Machine Learning Outperforms Regression Analysis to Predict Next-Season Major League Baseball Player Injuries: Epidemiology and Validation of 13,982 Player-Years From Performance and Injury Profile Trends, 2000-2017

Pitch-Specific Advanced Analytic and Pitch-Tracking Risk Factors for Ulnar Collateral Ligament Injuries in Major League Baseball Pitchers

BACKGROUND

The utilization of new pitch-tracking metrics has driven player development and provides more predictive pitch-specific data on physical characteristics and performance. Given the differences in each pitcher's arsenal, these pitch-specific metrics provide new potential variables to investigate ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury risk.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the association of several pitch-specific advanced analytic and pitch-tracking metrics on UCL surgery rates in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers.

STUDY DESIGN

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective case-control study on all MLB pitchers who underwent primary UCL reconstruction or repair from April 2018 to November 2023. Exclusion criteria included pitchers without 2 qualifying seasons of preoperative pitch-tracking data or who previously underwent UCL surgery. Matched controls were identified in a 2:1 manner by using season, age, position, handedness, and pitch count as covariates. Pitch-specific advanced analytic and pitch-tracking metrics used commonly in the evaluation of MLB players were collected from public web sources sponsored by MLB. Statistical analysis consisted of unpaired t tests comparing preinjury metrics between the case and control groups, along with binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 115 MLB pitchers who underwent UCL reconstruction or repair were compared with 230 matched controls. Increased velocity for fastballs, changeups, and sinkers were all associated with UCL surgery. A decreased horizontal release point for fastballs, curveballs, and sinkers were also associated with UCL surgery, along with an increased horizontal approach angle above average for fastballs and sinkers. An increased spin rate for sliders and an increased release extension for cutters were also associated with surgery. Large statistically significant differences in Pitching+ and Location+ for fastballs, changeups, and sinkers, and in Stuff+ for changeups, were associated with surgery. There were no differences in pitch-specific pitch count, active spin, spin axis, vertical release point or approach angle, or overall pitch movement between cases and controls. Binary logistic regression showed that higher velocity fastballs, sliders, and changeups were all associated with UCL surgery, along with sliders with a higher spin rate and cutters with a longer release extension.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that pitch-specific associations with UCL surgery exist compared with matched controls. Specifically, higher velocity fastballs, sliders, and changeups were all associated with UCL surgery, along with sliders with a higher spin rate and cutters with a longer release extension. Fastballs, changeups, and sinkers with superior ability (Pitching+) and command (Location+) were also associated with UCL surgery. While fastball velocity appears to play a role in the rise of UCL injuries, recent trends in decreased fastball usage and improved secondary pitches suggest that an increased focus on entire pitching arsenals is warranted. This study investigated a number of pitch-specific advanced analytic and pitch-tracking metrics as potentially new variables to assess UCL injury risk.

Enhanced personalized prediction of baseball-related upper extremity injuries through novel features and explainable artificial intelligence

Upper extremity injuries in baseball players demand advanced prevention. Our study analyzed clinical features using machine learning techniques to provide precise and individualized injury risk assessment and prediction. We recruited 98 baseball players and collected data on glenohumeral internal/external rotation, posterior capsule thickness, supraspinatus tendon thickness, acromiohumeral distance, and occupation ratio. Players were monitored for upper extremity injuries throughout a baseball season. We evaluated the predictive accuracy of these clinical variables using five models: Glenohumeral Internal Rotation Deficit (GIRD), Logistic Regression, Random Forest, CatBoost, and Support Vector Machine. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis was used to clarify each feature's role in injury prediction. During the season, 28 players experienced injuries. CatBoost (accuracy: 0.70 ± 0.05; AUC: 0.66 ± 0.05) and logistic regression (accuracy: 0.63 ± 0.07; AUC: 0.64 ± 0.08) excelled in bootstrapped evaluations and performed well in independent tests, with CatBoost maintaining an accuracy of 0.70 and an AUC of 0.62. Including GIRD had a negligible effect on CatBoost's accuracy. This integration with SHAP analyses enables a better understanding of each clinical feature's role in predicting injuries, laying the foundation for personalized injury prevention strategies. With these novel approaches, overall and individualized injury prediction can be enhanced, and future research in sports medicine can be advanced.

Machine learning approaches to injury risk prediction in sport: a scoping review with evidence synthesis

OBJECTIVE

This study reviewed the current state of machine learning (ML) research for the prediction of sports-related injuries. It aimed to chart the various approaches used and assess their efficacy, considering factors such as data heterogeneity, model specificity and contextual factors when developing predictive models.

DESIGN

Scoping review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBASE, SportDiscus and IEEEXplore.

RESULTS

In total, 1241 studies were identified, 58 full texts were screened, and 38 relevant studies were reviewed and charted. Football (soccer) was the most commonly investigated sport. Area under the curve (AUC) was the most common means of model evaluation; it was reported in 71% of studies. In 60% of studies, tree-based solutions provided the highest statistical predictive performance. Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were found to provide the highest performance for injury risk prediction. Logistic regression outperformed ML methods in 4 out of 12 studies. Three studies reported model performance of AUC>0.9, yet the clinical relevance is questionable.

CONCLUSIONS

A variety of different ML models have been applied to the prediction of sports-related injuries. While several studies report strong predictive performance, their clinical utility can be limited, with wide prediction windows or broad definitions of injury. The efficacy of ML is hampered by small datasets and numerous methodological heterogeneities (cohort sizes, definition of injury and dependent variables), which were common across the reviewed studies.

