Circulating Total Bilirubin and Future Risk of Hypertension in the General Population: The Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) Prospective Study and a Mendelian Randomization Approach

Alcohol Consumption, High-Density Lipoprotein Particles and Subspecies, and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Findings from the PREVEND Prospective Study

The associations of HDL particle (HDL-P) and subspecies concentrations with alcohol consumption are unclear. We aimed to evaluate the interplay between alcohol consumption, HDL parameters and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In the PREVEND study of 5151 participants (mean age, 53 years; 47.5% males), self-reported alcohol consumption and HDL-P and subspecies (small, medium, and large) by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were assessed. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for first CVD events were estimated. In multivariable linear regression analyses, increasing alcohol consumption increased HDL-C, HDL-P, large and medium HDL, HDL size, and HDL subspecies (H3P, H4P, H6 and H7) in a dose-dependent manner. During a median follow-up of 8.3 years, 323 first CVD events were recorded. Compared with abstainers, the multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of CVD for occasional to light, moderate, and heavy alcohol consumers were 0.72 (0.55-0.94), 0.74 (0.54-1.02), and 0.65 (0.38-1.09), respectively. These associations remained consistent on additional adjustment for each HDL parameter. For CVD, only HDL-C was associated with a statistically significant decreased risk of CVD in a fully adjusted analysis (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.97 per 1 SD increment). For coronary heart disease, HDL-C, HDL-P, medium HDL, HDL size, and H4P showed inverse associations, whereas HDL-C and HDL size modestly increased stroke risk. Except for H6P, alcohol consumption did not modify the associations between HDL parameters and CVD risk. The addition of HDL-C, HDL size, or H4P to a CVD risk prediction model containing established risk factors improved risk discrimination. Increasing alcohol consumption is associated with increased HDL-C, HDL-P, large and medium HDL, HDL size, and some HDL subspecies. Associations of alcohol consumption with CVD are largely independent of HDL parameters. The associations of HDL parameters with incident CVD are generally not attenuated or modified by alcohol consumption.

Effect of bilirubin and Gilbert syndrome on health: cohort analysis of observational, genetic, and Mendelian randomisation associations

Objectives

To compare associations between the Gilbert syndrome genotype in European populations, measured bilirubin concentrations, genetically predicted bilirubin using this genotype, and a wide range of health outcomes in a large cohort.

Design

Cohort study including observational, genetic, and Mendelian randomisation analyses.

Setting

22 centres across England, Scotland, and Wales in UK Biobank (2006-10), with replication in a national Finnish cohort (FinnGen).

Participants

463 060 participants in the UK Biobank were successfully genotyped for a genetic variant (rs887829) that is strongly associated with Gilbert syndrome and 438 056 participants had measured bilirubin concentrations with linked electronic health record data coded using the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Replication analyses were performed in FinnGen (n=429 209) with linked electronic health record data.

Main outcome measures

Odds ratios for the association between serum bilirubin concentrations, rs887829-T homozygosity (the risk genotype for Gilbert syndrome), genetically predicted bilirubin using rs887829-T allele carriage alone, and a wide range of health outcomes recorded in primary and secondary care.

Results

46 189 participants in UK Biobank (about 10%) were homozygous for rs887829-T defining them as having the genotype characterising Gilbert syndrome. However, only 1701 (3%) of this group had a coded diagnosis of Gilbert syndrome. Variation at this locus explained 37.1% of all variation in measured serum bilirubin. In the observational analyses, higher bilirubin concentrations had strong inverse associations with a wide range of outcomes including overall health status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, and cholesterol measures. These associations were not identified in people with the Gilbert genotype. We identified associations with genetically predicted bilirubin concentrations and biliary and liver pathology (eg, odds ratio for cholelithiasis 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20); P=5.7×10^-16) and a novel association with pityriasis rosea (1.47 (1.27 to 1.69), P=1.28×10^-7).

