What influence farmers' relative poverty in China: A global analysis based on statistical and interpretable machine learning methods

Poverty eradication has always been a major challenge to global development and governance, which received widespread attention from each country. With the completion poverty alleviation task in 2020, relative poverty governance becomes an important issue to be solved in China urgently. Because of a large population, poor infrastructures, insufficient resources, and long-term uneven development raising the living standard of farmers in rural areas is critical to China's success in realizing moderate prosperity. Therefore, identifying the poor farmers, exploring the influence factors to relative poverty, and clarifying its effect mechanism in rural areas are significant for the subsequent poverty governance. Most of the previous studies adopted the method of apriori assuming the factor system and verifying the hypothesis. We innovatively constructed a relative poverty index system consistent with China's actual conditions, selecting all the possible variables that could affect relative poverty based on the existing literature, including individual characteristics, psychological endowment, and geographical environment, and rebuilt an experimental database. Then, through data processing and data analysis, the main factors influencing the relative poverty of farmers were systematically sorted out based on the machine learning method. Finally, 25 chosen influencing factors were discussed in detail. Research findings show that: 1) Machine learning algorithm is proved it could be well applied in relative poverty fields, especially XGBoost, which achieves 81.9% accuracy and the score of ROC_AUC reaches 0.819. 2) This study sheds light on many new research directions in applying machine learning for relative poverty research, besides, the paper offers an integral framework and beneficial reference for target identification using machine learning algorithms. 3) In addition, by utilizing the interpretable tools, the "black-box" of ML become transparent through PDP and SHAP explanation, it also reveals that machine learning models can readily handle the non-linear association relationship.

Heterogeneity and threshold in the effect of agricultural machinery on farmers' relative poverty

Machinery is commonly used in the modernization of agricultural industries and is a pivotal way to eliminate poverty among farmers. However, there are still disputes regarding the effects of agricultural machinery on farmers' relative poverty. Neither the heterogeneity nor the thresholds in agricultural machinery-led poverty reduction efforts have been discussed in depth. To address those gaps, this study considers farmers' livelihood factors and resource (in)divisibility to investigate how agricultural machinery affects farmers' relative poverty as well as the heterogeneity of and thresholds in that influence. This study collected data from 1118 Chinese farming households. 2SLS-IVTobit regression results show that a 1% increase in the overall level of agricultural machinery leads to a 3.3% increase in farmers' income and a 0.523% decrease in their relative poverty. Furthermore, the three pathways of cost-saving, production efficiency, and labor allocation efficiency are identified as explaining 25.4%, 21.9%, and 21.3% of relative poverty reduction, respectively. The heterogeneity of these effects across different farming stages (i.e., plowing, sowing, and harvesting) is also examined, and the results show that plowing machinery has the largest effect. Then, a threshold analysis is conducted, which shows that farmers are influenced more when the scale of their farms surpasses the threshold of 1.12 hm². Theoretically, this study establishes an integrated model that depicts how agricultural machinery affects farmers' relative poverty through production (in)divisibility. Practically, this study recommends additional investment in agricultural machinery (especially plowing machinery), farmland integration, and taking targeted measures to facilitate resource divisibility.

Could ecological restoration reduce income inequality? An analysis of 290 Chinese prefecture-level cities

Ecosystem degradation and the serious wealth gap caused by rapid economic development have become problems that cannot be neglected during the progress of pursuing sustainable development and reducing income inequality in China. To determine whether ecological restoration such as vegetation cover could affect the income gap, we used data for 290 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2018 and analyzed the effect of ecological restoration on income inequality in China. In addition, we chose the year 2012 as a boundary and performed heterogeneity analysis to permit a detailed comparison of the variation in the effect over time. We found that ecological restoration can reduce income inequality in general, but this effect was not statistically significant until 2012. However, due to some practical obstacles (e.g., employment opportunities, educational attainment, social discrimination), reducing income inequality through ecological restoration will be a time consuming process and requires constant effort from the Chinese government and local managers such as funding green industries, providing more targeted technical training for the poor and social services for the rural migrant workers.

