Relationship of relative poverty and social relationship on mortality around retirement: a 10-year follow-up of the Komo-Ise cohort

What influence farmers' relative poverty in China: A global analysis based on statistical and interpretable machine learning methods

Poverty eradication has always been a major challenge to global development and governance, which received widespread attention from each country. With the completion poverty alleviation task in 2020, relative poverty governance becomes an important issue to be solved in China urgently. Because of a large population, poor infrastructures, insufficient resources, and long-term uneven development raising the living standard of farmers in rural areas is critical to China's success in realizing moderate prosperity. Therefore, identifying the poor farmers, exploring the influence factors to relative poverty, and clarifying its effect mechanism in rural areas are significant for the subsequent poverty governance. Most of the previous studies adopted the method of apriori assuming the factor system and verifying the hypothesis. We innovatively constructed a relative poverty index system consistent with China's actual conditions, selecting all the possible variables that could affect relative poverty based on the existing literature, including individual characteristics, psychological endowment, and geographical environment, and rebuilt an experimental database. Then, through data processing and data analysis, the main factors influencing the relative poverty of farmers were systematically sorted out based on the machine learning method. Finally, 25 chosen influencing factors were discussed in detail. Research findings show that: 1) Machine learning algorithm is proved it could be well applied in relative poverty fields, especially XGBoost, which achieves 81.9% accuracy and the score of ROC_AUC reaches 0.819. 2) This study sheds light on many new research directions in applying machine learning for relative poverty research, besides, the paper offers an integral framework and beneficial reference for target identification using machine learning algorithms. 3) In addition, by utilizing the interpretable tools, the "black-box" of ML become transparent through PDP and SHAP explanation, it also reveals that machine learning models can readily handle the non-linear association relationship.

Living alone and cardiovascular outcomes: a meta-analysis of 11 cohort studies

To explore whether living alone could increase the risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science from their inception to 5 October 2020. Cohort studies evaluating the relationship between living alone and cardiovascular outcomes were included. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore which characteristics would affect the relationship. A total of 13 effect sizes obtained from 11 studies were included and spanned from 1993 to 2019, with 424,286 participants. This study found that living alone increased the risk of cardiovascular outcomes (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10-1.36, I² = 80.3%, P = 0.000). In subgroup analyses, living alone increased the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients from Europe (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.17-1.61, I² = 76.2%, P = 0.000), but not increased in Asia (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.83-1.66, I² = 76.2%, P = 0.000) and multiple regions (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.96-1.08, I² = 0.0%, P = 0.738). For different cardiovascular outcomes, living alone has statistical significance in increasing the risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.05-1.46, I² = 84.0%, P = 0.000) and myocardial infarction (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.21, I² = 29.6%, P = 0.213). The risk of cardiovascular mortality in men was higher than women (HR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.24-1.86 vs HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.85-1.20; P < 0.05 for interaction). Sensitivity analysis suggested that the results of the meta-analysis were robust. In conclusion, living alone could increase the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and men were more prone to cardiovascular mortality and myocardial infarction.

Removable partial dentures and mortality among partially edentulous adults

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the use of removable partial dentures (RPDs) has an effect on long-term survival outcomes amongst partially edentulous adults.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and linked to public-use mortality files for the period up to 2019. Partially edentulous adults with fewer than 20 teeth were included. RPD use and dentition status were determined by clinical examination. The cohort was propensity score weighted to create a sample which was balanced across 27 covariates (sociodemographics, health behaviors and insurance, laboratory markers, and general health status). Survival analysis was undertaken to compute absolute (mortality rate and median survival time) and relative (event time ratio [ETR]) measures of exposure effect.

RESULTS

The analyzed cohort included 1246 participants, which equated to 22,557 person-years of follow-up. The difference in all-cause mortality rate between RPD wearers and non-wearers was found to be -6.5 (95% CI: -11.6 to -1.4), with the median survival time in RPD wearers being 3.1 years longer (20.3 years versus 17.2 years). A 26% increase in survival time was observed in RPD wearers (ETR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.37) and it was found that, for every 7.5 individuals treated with RPDs, one death would be prevented after 10 years of treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of RPDs may have long-term benefits in reducing mortality amongst adults with a non-functional dentition, but further research is needed to validate these findings and assess the factors mediating the relationship.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The use of RPDs may have long-term benefits in reducing mortality amongst adults with a non-functional dentition.

