Studying Parole Revocation Practices: Accounting for Dependency Between Competing Events

When individuals are released from prison, they typically enter a period of post confinement community supervision. While under community supervision, their behaviors are subject to special conditions requiring them to report to supervisors and prohibiting certain behaviors such as drug and alcohol use. Many supervisees are returned to prison because they violate those special conditions, or because they commit minor crimes that would not result in prison were they not being supervised. But others are returned to prison for serious new crimes. We distinguish the two as nuisance behaviors (the former) and pernicious behaviors (the latter). Our research applies competing events survival analysis to distinguish a structural model that accounts for nuisance behaviors from a structural model that accounts for pernicious behaviors. We demonstrate that returning offenders to prison for technical violations and minor crimes may reduce the incidence of major crimes because the occurrence of nuisance behaviors and pernicious behaviors are highly correlated. Our findings support the theory that nuisance behaviors signal the likelihood of pernicious behaviors.

For whom are treatments for criminal recidivism effective? Moderator effects from a randomized controlled trial of justice-involved veterans

OBJECTIVE

In a recent trial, moral reconation therapy (MRT)-a cognitive-behavioral intervention for criminal recidivism-was not more effective than usual care (UC) for veterans in behavioral health treatment. To determine for whom treatments of recidivism are most effective, we tested if recency of criminal history or psychopathic traits moderated MRT's effects on outcomes.

METHOD

In a multisite trial, 341 veterans (95.3% male; 57.8% White/Non-Hispanic) with a criminal history who were admitted to behavioral health treatment programs were randomly assigned to UC or UC + MRT and followed at 6- and 12-months. Incarceration (yes/no) or criminal conviction (yes/no) in the year prior to enrollment and psychopathic traits at baseline (median split) were prespecified as moderators of treatment effects on primary (criminal thinking, criminal associations) and secondary outcomes (legal, employment, and family/social problems; substance use problems and days of use).

RESULTS

Among veterans incarcerated in the year prior to enrollment, MRT (vs. UC) was associated with greater reductions in criminal associations (6 months) and days drinking or using drugs (12 months). Among those convicted in the year prior to enrollment, MRT (vs. UC) was associated with greater reductions in employment problems (12 months) and days drinking or using drugs at each follow-up. For those high in psychopathic traits, MRT (vs. UC) was associated with greater reductions in days drinking or using drugs at each follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

For veterans in behavioral health treatment with recent criminal histories and high in psychopathic traits, MRT may be effective for reducing risk for criminal recidivism. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Recidivism risk in male adult sex offenders with psychopathic traits assessed by PCL-R: A systematic review

Psychopathy has been empirically associated with various forms of antisocial behavior including sexual assault. In fact, the lack of empathy characterizing psychopathic offenders may facilitate the perpetration of more extreme violence. This systematic review aims to explore the relationship between psychopathy traits in male adult sex offenders and the increase in recidivism risk for any type of reoffence, with a special focus on sexual recidivism. From an initial sample of 757 articles related to the topic, only 14 were selected from the current literature at the end of the inclusion process. Each of these assessed the relation between psychopathy traits (measured by PCL-R) and recidivism risk in male sex offenders (age > 18), providing an effect size (quantitative findings). The results of their analysis agree with the currently available literature: the presence of psychopathic traits in sex offenders would seem to correlate with an increased risk of recidivism of general but non-sexual. Furthermore, almost half of the included works highlighted a positive relationship between psychopathy and violent reoffences. However, the limited availability of studies and the unevenness in their results indicate the need to expand future research in this direction.

The effectiveness of an additive informal social network intervention for forensic psychiatric outpatients: results of a randomized controlled trial

Objectives

A supportive social network is associated with better mental health and wellbeing, and less criminal behavior. Therefore, this study examined the effectiveness of an additive informal social network intervention to treatment as usual (TAU) among forensic psychiatric outpatients.

Materials and methods

An randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted in forensic psychiatric care, allocating eligible outpatients (N = 102) to TAU with an additive informal social network intervention or TAU alone. Participants receiving the additive intervention were matched to a trained community volunteer over 12 months. TAU consisted of forensic care (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy and/or forensic flexible assertive community treatment). Follow-up assessments were conducted at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 18 months after baseline. The primary outcome was the between-group effect on mental wellbeing at 12 months. Between-group effects on secondary outcomes (e.g., general psychiatric functioning, hospitalization, criminal behavior) were explored.

