Retention in care, resource utilization, and costs for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: a retrospective cohort study

Economic analysis of a new four-panel rapid screening test in antenatal care in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda

BACKGROUND

We performed an economic analysis of a new technology used in antenatal care (ANC) clinics, the ANC panel. Introduced in 2019-2020 in five Rwandan districts, the ANC panel screens for four infections [hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), malaria, and syphilis] using blood from a single fingerstick. It increases the scope and sensitivity of screening over conventional testing.

METHODS

We developed and applied an Excel-based economic and epidemiologic model to perform cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses of this technology in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. Costs include the ANC panel itself, its administration, and follow-up treatment. Effectiveness models predicted impacts on maternal and infant mortality and other outcomes. Key parameters are the baseline prevalence of each infection and the effectiveness of early treatment using observations from the Rwanda pilot, national and international literature, and expert opinion. For each parameter, we found the best estimate (with 95% confidence bound).

RESULTS

The ANC panel averted 92 (69-115) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 1,000 pregnant women in ANC in Kenya, 54 (52-57) in Rwanda, and 258 (156-360) in Uganda. Net healthcare costs per woman ranged from $0.53 ($0.02-$4.21) in Kenya, $1.77 ($1.23-$5.60) in Rwanda, and negative $5.01 (-$6.45 to $0.48) in Uganda. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in dollars per DALY averted were $5.76 (-$3.50-$11.13) in Kenya, $32.62 ($17.54-$46.70) in Rwanda, and negative $19.40 (-$24.18 to -$15.42) in Uganda. Benefit-cost ratios were $17.48 ($15.90-$23.71) in Kenya, $6.20 ($5.91-$6.45) in Rwanda, and $25.36 ($16.88-$33.14) in Uganda. All results appear very favorable and cost-saving in Uganda.

CONCLUSION

Though subject to uncertainty, even our lowest estimates were still favorable. By combining field data and literature, the ANC model could be applied to other countries.

Community-based delivery of HIV treatment in Zambia: costs and outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The aim is to determine the total annual cost per patient treated and total cost per patient retained on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia in conventional care in facilities and across community-based differentiated service delivery (DSD) models.

DESIGN

Economic evaluation was conducted using retrospective electronic record review.Twenty healthcare facilities (13 with DSD models and 7 as comparison sites) in six of Zambia's 10 provinces were considered.

METHODS

All individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) >18 years old at the study sites were enrolled in a DSD model or conventional care by site type, respectively, with at least 12 months of follow-up data. Accessing care through DSD models [community adherence groups (CAGs), urban adherence groups (UAGs), home ART delivery and care, and mobile ART services] or facility-based conventional care with 3-monthly visits. Total annual cost per patient treated and the annual cost per patient retained in care 12 months after model enrolment. Retention in care was defined as attending a clinic visit at 12 months ± 3 months.

RESULTS

The DSD models assessed cost more per patient/year than conventional care. Costs ranged from an annual $116 to $199 for the DSD models, compared with $100 for conventional care. CAGs and UAGs increased retention by 2 and 14%, respectively. All DSD models cost more per patient retained at 12 months than conventional care. The CAG had the lowest cost/patient retained for DSD models ($140-157).

CONCLUSIONS

Although they achieve equal or improved retention in care, out-of-facility models of ART were more expensive than conventional care.

Cryptococcal Meningitis Screening and Community-based Early Adherence Support in People With Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Tanzania and Zambia: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Background

A randomized trial demonstrated that among people living with late-stage human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection initiating antiretroviral therapy, screening serum for cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) combined with adherence support reduced all-cause mortality by 28%, compared with standard clinic-based care. Here, we present the cost-effectiveness.

Methods

HIV-infected adults with CD4 count <200 cells/μL were randomized to either CrAg screening plus 4 weekly home visits to provide adherence support or to standard clinic-based care in Dar es Salaam and Lusaka. The primary economic outcome was health service care cost per life-year saved as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), based on 2017 US dollars. We used nonparametric bootstrapping to assess uncertainties and univariate deterministic sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of individual parameters on the ICER.