Examining health risk behaviors of self-employed and employed workers in Japan: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Self-employed workers have a higher risk for adverse health outcomes than employed workers. However, the differences in health risk behaviors by employment status are largely unknown. This study examined differences in health risk behaviors between self-employed and employed (permanent/non-permanent) workers by sex and age (20-59 years, 60-79 years).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional study involving community-dwelling adults living in urban cities in Japan.

METHODS

In 2019, we conducted a mail survey in Wako city, Saitama, and Fuchu city, Tokyo. In total, 30,315 adults aged ≥18 years were randomly selected, and 14,185 completed the survey (response rate: 46.8%). The participants for analysis were 8538 workers. Health risk behaviors included physical inactivity (<150 min/wk of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity), prolonged sitting (>480 min/d), high-frequency drinking (≥3 d/wk), tobacco use (current smoker), and overweight (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m²). We also calculated the total number of health risk behaviors.

RESULTS

Self-employed workers had more health risk behaviors than permanent and non-permanent employees, with this difference more significant among younger males. In younger males, compared with self-employment, permanent employment was associated with less tobacco use, and non-permanent employment was associated with less physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, high-frequency drinking, and overweight. In younger females, non-permanent employment was associated with less prolonged sitting and overweight than self-employment. In older males and females, the prevalence of physical inactivity was lower in non-permanent employed than in self-employed workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Promoting health behaviors among self-employed may be beneficial for reducing health inequalities between self-employed and employed workers.

Social frailty increases the risk of all-cause mortality: A longitudinal analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

OBJECTIVES

Social frailty is a common condition in older people, but its consequences are largely unknown. Therefore, in this longitudinal analysis, we aimed to investigate the association between social frailty and risk of all-cause mortality in a large sample of older people.

DESIGN

Longitudinal, cohort.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

Older people participating to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).

METHODS

Social frailty was defined based on financial difficulty, household status, social activity, and contacts with other people: social frailty was defined as ≥2 points, social pre-frailty (1 point), and robustness (0 points). Survival status during ten years of follow-up was assessed using administrative data. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) of the association between social frailty status and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

At baseline, compared to social robust participants, social frail subjects reported a significant higher presence of potential risk factors for all-cause mortality. During the ten years of follow-up, after adjusting for 10 potential confounders, social frailty at baseline (vs. robustness) was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (HR = 1.31; 95 % CI: 1.04-1.64; p = 0.02), whilst social pre-frail was not. Among the single factors contributing to social frailty, poverty increased the risk of all-cause mortality by approximately 60 % (HR = 1.60; 95 % CI: 1.33-1.93; p < 0.0001) as well as living alone (HR = 1.46; 95 % CI: 1.10-1.94; p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Social frailty was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in a large cohort of older people, highlighting the importance of identifying this phenomenon in older adults to inform targeted intervention efforts.

Associations of face-to-face and non-face-to-face social isolation with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: 13-year follow-up of the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although social isolation has been associated with a higher mortality risk, little is known about the potential different impacts of face-to-face and non-face-to-face isolation on mortality. We examined the prospective associations of four types of social isolation, including face-to-face isolation with co-inhabitants and non-co-inhabitants, non-face-to-face isolation, and club/organization isolation, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality separately.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 30,430 adults in Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS), who were recruited during 2003-2008 and followed up till Dec 2019.

RESULTS

During an average of 13.2 years of follow-up, 4933 deaths occurred during 396,466 person-years. Participants who lived alone had higher risks of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.49) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (1.61; 1.20-2.03) mortality than those who had ≥ 3 co-habitant contact after adjustment for thirteen potential confounders. Compared with those who had ≥ 1 time/month non-co-inhabitant contact, those without such contact had higher risks of all-cause (1.60; 1.20-2.00) and CVD (1.91; 1.20-2.62) mortality. The corresponding AHR (95% CI) in participants without telephone/mail contact were 1.27 (1.14-1.42) for all-cause, 1.30 (1.08-1.56) for CVD, and 1.37 (1.12-1.67) for other-cause mortality. However, no association of club/organization contact with the above mortality and no association of all four types of isolation with cancer mortality were found.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort study, face-to-face and non-face-to-face isolation were both positively associated with all-cause, CVD-, and other-cause (but not cancer) mortality. Our finding suggests a need to promote non-face-to-face contact among middle-aged and older adults.

