Computer quantification of airway collapse on forced expiration to predict the presence of emphysema

Parameter D: New Measure of Airflow Obstruction

Rationale: Currently used spirometry measures of airflow obstruction are influenced by demographics, predominantly by age, complicating selection of diagnostic thresholds for the presence of airflow obstruction. Objectives: To develop diagnostic thresholds for Parameter D, a new metric for detection of airflow obstruction, which quantifies the rate of rise of expiratory volume over time. Methods: We analyzed spirometry data of normal subjects enrolled in the 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012 NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) cohorts and calculated Parameter D using the expiratory volume-time curve. Relationships between demographics and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1], FEV1/forced vital capacity [FVC], and Parameter D) were tested using generalized linear models in NHANES and UK Biobank. The variation in lung function explained by demographics was estimated using R2. A diagnostic threshold was developed for Parameter D using population-based percentiles. Based on concordance between the lower limit of normal (LLN) for FEV1/FVC and the Parameter D threshold, four groups were identified: normal (no airflow obstruction by either criterion), D+chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (D+COPD; positive by Parameter D only), D-COPD (positive by LLN only), and COPD (positive by both criteria), and associations with structural lung disease, exacerbations, and mortality were tested using multivariable analyses. Results: In contrast to FEV1 and FEV1/FVC, demographics cumulatively explained only 9% of the variance in Parameter D in NHANES (n = 4,945) and 3% in UK BioBank (n = 109,623). In COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) (n = 9,542), a diagnostic threshold of -3.15 resulted in the identification of an additional 10.8% of participants with airflow obstruction. A total of 3.7% had FEV1/FVC < LLN but were missed by the Parameter D threshold. Compared with subjects in the normal group, after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, pack-years of smoking, and current smoking status, D+COPD was associated with worse structural lung disease (odds ratio [OR] for ⩾5% emphysema, 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37-2.12; OR for functional small airway disease ⩾ 15%, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.79-2.67) and significant symptoms (OR for modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score ⩾ 2, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.47; OR for St. George's respiratory questionnaire ⩾ 25, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.13-1.53), a greater frequency of exacerbations (incidence rate ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.46), and higher mortality (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.57). Over 5 years, 28% of the D+COPD group versus 8% of normal group progressed to COPD by traditional criteria. Conclusions: Parameter D is not affected by age, and a normal population-based diagnostic threshold results in the early identification of additional individuals with airflow obstruction with a substantial amount of structural lung disease and respiratory symptoms.

Principal component analysis of flow-volume curves in COPDGene to link spirometry with phenotypes of COPD

BACKGROUND

Parameters from maximal expiratory flow-volume curves (MEFVC) have been linked to CT-based parameters of COPD. However, the association between MEFVC shape and phenotypes like emphysema, small airways disease (SAD) and bronchial wall thickening (BWT) has not been investigated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

We analyzed if the shape of MEFVC can be linked to CT-determined emphysema, SAD and BWT in a large cohort of COPDGene participants.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In the COPDGene cohort, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to extract patterns from MEFVC shape and performed multiple linear regression to assess the association of these patterns with CT parameters over the COPD spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD.

RESULTS

Over the entire spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD, principal components of MEFVC were important predictors for the continuous CT parameters. Their contribution to the prediction of emphysema diminished when classical pulmonary function test parameters were added. For SAD, the components remained very strong predictors. The adjusted R² was higher in moderate-severe COPD, while in mild COPD, the adjusted R² for all CT outcomes was low; 0.28 for emphysema, 0.21 for SAD and 0.19 for BWT.

INTERPRETATION

The shape of the maximal expiratory flow-volume curve as analyzed with PCA is not an appropriate screening tool for early disease phenotypes identified by CT scan. However, it contributes to assessing emphysema and SAD in moderate-severe COPD.

