Clinical validation of a new control-oriented model of insulin and glucose dynamics in subjects with type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND

The development of an artificial pancreas requires an accurate representation of diabetes pathophysiology to create effective and safe control systems for automatic insulin infusion regulation. The aim of the present study is the assessment of a previously developed mathematical model of insulin and glucose metabolism in type 1 diabetes and the evaluation of its effectiveness for the development and testing of control algorithms.

METHODS

Based on the already existing "minimal model" a new mathematical model was developed composed of glucose and insulin submodels. The glucose model includes the representation of peripheral uptake, hepatic uptake and release, and renal clearance. The insulin model describes the kinetics of exogenous insulin injected either subcutaneously or intravenously. The estimation of insulin sensitivity allows the model to personalize parameters to each subject. Data sets from two different clinical trials were used here for model validation through simulation studies. The first set had subcutaneous insulin injection, while the second set had intravenous insulin injection. The root mean square error between simulated and real blood glucose profiles (G(rms)) and the Clarke error grid analysis were used to evaluate the system efficacy.

RESULTS

Results from our study demonstrated the model's capability in identifying individual characteristics even under different experimental conditions. This was reflected by an effective simulation as indicated by G(rms), and clinical acceptability by the Clarke error grid analysis, in both clinical data series.

CONCLUSIONS

Simulation results confirmed the capacity of the model to faithfully represent the glucose-insulin relationship in type 1 diabetes in different circumstances.

Control oriented model of insulin and glucose dynamics in type 1 diabetics

The aim of the study was to realize a mathematical model of insulin-glucose relationship in type I diabetes and test its effectiveness for the design of control algorithms in external artificial pancreas. A new mathematical model, divided into glucose and insulin sub-models, was developed from the so-called "minimal model". The key feature is the representation of insulin sensitivity so as to permit the personalisation of the parameters. Real-time applications are based on an insulin standardised model. Clinical data were used to estimate model parameters. Root mean square error between simulated and real blood glucose profiles (G(rms)) was used to evaluate system efficacy. Results from parameter estimation and insulin standardisation showed a good capability of the model to identify individual characteristics. Simulation results with a G(rms) 1.30 mmol/l in the worst case testified the capacity of the model to accurately represent glucose-insulin relationship in type 1 diabetes allowing self tuning in real time.

Integrating model-based decision support in a multi-modal reasoning system for managing type 1 diabetic patients

We present a multi-modal reasoning (MMR) methodology that integrates case-based reasoning (CBR), rule-based reasoning (RBR) and model-based reasoning (MBR), meant to provide physicians with a reliable decision support tool in the context of type 1 diabetes mellitus management. In particular, we have implemented a decision support system that is able to jointly exploit a probabilistic model of the glucose-insulin system at the steady state, a RBR system for suggestion generation and a CBR system for patient's profiling. The integration of the CBR, RBR and MBR paradigms allows for an optimized exploitation of all the available information, and for the definition of a therapy properly tailored to the patient's needs, overcoming the single approaches limitations. The system has been tested both on simulated and on real patients' data.