Differences in Life Expectancy Between Self-Employed Workers and Paid Employees when Retirement Pensioners: Evidence from Spanish Social Security Records

The aim of this paper is to examine differences in life expectancy (LE) between self-employed (SE) and paid employee (PE) workers when they become retirement pensioners, looking at levels of pension income using administrative data from Spanish social security records. We draw on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) to quantify changes in total life expectancy at age 65 (LE₆₅) among retired men over the longest possible period covered by this data source: 2005-2018. These changes are broken down by pension regime and initial pension income level for three periods. The literature presents mixed evidence, even for the same country-for Japan and Italy, for example-with some studies pointing to higher life expectancy for SE than for PE retirement pensioners while others argue the opposite. In Spain, LE₆₅ is slightly higher for the SE than for PE workers when retirement pensioners. For 2005-2010, a gap in life expectancy of 0.23 years between SE and PE retirement pensioners is observed. This widens to 0.55 years for 2014-2018. A similar trend can be seen if pension income groups are considered. For 2005-2010, the gap in LE₆₅ between pensioners in the lowest and highest income groups is 1.20 years. This widens over time and reaches 1.51 years for 2014-2018. Although these differences are relatively small, they are statistically significant. According to our research, the implications for policy on social security are evident: differences in life expectancy by socioeconomic status and pension regime should be taken into account for a variety of issues involving social security schemes. These include establishing the age of eligibility for retirement pensions and early access to benefits, computing the annuity factors used to determine initial retirement benefits and valuing the liabilities taken on for retirement pensioners.

Prediction of 11-year incidence of psychophysically dependent status or death among community-dwelling younger elderlies: from an age-specified community-based cohort study (the NISSIN project)

Background

Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex.

Methods

We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2000 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model.

Results

Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714–0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699–0.771).

Conclusions

We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12199-021-00968-8.

An integrative review of comprehensive nursing assessment tools developed based on Gordon's Eleven Functional Health Patterns

PURPOSE

To evaluate the content and psychometric properties of comprehensive nursing assessment tools developed based on The Eleven Functional Health Patterns Assessment Framework.

METHODS

An integrative literature review following Whittemore and Knafl's method and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Searches on PubMed, Cinahl, and Virtual Health Library were conducted between September and December 2018.

FINDINGS

Six out of 146 records were included for review. Four articles were methodological studies and two were descriptive reports of the development of the tools. Tools were heterogenous in terms of their purpose, development, characteristics, and testing. Only one study provided data about construct validity. However, there were commonalities regarding the data that should be assessed in each tool.

CONCLUSIONS

Few comprehensive nursing assessment tools using The Eleven Functional Health Patterns Assessment Framework are available. Purpose, process of development, characteristics, and testing varied among the tools, and most lack robust psychometric testing.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE

This review provided a synthesis of the literature regarding the use of a discipline-specific framework to guide comprehensive nursing assessment. The differences across the tools and the lack of psychometric testing compromise the visibility of nursing and make it difficult to emphasize the contribution of nursing knowledge to patient care.

Social relationships and survival in the older adult cohort

Objective:

to verify the influence of social relations on the survival of older adults living in southern Brazil.

Method:

a cohort study (2008 and 2016/17), conducted with 1,593 individuals aged 60 years old or over, in individual interviews. The outcomes of social relations and survival were verified by Multiple Correspondence Analysis, which guided the proposal of an explanatory matrix for social relations, the analysis of survival by Kaplan-Meier, and the multivariate analysis by Cox regression to verify the association between the independent variables.

Results:

follow-up was carried out with 82.5% (n=1,314), with 46.1% being followed up in 2016/17 (n=735) and 579 deaths (36.4%). The older adults who went out of their homes daily had a 39% reduction in mortality, and going to parties kept the protective effect of 17% for survival. The lower risk of death for women is modified when the older adults live in households with two or more people, in this case women have an 89% higher risk of death than men.

Conclusion:

strengthened social relationships play a mediating role in survival. The findings made it possible to verify the importance of going out of the house as a marker of protection for survival.