Ratio of FEV1/Slow Vital Capacity of < 0.7 Is Associated With Clinical, Functional, and Radiologic Features of Obstructive Lung Disease in Smokers With Preserved Lung Function

BACKGROUND

Mild expiratory flow limitation may not be recognized using traditional spirometric criteria based on the ratio of FEV₁/FVC.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Does slow vital capacity (SVC) instead of FVC increase the sensitivity of spirometry to identify patients with early or mild obstructive lung disease?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 854 current and former smokers from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study cohort with a postbronchodilator FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7 and FEV₁ % predicted of ≥ 80% at enrollment. We compared baseline characteristics, chest CT scan features, exacerbations, and progression to COPD (postbronchodilator FEV₁/FVC, < 0.7) during the follow-up period between 734 participants with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC of ≥ 0.7 and 120 with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 at the enrollment. We performed multivariate linear and logistic regression models and negative binomial and interval-censored proportion hazards regression models adjusted for demographics and smoking exposure to examine the association of FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 with those characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Participants with FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 were older and had lower FEV₁ and more emphysema than those with FEV₁/SVC ≥ 0.7. In adjusted analysis, individuals with postbronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 showed a greater percentage of emphysema by 0.45% (95% CI, 0.09%-0.82%), percentage of gas trapping by 2.52% (95% CI, 0.59%-4.44%), and percentage of functional small airways disease based on parametric response mapping by 2.78% (95% CI, 0.72%-4.83%) at baseline than those with FEV₁/SVC ≥ 0.7. During a median follow-up time of 1,500 days, an FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 was not associated with total exacerbations (incident rate ratio [IRR], 1.61; 95% CI, 0.97-2.64), but was associated with severe exacerbations (IRR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.04-4.89). An FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 was associated with progression to COPD during a 3-year follow-up even after adjustment for demographics and smoking exposure (hazard ratio, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.71-5.72). We found similar results when we examined the association of prebronchodilator FEV₁/SVC < 0.7 or FEV₁/SVC less than the lower limit of normal with chest CT scan features and progression to COPD.

INTERPRETATION

Low FEV₁ to SVC in current and former smokers with normal spirometry results can identify individuals with CT scan features of COPD who are at risk for severe exacerbations and is associated with progression to COPD in the future.

TRIAL REGISTRY

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01969344T4; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Determining emphysema in adult patients with COPD-bronchiectasis overlap using a novel spirometric parameter: area under the forced expiratory flow-volume loop

BACKGROUND

Defining the optimal therapeutic approach in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) bronchiectasis overlap (CBO) is challenging. The presence of emphysema suggests that COPD is the primary problem and it impacts therapeutic decision making.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We hypothesized that the AreaFE% performance will be reliable in diagnosing the presence of emphysema such that serial CT scanning may not be needed. In this retrospective chart review study, we included 113 CBO patients (52 having emphysema, 61 not having emphysema). We compared these two groups according to conventional spirometric parameters and AreaFE% values.

RESULTS

54% of all patients were female and mean age was 58 years.FEV1%, FEV1/FVC and AreaFE% were found to be significantly lower in patients with emphysema. 12% is the cutoff value for AreaFE% in determining emphysema with 73% sensitivity,75% specificity, and 72% diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.82) and it provides superior estimation than conventional parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that AreaFE% is more suitable for determining the presence of emphysema than conventional spirometric parameters in CBO patients. This novel parameter may be helpful instead of scanning thorax CT to indicate the presence of emphysema and manage treatment in the follow-up of CBO patients.

Validation of a method to assess emphysema severity by spirometry in the COPDGene study

Background

Standard spirometry cannot identify the predominant mechanism underlying airflow obstruction in COPD, namely emphysema or airway disease. We aimed at validating a previously developed methodology to detect emphysema by mathematical analysis of the maximal expiratory flow-volume (MEFV) curve in standard spirometry.

Methods

From the COPDGene population we selected those 5930 subjects with MEFV curve and inspiratory-expiratory CT obtained on the same day. The MEFV curve descending limb was fit real-time using forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow, and forced expiratory flows at 25, 50 and 75% of FVC to derive an emphysema severity index (ESI), expressed as a continuous positive numeric parameter ranging from 0 to 10. According to inspiratory CT percent lung attenuation area below − 950 HU we defined three emphysema severity subgroups (%LAA_-950insp < 6, 6–14, ≥14). By co-registration of inspiratory-expiratory CT we quantified persistent (%pLDA) and functional (%fLDA) low-density areas as CT metrics of emphysema and airway disease, respectively.

