Predictors of mortality and validation of burn mortality prognostic scores in a Malaysian burns intensive care unit

A comparative study of the predictive value of four models for death in patients with severe burns

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic value of the Ryan score, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) score,revised Baux (rBaux) score, and a new model (a Logit(P)-based scoring method created in 2020) for predicting mortality risk in patients with extremely severe burns and to conduct a comparative analysis.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 599 burn patients who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the burn unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2017 to 2022. Relevant information was collected, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were plotted for each of the four models in assessing mortality in these burn patients using both age-stratified and unstratified forms. The ROC curve section was further compared with the area under the curve (AUC), optimal cutoff value, as well as its sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, the quality of the AUC was assessed using the Delong test.

RESULT

Among the patients who met the inclusion criteria, 532 were in the survival group and 67 in the death group. Irrespective of age stratification, the novel model exhibited superior performance with an AUC of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.838-0.894) among all four models predicting mortality risk in included patients, and also demonstrated better AUC quality than other models; the calibration curves showed that the accuracy of all four models was good; the DCA curves showed that the clinical utility of the novel model and rBuax score were better. In the comparison of four scoring models across different age groups, the new model demonstrated the largest AUC in both 0-19 years (0.954, 95% CI 0.914-0.979) and 20-59 years groups (0.838, 95% CI 0.793-0.877), while rBuax score exhibited the highest AUC in ≥ 60 years group (0.708, 95% CI of 0.602-0.800). The calibration curves showed that the four models exhibited greater accuracy within the age range of 20-59 years, while the DCA curves indicated that both the novel model and rBuax score scale displayed better prediction in both the 20-59 and ≥ 60 years groups.

CONCLUSIONS

All four models demonstrate accurate and effective prognostication for patients with severe burns. Both the novel model and rBaux score exhibit enhanced prediction utility. In terms of the model itself alone, the new model is not simpler than, for example, the rBaux score, and whether it can be applied clinicallyinvolves further study.

Estimating mortality risk in burn patients admitted at Rwanda's largest referral hospital

BACKGROUND

Burns is a disease of poverty, disproportionately affecting populations in low- and middle-income countries, where most of the injuries and the deaths caused by burns occurs. In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is estimated that one fifth of burn victims die from their injuries. Mortality prediction indexes are used to estimate outcomes after provided burn care, which has been used in burn services of high-income countries over the last 60 years. It remains to be seen whether these are reliable in low-income settings. This study aimed to analyze in-hospital mortality and to apply mortality estimation indexes in burn patients admitted to the only specialized burn unit in Rwanda.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all patients with burns admitted at the burn unit (BU) of the University Teaching Hospital in Kigali (CHUK) between 2005 and 2019. Patient data were collected from the BU logbook. Descriptive statistics were calculated with frequency (%) and median (interquartile range, IQR). Association between burns characteristics and in-hospital mortality was calculated with Fisher's exact test, and Wilcoxon rank, as appropriate. Mortality estimation analysis, including Baux score, Lethal Area 50 (LA50), and point of futility, was calculated in those patients with complete data on age and TBSA. LA50 and point-of-futility were calculated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among the 1093 burn patients admitted at the CHUK burn unit during the study period, 49% (n=532) had complete data on age and TBSA. Their median age, TBSA, and Baux score were 3.4 years (IQR 1.9-17.1), 15% (IQR 11-25), and 24 (IQR 16-38), respectively. Overall, reported in-hospital mortality was 13% (n=121/931), LA50 for Baux score was 89.9 (95% CI 76.2-103.7), and the point-of-futility was at a Baux score of 104.

CONCLUSION

Mortality estimation indexes based on age and TBSA are feasible to use in low-income settings. However, implementation of systematic data collection would contribute to a more accurate calculation of the mortality risk.

Better among the two for Burn Mortality Prediction in Developing Nations: Revised Baux or Modified Abbreviated Burn Severity Index?

Background

Burns is one of the leading causes of mortality in developing countries like India. Most of the major burns requiring hospital care are not triaged adequately for the use of medical resources. An efficient mortality predicting scale would not only help in better care to those who will benefit the most but also make it easy to explain to patient's attendants. Among the various tools, revised Baux (rBaux) and modified Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) are two most commonly used scales in developed nations. We proposed this study to analyze the reliability of these two scoring scales in our burn population.

Aim

This study aimed to retrospectively study the two scoring systems and analyze them for their reliability in predicting mortality compared to actual observed mortality in each case.

