Sex disparity in long-term stroke recurrence and mortality in a rural population in the United States

Proteomic and Demographic Comparisons of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke Patients

Rates of recurrent strokes have remained relatively unchanged over the past couple decades, highlighting a need for advancements in secondary prevention of stroke recurrence. This study utilizes the Blood And Clot Thrombectomy Registry And Collaboration (BACTRAC) tissue bank to identify proteomic and demographic differences in recurrent ischemic stroke patients. Blood samples were collected during mechanical thrombectomy of large-vessel occlusion ischemic strokes. Plasma levels for 184 inflammatory and cardiometabolic proteins were measured in systemic blood and intracranial blood from the infarction area. Differences between recurrent and first-stroke patients were analyzed using Fisher's Exact Test for categorical variables and Student's independent samples t tests or Welch's t tests for continuous variables. Proteins were divided into systemic and intracranial proteins, and independent samples t tests were performed with a False Discovery Rate of 5.0%. Significant variables were used in multiple logistic regression. There were 20 patients in the prior stroke group and 121 in the first stroke group. The prior stroke group had a significantly higher percentage of females (80.0% vs 50.4%, p = 0.016) and lower rate of hyperlipidemia comorbidity (10.5% vs 35.5%, p = 0.034). Two systemic proteins were significantly higher in those with a prior stroke: CCL14 and FGF-19. Multiple logistic regression found higher levels of CCL14 and FGF-19 to be predictive of a stroke being recurrent. Along with other demographics, these proteins could provide a predictive model to identify patients with risk of recurrent ischemic strokes. Serum CCL14 and FGF-19 levels are easily accessible biomarkers, making them possible therapeutic targets for recurrent stroke prevention.

Optical Spectroscopy of Cerebral Blood Flow for Tissue Interrogation in Ischemic Stroke Diagnosis

Ischemic stroke remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and early diagnosis is critical for improving clinical outcomes. This paper presents an optical design framework combining speckle contrast optical spectroscopy (SCOS) with multiwavelength reflectance spectroscopy to monitor subtle changes in cerebral blood flow during ischemic events. The research aims to enable precise tissue interrogation using high-resolution, low-scatter imaging. Key to the system's accuracy is a 1.55 μm small beam waist, a grating density of 1300 grooves/mm, and a 15.53 μm depth of focus. The calculated effective focal length of 8333.33 μm enhances the resolution to 4.07 μm, improving the detection of minor changes in tissue optical properties. We investigate the sensitivity of various near-infrared wavelengths (660, 785, 800, and 976 nm) to ischemic-induced changes, with particular emphasis on the 976 nm wavelength, which demonstrates superior tissue penetration and increased sensitivity to variations in blood perfusion and tissue density during ischemia. Optical markers such as spot-size widening, spatial intensity shifts, and central intensity decrease are identified as reliable indicators of ischemia. Our findings suggest that multiwavelength reflectance analysis, particularly in the near-infrared range, provides a practical, noninvasive approach for continuously monitoring ischemic strokes. This technique indicates potential for improving early diagnosis and real-time monitoring of cerebral perfusion, which allows for continuous, noninvasive monitoring of cerebral perfusion and management of ischemic strokes, improving patient outcomes and clinical decision-making.

Exploring Sex Differences in Outcomes of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy for Patients With Noncardioembolic Mild-to-Moderate Ischemic Stroke or High-Risk Transient Ischemic Attack: A Propensity-Matched Analysis of the READAPT Study Cohort

BACKGROUND

Sex may impact clinical outcomes in patients with stroke treated with dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT). We aimed to investigate the sex differences in the short-term outcomes of DAPT within a real-world population of patients with noncardioembolic mild-to-moderate ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack.

METHODS

We performed a propensity score-matched analysis from a prospective multicentric cohort study (READAPT [Real-Life Study on Short-Term Dual Antiplatelet Treatment in Patients With Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack]) by including patients with noncardioembolic mild-to-moderate stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 0-10) or high-risk transient ischemic attack (age, blood pressure, clinical features, duration of transient ischemic attack, presence of diabetes [ABCD2] ≥4) who initiated DAPT within 48 hours of symptom onset. The primary effectiveness outcome was the 90-day risk of new ischemic stroke or other vascular events. The secondary effectiveness outcomes were the 90-day modified Rankin Scale score ordinal shift, vascular and all-cause mortality, and 24-hour early neurological improvement or deterioration. The safety outcomes included the 90-day risk of moderate-to-severe and any bleeding, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, and 24-hour hemorrhagic transformation. Outcomes were compared between sexes using Cox and generalized ordinal logistic regression analyses, along with calculating risk differences and ratios.