Results

ESI differentiated CT emphysema severity subgroups increasing in parallel with GOLD stages (p < .001), but with high variability within each stage. ESI had significantly higher correlations (p < .001) with emphysema than with airway disease CT metrics, explaining 67% of %pLDA variability. Conversely, standard spirometric variables (FEV₁, FEV₁/FVC) had significantly lower correlations than ESI with emphysema CT metrics and did not differentiate between emphysema and airways CT metrics.

Conclusions

ESI adds to standard spirometry the power to discriminate whether emphysema is the predominant mechanism of airway obstruction. ESI methodology has been validated in the large multiethnic population of smokers of the COPDGene study and therefore it could be applied for clinical and research purposes in the general population of smokers, using a readily available online website.

The Concavity of the Maximal Expiratory Flow-Volume Curve Reflects the Extent of Emphysema in Obstructive Lung Diseases

A concave-shaped maximal expiratory flow-volume (MEFV) curve is a spirometric feature in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The MEFV curve is characterized by an increase in the Obstructive Index, which is defined as a ratio of forced vital capacity to the volume-difference between two points of half of the peak expiratory flow on the MEFV curve. We hypothesized that the Obstructive Index would reflect the severity of emphysema in patients with COPD and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO). Thus, the aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate whether the Obstructive Index on spirometry is associated with the extent of emphysema on computed tomography (CT) in patients with COPD, ACO, and asthma (N = 65, 15, and 53, respectively). The percentage of low-attenuation volume (LAV%) and wall area (WA%) were measured on CT. The Obstructive Index was higher in patients with COPD and ACO than in those with asthma. Spearman correlation showed that a greater Obstructive Index was associated with a higher LAV%, but not WA%. Multivariate analysis showed that Obstructive Index was associated with LAV% (standardized β = 0.43, P < 0.0001) independent of other spirometric indices. The Obstructive Index is a useful spirometric index that reflects the extent of emphysema.

Spirometric indices of early airflow impairment in individuals at risk of developing COPD: Spirometry beyond FEV1/FVC

Spirometry is the current gold standard for diagnosing and monitoring the progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). However, many current and former smokers who do not meet established spirometric criteria for the diagnosis of this disease have symptoms and clinical courses similar to those with diagnosed COPD. Large longitudinal observational studies following individuals at risk of developing COPD offer us additional insight into spirometric patterns of disease development and progression. Analysis of forced expiratory maneuver changes over time may allow us to better understand early changes predictive of progressive disease. This review discusses the theoretical ability of spirometry to capture fine pathophysiologic changes in early airway disease, highlights the shortcomings of current diagnostic criteria, and reviews existing evidence for spirometric measures which may be used to better detect early airflow impairment.

The Peak Index: Spirometry Metric for Airflow Obstruction Severity and Heterogeneity

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by airflow limitation. Spirometry loops are not smooth curves and have undulations and peaks that likely reflect heterogeneity of airflow.Objectives: To assess whether the Peak Index, the number of peaks adjusted for lung size, is associated with clinical outcomes.Methods: We analyzed spirometry data of 9,584 participants enrolled in the COPDGene study and counted the number of peaks in the descending part of the expiratory flow-volume curve from the peak expiratory flow to end-expiration. We adjusted the peaks count for the volume of the lungs from peak expiratory flow to end-expiration to derive the Peak Index. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to test associations between the Peak Index and lung function, respiratory morbidity, structural lung disease on computed tomography (CT), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline, and mortality.Results: The Peak Index progressively increased from Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage 0 through 4 (P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, the Peak Index was significantly associated with CT emphysema (adjusted β = 0.906; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.789 to 1.023; P < 0.001) and small airways disease (adjusted β = 1.367; 95% CI, 1.188 to 1.545; P < 0.001), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score (adjusted β = 1.075; 95% CI, 0.807 to 1.342; P < 0.001), 6-minute-walk distance (adjusted β = -1.993; 95% CI, -3.481 to -0.506; P < 0.001), and FEV1 change over time (adjusted β = -1.604; 95% CI, -2.691 to -0.516; P = 0.004), after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, current smoking status, pack-years of smoking, and FEV1. The Peak Index was also associated with the BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) index and mortality (P < 0.001).Conclusions: The Peak Index is a spirometry metric that is associated with CT measures of lung disease, respiratory morbidity, lung function decline, and mortality.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00608764).

