Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: a comparison across three levels of security

Intellectual Ability and Sexual Recidivism Risk Assessment: Comparing Predictive Accuracy in an Incarcerated U.S. Sample

While studies indicate that individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) and borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) are overrepresented among those incarcerated for sexual offenses, there is a paucity of research with respect to risk assessment for this population, particularly among incarcerated U.S. samples. This gap is concerning given that individuals perceived as high risk may be denied bail, given harsher sentences, or subject to civil confinement. The present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R, which rely on historical predictors, and the MnSOST-R, which includes a dynamic subscale. Archival records were used to compare individuals with (n = 459) and without (n = 459) ID/BIF released from New Jersey state prisons between 1996 and 2007, with an average follow-up period of 5.7 years. All three instruments demonstrated good predictive validity for those without ID/BIF, while only the MnSOST-R produced a significant AUC value for those with ID/BIF. Reincarceration rates for those with ID/BIF within high-risk groups ranged from 0% to 8%, similar to the overall recidivism base rate of 4%. Results highlight the need for additional research to determine which risk factors should be considered for those with ID/BIF.

Violent Recidivism and Adverse Childhood Experiences in Forensic Psychiatric Patients With Impaired Intellectual Functioning

Accurate risk assessment and insight into which factors are associated with recidivism are essential for forensic correctional practice. Therefore, we investigated whether the Historical, Clinical, and Future-Revised (HKT-R [Historisch Klinisch Toekomst-Revised]) risk assessment instrument could predict violent recidivism over a 2-year follow-up period in forensic psychiatric patients with intelligence quotient (IQ) < 80. We refer to these patients as intellectually disabled (ID) and patients with IQ ≥ 80 as non-ID. Additionally, the associations of the 14 clinical HKT-R factors with ID versus non-ID group membership were investigated, as well as a possible moderating role of adverse childhood experiences (ACE) in these associations. The final sample encompassed 748 forensic psychiatric patients (15.9% were patients with ID) who were unconditionally released from highly secured Dutch forensic psychiatric institutions between 2004 and 2014. The results showed that the HKT-R total score (AUC = 0.705, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.527, 0.882]) and the clinical domain (AUC = 0.733, 95% CI [0.579, 0.886]) had a large effect size for predictive validity for 2-year violent recidivism, while the future domain (AUC = 0.653, 95% CI [0.524, 0.781]) and the historical domain (AUC = 0.585, 95% CI [0.397, 0.772]) had a medium effect size for predictive validity for 2-year violent recidivism in ID patients. It was also found that lower levels of self-reliance and social skills were associated with ID, indicating that treatment should prioritize these skills. However, ACE was not associated with ID, nor did it moderate the associations of the clinical HKT-R factors with ID. This study contributes to the understanding of both risk assessment and treatment of forensic psychiatric patients with ID.

Relationships between dynamic risk factors for externalising problem behaviour and group climate in adults with mild intellectual disability in forensic treatment

BACKGROUND

Relationships between dynamic risk factors for externalising problem behaviour and group climate were investigated in 151 adult in-patients with mild intellectual disability or borderline intellectual functioning in a Dutch secure residential facility.

METHOD

Regression analysis was used to predict total group climate score and Support, Growth, Repression, and Atmosphere subscales of the 'Group Climate Inventory'. Predictor variables were Coping Skills, Attitude towards current treatment, Hostility, and Criminogenic attitudes subscales of the 'Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales'.

RESULTS

Less hostility predicted a better overall group climate, better support and atmosphere, and less repression. A positive attitude towards current treatment predicted better growth.

CONCLUSION

Results indicate relationships of hostility and attitude towards current treatment with group climate. A focus on both dynamic risk factors and group climate may provide a basis for improving treatment for this target group.

The predictive value of the dynamic risk outcome scales (DROS) for recidivism in (forensic) clients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning

BACKGROUND

The dynamic risk outcome scales (DROS) was developed to assess treatment progress of clients with mild intellectual disability or borderline intellectual functioning using dynamic risk factors. We studied the predictive value of the DROS on various classifications and severity levels of recidivism.

METHOD

Data of 250 forensic clients with intellectual disabilities were linked to recidivism data from the Judicial Information Service in the Netherlands. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to determine the predictive values.