RESULTS

From 2278 patients in the READAPT study cohort, we included 1643 mild-to-moderate strokes or high-risk transient ischemic attacks treated with DAPT (mean age, 69.8±12.0 years; 34.3% women). We matched 531 women and men. The 90-day risk of new ischemic stroke or other vascular events was significantly lower among women than men (hazard ratio, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.28-0.99]; P=0.039). There were no significant differences in secondary effectiveness outcomes. The 90-day risk of safety outcomes was extremely low and did not differ between women and men (moderate-to-severe bleedings: 0.4% versus 0.8%; P=0.413; symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage: 0.2% versus 0.4%; P=0.563). Subgroup analysis for primary effectiveness outcome showed a lower 90-day risk of new ischemic stroke or other vascular events among women aged <50 years, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of 0 to 5, prestroke modified Rankin Scale score <2, large artery atherosclerosis cause, and no diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that women with noncardioembolic mild-to-moderate stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack treated with DAPT may have lower short-term risk of recurrent ischemic events than men. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind potential sex-based differences in outcomes after DAPT use.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT05476081.

Do interaction and joint effects between physical activity and dietary inflammatory index modify stroke risk?

OBJECTIVE

Stroke is a major public health threat, and both physical activity (PA) and diet are modifiable risk factors for stroke. This study assessed the interaction and joint effects of PA and the dietary inflammatory index (DII) on stroke.

METHODS

We included 18,676 participants from the 2007-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The independent associations, interactions, and joint effects of PA and the DII on stroke were assessed by weighted multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The weighted mean age of the participants was 48.24 years, and comprised 703 individuals who had experienced a stroke. After adjusting for confounders, increased stroke risk was independently associated with a higher DII (Q4, odds ratio [OR]: 1.72, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-2.34) and insufficient PA (inactive, OR: 1.37, 95 % CI: 1.05-1.78). No significant multiplicative (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 0.34-1.93) or additive (relative excess risk due to interaction: 0.45, 95 % CI: 0.35-1.25) interactions were found between DII and PA. The results of joint associations indicated that individuals who consumed the most pro-inflammatory diet (DII, Q4) and were physically inactive (OR: 2.39, 95 % CI: 1.61-3.56) had the highest stroke risk than those who consumed the most anti-inflammatory diet (DII, Q1) and were physically active.

CONCLUSION

Active PA and low DII scores are independent protective factors against stroke. Although the multiplicative and additive effects of the DII and PA on stroke risk are not statistically significant, the analysis of their joint effects suggest that individuals who consume anti-inflammatory diets and exhibit active PA consistently have the lowest risk of stroke.

Gender disparities in all-cause mortality among individuals with early-onset cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Gender disparities in mortality among individuals with early-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) remain uncertain. This study aimed to investigate gender differences in all-cause mortality and identify influencing factors.

METHODS

Data extracted from the Kailuan Study, a prospective cohort study initiated in 2006, were analyzed. A total of 2,829 participants with early-onset CVD were included. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for gender disparities in all-cause mortality, adjusting for various factors.

RESULTS

Males experienced a median follow-up duration of 7.54 years with 276 recorded deaths, and females had a median follow-up of 6.45 years with 105 recorded deaths. Gender disparities in all-cause mortality were observed, with men experiencing a higher all-cause mortality risk compared to women (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.92) in the fully adjusted model. Both in men and women with early-onset CVD, elevated hs-CRP levels and an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 notably escalated the risk of all-cause mortality. Furthermore, the utilization of antiplatelet agents and successful blood glucose control might mitigate the risk of all-cause mortality. Smoking and eGFR decline modified the association between gender and all-cause death, women were more vulnerable to tobacco consumption and kidney misfunctioning than men (P-interaction = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

The study highlights gender disparities in all-cause mortality among individuals with early-onset CVD, with men experiencing a higher risk of mortality compared to women. Addressing these disparities is important for improving outcomes in this population. Further research is needed to develop sex-specific interventions and strategies to reduce gender-related mortality disparities in early-onset CVD.