Conclusions

Only 3% of participants who are homozygous for rs887829-T have a recorded diagnosis of Gilbert syndrome. Carriers of this genotype have modest increases in the odds of developing biliary pathology and pityriasis rosea. Evidence from the analyses of genetic data suggests that bilirubin has no likely causal role in protection from cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or other key healthcare outcomes and therefore represents a poor target for therapeutic intervention for these outcomes.

Genetically determined serum bilirubin level and the risk of heart failure: A mendelian randomization study

Background: The association between serum bilirubin level and heart failure (HF) was controversial in previous observational studies and the causal effects of bilirubin on HF have not been investigated. Here, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to investigate the associations between genetically determined bilirubin level and HF. Methods: Summary data on the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with serum bilirubin levels were obtained from genome-wide association study (GWAS) for individuals of European descent and East Asian descent separately. Statistical data for gene-HF associations were extracted from three databases: the HERMES Consortium (47,309 cases and 930,014 controls), FinnGen study (30,098 cases and 229,612 controls) for European population and Biobank Japan (2,820 HF cases and 192,383 controls) for East Asian population. We applied a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework to investigate the causal association between serum bilirubin and HF. Results: Findings from our MR analyses showed that genetically determined serum bilirubin levels were not causally associated with HF risk in either European or East Asian population (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01 and 95% confidence interval [CI] = .97-1.05 for HERMES Consortium; OR = 1.01 and 95% CI = .98-1.04 for FinnGen Study; OR = .82, 95% CI: .61-1.10 for Biobank Japan). These results remained unchanged using different Mendelian randomization methods and in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Our study did not find any evidence to support a causal association between serum bilirubin and HF.

A comparative study of antihypertensive drugs prediction models for the elderly based on machine learning algorithms

Background

Globally, blood pressure management strategies were ineffective, and a low percentage of patients receiving hypertension treatment had their blood pressure controlled. In this study, we aimed to build a medication prediction model by correlating patient attributes with medications to help physicians quickly and rationally match appropriate medications.

Methods

We collected clinical data from elderly hypertensive patients during hospitalization and combined statistical methods and machine learning (ML) algorithms to filter out typical indicators. We constructed five ML models to evaluate all datasets using 5-fold cross-validation. Include random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), artificial neural network (ANN), and naive Bayes (NB) models. And the performance of the models was evaluated using the micro-F1 score.

Results

Our experiments showed that by statistical methods and ML algorithms for feature selection, we finally selected Age, SBP, DBP, Lymph, RBC, HCT, MCHC, PLT, AST, TBIL, Cr, UA, Urea, K, Na, Ga, TP, GLU, TC, TG, γ-GT, Gender, HTN CAD, and RI as feature metrics of the models. LightGBM had the best prediction performance with the micro-F1 of 78.45%, which was higher than the other four models.

Conclusion

LightGBM model has good results in predicting antihypertensive medication regimens, and the model can be beneficial in improving the personalization of hypertension treatment.

Serum total bilirubin and new-onset hypertension in perimenopausal women: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have shown negative associations between total bilirubin (TBIL) and hypertension. However, the association of TBIL with new-onset hypertension in perimenopausal women is unknown.

METHODS

A total of 196 perimenopausal women were included in this cross-sectional study of which 85 had new-onset hypertension. All participants underwent 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and a clinical assessment including anthropometrics. Sociodemographic, lifestyle, and menopausal symptoms (modified Kupperman Index [mKI]) were measured by questionnaire. A fasting blood sample was taken to measure a wide range of biomarkers and hormone levels. Restricted cubic spline regression was used to investigate potential nonlinearity. Multivariable logistic and robust linear regression analyses adjusting for minimal sufficient adjustment sets based on directed acyclic graphs were performed to test the association of TBIL with hypertension/blood pressure. We examined mKI-stratified analyses and a TBIL-mKI interaction term to explore potential effect modification by number of menopausal symptoms.

