Do Young Drivers Become Safer After Being Involved in a Collision?

A Description-Experience Framework of the Psychology of Risk

The modern world holds countless risks for humanity, both large-scale and intimately personal—from cyberwarfare, pandemics, and climate change to sexually transmitted diseases and drug use and abuse. Many risks have prompted institutional, regulatory, and technological countermeasures, the success of which depends to some extent on how individuals learn about the risks in question. We distinguish between two powerful but imperfect teachers of risk. First, people may learn by consulting symbolic and descriptive material, such as warnings, statistics, and images. More often than not, however, a risk’s fluidity defies precise description. Second, people may learn about risks through personal experience. Responses to risk can differ systematically depending on whether people learn through one mode, both, or neither. One reason for these differences—and by no means the only reason—is the discrepancy in the cognitive impact that rare events (typically the risk event) and common events (typically the nonoccurrence of the risk event) have on the decision maker. We propose a description–experience framework that highlights not only the impact of each mode of learning but also the effects of their interplay on individuals’ and collectives’ responses to risk. We outline numerous research questions and themes suggested by this framework.

Assessing Willingness to Engage in Risky Driving Behaviour Using Naturalistic Driving Footage: The Role of Age and Gender

Young novice drivers are more prone than older drivers to get involved in a risky driving situation. Some young drivers underestimate risk while overestimating their driving abilities, increasing the likelihood of engaging in risky behaviour. Age and inexperience both influence risk estimation, though it is not clear which of these variables is more important. Can drivers’ willingness to engage in risky behaviour be assessed in a similar way to hazard perception skill using video-based risky situations? The aim of the current study was to assess whether a video-based tool could measure the willingness to participate in risky driving situations and whether it can distinguish between different types of risky driving scenarios across gender and driver age groups. We also explored the moderating effect of age and gender on drivers’ experience in relation to the risky manoeuvres and participants’ willingness to engage in risky situations. Participants were presented with naturalistic videos from the perspective of the driver that contained active risky situations (result of driver’s own actions) and were asked to make a decision regarding a potential action (to overtake a bus/bicycle or pass through an amber light) and whether they would accelerate at this point. Participants reported that they were more willing to accelerate and overtake cyclists and buses and less willing to pass a light in amber. Young drivers were more willing to both engage in the risky behaviours and accelerate than older drivers, with young males reporting higher scores than the other groups. Gender differences were observed, with males being more prone to overtake and pass through a light in amber than females; however, this difference was not observed for the intention to accelerate. All the above effects remained when we tested the impact of experience on decision making while controlling for age and gender, although driving experience was no longer significant. These results demonstrate that drivers’ intention to assume risk can indeed be measured in a similar video-based methodology to that used by hazard perception tests. The findings raise the possibility of assessing and training drivers on a wider range of safety-related behaviours.

Learner Driver Experience and Teenagers' Crash Risk During the First Year of Independent Driving

IMPORTANCE

One mechanism for teenagers' elevated crash risk during independent driving may be inadequate learner driving experience.

OBJECTIVE

To determine how learner driver experience was associated with crash risk during the first year of independent driving.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Youth aged 15.5 to 16.1 years at recruitment were eligible to participate. Participants' vehicles were instrumented with sensors, and driving was recorded during the learner period through 1 year of independent driving. Data were collected from January 2011 through August 2014 in southwestern Virginia.

EXPOSURES

The amount, consistency and variety of practice, driving errors, and kinematic risky driving (KRD) rates during the learner period were recorded. Surveys, including one on sensation-seeking personality traits, were assessed at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cox proportional hazard regressions examined associations between individual characteristics and learner driving experience with driving time to first crash and all crashes in the first year of independent driving. So that hazard ratios (HRs) can be directly comparable, units of measurement were standardized to the interquartile range.

RESULTS

Of 298 individuals who responded to recruitment, 90 fulfilled the criteria and 82 completed the study (of whom 75 were white [91%] and 44 were girls [54%]). Teenage participants drove a mean (SD) of 1259.2 (939.7) miles over 89 days during the learner period. There were 49 property-damage crashes and/or police-reportable crashes during independent driving. Factors associated with driving time to first crash included higher sensation-seeking personality scale scores (HR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.08-2.57] per 0.75-unit increase), learner driving KRD rates (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.12-1.43] per 9.24-unit increase), and learner driving errors (HR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.22-0.86] per increase of 6.48 errors). Similar results were obtained for all crashes in the first year, with the addition of consistency of learner driving practice (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.38-0.99] per 0.23-unit increase).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Individual characteristics and learner driving experiences were associated with crash risk during independent driving. As expected, there was an association between sensation seeking and crashes. Elevated KRD rates during the learner period may reflect risky driving behavior among novices or tolerance to abrupt maneuvers by parents who supervise driving. Consistent practice throughout the learner period could reduce teenage crash risk, which is supported by learning theories indicating distributed practice is effective for developing expertise. Errors during practice may constitute learning events that reinforce safer driving. Physicians could encourage parents to provide opportunities for regular practice driving and monitor their teenager's KRD rates during the learner period using in-vehicle or smartphone-based technology.