Measurement and identification of relative poverty level of pastoral areas: an analysis based on spatial layout

Pastoral areas are the key difficulty in China's pursuit of common prosperity and a key region for China to build the northern ecological safety barrier and to realize the Two Centenary Goals. It is of great significance to scientifically evaluate the quality of rural life (QRL), measure the relative poverty level (RPL), and identify the relatively poor areas, making it possible to dock poverty elimination with rural revitalization. Based on the socio-economic data of 18 pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia, this paper draws on spatial layout theory to evaluate QRL and measures RPL by the natural breakpoint method and then identifies the relatively poor areas in Inner Mongolia. The results show that (1) the QRLs of pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia were unbalanced and highly polarized. The mean score of QRLs was 0.2598. Eleven (61.11%) of the counties/banners had a QRL smaller than the mean score. On the spatial layout of QRLs, the western areas were stronger than the central areas. High QRL counties/banners are mainly concentrated in the western region. In the central region, the QRLs were very fragmented, falling onto all five levels. (2) The pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia differed significantly in RPL. The mean score of RPL stood at 0.3788. Nine counties/banners (50%) had an RPL greater than the mean. Contrary to the spatial layout features of QRLs, the central pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia had stronger RPLs than the eastern ones. High RPL counties/banners are mostly clustered in the central region. The spatial layout of RPLs is relatively reasonable in the central region: the RPLs decreased gradually from Dorbod Banner. (3) Nearly 45% of the pastoral areas in central and western Inner Mongolia face serious relative poverty and a high risk of returning to poverty. Eight counties/banners (45%) were identified as high composite relative poverty areas. From spatial layout, the composite relatively poor counties/banners clustered clearly, mainly in the western region. Finally, this paper establishes a warning mechanism against large-scale returning to poverty, aiming to lower composite RPL. The research results provide empirical reference and implementation path for consolidating the results of poverty eradication and facilitating rural revitalization.

Associations between childhood maltreatment and educational, health and economic outcomes among middle-aged Chinese: The moderating role of relative poverty

BACKGROUND

Despite substantial evidence in developed countries showing that child maltreatment can lead to serious life-long consequences, relatively few studies so far have examined the associations between childhood maltreatment and adulthood outcomes in developing countries, such as China. It also remains unclear as to the impact of relative poverty on the long-term development of maltreated children.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the associations between childhood maltreatment and educational, health, and economic outcomes among middle-aged Chinese, as well as explore the moderating effects of relative poverty.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

The participants of this study were the middle-aged respondents (aged 45 to 59) in the 2011, 2013, and 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Studies (CHARLS) and the CHARLS Life History Survey (N = 24,114).

METHODS

Physical abuse and emotional neglect were measured to investigate childhood maltreatment. Subjective and objective indicators were used to examine relative poverty. A broad range of midlife outcomes were explored, including educational attainment, physical health, mental health, cognitive functions, labor force participation, wage expenditure, and financial strain. Data analyses were conducted using fixed effects model for panel data and a propensity score matching approach.

RESULTS

Childhood physical abuse and emotional neglect were both significantly associated with lower levels of midlife educational attainment, cognitive functions, individual wages, and household expenditures, as well as higher rates of chronic diseases, depressive symptoms, poverty, and welfare involvement. Childhood physical abuse also predicted higher risks of difficulty performing the activities of daily living (ADL), unemployment, and fewer work hours. Early-life exposure to relative poverty was linked to a greater likelihood of childhood maltreatment and mid-life adversities. It further aggravated the negative impacts of childhood maltreatment on middle-age outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Child maltreatment had a profound effect on long-term child development and midlife outcomes in Chinese contexts. Relative poverty in early life was a moderator that exacerbated the outcomes associated with childhood maltreatment.

Cumulative Effects of Poverty on Children's Social-Emotional Development: Absolute Poverty and Relative Poverty

This study examines the cumulative effects of poverty on children's socio-emotional outcomes from ages 5 to 12, using U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data (N = 6941). Two definitions of poverty were used: absolute poverty as defined by the federal poverty threshold, and relative poverty defined as income less than 50 percent of median household income. (1) Does cumulative poverty, measured in absolute and relative terms, have any impact on children's socio-emotional outcomes? (2) Does this association increase/decrease as children become older? Relative poverty had a stronger adverse effect on children's social-emotional development than absolute poverty, and the adverse effect of relative poverty was bigger when children were older. Child and maternal characteristics affected children's socio-emotional development. The income threshold for absolute poverty is lower than that for relative poverty; using a relative poverty threshold might better identify individuals with limited resources that are at risk of having adverse socio-emotional outcomes.

Agricultural factor endowment differences and relative poverty nexus: an analysis of macroeconomic and social determinants

Poverty is a significant global ongoing issue that influences a substantial amount of people despite all efforts to eliminate or lessen it. Although poverty is an eminent problem because of its negative consequences, many people are unaware of the concept of poverty. Poverty not only degrades the human capacity but also undermines economic growth in developing regions. This research aims at exploring the impact and heterogeneity of agricultural factor endowment investment on rural relative poverty. By using the data obtained from China household tracking survey (CFPS-2018), probit model approach was applied to analyze the relationship between agricultural factor endowment investment and rural relative poverty. Finally, the intermediary effect of the selected model was validated through the robustness test. The study findings showed that the input of agricultural factor endowment can alleviate the relative poverty in rural areas of China. Our study findings also revealed that there is a significant heterogeneity in family size, endowment type of agricultural technology elements and the agricultural type. A positive association between the investment in agricultural technology and land factor endowment with relative poverty alleviation by increasing the total value of cash and deposits was revealed from the results. The overall findings of this study provide useful insights to facilitate government institutions to stabilize the agricultural labor force, accelerate the process of agricultural modernization and provide careful consideration to land property rights.