RESULTS

Hypertensive women had significantly lower TBIL levels than did normotensive women (11.15 vs 12.55 μmol/L, P = 0.046). Univariate restricted cubic spline regression showed nonsignificant nonlinearity ( P value for nonlinearity, 0.339). Multivariable regression analyses adjusted for minimal sufficient adjustment sets revealed that higher TBIL level was associated with lower odds of hypertension (odds ratio, 0.91 per μmol/L TBIL; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.98; P = 0.019). Total bilirubin showed a significant inverse association with average 24-hour diastolic blood pressure ( β = -0.36 mm Hg per μmol/L TBIL; 95% CI, -0.62 to -0.10; P = 0.008) but not with 24-hour systolic blood pressure ( β = -0.37 mm Hg per μmol/L TBIL; 95% CI, -0.79 to 0.06; P = 0.090). Stratified analyses suggested stronger inverse associations of TBIL with hypertension and 24-hour blood pressure in women with fewer menopausal symptoms (mKI ≤10), although the TBIL-mKI interaction was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In perimenopause, TBIL was inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure and new-onset hypertension, diagnosed using 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

Serum total bilirubin and long-term prognosis of patients with new-onset non-ST elevation myocardial infarction: a cohort study

Background

The potential prognostic role of total bilirubin (TBIL) in patients with new-onset non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is not fully understood. This study aims to evaluate the potential predictive value of TBIL for long-term prognosis in patients with new-onset NSTEMI.

Methods

Patients with new-onset NSTEMI that underwent emergency coronary angiography in our department from June 2015 to March 2020 were included. Baseline TBIL was measured at admission. SYNTAX scores were used to indicate the severity of coronary lesions. The association between TBIL and SYNTAX scores was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. The patients were followed for the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs). The association between TBIL and MACCEs was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier survival methods.

Results

In total 327 patients were included in this study. Patients were divided according to tertiles of TBIL (first tertile < 10.23 µmol/L, n = 109; second tertile 10.23–14.30 µmol/L, n = 109; and third tertile ≥ 14.30 µmol/L, n = 109). TBIL was independently associated with the severity of coronary lesions in patients with NSTEMI, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the third tertile and the second tertile compared with the first tertile of TBIL of 2.259 (1.197–4.263) and 2.167 (1.157–4.059), respectively (both p < 0.05). After a mean follow-up of 30.33 months, MACCE had occurred in 57 patients. TBIL was independently associated with the increased risk of MACCEs, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI for the third tertile and the second tertile compared with the first tertile of TBIL of 2.737 (1.161–6.450) and 3.272 (1.408–7.607), respectively (both p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Higher myocardial infarction admission TBIL might independently predict poor prognosis in patients with NSTEMI.

Identifying Potential Therapeutic Applications and Diagnostic Harms of Increased Bilirubin Concentrations: A Clinical and Genetic Approach

Bilirubin has antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties in vitro and in animal studies and protects against inflammatory, cardiovascular, and other diseases in observational studies; therefore, bilirubin has potential as a therapeutic agent. However, observational studies could be confounded by many factors. We used a genetic (n = 61,281) and clinical (n = 234,670) approach to define the association between bilirubin and 19 conditions with a putative protective signal in observational studies. We also tested if individuals with genetically higher bilirubin levels underwent more diagnostic tests. We used a common variant in UGT1A1 (rs6742078) associated with an 26% increase in bilirubin levels in the genetic studies. Carriers of the variant had higher bilirubin levels (P = 2.2 × 10-16 ) but there was no significant association with any of the 19 conditions. In a phenome-wide association study (pheWAS) to seek undiscovered genetic associations, the only significant finding was increased risk of "jaundice-not of newborn." Carriers of the variant allele were more likely to undergo an abdominal ultrasound (odds ratio = 1.04, [1.00-1.08], P = 0.03). In contrast, clinically measured bilirubin levels were significantly associated with 15 of the 19 conditions (P < 0.003) and with 431 clinical diagnoses in the pheWAS (P < 1 × 10-5 adjusted for sex, age, and follow-up). With additional adjustment for smoking and body mass index, 7 of 19 conditions and 260 pheWAS diagnoses remained significantly associated with bilirubin levels. In conclusion, bilirubin does not protect against inflammatory or other diseases using a genetic approach; the many putative beneficial associations reported clinically are likely due to confounding.