Results

Among the intervention and standard arms, 1001 and 998 participants, respectively, were enrolled. The annual mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was US$339 (95% confidence interval [CI], $331–$347), resulting in an incremental cost of the intervention of US$77 (95% CI, $66–$88). The incremental cost was similar when analysis was restricted to persons with CD4 count <100 cells/μL. The ICER for the intervention vs standard care, per life-year saved, was US$70 (95% CI, $43–$211) for all participants with CD4 count up to 200 cells/μL and US$91 (95% CI, $49–$443) among those with CD4 counts <100 cells /μL. Cost-effectveness was most sensitive to mortality estimates.

Conclusions

Screening for cryptococcal antigen combined with a short period of adherence support, is cost-effective in resource-limited settings.

Will differentiated care for stable HIV patients reduce healthcare systems costs?

INTRODUCTION

South Africa's National Department of Health launched the National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases in 2015. These guidelines include adherence clubs (AC) and decentralized medication delivery (DMD) as two differentiated models of care for stable HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. While the adherence guidelines do not suggest that provider costs (costs to the healthcare system for medications, laboratory tests and visits to clinics or alternative locations) for stable patients in these differentiated models of care will be lower than conventional, clinic-based care, recent modelling exercises suggest that such differentiated models could substantially reduce provider costs. In the context of continued implementation of the guidelines, we discuss the conditions under which provider costs of care for stable HIV patients could fall, or rise, with AC and DMD models of care in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

In prior studies of HIV care and treatment costs, three main cost categories are antiretroviral medications, laboratory tests and general interaction costs based on encounters with health workers. Stable patients are likely to be on the national first-line regimen (Tenofovir/Entricitabine/Efavarinz (TDF/FTC/EFV)), so no difference in the costs of medications is expected. Laboratory testing guidelines for stable patients are the same regardless of the model of care, so no difference in laboratory costs is expected as well. Based on existing information regarding the costs of clinic visits, AC visits and DMD drug pickups, we expect that for some clinics, visit costs for DMD or AC models of care could be less, but modestly so, than for conventional, clinic-based care. For other clinics, however, DMD or AC models could have higher visit costs (see Table 2).

CONCLUSIONS

The standard of care for stable patients has already been "differentiated" for years in South Africa, prior to the roll out of the new adherence guidelines. AC and DMD models of care, when implemented as envisioned in the guidelines, are unlikely to generate substantive reductions or increases in provider costs of care.

Redefining and revisiting cost estimates of routine ART care in Zambia: an analysis of ten clinics

INTRODUCTION

Accurate costing is key for programme planning and policy implementation. Since 2011, there have been major changes in eligibility criteria and treatment regimens with price reductions in ART drugs, programmatic changes resulting in clinical task-shifting and decentralization of ART delivery to peripheral health centres making existing evidence on ART care costs in Zambia out-of-date. As decision makers consider further changes in ART service delivery, it is important to understand the current drivers of costs for ART care. This study provides updates on costs of ART services for HIV-positive patients in Zambia.

METHODS

We evaluated costs, assessed from the health systems perspective and expressed in 2016 USD, based on an activity-based costing framework using both top-down and bottom-up methods with an assessment of process and capacity. We collected primary site-level costs and resource utilization data from government documents, patient chart reviews and time-and-motion studies conducted in 10 purposively selected ART clinics.

RESULTS

The cost of providing ART varied considerably among the ten clinics. The average per-patient annual cost of ART service was $116.69 (range: $59.38 to $145.62) using a bottom-up method and $130.32 (range: $94.02 to $162.64) using a top-down method. ART drug costs were the main cost driver (67% to 7% of all costs) and are highly sensitive to the types of patient included in the analysis (long-term vs. all ART patients, including those recently initiated) and the data sources used (facility vs. patient level). Missing capacity costs made up 57% of the total difference between the top-down and bottom-up estimates. Variability in cost across the ten clinics was associated with operational characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world costs of current routine ART services in Zambia are considerably lower than previously reported estimates and sensitive to operational factors and methods used. We recommend collection and monitoring of resource use and capacity data to periodically update cost estimates.