Materials and Methods

This study was conducted on all burn patients admitted to the intensive care unit of our hospital. Data on their demographic profile, total burn surface area, thickness of burns, inhalational injury, and other comorbidities were collected from files. rBaux and modified ABSI (mABSI) were calculated. The end result in the form of survival or nonsurvival was also recorded. Appropriate statistical analysis using Mann-Whitney U-test, Chi-square test, and receiver operator characteristic curve was done to look for a better scoring system out of the two.

Results

A total of 504 patients were included in the study, out of which 337 were survivors. Female gender was not a risk factor for mortality in our study. The median rBaux score in the survivor group was 100 (80-110) and in nonsurvivor group was 111 (103-123). The median mABSI score in the survivor group was 8 (7-9) and in nonsurvivor group was 10 (9-11). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve shows mABSI having better specificity for predicting mortality. rBAUX, though more sensitive, overestimates mortality than actual observed mortality.

Conclusion

mABSI predicts mortality better than rBaux. A multicentric prospective study is recommended for mABSI to be used as a standard mortality predictor in burns in India.

The Revised Baux Score as a Predictor of Burn Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Mortality following a severe burn is influenced by both patient- and injury-factors, and a number of predictive models have been developed or applied. As there is no consensus on the optimal formula to use, we aimed to investigate the predictive value of the revised Baux score in comparison to other models when determining mortality risk in patients with burn injuries. A systematic review was performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. The review yielded 21 relevant studies. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool quality appraisal checklist was used with many studies classified as "high" quality. All studies assessed the utility of the revised Baux score in comparison to other scoring systems such as the original Baux, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Boston Group/Ryan scores, the Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex model, and the Prognostic Burn Index. There was a range of 48 to 15975 participants per study, with a mean age range of 16 to 52 years old. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the rBaux score ranged from 0.682 to 0.99, with a summary AUC of 0.93 for all included studies (CI 0.91-0.95). This summary value demonstrates that the rBaux equation is a reliable predictor for mortality risk in heterogeneous populations. However, this study also identified that the rBaux equation has a diminished ability to predict mortality risk when applied to patients at both extremes of age, highlighting an important area for future research. Overall, the rBaux equation offers a relatively easy means to quickly assess the mortality risk from burn injury in a broad range of patient populations.

Frailty as a predictor of adverse outcomes in burn patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The identification of new prognostic tools for the prediction of burn patients' morbidity outcomes is necessary. Considering the feasibility of frailty assessment in the clinical setting, we aim to systematically review the literature on the associations between frailty and adverse outcomes in burn patients.

METHODS

Studies were retrieved from MEDLINE (through PubMed), Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase from their inception up to 8 September 2022. Included studies were those that used frailty indices to predict adverse outcomes in burn patients. The quality assessment was done using the National, Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) checklist. The results were synthesized narratively.

RESULTS

We included 18 studies. The sample size among the included studies varied between 42-1615 patients. There were 12 research articles and 6 conference abstracts. Most of the studies were recently published in 2021 and 2022. Seven different frailty measures were evaluated. The following frailty measures were used: Canadian Study for Health and Ageing (CSHA) Clinical Frailty score (CFS), Modified frailty index-11 (mFI-11), Hospital frailty index, FRAIL scale, Emergency General Surgery Frailty Index (EGSFI), and Burn frailty index (BFI). There was only one report regarding a specific frailty index designed for the burn population (BFI). Except for one study (which used mFI-11), all included studies have shown a significant effect between assessing frailty and predicting worse outcomes. The CFS was an independent predictor of mortality among the burn population with high certainty of evidence. We found a significant association for other frailty indices as a predictor of mortality, however, the certainty of evidence regarding those was not high. Eight studies found a positive association between assessing frailty and unfavorable discharge location. There was no association between frailty and increased length of stay.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the postadmission assessment of frailty can be a reliable tool for predicting unfavorable outcomes and mortalities among patients with burn injuries. In addition, future studies with various populations from other countries are required to evaluate the efficacy of frailty indices measurement in order to strengthen the available evidence.

