Validation of a novel prediction model for early mortality in adult trauma patients in three public university hospitals in urban India

Development and validation of risk prediction model for adverse outcomes in trauma patients

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of trauma patients is highly dependent on early medical diagnosis. By constructing a nomogram model, the risk of adverse outcomes can be displayed intuitively and individually, which has important clinical implications for medical diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate models for predicting patients with adverse outcomes of trauma that can be used in different data availability settings in China.

METHODS

This was a retrospective prognostic study using data from 8 public tertiary hospitals in China from 2018. The data were randomly divided into a development set and a validation set. Simple, improved and extended models predicting adverse outcomes were developed, with adverse outcomes defined as in-hospital death or ICU transfer, and patient clinical characteristics, vital signs, diagnoses, and laboratory test values as predictors. The results of the models were presented in the form of nomograms, and performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), precision-recall (PR) curves (PR-AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Our final dataset consisted of 18,629 patients (40.2% female, mean age of 52.3), 1,089 (5.85%) of whom resulted in adverse outcomes. In the external validation set, three models achieved ROC-AUC of 0.872, 0.881, and 0.903, and a PR-AUC of 0.339, 0.337, and 0.403, respectively. In terms of the calibration curves and DCA, the models also performed well.

CONCLUSIONS

This prognostic study found that three prediction models and nomograms including the patient clinical characteristics, vital signs, diagnoses, and laboratory test values can support clinicians in more accurately identifying patients who are at risk of adverse outcomes in different settings based on data availability.

Association between triage level and outcomes at Médecins Sans Frontières trauma hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, 2015

Background

Five million people die annually due to injuries; an increasing part is due to armed conflict in low-income and middle-income countries, demanding resolute emergency trauma care. In Afghanistan, a low-income country that has experienced conflict for over 35 years, conflict related trauma is a significant public health problem. To address this, the non-governmental organisation Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) set up a trauma centre in Kunduz (Kunduz Trauma Centre (KTC)). MSF’s standardised emergency operating procedures include the South African Triage Scale (SATS). To date, there are few studies that assess how triage levels correspond with outcome in low-resource conflict settings

Aim

This study aims to assess to what extent SATS triage levels correlated to outcomes in terms of hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality for patients treated at KTC.

Method and materials

This retrospective study used routinely collected data from KTC registries. A total of 17 970 patients were included. The outcomes were hospital admission, ICU admission and mortality. The explanatory variable was triage level. Covariates including age, gender and delay to arrival were used. Logistic regression was used to study the correlation between triage level and outcomes.

Results

Out of all patients seeking care, 28.7% were triaged as red or orange. The overall mortality was 0.6%. In total, 90% of those that died and 79% of ICU-admitted patients were triaged as red.

Conclusion

The risk of positive and negative outcomes correlated with triage level. None of the patients triaged as green died or were admitted to the ICU whereas 90% of patients who died were triaged as red.

Participants' perception of the AIIMS Trauma Assessment and Management (ATAM) course for management of polytrauma: A multi-institutional experience from India

BACKGROUND

In India, the mortality due to polytrauma after road traffic injuries is high and there is a need to train medical and paramedical personnel. The AIIMS Trauma Assessment and Management (ATAM) course was developed at the Apex Trauma Centre of All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi to sensitize medical personnel with initial assessment and management of polytrauma victims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact on knowledge and skills and also evaluate the feedback and the perception of the participants of the ATAM course.

METHODS

The course was conducted for doctors, nurses and other paramedical/allied professionals in five tertiary level centres associated to medical colleges from geographically diverse locations (Anand, Bengaluru, Delhi, Lucknow and Thrissur). Cognitive knowledge was assessed using pre-training and post-training multiple choice question (MCQ) tests. The participants also self-rated their level of knowledge, skill, confidence and capability (Numerical rating scale of 1-10). Post-training feedback was obtained from the participants using a five-point Likert scale response.