A tool for estimating antiretroviral medication coverage for HIV-infected women during pregnancy (PMTCT-ACT)

Background

In the typical prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV cascade of care discussion or analysis, the period of analysis begins at the first visit for antenatal care (ANC) for that pregnancy. This starting point is problematic for two reasons: (1) a large number of HIV-infected women are already on life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART) when presenting for ANC; and (2) women present to ANC at different gestational ages. The PMTCT ART Coverage Tool (PMTCT-ACT), which estimates the proportion of days covered (PDC) with ART, was developed to address each of these problems.

Methods

PDC is a preferred method to measure adherence to chronic medications, such as ART. For evaluating the PMTCT cascade of care, as indicated by PDC with ART over various time periods, a “starting point” based on a specific day before delivery must be defined that applies to all women (treatment experienced or naïve at the first ANC visit at any gestational age). Using the example of 168 days prior to delivery (24 weeks), PMTCT-ACT measures PDC with ART during that period. PMTCT-ACT is provided as a STATA do-file. Using an example dataset for two women (ID1 is treatment experienced; ID2 is treatment naïve), the details of each major portion of the tool (Parts 1–5) are presented. PMTCT-ACT along with the intermediate datasets created during the analysis are provided as supplemental files.

Conclusions

Evaluating the PMTCT cascade of care requires a standard definition of the follow-up period during pregnancy that applies to all HIV-infected pregnant women and a standard measure of adherence. PMTCT-ACT is a new tool that fits this purpose. PMTCT-ACT can also be easily adjusted to evaluate other ante- and post-natal periods (e.g., final 4 weeks, final 8 weeks, complete pregnancy period, initial 24 weeks postpartum, time periods consistent with infant HIV testing guidelines).

The costs of diabetes treatment in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Introduction

The rising burden of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries may cause financial strain on individuals and health systems. This paper presents a systematic review of direct medical costs for diabetes (types 1 and 2) in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, databases (PubMed, International Bibliography of Social Science, EconLit) were searched for publications reporting direct medical costs of type 1 and 2 diabetes. Data were extracted from all peer-reviewed papers meeting inclusion criteria, and were standardised into per-patient-visit, per-patient-year and/or per-complication-case costs (2016 US$).

Results

The search yielded 584 abstracts, and 52 publications were included in the analysis. Most articles were from Asia and Latin America, and most focused on type 2 diabetes. Per-visit outpatient costs ranged from under $5 to over $40 (median: $7); annual inpatient costs ranged from approximately $10 to over $1000 (median: $290); annual laboratory costs ranged from under $5 to over $100 (median: $25); and annual medication costs ranged from $15 to over $500 (median: $177), with particularly wide variation found for insulin. Care for complications was generally high-cost, but varied widely across countries and complication types.

Conclusion

This review identified substantial variation in diabetes treatment costs; some heterogeneity could be mitigated through improved methods for collecting, analysing and reporting data. Diabetes is a costly disease to manage in low- and middle-income countriesand should be a priority for the global health community seeking to achieve Universal Health Coverage.

Costs of streamlined HIV care delivery in rural Ugandan and Kenyan clinics in the SEARCH Studys

Objectives/design:

As antiretroviral therapy (ART) rapidly expands in sub-Saharan Africa using new efficient care models, data on costs of these approaches are lacking. We examined costs of a streamlined HIV care delivery model within a large HIV test-and-treat study in Uganda and Kenya.

Methods:

We calculated observed per-person-per-year (ppy) costs of streamlined care in 17 health facilities in SEARCH Study intervention communities (NCT: 01864603) via micro-costing techniques, time-and-motion studies, staff interviews, and administrative records. Cost categories included salaries, ART, viral load testing, recurring goods/services, and fixed capital/facility costs. We then modeled costs under three increasingly efficient scale-up scenarios: lowest-cost ART, centralized viral load testing, and governmental healthcare worker salaries. We assessed the relationship between community-specific ART delivery costs, retention in care, and viral suppression.

