Survival and dispersal of a defined cohort of Irish cattle

Bovine Tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) Outbreak Duration in Cattle Herds in Ireland: A Retrospective Observational Study

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreaks, caused by Mycobacterium bovis infection, are a costly animal health challenge. Understanding factors associated with the duration of outbreaks, known as breakdowns, could lead to better disease management policy development. We undertook a retrospective observational study (2012-2018) and employed Finite Mixture Models (FMM) to model the outcome parameter, and to investigate how factors were associated with duration for differing subpopulations identified. In addition to traditional risk factors (e.g., herd size, bTB history), we also explored farm geographic area, parcels/farm fragmentation, metrics of intensity via nitrogen loading, and whether herds were designated controlled beef finishing units (CBFU) as potential risk factors for increased duration. The final model fitted log-normal distributions, with two latent classes (k) which partitioned the population into a subpopulation around the central tendency of the distribution, and a second around the tails of the distribution. The latter subpopulation included longer breakdowns of policy interest. Increasing duration was positively associated with recent (<3 years) TB history and the number of reactors disclosed, (log) herd size, beef herd-type relative to other herd types, number of land parcels, area, being designated a CBFU ("feedlot") and having high annual inward cattle movements within the "tails" subpopulation. Breakdown length was negatively associated with the year of commencement of breakdown (i.e., a decreasing trend) and non-significantly with the organic nitrogen produced on the farm (N kg/hectare), a measure of stocking density. The latter finding may be due to confounding effects with herd size and area. Most variables contributed only moderately to explaining variation in breakdown duration, that is, they had moderate size effects on duration. Herd-size and CBFU had greater effect sizes on the outcome. The findings contribute to evidence-based policy formation in Ireland.

Is moving from targeted culling to BCG-vaccination of badgers (Meles meles) associated with an unacceptable increased incidence of cattle herd tuberculosis in the Republic of Ireland? A practical non-inferiority wildlife intervention study in the Republic of Ireland (2011-2017)

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) remains as a costly disease of cattle-herds in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). This persistence is partially attributable to the presence of M. bovis infection in a wildlife reservoir, the European badger (Meles meles). Thus, both area-wide and limited-area targeted-badger-culling have been part of the ROI-BTB control/eradication program to help reduce the future incidence of a cattle-herd BTB breakdown (i.e. a "new herd-level occurrence of BTB"). However, neither badger-culling practice can be sustained as a major component in the ongoing BTB eradication program in the ROI. Vaccination of badgers with Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been proposed as an alternative to badger culling. Thus, in 2011, a five-year non-inferiority study was implemented in seven counties in the ROI. This study was designed to compare and contrast the cattle-herd-BTB-incidence in areas where intramuscular badger vaccination would be implemented versus the cattle-herd-BTB-incidence in the remaining area of the same county where targeted-badger-culling was maintained as the standard treatment response to probable badger-sourced BTB breakdowns. Our outcome of interest was a new cattle-herd-BTB-episode (breakdown) with a total of >2 standard skin-test (SICTT) reactors detected during the episode. Treatments (badger vaccination or targeted badger culling) were cluster allocated based on where the majority of the herd owner's land was located. To assess the impact of the two treatments, we compared the incidence-risk, of our defined outcome, for cattle herds in the area under vaccination to the outcome incidence-risk for cattle herds in the remainder of the same county after 4 and 5 years of having implemented badger vaccination. A random-effects logit model with adjustment for clustering by treatment, and statistical control of herd-type, herd-size and five-year prior-BTB-episode history was used for our analyses. Although not included in the logistic model, a relative badger density metric based on the annual number of badgers captured-per-sett-night of capturing effort was developed for each treatment area; this metric indicated that relative badger density was approximately 40 % higher in vaccination areas than in the targeted badger-culling areas during our study. Overall, our study results indicated that vaccination was not inferior to targeted badger-culling in four counties and badger vaccination was deemed to produce ambivalent results in one (County Cork North) of the seven study sites in the ROI. A post-study investigation, in County Galway, where vaccination was deemed inferior to target culling, revealed that widespread purchases of cattle from a nearby cattle mart, by herd owners in the vaccination-area, was associated with the increased herd and vaccination-area risk of BTB. No single "biasing hypothesis" was evident for the apparent vaccine inferiority in the second study site (County Monaghan) where vaccination was deemed inferior to targeted culling; hence no further investigations were conducted.