RESULTS

The DROS total score could not significantly predict recidivism. A DROS recidivism subscale predicted general, violent and other recidivism. These predictive values were comparable to those of a Dutch tool validated for risk assessment in the general forensic population.

CONCLUSIONS

The DROS recidivism subscale predicted various classifications of recidivism better than chance. At present, the DROS appears to have no added value beyond the HKT-30 for the purpose of risk assessment.

Risk Factors for Sexual Offenses Committed by Men With or Without a Low IQ: An Exploratory Study

Although risk factors associated with offending and recidivism are relatively well-established for mainstream sexual offenses, much less is known about men with a low IQ who have sexually offended (MIQSO), let alone those with forensic involvement. In this exploratory study, 137 convicted for the commission of at least one sexual offense and found not criminally responsible because a mental disorder were recruited in a maximum-security hospital. They were all assessed with the SORAG (static risk factors) and the RSVP (dynamic risk factors). Compared with MIQSO (N = 76), men with an average or higher IQ who have sexually offended (MSO, N = 61) obtained significantly higher scores on static factors related with general delinquency (histories of alcohol abuse, non-violent criminality, violent criminality, and sexual offense) and dynamic factors related with sexual delinquency, paraphilia, and recidivism (chronicity, psychological coercion, escalation, sexual deviance, and substance abuse). In contrast, MIQSO obtained significantly higher scores on major mental illness, problems with planning and problems with self-awareness. Logistic regressions revealed that both the SORAG and RSVP were useful to predict group membership. It is concluded that risk factors related with general and sexual delinquency better describe offenses committed by MSO, whereas risk factors related with mental disorder, lack of insight and contextual impulsivity better describe offenses committed by MIQSO.

Criminal recidivism in offenders with and without intellectual disability sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden-A 17-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Offenders with intellectual disability (ID) constitute a distinct subgroup of offenders with mental disorders. Regarding criminal recidivism, it is unclear whether or not offenders with ID in forensic psychiatric settings differ from offenders without ID. Factors associated with criminal recidivism among offenders with ID have been scarcely investigated.

AIM

To investigate the association between ID and criminal recidivism among offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care and to explore the impact of clinical, sociodemographic and offense variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on Swedish nationwide registers. A total of 3,365 individuals being sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden in 1997-2013 were followed from the forensic psychiatric assessment until first reconviction, death, emigration, or 31 December 2013, whichever occurred first. Cox regression models compared rates of recidivism in individuals with and without ID. Impact of clinical, sociodemographic, and offense variables on risk of criminal recidivism was presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Out of 3,365 offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care, 259 (7.7%) were diagnosed with ID. During follow-up (0-17 years, median 6 years), one third (n = 1,099) of the study population relapsed into criminality, giving a recidivism rate of 50.5 per 1,000 person-years. We observed an association between ID and a decreased risk of recidivism (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.063), although this reached statistical significance only for the subgroup of male offenders (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.040) and not females (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.6-1.8). ID offenders with concurrent ADHD tended to have a higher rate of recidivism (73.9 per 1,000 person-years, HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.6-2.4) than ID offenders without ADHD (42.5 per 1,000 person-years, HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.1). Amongst ID offenders, concurrent autism spectrum disorder, young age or male sex were not associated with recidivism, while previous criminal convictions were strongly associated with recidivism.

CONCLUSION

A diagnosis of ID was associated with a lower risk of criminal recidivism among male offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care. The association between ADHD and recidivism among ID offenders highlights eligible focus areas in the management of offenders with ID.

Predicting aggression in adults with intellectual disability: A pilot study of the predictive efficacy of the Current Risk of Violence and the Short Dynamic Risk Scale

BACKGROUND

Structured assessments have been shown to assist professionals to evaluate the risk of aggression in secure services for general offender populations and more recently among adults with intellectual disabilities. There is a need to develop intellectual disability sensitive measures for predicting risk of aggression in community samples, especially tools with a focus on dynamic variables.

METHODS

The study prospectively followed 28 participants for up to 2 months to test whether the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV) and Short Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS) were able to predict verbal and physical aggression in a community sample of adults with intellectual disability.

RESULTS

CuRV and SDRS ratings significantly predicted verbal and physical aggression over a 2-month period.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study supports the use of the CuRV with adults with intellectual disability living in community settings. The CuRV and SDRS are worthy of future development and evaluation in independent investigations.