Medical service utilization and out-of-pocket spending among near-poor National Health Insurance members in South Korea

Background

The public health care system in South Korea is a two-tiered system. The lowest-income population is covered by the Medical Aid program, and the remaining population is covered by the National Health Insurance. The near poor, a relatively low-income population which is excluded from South Korea’s Medical Aid program due to exceeding the income threshold, experiences insufficient use of medical services and incurs high out-of-pocket expenses due to a lack of coverage under the country’s National Health Insurance (NHI) program. This study aims to examine medical utilization, out-of-pocket spending, and the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditures among the near-poor group compared to both Medical Aid beneficiaries and other (higher income) NHI members.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted drawing upon a nationally representative dataset derived from the 2018 Korea Welfare Panel Study. The study classified people into three groups: Medical Aid beneficiaries; the near-poor population below 50 % of the median income threshold but still not qualifying for Medical Aid and thus enrolled in NHI; and NHI members above the threshold of 50 % of the median income. Using a generalized boosted model to estimate the propensity score weights between study groups, this study examined medical utilization, out-of-pocket spending, and the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditure among the study groups.

Results

The findings suggest that the utilization of medical services was not significantly different among the study groups. However, out-of-pocket spending and the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditure were significantly higher in the near-poor group compared to the other two groups.

Conclusions

The study found that the near-poor group was the most vulnerable among the Korean population because of their higher chance of incurring greater out-of-pocket spending and catastrophic health expenditures than is the case among the Medical Aid beneficiary and above-poverty line groups. Health policy needs to take the vulnerability of this near-poor population into account.

The double burden of poverty and marital loss on the mental health of older Australian women; a longitudinal regression analysis using 17 annual waves of the HILDA cohort

PURPOSE

Compared to men, older women have poorer mental health and are more vulnerable to poverty, especially when living alone. However, few studies have examined how gender, marital status and poverty are inter-related and are associated with mental health. This study examines the gendered associations between relative poverty, marital status and mental health in older Australians.

METHODS

Drawing on 17 waves of the HILDA Survey, fixed-effects longitudinal regression analysis was utilised to examine the association between: (1) relative poverty (< 50% median household income) and mental health (MHI-5); (2) marital status and poverty, in a cohort of Australians aged 65 + years. We then examined effect modification of the association between relative poverty and mental health by marital status.

RESULTS

Within-person associations, stratified by gender, showed that women in relative poverty reported poorer mental health than when not in relative poverty, however no association was observed for men. Being divorced/separated was associated with increased odds of relative poverty for women, but not men. Widowhood was strongly associated with relative poverty in women, and also among men, albeit a smaller estimate was observed for men. There was no evidence of effect modification of the relationship between relative poverty and mental health by marital status for either men or women.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that relative poverty is a major determinant of mental health in older Australian women. Addressing gender inequities in lifetime savings, as well as in division of acquired wealth post marital loss, may help reduce these disparities.

Relationship of relative poverty and social relationship on mortality around retirement: a 10-year follow-up of the Komo-Ise cohort

Background

As society is aging, retirement takes on increasing importance for individuals in the later life. This study aimed to describe mortality before and after retirement in the Japanese middle-aged/elderly with special attention to socioeconomic position and social relationships.

Methods

We conducted a 10-year follow-up study (the Komo-Ise cohort study) and assessed mortality according to socioeconomic positions (relative poverty and occupation) and social relationships (e.g., marital status, living alone, and social support) in workers and the retired. Relative poverty was defined as a household equivalent income of 12,700 US dollars (1.37 million Japanese Yen) or less in 2000. Stratified analyses were conducted according to sex in two groups of employment status: the workers and the retired. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

We included 5534 individuals. Of these, 3360 were men (working, 2499; retired, 861) and 2174 were women (working, 1306; retired, 868). We observed 610 deaths (475 in men and 135 in women) during the study period. Relative poverty was a significant risk factor for death (HR 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07–2.14) among retired men but not among working men (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.79–1.83). Among workers, self-employed men showed a significantly higher hazard of death (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.09–2.25) than white-collar employees. Retired men who lacked participation in social activities were more likely to die than those who did not (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.06–1.94). All results, except marital status, indicated non-significant associations in women.

Conclusions

Relative poverty and lack of social engagement may be related to high mortality risk in retired men. Further studies are needed to assess the health status among the middle-aged/elderly population around retirement.