A visual representation of cattle movement in Ireland during 2016

The aim of this study was to create a clear visual representation of the live movements of cattle in the Republic of Ireland over the course of the year 2016. The animation created can be viewed online: https://youtu.be/PTCdPMnenBw This animation was created to be a communication tool to enable stakeholders to appreciate the extent of high risk cattle movements (farm to farm, farm to market to farm) in the Republic of Ireland and to highlight the potential role that these movements may play in the spread of infectious diseases of cattle in Ireland from one farm to another.

Bovine Tuberculosis in Britain and Ireland - A Perfect Storm? the Confluence of Potential Ecological and Epidemiological Impediments to Controlling a Chronic Infectious Disease

Successful eradication schemes for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) have been implemented in a number of European and other countries over the last 50 years. However, the islands of Britain and Ireland remain a significant aberration to this trend, with the recent exception of Scotland. Why have eradication schemes failed within these countries, while apparently similar programs have been successful elsewhere? While significant socio-economic and political factors have been discussed elsewhere as key determinants of disease eradication, here we review some of the potential ecological and epidemiological constraints that are present in these islands relative to other parts of Europe. We argue that the convergence of these potential factors may interact additively to diminish the potential of the present control programs to achieve eradication. Issues identified include heterogeneity of diagnostic testing approaches, the presence of an abundant wildlife reservoir of infection and the challenge of sustainably managing this risk effectively; the nature, size, density and network structure of cattle farming; potential effects of Mycobacterium bovis strain heterogeneity on disease transmission dynamics; possible impacts of concurrent endemic infections on the disclosure of truly infected animals; climatological differences and change coupled with environmental contamination. We further argue that control and eradication of this complex disease may benefit from an ecosystem level approach to management. We hope that this perspective can stimulate a new conversation about the many factors potentially impacting bTB eradication schemes in Britain and Ireland and possibly stimulate new research in the areas identified.

The Herd-Level Sensitivity of Abattoir Surveillance for Bovine Tuberculosis: Simulating the Effects of Current and Potentially Modified Meat Inspection Procedures in Irish Cattle

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has published a series of opinions to assess the impact of changing from the current meat inspection procedures (CMI) to visual-only inspection (VOI) procedures. Concern has been raised that changes from CMI to VOI would adversely affect the effectiveness of surveillance for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in EU member states, both for countries with and without official status of bTB freedom (OTF and non-OTF countries, respectively). This study was conducted to estimate the impact of a change from CMI to VOI in abattoirs on herd-level detection sensitivity in Ireland, a non-OTF country. Using national Irish data, we identified all herds that sold at least one animal to slaughter during 2010-12 whilst unrestricted for bTB. For each of these herds, we calculated the number of cattle sent to slaughter whilst unrestricted, the number of factory lesion tests (FLT) that had been performed, and estimated the apparent within-herd prevalence (APwh). A FLT is a whole-herd test conducted in a herd following the confirmation of bTB in an animal at slaughter. We considered five different inspection scenarios, each based on meat inspection and bacteriology in series, including current meat inspection (CMI) and four visual-only inspection scenarios (VOI2, VOI3, VOI4, VOI5) with reducing inspection sensitivities. Separately for each inspection scenario, a simulation model was used to estimate the herd-level detection sensitivity and the number of bTB-herds (that is, herds that sent at least one animal detected with M. bovis to slaughter when unrestricted during 2010-12) that would and would not be detected. The simulated mean herd-level detection sensitivity estimates were 0.24 for CMI, and 0.16, 0.12, 0.10 and 0.08 for VOI2-5, assuming a 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-fold decrease, respectively, in the animal-level detection sensitivity of VOI relative to that of CMI. The estimated number of non-detected bTB-herds is substantial with CMI, and increases in the series of VOI scenarios with decreasing herd-level detection sensitivity. If VOI were introduced without alternative surveillance means to compensate for the decrease in animal-level inspection sensitivity, such changes might jeopardise bTB surveillance, control and eradication programmes in cattle herds of non-OTF countries, including Ireland.