Generative Artificial Intelligence and Prompt Engineering: A Primer for Orthopaedic Surgeons

» Generative artificial intelligence (AI), a rapidly evolving field, has the potential to revolutionize orthopedic care by enhancing diagnostic accuracy, treatment planning, and patient management through data-driven insights and personalized strategies.» Unlike traditional AI, generative AI has the potential to generate relevant information for orthopaedic surgeons when instructed through prompts, automating tasks such as literature reviews, streamlining workflows, predicting health outcomes, and improving patient interactions.» Prompt engineering is essential for crafting effective prompts for large language models (LLMs), ensuring accurate and reliable AI-generated outputs, and promoting ethical decision-making in clinical settings.» Orthopaedic surgeons can choose between various prompt types-including open-ended, focused, and choice-based prompts-to tailor AI responses for specific clinical tasks to enhance the precision and utility of generated information.» Understanding the limitations of LLMs, such as token limits, context windows, and hallucinations, is crucial for orthopaedic surgeons to effectively use generative AI while addressing ethical concerns related to bias, privacy, and accountability.

Predicting extended hospital stay following revision total hip arthroplasty: a machine learning model analysis based on the ACS-NSQIP database

INTRODUCTION

Prolonged length of stay (LOS) following revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) can lead to increased healthcare costs, higher rates of readmission, and lower patient satisfaction. In this study, we investigated the predictive power of machine learning (ML) models for prolonged LOS after revision THA using patient data from a national-scale patient repository.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified 11,737 revision THA cases from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2013 to 2020. Prolonged LOS was defined as exceeding the 75th value of all LOSs in the study cohort. We developed four ML models: artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, histogram-based gradient boosting, and k-nearest neighbor, to predict prolonged LOS after revision THA. Each model's performance was assessed during training and testing sessions in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

RESULTS

The ANN model was the most accurate with an AUC of 0.82, calibration slope of 0.90, calibration intercept of 0.02, and Brier score of 0.140 during testing, indicating the model's competency in distinguishing patients subject to prolonged LOS with minimal prediction error. All models showed clinical utility by producing net benefits in the decision curve analyses. The most significant predictors of prolonged LOS were preoperative blood tests (hematocrit, platelet count, and leukocyte count), preoperative transfusion, operation time, indications for revision THA (infection), and age.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that the ML model accurately predicted prolonged LOS after revision THA. The results highlighted the importance of the indications for revision surgery in determining the risk of prolonged LOS. With the model's aid, clinicians can stratify individual patients based on key factors, improve care coordination and discharge planning for those at risk of prolonged LOS, and increase cost efficiency.

Pitch-Tracking Metrics as a Predictor of Future Shoulder and Elbow Injuries in Major League Baseball Pitchers: A Machine-Learning and Game-Theory Based Analysis

Background

Understanding interactions between multiple risk factors for shoulder and elbow injuries in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers is important to identify potential avenues by which risk can be reduced while minimizing impact on player performance.

Purpose

To apply a novel game theory-based approach to develop a machine-learning model predictive of next-season shoulder and elbow injuries in MLB pitchers and use this model to understand interdependencies and interaction effects between the most important risk factors.

Study Design

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

Methods

Pitcher demographics, workload measures, pitch-tracking metrics, and injury data between 2017 and 2022 were used to construct a database of MLB pitcher-years, where each item in the database corresponded to a pitcher's information and metrics for that year. An extreme gradient boosting machine-learning model was trained to predict next-season shoulder and elbow injuries utilizing Shapley additive explanation values to quantify feature importance as well as interdependencies and interaction effects between predictive variables.

Results

A total of 3808 pitcher-years were included in this analysis; 606 (15.9%) of these involved a shoulder or elbow injury resulting in placement on the MLB injured list. Of the >65 candidate features (including workload, demographic, and pitch-tracking metrics), the most important contributors to predicting shoulder/elbow injury were increased: pitch velocity (all pitch types), utilization of sliders (SLs), fastball (FB) spin rate, FB horizontal movement, and player age. The strongest game theory interaction effects were that higher FB velocity did not alter a younger pitcher's predicted risk of shoulder/elbow injury versus older pitchers, risk of shoulder/elbow injury increased with the number of high-velocity pitches thrown (regardless of pitch type and in an additive fashion), and FB velocity <95 mph (<152.9 kph) demonstrated strong negative interaction effects with higher SL percentage, suggesting that the overall predicted risk of injury for pitchers throwing a high number of SLs could be attenuated by lower FB velocity.

Conclusion

Pitch-tracking metrics were substantially more predictive of future injury than player demographics and workload metrics. There were many significant game theory interdependencies of injury risk. Notably, the increased risk of injury that was conferred by throwing with a high velocity was even further magnified if the pitchers were also older, threw a high percentage of SLs, and/or threw a greater number of pitches.

A Retrospective Analysis of Major League Baseball Hit-by-Pitch Rates before and after the Crackdown on Foreign Substance Use

OBJECTIVE

Determine whether there was an increased incidence of hit-by-pitch events in Major League Baseball (MLB) following the decision to enforce the foreign substance ban for pitchers during the 2021 season.

DESIGN

Descriptive Epidemiological Study.

SETTING

Major League Baseball hit-by-pitch data from publicly available Web sites ( mlb.com and fangraphs.com ).

PARTICIPANTS

Major League Baseball players during the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 seasons.

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Hit-by-pitch exposure data by season and individual pitch type.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hit-by-pitch incidence rates from the 2017 to 2019 seasons (preenforcement) and the 2021 to 2022 seasons (postenforcement). Rates were compared with incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

Hit-by-pitch incidence rate increased from 2.66 to 3.06 per 1000 total pitches (IRR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.08-1.23]; P < 0.0001) following the enforcement. Incidence rates for 2017, 2018, and 2019 did not differ from each other individually, but incidence rate of all 3 seasons individually were significantly lower than that for the 2021 season ( P < 0.005). Sliders were 29% more likely to hit batters following the enforcement ( P = 0.0015).