RESULTS

26 ATAM courses were conducted by 68 course instructors and attended by 780 participants. These participants include 40.4% doctors, 44.2% nurses, 4.7% paramedical technicians, 4.2% medical students and 6.4% paramedical and allied health professionals. There was significant improvement (p < 0.0001) in the cognitive knowledge, skill, confidence and capability of the participants. 85%-86% of the participants strongly agreed or agreed that the course content was effective and 85% of participants perceived that the course was excellent or very good.

CONCLUSION

The ATAM course had a positive impact on the knowledge, skills, confidence and capability of health caregivers attending the course. The ATAM course is an effective, practical and favourable option that is tailored to the polytrauma training needs of India. We recommend widespread dissemination of this course.

WITHDRAWN: Participants' perception of the AIIMS Trauma Assessment and Management (ATAM) course for management of polytrauma due to road traffic injuries: A multi-institutional experience from India

OBJECTIVE

In India, the mortality due to polytrauma after road traffic injuries is high and there is a need to train medical and paramedical personnel. The AIIMS Trauma Assessment and Management (ATAM) course was developed at the Apex Trauma Centre of All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi to sensitize medical personnel with initial assessment and management of polytrauma victims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact on knowledge and skills and also evaluate the feedback and the perception of the participants of the ATAM course.

METHODS

The course was conducted for doctors, nurses and other paramedical/allied professionals in five tertiary level centres associated to medical colleges from geographically diverse locations (Anand, Bengaluru, Delhi, Lucknow and Thrissur). Cognitive knowledge was assessed using pre-training and post-training multiple choice question (MCQ) tests. The participants also self-rated their level of knowledge, skill, confidence and capability (Numerical rating scale of 1-10). Post-training feedback was obtained from the participants using a five-point Likert scale response.

RESULTS

26 ATAM courses were conducted by 68 course instructors and attended by 780 participants. These participants include 40.4% doctors, 44.2% nurses, 4.7% paramedical technicians, 4.2% medical students and 6.4% paramedical and allied health professionals. There was significant improvement (p < 0.0001) in the cognitive knowledge, skill, confidence and capability of the participants. 85%-86% of the participants strongly agreed or agreed that the course content was effective and 85% of participants perceived that the course was excellent or very good.

CONCLUSION

The ATAM course had a positive impact on the knowledge, skills, confidence and capability of health caregivers attending the course. The ATAM course is an effective, practical and favourable option that is tailored to the polytrauma training needs of India. We recommend widespread dissemination of this course.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Mumbai: A Survey of Providers along the Care Continuum

INTRODUCTION

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a significant burden of a global disease, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as India. Efforts to curb the impact of TBI require an appreciation of local factors related to this disease and its treatment.

METHODS

Semi-structured qualitative interviews were administered to paramedics, anesthesiologists, general surgeons, and neurosurgeons in locations throughout Mumbai from April to May 2018. A thematic analysis with an iterative coding was used to analyze the data. The primary objective was to identify provider-perceived themes related to TBI care in Mumbai.

RESULTS

A total of 50 participants were interviewed, including 17 paramedics, 15 anesthesiologists, 9 general surgeons, and 9 neurosurgeons who were involved in caring for TBI patients. The majority of physicians interviewed discussed their experiences in public sector hospitals (82%), while 12% discussed private sector hospitals and 6% discussed both. Four major themes emerged: Workforce, equipment, financing care, and the family and public role. These themes were often discussed in the context of their effects on increasing or decreasing complications and delays. Participants developed adaptations when managing shortcomings in these thematic areas. These adaptations included teamwork during workforce shortages and resource allocation when equipment was limited among others.

CONCLUSIONS

Workforce, equipment, financing care, and the family and public role were identified as major themes in the care for TBI in Mumbai. These thematic elements provide a framework to evaluate and improve care along the care spectrum for TBI. Similar frameworks should be adapted to local contexts in urbanizing cities in LMICs.

