Residual susceptibility to measles among young adults in Victoria, Australia following a national targeted measles-mumps-rubella vaccination campaign

Australian mumps serosurvey 2012-2013: any cause for concern?

Objectives

To determine population-level immunity to mumps in Australia.

Methods

We tested randomly selected specimens from people aged 1-49 years using the Enzygnost anti-parotitis IgG enzyme immunoassay from an opportunistically collected serum bank in 2012-2013. Weighted estimates of the proportion seropositive and equivocal for mumps-specific IgG antibody were determined by age group and compared with two previous national serosurveys conducted in 2007-2008 and 1997-1998.

Results

Overall, 82.1% (95% CI 80.6-83.5%) of 2,729 specimens were positive or equivocal for mumps-specific IgG antibodies (71.1% positive [95% CI 69.4-72.9%]; 10.9% equivocal [95% CI 9.8-12.2%]). The proportion positive or equivocal was higher in 2012-2013 (82.1%) than in 2007-2008 (75.5%) and 1997-1998 (72.5%), but varied by age. The proportion positive or equivocal in 2012-2013 was above 80% for all age groups older than 1 year except for 30-34 year olds, corresponding to the 1978-1982 birth cohort previously identified as most likely to have missed out on a second MMR vaccine dose.

Conclusion

Seropositivity to mumps in 2012-2013 was well-maintained compared with previous serosurveys. Low mumps notifications over this period in Australia suggest an absence of community-based transmission of mumps infection in the general population, but recent outbreaks among Aboriginal adolescents and young adults in close-contact settings, despite high 2-dose MMR coverage, suggest that seroprotection may be insufficient in other similar settings in Australia.Seropositivity to mumps in 2012-2013 was well-maintained compared with previous serosurveys. Low mumps notifications over this period in Australia suggest an absence of community-based transmission of mumps infection in the general population, but recent outbreaks among Aboriginal adolescents and young adults in close-contact settings, despite high 2-dose MMR coverage, suggest that seroprotection may be insufficient in other similar settings in Australia.

Parental vaccination to reduce measles immunity gaps in Italy

High-income countries are experiencing measles reemergence as the result of suboptimal vaccine uptake and marked immunity gaps among adults. In 2017, the Italian Government introduced mandatory vaccination at school entry for ten infectious diseases, including measles. However, sustainable and effective vaccination strategies targeting adults are still lacking. We use a data-driven model of household demography to estimate the potential impact on future measles epidemiology of a novel immunization strategy, to be implemented on top of the 2017 regulation, which consists of offering measles vaccine to the parents of children who get vaccinated. Model simulations suggest that the current vaccination efforts in Italy would not be sufficient to interrupt measles transmission before 2045 because of the frequency of susceptible individuals between 17 and 44 years of age. The integration of the current policy with parental vaccination has the potential to reduce susceptible adults by 17–35%, increasing the chance of measles elimination before 2045 up to 78.9–96.5%.

Measles is one of the world’s most contagious diseases causing thousands of deaths every year, despite a safe and effective vaccine being available since the 1960s. High rates of vaccination – about 95% of each age group – are required to eliminate measles, but national and global health agencies struggle to achieve high vaccination rates because some parents were and still are hesitant to vaccinate their children. As a result, large measles epidemics continue to occur even in countries with well-established vaccination programs.

In Italy, low vaccination rates year after year have resulted in large numbers of unprotected youth and adults. The country has recently introduced mandatory measles vaccination at school entry to improve vaccination coverage among children. Yet a high proportion of measles cases in Italy continue to occur in people over 20 years old, a situation that could be improved by immunization programs targeting adults. One approach would be to take advantage of the compulsory vaccination of children by offering parents the vaccine at the same time.

Marziano et al. used computer modeling to estimate how various vaccination scenarios would affect measles spread in Italy. Their models showed that current vaccination policies targeting school age children would be unlikely to eliminate measles before 2045. On the other hand, if 50% of parents were also vaccinated, elimination could be achieved by 2042, and as early as 2031 if 99% of parents agreed to vaccination.

Marziano et al. show that a parental vaccination campaign could reduce the population of adults susceptible to measles in Italy and help the country stop the spread of the disease. However, more research is needed to assess how feasible and sustainable this policy would be. Additional policies to increase vaccination against measles in adults could also help, but parental vaccination has a key advantage: it does not require active targeting to recruit parents, since they are already immunizing their children.