The protective scale of the Armidilo-S: The importance of forensic and clinical outcomes

BACKGROUND

The Armidilo has two scales-the risk scale and the protective scale. Research has been confined to the risk scale which appears to predict future incidents with medium to large effect sizes. There have been no publications on the use of the protective scale.

METHODS

The Armidilo was completed on four individuals with IDD who were either moving on from their placement or whose placement was in jeopardy because of new information or altered policies in the organization. The Armidilo was completed in the usual fashion.

RESULTS

Risk and protective results show that for each individual, recommendations could be made that ensured the best outcome. For two participants, restrictive placements were avoided because of the data on protective factors.

CONCLSIONS

The protective scale can be a powerful support for the clinician's case in offenders with IDD. The protective scale should be completed routinely for clinical evaluation.

How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID).

METHODS

A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs.

RESULTS

Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population.

Researching outcomes from forensic services for people with intellectual or developmental disabilities: a systematic review, evidence synthesis and expert and patient/carer consultation

Background

Inpatient services for people with intellectual and other types of developmental disabilities (IDD) who also have forensic or risk issues are largely provided in secure hospitals. Although this is a health service sector with high levels of expenditure, there is limited empirical information on patient outcomes from such services. In order for a future substantive longitudinal outcomes study in forensic IDD services to be informed and feasible, more needs to be understood about the outcome domains that are of relevance and importance and how they should be measured. A preliminary series of studies was therefore undertaken.

Objectives

To synthesise evidence in relation to the outcome domains that have been researched in the existing literature from hospital and community forensic services for people with IDD, within the broad domains of service effectiveness, patient safety and patient experience. To identify a definitive framework of outcome domains (and associated measures and indicators) based both on this research evidence and on the views of patients, carers and clinicians. To synthesise the information gathered in order to inform design of future multisite longitudinal research in the sector.

Design

Three linked studies were conducted. Stage 1 was a systematic review and evidence synthesis of outcome domains and measures as found within the forensic IDD literature. Stage 2 was a consultation exercise with 15 patients with IDD and six carers. Stage 3 was a modified Delphi consensus exercise with 15 clinicians and experts using the information gathered at stages 1 and 2.

Results

At stage 1, 60 studies that researched a range of outcomes in forensic IDD services were identified from the literature. This resulted in the construction of an initial framework of outcome domains. The consultation with patients and carers at stage 2 added to these framework domains that related particularly to carer experience and the level of support post discharge in the community. The Delphi process at stage 3 confirmed the validity of the resulting framework for clinician. This survey also identified the outcome measures preferred by clinicians and those that are currently utilised in services. Thus, indicators of appropriate measures in some important domains were identified, although there was a paucity of measures in other domains.

Conclusions

Together, these three linked studies led to the development of an evidence-based framework of key outcome domains and subdomains. A provisional list of associated measures and indicators was developed, although with the paucity of measures in some domains development of specific indicators may be required. With further refinement this could eventually be utilised by services and commissioners for comparative purposes, and in future empirical research on outcomes in forensic IDD services. An outline research proposal closely linked to recent policy initiatives was proposed. Limitations of the study include the relatively small number of carers and patients and range of experts consulted.

Future work

This would comprise a national longitudinal study tracking IDD in patients through hospitalisation and discharge.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015016941.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

A systematic review and synthesis of outcome domains for use within forensic services for people with intellectual disabilities

BACKGROUND

There is limited empirical information on service-level outcome domains and indicators for the large number of people with intellectual disabilities being treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals.

AIMS

This study identified and developed the domains that should be used to measure treatment outcomes for this population.

METHOD

A systematic review of the literature highlighted 60 studies which met eligibility criteria; they were synthesised using content analysis. The findings were refined within a consultation and consensus exercises with carers, patients and experts.

RESULTS

The final framework encompassed three a priori superordinate domains: (a) effectiveness, (b) patient safety and (c) patient and carer experience. Within each of these, further sub-domains emerged from our systematic review and consultation exercises. These included severity of clinical symptoms, offending behaviours, reactive and restrictive interventions, quality of life and patient satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

To index recovery, services need to measure treatment outcomes using this framework.