Third delay in traumatic brain injury: time to management as a predictor of mortality

OBJECTIVE

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global epidemic with an increasing incidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The time from arrival at the hospital to receiving appropriate treatment ("third delay") can vary widely in LMICs, although its association with mortality in TBI remains unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis with multivariable logistic regression was conducted using the Toward Improved Trauma Care Outcomes in India database, which contains data from 4 urban trauma centers in India from 2013-2015.

RESULTS

There were 6278 TBIs included in the cohort. The patients' median age was 39 years (interquartile range 27-52 years) and 80% of patients were male. The most frequent mechanisms of injury were road traffic accidents (52%) and falls (34%). A majority of cases were transfers from other facilities (79%). In-hospital 30-day mortality was 27%; of patients who died, 21% died within 24 hours of arrival. The median third delay was 10 minutes (interquartile range 0-60 minutes); 34% of cases had moderate third delay (10-60 minutes) and 22% had extended third delay (≥ 61 minutes). Overall 30-day mortality was associated with moderate third delay (OR 1.3, p = 0.001) and extended third delay (OR 1.3, p = 0.001) after adjustment by pertinent covariates. This effect was pronounced for 24-hour mortality: moderate and extended third delays were independently associated with ORs of 3.4 and 3.8, respectively, for 24-hour mortality (both p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Third delay is associated with early mortality in patients with TBI, and represents a target for process improvement in urban trauma centers.

Both the multiplicative and single-worst-injury International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score underperform in urban Indian hospitals

Introduction

Trauma accounts for 9% of all deaths worldwide, killing almost five million people annually. As India accounts for more than one million of these deaths, research on local trauma care is of great importance. A key aspect of such research is outcome comparisons between contexts. One tool to adjust these comparisons for trauma severity is the International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score. The aim was to assess two versions of this score in India.

Methods

The data used were from the project Towards Improved Trauma Care Outcomes in India. Published survival risk ratios were used to calculate multiplicative-International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score and single-worst-injury-International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score for the 200 most recent non-surviving patients and the surviving patients during the same period. Score performance was measured in discrimination and calibration.

Results

The 30-day prediction single-worst-injury-International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score discriminated best with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.668 (95% CI 0.645–0.690) and a calibration slope of 0.830 (95% CI 0.708–0.940).

Conclusions

The single-worst-injury-International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score applied on 30-day mortality was the only score to calibrate on a satisfactory level. None of the scores had an acceptable discrimination. In interpreting these findings, we see that none of the tested scores can currently be implemented in the studied hospitals.

Development and validation of a new simplified anatomic trauma mortality score

BACKGROUND

Most trauma mortality prediction scores are complex in nature. GAP (Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, Systolic blood pressure) and mGAP (mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, Systolic blood pressure) scores are relatively simple scoring tools. However, these scores were not validated in low and middle income countries including Malaysia and its accuracies are influenced by the fluctuating physiologic parameters. This study aims to develop a relevant simplified anatomic trauma scoring system for the local trauma patients in Malaysia.

METHOD

A total of 3825 trauma patients from 2011 to 2016 were extracted from the Hospital Sultanah Aminah Trauma Surgery Registry. Patients were split into a development sample (n = 2683) and a validation sample (n = 1142). Univariate analysis is applied to identify significant anatomic predictors. These predictors were further analyzed using multivariable logistic regression to develop the new score and compared to existing score systems. The quality of prediction was determined regarding discrimination using sensitivity, specificity and receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve.

RESULTS

Existing simplified score systems (GAP & mGAP) revealed areas under the ROC curve of 0.825 and 0.806. The newly developed HeCLLiP (Head, cervical spine, lung, liver, pelvic fracture) score combines only five anatomic components: injury involving head, cervical spine, lung, liver and pelvic bone. The probabilities of mortality can be estimated by charting the total score points onto a graph chart or using the cut-off value of (>2) with a sensitivity of 79.2 and specificity of 70.6% on the validation dataset. The HeCLLiP score achieved comparable values of 0.802 for the area under the ROC curve in validation samples.

CONCLUSION

HeCLLiP Score is a simplified anatomic score suited to the local Malaysian population with a good predictive ability for trauma mortality.