Spirometric assessment of emphysema presence and severity as measured by quantitative CT and CT-based radiomics in COPD

Background

The mechanisms underlying airflow obstruction in COPD cannot be distinguished by standard spirometry. We ascertain whether mathematical modeling of airway biomechanical properties, as assessed from spirometry, could provide estimates of emphysema presence and severity, as quantified by computed tomography (CT) metrics and CT-based radiomics.

Methods

We quantified presence and severity of emphysema by standard CT metrics (VIDA) and co-registration analysis (ImbioLDA) of inspiratory-expiratory CT in 194 COPD patients who underwent pulmonary function testing. According to percentages of low attenuation area below − 950 Hounsfield Units (%LAA_-950insp) patients were classified as having no emphysema (NE) with %LAA_-950insp < 6, moderate emphysema (ME) with %LAA_-950insp ≥ 6 and < 14, and severe emphysema (SE) with %LAA_-950insp ≥ 14. We also obtained stratified clusters of emphysema CT features by an automated unsupervised radiomics approach (CALIPER). An emphysema severity index (ESI), derived from mathematical modeling of the maximum expiratory flow-volume curve descending limb, was compared with pulmonary function data and the three CT classifications of emphysema presence and severity as derived from CT metrics and radiomics.

Results

ESI mean values and pulmonary function data differed significantly in the subgroups with different emphysema degree classified by VIDA, ImbioLDA and CALIPER (p < 0.001 by ANOVA). ESI differentiated NE from ME/SE CT-classified patients (sensitivity 0.80, specificity 0.85, AUC 0.86) and SE from ME CT-classified patients (sensitivity 0.82, specificity 0.87, AUC 0.88).

Conclusions

Presence and severity of emphysema in patients with COPD, as quantified by CT metrics and radiomics can be estimated by mathematical modeling of airway function as derived from standard spirometry.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-019-1049-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Area under the forced expiratory flow-volume loop in spirometry indicates severe hyperinflation in COPD patients

Background

Severe hyperinflation causes detrimental effects such as dyspnea and reduced exercise capacity and is an independent predictor of mortality in COPD patients. Static lung volumes are required to diagnose severe hyperinflation, which are not always accessible in primary care. Several studies have shown that the area under the forced expiratory flow-volume loop (AreaFE) is highly sensitive to bronchodilator response and is correlated with residual volume/total lung capacity (RV/TLC), a common index of air trapping. In this study, we investigate the role of AreaFE% (AreaFE expressed as a percentage of reference value) and conventional spirometry parameters in indicating severe hyperinflation.

Materials and methods

We used a cohort of 215 individuals with COPD. The presence of severe hyperinflation was defined as elevated air trapping (RV/TLC >60%) or reduced inspiratory fraction (inspiratory capacity [IC]/TLC <25%) measured using body plethysmography. AreaFE% was calculated by integrating the maximal expiratory flow-volume loop with the trapezoidal rule and expressing it as a percentage of the reference value estimated using predicted values of FVC, peak expiratory flow and forced expiratory flow at 25%, 50% and 75% of FVC. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify cut-offs that were used to indicate severe hyperinflation, which were then validated in a separate group of 104 COPD subjects.

Results

ROC analysis identified cut-offs of 15% and 20% for AreaFE% in indicating RV/TLC >60% and IC/TLC <25%, respectively (N=215). On validation (N=104), these cut-offs consistently registered the highest accuracy (80% each), sensitivity (68% and 75%) and specificity (83% and 80%) among conventional parameters in both criteria of severe hyperinflation.