DECLARATION OF INTEREST

None.

COPYRIGHT AND USAGE

© The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence.

Predicting Institutional Aggression in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

BACKGROUND

One of the most extensively tested risk assessment instruments in offenders with an intellectual disability (OIDs) is the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). The purpose of this prospective study was to test the ability of this instrument to predict institutional aggression in OIDs.

METHOD

VRAG scores were collected for 52 OIDs, and staff registered aggressive incidents during a period of 6 months. Predictive accuracy was analysed using several performance indicators.

RESULTS

The VRAG was not able to significantly predict aggressive behaviour, although a trend towards significance was found for interpersonal physical aggression. Furthermore, the VRAG was only accurate in prospectively identifying low-risk individuals.

CONCLUSION

Compared to other studies, demonstrating good predictive validity for institutional aggression in OIDs, the VRAG performed poorly in this study. The usefulness of this instrument in identifying high-risk offenders is questioned. Until further evidence is available from studies using multiple performance indicators, clinicians have to be very careful in relying on the results of a risk assessment tool.

The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Adults with Intellectual Disability: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

While structured professional judgement approaches to assessing and managing the risk of violence have been extensively examined in mental health/forensic settings, the application of the findings to people with an intellectual disability is less extensively researched and reviewed. This review aimed to assess whether risk assessment tools have adequate predictive validity for violence in adults with an intellectual disability.

METHODS

Standard systematic review methodology was used to identify and synthesize appropriate studies.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were identified as meeting the inclusion criteria. These studies assessed the predictive validity of 18 different risk assessment tools, mainly in forensic settings. All studies concluded that the tools assessed were successful in predicting violence. Studies were generally of a high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

There is good quality evidence that risk assessment tools are valid for people with intellectual disability who offend but further research is required to validate tools for use with people with intellectual disability who offend.

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen's d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen's d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement.

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient aggression: the effect of intellectual disability on accuracy

BACKGROUND

People with intellectual disability (ID) account for a large proportion of aggressive incidents in secure and forensic psychiatric services. Although the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20 (HCR-20) has good predictive validity in inpatient settings, it does not perform equally in all groups and there is little evidence for its efficacy in those with ID.

METHOD

A pseudo-prospective cohort study of the predictive efficacy of the HCR-20 for those with ID (n = 109) was conducted in a UK secure mental health setting using routinely collected risk data. Performance of the HCR-20 in the ID group was compared with a comparison group of adult inpatients without an ID (n = 504). Analysis controlled for potential covariates including security level, length of stay, gender and diagnosis.

RESULTS

The HCR-20 total score was a significant predictor of any aggression and of physical aggression for both groups, although the area under the curve values did not reach the threshold for a large effect size. The clinical subscale performed significantly better in those without an ID compared with those with. The ID group had a greater number of relevant historical and risk management items. The clinicians' summary judgment significantly predicted both types of aggressive outcomes in the ID group, but did not predict either in those without an ID.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that, after controlling for a range of potential covariates, the HCR-20 is a significant predictor of inpatient aggression in people with an ID and performs as well as for a comparison group of mentally disordered individuals without ID. The potency of HCR-20 subscales and items varied between the ID and comparison groups suggesting important target areas for improved prediction and risk management interventions in those with ID.

Men with intellectual disabilities with a history of sexual offending: empathy for victims of sexual and non-sexual crimes

BACKGROUND

The objectives were (a) to compare the general empathy abilities of men with intellectual disabilities (IDs) who had a history of sexual offending to men with IDs who had no known history of illegal behaviour; and (b) to determine whether men with IDs who had a history of sexual offending had different levels of specific victim empathy towards their own victim, in comparison with an unknown victim of sexual crime, and a victim of non-sexual crime, and make comparisons with non-offenders.

METHODS

Men with mild IDs (n=35) were asked to complete a measure of general empathy and a measure of specific victim empathy. All participants completed the victim empathy measure in relation to a hypothetical victim of a sexual offence, and a non-sexual crime, while additionally, men with a history of sexual offending were asked to complete this measure in relation to their own most recent victim.