Prevalence of Multidrug-Resistant Organism in ICU Burns Patients at Tertiary Care Hospital

Burns carries a high-risk of mortality and morbidity. This with increased chances of drug-resistant infections makes the management complicated. Hence this study was conducted to find out the prevalence of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) in burns patients admitted to the intensive care unit at a tertiary care hospital. A 2-year retrospective study was conducted where burn patients reporting MDRO were included. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 26 where a P-value < .05 was considered statistically significant. Out of 97 patients, tissue cultures of 65 patients revealed the presence of MDRO in 27 (27.8%) patients. A male predominance (17, 63.0%) was noted with a mean age of 29.0-year-old. Fire burn (15, 55.6%) was reported to be the most common cause of burn with an average of 29.9% of Total Body Surface Area (TBSA) involved. MDR Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the commonest organism reported in 12 (44%) patients. The average length of stay (LOS) was noted to be 11.3 days with a mortality rate of 48.1% (overall, in all MDRO'S infections). Patients who reported MDRO showed a tendency for longer hospitalization with a higher risk of mortality as the TBSA increased. However, in presence of other factors in burns like higher TBSA, inhalation injury and lack of advanced skin substitute these mortality figures, and their association can be debated. Lastly, the implementation of control measures, as basic as hand hygiene, should be partaken to reduce the burden of MDR infections.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH MORTALITY IN SEVERELY BURNED PATIENTS - CROATIAN NATIONAL BURN CENTER REPORT

The authors conducted a single-center retrospective study during the last 6.5 years. The study aimed to describe demographic data of burn patients in the Croatian Burn Center and investigate factors affecting mortality for the first time after the Center was established. The study included 109 severely burned patients with a total body surface area (TBSA) burned ≥20%, admitted to the burn intensive care unit. The relationship between the fatal outcome and age, sex, comorbidity, mechanism of injury, TBSA burned, and inhalation injury was investigated. The mean patient age was 54.50±20.21 years and the mean TBSA burned was 42.48±18.64%, with the mortality rate of 50%. The results demonstrated that patients with 2 or more comorbidities compared with those with no comorbidities had a higher chance of lethal outcome (p<0.0001). With an increase of TBSA by 1%, the odds of lethal outcome are expected to increase by 7% (p<0.0001). Other variables included in the analysis did not show statistical significance. TBSA percentage is a well-known predictor of mortality and numerous studies indicate an association between comorbidities and mortality but there are conflicting results about other demographic factors and injury characteristics.

Predicting Mortality in Burn Patients: Literature Review of Risk Factors for Burn Mortality and Application in Scoring Systems

Despite advances in medical technology, mortality due to burn injuries remains significant. Scoring systems are aimed at allowing physicians to effectively and accurately predict the mortality of a given patient. Patients at a higher risk of death from burns include older patients over the age of 65, high-severity burn, presence of co-morbidities, and presence of inhalation injury. Constructing a burn prediction model also needs its own methodological standards. Hence, choosing a prediction model for predicting burn mortality requires careful analysis of its methodology. Attention towards mortality risk factors should be taken when treating burn patients. Tools such as burn prediction models prove helpful in aiding physicians to accurately and effectively predict a patient's mortality, stratify patient severity, and allocate resources appropriately, especially in settings where resources are scarce, such as natural disasters. Additionally, prediction models are used to monitor patient care and for research purposes.

Acute burn care and outcomes at the Hospital Nacional Guido Valadares (HNGV), Timor-Leste: A 7-year retrospective study

The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology of patients presenting with acute burns and undergoing admission at Hospital Nacional Guido Valadares (HNGV) in Dili, Timor-Leste in the period 2013 to 2019. HNGV is the only tertiary referral hospital in Timor-Leste. This was a retrospective study involving all acute burn patients admitted to the surgical wards of HNGV from 2013 to 2019. The data was collected from patient charts and hospital medical archives. Data were reviewed and analyzed statistically in terms of age, gender, residence, cause, total body surface area (TBSA), burns depth, length of stay (LOS), and mortality. The outcomes were analyzed using logistic regression. Over the 7-year period, there were 288 acute burn patients admitted to the surgical wards of HNGV. Most patients were children (55%), male (65%) and from the capital city of Dili or surrounding areas (59%). The most common cause of burns in children was scalds and the most common cause among adults was flames. Of the admitted patients 59% had burns affecting >10% of the TBSA and 41% had full thickness burns. The median LOS was 17 days (1-143) and the average mortality for admitted burn patients in HNGV was 5.6% (annual mortality 0-17%). The odds ratio for extended LOS was 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.1-3.2) in female compared with male patients. The odds ratio for mortality was 14.6 (95% confidence interval 2.7-80.6) in the older adults when compared with younger adults. Higher TBSA, full thickness burns, and flame burns were also significantly associated with longer LOS and higher mortality. Children and male patients were disproportionately overrepresented among patients admitted to HNGV, while female patients had longer LOS and older adults had more severe injury and a higher risk of mortality. Establishment of a national program for the prevention of burns is essential.