Environmental Enrichment for Stroke and Traumatic Brain Injury: Mechanisms and Translational Implications

Acquired brain injuries, such as ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and traumatic brain injury (TBI), can cause severe neurologic damage and even death. Unfortunately, currently, there are no effective and safe treatments to reduce the high disability and mortality rates associated with these brain injuries. However, environmental enrichment (EE) is an emerging approach to treating and rehabilitating acquired brain injuries by promoting motor, sensory, and social stimulation. Multiple preclinical studies have shown that EE benefits functional recovery, including improved motor and cognitive function and psychological benefits mediated by complex protective signaling pathways. This article provides an overview of the enriched environment protocols used in animal models of ischemic stroke, ICH, and TBI, as well as relevant clinical studies, with a particular focus on ischemic stroke. Additionally, we explored studies of animals with stroke and TBI exposed to EE alone or in combination with multiple drugs and other rehabilitation modalities. Finally, we discuss the potential clinical applications of EE in future brain rehabilitation therapy and the molecular and cellular changes caused by EE in rodents with stroke or TBI. This article aims to advance preclinical and clinical research on EE rehabilitation therapy for acquired brain injury. © 2024 American Physiological Society. Compr Physiol 14:5291-5323, 2024.

Stroke Recurrence Following 28 Days After First Stroke in Men and Women 2012 to 2020: Observations From the Swedish Stroke Register

Background Stroke incidence, care, and survival show continuous improvements in Sweden, including no or decreasing disparities between men and women. In this study, we aimed to estimate and compare the risk of stroke recurrence in men and women over time, accounting for the competing risk of death. Methods and Results We included adult patients with first-time stroke (ischemic or intracerebral hemorrhage) registered in Riksstroke (the Swedish Stroke Register), 2012 to 2020, and followed until December 2020. Stroke recurrences included new events registered in Riksstroke from 28 days after stroke. To account for the competing risk of death, we used the cumulative incidence function to estimate crude incidences, and multivariable Cox regression to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) adjusting for differences in patients' risk factor profiles. The study included 72 148 (53.5%) men and 62 689 (46.5%) women. We observed 10 925 stroke recurrences and 81 811 deaths following the initial 28 days after the first stroke. The cumulative incidence of stroke recurrence was 3.7% (95% CI, 3.6-3.8) after 1 year, 7.0 (95% CI, 6.8-7.1) after 3 years, and 9.1% (95% CI, 8.9-9.3) after 5 years. The incidence decreased substantially during the study period (HR, 2019-2020 versus 2012, 0.824 [95% CI, 0.759-0.894]). Overall, men had a lower risk of stroke recurrence. After adjustments for differences in patient characteristics, men had a slightly higher risk of recurrence (of any type) after an ischemic stroke (HR, 1.090 [95% CI, 1.045-1.138]) and a lower risk after hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 0.880 [95% CI, 0.781-0.991]) compared with women. Conclusions The risk of stroke recurrence has decreased in both men and women. Women's higher age and other differences in risk factors partly explain their higher risk of stroke recurrence compared with men.

One-year recurrence of stroke and death in Lebanese survivors of first-ever stroke: Time-to-Event analysis

BACKGROUND

To date, despite the application of secondary prevention worldwide, first-ever stroke survivors remain at imminent risk of stroke recurrence and death in the short and long term. The present study aimed to assess the cumulative risk rates and identify baseline differences and stroke characteristics of Lebanese survivors.