Serum metabolomics analysis reveals increased lipid catabolism in mildly hyperbilirubinemic Gilbert's syndrome individuals

BACKGROUND

The protective role of mildly elevated bilirubin against CVD and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2) is associated with a favorable lipid phenotype. As the mechanistic understanding of this protection in humans remains elusive, we aimed to assess the metabolomics profile of mildly hyperbilirubinemic (Gilbert's syndrome; GS) individuals especially targeting lipid catabolism.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using NMR serum metabolomics of 56 GS individuals and 56 age and gender-matched healthy controls, GS individuals demonstrated significantly greater concentrations of acetylcarnitine (+20%, p < 0.001) and the ketone bodies, 3-hydroxybutyric acid (+132%, p < 0.001), acetoacetic acid (+95%, p < 0.001) and acetone (+46%, p < 0.001). Metabolites associated with an increased mitochondrial lipid metabolism such as citrate (+15%, p < 0.001), anaplerotic amino acid intermediates and creatinine were significantly greater and creatine significantly reduced in GS individuals. Stimulators of lipid catabolism including AMPK (+59%, p < 0.001), pPPARα (+24%, p < 0.001) and T3 (+9%, p = 0.009) supported the metabolomics data while concomitantly blood glucose and insulin (-33%, p = 0.002) levels were significantly reduced. We further showed that the increased lipid catabolism partially mediates the favorable lipid phenotype (lower triglycerides) of GS individuals. Increased trimethylamine (+35%, p < 0.001) indicated changes in trimethylamine metabolism, an emerging predictor of metabolic health.

CONCLUSION

We showed an enhanced lipid catabolism in mildly hyperbilirubinemic individuals, novel evidence as to why these individuals are leaner and protected against chronic metabolic diseases emphasizing bilirubin to be a promising future target in obese and dyslipidemia patients.

Elucidation of a Causal Relationship Between Platelet Count and Hypertension: A Bi-Directional Mendelian Randomization Study

Hypertension has been reported as a major risk factor for diseases such as cardiovascular disease, and associations between platelet activation and risk for hypertension are well-established. However, the exact nature of causality between them remains unclear. In this study, a bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was conducted on 15,996 healthy Taiwanese individuals aged between 30 and 70 years from the Taiwan Biobank, recorded between 2008 and 2015. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) method was applied to determine the causal relationship between platelet count and hypertension with single nucleotide polymorphisms as instrumental variables (IVs). Furthermore, to check for pleiotropy and validity of the IVs, sensitivity analyses were performed using the MR-Egger, weighted median and simple median methods. This study provided evidence in support of a positive causal effect of platelet count on the risk of hypertension (odds ratio: 1.149, 95% confidence interval: 1.131-1.578, P < 0.05), using the weighted median method. A significant causal effect of platelet count on hypertension was observed using the IVW method. No pleiotropy was observed. The causal effect of hypertension on platelet count was found to be non-significant. Therefore, the findings from this study provide evidence that higher platelet count may have a significant causal effect on the elevated risk of hypertension for the general population of Taiwan.