Trauma mechanism predicts the frequency and the severity of injuries in blunt trauma patients

OBJECTIVE

to study the correlation of trauma mechanism with frequency and severity of injuries in blunt trauma patients.

METHODS

retrospective analysis of trauma registry in a 15-month period was carried out. Trauma mechanism was classified into six types: occupants of four-wheeled vehicles involved in road traffic accidents (AUTO), pedestrians struck by road vehicles (PED), motorcyclists involved in road traffic accidents (MOTO), falls from height (FALL), physical assault with blunt instruments (ASSA) and falls on same level (FSL). Injuries with AIS>2 were considered severe. One-way ANOVA, Students t and Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis, considering p<0.05 significant.

RESULTS

trauma mechanism was classified by group for 3639 cases, comprising 337 (9.3%) AUTO, 855 (23.5%) PED, 924 (25.4%) MOTO, 455 (12.5%) FALL, 424 (11.7%) ASSA and 644 (17.7%) FSL. There was significant difference among groups when comparing the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), the Injury Severity Score (ISS) and the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) of the head, thorax, abdomen and extremities (p<0.001). Severe injuries in the head and in the extremities were more frequent in PED patients (p<0.001). Severe injuries to the chest were more frequent in AUTO (p<0.001). Abdominal injuries were less frequent in FSL (p=0.004). Complex fractures of the pelvis and spine were more frequent in FALL (p<0.001). Lethality was greater in PED, followed by FALL and AUTO (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

trauma mechanism analysis predicted frequency and severity of injuries in blunt trauma patients.

Prevalence of a definitive airway in patients with severe traumatic brain injury received at four urban public university hospitals in India: a cohort study

AIM

To estimate the proportion of patients arriving with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) less than 9 who had a definitive airway placed prior to arrival.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the data from a multicentre, prospective observational research project entitled Towards Improved Trauma Care Outcomes in India. Adults aged ≥18 years with an isolated traumatic brain injury (TBI) who were transferred from another hospital to the emergency department of the participating hospital with a GCS less than 9 were included. Our outcome was a definitive airway, defined as either intubation or surgical airway, placed prior to arrival at a participating centre.

RESULTS

The total number of patients eligible for this study was 1499. The median age was 40 years and 84% were male. Road traffic injuries and falls comprised 88% of the causes of isolated TBI. The number of patients with GCS<9 who had a definitive airway placed before reaching the participating centres was 229. Thus, the proportion was 0.15 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.17). The proportions of patients with a definitive airway who arrived after 24 hours (19%) were approximately double the proportion of patients who arrived within 6 hours (10%) after injury to the definitive care centre.

CONCLUSION

The rates of definitive airway placement are poor in adults with an isolated TBI who have been transferred from another health facility to tertiary care centres in India.

Mortality following surgery for trauma in an Indian trauma cohort

Background

India accounts for 20 per cent of worldwide trauma mortality. Little is known about the quality of trauma surgery in an Indian setting. The aim of this study was to estimate the overall perioperative mortality rate, and to assess the association between type of acute surgical intervention and perioperative mortality among adult patients treated for trauma in an urban Indian setting.

Methods

Data were obtained from injured adult patients enrolled in four urban Indian hospitals during 2013–2015. Those who had surgery within 24 h of arrival at hospital were included in the analysis. Patients with missing data were excluded. The perioperative mortality rate was measured at 48 h and 30 days after arrival at hospital. Generalized linear mixed models were used for risk adjustment of procedure-specific mortality.

Results

Among 2986 patients who underwent trauma surgery, the overall 48-h mortality rate was 6·0 per cent, and the 30-day mortality rate was 23·1 per cent. The highest adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for 48-h mortality were found for patients who underwent surgery on the peripheral vasculature (OR 4·71, 95 per cent c.i. 1·18 to 16·59; P = 0·030) and the digestive system and spleen (OR 3·77, 1·33 to 9·01; P = 0·010) compared with those who had nervous system surgery.