METHODS

A prospective longitudinal study was conducted among survivors ≥18 years old who were followed-up for 15 months through a face-to-face interview. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative rates of stroke mortality and recurrence. Cox-regression univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the predictors of both outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 150 subjects (mean age 74 ± 12 years; 58.7% men vs. 44.3% women; 95.3% with ischemic stroke vs. 4.3% with intracerebral hemorrhage), high cumulative risk rates of stroke recurrence (25%) and death (21%) were highlighted, especially in the acute phase. Survival rates were lesser in patients with stroke recurrence compared to those without recurrence (Log rank test p < 0.001). Older age was the main predictor for both outcomes (p < 0.02). Large artery atherosclerosis was predominant in patients with stroke recurrence and death compared to small vessel occlusion (p < 0.02). Higher mental component summary scores of quality of life were inversely associated with stroke recurrence (p < 0.01). Lebanese survivors exhibited the highest percentages of depression and anxiety; elevated Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) scores were seen in those with stroke recurrence and those who died (≥80% with mean HADS scores ≥8). Lower Mini-Mental State Examination scores at the acute phase increased the risk of both outcomes by 10% (p < 0.03). Three out of 13 mortalities (23.1%) were presented with early epileptic seizures (p = 0.012). High educational level was the protective factor against stroke recurrence (p = 0.019). Administration of intravenous thrombolysis decreased the risk of both outcomes by 10% (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Higher rates of stroke recurrence and death were observed in the first year following a stroke in Lebanon. Various factors were identified as significant determinants. Thus, health care providers and officials in Lebanon can use these findings to implement effective preventive strategies to best address the management of these factors to reduce the stroke burden and improve the short and long-term prognosis of stroke survivors.

Long-term mortality in ischemic stroke patients with concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Long-term mortality in ischemic stroke patients with concomitant COPD has been largely unexplored. This study aimed to compare long-term all-cause mortality in ischemic stroke patients with and without COPD.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of ischemic stroke patients with and without COPD in the Geisinger Neuroscience Ischemic Stroke database to examine all-cause mortality up to 3 years using Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Of the 6,589 ischemic stroke patients included in this study, 5,525 (83.9%) did not have COPD (group A). Group B (n=1,006) consisted of patients with COPD diagnosis by ICD-9/10-CM codes. COPD patients in Group C (n=233) were diagnosed by spirometry, and in Group D (n=175) by both ICD-9/10-CM codes and spirometry confirmation. The survival probabilities at three years in Group B, C, and D were significantly lower than in Group A. Group B (HR=1.262, 95% CI 1.122-1.42, p<0.001) and group C (HR=1.251, 95% CI 1.01-1.55, p=0.041) had significantly lower hazard of mortality compared to group A. There was no significant difference in survival between COPD subtypes of chronic bronchitis and emphysema. Patients in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2 stage had an increased mortality hazard compared to the GOLD 1 stage.

CONCLUSIONS

While ischemic stroke patients with preexisting COPD have worse long-term survival than those without COPD, the results largely depended on the definition of COPD used. These results suggest that ischemic stroke patients with COPD need more personalized medical care to decrease long-term mortality.

Predictors of Post-Stroke Depression: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Despite reports of a high incidence and various predictors of post-stroke depression (PSD), the underdiagnosis and undertreatment rates of PSD are still high. This study aimed to examine the incidence of depression in stroke patients and identify factors associated with PSD. This was a retrospective cohort study on ischemic stroke patients from the Geisinger Neuroscience Ischemic Stroke (GNSIS) registry. The following statistical analyses were performed to predict PSD in the studied population: a Kaplan−Meier estimator and a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 5882 patients were included in the study. The median age at the time of an ischemic stroke was 72 years and 56% were males. A total of 294 patients were diagnosed with PSD within one year of a stroke. The cumulative incidence of depression was found to be 6.4% (95% CI 5.7−7.1%) at one year for the entire cohort. Women were found to have a higher risk of PSD than men (HR for women = 1.47, 95% CI 1.18−1.85, p = 0.001). A history of prior stroke (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.18−2.11, p = 0.002) and myocardial infarction (HR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.05−2.06, p = 0.025) were associated with PSD. Medicaid patients had a higher risk for PSD (HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.5−3.12, p < 0.001) than those with commercial insurance or health maintenance organization plans. Our findings showed that women, patients with a history of prior stroke or myocardial infarction, and with Medicaid insurance were more likely to develop PSD. Through an observational study on the EHR data, we confirmed that chronic stress, including financial and health-related stress, irrespective of age, significantly increased the risk for PSD.

Sex differences in the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack

Background

Sex differences in stroke outcomes have been noted, but whether this extends to stroke recurrence is unclear. We examined sex differences in recurrent stroke using data from the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial.