Results

Intention-to-treat analyses showed non-significant between-group effects on mental wellbeing on average over time and at 12 months. However, significant between-group effects were found on hospitalization duration and criminal behavior. Specifically, TAU participants were hospitalized 2.1 times more days within 12 months and 4.1 more days within 18 months than participants in the additive intervention. Furthermore, TAU participants reported 2.9 times more criminal behaviors on average over time. There were no significant effects on other outcomes. Exploratory analyses revealed that sex, comorbidity, and substance use disorders moderated effects.

Conclusion

This is the first RCT examining the effectiveness of an additive informal social network intervention in forensic psychiatric outpatients. Although no improvements were found on mental wellbeing, the additive intervention was effective in reducing hospitalization and criminal behavior. The findings suggest that forensic outpatient treatment can be optimized by collaborating with informal care initiatives aimed at improving social networks within the community. Future research is warranted to determine which specific patients might benefit from the intervention and if effects can be improved by extending the intervention duration and enhancing patient compliance.Clinical Trial Registration: [https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=NTR7163], identifier [NTR7163].

What Kind of Therapy Works With Juveniles Who Have Sexually Offended? A Randomized-Controlled Trial of Two Versions of a Specialized Cognitive Behavioral Outpatient Treatment Program

There is ongoing debate about whether specialized treatment is effective to reduce sexual recidivism in juveniles who have sexually offended (JSOs). Although most treatment programs are based on cognitive behavioral therapy principles for preventing sexual offending, accordant scientific evidence is poor. Following CONSORT guidelines, the present study aimed to evaluate two versions of a short-term outpatient treatment program for JSOs in Switzerland: (a) the Therapy Program for Adequate Sexual Behaviors Version 1 (ThePaS-I), which included offending-specific skills training; (b) the ThePaS-II, which included general socioemotional skills training. Based on changes in self-reported mental health, sexual behaviors, victim empathy, and therapist-rated risk, as well as comprehensive data on sexual and general recidivism, we found some similarities regarding the effects of the two treatments. ThePaS-II showed better short-term changes in self-reported mental health than the ThePaS-I. However, JSOs in the ThePaS-I showed lower rates of sexual reoffending (but not general reoffending) after treatment than those in the ThePaS-II. Despite some methodological limitations, the current findings favor offending-specific skills-based therapy over general skills-based ones for preventing sexual reoffenses. The findings may encourage further methodologically sound studies to examine different treatment approaches for juveniles and adults who have committed criminal offenses.

Temperament and Offending Behaviors in Male Adolescents

The aim of the current paper was to examine temperament profiles and temperament dimensions as risk factors for persistent criminal behavior in juveniles who offended (JOs). A sample of 137 male adolescents from a Swiss detention center and 137 age and sex matched community controls were included in the present study. Temperament was measured with the Junior Temperament and Character Inventory (JTCI). Using Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), three temperament profiles were found, a "moderate," an "adventurous-disinhibited" (higher levels of novelty seeking, lower levels of harm avoidance, reward dependence, and persistence), and a "worried-passive" profile (higher levels of harm avoidance, low persistence). None of the profiles and dimensions were associated with detention sample (i.e., JO) status. In JOs, the "novelty seeking" scale predicted recidivism after release from detention even when controlling for other covariates. Further research should address temperament profiles and temperament dimensions in larger samples of JOs to elaborate their relation to previous and future offending behavior.

A randomized controlled trial of moral reconation therapy to reduce risk for criminal recidivism among justice-involved adults in mental health residential treatment

OBJECTIVE

Moral reconation therapy (MRT) is a cognitive-behavioral intervention to reduce risk for criminal recidivism. Despite being implemented widely in correctional settings, there are no randomized controlled trials of MRT, and its effectiveness for reducing recidivism among justice-involved adults in noncorrectional settings is unknown.

METHOD

In a pragmatic trial, 341 justice-involved patients (95.3% male; 57.8% White/non-Hispanic) admitted to one of three mental health residential treatment programs were randomly assigned to usual care (UC) or UC plus two MRT groups per week for 12 weeks. Follow-ups were conducted at 6- and 12-month postbaseline (71.3% and 74.8% retention, respectively). Primary outcomes were criminal thinking and criminal associates. Secondary outcomes were legal problem severity, days incarcerated in the past 30, rearrested/charged (per official records), substance use, and employment and family/social problems. The study design, analysis, and outcomes were preregistered (ClinicalTrials.gov; ID: NCT02524171).