Conclusion

AreaFE% consistently provides a superior estimation of severe hyperinflation using different indices, and may provide a convenient way to refer COPD patients for body plethysmography to address static lung volumes.

New Spirometry Indices for Detecting Mild Airflow Obstruction

The diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) relies on demonstration of airflow obstruction. Traditional spirometric indices miss a number of subjects with respiratory symptoms or structural lung disease on imaging. We hypothesized that utilizing all data points on the expiratory spirometry curves to assess their shape will improve detection of mild airflow obstruction and structural lung disease. We analyzed spirometry data of 8307 participants enrolled in the COPDGene study, and derived metrics of airflow obstruction based on the shape on the volume-time (Parameter D), and flow-volume curves (Transition Point and Transition Distance). We tested associations of these parameters with CT measures of lung disease, respiratory morbidity, and mortality using regression analyses. There were significant correlations between FEV₁/FVC with Parameter D (r = −0.83; p < 0.001), Transition Point (r = 0.69; p < 0.001), and Transition Distance (r = 0.50; p < 0.001). All metrics had significant associations with emphysema, small airway disease, dyspnea, and respiratory-quality of life (p < 0.001). The highest quartile for Parameter D was independently associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 3.22,95% CI 2.42–4.27; p < 0.001) but a substantial number of participants in the highest quartile were categorized as GOLD 0 and 1 by traditional criteria (1.8% and 33.7%). Parameter D identified an additional 9.5% of participants with mild or non-recognized disease as abnormal with greater burden of structural lung disease compared with controls. The data points on the flow-volume and volume-time curves can be used to derive indices of airflow obstruction that identify additional subjects with disease who are deemed to be normal by traditional criteria.

Impact of COPD on prognosis of lung cancer: from a perspective on disease heterogeneity

Background

COPD is an important comorbidity of lung cancer, but the impact of COPD on the outcomes of lung cancer remains uncertain. Because both COPD and lung cancer are heterogeneous diseases, we evaluated the link between COPD phenotypes and the prognosis of different histological subtypes of lung cancer.

Methods

In this retrospective study, subjects with a newly and pathologically confirmed diagnosis of lung cancer were enrolled from patients preparing for lung cancer surgery. All participants underwent pulmonary function test (PFT). The diagnosis of COPD was based on GOLD criteria. Lung cancer subtypes and COPD phenotypes were categorized by WHO classification of lung tumors and computer quantitative analysis of PFT. The HRs were estimated by Cox regression analysis.

Results

Among 2,222 lung cancer patients, 32.6% coexisted with COPD. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and therapy method, COPD was significantly associated with the decreased overall survival (OS) of lung cancer (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.57). With the increased severity of COPD, the OS of lung cancer was gradually worsened (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.08-1.39). But surgical treatment and high BMI were independent prognostic protective factors (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.56; HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99). Moreover, in terms of disease heterogeneity, emphysema-predominant phenotype of COPD was an independent prognostic risk factor for squamous carcinoma (HR 2.53, 95% CI 1.49-4.30). No significant relationship between COPD phenotype and lung cancer prognosis was observed among adenocarcinoma, small cell lung cancer, large cell lung cancer, and other subtype patients.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that COPD, especially emphysema-predominant phenotype, is an independent prognostic risk factor for squamous carcinoma only.

The link between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes and histological subtypes of lung cancer: a case-control study

Background

COPD is considered an independent risk factor for lung cancer. COPD and lung cancer are both very heterogeneous diseases, and the study herein investigates the link between COPD phenotypes and specific histological subtypes of lung cancer.

Methods

This case–control study comprised 2,283 patients with newly diagnosed pathological lung cancer and 2,323 non-lung cancer controls. All participants underwent pulmonary function tests. The diagnosis of COPD was based on Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criteria. Subtypes of the two diseases were categorized according to 2015 World Health Organization classification of lung cancer and computer quantification of airway collapse on maximum expiratory flow volume. ORs were estimated using logistic regression analysis.