Conclusion

In this study of surgery in an Indian trauma cohort, there was an excess of late perioperative deaths. Mortality differed significantly according to the type of surgery being undertaken.

Vital sign based shock scores are poor at triaging South African trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Traumatic shock cannot be diagnosed by a single physiological measurement and a number of vital sign based combined shock scores (CSS) have been proposed to identify and triage trauma patients with shock. This audit uses data from a prospectively entered electronic trauma registry to compare the ability of these CSS to predict in-hospital mortality, need for surgery, need for blood transfusion and ICU admission.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data used in the study was obtained from the Hybrid Electronic Medical Record (HEMR) in Pietermaritzburg from January 2012-September 2015. The calculated scores (Systolic Blood Pressure [SBP], Mean Arterial Pressure [MAP], Shock Index [SI], Modified Shock Index [MSI] and Shock Index multiplied by Age [SIA]) were plotted against each outcome parameter and the inflection points at which they started to increase, for each parameter, was determined and compared.

RESULTS

A total of 8793 patients met the inclusion criteria. After the datasets with missing data were removed, a total of 7623 patients were available for analyses. There was a slightly higher incidence of blunt trauma (46%) compared to penetrating trauma (43%). Area under the Receiver Operating Curves (AUROC) for prediction of mortality revealed the MSI and SIA performed best, with values of 0.69 and 0.70, respectively. In both the 'need for ICU' prediction as well as the 'need for blood transfusion' prediction, MSI performed best with scores of 0.73 and 0.79, respectively. None of the parameters performed well in the 'need for surgery' prediction. None of the CSS parameters reached a 'good predictor capability' score of 0.8.

CONCLUSION

The currently available vital sign based scores (SBP, MAP, SI, MSI, SIA) used in the prediction of shock severity and triage are not good predictors of mortality, need for ICU, need for theatre or need for blood transfusion in our population where half the trauma is penetrating and there are long pre-hospital delays. Our data suggests that none of the proposed CSS's are capable of reliably and accurately identifying and categorizing shock states in South African trauma patients.

Prognostic predictors of early mortality from exsanguination in adult trauma: a Malaysian trauma center experience

Background

Trauma mortality due to exsanguination is the second most common cause of death. The objective of this study is to investigate the predictors for early death from exsanguination.

Methods

A prognostic study was done to identify predictors of early mortality due to exsanguination. Data were extracted from our Trauma Surgery Registry database of Sultanah Aminah Hospital, Johor Bahru, Malaysia. All patients who were treated from May 1, 2011 to April 31, 2014 by the trauma team were included. Adult trauma patients included from the Trauma Surgery Registry were divided into two groups for analysis: early death from exsanguination and death from non-exsanguination/survivors. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to look for significant predictors of death from exsanguination. Variables analyzed were demography, mechanism of injury, organ injury scale, physiological parameters (systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), New Injury Severity Score (NISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) and cause of death.

Results

A total of 2208 patients with an average age of 36 (±16) years were included. Blunt trauma was the majority with 90.5%, followed by penetrating injuries (9.2%). The overall mortality is 239 out of 2208 (10.8%). Seventy-eight patients (32.6%) died due to central nervous system injury, 69 due to sepsis (28.9%) and 58 due to exsanguination (24.3%). After multivariate analysis, age (OR 1.026 (1.009 to 1.044), p=0.002), SBP (OR 0.985 (0.975 to 0.995), p=0.003) and temperature (OR 0.203 (0.076 to 0.543), p=0.001) were found to be the significant physiological parameters. Intra-abdominal injury and NISS were significant anatomic mortality predictors from exsanguination (p<0.001). Patients with intra-abdominal injury had four times higher risk of mortality from exsanguination (OR 3.948 (2.331 to 6.686), p<0.001).

Discussion

In a Malaysian trauma center, age, SBP, core body temperature, intra-abdominal injury and NISS were significant predictors of early death from exsanguination.

Level of evidence

II.