Spatial and risk factor analysis of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus after the first-year compulsory phase of BVD eradication programme in Northern Ireland

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD), which is a contagious pathogen that can have a significant economic impact on cattle industries. In Northern Ireland (NI), the compulsory phase of a BVD eradication programme was implemented in 2016. The aim of this retrospective population based study was to utilize herd-level data after the first year of the compulsory phase (March 2016-March 2017) to determine the spatial distribution and variation of BVDV, to identify clusters of infection, and to quantify some risk factors associated with BVD in NI. Global spatial clustering (autocorrelation) and local spatial hot-spot analyses were used to specify the clustering areas (hot- and cold-spot). A suite of multivariable logistic analyses was performed to estimate the associations of spatial and non-spatial factors (relating to herd characteristics) with the risk of being a BVDV positive herd. Final models were compared by evaluating the model fit and the ability to account for spatial autocorrelation in the study area. There were 17,186 herds included in the analysis. The herd-level prevalence of BVDV was 11.31%. Significant spatial clustering of BVDV positive herds was presented in the central region of NI. A mixed effects logistic model, with a spatial random effect term, was considered the best model. The final model showed that a positive BVDV status during the voluntary phase prior to the compulsory phase started (OR = 2.25; CI 95% = 1.85-2.73), larger herd size (OR = 6.19; CI 95% = 5.22-7.34 for herd size > 100 animals) and a larger number of positive nearest neighbours within 4 km radius (OR = 1.24; CI 95% = 1.05-1.47 for 8-9 neighbours and OR = 1.41; CI 95% = 1.20-1.65 for 10-12 neighbours) were significantly related to the risk of a herd being tested positive for BVDV. The clear spatial pattern from the local spatial clustering analyses could be used for targeted surveillance and control measures by focusing on the central region of NI.

Prevalence and distribution of exposure to Schmallenberg virus in Irish cattle during October 2012 to November 2013

Background

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first identified in November 2011. It is a novel Orthobunyavirus (family Bunyaviridae) whose main ill effect is congenital malformation of the musculoskeletal and central nervous systems. It is borne by Culicoides spp., and has spread extensively in western Europe. The first case of SBV in Ireland was diagnosed in October 2012. It was anticipated that once the virus emerged in Ireland that there would be wide scale or nationwide spread over the course of the 2013 vector season. The objectives of this study were to determine the seroprevalence and distribution of exposure to Schmallenberg virus in Irish cattle from November 2012 to November 2013.

Methods

Samples of brain for the pathology based surveillance were collected from malformed bovine and ovine foetuses submitted for post mortem examination. These samples were tested for SBV using RT-qPCR. Three serological surveys were carried out on sera submitted for the national brucellosis eradicartion programme. A spatial analysis of both sets of data was carried out.

Results

Between October 2012 and 10th May 2013, SBV was confirmed by RT-qPCR in brain tissues from malformed foetuses obtained from 49 cattle herds and 30 sheep flocks in Ireland. In national serosurveys conducted between November 2012 until November 2013 the herd-level and animal-level SBV seroprevalences in cattle were 53 and 36 % respectively for the first survey, 51 and 35 % for the second survey and 53 and 33 % for the third survey. The herd level seroprevalence in counties ranged from 0 to 100 %, with the counties in the south and southeast having the highest seroprevalence (>50 %), the midlands a moderate herd level seroprevalence (10–50 %) while northern and north western counties had a low herd level seroprevalence (0–10 %). There was close spatial agreement between the results of the two different targeted surveillance strategies.

Conclusions

At the end of the 2012 vector season, there was widespread exposure to SBV among herds in southern and south eastern Ireland. During 2013, there was little or no evidence of further outward spread, unlike the situation in several other European countries. Given the lack of evidence for circulation of the virus since 2012, it is likely that the younger age cohort in herds previously exposed to SBV and substantial proportions of animals of all ages on the margins of affected areas are immunologically naïve to SBV, and would be susceptible to infection if the virus were to re-emerge.