Results:

Estimated streamlined HIV care delivery costs were $291/ppy. ART ($117/ppy for TDF/3TC/EFV [40%]) and viral load testing ($110/ppy for 2 tests/year [39%]) dominated costs versus salaries ($51/ppy), recurring costs ($5/ppy), and fixed costs ($7/ppy). Optimized ART scale-up with lowest-cost ART ($100/ppy), annual viral load testing ($24/ppy), and governmental healthcare salaries ($27/ppy), lowered streamlined care cost to $163/ppy. We found clinic-to-clinic heterogeneity in retention and viral suppression levels versus streamlined care delivery costs, but no correlation between cost and either retention or viral suppression.

Conclusions:

In the SEARCH Study, streamlined HIV care delivery costs were similar to or lower than prior estimates despite including viral load testing; further optimizations could substantially reduce costs further. These data can inform global strategies for financing ART expansion to achieve UNAIDS 90–90–90 targets.

Incremental treatment costs for HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy: A 24-month micro-costing cohort study for a maternal and child health clinic in Kenya

BACKGROUND

To date, little information exists on the costs of providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) within maternal and child health (MCH) clinics in Kenya. The main objective of this analysis was to estimate the annual incremental cost of providing ART within a MCH clinic for adult women initiated on ART during pregnancy over the first one and two years on treatment. The study site was the District Hospital in Kericho, Kenya.

METHODS

A micro-costing approach from the provider's perspective, based on a retrospective review of patient medical records, was used to evaluate incremental costs of care (2012 USD). Cost per patient in two cohorts were evaluated: the MCH clinic group comprised of adult women who initiated ART at the site's MCH clinic during pregnancy between 2008-2011; and for comparison, the ART clinic group comprised of adult, non-pregnant women who initiated ART at the site's ART clinic during 2008-2011. The two groups were matched on age and baseline CD4 count at initiation. Retention at year one/two on ART was defined as having completed a clinic visit at 365/730 days on ART +/- 90 days.

RESULTS

For patients defined as retained in care at year one, average incremental costs per patient were $234 for the MCH clinic group (median: 215; IQR: 186, 282) and $292 in the ART clinic group (median: 227; IQR: 178, 357). ARV and laboratory costs were less on average for the MCH clinic group compared to the ART clinic group (due to lower cost regimens and fewer tests), while personnel costs were higher for the MCH clinic group.

CONCLUSIONS

The annual incremental cost per patient of providing ART were similar in the two clinic settings in 2012. With shifts in recommended ARV regimens and lab monitoring over time, annual costs of care (using 2016 USD unit costs) have remained relatively constant in nominal terms for the MCH clinic group but have fallen substantially for the ART clinic group (from nominal $292 in 2012 to nominal $227 in 2016).

Can differentiated care models solve the crisis in HIV treatment financing? Analysis of prospects for 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction: Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of financial and health system constraints has resulted in calls to maximize efficiency in ART service delivery. Adopting differentiated care models (DCMs) for ART could potentially be more cost-efficient and improve outcomes. However, no study comprehensively projects the cost savings across countries. We model the potential reduction in facility-level costs and number of health workers needed when implementing two types of DCMs while attempting to reach 90-90-90 targets in 38 sub-Saharan African countries from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: We estimated the costs of three service delivery models: (1) undifferentiated care, (2) differentiated care by patient age and stability, and (3) differentiated care by patient age, stability, key vs. general population status, and urban vs. rural location. Frequency of facility visits, type and frequency of laboratory testing, and coverage of community ART support vary by patient subgroup. For each model, we estimated the total costs of antiretroviral drugs, laboratory commodities, and facility-level personnel and overhead. Certain groups under four-criteria differentiation require more intensive inputs. Community-based ART costs were included in the DCMs. We take into account underlying uncertainty in the projected numbers on ART and unit costs.

Results: Total five-year facility-based ART costs for undifferentiated care are estimated to be US$23.33 billion (95% confidence interval [CI]: $23.3–$23.5 billion). An estimated 17.5% (95% CI: 17.4%–17.7%) and 16.8% (95% CI: 16.7%–17.0%) could be saved from 2016 to 2020 from implementing the age and stability DCM and four-criteria DCM, respectively, with annual cost savings increasing over time. DCMs decrease the full-time equivalent (FTE) health workforce requirements for ART. An estimated 46.4% (95% CI: 46.1%–46.7%) fewer FTE health workers are needed in 2020 for the age and stability DCM compared with undifferentiated care.