Nutritional Support with Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Burn Patients: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background: In burn patients, the profound effect of nutritional support on improved wound healing and a reduced rate of hospitalization and mortality has been documented. Fish oil as a primary source of omega-3 fatty acids in nutritional support may attenuate the inflammatory response and enhance immune function; however, unclear effects on the improvement of clinical outcomes in burn patients remain. Methods: The systematic literature review was conducted by searching the electronic databases: Cochrane Library, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Scopus to assess the randomized controlled trials of nutritional support with omega-3 fatty acids compared to control diets in patients that presented with burns from any causes. Results: Seven trials were included in this meta-analysis. We found no significant differences in length of stay (LOS) (p = 0.59), mortality (p = 0.86), ventilation days (p = 0.16), gastrointestinal complications—e.g., constipation and diarrhea (p = 0.73)—or infectious complications—e.g., pneumonia and sepsis (p = 0.22)—between the omega-3-fatty-acid-receiving group and the control/other diets group. Conclusions: We did not find a benefit of omega-3 support in reducing the various complications, mortality and LOS in burn patients. Further studies are necessary to find the effect of nutritional support with omega-3 fatty acids over low-fat diets in this population.

Identification of Important Modules and Biomarkers That Are Related to Immune Infiltration Cells in Severe Burns Based on Weighted Gene Co-Expression Network Analysis

Background: Immunosuppression is an important trigger for infection and a significant cause of death in patients with severe burns. Nevertheless, the prognostic value of immune-related genes remains unclear. This study aimed to identify the biomarkers related to immunosuppression in severe burns. Methods: The gene expression profile and clinical data of 185 burn and 75 healthy samples were obtained from the GEO database. Immune infiltration analysis and gene set variation analysis were utilized to identify the disorder of circulating immune cells. A weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was carried out to select immune-related gene modules. Enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction (PPI) network were performed to select hub genes. Next, LASSO and logistic regression were utilized to construct the hazard regression model with a survival state. Finally, we investigated the correlation between high- and low-risk patients in total burn surface area (TBSA), age, and inhalation injury. Results: Gene set variation analysis (GSVA) and immune infiltration analysis showed that neutrophils increased and T cells decreased in severe burns. In WGCNA, four modular differently expressed in burns and controls were related to immune cells. Based on PPI and enrichment analysis, 210 immune-related genes were identified, mainly involved in T-cell inhibition and neutrophil activation. In LASSO and logistic regression, we screened out key genes, including LCK, SKAP1 and GZMB, and LY9. In the ROC analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) of key genes was 0.945, indicating that the key genes had excellent diagnostic value. Finally, we discovered that the key genes were related to T cells, and the regression model performed well when accompanied by TBSA and age. Conclusion: We identified LCK, SKAP1, GZMB, and LY9 as good prognostic biomarkers that may play a role in post-burn immunosuppression against T-cell dysfunction and as potential immunotherapeutic targets for transformed T-cell dysfunction.

Mortality prediction models for severe burn patients: Which one is the best?

BACKGROUND

For prediction of mortality and clinical course, various scoring systems had been developed. We choose four well known burn specific scoring systems and a general scoring system that using in Intensive Care Units. The primary outcome of this study was evaluate the predictive performances of this models and define the optimal one for our patient population.

METHODS

Variables analyzed were age, gender, burn type, total burned surface area (TBSA), total partial thickness burn area, total full thickness burn area, inhalation injuries, mechanical ventilation supports, blood products usage, total scores of Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), revised Baux, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury, Fatality by Longevity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Eval-uation II (APACHE II) score, Measured Extent of burn and Sex (FLAMES) and APACHE II, and their relations with mortality.

RESULTS

In our study, a statistically significant relationship was found with mortality between age, TBSA, full thickness burn percent-age, inhalation injury, burn type, and it was similar to literature. Female gender was found to be a significant risk factor for mortality.

CONCLUSION

We compared several burn mortality scoring systems and their predictional mortality rates. ABSI scores of patients for estimated mortality rates were similar to our mortality rate. Consequently, it was thought that ABSI was included all mortality-re-lated parameters.