CONCLUSIONS

Major League Baseball batters were hit by pitches at a significantly higher rate following the league's crackdown on foreign substance use for the 2021 seasons compared with the same time of year during the 2017 to 2019 seasons. This was followed by a slight regression toward preenforcement levels during the 2022 season.

Orthopaedic surgeons display a positive outlook towards artificial intelligence: A survey among members of the AGA Society for Arthroscopy and Joint Surgery

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the perspective of orthopaedic surgeons on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and to evaluate the influence of experience, workplace setting and familiarity with digital solutions on views on AI.

Methods

Orthopaedic surgeons of the AGA Society for Arthroscopy and Joint Surgery were invited to participate in an online, cross-sectional survey designed to gather information on professional background, subjective AI knowledge, opinion on the future impact of AI, openness towards different applications of AI, and perceived advantages and disadvantages of AI. Subgroup analyses were performed to examine the influence of experience, workplace setting and openness towards digital solutions on perspectives towards AI.

Results

Overall, 360 orthopaedic surgeons participated. The majority indicated average (43.6%) or rudimentary (38.1%) AI knowledge. Most (54.5%) expected AI to substantially influence orthopaedics within 5-10 years, predominantly as a complementary tool (91.1%). Preoperative planning (83.8%) was identified as the most likely clinical use case. A lack of consensus was observed regarding acceptable error levels. Time savings in preoperative planning (62.5%) and improved documentation (81%) were identified as notable advantages while declining skills of the next generation (64.5%) were rated as the most substantial drawback. There were significant differences in subjective AI knowledge depending on participants' experience (p = 0.021) and familiarity with digital solutions (p < 0.001), acceptable error levels depending on workplace setting (p = 0.004), and prediction of AI impact depending on familiarity with digital solutions (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The majority of orthopaedic surgeons in this survey anticipated a notable positive impact of AI on their field, primarily as an assistive technology. A lack of consensus on acceptable error levels of AI and concerns about declining skills among future surgeons were observed.

Level of Evidence

Level IV, cross-sectional study.

Artificial intelligence and Machine Learning approaches in sports: Concepts, applications, challenges, and future perspectives

BACKGROUND

The development and application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in healthcare have gained attention as a promising and powerful resource to change the landscape of healthcare. The potential of these technologies for injury prediction, performance analysis, personalized training, and treatment comes with challenges related to the complexity of sports dynamics and the multidimensional aspects of athletic performance.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to present the current state of AI and ML applications in sports science, specifically in the areas of injury prediction, performance enhancement, and rehabilitation. We also examine the challenges of incorporating AI and ML into sports and suggest directions for future research.

METHOD

We conducted a comprehensive literature review, focusing on publications related to AI and ML applications in sports. This review encompassed studies on injury prediction, performance analysis, and personalized training, emphasizing the AI and ML models applied in sports.

RESULTS

The findings highlight significant advancements in injury prediction accuracy, performance analysis precision, and the customization of training programs through AI and ML. However, future studies need to address challenges such as ethical considerations, data quality, interpretability of ML models, and the integration of complex data.

CONCLUSION

AI and ML may be useful for the prevention, detection, diagnosis, and treatment of health conditions. In this Masterclass paper, we introduce AI and ML concepts, outline recent breakthroughs in AI technologies and their applications, identify the challenges for further progress of AI systems, and discuss ethical issues, clinical and research opportunities, and future perspectives.

Recommended Requirements and Essential Elements for Proper Reporting of the Use of Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Tools in Biomedical Research and Scientific Publications

Essential elements required for proper use of artificial intelligence machine learning tools in biomedical research and scientific publications include (1) explanation justifying why a machine learning approach contributes to the purpose of the study; (2) description of the adequacy of the data (input) to produce the desired results (output); (3) details of the algorithmic (i.e., computational) approach including methods for organizing the data (preprocessing); the machine learning computational algorithm(s) assessed; on what data the models were trained; the presence of bias and efforts to mitigate these effects; and the methods for quantifying the variables (features) most influential in determining the results (e.g., Shapley values); (4) description of methods, and reporting of results, quantitating performance in terms of both model accuracy and model calibration (level of confidence in the model's predictions); (5) availability of the programming code (including a link to the code when available-ideally, the code should be available); (6) discussion of model internal validation (results applicable and sensitive to the population investigated and data on which the model was trained) and external validation (were the results investigated as to whether they are generalizable to different populations? If not, consideration of this limitation and discussion of plans for external validation, i.e., next steps). As biomedical research submissions using artificial intelligence technology increase, these requirements could facilitate purposeful use and comprehensive methodological reporting.

The Future of Artificial Intelligence in Sports Medicine and Return to Play

Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown tremendous growth over the last decade, with the more recent development of clinical applications in health care. The ability of AI to synthesize large amounts of complex data automatically allows health care providers to access previously unavailable metrics and thus enhance and personalize patient care. These innovations include AI-assisted diagnostic tools, prediction models for each treatment pathway, and various tools for workflow optimization. The extension of AI into sports medicine is still early, but numerous AI-driven algorithms, devices, and research initiatives have delved into predicting and preventing athlete injury, aiding in injury assessment, optimizing recovery plans, monitoring rehabilitation progress, and predicting return to play.

Pitch-classifier model for professional pitchers utilizing 3D motion capture and machine learning algorithms

Introduction

A pitcher's ability to achieve pitch location precision after a complex series of motions is of paramount importance. Kinematics have been used in analyzing performance benefits like ball velocity, as well as injury risk profile; however, prior utilization of such data for pitch location metrics is limited.