Conclusions: Adopting DCMs can result in significant efficiency gains in terms of reduced costs and health workforce needs, even with the costs of scaling up community-based ART support under DCMs. Efficiency gains remained flat with increased differentiation. More evidence is needed on how to translate analyzed efficiency gains into implemented cost reductions at the facility level.

Optimizing Prevention of HIV and Unplanned Pregnancy in Discordant African Couples

BACKGROUND

Dual method use, which combines condoms with a more effective modern contraceptive to optimize prevention of HIV and unplanned pregnancy, is underutilized in high-risk heterosexual couples.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Heterosexual HIV-discordant Zambian couples were enrolled from couples' voluntary HIV counseling and testing services into an open cohort with 3-monthly follow-up (1994-2012). Relative to dual method use, defined as consistent condom use plus modern contraception, we examine predictors of (1) condom-only use (suboptimal pregnancy prevention) or (2) modern contraceptive use with inconsistent condom use (effective pregnancy prevention and suboptimal HIV prevention).

RESULTS

Among 3,049 couples, dual method use occurred in 28% of intervals in M+F- and 23% in M-F+, p < 0.01; condom-only use in 56% in M+F- and 61% in M-F+, p < 0.01; and modern contraceptive use with inconsistent condom use in 16% regardless of serostatus. Predictors (p < 0.05) of condom-only use included the man being HIV+ (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 1.15); baseline oral contraceptive pill (aHR = 0.76), injectable (aHR = 0.48), or implant (aHR = 0.60) use; woman's age (aHR = 1.04 per 5 years) and lifetime number of sex partners (aHR = 1.01); postpartum periods (aHR = 1.25); and HIV stage of the index partner III/IV versus I (aHR = 1.10). Predictors (p < 0.05) of modern contraceptive use with inconsistent condom use included woman's age (aHR = 0.94 per 5 years) and HIV+ male circumcision (aHR = 1.51), while time-varying implant use was associated with more consistent condom use (aHR = 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-quarters of follow-up intervals did not include dual method use. This highlights the need for counseling to reduce unintended pregnancy and HIV transmission and enable safer conception.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the national decentralization policy of antiretroviral treatment programme in Zambia

Background

In resource-limited settings with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection such as Zambia, decentralization of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) treatment and care with effective use of resources is a cornerstone of universal treatment and care.

Objectives

This research aims to analyse the cost effectiveness of the National Mobile Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Services Programme in Zambia as a means of decentralizing ART services.

Methods

Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed using a decision analytic model and Markov model to compare the original ART programme, ‘Hospital-based ART’, with the intervention programme, Hospital-based plus ‘Mobile ART’, from the perspective of the district government health office in Zambia. The total cost of ART services, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were examined.

Results

The mean annual per-patient costs were 1259.16 USD for the original programme and 2601.02 USD for the intervention programme, while the mean number of QALYs was 6.81 for the original and 7.27 for the intervention programme. The ICER of the intervention programme relative to the original programme was 2965.17 USD/QALY, which was much below the willingness-to-pay (WTP), or three times the GDP per capita (4224 USD), but still over the GDP per capita (1408 USD). In the sensitivity analysis, the ICER of the intervention programme did not substantially change.

Conclusion

The National Mobile ART Services Programme in Zambia could be a cost-effective approach to decentralizing ART services into rural areas in Zambia. This programme could be expanded to more districts where it has not yet been introduced to improve access to ART services and the health of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in rural areas.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12962-017-0065-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The costs of providing antiretroviral therapy services to HIV-infected individuals presenting with advanced HIV disease at public health centres in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Findings from a randomised trial evaluating different health care strategies

BACKGROUND

Understanding the costs associated with health care delivery strategies is essential for planning. There are few data on health service resources used by patients and their associated costs within antiretroviral (ART) programmes in Africa.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study was nested within a large trial, which evaluated screening for cryptococcal meningitis and tuberculosis and a short initial period of home-based adherence support for patients initiating ART with advanced HIV disease in Tanzania and Zambia. The economic evaluation was done in Tanzania alone. We estimated costs of providing routine ART services from the health service provider's perspective using a micro-costing approach. Incremental costs for the different novel components of service delivery were also estimated. All costs were converted into US dollars (US$) and based on 2012 prices.