Patients and methods

We assessed the risk of recurrent stroke in women compared to men using data from the POINT trial. Adults >18 years old were randomized within 12 hours of onset of minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and followed for up to 90 days for ischemic stroke, our primary outcome. We used Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for demographics and stroke risk factors to evaluate the association between sex and stroke recurrence. We used interaction term testing and prespecified subgroup analyses to determine if the association between sex and recurrent stroke differed by age (<60 versus >60 years old), locale (US versus non-US), and index event type (stroke versus TIA). Last, we evaluated whether sex modified the effect of common stroke risk factors on stroke recurrence.

Results

Of 4,881 POINT trial participants with minor stroke or high-risk TIA, 2,195 (45%) were women. During the 90-day follow-up period, 267 ischemic strokes occurred; 121 were in women and 146 in men. The cumulative risk of recurrent ischemic stroke was not significantly different among women (5.76%; 95% CI, 4.84%-6.85%) compared to men (5.67%; 95% CI, 4.83%-6.63%). Women were not at a different risk of recurrent ischemic stroke compared to men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; 95% CI, 0.80-1.30) in unadjusted models or after adjusting for covariates. However, there was a significant interaction of age with sex (P=0.04). Among patients <60 years old, there was a non-significantly lower risk of recurrent stroke in women compared to men (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.42-1.05). Last, sex did not modify the association between common stroke risk factors and recurrent stroke risk.

Discussion and Conclusion

Among patients with minor stroke or TIA, the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and the impact of common stroke risk factors did not differ between men and women.

Comparison of Long-Term Outcomes and Associated Factors between Younger and Older Rural Ischemic Stroke Patients

Introduction: The rise of ischemic stroke among young adults has stressed the need to understand their risk profiles and outcomes better. This study aimed to examine the five-year ischemic stroke recurrence and survival probability among young patients in rural Pennsylvania. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included first-time ischemic stroke patients from the Geisinger Health System between September 2003 and May 2014. The outcomes included all-cause mortality and ischemic stroke recurrence at five years. Kaplan-Meier estimator, cumulative incidence function, Cox proportional hazards model, and Cause-specific hazard model were used to examine the association of independent variables with the outcomes. Results: A total of 4459 first-time ischemic stroke patients were included in the study, with 664 (14.9%) patients in the 18−55 age group and 3795 (85.1%) patients in the >55 age group. In the 18−55 age group, the five-year survival probability was 87.2%, and the cumulative incidence of recurrence was 8%. Patients in the 18−55 age group had significantly lower hazard for all-cause mortality (HR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.29−0.46, p < 0.001), and non-significant hazard for five-year recurrence (HR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.58−1.12, p = 0.193) compared to the >55 age group. Chronic kidney disease was found to be associated with increased mortality in the 18−55 age group. Conclusion: In our rural population, younger ischemic stroke patients were at the same risk of long-term ischemic stroke recurrence as the older ischemic stroke patients. Identifying the factors and optimizing adequate long-term secondary prevention may reduce the risk of poor outcomes among younger ischemic stroke patients.

The Impact of Sex and Gender on Stroke

Women face a disproportionate burden of stroke mortality and disability. Biologic sex and sociocultural gender both contribute to differences in stroke risk factors, assessment, treatment, and outcomes. There are substantial differences in the strength of association of stroke risk factors, as well as female-specific risk factors. Moreover, there are differences in presentation, response to treatment, and stroke outcomes in women. This review outlines current knowledge of impact of sex and gender on stroke, as well as delineates research gaps and areas for future inquiry.

Analysis of Prognostic Risk Factors for Ischemic Stroke in China: A Multicentre Retrospective Clinical Study; A National Survey in China

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a serious disease that threatens human health both in China and worldwide. Identifying and establishing its risk factors are prerequisites for intervention and evaluation of prognosis. Over the years, risk factors, such as age, diabetes, and hypertension, have gradually been established. However, at present, there is no consensus on the influence of sex on the prognosis of ischaemic stroke.

AIMS

The aims of our research was to analyse the correlation between sex and poststroke prognosis based on the results of the Third China National Stroke Registry [CNSR-III], as well as the influence of other risk factors that may be confounded by sex on ischaemic stroke and potential interventions.

