemorrhagic stroke:0.569 [0.388‐0.835]). Similarly, in long‐term group, going from prehypertension to hypertension, individuals had an increased risk of stroke (1.291, 1.062‐1.569) and hemorrhagic stroke (1.818, 1.261‐2.623); going from hypertension to prehypertension, participants had a decreased risk of stroke (0.825, 0.707‐0.963) and hemorrhagic stroke (0.777, 0.575‐0.949). Furthermore, the effects of BP changes during short‐term period on stroke events were greater than that in long‐term period.

Conclusions

Short‐ and long‐terms BP changes were both associated with the risk of stroke events. Furthermore, short‐term BP changes had a stronger impact than did long‐term changes on risk of stroke events.

Prognostic value of visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability related to diabetic kidney disease among patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of blood pressure on the risk of diabetic nephropathy and whether it provides additional predictive information among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China.

METHODS

We included 12 630 T2DM patients during January 2008-December 2012 using a retrospective cohort design. VVV of SBP was assessed as standard deviation, coefficient of variation and variation independent of mean of the blood pressure readings during the measurement period. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the associations of variability in SBP with risk of diabetes nephropathy by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Risk prediction ability was assessed using C statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

We found a dose-response relationship across quartiles of VVV SBP (P trend < 0.001). Hazard ratio in the highest quartile of SD SBP (≥9.2 mmHg) was 1.49 (1.16-1.93) as compared with the lowest quartile (<4.8 mmHg) after adjusted for mean SBP values, max SBP values and other covariates. Addition of SD SBP significantly improved risk prediction for diabetic kidney disease (DKD) [C statistic (from 0.664 to 0.673), IDI (0.0011, 95% CI: 0.0003-0.0104) and NRI (0.053, 95% CI: 0.0017-0.113)]. Results remained similar across different subgroups, sensitivity analyses or using coefficient of variation and variance independent of mean.

CONCLUSION

VVV of SBP is a significant risk factor of DKD among T2DM patients on top of mean and max BP values, which provides additional significant predictive information.

Gender Difference of the Relationship between Arterial Stiffness and Blood Pressure Variability in Participants in Prehypertension

Aim. The association of pressure load with elasticity in vascular system has not been studied fully. We proposed a hypothesis whether gender could modify the association of blood pressure variability (BPV) and arterial stiffness assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) in prehypertensive patients. Methods. 24h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (24h-ABPM) and CF-PWV were measured in 723 participants with prehypertension. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses of these clinical and biological parameters were performed in total population, male and female. Results. A total of 723 participants (mean age 59.76 ± 12.37years, male 329 and female 394) were enrolled into the study. Compared with female, body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), uric acid (UA), and homocysteine (HCY) were significantly higher (all p < 0.05). Arterial stiffness (CF-PWV, male versus female, 10.89 ± 2.50 versus 10.33 ± 2.13 m/s, p=0.004) and BPVs (male versus female, 24 h SBPV 13.2 ± 5.11 versus 13.03 ± 5.20; 24 h DBPV 10.34 ± 3.87 versus 9.64 ± 3.59; N SBPV 11.90 ± 6.60 versus 10.94 ± 4.79; N DBPV 9.64 ± 5.87 versus 8.20 ± 4.48, all p<0.05) were higher in male. Multivariable linear regression analysis showed that 24 h BPV were linearly and positively related to CF-PWV in total population (24h SBPV, B=0.033; 24 h DBPV, B=0.035, both P<0.05) and female (24h SBPV, B=0.041; 24h DBPV, B=0.067, both P<0.05) independent of traditional risk factors and medications. Conclusion. BPV was independently associated with arterial stiffness in total population and the relation was modified by gender. 24 h BPVs in prehypertensive patients were useful to identify the early arterial stiffness. Clinical Trials Registration. This trial was registered with Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT02569268.

