A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

Assessment of Forest Cover Changes in Vavuniya District, Sri Lanka: Implications for the Establishment of Subnational Forest Reference Emission Level

Assessment of forest cover changes is required to establish the forest reference emission level (FREL) at any scale. Due to civil conflict, such assessments have not yet been undertaken in Sri Lanka, especially in the conflict zone. Here, we assessed the forest cover changes in Vavuniya District, Sri Lanka, from 2001 to 2020, using a combination of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and the phenology-based threshold classification (PBTC) method. Landsat 5 TM data for 2001, 2006, and 2010, and Landsat 8 OLI data for 2016 and 2020 were used to classify forest cover by categories, and their related changes could be assessed by four categories, namely dry monsoon forest, open forest, other lands, and water bodies. With an overall average accuracy of 87% and an average kappa coefficient of 0.83, forest cover was estimated at 57.6% of the total land area in 2020. There was an increase of 0.46% per annum for the entire district between 2001 and 2010, but a drastic loss of 0.60% per year was observed between 2010 and 2020. Specifically, the dry monsoon forest lost 0.30%, but open forest gained 3.62% annually over the same period. Loss and gain of forest cover resulted in carbon emissions and removals of 165,306.6 MgCO2 and 24,064.5 MgCO2 annually, respectively, over the same period. Our findings could be used to set the baseline trend of deforestation, based on which, a subnational forest reference emission level can be established as an emission benchmark, against which comparisons of carbon emissions following the implementation of REDD+ activities can be made, and result-based payment can be claimed under the Paris Agreement.

Similarities and Differences between International REDD+ and Transnational Deforestation-Free Supply Chain Initiatives—A Review

After years of multilateral deliberations on how to stop global deforestation, such as REDD+ under the UNFCCC, deforestation-free supply chain (DFSC) initiatives emerged from the private sector. Linking both concepts conceptually and in policy practice could provide for synergies and enable more effective approaches against global deforestation. To operationalise such a linkage, a prerequisite is the knowledge of both concepts’ key characteristics, as well as resulting similarities and differences. This literature review firstly identifies key characteristics that affects the potential impact of such concepts, secondly analyses if and how REDD+ and DFSC define these characteristics, and thirdly compares both concepts towards a potential linkage. The results show that a linkage of REDD+ and DFSC provides numerous complementarities which could foster the goal of halting deforestation. This includes for example the driver commercial agriculture, and in terms of permanence, leakage, and degradation. But close coordination is needed to avoid unintended negative consequences, especially for subsistence and smallholder agriculture. The comparison shows that the political consensus found under REDD+ provides a good basis to be supplemented with private sectors’ DFSC initiatives, but additional initiatives like the Bonn Challenge and investments in agroforestry are needed in order to ensure the long-term effect on forest conversion.

Questioning emissions-based approaches for the definition of REDD+ deforestation baselines in high forest cover/low deforestation countries

BACKGROUND

REDD+ is being questioned by the particular status of High Forest/Low Deforestation countries. Indeed, the formulation of reference levels is made difficult by the confrontation of low historical deforestation records with the forest transition theory on the one hand. On the other hand, those countries might formulate incredibly high deforestation scenarios to ensure large payments even in case of inaction.

RESULTS

Using a wide range of scenarios within the Guiana Shield, from methods involving basic assumptions made from past deforestation, to explicit modelling of deforestation using relevant socio-economic variables at the regional scale, we show that the most common methodologies predict huge increases in deforestation, unlikely to happen given the existing socio-economic situation. More importantly, it is unlikely that funds provided under most of these scenarios could compensate for the total cost of avoided deforestation in the region, including social and economic costs.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that a useful and efficient international mechanism should really focus on removing the underlying political and socio-economic forces of deforestation rather than on hypothetical result-based payments estimated from very questionable reference levels.

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.

Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD

One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

Mining and biodiversity offsets: a transparent and science-based approach to measure "no-net-loss"