METHODS

The CNSR-III recruited 14146 acute ischaemic stroke [AIS] patients between 2015 and 2018. Our study included 13,972 patients who had complete follow-up information. This research analysed basic information, socioeconomic status, lifestyle habits, medical history, and poststroke prognosis.

RESULTS

There was a conspicuous relationship between sex and functional prognosis, stroke recurrence and all-cause death due to ischemic stroke in univariate analysis. Male stroke patients had a better prognosis than female patients. In multivariate analysis, we found that age, atrial fibrillation [AF], diabetes, hypertension and the severity of stroke had adverse effects on ischemic stroke prognosis. After adjustment for other risk factors, the functional prognosis of female patients at 3 months was worse than that of male patients [odds ratio [OR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.025- 1.314]. Sex had a nonsignificant association with stroke recurrence at 3 months [hazard ratio [HR] 1.141, 95% CI, 0.975-1.336]. Furthermore, compared to male patients, female stroke patients had a lower cumulative death rate at 12 months [HR 0.777, 95% CI, 0.628-0.963].

CONCLUSION

Our study identified sex differences in stroke-related disability, recurrence, and death and attempted to explain the causes of these differences. Our study clearly showed that a large proportion of this difference could be attributed to age, socioeconomic factors, lifestyle habits, and medical history, confounded by sex differences rather than sex per se.

"Lessons Learned" Preventing Recurrent Ischemic Strokes through Secondary Prevention Programs: A Systematic Review

Recurrent ischemic strokes are a cause of significant healthcare burdens globally. Patients with uncontrolled vascular risk factors are more likely to develop recurrent ischemic strokes. This study aims to compile information gained from current secondary prevention programs. A pre-defined literature search strategy was applied to PubMed, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and Google Scholar databases, and studies from 1997 to 2020 were evaluated for quality, study aims, and outcomes. The search produced 1175 articles (1092 after duplicates were removed) and titles were screened; 55 titles were retained for the full-text analysis. Of the remaining studies, 31 were retained for assessment, five demonstrated long-term effectiveness, eight demonstrated short-term effectiveness, and 18 demonstrated no effectiveness. The successful studies utilized a variety of different techniques in the categories of physical fitness, education, and adherence to care plans to reduce the risk of recurrent strokes. The lessons we learned from the current prevention programs included (1) offer tailored care for underserved groups, (2) control blood pressure, (3) provide opportunities for medication dosage titration, (4) establish the care plan prior to discharge, (5) invest in supervised exercise programs, (6) remove barriers to accessing care in low resource settings, and (7) improve the transition of care.

Predicting short and long-term mortality after acute ischemic stroke using EHR

OBJECTIVE

Despite improvements in treatment, stroke remains a leading cause of mortality and long-term disability. In this study, we leveraged administrative data to build predictive models of short- and long-term post-stroke all-cause-mortality.

METHODS

The study was conducted and reported according to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guideline. We used patient-level data from electronic health records, three algorithms, and six prediction windows to develop models for post-stroke mortality.

RESULTS

We included 7144 patients from which 5347 had survived their ischemic stroke after two years. The proportion of mortality was between 8%(605/7144) within 1-month, to 25%(1797/7144) for the 2-years window. The three most common comorbidities were hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes. The best Area Under the ROC curve(AUROC) was reached with the Random Forest model at 0.82 for the 1-month prediction window. The negative predictive value (NPV) was highest for the shorter prediction windows - 0.91 for the 1-month - and the best positive predictive value (PPV) was reached for the 6-months prediction window at 0.92. Age, hemoglobin levels, and body mass index were the top associated factors. Laboratory variables had higher importance when compared to past medical history and comorbidities. Hypercoagulation state, smoking, and end-stage renal disease were more strongly associated with long-term mortality.

CONCLUSION

All the selected algorithms could be trained to predict the short and long-term mortality after stroke. The factors associated with mortality differed depending on the prediction window. Our classifier highlighted the importance of controlling risk factors, as indicated by laboratory measures.

