Evaluating the Importance of Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Long- and Short-Term Effects and Responses

Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case

After the 2008 World Crisis, there is a view that the economic recovery has not been adequate. In this context, the debate on hysteresis and especially investment hysteresis has increased in the last decade. The aim of this study is to analyze the investment hysteresis and the basic dynamics of hysteresis in the Turkish economy. Structural break tests are used to identify hysteresis. Traditional and asymmetric causality tests are used to identify the fundamental dynamics of hysteresis. Investment, GDP, interest rate, and productivity variables are used to analyze investment hysteresis. Structural break tests were applied to the variables, while conventional and asymmetric causality tests were applied between investments and their determinants. Structural break tests prove the existence of hysteresis. According to the Granger causality test, there is no causality from interest rates, GDP and productivity to investments. The fact that interest rates have no effect on investments proves hysteresis. According to the asymmetric causality test, there is no relationship between interest rates and investments. There is an inverse relationship between GDP and investments. There is an asymmetric relationship between productivity and investments. The fact that productivity shocks cause asymmetric effects on investments makes productivity shocks the main dynamic of hysteresis. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the strong hysteresis and high uncertainty of TFP exacerbate investment hysteresis. Therefore, productivity shocks should be taken into account in policymaking for hysteresis.

Multistage Supply Chain Channel Principal-Agent Model in the Context of e-Commerce With Fairness Preference

This research aims to investigate information asymmetry in e-commerce supply chain channels and the impact of the fair preference model on the behavior and returns of channel members. Therefore, by contrasting it with the model in the completely rational case, this research establishes a more realistic principal-agent model and incorporates the fair preference model into the e-commerce supply chain channel. According to the model's analysis, the effort level of the retailer at each stage is positively correlated with the e-commerce efficiency coefficient, and the incentive coefficient of manufacturers is positively correlated with the e-commerce efficiency coefficient in the case where all rationality is assumed. Manufacturing companies' anticipated profits are positively correlated with the e-commerce efficiency coefficient. According to the fair preference model, retailers will put forth more effort to sell products when their fixed income from manufacturers is higher and their optimal effort level is positively correlated with that income. When e-commerce's efficiency coefficient is higher than 1, the retailer's revenue and effort exceeded those of traditional channels. Manufacturers and retailers both experience Pareto improvements in their earnings after the fair preference model is introduced.

Asymmetric dynamic risk transmission between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty: thinking in the post-covid-19 world

Considering the dramatically increasing impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on monetary policy and the uncertainty in the financial system, we aim to examine the dynamic asymmetric risk transmission between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty. Our sample covers 30 years of data. We first employ the conventional Granger causality test to examine the average relationship between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty, and the results cannot provide evidence of causality between them. However, from an asymmetric perspective, we further detect the strongly apparent existence of the asymmetric structure of causality between them. Finally, we conduct further research on the asymmetric impacts from a time-varying perspective. The time-varying test finds that this relationship can be influenced by major events, especially the dot-com bubble, the 2009 financial crisis, and the current COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, one can learn more information about the influencing mechanism between financial stress and monetary policy with our work, which may be beneficial for making better decisions in the future.