RESULTS

Patients in both conditions improved over time on most outcomes. In intent-to-treat analyses, the rate of change in outcomes over time did not differ by condition, nor did the prevalence of being rearrested and charged within 1 year of baseline (UC = 20.2%, MRT = 24.9%; OR = 1.14; 95% CI [0.67, 1.94], p = .63). MRT engagement was low; 37% of those randomized to MRT received a minimum dose-that is, completed at least Step 3. In per-protocol analyses, this subgroup, relative to UC, improved more on criminal associates, days incarcerated, legal problem severity, and alcohol use severity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, MRT was not more effective than UC at reducing recidivism risk for patients in mental health residential treatment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Criminal recidivism in offenders with and without intellectual disability sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden-A 17-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Offenders with intellectual disability (ID) constitute a distinct subgroup of offenders with mental disorders. Regarding criminal recidivism, it is unclear whether or not offenders with ID in forensic psychiatric settings differ from offenders without ID. Factors associated with criminal recidivism among offenders with ID have been scarcely investigated.

AIM

To investigate the association between ID and criminal recidivism among offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care and to explore the impact of clinical, sociodemographic and offense variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on Swedish nationwide registers. A total of 3,365 individuals being sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden in 1997-2013 were followed from the forensic psychiatric assessment until first reconviction, death, emigration, or 31 December 2013, whichever occurred first. Cox regression models compared rates of recidivism in individuals with and without ID. Impact of clinical, sociodemographic, and offense variables on risk of criminal recidivism was presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Out of 3,365 offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care, 259 (7.7%) were diagnosed with ID. During follow-up (0-17 years, median 6 years), one third (n = 1,099) of the study population relapsed into criminality, giving a recidivism rate of 50.5 per 1,000 person-years. We observed an association between ID and a decreased risk of recidivism (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.063), although this reached statistical significance only for the subgroup of male offenders (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0, p = 0.040) and not females (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.6-1.8). ID offenders with concurrent ADHD tended to have a higher rate of recidivism (73.9 per 1,000 person-years, HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.6-2.4) than ID offenders without ADHD (42.5 per 1,000 person-years, HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.1). Amongst ID offenders, concurrent autism spectrum disorder, young age or male sex were not associated with recidivism, while previous criminal convictions were strongly associated with recidivism.

CONCLUSION

A diagnosis of ID was associated with a lower risk of criminal recidivism among male offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care. The association between ADHD and recidivism among ID offenders highlights eligible focus areas in the management of offenders with ID.

Risk Factors for Criminal Recidivism Among Persons With Serious Psychiatric Diagnoses: Disentangling What Matters for Whom

Reducing criminal legal system involvement requires an understanding of the factors that promote repeat offending (i. e., recidivism), and the dissemination of relevant interventions to those most likely to benefit. A growing body of research has established common recidivism risk factors for persons with serious psychiatric disorder diagnoses. However, research to date has not examined the degree to which these risks apply to those with serious psychiatric disorders with and without co-occurring substance use disorders. To clarify what risk and need factors are greatest and for whom, this cross-sectional study drew from an original dataset containing data on 14 social and economic, psychological, and criminal risk areas for a cohort of people on probation (n = 4,809). Linear regression models indicated that, compared to those without a serious psychiatric disorder, people on probation with a serious psychiatric disorder are at greater risk in a minority of areas and those areas are mostly social and economic in nature. Meanwhile, those withco-occurring disorders are at relatively high risk across almost all areas. The results from this study suggest that justice involved persons with serious psychiatric disorders will benefit from interventions that increase social support and economic well-being and that interventions that broadly reduce risk among people with co-occurring serious psychiatric and substance use disorders will likely yield meaningful reductions in system involvement. Ultimately, understanding and intervening upon risk for recidivism among persons with serious psychiatric disorders requires differentiating between those with and without co-occurring substance use disorders.