RESULTS

Of 870 individuals enrolled in Tanzania, 434 were enrolled in the intervention arm and 436 in the standard care/control arm. Overall, the median (IQR) age and CD4 cell count at enrolment were 38 [31, 44] years and 52 [20, 89] cells/mm3, respectively. The mean per patient costs over the first three months and over a one year period of follow up following ART initiation in the standard care arm were US$ 107 (95%CI 101-112) and US$ 265 (95%CI 254-275) respectively. ART drugs, clinic visits and hospital admission constituted 50%, 19%, and 19% of the total cost per patient year, while diagnostic tests and non-ART drugs (co-trimoxazole) accounted for 10% and 2% of total per patient year costs. The incremental costs of the intervention to the health service over the first three months was US$ 59 (p<0.001; 95%CI 52-67) and over a one year period was US$ 67(p<0.001; 95%CI 50-83). This is equivalent to an increase of 55% (95%CI 51%-59%) in the mean cost of care over the first three months, and 25% (95%CI 20%-30%) increase over one year of follow up.

Estimated Costs for Delivery of HIV Antiretroviral Therapy to Individuals with CD4+ T-Cell Counts >350 cells/uL in Rural Uganda

Background

Evidence favoring earlier HIV ART initiation at high CD4+ T-cell counts (CD4>350/uL) has grown, and guidelines now recommend earlier HIV treatment. However, the cost of providing ART to individuals with CD4>350 in Sub-Saharan Africa has not been well estimated. This remains a major barrier to optimal global cost projections for accelerating the scale-up of ART. Our objective was to compute costs of ART delivery to high CD4+count individuals in a typical rural Ugandan health center-based HIV clinic, and use these data to construct scenarios of efficient ART scale-up.

Methods

Within a clinical study evaluating streamlined ART delivery to 197 individuals with CD4+ cell counts >350 cells/uL (EARLI Study: NCT01479634) in Mbarara, Uganda, we performed a micro-costing analysis of administrative records, ART prices, and time-and-motion analysis of staff work patterns. We computed observed per-person-per-year (ppy) costs, and constructed models estimating costs under several increasingly efficient ART scale-up scenarios using local salaries, lowest drug prices, optimized patient loads, and inclusion of viral load (VL) testing.

Findings

Among 197 individuals enrolled in the EARLI Study, median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 569/uL (IQR 451–716). Observed ART delivery cost was $628 ppy at steady state. Models using local salaries and only core laboratory tests estimated costs of $529/$445 ppy (+/-VL testing, respectively). Models with lower salaries, lowest ART prices, and optimized healthcare worker schedules reduced costs by $100–200 ppy. Costs in a maximally efficient scale-up model were $320/$236 ppy (+/- VL testing). This included $39 for personnel, $106 for ART, $130/$46 for laboratory tests, and $46 for administrative/other costs. A key limitation of this study is its derivation and extrapolation of costs from one large rural treatment program of high CD4+ count individuals.

Conclusions

In a Ugandan HIV clinic, ART delivery costs—including VL testing—for individuals with CD4>350 were similar to estimates from high-efficiency programs. In higher efficiency scale-up models, costs were substantially lower. These favorable costs may be achieved because high CD4+ count patients are often asymptomatic, facilitating more efficient streamlined ART delivery. Our work provides a framework for calculating costs of efficient ART scale-up models using accessible data from specific programs and regions.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Factors Associated with Retention to Care in an HIV Clinic in Gabon, Central Africa

Background

Retention to HIV care is vital for patients’ survival, to prevent onward transmission and emergence of drug resistance. Travelling to receive care might influence adherence. Data on the functioning of and retention to HIV care in the Central African region are limited.