Association of Serum Bilirubin Level with Metabolic Syndrome and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study of 1672 Obese Children

As in adults, obesity also plays a central role in the development of metabolic syndrome (MS) in children. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered a manifestation of MS. Not only MS but also NAFLD seem to be inversely associated with serum bilirubin concentrations, an important endogenous tissue protector when only mild elevated. The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between serum bilirubin levels and the prevalence of MS and NAFLD in Italian obese children and adolescents. A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed in 1672 patients aged from 5 to 18 years. Clinical and laboratory parameters were assessed. NAFLD was measured by liver ultrasonography. The study was approved by the Ethical Committee of the Istituto Auxologico Italiano (research project code 1C021_2020, acronym BILOB). MS was present in 24% and fatty liver (FL) in 38% of this population. Bilirubin was not associated with FL and MS as a whole, but it was inversely associated only with selected components of MS, i.e., large WC, high blood pressure and high triglycerides. Our data suggest that bilirubin is not protective against MS and NAFLD in the presence of severe obesity.

Association of beta-hydroxybutyrate with development of heart failure: Sex differences in a Dutch population cohort

BACKGROUND

In the failing heart, energy metabolism is shifted towards increased ketone body oxidation. Nevertheless, the association of beta-hydroxybutyrate (β-OHB) with development of heart failure (HF) remains unclear. We investigated the association between plasma β-OHB and the risk of HF in a prospective population-based cohort.

DESIGN

Plasma β-OHB concentrations were measured in 6134 participants of the PREVEND study. Risk of incident HF with reduced (HFrEF) or preserved (HFpEF) ejection fraction was estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During median follow-up for 8.2 years, 227 subjects were diagnosed with HF (137 with HFrEF; 90 with HFpEF). Cox regression analyses revealed a significant association of higher β-OHB concentrations with incident HF (HR per 1 standard deviation increase, 1.40 (95% CI: 1.21-1.63; P < .001), which was largely attributable to HFrEF. In women, the hazard ratio (HR) for HFrEF per 1 standard deviation increase in β-OHB was 1.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-2.56, P = .005) in age, BMI, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, myocardial infarction, smoking, alcohol consumption, total cholesterol, HDL-C, triglycerides, glucose, eGFR and UAE adjusted analysis. In men, in the same fully adjusted analysis, the HR was 1.14 (CI: 0.86-1.53, P = .36) (P < .01 for sex interaction). In N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-stratified analysis, the age-adjusted association with HF was significant in women with higher NT-proBNP levels (P = .008).

CONCLUSIONS

This prospective study suggests that high plasma concentrations of β-OHB are associated with an increased risk of HFrEF, particularly in women. The mechanisms responsible for the sex differences of this association warrant further study.

An Academic Clinician's Road Map to Hypertension Genomics: Recent Advances and Future Directions MMXX

At the dawn of the new decade, it is judicious to reflect on the boom of knowledge about polygenic risk for essential hypertension supplied by the wealth of genome-wide association studies. Hypertension continues to account for significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, with increasing prevalence anticipated. Here, we overview recent advances in the use of big data to understand polygenic hypertension, as well as opportunities for future innovation to translate this windfall of knowledge into clinical benefit.

Exploring the causal pathway from bilirubin to CVD and diabetes in the UK biobank cohort study: Observational findings and Mendelian randomization studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Some studies reported that mildly elevated serum bilirubin levels were associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. Whether these are causal relationships remains unclear. This study aims to examine the causal effects of bilirubin on CVD, diabetes and their subtypes.

METHODS

The data we used in this study includes individual data from the UK Biobank cohort with 331,002 white British participants, and summary data from published genome wide associations studies (GWAS) findings. We used individual data to perform logistic regression for the observational study and two-stage least squares method for the Mendelian randomization (MR) study. We also performed several traditional MR methods and MR-TRYX by summary data.

RESULTS

The observational study supported the association relationships between bilirubin and CVD and diabetes and their subtypes. Results of MR showed strong evidence for negative causal associations of log_e total bilirubin with CVD [OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.88-0.95, p-value 2.15 × 10^-6], coronary heart disease [OR 0.90, 95%CI 0.85-0.96, p-value 1.54 × 10^-3] and hypertensive diseases [OR 0.91, 95%CI 0.88-0.95, p-value 5.89 × 10^-6], but no evidence for diabetes [OR 0.94, 95%CI 0.86-1.02, p-value 0.14] and its subtypes. We also obtained similar results for direct bilirubin. We found that blood pressure, cholesterol, C-reactive protein, alcohol and white blood cell count played important roles in the causal pathway from bilirubin to CVD. Two sample MR and sensitivity analyses showed consistent results with one sample MR.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically determined bilirubin was negatively associated with the risk of CVD but had no evident causal association with diabetes in the UK Biobank cohort of white British.