Objective

To develop a pitch classifier model utilizing machine learning algorithms to explore the potential relationships between kinematic variables and a pitcher's ability to throw a strike or ball.

Methods

This was a descriptive laboratory study involving professional baseball pitchers (n = 318) performing pitching tests under the setting of 3D motion-capture (480 Hz). Main outcome measures included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the random forest model.

Results

The optimized random forest model resulted in an accuracy of 70.0 %, sensitivity of 70.3 %, specificity of 48.5 %, F1 equal to 80.6 %, PPV of 94.3 %, and a NPV of 11.6 %. Classification accuracy for predicting strikes and balls achieved an area under the curve of 0.67. Kinematics that derived the highest % increase in mean square error included: trunk flexion excursion(4.06 %), pelvis obliquity at foot contact(4.03 %), and trunk rotation at hand separation(3.94 %). Pitchers who threw strikes had significantly less trunk rotation at hand separation(p = 0.004) and less trunk flexion at ball release(p = 0.003) compared to balls. The positive predictive value for determining a strike was within an acceptable range, while the negative predictive value suggests if a pitch was determined as a ball, the model was not adequate in its prediction.

Conclusions

Kinematic measures of pelvis and trunk were crucial determinants for the pitch classifier sequence, suggesting pitcher kinematics at the proximal body segments may be useful in determining final pitch location.

Quantitative analysis of the dominant external factors influencing elite speed Skaters' performance using BP neural network

Introduction

Speed skating, being a popular winter sport, imposes significant demands on elite skaters, necessitating their effective assessment and adaptation to diverse environmental factors to achieve optimal race performance.

Objective

The aim of this study was to conduct a thorough analysis of the predominant external factors influencing the performance of elite speed skaters.

Methods

A total of 403 races, encompassing various race distances and spanning from the 2013 to the 2022 seasons, were examined for eight high-caliber speed skaters from the Chinese national team. We developed a comprehensive analytical framework utilizing an advanced back-propagation (BP) neural neural network model to assess three key factors on race performance: ice rink altitude, ice surface temperature, and race frequency.

Results

Our research indicated that the performance of all skaters improves with higher rink altitudes, particularly in races of 1,000 m and beyond. The ice surface temperature can either enhance or impaire performance and varies in its influences based on skaters' technical characteristics, which had a perceptible or even important influence on races of 1,500 m and beyond, and a negligible influence in the 500 m and 1,000 m races. An increase in race frequency generally contributed to better performance. The influence was relatively minor in the 500 m race, important in the 3,000 m race, and varied among individuals in the 1,000 m and 1,500 m races.

Conclusion

The study results offer crucial guidelines for speed skaters and coaches, aiding in the optimization of their training and competition strategies, ultimately leading to improved competitive performance levels.

Künstliche Intelligenz in der Orthopädie

Wir befinden uns in einer Phase exponentiellen Wachstums bei der Nutzung von künstlicher Intelligenz (KI). Knapp 90 % der KI-Forschung in der Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie wurde in den letzten 3 Jahren veröffentlicht. In der Mehrzahl der Untersuchungen wurde KI zur Bildinterpretation oder als klinisches Entscheidungsinstrument eingesetzt. Die am häufigsten untersuchten Körperregionen waren dabei Wirbelsäule, Knie und Hüfte. Mit der Verbesserung der Datenerfassung verbessern sich auch die mit KI assoziierten Möglichkeiten einer genaueren Diagnostik, von patientenspezifischen Behandlungsansätzen, verbesserter Ergebnisvorhersage und erweiterter Ausbildung. KI bietet einen potenziellen Weg, um Ärztinnen und Ärzte zu unterstützen und gleichzeitig den Wert der Behandlung zu maximieren. Ein grundlegendes Verständnis dafür, was KI beinhaltet und wie sie sich auf die Orthopädie und die Patientenversorgung auswirken kann, ist unerlässlich. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über die Anwendungsbereiche von KI-Systemen in der Orthopädie und stellt sie in den komplexen Gesamtkontext bestehend aus Interessensvertretern aus Politik, Industrie, Behörden und Medizin.

The Use of Artificial Intelligence for the Prediction of Periprosthetic Joint Infection Following Aseptic Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) following revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for aseptic failure is associated with poor outcomes, patient morbidity, and high health care expenditures. The aim of this study was to develop novel machine learning algorithms for the prediction of PJI following revision TKA for patients with aseptic indications for revision surgery. A single-institution database consisting of 1,432 consecutive revision TKA patients with aseptic etiologies was retrospectively identified. The patient cohort included 208 patients (14.5%) who underwent re-revision surgery for PJI. Three machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors) were developed to predict this outcome and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. This is a retrospective study. Among the three machine learning models, the neural network model achieved the best performance across discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.78), calibration, and decision curve analysis. The strongest predictors for PJI following revision TKA for aseptic reasons were prior open procedure prior to revision surgery, drug abuse, obesity, and diabetes. This study utilized machine learning as a tool for the prediction of PJI following revision TKA for aseptic failure with excellent performance. The validated machine learning models can aid surgeons in patient-specific risk stratifying to assist in preoperative counseling and clinical decision making for patients undergoing aseptic revision TKA.

Characteristics of fatal occupational injuries in migrant workers in South Korea: A machine learning study

Objective

Analysis of occupational injuries is essential for developing preventive strategies. However, few studies have evaluated severe occupational injuries in migrant workers from the perspective of gender. Therefore, using a new analytical method, this study was performed to identify gender-specific characteristics associated with fatal occupational injuries among migrant workers; the interactions between these factors, were also analyzed. In addition, we compared the utility of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) with logistic regression (LR) and discuss caveats regarding its use.