Results

The prevalence of COPD was higher (32.8%) in lung cancer patients compared to controls (16.0%). After adjustment for age, sex, body-mass index, and smoking status, the presence of COPD significantly increased the risk of lung cancer (OR 2.88, 95% CI 2.48–3.34) and all common histological subtypes (ORs 2.04–5.26). Both emphysema-predominant and non-emphysema-predominant phenotypes of COPD significantly increased the risk of lung cancer (OR 4.43, 95% CI 2.85–6.88; OR 2.82, 95% CI 2.40–3.31). Higher risk of squamous-cell carcinoma and small-cell lung cancer was observed in patients with the emphysema-predominant than the non-emphysema-predominant phenotype (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.03–2.89; OR 3.74, 95% CI 1.64–8.53).

Conclusion

COPD was an independent risk factor for lung cancer and all common histological subtypes. Both emphysema-predominant and non-emphysema-predominant phenotypes of COPD significantly increased the risk of lung cancer. Relative to non-emphysema-predominant phenotype of COPD, emphysema-predominant phenotype had a higher risk of squamous-cell carcinoma and small-cell lung cancer.

Computer quantification of "angle of collapse" on maximum expiratory flow volume curve for diagnosing asthma-COPD overlap syndrome

Background

In a previous study, we demonstrated that asthma patients with signs of emphysema on quantitative computed tomography (CT) fulfill the diagnosis of asthma-COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS). However, quantitative CT measurements of emphysema are not routinely available for patients with chronic airway disease, which limits their application. Spirometry was a widely used examination tool in clinical settings and shows emphysema as a sharp angle in the maximum expiratory flow volume (MEFV) curve, called the “angle of collapse (AC)”. The aim of this study was to investigate the value of the AC in the diagnosis of emphysema and ACOS.

Methods

This study included 716 participants: 151 asthma patients, 173 COPD patients, and 392 normal control subjects. All the participants underwent pulmonary function tests. COPD and asthma patients also underwent quantitative CT measurements of emphysema. The AC was measured using computer models based on Matlab software. The value of the AC in the diagnosis of emphysema and ACOS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

The AC of COPD patients was significantly lower than that of asthma patients and control subjects. The AC was significantly negatively correlated with emphysema index (EI; r=−0.666, P<0.001), and patients with high EI had a lower AC than those with low EI. The ROC curve analysis showed that the AC had higher diagnostic efficiency for high EI (area under the curve =0.876) than did other spirometry parameters. In asthma patients, using the AC ≤137° as a surrogate criterion for the diagnosis of ACOS, the sensitivity and specificity were 62.5% and 89.1%, respectively.

Conclusion

The AC on the MEFV curve quantified by computer models correlates with the extent of emphysema. The AC may become a surrogate marker for the diagnosis of emphysema and help to diagnose ACOS.

Modelling the dynamics of expiratory airflow to describe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by expiratory airflow limitation, but current diagnostic criteria only consider flow till the first second and are therefore strongly debated. We aimed to develop a data-based individualized model for flow decline and to explore the relationship between model parameters and COPD presence. A second-order transfer function model was chosen and the model parameters (namely the two poles and the steady state gain (SSG)) from 474 individuals were correlated with COPD presence. The capability of the model to predict disease presence was explored using 5 machine learning classifiers and tenfold cross-validation. Median (95% CI) poles in subjects without disease were 0.9868 (0.9858-0.9878) and 0.9333 (0.9256-0.9395), compared with 0.9929 (0.9925-0.9933) and 0.9082 (0.9004-0.9140) in subjects with COPD (p < 0.001 for both poles). A significant difference was also found when analysing the SSG, being lower in COPD group 3.8 (3.5-4.2) compared with 8.2 (7.8-8.7) in subjects without (p < 0.0001). A combination of all three parameters in a support vector machines corresponded with highest sensitivity of 85%, specificity of 98.1% and accuracy of 88.2% to COPD diagnosis. The forced expiration of COPD can be modelled by a second-order system which parameters identify most COPD cases. Our approach offers an additional tool in case FEV1/FVC ratio-based diagnosis is doubted.