Long-Term Recidivism of Mentally Disordered Offenders Considered "Dangerous to the Public" in Switzerland

Objectives: The commissions for risk assessment of offenders dangerous to the public were established in 1995 in Switzerland. The main goal was to reduce recidivism of offenders released into the community by means of identifying high-risk offenders and recommending measures for offender management. This study investigates long-term recidivism data of this high-risk cohort of offenders. Methods: Baseline data included risk assessment of one of the commissions, the type of index offense, and psychiatric disorders according to ICD-10 for the total cohort of offenders examined by the commissions between 1995 and 2009. Criminal records were drawn in 2019 for all offenders from the Swiss Federal Office of Justice. Results: From a total of 147 offenders 35 recidivated within a median time at risk of 9.1 years (31.8%), of which 10 (9.1%) recommitted a severe offense. Within the treatment status, sentences (imprisonment and preventive detention) were compared to court-ordered measures (in- or outpatient court ordered treatment, civil court mandated treatment, vocational training facility). There were no significant differences comparing treatment status, different diagnostic groups, type of index offense and other risk factors. Except of age at release (or relapse), which predicted recidivism with younger subjects showing higher recidivism rates (p = 0.014). Conclusion: Our study showed that over a long-term time at risk this high-risk cohort showed a similar recidivism rate as many other studies with different cohorts. With appropriate management recidivism rates in high-risk offenders can be lowered allowing them being consecutively reintegrated into society. The finding that younger subjects have higher recidivism rate was reproduced in this population.

A Multicenter Study on the Role of Pretreatment, Treatment-Related, and Follow-Up Variables

This study examined associations between criminal recidivism after discharge from forensic treatment and variables related to either the time before the current forensic treatment, or the current forensic treatment, or the follow-up after discharge. Participants were treated in 12 forensic clinics according to section 63 of the German penal code. A patient was classified as a criminal recidivist when the patient or the aftercare reported that the patient was delinquent at follow-up. Patients without criminal recidivism were patients for which both perspectives (patient and aftercare) reported no delinquency at follow-up. Mann-Whitney U-tests and Fisher's exact tests were performed. Data to classify patients were available for N = 249 patients. Fifteen patients (6%) were classified as criminal recidivists. The follow-up was M = 12.58 (SD = 1.84) months, and the criminal acts occurred M = 6.00 (SD = 5.55) months after discharge. Differences between patients with and without criminal recidivism were found in pretreatment (young age at first crime, early onset of mental disorder, previous forensic treatments), treatment-related (disorder due to psychoactive substance use, gradual release abuses, outbreaks, assaults against staff, criminal act during treatment, type of discharge, outcome ratings), as well as follow-up variables (no specified housing situation, not being abstinent from psychoactive substances, inpatient readmission, course of outpatient treatment, course of mental disorder) (all p < 0.05). To conclude, it is important to consider variables related to the time before the current treatment, treatment-related variables, and variables related to the follow-up to identify the patients at risk of criminal recidivism after discharge from forensic treatment.

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

OBJECTIVES

A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.

METHODS

Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.

RESULTS

We estimate in-sample 7-year recidivism rates in the 75% to 80% range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79% to 89%.

CONCLUSIONS

The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

The Revised Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests: Predictive and Concurrent Validity

This study examined the predictive and concurrent validity of the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI) and its recent revision (SSPI-2), using a large sample of 2,416 sex offenders deemed not to be in need of civil management in New York State. Both SSPI and SSPI-2 scores were significantly and positively related to sexual rearrest, but the SSPI-2 provided greater discrimination in rearrest within 5 years across possible scores. Neither measure significantly added to the prediction of sexual rearrest provided by the Static-99R. We also found evidence of concurrent validity, as both measures were positively and significantly correlated with clinician ratings of sexual preoccupation, emotional identification with children, and sexual offense-related cognitions (convergent validity), but were not significantly related to clinician ratings of self-regulation problems, noncompliance with supervision, or antisocial personality (divergent validity). Overall, the results suggest that the SSPI-2 is a specific and useful screening measure of pedophilic sexual interests among sex offenders with child victims.