Methods

This retrospective study reports outcomes and factors associated with retention to HIV care at a primary HIV clinic in Lambaréné, Gabon. Adult patients who presented to this clinic between January 2010 and January 2012 were included. Outcomes were retention in care (defined as documented show-up for clinical visits, regardless of delay) or LTFU (defined as a patient not retained in care; on ART or ART naïve, not returning to care during the study period with a patient delay for scheduled visits of more than 6 months), and mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with respective outcomes. Qualitative data on reasons for LTFU were obtained from focus-group discussions.

Results

Of 223 patients included, 67.3% were female. The mean age was 40.5 (standard deviation 11.4) years and the median CD4 count 275 (interquartile range 100.5–449.5) cells/μL. In total, 34.1% were lost to follow up and 8.1% died. Documented tuberculosis was associated with increased risk of being LTFU (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.05–3.11, P = 0.03), whereas early starting anti-retroviral therapy (ART) was associated with a decreased risk of LTFU (aHR 0.43, 95%CI 0.24–0.76, P = 0.004), as was confirmed by qualitative data.

Conclusions

Retention to HIV care in a primary clinic in Gabon is relatively poor and interventions to address this should be prioritized in the HIV program. Early initiation of ART might improve retention in care.

A standards-based approach to quality improvement for HIV services at Zambia Defence Force facilities: results and lessons learned

INTRODUCTION

The Zambia Defence Force adopted the Standards-Based Management and Recognition approach to improve the quality of the HIV-related services at its health facilities. This quality improvement intervention relies on comprehensive, detailed assessment tools to communicate and verify adherence to national standards of care, and to test and implement changes to improve performance.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the intervention was conducted at eight Zambia Defence Force primary health facilities (four facilities implemented the intervention and four did not). Data from three previous analyses are combined to assess the effect of Standards-Based Management and Recognition on three domains: facility readiness to provide services; observed provider performance during antiretroviral therapy (ART) and antenatal care consultations; and provider perceptions of the work environment.

RESULTS

Facility readiness scores for ART improved on four of the eight standards at intervention sites, and one standard at comparison sites. Facility readiness scores for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV increased by 15 percentage points at intervention sites and 7 percentage points at comparison sites. Provider performance improved significantly at intervention sites for both ART services (from 58 to 84%; P < 0.01) and PMTCT services (from 58 to 73%; P = 0.003); there was no significant change at comparison sites. Providers' perceptions of the work environment generally improved at intervention sites and declined at comparison sites; differences in trends between study groups were significant for eight items.

CONCLUSIONS

A standards-based approach to quality improvement proved effective in supporting healthcare managers and providers to deliver ART and PMTCT services in accordance with evidence-based standards in a health system suffering from staff shortages.

Defining and analyzing retention-in-care among pregnant and breastfeeding HIV-infected women: unpacking the data to interpret and improve PMTCT outcomes

The prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) "cascade" describes the programmatic steps for pregnant and breastfeeding women that influence HIV transmission rates. To this end, HIV-infected pregnant women and mothers need access to health services and adhere to antiretroviral (ARV) prophylaxis or lifetime treatment. Within the cascade, the concept of "retention-in-care" is commonly used as a proxy for adherence to ARV interventions and, even, viral suppression. Yet surprisingly, there is no standard definition of retention-in-care either for the purposes of HIV surveillance or implementation research. Implicit to the concept of retention-in-care is the sense of continuity and receipt of care at relevant time points. In the context of PMTCT, the main challenge for surveillance and implementation research is to estimate effective coverage of ARV interventions over a prolonged period of time. These data are used to inform program management and also to estimate postnatal MTCT rates. Attendance of HIV-infected mothers at clinic at 12-month postpartum is often equated with full retention in PMTCT programs over this period. Yet, measurement approaches that fail to register missed visits, or inconsistent attendance or other missing data in the interval period, fail to capture patterns of attendance and care received by mothers and children and risk introducing systematic errors and bias. More importantly, providing only an aggregated rate of attendance as a proxy for retention-in-care fails to identify specific gaps in health services where interventions to improve retention along the PMTCT cascade are most needed. In this article, we discuss how data on retention-in-care can be understood and analyzed, and what are the implications and opportunities for programs and implementation research.