Seroepidemiology: an underused tool for designing and monitoring vaccination programmes in low- and middle-income countries

Seroepidemiology, the use of data on the prevalence of bio-markers of infection or vaccination, is a potentially powerful tool to understand the epidemiology of infection before vaccination and to monitor the effectiveness of vaccination programmes. Global and national burden of disease estimates for hepatitis B and rubella are based almost exclusively on serological data. Seroepidemiology has helped in the design of measles, poliomyelitis and rubella elimination programmes, by informing estimates of the required population immunity thresholds for elimination. It contributes to monitoring of these programmes by identifying population immunity gaps and evaluating the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Seroepidemiological data have also helped to identify contributing factors to resurgences of diphtheria, Haemophilus Influenzae type B and pertussis. When there is no confounding by antibodies induced by natural infection (as is the case for tetanus and hepatitis B vaccines), seroprevalence data provide a composite picture of vaccination coverage and effectiveness, although they cannot reliably indicate the number of doses of vaccine received. Despite these potential uses, technological, time and cost constraints have limited the widespread application of this tool in low-income countries. The use of venous blood samples makes it difficult to obtain high participation rates in surveys, but the performance of assays based on less invasive samples such as dried blood spots or oral fluid has varied greatly. Waning antibody levels after vaccination may mean that seroprevalence underestimates immunity. This, together with variation in assay sensitivity and specificity and the common need to take account of antibody induced by natural infection, means that relatively sophisticated statistical analysis of data is required. Nonetheless, advances in assays on minimally invasive samples may enhance the feasibility of including serology in large survey programmes in low-income countries. In this paper, we review the potential uses of seroepidemiology to improve vaccination policymaking and programme monitoring and discuss what is needed to broaden the use of this tool in low- and middle-income countries.

A risk stratification approach to assessing for true cases of measles in a highly vaccinated population

OBJECTIVE

In Australia, the notification rate for measles fluctuates greatly between baseline and outbreak periods. We aimed to identify characteristics of notified cases that allow risk stratification in order to improve the efficiency of the public health response in an outbreak setting.

METHODS

Retrospective descriptive case series for all measles notifications made to the Victorian Government Department of Health between 1 August and 30 September 2013.

RESULTS

A total of 151 notifications were included in the analyses, of which 17 (11%) were confirmed as measles. Applying the clinical criteria of the measles case definition or identifying susceptible cases (determined by vaccination status) correctly identified all measles cases. Requiring cases to meet both criteria reduced sensitivity to 88%, but improved the positive predictive value (48% vs 25%) and retained a high negative predictive value (98.33%). Application of a risk stratification approach based on these features would have saved intensive public health follow-up for 79.5% of notifications in this outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Immune status and clinical features can reliably be used to predict which notifications are unlikely to become confirmed cases.

IMPLICATIONS

Risk stratification and modification of current surveillance practices may provide for a more efficient public health response, particularly during periods of increased case notification.

Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the measles effective reproduction number (R) in Australia by modelling routinely collected notification data.

METHODS

R was estimated for 2009-2011 by means of three methods, using data from Australia's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Method 1 estimated R as 1 - P, where P equals the proportion of cases that were imported, as determined from data on place of acquisition. The other methods estimated R by fitting a subcritical branching process that modelled the spread of an infection with a given R to the observed distributions of outbreak sizes (method 2) and generations of spread (method 3). Stata version 12 was used for method 2 and Matlab version R2012 was used for method 3. For all methods, calculation of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was performed using a normal approximation based on estimated standard errors.

FINDINGS

During 2009-2011, 367 notifiable measles cases occurred in Australia (mean annual rate: 5.5 cases per million population). Data were 100% complete for importation status but 77% complete for outbreak reference number. R was estimated as < 1 for all years and data types, with values of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60-0.70) obtained by method 1, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.56-0.72) by method 2 and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.38-0.57) by method 3.

CONCLUSION

The fact that consistent estimates of R were obtained from all three methods enhances confidence in the validity of these methods for determining R.

Recent increases in mumps incidence in Australia: the "forgotten" age group in the 1998 Australian Measles Control Campaign

OBJECTIVES

To describe the epidemiology of mumps and examine potential factors underlying the recent increase in the incidence of mumps in Australia.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Analytical descriptive study, for all Australian states and territories, of mumps notifications (1994-2007); hospitalisations for mumps (1994-2005); and mumps seroprevalence in a nationally representative sample of 2787 subjects (1997).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of notifications and hospitalisations for mumps; seropositivity by birth cohort.

RESULTS

Notified mumps cases increased from 60 in 2002 to 231 in 2005 and 512 in 2007. Between 1994 and 2005, there were 605 hospitalisations for mumps. Mumps seropositivity in all states and territories in 1997 was high (range, 87.1%-94.3%). The predominant age group affected by mumps shifted to adults over time: between 2005 and 2007, 41% of cases occurred among people aged 20-29 years. Cases were concentrated among the birth cohort of 1978 to 1982, who had higher rates of notifications and hospitalisations for mumps and a lower seropositivity rate (92% [95% CI, 89%-94%]) than other birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The birth cohort of 1978 to 1982 was too old to reliably receive a second dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in the 1998 Australian Measles Control Campaign and too young to have had mumps infection. Renewed efforts to maximise two-dose MMR coverage are important for prevention of mumps and measles in young adults.