Adherence to Antipsychotic Medication and Criminal Recidivism in a Canadian Provincial Offender Population

Preliminary evidence suggests that adherence to antipsychotic medication reduces criminal recidivism among patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. However, existing studies operationalize antipsychotic adherence as a binary variable (usually using a threshold of ≥80%), which does not reflect the prevalence of suboptimal adherence in real-world settings. The purpose of the current analysis was to investigate the association between successive ordinal levels of antipsychotic adherence and criminal recidivism in a well-defined sample of offenders diagnosed with schizophrenia (n = 11462). Adherence was measured using the medication possession ratio (MPR) and analyzed as a time-dependent covariate in multivariable regression models. Data were drawn from linked, comprehensive diagnostic, pharmacy and justice system records, and individuals were followed for an average of 10 years. Adjusted rate ratios (ARR) and confidence intervals (CI) are reported. Overall mean MPR was 0.41. Increasing levels of antipsychotic adherence were not associated with progressively lower rates of offending. However, when compared to the reference group (MPR ≥ 80%) all lower adherence levels were significantly associated (P < .001) with increased risk of violent (ARR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.46-1.71) and nonviolent (ARR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.33-1.50) offenses. Significance was replicated in separate sensitivity analyses. Previously published studies reporting reductions in crime may have been influenced by antipsychotic adherence ≥80%. Binary operationalization of adherence is an inaccurate predictor of recidivism. Future research addressing functional outcomes of antipsychotic adherence should conceptualize adherence as an incremental independent variable.

Oppositional defiant disorder dimensions and subtypes among detained male adolescent offenders

BACKGROUND

In adolescent offenders, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and its dimensions/subtypes have been frequently ignored due to the stronger focus on criminal behaviours. The revised criteria of the DSM-5 now allow diagnosing ODD in older youths independent of conduct disorder (CD). This study aimed at analysing ODD dimensions/subtypes and their relation to suicidality, comorbid psychiatric disorders, and criminal behaviours after release from detention in a sample of detained male adolescents.

METHODS

Suicidality and psychiatric disorders (including ODD symptoms) were assessed in a consecutive sample of 158 male adolescents (Mage  = 16.89 years) from the Zurich Juvenile Detention Centre. Based on previous research findings, an irritable ODD dimension and a defiant/vindictive ODD dimension based on ODD symptoms were defined. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to identify distinct subtypes of adolescent offenders according to their ODD symptom profiles. Logistic regression and Cox regression were used to analyse the relations of ODD dimensions/ODD subtypes to comorbid psychopathology and criminal reoffenses from official data.

RESULTS

The ODD-irritable dimension, but not the ODD defiant/vindictive dimension predicted comorbid anxiety, suicidality and violent reoffending. LCA identified four subtypes, namely, a no-ODD subtype, a severe ODD subtype and two moderate ODD subtypes with either defiant or irritable symptoms. The irritable ODD subtype and the severe ODD subtype were related to suicidality and comorbid affective/anxiety disorders. The irritable ODD subtype was the strongest predictor of criminal (violent) reoffending even when controlling for CD.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings confirm the presence of ODD dimensions/subtypes in a highly disturbed adolescent offender sample. Irritable youths were at risk of suicide and persistent criminal behaviours. Due to the severe consequences of irritability, a standardized assessment approach and a specific treatment is needed in prison to prevent suicide among the detainees and further harm to the society. As defined in the DSM-5, the present findings confirm the validity of ODD and ODD dimensions/subtypes as a diagnostic category among older youths.

Examining Specialization Among Sex Offenders Released From Prison

A prevailing cultural stereotype about sex offenders is that they tend to specialize in sexual offending. Many recent policy developments-mainly aimed to restrict the liberties of sex offenders-are rooted in this idea. We examined the correctional and arrest records of a sample of 312 sex offenders released on parole in Colorado to determine the prevalence of sexual specialization among these offenders, and to compare the legal and social characteristics of specialists and versatile sex offenders. Overall we found that very few participants officially classified as sex offenders fit the specialist stereotype. Study participants generally displayed versatile histories of criminal offending. We also found that specialists were distinguishable from versatile offenders on certain indices of social integration and mental health, and they were more likely to have had a history of offending against children.

Child maltreatment victimization by type in relation to criminal recidivism in juvenile offenders

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to examine the relation between different types of child abuse victimization and criminal recidivism among juvenile offenders.

METHOD

Secondary analyses were conducted on data collected with the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment and general recidivism. The sample consisted of female (n = 3502) and male (n = 10,111) juvenile offenders.