Denture wearing and mortality risk in edentulous American adults: A propensity score analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between complete denture use and subsequent mortality among edentulous adults.

METHODS

Data from 1649 edentulous adults who participated in the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey were linked to public-use mortality files for the period up to December 2015. Denture wearing, defined as use of complete dentures in both arches (clinically inspected) all the time or only when awake, was compared to non-wearing, defined as use of dentures occasionally or not at all. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Data on 27 covariates, classified as sociodemographic characteristics, behavioral factors, health insurance, laboratory tests and general health status, were used to create propensity scores for weighted and matched analyses.

RESULTS

In weighted data, the difference in mortality rate between denture and non-denture wearers was 11.1 (95 %CI: 3.6-18.6) deaths per 1000 person-years and the number needed to treat (NNT) at 10 years was 12. Denture wearers had 15 % lower risk of death (HR: 0.85; 95 % CI: 0.73-0.98) than non-denture wearers. In the matched sample, the mortality rate difference between denture and non-denture wearers was 8.8 (95 %CI: 0.2-17.4) deaths per 1000 person-years and the NNT at 10 years was 11. Risk of death was 21 % lower among denture wearers (HR: 0.79; 95 % CI: 0.68, 0.92) than non-denture wearers.

CONCLUSION

This longitudinal analysis showed that the use of complete dentures was associated with longer survival and lower all-cause mortality risk among American edentulous adults. NNT is interpreted as one death prevented after 10 years for every twelve rehabilitated dentitions with removable complete dentures.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Edentulous adults wearing complete dentures had longer survival and lower overall mortality risk than non-denture wearers, suggesting that prosthodontic rehabilitation with removable complete dentures might have benefits beyond restoring oral functioning.

Health status of workers approximately 60 years of age and the risk of early death after compulsory retirement: A cohort study

Objectives

The increasing number of working elderly people has enhanced the importance of workplace health promotion activities. We investigated the association between the health status of workers approximately 60 years of age and the risk of all‐cause mortality after compulsory retirement in Japan.

Methods

The 2026 participants (1299 males and 727 females) had retired from a metal‐products factory at ≥60 years of age. Baseline health examinations were conducted at 60 years of age and included questions about medical history and lifestyle factors; the participants also underwent a physical examination. The participants were followed up annually by mail for an average of 7.4 years. The association between health status at age 60 years and the risk of all‐cause mortality was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

Results

During the study, 71 deaths were reported. The age‐ and sex‐adjusted hazard ratio (HR [95% confidence interval]) for all‐cause mortality was higher for males (HR, 3.41 [1.73‐6.69]) compared with females, participants with a low body mass index (<18.5 kg/m²; HR 3.84 [1.91‐7.73]) compared with normal body weight, smokers (HR, 2.63 [1.51‐4.58]) compared with nonsmokers, and those with three or more of four metabolic abnormalities (obesity, high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance) (HR 2.29 [1.04‐5.02]) compared with no metabolic abnormalities. The associations were unaffected by adjustment for these factors.

Conclusion

Maintenance of an appropriate body weight, smoking cessation, and elimination of metabolic syndrome are required for older workers to prevent early death after retirement.

Socioeconomic and lifestyle factors associated with depressive tendencies in general Japanese men and women: NIPPON DATA2010

Background

The gender-specific characteristics of individuals at an increased risk of developing depression currently remain unclear despite a higher prevalence of depression in women than in men. This study clarified socioeconomic and lifestyle factors associated with an increased risk of subclinical depression in general Japanese men and women.

Methods

Study participants were residents not receiving psychiatric treatments in 300 sites throughout Japan in 2010 (1152 men, 1529 women). Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for socioeconomic factors and lifestyle factors were calculated using a logistic regression analysis.

Results

Risk of depressive tendencies was significantly higher in men who were single and living alone (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.56–6.88) than those married. The risk was significantly lower in women who were not working and aged ≥ 60 years (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22–0.68) and higher in men who were not working and aged < 60 years (OR, 3.57; 95%CI, 1.31–9.72) compared with those who were working. Current smoking was also associated with a significantly increased risk of depressive tendencies in women (OR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.68–5.22) but not in men.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic and lifestyle factors were associated with an increased risk of depressive tendencies in general Japanese. Related factors were different by sex.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12199-019-0788-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.