RESULTS

Men with a history of sexual offending had significantly lower general empathy, and specific victim empathy towards an unknown sexual offence victim, than men with no known history of illegal behaviour. Men with a history of sexual offending had significantly lower victim empathy for their own victim than for an unknown sexual offence victim. Victim empathy towards an unknown victim of a non-sexual crime did not differ significantly between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that it is important include interventions within treatment programmes that attempt to improve empathy and perspective-taking.

Differences between juvenile offenders with and without intellectual disabilities in the importance of static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism

BACKGROUND

Juvenile offenders with intellectual disability (ID) have been largely ignored in the literature of risk assessment, while they are overrepresented in the criminal justice system, and ID is a risk factor for juvenile delinquency and recidivism. The aim of this study was to examine whether there are differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors for recidivism. Both the impact of static and dynamic risk factors were examined. Static risk factors were examined in the criminal history domain and dynamic risk factors were examined in the domains of family, school, use of free time, friends, alcohol/drugs, attitude, aggression and skills. This knowledge is important for both assessment and treatment of juvenile offenders with ID.

METHOD

The sample consisted of adolescents who appeared before the courts for a criminal act and for whom the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment (WSJCA) was completed. The group of ID juvenile offenders (n = 102) consisted of juvenile offenders with a formal diagnosis of ID, which means a full scale IQ of less than 70, coupled with significant deficits in adaptive behaviour, with childhood onset. The juveniles of this group are special education students or they have a formal diagnosis of a special education need. The group without ID (n = 526), was a random sample of all juvenile offenders without a formal diagnosis of ID.

RESULTS

No differences were found between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors on recidivism in most domains. However, in the skills domain, the relations between all risk factors and recidivism were significantly stronger in adolescents without ID than in adolescents with ID. Although not or only borderline statistically significant, these risk factors were all negatively related to recidivism in adolescents with ID, whereas these risk factors were significantly and positively related to recidivism in adolescents without ID.

CONCLUSIONS

There are few differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the impact of risk factors for recidivism, suggesting that the same assessment methods can be used for juvenile offenders with and without ID. There were, however, differences between juvenile offenders with and without ID in the skills domain. What these differences mean for the treatment of juvenile offenders is yet to be determined. For now it is important to be aware of potential negative (side) effects on recidivism when skills training is offered to juvenile offenders with ID.

How do static and dynamic risk factors work together to predict violent behaviour among offenders with an intellectual disability?

BACKGROUND

Research on risk assessment with offenders with an intellectual disability (ID) has largely focused on estimating the predictive accuracy of static or dynamic risk assessments, or a comparison of the two approaches. The aim of this study was to explore how static and dynamic risk variables may 'work together' to predict violent behaviour.

METHODS

Data from 212 offenders with an ID were analysed. Risk assessment tools included one static measure (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide), and two dynamic measures (Emotional Problems Scale and the Short Dynamic Risk Scale). Six-month concurrent prediction data on violent behaviour were collected. A structured methodology was employed to explore putative relationships between static and dynamic factors.

RESULTS

Static risk factors temporally preceded dynamic ones, and were shown to dominate both dynamic measures, while there was a non-zero relationship between the static and the two dynamic measures. According to Kraemer et al., these findings suggest that dynamic risk factors function as proxy risk factors for static risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic and static risk factors appear to capture elements of the same underlying risk associated with violent behaviour in individuals with an ID. This is the first study to empirically explore risk interrelationships in the forensic ID field. We discuss the importance of the contribution of dynamic variables in the prediction and management of risk.

Why do some people with intellectual disability engage in offending behaviour and what can we do about it? Editorial

BACKGROUND

The field of forensic intellectual disabilities has been developing rapidly over the last 15 years. Much of the work has been built on research in mainstream criminality but more recently studies have emerged that reveal issues specific to offenders with intellectual disability.

METHOD

Research on pathways into offending is reviewed with reference to its relevance to the field of intellectual disability. We also summarize some findings on pathways into and through services for offenders with intellectual disability.

FINDINGS

Studies reveal that developmental adversity is an important risk variable. Previous and recent aggression are potent risk factors. New evidence suggests that immediate, proximal risk factors may be more important in this client group. The studies in this issue add to the knowledge on pathways into offending, important areas for assessment and effective treatments as well as advancing knowledge in the academic literature on general criminality.