Predicting and Estimating Burn Outcomes: An Institutional Analysis of 4622 cases

Advances in burn care have improved patient outcomes, and independently validated indices and predictors of burn outcomes warrant re-evaluation. The purpose of this study is to consolidate predictors of burn outcomes and determine the factors that significantly contribute to length-of-stay (LOS) and mortality. A retrospective review was conducted of all burn patients (n=5778) admitted to a quaternary provincial burn unit from 1973 to 2017. Our inclusion criteria yielded 4622 independent cases. Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were generated, and area-under-receiver-operator-curve (AUROC) analysis was performed. Burn predictors included %TBSA, Baux (classic and revised) index, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), and Ryan score. Primary outcomes were mortality and LOS. Multivariate logistic regression for mortality showed the Baux index to be the best predictor for mortality (OR=1.11, p<0.001). The AUROC for Baux index was 0.95. With regards to LOS, ABSI was the best predictor for LOS (p<0.001). ICU stay, ventilator use, alcoholism, age, significantly associated with increased LOS. Interestingly, hypertension had a protective effect for LOS (p<0.01) and trended towards a protective effect in mortality. Lethal score 50% (LS50) improved over the study period. The regressions show that burn mortality and LOS are best predicted with the Baux index and ABSI, respectively. Hypertension may have a protective effect on burn outcomes and may be attributed to increased perfusion to the periphery. These predictive scores are useful in determining institutional outcomes in burn surgery. Objective benchmarking of improvement in burn care outcomes can be established using LS50 trends.

Risk Factors For Death And Prognosis Value Of Revised Baux Score For Burn Patients With Inhalation Injury

A retrospective study was conducted on 314 burn patients with inhalation injury admitted to the National Burn Hospital during the period 2015-2019. The results showed that adult and male was predominant (81.9% and 77.7%), with burns mostly caused by flame (93.6%) and burn extent of 68.6±24.3% and deep burn area of 44.6±25.2% total body surface area. Rate of required mechanical ventilation patients was 95.22%. Common complications were multiple organ failure (41.9%), pneumonia (29.9%), ARDS (25.5%) and septic shock (23.8%), with a mortality rate of 85.4%. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that burn extent and age were independent risk factors for death of patients with inhalation injury. SMR of rBaux score was 1.01 with AUC of 0.84, Youden index 113, sensitivity 82.09%, specificity 70.21%. The SMR of adult and elderly patients was relatively close to 1 (1 and .97 respectively). In addition, the AUC value for the elderly was highest (.95) followed by adult patients (.84). However, predicting the value of rBaux on children with inhalation injury was quite low (SMR=1.57; AUC = 0.4). There is a need to determine an optimal prognosis score for children with inhalation injury.

Mortality and survival analysis of burn patients admitted in a critical care burn unit, Saudi Arabia

Background

Burn injury is associated with a high mortality risk. Recent epidemiological data on burn injury and mortality rate from Saudi Arabia is lacking.

Objective:

This study aimed to analyze the survival rates and its predictability using the Baux score in patients with burn injury at a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia.

Materials and Methods:

This retrospective study included all patients admitted to the burn unit at King Fahd Hospital of the University, Al Khobar, between March 2014 and February 2020. Patients' burn characteristics and calculated revised Baux scores were collected. The age, burn wound size, type of burn, burn extension, and Baux score of the survivors and non-survivors were compared.

Results:

A total number of 102 patients were included, and their mean age was 24.2 years (range: 9 months to 78 years). The mean affected total body surface area was 26.4%. Ninety patients (88%) suffered from flame/scald burn. The mortality rate was 17.6% (18 patients); all these patients had flame burns. No patient with a revised Baux score ≥110 survived (n = 14; 77% of the total deaths), while there was no mortality at score <36. Inhalational injuries were reported in 18 patients, of which 13 (72%) died. Patients with patent airway and no inhalation injury were 19 times more likely to survive than those with a compromised airway (P < 0.001). In terms of the depth of burn, partial thickness increased the likeliness of survival by 10 times compared with full thickness (P < 0.003).

Conclusion:

Inhalational injury and burn size were the most prognostic factors of burn injury in this study. As all cases of mortality were from flame burns, regulation on flammable materials and safety measures should be promoted to the public.

A proof-of-concept study on mortality prediction with machine learning algorithms using burn intensive care data

INTRODUCTION

Burn injuries are a common traumatic injury. Large burns have high mortality requiring intensive care and accurate mortality predictions. To assess if machine learning (ML) could improve predictions, ML algorithms were tested and compared with the original and revised Baux score.

METHODS

Admission data and mortality outcomes were collected from patients at Uppsala University Hospital Burn Centre from 2002 to 2019. Prognostic variables were selected, ML algorithms trained and predictions assessed by analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Comparison was made with Baux scores using DeLong test.

RESULTS

A total of 17 prognostic variables were selected from 92 patients. AUCs in leave-one-out cross-validation for a decision tree model, an extreme boosting model, a random forest model, a support-vector machine (SVM) model and a generalised linear regression model (GLM) were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72-0.94), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1), 0.92 (95% CI = 0.84-1) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94), respectively. AUCs for the Baux score and revised Baux score were 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75-0.95) and 0.84 (95% CI = 0.74-0.94). No significant differences were observed when comparing ML algorithms with Baux score and revised Baux score. Secondary variable selection was made to analyse model performance.