Materials and methods

We analyzed national statistics for occupational injuries among migrant workers (n = 67,576) in South Korea between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2018. We applied an extreme gradient boosting model and developed SHAP and LR models for comparison.

Results

We found clear gender differences in fatal occupational injuries among migrant workers, with males in the same occupation having a higher risk of death than females. These gender differences suggest the need for gender-specific occupational injury prevention interventions for migrant workers to reduce the mortality rate. Occupation was a significant predictor of death among female migrant workers only, with care jobs having the highest fatality risk. The occupational fatality risk of female workers would not have been identified without the performance of detailed job-specific analyses stratified by gender. The major advantages of SHAP identified in the present study were the automatic identification and analysis of interactions, ability to determine the relative contributions of each feature, and high overall performance. The major caveat when using SHAP is that causality cannot be established.

Conclusion

Detailed job-specific analyses stratified by gender, and interventions considering the gender of migrant workers, are necessary to reduce occupational fatality rates. The XAI approach should be considered as a complementary analytical method for epidemiological studies, as it overcomes the limitations of traditional statistical analyses.

Artificial intelligence and ChatGPT in Orthopaedics and sports medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) is looked upon nowadays as the potential major catalyst for the fourth industrial revolution. In the last decade, AI use in Orthopaedics increased approximately tenfold. Artificial intelligence helps with tracking activities, evaluating diagnostic images, predicting injury risk, and several other uses. Chat Generated Pre-trained Transformer (ChatGPT), which is an AI-chatbot, represents an extremely controversial topic in the academic community. The aim of this review article is to simplify the concept of AI and study the extent of AI use in Orthopaedics and sports medicine literature. Additionally, the article will also evaluate the role of ChatGPT in scientific research and publications.Level of evidence: Level V, letter to review.

Application of artificial intelligence in trauma orthopedics: Limitation and prospects

The varieties and capabilities of artificial intelligence and machine learning in orthopedic surgery are extensively expanding. One promising method is neural networks, emphasizing big data and computer-based learning systems to develop a statistical fracture-detecting model. It derives patterns and rules from outstanding amounts of data to analyze the probabilities of different outcomes using new sets of similar data. The sensitivity and specificity of machine learning in detecting fractures vary from previous studies. AI may be most promising in the diagnosis of less-obvious fractures that are more commonly missed. Future studies are necessary to develop more accurate and effective detection models that can be used clinically.

Editorial Commentary: Machine Learning Is Just a Statistical Technique, Not a Mystical Methodology or Peer Review Panacea

Orthopaedic and sports medicine research surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has dramatically risen over the last 4 years. Meaningful application and methodologic rigor in the scientific literature are critical to ensure appropriate use of AI. Common but critical errors for those engaging in AI-related research include failure to 1) ensure the question is important and previously unknown or unanswered; 2) establish that AI is necessary to answer the question; and 3) recognize model performance is more commonly a reflection of the data than the AI itself. We must take care to ensure we are not repackaging and internally validating registry data. Instead, we should be critically appraising our data-not the AI-based statistical technique. Without appropriate guardrails surrounding the use of artificial intelligence in Orthopaedic research, there is a risk of repackaging registry data and low-quality research in a recursive peer-reviewed loop.

Predictive utility of commercial grade technologies for assessing musculoskeletal injury risk in US Marine Corps Officer candidates

Recently, commercial grade technologies have provided black box algorithms potentially relating to musculoskeletal injury (MSKI) risk and functional movement deficits, in which may add value to a high-performance model. Thus, the purpose of this manuscript was to evaluate composite and component scores from commercial grade technologies associations to MSKI risk in Marine Officer Candidates. 689 candidates (Male candidates = 566, Female candidates = 123) performed counter movement jumps on SPARTA™ force plates and functional movements (squats, jumps, lunges) in DARI™ markerless motion capture at the start of Officer Candidates School (OCS). De-identified MSKI data was acquired from internal OCS reports for those who presented to the Physical Therapy department for MSKI treatment during the 10 weeks of training. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to validate the utility of the composite scores and supervised machine learning algorithms were deployed to create a population specific model on the normalized component variables in SPARTA™ and DARI™. Common MSKI risk factors (cMSKI) such as older age, slower run times, and females were associated with greater MSKI risk. Composite scores were significantly associated with MSKI, although the area under the curve (AUC) demonstrated poor discrimination (AUC = .55-.57). When supervised machine learning algorithms were trained on the normalized component variables and cMSKI variables, the overall training models performed well, but when the training models were tested on the testing data the models classified MSKI "by chance" (testing AUC avg = .55-.57) across all models. Composite scores and component population specific models were poor predictors of MSKI in candidates. While cMSKI, SPARTA™, and DARI™ models performed similarly, this study does not dismiss the use of commercial technologies but questions the utility of a singular screening task to predict MSKI over 10 weeks. Further investigations should evaluate occupation specific screening, serial measurements, and/or load exposure for creating MSKI risk models.

Using Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Sensing and Wearable Technology in Sports Medicine and Performance Optimisation

Wearable technologies are small electronic and mobile devices with wireless communication capabilities that can be worn on the body as a part of devices, accessories or clothes. Sensors incorporated within wearable devices enable the collection of a broad spectrum of data that can be processed and analysed by artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In this narrative review, we performed a literature search of the MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases. We included any original studies that used sensors to collect data for a sporting event and subsequently used an AI-based system to process the data with diagnostic, treatment or monitoring intents. The included studies show the use of AI in various sports including basketball, baseball and motor racing to improve athletic performance. We classified the studies according to the stage of an event, including pre-event training to guide performance and predict the possibility of injuries; during events to optimise performance and inform strategies; and in diagnosing injuries after an event. Based on the included studies, AI techniques to process data from sensors can detect patterns in physiological variables as well as positional and kinematic data to inform how athletes can improve their performance. Although AI has promising applications in sports medicine, there are several challenges that can hinder their adoption. We have also identified avenues for future work that can provide solutions to overcome these challenges.