Machine Learning-Enabled 30-Day Readmission Model for Stroke Patients

Background and Purpose: Hospital readmissions impose a substantial burden on the healthcare system. Reducing readmissions after stroke could lead to improved quality of care especially since stroke is associated with a high rate of readmission. The goal of this study is to enhance our understanding of the predictors of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke and develop models to identify high-risk individuals for targeted interventions. Methods: We used patient-level data from electronic health records (EHR), five machine learning algorithms (random forest, gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting-XGBoost, support vector machine, and logistic regression-LR), data-driven feature selection strategy, and adaptive sampling to develop 15 models of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke. We further identified important clinical variables. Results: We included 3,184 patients with ischemic stroke (mean age: 71 ± 13.90 years, men: 51.06%). Among the 61 clinical variables included in the model, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score above 24, insert indwelling urinary catheter, hypercoagulable state, and percutaneous gastrostomy had the highest importance score. The Model's AUC (area under the curve) for predicting 30-day readmission was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.64-0.78) with PPV of 0.43 when the XGBoost algorithm was used with ROSE-sampling. The balance between specificity and sensitivity improved through the sampling strategy. The best sensitivity was achieved with LR when optimized with feature selection and ROSE-sampling (AUC: 0.64, sensitivity: 0.53, specificity: 0.69). Conclusions: Machine learning-based models can be designed to predict 30-day readmission after stroke using structured data from EHR. Among the algorithms analyzed, XGBoost with ROSE-sampling had the best performance in terms of AUC while LR with ROSE-sampling and feature selection had the best sensitivity. Clinical variables highly associated with 30-day readmission could be targeted for personalized interventions. Depending on healthcare systems' resources and criteria, models with optimized performance metrics can be implemented to improve outcomes.

Adherence to anticoagulant guideline for atrial fibrillation: A large care gap among stroke patients in a rural population

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with oral anticoagulant undertreatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) among a cohort of rural patients with stroke outcomes and examine how undertreatment may influence a patient's one-year survival after stroke.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined ischemic stroke patients with pre-stroke AF diagnosis from September 2003 to May 2019 and divided them into proper treatment and undertreatment group. Analysis included chi-square test, variance analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test, logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier estimator, and Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

Out of 1062 ischemic stroke patients with a pre-stroke AF diagnosis, 1015 patients had a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥2, and 532 (52.4%) of those were undertreated. Median time from AF diagnosis to index stroke was significantly lower among undertreated patients (1.9 years vs. 3.6 years, p < 0.001). Other thromboembolism, excluding stroke, TIA, and myocardial infarction (OR 0.41, p < 0.001), the number of encounters per year (OR 0.90, p < 0.001), and the median time between AF diagnosis and stroke event (OR 0.86, p < 0.001) were negatively associated with undertreatment. Kaplan-Meier estimator showed no statistical difference in the one-year survival probability between groups (log-rank test, p = 0.29), while the Cox-Hazard model showed that age (HR 1.05, p < 0.001) and history of congestive heart failure (HR 1.88, p < 0.001) increased the risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of our rural stroke patients with a pre-index AF diagnosis were not on guideline-recommended treatment. The study highlights a large care gap and an opportunity to improve AF management.

Obesity and mortality after the first ischemic stroke: Is obesity paradox real?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Obesity is an established risk factor for ischemic stroke but the association of increased body mass index (BMI) with survival after ischemic stroke remains controversial. Many studies have shown that increased BMI has a "protective" effect on survival after stroke while other studies have debunked the "obesity paradox". This study aimed at examining the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality at one year in first-time ischemic stroke patients using a large dataset extracted from different resources including electronic health records.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive ischemic stroke patients captured in our Geisinger NeuroScience Ischemic Stroke (GNSIS) database. Survival in first-time ischemic stroke patients in different BMI categories was analyzed using Kaplan Meier survival curves. The predictors of mortality at one-year were assessed using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Among 6,703 first-time ischemic stroke patients, overweight and obese patients were found to have statistically decreased hazard ratio (HR) compared to the non-overweight patients (overweight patients- HR = 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.72]; obese patients- HR = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.48-0.67]). Predictors with a significant increase in the hazard ratio for one-year mortality were age at the ischemic stroke event, history of neoplasm, atrial fibrillation/flutter, diabetes, myocardial infarction and heart failure.

CONCLUSION

Our study results support the obesity paradox in ischemic stroke patients as shown by a significantly decreased hazard ratio for one-year mortality among overweight and obese patients in comparison to non-overweight patients.