CONCLUSION

This proof-of-concept study showed initial credibility in using ML algorithms to predict mortality in burn patients. The sample size was small and future studies are needed with larger sample sizes, further variable selections and prospective testing of the algorithms.

LAY SUMMARY

Burn injuries are one of the most common traumatic injuries especially in countries with limited prevention and healthcare resources. To treat a patient with large burns who has been admitted to an intensive care unit, it is often necessary to assess the risk of a fatal outcome. Physicians traditionally use simplified scores to calculate risks. One commonly used score, the Baux score, uses age of the patient and the size of the burn to predict the risk of death. Adding the factor of inhalation injury, the score is then called the revised Baux score. However, there are a number of additional causes that can influence the risk of fatal outcomes that Baux scores do not take into account. Machine learning is a method of data modelling where the system learns to predict outcomes based on previous cases and is a branch of artificial intelligence. In this study we evaluated several machine learning methods for outcome prediction in patients admitted for burn injury. We gathered data on 93 patients at admission to the intensive care unit and our experiments show that machine learning methods can reach an accuracy comparable with Baux scores in calculating the risk of fatal outcomes. This study represents a proof of principle and future studies on larger patient series are required to verify our results as well as to evaluate the methods on patients in real-life situations.

Measurements Of Injury-Related Outcomes: Statistical And Analytical Data From Albania

Numerous burn mortality indicators and prognostic scores are necessary to classify with priorities severely burned patients in order to predict outcome. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate mortality predictors on admission, in order to determine Lethal Area 50 and to validate burn prognostic scores. The study is retrospective, clinical and analytical. The data utilized were accessed by investigating the medical charts of 5033 patients hospitalized with severe burns within the Intensive Care Unit of the Service of Burns in Tirana, Albania over the period 1992-2019. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using PSS 23 software. Statistical significance is defined as p<0.05. The incidence rate of hospitalization of patients with severe burns initially increased from 4.1 to 7.9 persons per 100,000 population/year in the period 1992 to 1999, followed by a decrease from 7.9 to 4.8 in 2019. Mortality was 12.2% and the average burn crude death rate was 0.7 patients per 100,000 population/year. Lethal Area 50 for the second decade (2010-2019) was 82.2%. All tested burn prognostic scores had good predictive values. In addition to the commonly used outcome predictors such as age, burn size and inhalation burn, we concluded that additional determinants like depth of burn and etiology of burns determined an unfavorable outcome. Fatality risk was 4 times higher in patients with full-thickness burns, 2.6 times higher in patients with flame burns, and 4 times higher in patients with inhalation injury.

Plasmin drives burn-induced systemic inflammatory response syndrome

Severe injuries, such as burns, provoke a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) that imposes pathology on all organs. Simultaneously, severe injury also elicits activation of the fibrinolytic protease plasmin. While the principal adverse outcome of plasmin activation in severe injury is compromised hemostasis, plasmin also possesses proinflammatory properties. We hypothesized that, following a severe injury, early activation of plasmin drives SIRS. Plasmin activation was measured and related to injury severity, SIRS, coagulopathy, and outcomes prospectively in burn patients who are not at risk of hemorrhage. Patients exhibited early, significant activation of plasmin that correlated with burn severity, cytokines, coagulopathy, and death. Burn with a concomitant, remote muscle injury was employed in mice to determine the role of plasmin in the cytokine storm and inflammatory cascades in injured tissue distant from the burn injury. Genetic and pharmacologic inhibition of plasmin reduced the burn-induced cytokine storm and inflammatory signaling in injured tissue. These findings demonstrate (a) that severe injury-induced plasmin activation is a key pathologic component of the SIRS-driven cytokine storm and SIRS-activated inflammatory cascades in tissues distant from the inciting injury and (b) that targeted inhibition of plasmin activation may be effective for limiting both hemorrhage and tissue-damaging inflammation following injury.

Potential for Machine Learning in Burn Care

INTRODUCTION

Burn-related injuries are a leading cause of morbidity across the globe. Accurate assessment and treatment have been demonstrated to reduce the morbidity and mortality. This essay explores the forms of artificial intelligence to be implemented the field of burns management to optimise the care we deliver in the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK.

METHODS

Machine Learning methods which predict or classify are explored. This includes linear and logistic regression, artificial neural networks, deep learning, and decision tree analysis.

DISCUSSION

Utilizing Machine Learning in burns care holds potential from prevention, burns assessment, predicting mortality and critical care monitoring to healing time. Establishing a regional or national Machine Learning group would be the first step towards the development of these essential technologies.