Meaningless Applications and Misguided Methodologies in Artificial Intelligence-Related Orthopaedic Research Propagates Hype Over Hope

There exists great hope and hype in the literature surrounding applications of artificial intelligence (AI) to orthopaedic surgery. Between 2018 and 2021, a total of 178 AI-related articles were published in orthopaedics. However, for every 2 original research papers that apply AI to orthopaedics, a commentary or review is published (30.3%). AI-related research in orthopaedics frequently fails to provide use cases that offer the uninitiated an opportunity to appraise the importance of AI by studying meaningful questions, evaluating unknown hypotheses, or analyzing quality data. The hype perpetuates a feed-forward cycle that relegates AI to a meaningless buzzword by rewarding those with nascent understanding and rudimentary technical knowhow into committing several basic errors: (1) inappropriately conflating vernacular ("AI/machine learning"), (2) repackaging registry data, (3) prematurely releasing internally validated algorithms, (4) overstating the "black box phenomenon" by failing to provide weighted analysis, (5) claiming to evaluate AI rather than the data itself, and (6) withholding full model architecture code. Relevant AI-specific guidelines are forthcoming, but forced application of the original Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines designed for regression analyses is irrelevant and misleading. To safeguard meaningful use, AI-related research efforts in orthopaedics should be (1) directed toward administrative support over clinical evaluation and management, (2) require the use of the advanced model, and (3) answer a question that was previously unknown, unanswered, or unquantifiable.

Predictors Using Machine Learning of Complete Peroneal Nerve Palsy Recovery After Multiligamentous Knee Injury: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Peroneal nerve (PN) palsy is one of the most debilitating sequelae of multiligamentous knee injuries (MLKIs). There is limited research on recovery from complete PN palsy.

Purpose/Hypothesis

The purpose of this study was to characterize PN injuries and develop a predictive model of complete PN recovery after MLKI using machine learning. It was hypothesized that elevated body mass index (BMI) would be predictive of lower likelihood of recovery.

Study Design

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

Methods

The authors conducted a retrospective review of patients seen at 2 urban hospital systems for treatment of MLKI with associated complete PN palsy, defined as the presence of complete foot drop with or without sensory deficits on physical examination. Recovery was defined as the complete resolution of foot drop. A random forest (RF) classifier algorithm was used to identify demographic, injury, treatment, and postoperative variables that were significant predictors of recovery from complete PN palsy. Validity of the RF model was assessed using overall accuracy, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

Overall, 16 patients with MLKI with associated complete PN palsy were included in the cohort. Among them, 75% (12/16) had documented knee dislocation requiring reduction. Complete recovery occurred in 4 patients (25%). Nerve contusions on magnetic resonance imaging were more common among patients without PN recovery, but there were no other significant differences between recovery and nonrecovery groups. The RF model found that older age, increasing BMI, and male sex were predictive of worse likelihood of PN recovery. The model was found to have good validity, with a classification accuracy of 75%, F1 score of 0.86, and AUC of 0.64.

Conclusion

The RF model in this study found that increasing age, BMI, and male sex were predictive of decreased likelihood of nerve recovery. While further study of machine learning models with larger patient data sets is required to identify the most superior model, these findings present an opportunity for orthopaedic surgeons to better identify, counsel, and treat patients with MLKIs and concomitant complete PN palsy.

Machine Learning for Predicting Lower Extremity Muscle Strain in National Basketball Association Athletes

Background

In professional sports, injuries resulting in loss of playing time have serious implications for both the athlete and the organization. Efforts to quantify injury probability utilizing machine learning have been met with renewed interest, and the development of effective models has the potential to supplement the decision-making process of team physicians.

Purpose/Hypothesis

The purpose of this study was to (1) characterize the epidemiology of time-loss lower extremity muscle strains (LEMSs) in the National Basketball Association (NBA) from 1999 to 2019 and (2) determine the validity of a machine-learning model in predicting injury risk. It was hypothesized that time-loss LEMSs would be infrequent in this cohort and that a machine-learning model would outperform conventional methods in the prediction of injury risk.

Study Design

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

Methods

Performance data and rates of the 4 major muscle strain injury types (hamstring, quadriceps, calf, and groin) were compiled from the 1999 to 2019 NBA seasons. Injuries included all publicly reported injuries that resulted in lost playing time. Models to predict the occurrence of a LEMS were generated using random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), neural network, support vector machines, elastic net penalized logistic regression, and generalized logistic regression. Performance was compared utilizing discrimination, calibration, decision curve analysis, and the Brier score.

Results

A total of 736 LEMSs resulting in lost playing time occurred among 2103 athletes. Important variables for predicting LEMS included previous number of lower extremity injuries; age; recent history of injuries to the ankle, hamstring, or groin; and recent history of concussion as well as 3-point attempt rate and free throw attempt rate. The XGBoost machine achieved the best performance based on discrimination assessed via internal validation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.840), calibration, and decision curve analysis.

Conclusion

Machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost outperformed logistic regression in the prediction of a LEMS that will result in lost time. Several variables increased the risk of LEMS, including a history of various lower extremity injuries, recent concussion, and total number of previous injuries.