Mining and associated infrastructure developments can present themselves as economic opportunities that are difficult to forego for developing and industrialised countries alike. Almost inevitably, however, they lead to biodiversity loss. This trade-off can be greatest in economically poor but highly biodiverse regions. Biodiversity offsets have, therefore, increasingly been promoted as a mechanism to help achieve both the aims of development and biodiversity conservation. Accordingly, this mechanism is emerging as a key tool for multinational mining companies to demonstrate good environmental stewardship. Relying on offsets to achieve "no-net-loss" of biodiversity, however, requires certainty in their ecological integrity where they are used to sanction habitat destruction. Here, we discuss real-world practices in biodiversity offsetting by assessing how well some leading initiatives internationally integrate critical aspects of biodiversity attributes, net loss accounting and project management. With the aim of improving, rather than merely critiquing the approach, we analyse different aspects of biodiversity offsetting. Further, we analyse the potential pitfalls of developing counterfactual scenarios of biodiversity loss or gains in a project's absence. In this, we draw on insights from experience with carbon offsetting. This informs our discussion of realistic projections of project effectiveness and permanence of benefits to ensure no net losses, and the risk of displacing, rather than avoiding biodiversity losses ("leakage"). We show that the most prominent existing biodiversity offset initiatives employ broad and somewhat arbitrary parameters to measure habitat value and do not sufficiently consider real-world challenges in compensating losses in an effective and lasting manner. We propose a more transparent and science-based approach, supported with a new formula, to help design biodiversity offsets to realise their potential in enabling more responsible mining that better balances economic development opportunities for mining and biodiversity conservation.

Forest cover: setting targets for the future

The International Year of Forests, declared by the UN, is a good occasion to discuss approaches to reducing forest degradation in developing countries. The articles collected in Thematic Forest Series form a diversity of ideas which is essential for setting the levels below which the countries' reduced emissions could be measured and credited. This editorial calls attention to the use of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change models.

Assessing data availability for the development of REDD-plus national reference levels

BACKGROUND

Data availability in developing countries is known to be extremely varied and is one of the constraints for setting the national reference levels (RLs) for the REDD-plus (i.e. 'Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries') under the UNFCCC. Taking Thailand as a case study country, this paper compares three types of RLs, which require different levels of datasets, including a simple historic RL, a projected forest-trend RL, and a business-as-usual (BAU) RL.

RESULTS

Other than the finding that different RLs yielded different estimations on future deforestation areas, the analysis also identified the characteristics of each RL. The historical RL demanded simple data, but can be varied in accordance with a reference year or period. The forest-trend RL can be more reliable than the historical RL, if the country's deforestation trend curve is formed smoothly. The complicated BAU RL is useful as it can demonstrate the additionality of REDD-plus activities and distinguish the country's unintentional efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

With the REDD-plus that involves widespread participation, there should be steps from which countries choose the appropriate RL; ranging from simpler to more complex measures, in accordance with data availability in each country. Once registered with REDD-plus, the countries with weak capacity and capability should be supported to enhance the data collection system in that country.

On fair, effective and efficient REDD mechanism design

The issues surrounding 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD) have become a major component of continuing negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper aims to address two key requirements of any potential REDD mechanism: first, the generation of measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) REDD credits; and secondly, the sustainable and efficient provision of emission reductions under a robust financing regime.To ensure the supply of MRV credits, we advocate the establishment of an 'International Emission Reference Scenario Coordination Centre' (IERSCC). The IERSCC would act as a global clearing house for harmonized data to be used in implementing reference level methodologies. It would be tasked with the collection, reporting and subsequent processing of earth observation, deforestation- and degradation driver information in a globally consistent manner. The IERSCC would also assist, coordinate and supervise the computation of national reference scenarios according to rules negotiated under the UNFCCC. To overcome the threats of "market flooding" on the one hand and insufficient economic incentives for REDD on the other hand, we suggest an 'International Investment Reserve' (IIR) as REDD financing framework. In order to distribute the resources of the IIR we propose adopting an auctioning mechanism. Auctioning not only reveals the true emission reduction costs, but might also allow for incentivizing the protection of biodiversity and socio-economic values. The introduced concepts will be vital to ensure robustness, environmental integrity and economic efficiency of the future REDD mechanism.

An assessment of monitoring requirements and costs of 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

BACKGROUND

Negotiations on a future climate policy framework addressing Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are ongoing. Regardless of how such a framework will be designed, many technical solutions of estimating forest cover and forest carbon stock change exist to support policy in monitoring and accounting. These technologies typically combine remotely sensed data with ground-based inventories. In this article we assess the costs of monitoring REDD based on available technologies and requirements associated with key elements of REDD policy.

RESULTS

We find that the design of a REDD policy framework (and specifically its rules) can have a significant impact on monitoring costs. Costs may vary from 0.5 to 550 US$ per square kilometre depending on the required precision of carbon stock and area change detection. Moreover, they follow economies of scale, i.e. single country or project solutions will face relatively higher monitoring costs.

CONCLUSION

Although monitoring costs are relatively small compared to other cost items within a REDD system, they should be shared not only among countries but also among sectors, because an integrated monitoring system would have multiple benefits for non-REDD management. Overcoming initialization costs and unequal access to monitoring technologies is crucial for implementation of an integrated monitoring system, and demands for international cooperation.