Circulating total bilirubin and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the PREVEND study: observational findings and a Mendelian randomization study

The relationship between circulating total bilirubin and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is uncertain. We aimed to assess the association of total bilirubin with the risk of new-onset NAFLD and investigate any causal relevance to the association using a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Plasma total bilirubin levels were measured at baseline in the PREVEND prospective study of 3824 participants (aged 28–75 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease or NAFLD. Incident NAFLD was estimated using the biomarker-based algorithms, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI). Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) for NAFLD were assessed. The genetic variant rs6742078 located in the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus was used as an instrumental variable. Participants were followed up for a mean duration of 4.2 years. The multivariable adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by FLI (434 cases) was 0.82 (0.73–0.92; p = 0.001) per 1 standard deviation (SD) change in log_e total bilirubin. The corresponding adjusted OR (95% CIs) for NAFLD as estimated by HSI (452 cases) was 0.87 (0.78–0.97; p = 0.012). The rs6742078 variant explained 20% of bilirubin variation. The ORs (95% CIs) for a 1 SD genetically elevated total bilirubin level was 0.98 (0.69–1.38; p = 0.900) for FLI and 1.14 (0.81–1.59; p = 0.451) for HSI. Elevated levels of total bilirubin were not causally associated with decreased risk of NAFLD based on MR analysis. The observational association may be driven by biases such as unmeasured confounding and/or reverse causation. However, due to low statistical power, larger-scale investigations are necessary to draw definitive conclusions.

Concentration of Branched-Chain Amino Acids Is a Strong Risk Marker for Incident Hypertension

The potential role of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) in the pathogenesis of cardiometabolic diseases is increasingly recognized, but the association of BCAAs with incident hypertension remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to explore the association of BCAAs with incident hypertension in a prospective population-based cohort study. We measured plasma concentrations of BCAAs by means of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in 4169 participants from the PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease) study. We estimated the risk of incident hypertension using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. After a median follow-up of 8.6 years, incident hypertension was ascertained in 924 subjects. Cox regression analyses revealed a significant association between BCAAs and incident hypertension. The hazard ratio per one SD of BCAAs was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.02-1.20; P=0.01) after full adjustment for multiple clinical variables. Likewise, the fully adjusted association remained significant when evaluated as categorical variable (hazard ratio for upper quartile with lowest quartile as reference category, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.11-1.68; P=0.003). Furthermore, the net reclassification improvement assessment improved after addition of BCAAs to a traditional risk model (P<0.001). This prospective study revealed that high plasma concentrations of BCAAs are associated with an increased risk of newly developed hypertension. The association remained after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and lipid profile.