Construction of Women’s All-Around Speed Skating Event Performance Prediction Model and Competition Strategy Analysis Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Introduction

Accurately predicting the competitive performance of elite athletes is an essential prerequisite for formulating competitive strategies. Women’s all-around speed skating event consists of four individual subevents, and the competition system is complex and challenging to make accurate predictions on their performance.

Objective

The present study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of machine learning algorithms for predicting the performance of women’s all-around speed skating event and provide effective training and competition strategies.

Methods

The data, consisting of 16 seasons of world-class women’s all-around speed skating competition results, used in the present study came from the International Skating Union (ISU). According to the competition rules, distinct features are filtered using lasso regression, and a 5,000 m race model and a medal model are built using a fivefold cross-validation method.

Results

The results showed that the support vector machine model was the most stable among the 5,000 m race and the medal models, with the highest AUC (0.86, 0.81, respectively). Furthermore, 3,000 m points are the main characteristic factors that decide whether an athlete can qualify for the final. The 11th lap of the 5,000 m, the second lap of the 500 m, and the fourth lap of the 1,500 m are the main characteristic factors that affect the athlete’s ability to win medals.

Conclusion

Compared with logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, neural network, support vector machine is a more viable algorithm to establish the performance prediction model of women’s all-around speed skating event; excellent performance in the 3,000 m event can facilitate athletes to advance to the final, and athletes with outstanding performance in the 500 m event are more likely competitive for medals.

Machine Learning Algorithms Predict Achievement of Clinically Significant Outcomes After Orthopaedic Surgery: A Systematic Review

PURPOSE

To determine what subspecialties have applied machine learning (ML) to predict clinically significant outcomes (CSOs) within orthopaedic surgery and to determine whether the performance of these models was acceptable through assessing discrimination and other ML metrics where reported.

METHODS

The PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were queried for articles that used ML to predict achievement of the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), patient acceptable symptomatic state (PASS), or substantial clinical benefit (SCB) after orthopaedic surgical procedures. Data pertaining to demographic characteristics, subspecialty, specific ML algorithms, and algorithm performance were analyzed.

RESULTS

Eighteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen studies developed novel algorithms, whereas one study externally validated an established algorithm. All studies used ML to predict MCID achievement, whereas 3 (16.7%) predicted SCB achievement and none predicted PASS achievement. Of the studies, 7 (38.9%) concerned outcomes after spine surgery; 6 (33.3%), after sports medicine surgery; 3 (16.7%), after total joint arthroplasty (TJA); and 2 (11.1%), after shoulder arthroplasty. No studies were found regarding trauma, hand, elbow, pediatric, or foot and ankle surgery. In spine surgery, concordance statistics (C-statistics) ranged from 0.65 to 0.92; in hip arthroscopy, 0.51 to 0.94; in TJA, 0.63 to 0.89; and in shoulder arthroplasty, 0.70 to 0.95. Most studies reported C-statistics at the upper end of these ranges, although populations were heterogeneous.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently available ML algorithms can discriminate the propensity to achieve CSOs using the MCID after spine, TJA, sports medicine, and shoulder surgery with a fair to good performance as evidenced by C-statistics ranging from 0.6 to 0.95 in most analyses. Less evidence is available on the ability of ML to predict achievement of SCB, and no evidence is available for achievement of the PASS. Such algorithms may augment shared decision-making practices and allow clinicians to provide more appropriate patient expectations using individualized risk assessments. However, these studies remain limited by variable reporting of performance metrics, CSO quantification methods, and adherence to predictive modeling guidelines, as well as limited external validation.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, systematic review of Level III studies.

Current State of Data and Analytics Research in Baseball

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Baseball has become one of the largest data-driven sports. In this review, we highlight the historical context of how big data and sabermetrics began to transform baseball, the current methods for data collection and analysis in baseball, and a look to the future including emerging technologies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and modern motion-analysis techniques have shown promise in predicting player performance and preventing injury. With the advent of the Health Injury Tracking System (HITS), numerous studies have been published which highlight the epidemiology and performance implications for specific injuries. Wearable technologies allow for the prospective collection of kinematic data to improve pitching mechanics and prevent injury. Data and analytics research has transcended baseball over time, and the future of this field remains bright.

Sports Medicine and Artificial Intelligence: A Primer

Artificial intelligence (AI) represents the fourth industrial revolution and the next frontier in medicine poised to transform the field of orthopaedics and sports medicine, though widespread understanding of the fundamental principles and adoption of applications remain nascent. Recent research efforts into implementation of AI in the field of orthopaedic surgery and sports medicine have demonstrated great promise in predicting athlete injury risk, interpreting advanced imaging, evaluating patient-reported outcomes, reporting value-based metrics, and augmenting the patient experience. Not unlike the recent emphasis thrust upon physicians to understand the business of medicine, the future practice of sports medicine specialists will require a fundamental working knowledge of the strengths, limitations, and applications of AI-based tools. With appreciation, caution, and experience applying AI to sports medicine, the potential to automate tasks and improve data-driven insights may be realized to fundamentally improve patient care. In this Current Concepts review, we discuss the definitions, strengths, limitations, and applications of AI from the current literature as it relates to orthopaedic sports medicine.