CONCLUSION

The implementation of machine learning technologies will require buy-in from the NHS health boards, with significant implications with cost of investment, implementation, employment of machine learning teams and provision of training to medical professionals.

The Predictive Capacity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) Score in Burn Patients

Advances in burn care continues to improve survival rates and patient outcomes. There are several burn prognostic tools used to predict mortality and outcomes; however, none include patient comorbidities. We used the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score as a surrogate measure for comorbidities, and evaluated its role in predicting mortality and outcomes in adult burn patients undergoing surgery. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected from a single burn center in the United States, which was comprised of 183 patients. We evaluated the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score as an independent predictor of mortality and outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, mechanical ventilator (MV) days, and complications. We compared the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score to other prognostic models which included the revised Baux score, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury, and the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index. Our results demonstrated that the revised Baux and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores could be used to determine the mortality risk in adult burn patients. The revised Baux was the best predictor of mortality, ICU LOS, and MV days, while the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index was the best predictor of total LOS.

Clinical outcome and comparison of burn injury scoring systems in burn patient in Indonesia

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to explore and compare the performance of four burn injury scoring systems in Indonesia. In a retrospective study, data of all burn patients admitted to the emergency centre (EC) were collected. The following clinical outcome and four burn injury scoring systems were used to assess each patient: Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury (BOBI), the Ryan model, and revised Baux Score.

Methods

From April 2017 to April 2018, clinical outcome and burn injury score for every admitted patient were calculated to evaluate burn prognosis. Demographic information, ABSI score, full-thickness total body surface area (TBSA), overall TBSA, hospital stay, and inhalation injury were noted for analysis. Discriminative ability and goodness-of-fit of the prediction models were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Hosmer–Lemeshow tests.

Results

We included 72 patients (mean age: 40.79 ± 16.30 years, average TBSA: 23.59% ± 24.84). Only 1 (1.4%) of them was diagnosed with inhalation injury. Mortality rate was 25%. Deceased patients had significantly higher mean age, %TBSA, and number of inhalation injuries. The ABSI model with sensitivity was 81.6, specificity was 92.5, accuracy was 87.3 and under the Receiver Operator Characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.93 (SE = 0.03).

Conclusions

The best estimation of predicted mortality was obtained with the ABSI model.

Prognosis value of revised Baux score among burn patients in developing country

The aims of this study was to determine prognosis value of revised Baux score for burn patients in developing country. A retrospective study was conducted on all burn hospitalized patients at National Burn Hospital, Hanoi, Viet Nam during a period from 01/1/2015 to 31/12/2019. Collected criteria included age, burn extent, inhalation injury, death or survive, Baux and revised Baux score of each patients. AUC and SMR was compared between two scores. Prognosis value of revised Baux score was also classified according to age groups. The results showed that AUC of revided Baux score was significantly higher than that of Baux score (0.96 vs. 0.95; p=0.001). SMR of revised Baux score was closer to 1 than that of Baux score (1.03 vs. 1.14 respectively). For revised Baux score, AUC was highest in adult patients (0.98±0.01) followed by elderly and pediatric patients. In addition, SMR was 0.99 in adult group, 0.77 in elderly patient and was 4.36 in pediatric patients. In conclusion, the revised Baux score is more accurate than the Baux score but should only be recommended to apply in prognosis for adult and elderly burn patients in developing country.

The analysis and accuracy of mortality prediction scores in burn patients admitted to the intensive care burn unit (ICBU)

Background

To date, multiple scoring systems have been utilised in predicting outcomes in burn patients. The aim of this study is to determine the accuracy of three established scoring systems used for burn patients admitted to the intensive care unit and to determine the risk factors associated with poor outcomes.

Methods

A total of 211 patients who were admitted to the ICBU in a tertiary care centre in Kuwait from January 2017 to December 2019 were analysed retrospectively. Data were collected using patient medical records. The FLAMES, BOBI and revised Baux scores were calculated, and the survivor and non-survivor scores of patients were analysed to determine the sensitivity, specificity and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of the different scoring modalities.

Results

The majority of the analysed population were male patients (165/211) and the most common mechanism of burns was flame burns (166/211). Most of the patients admitted to the ICBU survived (188/211). Female gender was associated with a higher mortality rate, whilst inhalational injury and co-morbidities were not associated with a higher mortality rate. The revised Baux score had a sensitivity value of 96% and 90% specificity. The BOBI score had a sensitivity of 91% and 76% specificity. The FLAMES score had a sensitivity of 96% and the highest specificity of 99%. All 3 scores had AUC values exceeding 90%.