Understanding and managing bTB risk: perspectives from Ireland

There is substantial variation in herd risk for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Ireland, with most herds playing little to no role in the ongoing endemic. In infected areas, bTB persistence (affecting one or a group of herds) is a key feature of the infection. In this paper, we present our current understanding and management of bTB risk in Ireland, based on a detailed review of research and policy. There is close interaction between science and policy in Ireland, seeking both to understand and effectively manage bTB risk. Detailed research on bTB persistence is presented, including current understanding of the relative importance of different infection sources, which can include residual infection in cattle and/or re-infection, either from local sources or following cattle introduction. In recent years, there have been three primary drivers for policy change, including scientific advances, ongoing improvements to programme supports, and ongoing programme review. In this review, three key future programme challenges are identified. Although good progress is being made, eradication has not yet been achieved. Firstly, a key question concerns the additional effort that will be required, to move towards final eradication. Secondly, a percentage of non-infected animals are falsely positive to current testing methods. This is an ongoing challenge, given the imperfect specificity of test methods but will become more so, as the positive predictive value falls with reducing bTB prevalence. Finally, there is a need to re-engage with the farming community, so that they play a much greater role in programme ownership.

Future risk of bovine tuberculosis recurrence among higher risk herds in Ireland

Within the Irish national bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication programme, controls are tighter on higher risk herds, known as H-herds. These H-herds are defined as herds that have previously had a bTB restriction (also known as a bTB episode), with at least 2 animals positive to the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT) or with a bTB lesion detected at slaughter. Such herds are considered at higher risk of recurrence following the end of the bTB episode. In this study, we examined if, and when, the future bTB risk of H-herds returned to a similar level comparable to herds with no history of bTB. In addition, the proportion of bTB episodes in 2012 that could be attributed to the recent introduction of an infected animal was also estimated, providing an update of earlier work. The study population consisted of all Irish herds that were not bTB restricted at the start of 2012 and with at least one whole-herd SICTT in 2012, with the herd being the unit of interest. The outcome measure was a bTB restriction, defined as any herd where at least 1 standard SICTT reactor or an animal with a bTB lesion at slaughter in 2012 was identified. A logistic regression model was used to model the probability of a herd being restricted in 2012. Herds that were previously restricted had significantly higher odds of being restricted in 2012 compared to herds that had not. Similarly, the odds of being restricted in 2012 decreased as the time since the previous restriction increased, but increased as the severity of the previous restriction increased. Odds of being restricted also increased with an increase (although not linear) in herd size, the number of animals greater than 1 year of age purchased in 2011, the county incidence rate and the proportion of cows in the herd. The recent introduction of an infected animal accounted for 7.4% (6.7-8.2) of herd restrictions. This study confirms the key role of past bTB history in determining the future risk of Irish herds, with the odds related to both the severity of and time since the previous restriction. It also illustrates the difficulty in clearly defining H-herds, noting that risk persists for extended periods following a bTB restriction, regardless of breakdown severity. There is a need for robust controls on H-herds for an extended period post de-restriction.

Panmictic structure of the Cryptosporidium parvum population in Irish calves: influence of prevalence and host movement

In total, 245 Cryptosporidium parvum specimens obtained from calves in 205 Irish herds between 2003 and 2005 were subtyped by sequencing the glycoprotein gene gp60 and performing multilocus analysis of seven markers. The transmission dynamics of C. parvum and the influence of temporal, spatial, parasitic, and host-related factors on the parasite (sub)populations were studied. The relationship of those factors to the risk of cryptosporidiosis was also investigated using results from 1,368 fecal specimens submitted to the veterinary laboratories for routine diagnosis during 2005. The prevalence was greatest in the northwest and midwest of the country and on farms that bought in calves. The panmixia (random mating) detected in the C. parvum population may relate to its high prevalence, the cattle density, and the frequent movement of cattle. However, local variations in these factors were reflected in the C. parvum subpopulations. This study demonstrated the importance of biosecurity in the control of bovine cryptosporidiosis (e.g., isolation and testing of calves before introduction into a herd). Furthermore, the zoonotic risk of C. parvum was confirmed, as most specimens possessed GP60 and MS1 subtypes previously described in humans.

Aspects of bovine herpesvirus-1 infection in dairy and beef herds in the Republic of Ireland

Background

Infection with bovine herpesvirus-1 (BHV-1) causes a wide range of disease manifestations, including respiratory disease and abortion, with world-wide distribution. The primary objective of the present study was to describe aspects of BHV-1 infection and control on Irish farms, including herd-level seroprevalence (based on pooled sera) and vaccine usage.