Association of Visit-to-Visit Variability of Blood Pressure with Cardiovascular Disease among Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence has shown that visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of blood pressure (BP) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of VVV of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) on the risk of CVD among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 10,163 T2DM patients who were not previously diagnosed with CVD from January 2008 to December 2012 in Ningbo, China. The VVV of BP was calculated using five metrics, including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), variation independent of mean, average real variability, and successive variability (SV) of measurements, obtained over a 24-month measurement period. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models for the associations of variability in BP with risk of CVD.

RESULTS

A total of 894 CVD events were observed during a median follow-up of 49.5 months. The hazard ratio in the highest quintile of SD of SBP was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.52) compared with patients in the lowest quintile. The association between higher VVV of DBP and risk of CVD was not consistent across different metrics and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Higher VVV of SBP was associated with an increased risk of CVD, irrespective of the mean SBP level. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Long-term blood pressure variability and development of chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Long-term visit-to-visit SBP variability (VVV) has been shown to predict cerebro-cardiovascular events and end-stage renal disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Whether SBP VVV is also a predictor of CKD development in diabetes is currently uncertain. We assessed the role of SBP VVV on the development of CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension in real life.

METHODS

Clinical records from 30 851 patients with T2D and hypertension, with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and regular visits during a 4-year follow-up were analyzed. SBP variability was measured by three metrics: coefficient of variation; SD of the mean SBP and average absolute difference of successive values in each individual. CKD was defined as eGFR less than 60 and/or a reduction in eGFR at least 30% from baseline.

RESULTS

Over the 4-year follow-up, 9.7% developed eGFR less than 60 and 4.5% an eGFR reduction at least 30% from baseline. Several clinical characteristics (older age, male sex, SBP, DBP, albuminuria, glycated hemoglobin, insulin treatment) were related to intraindividual SBP variability. Patients with VVV in the upper quintile showed an increased risk of developing both components of CKD [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.21, P < 0.001 and 1.32, P < 0.001, respectively]. The multivariable adjusted ORs of SBP coefficient of variation quintiles 2-5 for the incidence of CKD were incrementally higher (OR 1.04, P = 0.601, OR 1.05, P = 0.520, OR 1.21, P < 0.017 and OR 1.42, P < 0.001 as compared with the first quintile).

CONCLUSION

Increased long-term BP variability predicts CKD in patients with T2D and hypertension.

Is there an association between non-dipping blood pressure and measures of glucose variability in type 1 diabetes?

AIM

To assess the relationship between glucose variability (GV) and non-dipping of blood pressure (BP) as a marker of cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN) among patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D).

METHODS

Forty-one subjects with T1D (age 34 ± 13 years, duration 13 ± 6 years, HbA1c 8 ± 1.2%) without cardiovascular disease, dyslipidemia, or hypertension at baseline were enrolled in a 3-year observational cohort study. Subjects were phenotyped for CAN with heart rate variability, cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests, and 24-h BP profiles at baseline and during follow-up. Non-dipping was defined as nocturnal systolic and diastolic BP fall of ≤10%. Reverse dipping BP was defined as a <0% change in the day to night for systolic and diastolic BP. Indices of GV were derived from 5-day continuous glucose monitoring obtained at 3-month intervals, and serum inflammatory biomarkers in all subjects.

RESULTS

At baseline 10% of the T1D subjects were non-dippers. The dippers and non-dippers were similar in age, diabetes duration, glucose control, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, GV and inflammatory markers. No significant correlations were found at baseline between non-dipping nocturnal blood pressure and measures of GV. At 3 years there were no differences in risk factor profile of subjects who were non-dippers over time (progressors) and those who were dippers (non-progressors).

CONCLUSION

In a cohort of contemporary patients with T1D following the current standard of care in diabetes, the prevalence of non-dipping is relatively low. There were no clear phenotypes that explained the difference in the risk for non-dipping, including GV. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring could be used as a tool for improved CVD risk stratification and development of therapeutic interventions in these patients.