Conclusion

Statistically, FLAMES score had the highest accuracy of predicting outcomes in burn patients, however all three scores demonstrated acceptable predictive rates when it comes to practical application, permitting the use of either one of the studied scores with satisfactory prognostic outcomes.

Serum albumin concentration on admission as a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients with burn injuries

Efforts have been made to determine new predictors of morbidity and mortality in patients with severe burn injuries. This prospective cohort study aimed to determine the association of serum albumin concentration on admission and renal failure, pulmonary infection, sepsis, and death in patients with burn injuries. We included 141 patients, aged >18 years, who were admitted to our institution between April and August 2018. Among them, 59.1% were male and 83.8% had burns covering <20% of the body surface area. Scalds were the most common cause of burns (34.8%). Twelve patients died, of whom eight (66.6%) had an Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) ≥8. Patients with serum albumin ≤2.2 g/dL had a higher mortality rate than those with >2.2 g/dL (odds ratios [OR]: 18.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.9-70.8). Serum albumin ≤2.2 g/dL was also significantly associated with pulmonary infection (OR: 13.1, 95%CI: 3.8-45.7), renal failure (OR: 30.2, 95% CI: 7.4-122.3), and sepsis (OR: 16.9, 95% CI: 4.9-58.3). Serum albumin concentration cut-points and ABSIs were determined to be death predictors using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). The AUCs with albumin or ABSI alone were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87-0.96), respectively. The AUC including both albumin and ABSI was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90-0.98), indicating that the combination is a better death predictor than either measure alone. We confirmed that burn patients with a serum albumin concentration ≤2.2 g/dL on admission have substantially increased morbidity and mortality.

Comparison of prognostic models for burn patients: A retrospective nationwide registry study

BACKGROUND

Prognostic burn index (PBI) is a unique model utilized to predict mortality of burn patients in Japan. In contrast, other prediction models are rarely used in Japan, and their accuracy and predictive value are unknown. The present study aimed to compare commonly used burn prediction models and determine the appropriate model for mortality prediction in Japanese burn patients.

METHODS

Japanese burn patients registered in the nationwide burn registry of Japanese Society for Burn Injury between April 1, 2011 and March 31, 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic performance of PBI was compared with Baux score, revised Baux score, abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI), Ryan score and Belgian outcome in burn injury score (BOBI). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 7911 acute burn patients. The overall mortality rate was 10.7%, the median age was 52 (interquartile range, 26-72) years, and the median % total body surface area was 7% (interquartile range, 3%-17%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for PBI, Baux score, ABSI, revised Baux score, Ryan score, and BOBI were 0.940 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.931-0.948), 0.943 (95% CI: 0.934-0.951; p=0.002), 0.945 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.058), 0.946 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.002), 0.859 (95% CI: 0.846-0.870; p<0.001), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.885-0.905; p<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although the performance of PBI was good, it was not superior to the Baux score, revised Baux score, and ABSI. These three scores have a high prognostic accuracy. Hence, they are considered as alternative burn prognostic scores in Japan. The Baux score was an optimal prognostic model for patients with burns in Japan.

The Effect of β-Blockers for Burn Patients on Clinical Outcomes: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects and safety of β-blockers in hospitalized patients with burns.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. A broad search was conducted to identify all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing β-blockers to control in hospitalized patients with burns. The primary outcome was 3-month all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were clinical patient-relevant end points. We subgrouped results by children/adults and burn severity. Risk of bias was assessed using the individual domain approach.

RESULTS

Four RCTs reported in 11 publications were included. Primary outcome of mortality was assessed in children (2 trials, n = 424) and adults (2 trials, n = 148) with severe burns. No significant difference was found between propranolol and control for mortality (risk ratio [RR] = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.48-1.39, 4 trials with broad confidence intervals in adults and children), sepsis (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.46-1.43, 2 trials), and survivors' length of stay (absolute mean difference = 2.53, 95% CI = -2.58-7.63, 3 trials). There was no significant difference in bradycardia (RR = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.77-2.3, 2 trials), hypotension (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.73-2.17, 3 trials), or cardiac arrhythmia (RR: 2.97, 95% CI: 0.12-71.87, 1 trial). The evidence was graded as very low certainty, due to trial's internal risk of bias, imprecision, and possible selective reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

No sufficient evidence was found to support or refute an advantage for β-blocker use in children or adults after burns. Additional studies are needed to create a consensus and formulate practice guidelines on the optimal β-blocker to use, indications for initiation, and duration of treatment.