RESULTS

For male juvenile offenders, neglect and physical abuse victimization were significantly but rather weakly associated with both general and violent recidivism. For female juvenile offenders, neglect and physical abuse were weakly associated with general recidivism, but not with violent recidivism. Sexual abuse was not related to either general or violent recidivism in both male and female juvenile offenders. Most associations between dynamic (treatable) risk domains and recidivism were stronger in male juvenile offenders than in female juvenile offenders. In addition, most risk domains were more strongly related to general recidivism than to violent felony recidivism. For male juvenile offenders, neglect victimization was uniquely related to general recidivism whereas physical abuse victimization was uniquely related to violent recidivism, over and above dynamic risk factors for recidivism. For female juvenile offenders none of the maltreatment variables were uniquely related to general or violent felony recidivism.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood experiences of neglect and physical abuse predict reoffending in male juvenile offenders, pointing at a possible need to address these in risk management interventions.

Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation

Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization.

Predicting general criminal recidivism in mentally disordered offenders using a random forest approach

BACKGROUND

Psychiatric expert opinions are supposed to assess the accused individual's risk of reoffending based on a valid scientific foundation. In contrast to specific recidivism, general recidivism has only been poorly considered in Continental Europe; we therefore aimed to develop a valid instrument for assessing the risk of general criminal recidivism of mentally ill offenders.

METHOD

Data of 259 mentally ill offenders with a median time at risk of 107 months were analyzed and combined with the individuals' criminal records. We derived risk factors for general criminal recidivism and classified re-offences by using a random forest approach.

RESULTS

In our sample of mentally ill offenders, 51% were reconvicted. The most important predictive factors for general criminal recidivism were: number of prior convictions, age, type of index offence, diversity of criminal history, and substance abuse. With our statistical approach we were able to correctly identify 58-95% of all reoffenders and 65-97% of all committed offences (AUC = .90).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study presents a new statistical approach to forensic-psychiatric risk-assessment, allowing experts to evaluate general risk of reoffending in mentally disordered individuals, with a special focus on high-risk groups. This approach might serve not only for expert opinions in court, but also for risk management strategies and therapeutic interventions.

Specialization in and within sexual offending in England and Wales

Existing evidence suggests that offenders tend not to specialize in sexual offending in general but that there is some specialization in particular types of sexual offending. This study examined the sexual histories and reoffending of a large, national data set of offenders convicted of a sexual offense and managed in England and Wales by the National Offender Management Service (N = 14,804). The study found that specialization in sexual offending compared to nonsexual offending was most evident for offenders with convictions for accessing indecent images. We also found considerable evidence of specialization within sexual offending, most notably for noncontact offenders, especially again indecent images offenders. Crossover between sexual offense types was very rare for those with contact adult offenses and for noncontact offenders although those with child contact offenses sometimes crossed over to indecent images reoffending. If specialization within sexual offending exists, the use of single risk assessment instruments to predict all types of sexual recidivism may be less effective than previously assumed. A comparison of different prediction models indicated that some items presently used in one-size-fits-all risk tools to predict any sexual reoffending only effectively predict certain subtypes of sexual offending. Statistically there appear to be some potential benefits to creating specialist risk predictors for different subtypes of offending, but further work is needed to justify the implementation demands that would be caused by abandoning one-size-fits-all tools.

Risk factors for criminal recidivism - a prospective follow-up study in prisoners with substance abuse

BACKGROUND

Substance use in general has been shown to predict criminal recidivism. The present study aimed to examine potential predictors of criminal recidivism, including substance-specific substance use patterns, in prisoners with substance use.

METHODS

A cohort of prisoners with substance use problems (N = 4,152) were assessed with the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) in the Swedish criminal justice system. Clients were followed for an average of 2.7 years. Criminal recidivism was defined as any return to the criminal justice system.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 69 percent (n = 2,862) returned to the criminal justice system. Recidivism was associated with amphetamine and heroin use, with an additive risk for injectors, and with polysubstance use. Also, recidivism was negatively associated with alcohol, other opioids than heroin/methadone and with hallucinogenic drugs, and positively associated with previous psychiatric in-patient treatment, violent behaviour, and with a shorter index sentence. Associations remained when controlling for type of crime.

CONCLUSIONS

Even when controlling for type and severity of crime, and for psychiatric problems, risk of criminal relapse was increased by substance use variables, including amphetamine, heroin and polysubstance use, and an additional risk was shown for injection drug users. These findings have implications for the need for substance abuse treatment after release from prison.