Associations between neonatal serum bilirubin and childhood hypertension

Mild hyperbilirubinemia is inversely associated with cardiometabolic diseases in adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between neonatal serum bilirubin levels and childhood hypertension. Data were obtained from the U.S. Collaborative Perinatal Project conducted at 12 U.S. medical centers from 1959 to 1965. This multicenter study recruited participants before phototherapy was routinely used, thereby excluding the influence of phototherapy. In 37,544 newborns (31,819 term and 5,725 preterm births), a generalized linear model and a logistic regression model were used to calculate the linear coefficients and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of blood pressure and hypertension at 7 years of age based on neonatal serum bilirubin levels. No significant correlation was observed between serum bilirubin at 48 hours after birth and blood pressure at the age of 7 years in the whole study population and in the subgroup of term infants. In preterm infants, a lower total serum bilirubin and unconjugated bilirubin of 3 mg/dl were associated with a higher systolic blood pressure of 62 mmHg (0.38–0.86, p <0.001) and 0.70 mmHg (0.10–1.30, p <0.05) respectively. Relative to a total serum bilirubin level <3 mg/dl among preterm infants, total serum bilirubin levels of 3–6 mg/dl (adjusted OR 1.36; 95% CI: 0.98–1.89), 6–9 mg/dl (adjusted OR 1.35; 95% CI: 0.98–1.85), 9–12 mg/dl (adjusted OR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.10–2.19), and ≥12 mg/dl (adjusted OR 1.42; 95% CI: 1.01–2.00) were associated with higher risks of hypertension. After stratifying for the subtypes of bilirubin, the associations only existed for unconjugated bilirubin. In addition, consistent findings existed when using maximum neonatal serum bilirubin as an exposure factor. Neonatal serum bilirubin levels are positively associated with childhood blood pressure/hypertension in preterm infants. Our findings may shed some light on the role of bilirubin in the prevention of hypertension.

Plasma Branched-Chain Amino Acids and Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Results from the PREVEND Prospective Cohort Study

Plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) are linked to metabolic disease, but their relevance for prediction of type 2 diabetes development is unclear. We determined the association of plasma BCAAs with type 2 diabetes risk in the prevention of renal and vascular end-stage disease (PREVEND) cohort. The BCAAs were measured by means of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We evaluated the prospective associations of BCAAs with type 2 diabetes in 6244 subjects. The BCAAs were positively associated with HOMA-IR after multivariable adjustment (p < 0.0001). During median follow-up for 7.5 years, 301 cases of type 2 diabetes were ascertained. The Kaplan-Meier plot demonstrated that patients in the highest BCAA quartile presented a higher risk (p log-rank < 0.001). Cox regression analyses revealed a positive association between BCAA and type 2 diabetes; the hazard ratio (HR) for the highest quartile was 6.15 (95% CI: 4.08, 9.24, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for multiple clinical and laboratory variables, the association remained (HR 2.80 (95% CI: 1.72, 4.53), p < 0.0001). C-statistics, Net reclassification improvement, and −2 log likelihood were better after adding BCAAs to the traditional risk model (p = 0.01 to <0.001). In conclusions, high concentrations of BCAAs associate with insulin resistance and with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. This association is independent of multiple risk factors, HOMA-IR and β cell function.

Plasma calprotectin and risk of cardiovascular disease: Findings from the PREVEND prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to assess the association of circulating calprotectin, an inflammation-associated protein, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and determine whether it improves risk prediction.

METHODS

Plasma calprotectin measurements were made at baseline in 5290 participants in the PREVEND prospective study. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for CVD were calculated.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 8.3 years, 339 first CVD events were recorded. Calprotectin concentration was correlated with several conventional risk factors as well as with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (r = 0.42). Calprotectin was log-linearly associated with CVD risk. The risk for CVD adjusted for conventional cardiovascular risk factors was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.13-1.41) per 1 standard deviation higher baseline log_e calprotectin, and was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.11-1.39) following further adjustment for triglycerides, body mass index, and other potential confounders. The association remained present after further adjustment for hsCRP 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02-1.30). Comparing extreme quartiles of plasma calprotectin levels, the corresponding adjusted HRs for CVD were 1.96 (1.37-2.82), 1.89 (1.31-2.72), and 1.56 (1.07-2.29). The association of calprotectin with CVD risk did not vary importantly in several relevant clinical subgroups. Adding calprotectin to the Framingham CVD Risk Score was associated with a C-index change (0.0016; p=0.42) difference in -2 log likelihood (p=0.038), IDI (0.0080; p < 0.001), and NRI (4.03%; p=0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a log-linear association of calprotectin concentration with risk of CVD, which may be partly dependent on hsCRP. Adding calprotectin to conventional risk factors improves CVD risk assessment using measures of reclassification and -2 log likelihood.