Prediction of Injuries in CrossFit Training: A Machine Learning Perspective

CrossFit has gained recognition and interest among physically active populations being one of the most popular and rapidly growing exercise regimens worldwide. Due to the intense and repetitive nature of CrossFit, concerns have been raised over the potential injury risks that are associated with its training including rhabdomyolysis and musculoskeletal injuries. However, identification of risk factors for predicting injuries in CrossFit athletes has been limited by the absence of relevant big epidemiological studies. The main purpose of this paper is the identification of risk factors and the development of machine learning-based models using ensemble learning that can predict CrossFit injuries. To accomplish the aforementioned targets, a survey-based epidemiological study was conducted in Greece to collect data on musculoskeletal injuries in CrossFit practitioners. A Machine Learning (ML) pipeline was then implemented that involved data pre-processing, feature selection and well-known ML models. The performance of the proposed ML models was assessed using a comprehensive cross validation mechanism whereas a discussion on the nature of the selected features is also provided. An area under the curve (AUC) of 77.93% was achieved by the best ML model using ensemble learning (Adaboost) on the group of six selected risk factors. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was evaluated in a comparative analysis with respect to numerous performance metrics including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, AUC and confusion matrices to confirm its clinical relevance. The results are the basis for the development of reliable tools for the prediction of injuries in CrossFit.

Pre-injury performance is most important for predicting the level of match participation after Achilles tendon ruptures in elite soccer players: a study using a machine learning classifier

PURPOSE

Achilles tendon ruptures (ATR) are career-threatening injuries in elite soccer players due to the decreased sports performance they commonly inflict. This study presents an exploratory data analysis of match participation before and after ATRs and an evaluation of the performance of a machine learning (ML) model based on pre-injury features to predict whether a player will return to a previous level of match participation.

METHODS

The website transfermarkt.com was mined, between January and March of 2021, for relevant entries regarding soccer players who suffered an ATR while playing in first or second leagues. The difference between average minutes played per match (MPM) 1 year before injury and between 1 and 2 years after the injury was used to identify patterns in match participation after injury. Clustering analysis was performed using k-means clustering. Predictions of post-injury match participation were made using the XGBoost classification algorithm. The performance of this model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Brier score loss (BSL).

RESULTS

Two hundred and nine players were included in the study. Data from 32,853 matches was analysed. Exploratory data analysis revealed that forwards, midfielders and defenders increased match participation during the first year after injury, with goalkeepers still improving at 2 years. Players were grouped into four clusters regarding the difference between MPMs 1 year before injury and between 1 and 2 years after the injury. These groups ranged between a severe decrease (n = 34; - 59 ± 13 MPM), moderate decrease (n = 75; - 25 ± 8 MPM), maintenance (n = 70; 0 ± 8 MPM), or increase (n = 30; 32 ± 13 MPM). Regarding the predictive model, the average AUROC after cross-validation was 0.81 ± 0.10, and the BSL was 0.12, with the most important features relating to pre-injury match participation.

CONCLUSION

Most players take 1 year to reach peak match participation after an ATR. Good performance was attained using a ML classifier to predict the level of match participation following an ATR, with features related to pre-injury match participation displaying the highest importance.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

I.

Effect of Preoperative Imaging and Patient Factors on Clinically Meaningful Outcomes and Quality of Life After Osteochondral Allograft Transplantation: A Machine Learning Analysis of Cartilage Defects of the Knee

BACKGROUND

Fresh osteochondral allograft transplantation (OCA) is an effective method of treating symptomatic cartilage defects of the knee. This restoration technique involves the single-stage implantation of viable, mature hyaline cartilage into a chondral or osteochondral lesion. The extent to which preoperative imaging and patient factors predict achieving clinically meaningful outcomes among patients undergoing OCA for cartilage lesions of the knee remains unknown.

PURPOSE

To determine the predictive relationship of preoperative imaging, preoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and patient demographics with achievement of the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and substantial clinical benefit (SCB) for functional and quality-of-life PROMs at 2 years after OCA for symptomatic cartilage defects of the knee.

STUDY DESIGN

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

Data were analyzed for patients who underwent OCA before May 1, 2018, by 2 high-volume fellowship-trained cartilage surgeons. The International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) subjective form, Knee Outcome Survey-Activities of Daily Living (KOS-ADL), and mental and physical component summaries of the SF-36 were administered preoperatively and at 2 years postoperatively. A total of 42 predictive models were created using 7 unique architectures to detect achievement of the MCID for each of the 4 outcome measures and the SCB for the IKDC and KOS-ADL. Data inputted into the models included sex, age, body mass index, baseline PROMs, lesion size, concomitant ligamentous or meniscal tear, and presence of "bone bruise" or osseous edema. Shapley additive explanations plot analysis identified predictors of reaching the MCID and SCB.

RESULTS

Of the 185 patients who underwent OCA for the knee and met eligibility criteria from an institutional cartilage registry, 153 (83%) had 2-year follow-up. Preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), baseline PROMs, and patient demographics best predicted reaching the 2-year MCID and SCB of the IKDC and KOS-ADL PROMs, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the top-performing models ranging from good (0.88) to excellent (0.91). MRI faired poorly (areas under the curve, 0.60-0.68) in predicting the MCID for the mental and physical component summaries. Higher body mass index, knee malalignment, absence of preoperative osseous edema, concomitant anterior cruciate ligament or meniscal injury, larger defect size, and the implantation of >1 OCA graft were consistent findings contributing to failure to achieve the MCID or SCB at 2 years postoperatively.

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning models demonstrated that preoperative MRI, baseline PROMs, and patient demographics reliably predict the ability to reach clinically meaningful thresholds for functional knee outcomes 2 years after OCA for cartilage defects. Although clinical improvement in knee function can be reliably predicted, improvements in quality of life after OCA depend on a comprehensive preoperative assessment of the patient's perception of his or her mental and physical health. Absence of osseous edema, concomitant anterior cruciate ligament or meniscal injury, larger lesion size on MRI, knee malalignment, and elevated body mass index are predictive of failure to achieve 2-year functional benefits after OCA of the knee.