Predicting institutional violence in offenders with intellectual disabilities: the predictive efficacy of the VRAG and the HCR-20

BACKGROUND

There is a developing evidence base to support the use of risk assessment instruments in offenders with intellectual disability (ID). The aim of this study was to try to develop this literature with the inclusion of a control group of mentally disordered offenders without an ID, using the HCR-20 and VRAG.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The VRAG and the HCR-20 were completed for a group of offenders with an ID (n = 25) and a control group (n = 45), in four medium-secure units across the UK. The outcome measure was physical aggression measured over 6 months.

RESULTS

Both instruments consistently produced large effect sizes predicting any physical aggression and severe physical aggression. The structured clinical judgement based on the HCR-20 was especially good.

CONCLUSIONS

The HCR-20 and the VRAG have excellent predictive efficacy in offenders with an ID. A structured clinical judgement based on the HCR-20 was especially predictive.

Individuals with developmental delay and problematic sexual behaviors

The field of sex offenders with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) has attracted a significant amount of research in the last 5 to 10 years. This research has included theoretical work on the reasons why men with IDD might engage in problematic sexual behaviours, work on the assessment of risk for future incidents, research investigating the pathways into and through services for sex offenders with IDD and a considerable amount of work developing and evaluating effective treatments. This paper will review the recent research on each of these areas in turn.

Responsivity to criminogenic need in forensic intellectual disability services

BACKGROUND

Research has shown for some time that addressing criminogenic need is one of the crucial aspects of reducing reoffending in all types of offenders. Criminogenic need such as anger or inappropriate sexual interest is considered to be crucial in the commission of the offence. The aim of the present study is to investigate the extent to which forensic services address the needs of those accepted into services.

METHOD

This study reviews the treatment for 197 offenders with intellectual disability accepted into a range of services. Participants' case files were examined to ascertain the extent to which need was addressed through recognised therapies. A standard pro forma was used on which we had established good reliability across four research assistants.

RESULTS

The most frequently referred problems were violence and sexual offending. Specialist forensic intellectual disability community services were significantly more likely to provide treatment specifically designed to address index behaviours when compared to generic community services and secure services.

CONCLUSIONS

Various possible explanations of these findings are explored including staffing levels, diagnosed mental illness, expertise of staff and clarity of purpose in services.

Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: a systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments

An actuarial risk assessment instrument can be considered valid if independent investigations using novel samples can replicate the findings of the instrument's development study. In order for a study to qualify as a replication, it has to adhere to the methodological protocol of the development study with respect to key design characteristics, as well as ensuring that manual-recommended guidelines of test administration have been followed. A systematic search was conducted to identify predictive validity studies (N = 84) on three commonly used actuarial instruments: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Static-99. Sample (sex, age, criminal history) and design (follow-up, attrition, recidivism) characteristics, as well as markers of assessment integrity (scoring reliability, item omissions, prorating procedure), were extracted from 84 studies comprising 108 samples. None of the replications matched the development study of the instrument they were attempting to cross-validate with respect to key sample and design characteristics. Furthermore none of the replications strictly followed the manual-recommended guidelines for the instruments' administration. Additional replication studies that follow the methodological protocols outlined in actuarial instruments' development studies are needed before claims of generalizability can be made.

Intelligent diagnosing of intellectual disabilities in offenders: food for thought

Research on offenders with intellectual disabilities (IDs) in the criminal justice arena is on the rise, reflected by a growing number of relevant publications each year. However, there is a long recognized methodological problem that hampers the comparability of empirical studies and that raises doubts about the accuracy of prevalence rates, comorbidities, and various correlates and characteristics. In this paper we will argue that the crux of the problem can, on the one hand, be found in the plurality of assessment methods for intelligence and adaptive functioning, which are not all sufficiently reliable and valid. On the other hand, assessment of IQ in criminal justice and mental health-related areas appears to be informed more by practical aspects and needs rather than grounded in a solid theoretical model. Hence, we suggest that the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence has potential value in this regard, and deserves a closer look. Finally, we will discuss its incorporation into, and possible implications for, criminal justice practice and future study designs.