Methods

The characteristics of a diagnostic indirect BHV-1 antibody ELISA test when used on serum pools were evaluated using laboratory replicates for use in the seroprevalence study. The output from this indirect ELISA was expressed as a percentage positivity (PP) value. A proposed cut off (PCO) PP was applied in a cross-sectional study of a stratified random sample of 1,175 Irish dairy and beef cattle herds in 2009, using serum pools, to estimate herd seroprevalence. The study was observational, based primarily on the analysis of existing samples, and only aggregated results were reported. For these reasons, ethical approval was not required. Bulk milk samples from a subset of 111 dairy herds were analysed using the same ELISA. Information regarding vaccine usage was determined in a telephone survey.

Results

A PCO PP of 7.88% was determined to give 97.1% sensitivity and 100% specificity relative to the use of the ELISA on individual sera giving maximization of the prevalence independent Youden's index, on receiver operating characteristics analysis of replicate results. The herd-level BHV-1 seroprevalence was 74.9% (95% CI - 69.9%-79.8%), with no significant difference between dairy and beef herds. 95.5% agreement in herd classification was found between bulk milk and serum pools. Only 1.8 percent of farmers used BHV-1 marker vaccine, 80% of which was live while 75% of vaccinated herds were dairy.

A significant association was found between herd size (quartiles) and seroprevalence (quartiles).

Conclusions

The results from this study indicate BHV-1 infection is endemic, although BHV-1 vaccines are rarely used, in the cattle population in Ireland.

Predictors of the first between-herd animal movement for cattle born in 2002 in Ireland

Movement of animals between farms represents a potential risk of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) and other disease transmission. The objectives of this study were to identify and quantify risk factors associated with the first between-herd movement of animals (denoted as risk move). A random sample of 1 percent of Irish calf births registered for 2002 (20,182 animals) was selected. Descriptive and survival analysis on movement over the period 2002-2005 was performed. A total of 12,119 (60%) of animals experienced a risk move over the 4-year study period. Among those that moved, 57% did so within the first 12 months of age. For animals in dairy herds, an early peak in risk move events was observed within the first 12 weeks of age; whereas in animals from suckler herds, a later risk move peak was observed between 21 and 36 weeks of age. The survival models identified a number of risk factors: two that appeared most important in predicting a risk move were gender and enterprise type. Males had a hazard ratio of 2.6 times that of females. The hazards for enterprise type, varied over time, thus a time-varying covariate (ent_type×ln(time)) was included in the Cox model. At 7 days of age, females in suckler herds were at 0.14 times the hazard of females in dairy herds for risk move, and over time, the hazards converged, equalised by day 140, and then diverged, so that by 4 years of age, females in suckler herds were at 4.64 times the hazard of females in dairy herds. Herds with a history of selling animals in previous years maintained that record during the study period with increased hazard of risk move. Enterprise type interacted with gender so that relative to females, males from dairy herds were at greater hazard of risk move than males from suckler herds. Hazard of risk move was also a function of ln (herd area), so that each doubling of farm area was accompanied by a 30.6% decrease in the hazards. The main conclusion was that risk of movement related disease transmission also depends on the purpose of the movement whether for breeding or for beef finishing. While males were at greater hazard of movement than females, they would have a shorter lifespan, thus limiting the opportunity for further transmission post-movement.

Spatial clustering of TB-infected cattle herds prior to and following proactive badger removal

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is primarily a disease of cattle. In both Ireland and the UK, badgers (Meles meles) are an important wildlife reservoir of infection. This paper examined the hypothesis that TB is spatially correlated in cattle herds, established the range of correlation and the effect, if any, of proactive badger removal on this. We also re-analysed data from the Four Area Project in Ireland, a large-scale intervention study aimed at assessing the effect of proactive badger culling on bovine TB incidence in cattle herds, taking possible spatial correlation into account. We established that infected herds are spatially correlated (the scale of spatial correlation is presented), but at a scale that varies with time and in different areas. Spatial correlation persists following proactive badger removal.