Switched On: How the Timing of Aversive Content in Traffic Safety Videos Impact Psychophysiological Indicators of Message Processing

This study investigates how timing of the introduction of unpleasant emotional tone in a traffic safety video impacts the intensity of the viewer's emotional experience. Traffic safety advertising is a multi-million-dollar business in the United States. In many instances, 30-60 s ads are produced to raise awareness of the consequences of unsafe behaviors with the expectation that simply providing information will motivate safer behaviors. Producing videos intended to generate behavior change requires a complex understanding of what motivates behavior. Behavior change theory, neuroscience, and psychophysiology all provide guidance to improve the persuasive power of traffic safety videos. This study consisted of a 3 (message tone) × 3 (video) × 4 (order) repeated measures within subjects designed experiment. Participants (N = 75) were 20-30-year-old men who were shown nine traffic safety videos. Arousal intensity, attention, and negative emotion were tracked with the psychophysiological measures of skin conductance (measuring intensity of arousal), heart rate (measuring attention paid during the video), and corrugator muscle activation (measuring the negative emotional experience). Videos with three different aversive tones were used, low, high, and videos in which the tone switched from low to high aversive. Aversive tone is defined as stimuli that motivate a desire to escape or avoid something like death or pain. All videos were designed to prevent motor vehicle crashes. The results obtained from this study indicate that when attempting to persuade males aged 20-30 to practice safer driving behaviors, switched message tone appears to be the most effective message design in terms the intensity of emotional arousal and maintenance of attention.

Kinematic risky driving behavior among younger and older drivers: Differences over time by age group and sex

Objective: This research examined the incidence rates of elevated gravitational force events (kinematic risky driving, KRD) among 16- to 17-year-old drivers compared to those of 18- to 20-year-old, 21- to 25-year-old, and 35- to 55-year-old drivers over a 12-month period. Methods: Data were sampled from the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) naturalistic driving study that recruited a U.S. national sample of study participants. General linear mixed models (GLIMMIX) for recurrent events were used to estimate KRD incident rates for age cohorts in 3-month periods. Results: KRD incidence rates for 16- to 17-year-old drivers were higher than the rates for older drivers at each 3-month period. Analyses of individual differences for the 12-month period indicated that incidence rates for the 16- to 17-year-old group were 1.84 times higher than the rates for 18- to 20-year-old drivers, 2.86 higher than those for 21- to 25-year-old drivers, and 4.92 times higher than those for 35- to 55-year-old drivers. The incident rate for 16- to 17-year-old males was 1.9 times higher than that for same-aged females in the first 3 months and 2.3 times higher over 12 months. Over the study period, KRD rates of 16- to 17-year-old participants declined 24.5% among females and 18.0% among males. Conclusions: KRD rates were higher among younger relative to older, more experienced drivers and did not decline over time, consistent with a protracted period of risky driving behavior. The persistently higher KRD rate among young drivers suggests the need to enhance crash prevention approaches, such as feedback about abrupt maneuvering, to young drivers and their parents.

The driver-level crash risk associated with daily cellphone use and cellphone use while driving

This study examined the overall prevalence of cellphone use, including the rates of calls and texts both per day and hourly while driving, and assessed whether or not individual crash risk was correlated with cellphone use. The study used data from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study (SHRP 2 NDS), which had more than 3500 participants who provided up to three years of driving data. Of these participants, 620 provided cellphone records, 564 of which included both call and text records. The prevalence of cellphone calls and texts per day was calculated. By overlaying the cellphone records with the SHRP 2 NDS data, we also evaluated the rates of calls and texts while driving by driver demographics. Crashes for these cellphone-using participants were also identified from the SHRP 2 NDS data. Negative binomial regression models were used to determine whether the crash rate was associated with cellphone use. Participants made an average of 27.1 texts and 7.3 calls per day. They averaged 1.6 texts and 1.2 calls per hour of driving. Cellphone use varied significantly by age, especially for texting. The texting rate for drivers aged 16-19 was 59.4 per day and 2.9 per hour of driving, four times higher than the 14.3 per day and 1.0 per hour for drivers 30-64 years old. The texting rate for drivers 20-29 years old was also high at 42.4 per day and 2.6 per hour of driving. Participants experienced 243 crashes in 216,231 h of driving. It was found that those who texted more often per day or per hour of driving had higher crash rates after adjusting for age and gender effects. The severe crash rate increases 0.58% for every additional text per day and all 8.3% for every text per hour of driving; overall crash rate increases 0.41% for every additional text per day and 6.46% for every text per hour of driving. The results show that cellphone texting and calling are quite common while driving. The texting rate for young drivers is substantially higher than for middle-aged and senior drivers. This study confirmed that those who text at a higher rate are associated with a higher crash risk.

Driving in search of analyses

Although transportation safety has greatly improved over the past 2 decades, motor vehicle crash injuries remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly among young drivers. Driver errors and behaviors such as speeding and distraction contribute disproportionately to crashes among inexperienced novices, who develop safe driving judgment only with substantial driving experience, commonly described as the "young driver problem." Research on young drivers has applied a range of research methods, including analyses of national archival data (mainly from police reports), crash analyses, observation of driver behavior, surveys of driver behavior and dispositions, and experimental research on driver behavior and vehicle crash worthiness. Prominent research questions regarding young driver safety include what and how do novices learn to drive safely, what are the predictors of young driver crashes, what is the variability and overtime trajectories of young driver performance and outcomes, and to what extent is the young driver problem due mainly to average population risk or high-risk groups? Current research on young drivers is complicated by small sample sizes, relatively rare events, high within and between group variability, missing data, the need to estimate exposure, and the lack of longitudinal and experimental designs, problems that require complex analytic methods. In this paper, we provide an overview of driving research methods, examples of research addressing the young driver problem, and examples of statistical collaboration on young driver research, focusing particularly on estimating prediction of crash risk and estimating variability in young driver performance and outcomes.