Predicting violence using structured professional judgment in patients with different mental and behavioral disorders

We examined whether a leading instrument for the prediction of future violence in those with a mental disorder. The Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) was equally effective across a wide range of mental health diagnoses. Records at the time of discharge from secure psychiatric services were used to score the HCR-20 risk assessment scheme. Patients were stratified according to whether they had received a particular mental health diagnosis. Reconvictions within 2 years of discharge were obtained from official sources and classified as to whether the offence was violent or not. Those with a diagnosis of either personality disorder or substance abuse were most likely to be reconvicted, whilst those with either a diagnosis of schizophrenia or mental retardation were the least likely. The HCR-20 was a statistically significant predictor of future violence in all groups; however, it returned only weak effects for the personality disordered group, but strong effects for those in the schizophrenia or mental retardation group. The HCR-20 risk assessment scheme is effective across a wide range of diagnoses. Nevertheless, the prediction of future events appears more difficult in those disorders characterized by impulsive behaviors and further research efforts are needed to understand how such prediction can be improved.

Referrals into services for offenders with intellectual disabilities: variables predicting community or secure provision

BACKGROUND

There is a need for research to promote an understanding among service developers on why people with intellectual disabilities (ID) are referred to offender services in order for them to receive appropriate assessment and treatment. Previous studies investigating referrals into forensic ID services have concentrated on referral sources and administrative variables such as legal status.

AIMS

To construct a predictive model for choice of service referral based on a comprehensive range of information about the clientele.

METHOD

We conducted a case record study of 336 people referred to community services and 141 to secure provision. We gathered information on referral source, demographics, diagnosis, index behaviour, prior problem behaviours and history of abuse.

RESULTS

Comparisons revealed 19 candidate variables which were then entered into multivariate logistic regression. The resulting model retained six variables: community living at time of referral, physical aggression, being charged, referral from tertiary health care, diverse problem behaviour and IQ < 50, which correctly predicted the referral pathway for 85.7% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

An index act of physical aggression and a history of diversity of problem behaviours as predictors against the likelihood of community service referral suggest that professionals have similar concerns about people with ID as they do about their more average offending peers; however, the more severe levels of ID mitigated in favour of community referral, regardless. Offenders with ID tend to be referred within levels of service rather than between them, for example, form tertiary services into generic community services.

Predicting violence in veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder

BACKGROUND/AIM

Frequent expression of negative affects, hostility and violent behavior in individuals suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were recognized long ago, and have been retrospectively well documented in war veterans with PTSD who were shown to have an elevated risk for violent behavior when compared to both veterans without PTSD and other psychiatric patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of clinical prediction of violence in combat veterans suffering from PTSD.

METHODS

The subjects of this study, 104 male combat veterans with PTSD were assessed with the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management 20 (HCR-20), a 20-item clinician-rated instrument for assessing the risks for violence, and their acts of violence during one-year follow-up period were registered based on bimonthly check-up interviews.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that the HCR-20, as an actuarial measure, had good internal consistency reliability (alpha=0.82), excellent interrater reliability (Interaclass Correlation ICC=0.85), as well as excellent predictive validity for acts of any violence, non-physical violence or physical violence in the follow-up period (AUC = 0.82-0.86). The HCR-20 also had good interrater reliability (Cohen's kappa = 0.74), and acceptable predictive accuracy for each outcome criterion (AUC = 0.73-0.79).

CONCLUSION

The results of this research confirm that the HCR-20 may also be applied in prediction of violent behavior in the population of patients suffering from PTSD with reliability and validity comparable with the results of previous studies where this instrument was administered to other populations of psychiatric patients.

Forensic issues in intellectual disability

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The present paper reviews some of the most significant findings in the field of forensic issues related to intellectual disability over the last 2 years.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent publications have explored the prevalence and assessment of intellectual disabilities in the criminal justice system, as well as individual characteristics of intellectual disabled offenders. Service by the criminal justice system and treatment of intellectual disabled offenders have also been explored. New insights into violence and sexual offences have been achieved, however identification and evidence-based treatment of intellectual disabled offenders are not widely explored issues.

SUMMARY

Progress in treatment studies, studies of the function of the criminal justice system and risk assessments have resulted in improvements in these aspects during recent years. The wide range of services involved in successful initiatives has been addressed, but some crucial aspects still receive too little attention. Differences between countries and cultures have not been emphasized, and the progress that has been achieved seems to be confined to countries with a clear policy and organized services for offenders with intellectual disabilities.